Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates again
Reports on economic growth, oil set for release Wednesday


The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 04/30/08

Stop right there. If it were up to Gene Henssler, president of money management firm G.W. Henssler & Associates in Kennesaw, the central bank would end its rate-cutting campaign.

Now.

INDICATORS OUT WEDNESDAY
• The Fed is expected to cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter point.
• The government reports on economic growth in the first three months of the year. Experts predicts GDP rose at a dismal 0.2 percent pace.
• A weekly report is due on oil and gasoline inventories -- if they are down, look for prices to go up ... again.

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Despite views like his, another quarter point will likely be clipped from short-term interest rates when the Federal Reserve's elite committee votes Wednesday afternoon. Debate about Fed action has grown more intense amid swirling reports of economic distress.

Housing prices fell at a double-digit pace in February, and consumer confidence hit a five-year low, according to economic surveys released Tuesday. On Wednesday, the government reports on first-quarter economic growth, which is expected to be anemic at best, and oil inventories, which could send gas prices still higher.

But Henssler argues that the Fed needs more time to judge how well its strategy has worked so far. A pause in rate-cutting might also allow the huge tax rebates to arrive in consumer mailboxes and — says Henssler — be spent in ways that spark growth.

"The Fed doesn't have to do anything to encourage growth in the economy from here on out," he said.

Yet in many corners of the economy — especially real estate — the importance of the Fed's decision could be exaggerated, argued Emory Morsberger, chairman of the Morsberger Group, which specializes in "redevelopment" of properties such as City Hall East.

Many lenders fear being burned, shutting out some potential homebuyers and crimping business plans, he said.

"It doesn't matter how low interest rates are, if no one is making loans," he said. "Our company is pushing forward, but with one foot on the gas and one foot on the brake."

The Fed's mandate includes two goals that sometimes conflict: controlling inflation and encouraging growth.

In September, the Fed gave priority to fueling growth. Since then, the benchmark rate — the marker for many business loans, credit card payments and home equity lines — has been slashed from 5.25 percent to 2.25 percent.

On Wednesday, the Fed is expected to ratchet rates down to 2 percent. But it could also release a statement making inflation once again its main concern.

In metro Atlanta, the Fed's dilemma is mirrored: Some businesses want short-term rates to keep sliding. Others are anxious for the Fed to slip into inflation-fighting mode.

John Wieland, founder and chairman of John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods, worries that further cuts might stoke inflation.

"We might solve a problem today but create a bigger problem down the road — and the problems today are big enough," he said.

In general, the housing sector benefits from lower rates. But mortgage rates don't always echo Fed action since they are pegged to long-term rates that rise when investors fear inflation.

Fed cuts have hardly mattered to slumping home sales, Wieland said. "We have had sharp drops in short-term rates and almost no drop in long-term mortgage rates."

Yet short-term relief does matter, said Steve Palmer, chief financial officer of Bowen Family Homes.

Lower rates ease the pain for builders forced to hold on to homes longer than they planned, said Palmer, who is also president of the Greater Atlanta Home Builders Association.

But if the Fed moved to control prices, mortgage rates might fall — and sales get a boost, he said. "I think the builders have done their part, repricing their houses to become more affordable."

The Fed sees housing as a key piece of the economic puzzle. Its woes have been a drag on growth: Thousands of jobs have been lost, homeowners have been hamstrung in taking money from their houses, and bad mortgages have tainted financial markets.

Economists agree the economy is struggling, but how much? Estimates dramatically differ.

As the Fed lowers rates, borrowing gets cheaper for companies and consumers. But for savers, a low rate means trouble: It erodes returns from bonds and savings. And by making U.S. investments less desirable, it undermines the value of the dollar.

That makes many imports more costly.

The dropping dollar also sends investors scrambling for more profitable places to park money — one reason that prices of commodities from gold to oil to cocoa have been rising. That trend — also fed by global demand — has pushed prices higher on many consumer items.

"That will help us make more money on commodities, but it's not the best thing for the economy," said Peter Miralles, president of Atlanta Wealth Consultants, a financial planning and investment firm.

Yet the other side of the coin is that the falling buck makes U.S. products ever-more attractive overseas.

Every dip of the dollar adds to the buying power of Europeans, said Stan Bressner, president and founder of Winston-based Alum-A-Lift Inc., which makes customized lifting devices.

"Our exports to France are increasing, to Italy and even in Spain. To the extent that the interest rate reflects a lower dollar, that would be good."

At some businesses, the Fed's dilemma is their own.

At a community bank, lower rates squeeze profit margins, said M. Lauch McKinnon, president and chief executive of Atlanta-based Rockbridge Commercial Bank.

"On the other hand, it is good for our customers. It decreases their costs, and we are in business to improve the finances of our clients and this does."

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