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[ The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: 5/25/04 ]

Tuesday 5.25.04
As the Bush drop gets serious, Isakson pitches himself as the man who can pull in the extra votes

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Tom Baxter
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President Bush's falling poll numbers are prompting the development of an interesting thread in Georgia's race for the U.S. Senate.

Exactly who voters want won't be sorted out for a while, but already it's clear that the two national parties have their hearts set on the same thing: a Georgia candidate who will pay his or her own way.

With the president's coattails getting shorter, the GOP is looking to Georgia for a candidate who'll be a secure choice able to go after the independent voters that Bush may be losing, Johnny Isakson has begun arguing. That may be critical to the state GOP's hope of taking control of the state House of Representatives, he's making sure House Republicans understand.

Last week, before the brouhaha over abortion on foreign military bases, former state GOP chairman Rusty Paul -- a Fulton County co-chair for Isakson -- sent a memo to "conservative leaders." It makes some interesting points. No. 1, it mentions Democrat Cliff Oxford as a threat, rather than U.S. Rep. Denise Majette, because of Oxford's ability to throw much of his own money into the race.

There is the implication that, with Bush numbers falling, Republican money will have priorities other than Georgia in November -- but that an Isakson win would free the national party of any such burden here.

What follows are a few excerpts from the Paul memo:

"With Senate races getting tighter than expected for our candidates in several states, such as Colorado, Illinois, Florida, North Carolina and Oklahoma, winning in Georgia may play a significant role in our ability to retain control of the Senate. This makes it essential for us to nominate the candidate most capable of winning the seat in November. . . .

"If Oxford is nominated and makes good on his pledge to spend $4 million of his own money, in addition to what he will raise, it is almost certain that Johnny Isakson is the only Republican candidate with the fund-raising muscle to go up against the likely Democrat nominee. . . .

"The long-term importance of controlling the [U.S.] Senate is too high for conservatives to spend the next two months squabbling about tangential issues in a primary battle that will only leave us weaker as we move toward November. If we make the wrong choice, we face a very real possibility of losing this seat."

An incentive for two Republican candidates in the U.S. Senate race to spend a bit of money on TV

On the related topic of abortion, Herman Cain and Mac Collins can expect to spend the next two weeks selling themselves even harder to the pro-life movement. On Monday, we talked to Dan Becker, director of the Georgia Right To Life PAC, whose group claims a pipeline to 250,000 households in the state.

Becker said his group will sit down and mull over the question of whom to endorse on Saturday, June 5. An announcement will be made the next Monday. "It may very well result in an endorsement of Cain or Collins -- if the situation warrants that it is necessary to avoid an outright Isakson win in the primary," he said in an e-mail to us.

So we called Becker. He confirmed that the pro-life movement is split between Cain and Collins. (Isakson, we might add, still holds on to some of that vote as well.) What will be considered in GRTL's decision? Incumbency is one factor, Becker admitted. That would favor Collins.

But potency may mean more than anything else. In the end, Becker said his group must consider which of those two candidates has the best chance of pushing Isakson into a Republican primary runoff. He'll spend the next two weeks looking for statistical evidence.

"Right now, we don't find a significant difference between the two -- until a poll proves otherwise," Becker said.

(Last week, the National Right to Life group endorsed Collins. That's no guarantee that the Georgia group will do likewise. Keep in mind that the two separate organizations are at odds with each other over whether abortion should be permitted in cases of rape or incest. The Georgia group says no.)

Reed to Republicans in Cheeseland: It's time to put up your knitting and close those stamp books

Ralph Reed tapped Republican concern over Bush during a Sunday prayer breakfast up in Wisconsin, one of the battleground states. Even back in December, the former Georgia GOP chair was telling then-giddy Republicans that '04 would be a "one- or two-point race." These days, his message is penetrating more effectively. According to the next day's La Crosse Tribune, Reed "encouraged attendees to rearrange their lives and 'pray like you've never prayed. Work like you've never worked. . . . Give up your hobbies and free time to make sure [Bush] stays in office another four years.' "

Just like Isakson Republicans, certain Democrats in Georgia now say "electability" becomes the key issue

Bush's poll numbers were coloring every other race in the nation on Monday. Including the Democratic side of the U.S. Senate race in Georgia.

Cliff Oxford, the most recent entry, was at the state Capitol to tout the endorsements of state Rep. Tyrone Brooks and state Sen. Sam Zamarripa. Then it was on to Macon and beyond.

Oxford's first hurdle, of course, is to get past U.S. Rep. Denise Majette in the July 20 Democratic primary. How does he do that? By persuading the state's African-American political leaders that Bush's falling numbers make the Senate race in Georgia an achievable goal -- if Democrats can field the right candidate in November.

"There's a lot of sophistication in the electorate this year regarding the capacity to win," said Oxford's campaign manager, Kevin Ross.

Ross said Oxford's message on the outsourcing of jobs should register with black voters.

Oxford, who is expected to formally launch his campaign in a few weeks in his native Waycross, stressed his South Georgia roots and humble upbringing during his brief remarks to reporters. The 41-year-old Cobb County resident made millions when he sold the computer services company, STI Knowledge, that he and his then-wife founded.

You have to wonder if Republican phone banks might be put into play tonight

Believe it or not, certain Democrats with an eye on Georgia's next gubernatorial race aren't pleased to see George W. Bush's decline in the polls. If John Kerry wins the White House in November, the thinking goes, then '06 will be a backlash year tipped against Democrats.

Despite a lackluster legislative record coming out of his first 18 months, an incumbent Sonny Perdue will be harder to defeat than many suppose, one Democratic strategist told us last week.

Why? Republican access to money is one big reason. But another is that Perdue has better populist instincts than Georgians are used to seeing in a governor. In '03, while his agenda was doing a crash and burn, Perdue was winning space in People magazine by stepping on a set of scales.

Tonight, Perdue will open the Governor's Mansion to 200 friends and relatives of 16-year-old Diana DeGarmo, the Snellville finalist on "American Idol."

He signed a proclamation Monday declaring Tuesday -- the day of the big face-off -- as "Dial for Diana DeGarmo Day." The statement calls on all Georgians to show support for Diana by watching the call-in show that evening and casting a vote for her by telephone.

The governor isn't above a bit of party-hopping. On Sunday, he pulled an impromptu drop-in at the Buckhead home of Atlanta record and film baron Dallas Austin. He and Austin reportedly talked about Georgia's entertainment industry. But we know the governor was just there to meet T-Boz.

On killing two birds with one Glock, and on a conservative posting to the non-Fox cable news network

Chuck Clay, the 6th District congressional candidate, held a Georgia Club fund-raiser in Cobb County on Monday that netted him $50,000 and the endorsement of U.S. Rep. Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.). More interesting to us was the presence of former congressman Bob Barr and Robert Glock, managing director of the firearms company. The Barr and Glock pairing continues today at a Cobb County skeet-shooting fund-raiser for Republican state senate candidate Craig Dowdy.

Barr has been traveling in some oddly disparate circles lately. Last week, he testified before the U.S. House Judiciary Committee against an extension of the Bush administration's Patriot Act. On Monday, CNN announced that he'll be a regular contributor to the news network.

Staff writers Jim Tharpe and the Associated Press contributed to this article.

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