Shopping on Christmas Eve, guys? You’ll have company

If you’re like millions of Americans who wait until the last minute to finish their holiday shopping, you could have lots of company on Wednesday.

About 44.5 million people had not started holiday shopping, according to a survey conducted by BIGresearch for the National Retail Federation. The survey was released on Dec. 19. The biggest procrastinators were men.

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BOB ANDRES / bandres@ajc.com

Lori Riordan of Marietta was out shopping Tuesday at The Avenues East Cobb with her children (from left) Bobby, 4, Mattie, 7, and Timmy, 9.

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Kimberly Smith / ksmith@ajc.com

At the Mall of Georgia in Buford, shoppers searched for bargains Tuesday.

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“That is true,” said Dewayne Herbert, manager of Phipps Plaza mall, adding that he expects to see a lot of men Wednesday. “Jewelry stores are generally packed the day before Christmas. Jewelry never goes out of style for the holidays.”

Even if there are long lines at the malls, the fate of retailers this year and next is anything but certain. Consumer spending is down, and the International Council of Shopping Centers has predicted that as many as 148,000 retail stores will close this year, with another 73,000 in the first half of 2009. Already, retailers from Linens ‘N Things to Circuit City have filed for bankruptcy.

Still, despite dire predictions for the holiday season, Perimeter Mall’s parking lots were 100 percent filled by 3 p.m. Saturday, said Dennis Kemp, the mall’s general manager. He said inventories at Perimeter have gotten very low on luxury items like premium jeans and cashmere.

John Mori, owner of Mori Luggage & Gifts, a chain of luggage and travel shops based in Atlanta, also reported that customer traffic and sales increased dramatically over the past few days. He said men usually cram his store Christmas Eve. He doesn’t mind, though, because they tend to buy items that sales clerks suggest.

To prepare for the last-minute onslaught, Mori said he’s ordered more shipments to arrive by Wednesday so he’ll have good inventories in stores.

However, national numbers show spending is down. Retail analysts with Bernstein Research believe that consumer discretionary spending has dropped 4 percent this year.

Sam Latone, co-CEO of Atlanta-based retail brokerage The Shopping Center Group, believes that retailers who listened to Wall Street, instead of following tried-and-true merchandising formulas, will be weakened this retail season. And where there are more than two large retailers in a category, he said, one will probably fail.

To get consumers in stores often and early, retailers have been continuing to give shoppers heavy discounts. Some stores, like JCPenney, continued offering “door buster” specials, which traditionally were only for the early birds.

Still, as bad as the season may be for some retailers, one expert revised his prediction upward.

Britt Beemer, CEO and founder of a Charleston-based consumer research group, said he expects holiday sales to decline by 2.8 percent this season. He’d previously predicted a 3.5 percent decline. He changed his numbers after strong shopping weekends in late November and early December, and particularly strong numbers at the nation’s largest retailer, Wal-Mart, which he has said will be the single biggest winner this year.

“Wal-Mart had as many shoppers this weekend as JCPenney, Sears, Target and Toys R Us combined,” Beemer said, referring to the week of Dec. 8.

In fact, his survey released Dec. 17 showed nearly two-thirds of American consumers shopped at Wal-Mart the week of Dec. 8, compared with 41.3 percent the comparable week last year.

Beemer’s predictions are based on weekly shopper surveys conducted by his firm, America’s Research Group, and UBS.

A flurry of snowstorms across the country may have boosted online sales while hurting the malls, according to comScore, a firm that measures retail e-commerce.

The company reported that online spending from Dec. 20-21 totaled $677 million, nearly double the sales on the weekend before Christmas last year.

Perhaps as an indication of the overall retail slump, however, the Washington-based National Retail Federation asked President-elect Barack Obama on Tuesday to add a series of national sales tax holidays to his upcoming economic stimulus package to boost consumer spending. The letter to Obama was signed by the NRF’s top officers, who are the CEOs of JCPenney, PetSmart and Saks.