INTERNET SHOPPING: ‘Cyber Monday’ drives seasonal employment

While Americans hit the malls in record numbers on Black Friday, UPS, the world’s largest package carrier, geared up to ship the goods around the world.

But so far, the company isn’t sure how many goods it will be shipping —- making it difficult to decide how many seasonal employees to hire. The Sandy Springs-company also awaited results from another famous shopping day, “Cyber Monday.” That’s the day workers return from the Thanksgiving holiday to buy gifts online, usually from work. It’s not the busiest online shopping day of the year —- that day usually occurs later in December as shipping deadlines approach.

Despite solid shopping numbers from Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving known for putting retailers into the black in terms of profits, UPS said it can’t judge the holiday season by one day alone.

“I don’t want to in any way sound down about peak season,” said UPS spokesman Norman Black. “Our drivers and employees get excited every year about peak season and look forward to playing Santa Claus and being Santa’s helper.

“But there is a lot of uncertainty,” he said. “And we can’t judge it by one day.”

Despite weeks of what Black described as “doom and gloom” predictions about holiday sales, shoppers hit the malls in droves on Friday in a quest for deals.

Retailers “risk training us to look for the deal and not being able to move until the deal is big,” said Chris Fraga, president of Acorn International, a Houston-based company that consults with Fortune 1000 firms on profitability.

He thinks retailers discounted goods to get consumers —- at a low point in confidence and spending after financial shocks to Wall Street and the credit markets —- to act.

And early results show that it may have worked.

The National Retail Federation reported holiday traffic at malls over Black Friday was up. There were 25 million more shoppers this year than last year —-and this after the Washington-based organization had predicted a 19 million shopper decline.

Shoppers spent more too, said the NRF: $372.57 this year compared to $347.55 last year from Thursday to Saturday, plus projections for Sunday. But how long this spending can be sustained is another matter.

Reston, Va.-based comScore, a company that monitors digital commerce, says online spending increased 6 percent to $288 million on Thanksgiving day this year, compared to last year. On Black Friday, online spending rose 1 percent to $534 million, compared to last year.

But online spending from Nov. 1-28, comScore reported, declined 4 percent to $10.41 billion over the same period a year ago.

These numbers take on crucial importance to UPS with three weeks to go before Christmas.

The company is prepared to add workers if needed. Most holiday hires take less than a day to train, said Black, such as driver helpers and package sorters.

But consumer behavior is making it harder to predict shipping needs.

Last year, explained Black, UPS got nervous after Thanksgiving.

“The first full week after Thanksgiving, volume was below our projections,” he said. “But the week before Christmas, the volume increased ahead of projections.”

He said consumers were shopping closer to Christmas day, and retailers encouraged it by offering guaranteed shipping later in the season. “It’s gotten to be very difficult sometimes to look at the beginning and know what it will look like by the time you’re done.”

Dale Hayes, vice president of U.S. marketing at UPS explained: “We saw a surge in shopping, but we’re not sure if people just moved buying forward to take advantage of sales. Last year, they shopped later.”

Still, Fraga sees some opportunity for UPS.

“The one good thing about a UPS business, though, is I see a major trend towards folks buying online. That bodes well for UPS,” he said.

Online and brick-and-mortar retailers were certainly doing their part to spur spending on Monday.

Atlanta-based Home Depot was offering deals on tools and things to spruce up the home, like faucets, in time for holiday visitors, said spokeswoman Jean Niemi.

Online deals included a RIDGID 24V lithium hammer drill, for $129, more than half off its regular price of $279 and a Pegasus brand brushed bronze faucet for $49 —- regular price $89.

“Our focus of integrating Homedepot.com more closely with our stores in both marketing and customer service seems to be resonating with our customer base,” said Niemi.