Gwinnett County leaders plan to tap a variety of sources to pay for a minor-league baseball stadium for the Atlanta Braves. But an AJC analysis shows some projected income amounts are so fluid that it's difficult to know whether taxpayers will have to pay more than the $12 million they've already surrendered to the $45 million stadium.

The county borrowed $33 million this month, and it's obligated to pay back an average of $2.59 million annually over the next 30 years, for a total of more than $77.5 million.

The county will get a portion of that money directly from the stadium. The rest will come from two related sources: a rental car tax imposed specifically for this ballpark, and county money, funneled through the Gwinnett Convention and Visitors Bureau.

Given the uncertain nature of some of these revenues, estimates show the county could end up with more than each average payment, or it could be significantly short.

Because the county is obligated to make the payments, county leaders would have to pay the shortfall out of the general budget. Though it's likely the county can find any necessary money somewhere in an $856 million operating budget, county leaders promised Wall Street lenders that they would raise property taxes across the county if necessary.

Most of the money generated at the stadium — such as ticket sales and concessions — will go to the Braves organization, which is responsible for none of the debt.

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COUNTY'S STADIUM REVENUE

• RENT

$250,000

In each of the first five years, paid by the Braves.

Adjusted every five years, based on Consumer Price Index. Estimated average annual revenue over 30 years, based on 3 percent increases in CPI: $365,000

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• TICKET FEE

$400,000 to $468,000

Braves will pay the county $1 for every ticket sold, with a $400,000 minimum. The high end of projections in a county-financed feasibility study by a consultant amount to 468,000 tickets sold.

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• PARKING

$200,000

County splits net parking revenue with the Braves, who will operate the lots. Estimate is based on projected attendance and three ticket-holders per car being charged $3 per car.

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• NAMING RIGHTS

This is the biggest variable. The Braves get $350,000 a year; the county gets the rest. Estimates range from a total deal worth $450,000 to $1 million annually.

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• COUNTY EVENTS

County can use stadium for 10 days per year, subject to the Braves' approval. County reimburses the Braves for operations and cleanup on those days. If the county charges for admission, it would likely be to cover those expenses. Braves keep all concession sales even on those days.

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OTHER REVENUE

• RENTAL CAR TAX

The estimates for this newly imposed tax, which took effect April 1, are based on the county's analysis of total sales at rental car facilities last year. The county collects such information when issuing business licenses.

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• GCVB CONTRIBUTION

The Convention and Visitors Bureau gets its money

from the county, which collects a hotel-motel tax to pay off

debt on the Gwinnett Arena and to underwrite the GCVB

operation. The agency, which manages the arena, also gets money from that county-owned venue's profits."This is obviously a $400,000 liability that we would have to figure out how to pay for," GCVB Chariman Richard Tucker said.

It will also have to figure out how to pay into a $500,000 minimum maintenance fund to repair or refurbish the stadium, though this isn't required until 2013."We don't anticipate there being a need for five years," Tucker said.

County taxpayers have already contributed $5 million to buy the land for the stadium and contributed an additional $7 million toward construction. The Board of Commissioners took the $12 million from surplus recreation-fund money that had already been collected through property taxes.

BOTTOM LINE:

• AMOUNT DUE: $2.59 million

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• AMOUNT BEING RAISED: $1.95 million to $2.59 million

Sources used in compiling this information: Documents obtained under Georgia's Open Records Act from Gwinnett County government and the Gwinnett Convention and Visitors Bureau, interviews with county leaders, and experts in sports economics and marketing.

Note: All figures are annual.