Jobless rate rises, as more people look for work

By Michael E. Kanell

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Metro Atlanta's jobless rate jumped to a new high in January, rising from 10.1 percent the month before to 10.8 percent as the region’s pool of unemployed swelled to nearly 300,000.

Soaring past last June’s previous record of 10.6 percent, the rate posted Wednesday by the state Labor Department showed a labor market still sliding after two years of decline – with tens of thousands of Georgians not even counted because they are not actively searching for work.

“We are on the backside of a Category Five economic hurricane,” said Michael Thurmond, state labor commissioner. “I think the unemployment rate – as severe as it is – doesn’t tell the whole story.”

The rate will keep rising this year – especially with government workers joining the jobless rolls as public budgets tighten, said Jeff Humphreys, director of the Selig Center for Economic Growth at the University of Georgia.

“I expect the unemployment rate to continue to inch upward through the end of the summer. My gut tells me it will peak between 11 and 11.5 percent for the state.”

Roughly 168,200 Georgians have been unemployed for six months or more. An estimated 97,800 people are working part-time because they cannot find full-time work, according to the January report.

Yet, Thursday’s report did hint at hope: While 11,000 people in metro Atlanta lost jobs during January, it said, an estimated 10,000 others entered the labor force, based on government surveys .

That could mean some people who went back to school are out again looking for work. It could mean a surge of new residents in metro Atlanta. It could also be a modest signal that workers who had been discouraged now believe that hiring has picked up and have rejoined the hunt.

“When people perceive the economy getting better, they do come back,” said Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University.

Andy Decker, regional vice president for Robert Half International in Atlanta, a staffing company, said he's noticed a greater flow of applicants.

“I’ve seen people who have been out of work for more than 12 months, people who have not been actively looking who are looking again," Decker said. "And we are seeing an increase in the number of companies bringing people on.”

Hiring is up a bit in accounting, finance, technology, marketing and advertising, he said.

“The reason that the unemployment rate is up is that more people are back to looking.”

Kelly Services also has seen more jobseekers, as well as an uptick in demand for them from companies, said Daniel Thomas, territory manager and region vice president responsible for Atlanta and Birmingham.

Among positions being be filled are those in light manufacturing and distribution, as well as in office administration, he said.

“It’s nothing to jump up and down and dance on tables, but we have seen an uptick in positions available.”

The unemployment rate often rises in January, as holiday help is let go and slack demand at many businesses tamps down expansion. The metro Atlanta jobless rate is not adjusted to smooth out  those seasonal variations.

January's workforce growth was unusual, however. Until last month, the number of people in the labor force had dropped in every January since 1990, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“Typically, this just doesn’t happen in January,” said Dhawan.

Workforce growth can be a sign that workers who've been on the sidelines see reason for hope. During a recession, it is common for some unemployed people to become discouraged and drop out of the work force. They stay at home with children, return to school, find non-paying hobbies or just stew and wait.

When the whiff of hiring wafts in the window, many of them leap back into the search.

That happened in the aftermath of the 1990-91 recession and in 2003 at the end of a jobless expansion.

The release of jobs data for January had been delayed while the state updated last year's numbers. A release on February unemployment is due out March 18, just a week away.

Georgia’s statewide unemployment rate edged from 10.3 to 10.4 percent in January, while the state's hardest-hit county – Warren County – was just about twice that. Among cities listed in Wednesday's report, Lawrenceville overtook LaGrange to hold the highest jobless rate: 15.8 percent.

Georgia's unemployment rate is higher than the national average but lower than those of its southern neighbors. For instance, Florida, Alabama and North Carolina are above 11 percent.  South Carolina is at 12.6 percent. Worst in the nation is Michigan, at 14.3 percent. South Dakota and Wyoming are tied with the lowest rate of 2.8 percent.

ABOUT THE NUMBERS

On Wednesday, the state Labor Department released January jobs figures for Georgia's metro areas and cities. Last week, the department reported statewide job numbers, while the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced national unemployment data. February numbers for Georgia are to be announced later this month.