Are we or aren't we? We've seen polls, evidence and anecdotes that suggest Georgia will be in play in the presidential race. But some of it is conflicting, vague, or possibly wishful thinking on the part of Democrats. Here's a look at why Georgia will — and won't — be a battleground state in the fight between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain.

POLLS

Jeff Chiu/AP (ENLARGE)

ON THE RIGHT: Republican presidential candidate John McCain can take comfort in the fact that Democrats running for president have won the state only twice since 1964. But he'll still have to win over skeptics.

Jae C. Hong/AP (ENLARGE)

ON THE LEFT: Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has an active and effective campaign operation in place in Georgia to drawn upon thousands of newly registered voters.

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YES, we're a battleground state: One recent poll showed the race between McCain and Obama essentially tied. Said pollster Matt Towery of Atlanta-based Insider Advantage: "Georgia is competitive." Towery also found Obama winning the fight for independents here, which could be where the campaign is won. And while no other poll has shown the race to be this close, Towery believes the methodology pollsters typically use has to change. Past voting behavior, he said, should not be given as much weight. The hundreds of thousands of new voters registered in Georgia are unlikely to be considered a "likely" voter, which is who most pollsters survey.

NO, we're not a battleground state: Nearly every other poll taken in the past month and a half shows McCain up by 10 points over Obama in Georgia. Said pollster David Johnson of Atlanta-based Strategic Vision, which last week found McCain leading by 8 points: "What we're seeing is Republicans are sticking with McCain for the most part. I think he'll win by 10 points." And Johnson also contradicts Towery in that Strategic Vision gives McCain the edge among independents.

INFRASTRUCTURE

YES, we're a battleground state: Of the two major party candidates, only one has paid staff working in Georgia. That's Obama, who has 75 workers and more than 200 trained volunteers here already. McCain has staff in Florida handling its Georgia operation. Obama has a campaign office in Atlanta. McCain's nearest is in Tallahassee.

NO, we're not a battleground state: It's July, not October. If McCain still has no discernible campaign organization by Labor Day, then this becomes an issue. In a state that remains solid red in most ways, this is not a huge surprise on McCain's part. It could just be a sign that McCain truly isn't worried about the state. Plus, McCain has organized his campaign around a series of regional headquarters scattered across the country. Few states have paid staff.

BOB BARR

YES, we're a battleground state: The Libertarian Party's nominee for president is a former Georgia congressman who could siphon votes away from McCain here. Said Republican pollster Whit Ayres, who until recently was based in Georgia: "It's the one state where Bob Barr could have a significant impact, because of his base in the state. It's unusual that a third-party candidate will have a significant political base in Georgia, but Bob Barr does and that changes the calculus."

NO, we're not a battleground state: Barr's showing in the polls here has yet to reach double digits and his fund raising has thus far lagged behind expectations. Plus, while Ron Paul has ended his long-shot bid for the Republican nomination, he hasn't endorsed Barr, who seems his more natural ideological ally. Without Paul's rabid supporters, Barr will be hard-pressed to make an impact.

ADVERTISING

YES, we're a battleground state: The Obama campaign is running television ads in 18 states. Georgia is one of them. Would he really spend the money here if he didn't think he could compete?

NO, we're not a battleground state: While McCain hasn't purchased airtime specifically on Georgia stations, he is running ads on national cable that Georgia viewers see. Plus, what does advertising in June and July get a candidate in November? Probably not much. If Obama is still running ads here after the Democratic convention in late August, then we'll talk.

HISTORY

YES, we're a battleground state: There is no recent history that bolsters this case. But, there is plenty of anecdotal evidence that 2008 will be historic. Democrats have won congressional races in Mississippi and Louisiana where they previously were routed. The sitting Republican president has terrible favorability ratings and the mood of the country seems rife for a Democratic takeover. Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz said that it's more difficult to judge state-by-state outcomes, but said if "the Democrats increase their vote share by 5 points across the nation, we will probably see a similar shift in Georgia."

NO, we're not a battleground state: Only two Democrats have carried Georgia since 1964: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and 1980, and Bill Clinton in 1992. The state hasn't been competitive since 1996, when Clinton lost to Republican Bob Dole. George W. Bush won Georgia by 17 points in 2004.

VOTER REGISTRATION

YES, we're a battleground state: There are 300,000 more registered voters in Georgia today than on Jan. 1, a spike that University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock calls significant. Plus, 500,000 names were added to the active voting rolls from the 2004 presidential election through Jan. 1 of this year, a 20 percent increase. Many of those new voters, Bullock believes, can be attributed to excitement for Obama. That is especially true among for new African-American voters and young voters, who back Obama overwhelmingly.

NO, we're not a battleground state: The racial makeup of Georgia's voter rolls hasn't changed much. There are now more than 1.3 million registered black voters. In 2006, there were nearly 1.2 million. African Americans in 2006 were 27 percent of the active voters, and now they're 28 percent, and that's not enough by itself to carry Obama to victory. Obama must still attract 30 percent or more of white voters, which many analysts doubt he can do.

GET OUT THE VOTE

YES, we're a battleground state: Obama's campaign has proven it can revolutionize ways of mobilizing its base to polls on election day. He did it all over the country in primaries and caucuses, including in Georgia. The groundwork the campaign is doing here now could pay dividends on election day. Plus, the state Democratic Party has a new high-tech tool, VoteBuilder, that will complement Obama's efforts and could for the first time put the Democrats on an even playing field with the GOP when it comes to grass-roots mobilization.

NO, we're not a battleground state: The Georgia Republican Party has proven itself superior over the past few election cycles at moving its people to the booth. The GOP's vaunted 72-hour plan cannot be underestimated and the state Democratic Party, despite its new tools, has not shown itself capable of building a statewide operation.

INTANGIBLES

YES, we're a battleground state: Obama's campaign often seems more like a movement, with legions of supporters anxious to do what it takes to make him president. There is also a distinct lack of enthusiasm for McCain among many Georgians. At the state Republican Party convention in Columbus in May, speaker after speaker made off-the-cuff remarks about how McCain wasn't their first choice. When party leaders do that, it tends to trickle down to the base. Finally, McCain himself told a crowd here in March that he believes the state will be competitive.

NO, we're not a battleground state: Of course McCain said that, but that doesn't necessarily mean he meant it. If he doesn't fire up the base and give them reason to come out on Nov. 4, they won't. He, and the GOP, have for years been way better at defining their opponent. There's no tangible evidence yet that conservatives will stay home on Election Day, and they surely won't vote for Obama. This could also be the year that a U.S. Senate race actually lifts a presidential candidate. Johnson, of Strategic Visions, believes Republicans will come out to support U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss' re-election and that will only help McCain.