Grocery rankings change again

By Rachel Tobin Ramos

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Through no fault of its own, Publix did not last long atop the grocery rankings in metro Atlanta.

It was just a month ago that Florida-based Publix completed a long climb to the No. 1 spot for market share, according to respected industry trade journal The Shelby Report -- a feat that prompted a page one story in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

But in the Shelby Report’s latest market share ranking, Publix tumbled back into the second spot, with longtime leader Kroger regaining first.

What gives?

The reason for the turnaround is that The Shelby Report decided to change how it calculates market share among Atlanta’s grocers, the company’s publisher told the AJC.

“We made a decision to go back and review the rankings because of reaction from the retail and manufacturing community” to the July rankings, said Ron Johnston, president and publisher of Gainesville-based The Shelby Report.

“It warranted that we needed to take a second a look at this. What we found was an over-reliance on the survey side of our data vs. the empirical data.”

Johnston would not discuss in much detail his company’s “proprietary method” for establishing market share, but it involves a mix of sales information from grocers and other variables such as store locations and survey results.

Johnston said his company’s relationship with Trade Dimensions, a Nielsen Business Media product that tracked sales by retailers, ended earlier this year.

“At that time we transitioned to our own model,” said Johnston. “July was the first publishing of the new model.”

Both manufacturers and grocers questioned the data, he said, prompting him to reconsider the formula.

Kroger was among those complaining, Johnston said. But he said he was not pressured to change the rankings: “No, we were not pressured to change the shares by either party. We were pressured to get it right.”

Brenda Reid, media and community relations manager for Publix, said she can’t comment on Shelby’s numbers, “because I don’t know the formulas they’ve used to come up with these numbers.”

She said Publix isn’t disappointed in the change, which has the chain’s share dropping 4 points to 23 percent, while Kroger’s rose 4 points to 29.5 percent.

“When we saw we were No. 1 last month, we thought, ‘Okay that’s great,’” Reid said. “But we’re not changing anything we’re doing based on being No. 1 or 2. We know that rankings fluctuate.”

Glynn Jenkins, director of communications and public relations for Cincinnati-based Kroger Co.’s Atlanta Division, also said he can’t confirm Shelby’s data because it is obtained “independently.”

But he added the chain is “pleased The Shelby Report responded to industry feedback and re-examined its empirical data.”

“They’re right now,” Johnston said of the numbers, adding he has discussed them with Publix and Kroger. “We stand behind the model.”

The Southeastern report has 17,055 subscribers and also generates revenue from advertising, he said.

Latest grocery market share in metro Atlanta

The Shelby Report for August includes a publisher’s note that says, “Bottom line, while the gap between Nos. 1 and 2 has narrowed, our re-examination confirms Kroger still holds the largest actual share in Atlanta.”

1. Kroger, 131 stores, 29.5 percent

2. Publix, 143 stores, 23.5 percent

3. Wal-Mart, 58 stores, 22.5 percent

4. Ingles, 41 stores, 4.8 percent

5. Costco, 7 stores, 4.1 percent

6. Sam’s Club, 12 stores, 2.9 percent

7. SuperTarget, 12 stores, 2.7 percent

8. All American Quality Foods, 24 stores, 2.2 percent

9. Whole Foods, 7 stores, 1.5 percent

10. BJ’s, 8 stores, 1 percent

Source: The Shelby Report of the Southeast

Note: Other grocers in metro Atlanta have less than 1 percent market share, including Trader Joe’s, Aldi, Fresh Market, Food Lion, Save-A-Lot and others.