Atlanta-area real estate professionals say home sales have increased in recent weeks, but whether that's a market turnaround, a brief phenomenon or simply a rite of spring is uncertain.

"Everyone's reporting their traffic is up and they are writing contracts," said Eugene James, director of the Atlanta region for Metrostudy, which does quarterly surveys of housing construction and closings.

Prestige Mortgage, one of the biggest suburban lenders in the metro area, said its business has increased about 30 percent compared to this time last year, according to Eva Aycock, who manages the company's three branches.

"Anything under $250,000 is selling," Aycock said. "We're just not seeing the significant halt that they talk about nationwide."

But economists and academics removed from real estate's day-to-day activities were more skeptical.

"Usually these things [turnarounds] are not quick. They're not like the stock market," said Dan Immergluck, associate professor in the city and regional planning program at Georgia Tech.

Much of the new activity might be banks unloading foreclosures, Immergluck said. Georgia's foreclosure rate was 23rd in the nation, a recent report from the Mortgage Bankers Association says.

Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University, said a housing turnaround doesn't jibe with what else is going on: talk of a recession, 2,000 announced job cuts at Delta Airlines and high oil prices.

"What we're probably seeing is the spring bounce that happens in the market every year," Dhawan said.

One trend that does bode well for housing is the decline in housing starts. Since the fourth quarter of 2004, new construction is down 56.5 percent while sales declined 37.3 percent, Metrostudy says. Sales have been greater than housing starts on a regular basis since early 2007.

If that continues, inventory will shrink, correcting the supply-demand balance. James said the current 101/2-month supply is still about two months too high.

But even the inventory decline might be a false positive, Immergluck said. Because homes prices have tumbled, prospective sellers have delayed listing their homes, he said. Once prices flatten out, inventory might surge.

The closely watched S&P/Case-Shiller home price index reported this week that home prices in 20 metro areas collectively dropped 10.7 percent from January 2007 to January of this year.

In 28 Atlanta-area counties, the decrease was 4.8 percent. The sharpest monthly dropoff — 1.8 percent — occurred this January.

Local real estate agents responded the numbers don't reflect a spike in contracts and sales that began last month.

"I am hearing from Realtors all over town, and from within my own office, that home showings and sales activity have really picked up," said Scott Simpson, president of the Atlanta Board of Realtors and managing broker with Prudential Georgia Realty.

Realtors and mortgage bankers say low interest rates, concessions by home builders and pent-up demand have combined to buoy the market.

In addition, the federal government has stepped in to enlarge the pool of qualified buyers. The FHA this month increased the size of mortgages it's willing to insure, spurring lenders to make more deals. In metro Atlanta, the ceiling was raised to $364,250 from $252,890.

"That's helped tremendously," said Opteum Mortgage's Rick Floyd, president of the Mortgage Bankers Association of Georgia.

Atlanta's job and population growth will continue to bolster housing, real estate professionals say. The metro area was second only to Dallas last year in population growth, and 55,000 jobs were added, according to Census figures and the Metro Atlanta Chamber of Commerce.

"When you have that many people moving into a metro area, they've got to have a place to live," Allen Kenknight, president of Prestige Mortgage, said.

Dhawan said the job growth number is "decent," not spectacular. And he wondered how many of those new residents are retirees uninterested in traditional family homes.

"The worst is behind us," Roger Tutterow, economics professor at Mercer University, said. But "it's a little too early to think the market is coming back in a really meaningful way."