A perfect storm is brewing in Georgia's work force. The percentage of the state's population ages 55 to 64 is growing (from 8.6 percent in 1998 to 12.2 percent in 2007), while the percentage of people younger than 24 is shrinking. At the same time, Georgia's economy is expanding. This means there will be fewer entrants into the job market at the same time that older workers will be retiring.
Experts predict massive labor shortages nationwide, particularly in industries that have high percentages of workers age 55 and older.
Photos by LEITA COWART/Special
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| Priscilla Smith (back), director of the Early Childhood Care and Education Department at Gwinnett Technical College, observes student Dezirée Mattocks work with youngsters Bryan McAusland (from left), Haley Post and C.J. McGhee. Smith said the phone 'starts ringing off the hook' every June as employers seek graduates of the program.
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| Tina Cummings (from left), surgical technology program director and instructor at Coosa Valley Technical College, talks with students Chasity Leatherwood and Hannah Castens about the proper handling of instruments and tubing during surgery.
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| Respiratory care technology students Jennifer Hushey (left) and Melinda Milsap practice chest compressions on a dummy during a CPR class at Coosa Valley Technical College in Rome.
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"If things continue along the same trajectories that we're seeing now, we're going to see major work-force challenges in the future," said Michael Thurmond, commissioner of the Georgia Department of Labor. "We're already seeing signs of a major demographic shift in the public sector. There's a constant drain of people retiring. It used to take 10 to 15 years to get to a high-level management position in government agencies; now it takes eight or nine years.
"Knowing this, we've already strengthened our management-training function at the [Labor Department]."
If there is any silver lining to the country's slowing economy and Georgia's surplus of labor in 2008, Thurmond said, "it's that it is giving us time to know the trends and develop new policies to meet the challenges ahead. We have to be proactive."
"It pays to know the trends," agreed John Lawrence, Labor Department assistant director of work force information and analysis. "Every problem presents opportunities. Future workers, current workers and business owners who follow the trends and make adjustments will be prepared. The information is there."
In 2007, the Labor Department, AARP Georgia and the Georgia Budget and Policy Institute partnered to publish "White Collar, Blue Collar, Gray Hair: The Changing Composition of Georgia's Workforce." The detailed report combined employment, census and other data to make employment projections for 2004 to 2014 and to scrutinize occupations and industries to see where the greatest needs would be.
According to the report, Georgia's service sector will continue to grow through 2014, while manufacturing will decline.
"The four service sectors projected to have the most growth are: health care and social assistance (32.2 percent); leisure and hospitality (26.3 percent); education services (25.1 percent); and other nongovernment services
(20.6 percent)," said Yolanda Hallas, associate state director, community outreach, AARP Georgia.
More job openings "is good news for younger workers and older workers who want to work and need to work past 65," Hallas said. "We see great opportunities out there for young people, but they may want to focus their attention on particular fields."
For companies, the issue will be to devise employee incentives and policies (such as flex time or telecommuting) that will attract and retain older workers. Educational institutions need to develop programs to train and retrain workers for high-demand and high-growth industries.
"If we all take into account these trends, then the storm doesn't have to be a tsunami," Hallas said. "We've been working with the Atlanta Regional Commission, the chambers of commerce and other groups, trying to get the word out about a work-force assessment tool that can help companies assess their current and future work-force needs." (See AARP's Workforce Assessment Tool.)
A technical approach
The Technical College System of Georgia (formerly the Department of Technical and Adult Education) has been collecting data, too.
"I have on my desk the 2008 Occupational Needs Asssessment, a 500- to 600-page document we use in our program planning," said Teresa Resch, executive director for academic affairs for the Technical College System of Georgia.
Georgia's population is projected to grow by 34 percent from 2000 to 2015. Resch can foresee that a growing and aging population is going to require more health care and social services.
"We already have 44,000 students in our nursing and allied health programs and will need more," she said.
Nursing and many allied health care fields already are experiencing shortages.
Four years ago, Coosa Valley Technical College in Rome built a 53,000-square-foot allied health care building, which houses two dozen programs, including radiation therapy, vascular sonography, nuclear medicine imaging and respiratory therapy. The college plans to add medical laboratory technology and gerontology specialist programs.
"Not every school can offer this breadth of health care programs, but we are fortunate to be at the center of the Atlanta-Birmingham-Chattanooga triangle, which gives us access to multiple clinical sites and future employers for our students," said Frank Pharr, dean of academic affairs and health at Coosa Valley Tech. "You need to think outside the box and plan regionally for these kind of programs, because each one must be accredited by its own governing body."
The programs also require expensive lab equipment, low faculty-to-student ratios and clinical settings where students can practice their skills before becoming certified.
"The clinical settings are a bottleneck. We have agreements with 150 health care facilities, ranging from Chattanooga to Macon and Birmingham to Gainesville," Pharr said.
Finding faculty in all technical fields is another challenge, because most people can earn more money by using their skills than by teaching them. Still, Coosa Valley Tech is meeting community demand with new programs in avionics/aviation, criminal justice, firefighter technology and culinary arts.
"Our reason for being is work-force development. Everyone in the technical system is working together to form a coherent plan on where best to place programs and use resources," he said.
"We look at population trends and industry demands in deciding what programs to start or expand," Resch said. "We know that there will be a need for early child care programs, with more mothers going into the work force, and that, with a growing population, we'll need more law-enforcement officers. We plan to start six new law-enforcement academies."
The Technical College System of Georgia provides short-term training (two-year degrees or less) for many of Georgia's 50 most in-demand occupations, including customer service representatives; truck drivers; child care workers; food service and culinary jobs; law enforcement officers; administrative assistants; and the skilled building trades, such as plumbers, electricians and welders.
More global manufacturing, construction and the need to maintain America's infrastructure have created a desperate need for welders, said Byron Hicks, welding instructor at Atlanta Technical College. He's seen starting salaries jump from $10 to $12 an hour to $15 to $16 in recent years.
"An experienced welder can make $25 to $35 an hour in a heartbeat in a wide choice of settings. We need to let young people know that they can make a great living with this skill," he said.
The average age of a welder is 54, and there will be a shortage of 200,000 workers by 2010, the American Welding Society estimates.
Other skilled trades report similar shortages. "We need to let people know about the enormous job opportunities here," Hicks said.
Little folks, big job
Georgia will need plumbers and electricians in greater numbers, Priscilla Smith acknowledged, "but all of those workers start out as children. If we can start them off with a great foundation, it's going to be better for everyone," she said.
As director of Gwinnett Technical College's Early Childhood Care and Education Department, Smith knows her students will find jobs.
"Every June, the phone starts ringing off the hook with elementary schools, child care centers and pre-K programs wanting to hire our graduates," she said.
The department is the fastest-growing program at the college; student enrollment has climbed from 11 in 2003 to more than 300 students today.
"We get both recent high school grads and older people who always wanted to teach," she said.
Students learn the "science" of teaching in the classroom and see the vocation's "art" in the
D. Scott Hudgens Jr. Early Education Center, a model child care center for the community and learning lab on campus. A larger space and an additional instructor this summer will allow the program to keep growing.
Lawrence believes that Georgia's technical college and university systems — as well as its success in attracting new industries and a higher concentration of 25- to 34-year-old working professionals — will help mitigate some of the shortages.
"The work force will follow opportunities," he said.
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