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The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 07/28/08
EarthLink invested for years in potential replacements for its once-thriving dial-up Internet business: a mobile phone service aimed at teens, citywide wireless high-speed Internet and broadband that runs over utility power lines.
None of them worked.
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Plagued by an eroding customer base, EarthLink has managed to stay afloat — and even turn a profit in the first quarter after losing $135 million in 2007 — by slashing its work force in half and abandoning two failed ventures. Now, it's crunch time. CEO Rolla Huff is banking the company's future on the very thing that has caused trouble in the first place: dial-up.
Hello?
Huff has been saying for months he is serious. He has argued that he can't stop losing customers to broadband but what he can do is buy dial-up subscribers from other companies that don't want them and build a critical mass.
It's unclear whether that strategy will work.
"The old core Internet service provider business that was central to EarthLink and AOL is really fading away and drying up," said Lydia Leong, an analyst for Gartner, an information technology research company in Stamford, Conn. "They are a company with declining fare and declining brand equity."
EarthLink is scheduled to release its second-quarter earnings Tuesday . Executives declined to be interviewed saying the company was in a quiet period and could not speak to the media ahead of the earnings announcement. The company made a small profit of $54.4 million during the first quarter, and executives raised their full-year forecast to between $245 million and $260 million.
Analysts are hoping for some answers Tuesday on EarthLink's strategy for the long haul.
"What's the long-term solution to the challenging business model? I don't think they have figured it out, and it may not exist," said Mike Paxton, an analyst with In-Stat, a technology and communications market research firm based in Scottsdale, Ariz. "Relying solely on dial-up Internet access is not a good story for their customers, their employees or Wall Street."
A recent addition to EarthLink's board may provide a clue about the company's intentions: telecom industry veteran M. Wayne Wisehart has been either chief financial officer or CEO of a number of phone, wireless or Internet business that eventually were bought by larger companies, giving him plenty of experience in navigating through an acquisition.
Though troubled companies are often prey for prospective buyers, analysts said none would probably be interested and that EarthLink has time to pursue the purchases Huff seeks.
"We see EarthLink as an acquirer," said Scott Kessler, an analyst with Standard & Poor's in New York. "If you think about what they've done, they've basically gotten out of these other businesses and have done that so they can focus on dial-up."
EarthLink rose and fell with the Internet boom, but while major telecom companies such as AT&T and Comcast were throwing money into high-speed Internet, the company tried branching out into other ventures as a way to survive. It dabbled in Internet telephony, partnered with Duke Power to launch broadband over power lines, or BPL, on a trial basis and paired up with satellite TV providers DISH and DirecTV to market its Internet services.
Then EarthLink and SK Telecom invested about $440 million into Helio, a wireless company aimed at teens, with the hopes of capturing 3 million subscribers by 2010. Virgin Mobile bought the joint venture — and its 170,000 customers — in June for about $39 million in stock.
The company shut down another troubled venture, a municipal wireless network in Philadelphia, one month before. The $17 million effort that was part of a larger nationwide project, which is being phased out.
During EarthLink's first-quarter conference call in April with analysts, Huff acknowledged that while the company continues to lose dial-up subscribers, he sees a "long and profitable tale" in that market by buying those customers from other companies.
Huff was optimistic, telling investors that he considers such acquisitions one of EarthLink's core competencies. In fact the company has bought more than 120 groups of dial-up Internet subscribers since 1999.
During the conference call he said there is a "constant list of people that we are talking to on a consistent basis," but would not give any names. Analysts, including Jim Friedland at Cowen & Co., say the ones being courted are Time Warner's AOL and Microsoft's MSN.
Huff told analysts that AOL, MSN and United Online each have to determine how important the dial-up business is to them.
"At some point, scale will matter as much to them as it does to us," Huff said. "And we're better positioned all around to be that consolidator. We're going to try really hard to continue to acquire dial-up customers. We just want to make sure we're going to make money off of them."
Friedland, an analyst with Cowen & Co., is skeptical.
"We continue to believe that the company's dial-up base, which generates the majority of its (earnings), will decline to zero in five to six years," he wrote in a research note based on the company's first-quarter earnings.
Other analysts are less dramatic.
"While dial-up Internet access is a dying business, it is hardly a dead business," Kessler said. Companies such as EarthLink, however, have to work hard at maintaining a critical mass of customers to stay profitable, he said.
Huff has said he is bullish about the company's long-term prospects.
"I believe we can make our company better than it is today," he told analysts.
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More on ajc.com
- Healthier EarthLink eyes AOL (08/11/2008)
- Is EarthLink-AOL deal feasible — or prudent? (08/11/2008)
- AOL likely target for EarthLink (08/05/2008)
- AOL likely target for EarthLink (08/05/2008)
- EarthLink watching possible AOL split (08/04/2008)
- EarthLink beats expectations (07/29/2008)
- EarthLink posts $53M profit (07/29/2008)
- Key time for EarthLink (07/29/2008)
- Earthlink shuttering pioneering Philadelphia Wi-Fi network (05/14/2008)
- Philadelphia Wi-Fi cut off (05/14/2008)
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Comments
By JV
Jul 29, 2008 11:39 AM | Link to this
Well. I have work at Earhtlink for almost a year and I can tell you they pride themselves on being customer focused. Everything I have worked on in the past year has been to make the customer experience better. As far a growth is concerned. How do you think Middle America gets online? Not everyone is in broadband range. I can name serveral cities that rely on dialup for all networking needs. What do you do with those customers? If dialup was to not exist half of America would be without access to the internet..
By SLowe
Jul 29, 2008 11:34 AM | Link to this
So Earthlink is going to focus on dial-up. That would be nice if they could CORRECT THE PROBLEMS THEY HAVE WITH DIAL-UP. I have their dial-up service and since July 2007, I have at least a dozen error messages to be sent to Microsoft about a problem with Earthlink's TotalAccess software. Earthlink's support has not been any help and finally sent me to Microsoft for help (now that had to be a joke as anyone dealing with Microsoft knows). I have talked to support, wrote letters to Earthlink, reloaded the Earthlink software (way too many times) and still no fix for whatever the problem is with TotalAccess. Earthlink, you stated, let people go, well maybe they should hire some people who can find problems in software and FIX THEM. Earthlink was once a great ISP, but over the last year or so it seems that their management does not give a hoot about it's customers anymore. I would like to upgrade to broadband but if they cann't get the problems out of dial-up what would happen with broadband. Their DSL costs about the same as their cable broadband and their dial-up is slowly getting to high in price. Maybe, if they wonn't to attract customers they should lower the standard price on their services and supply service with the problems worked out. If they could do these things then they would get customers a plenty.
By SLowe
Jul 29, 2008 11:33 AM | Link to this
So Earthlink is going to focus on dial-up. That would be nice if they could CORRECT THE PROBLEMS THEY HAVE WITH DIAL-UP. I have their dial-up service and since July 2007, I have at least a dozen error messages to be sent to Microsoft about a problem with Earthlink's TotalAccess software. Earthlink's support has not been any help and finally sent me to Microsoft for help (now that had to be a joke as anyone dealing with Microsoft knows). I have talked to support, wrote letters to Earthlink, reloaded the Earthlink software (way too many times) and still no fix for whatever the problem is with TotalAccess. Earthlink, you stated, let people go, well maybe they should hire some people who can find problems in software and FIX THEM. Earthlink was once a great ISP, but over the last year or so it seems that their management does not give a hoot about it's customers anymore. I would like to upgrade to broadband but if they cann't get the problems out of dial-up what would happen with broadband. Their DSL costs about the same as their cable broadband and their dial-up is slowly getting to high in price. Maybe, if they wonn't to attract customers they should lower the standard price on their services and supply service with the problems worked out. If they could do these things then they would get customers a plenty.
By David Milum
Jul 29, 2008 11:15 AM | Link to this
Earthlink's sordid past comes home to roost. After begging this company to stop stealing from me they are still doing it today over two years later after I ran from them.
I wouldn't do business again with these thieves if I was forced to abandon the Internet. Good riddance to a company with no morals and even less business sense. I would have never thought that Earthlink could be worse than AOL.
By Glenn
Jul 29, 2008 8:17 AM | Link to this
The article should read Earthlink tries to stay in business off the ignorance of people . You can get broadband with or without a landline for less than Earthlinks dial up prices . It's rather surprising that they have stayed in business this long . Earthlinks ship has sailed .
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