Local brewers could see gains, or feel squeeze, from consolidation


The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 07/14/08

The $52 billion sale of Anheuser-Busch to Belgian beer maker InBev could be a mixed blessing for Georgia breweries.

Local companies said they hope to gain market share as Anheuser-Busch is distracted with combining operations with its new owner.

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But the deal could prompt further consolidation of distributors, locking out small beer makers at a time when rising commodity prices are eating away at their bottom lines.

Independent distributors of Anheuser-Busch products have been working with smaller breweries in increasing numbers in the past few years, but it's unclear whether the trend will continue after the sale is completed. Atlanta Brewing Co. President Bob Budd said he's concerned that as distributors increase in size and decrease in number, they will pay less attention to smaller breweries.

"In some cases, even good brands might wind up out in the cold," he said.

Once approved by shareholders, InBev's purchase of America's largest brewer will create Anheuser-Busch InBev, an international behemoth that will own about 300 brands and generate annual sales of more than $36 billion.

Industry analysts said they expect the new company to consolidate its distribution network to cut costs and pay back some of the $45 billion in debt that will be incurred by InBev during the purchase.

Georgia has only a few breweries that sell through distributors — including Sweetwater, Moon River and Atlanta Brewing — but the Southeast has experienced particularly strong growth in the craft beer market. Retail sales of craft beers increased 31.6 percent in five Southeastern states in 2007, faster than any other region, according to research firm IRI.

Craft brewers — defined as producing less than 2 million barrels a year — have been riding high for the past few years. Volume of craft beer sold increased 12 percent in 2007, compared with 1.4 percent each for imports and noncraft domestics, according to the Brewers Association.

Joe Thompson, president of the Independent Beverage Group, said distributor consolidation will accelerate pruning in the craft beer industry. Larger distributors will hold breweries to higher standards of efficiency and professionalism, he said, meaning the strong will get stronger while the weak will get weaker faster.

"You're either a shark, or you're bait," he said.

However, he dismissed the concern that some brands won't find their way to market.

"If a brand is marketable, and the consumers want the brand, the distributors will carry it," he said.

Benj Steinman, editor of Beer Marketer's Insights, said Miller and Coors, which merged their U.S. operations last year, have become more competitive through consolidation. However, he expects that trend to unsettle smaller companies.

"They just feel that these companies are going to be so large and have so much leverage with their distributors that it will reduce their options," he said.

Commodity prices have already squeezed microbreweries. Budd said he paid $2 per pound for bittering hops two years ago. Now he's paying $27.5 per pound, a 1,275 percent increase.

"Everything is just exploding," he said.

Frost Sullivan analyst Christopher Shanahan said the cost of hops has been driven skyward by poor weather in Europe and declining domestic production.

Local brewers have one important thing going for them though: hometown pride. Sweetwater Brewery's Steve Farace sees a marketing opportunity in Anheuser-Busch's new foreign ownership.

"The only truly American-owned beers are going to be craft brewers," he said.

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