La Jolla, Calif. — If you haven't bought that big-screen TV yet, or if you're in the market for another one, it might be worth waiting a little longer.

After years of heady growth, flat-screen TV sales have reached a plateau, and the industry is set for a shake-up that could mean lower prices for bigger, better screens.

Jeff Janowski/AJC (ENLARGE)

Michael Sanders checks out big-screen TVs at a Best Buy store in Atlanta. After several years of double-digit growth, total TV sales fell by 3 percent last year. Average prices are projected to be flat this year and decline by 6 percent to 7 percent annually through at least 2012.

TOP TV BRANDS North American market share in 2007: • Samsung: 13.3 percent • Sony: 8.8 percent • Vizio: 8.3 percent • Funai: 7.8 percent • Sharp: 7.2 percent Source: DisplaySearch CHEAPER PRICES SOON Estimates for North America Avg. screen size, Avg. price • 2006: 29.2 inches, $846 • 2007: 32.9 inches, $914 • 2008: 34.6 inches, $920 • 2009: 35.8 inches, $867 • 2010: 36.8 inches, $804 • 2011: 37.6 inches, $748 • 2012: 38.3 inches, $698 BUSINESS Latest Headlines: [an error occurred while processing this directive] • More business news • Business photo galleries

Average TV prices in North America are expected to be nearly flat this year and decline by 6 percent to 7 percent annually through at least 2012, predicts Austin, Texas-based market research company DisplaySearch. Average screen sizes, meanwhile, will likely keep growing.

Declining demand is helping drive down prices. Total TV sales fell by 3 percent last year after several years of double-digit growth.

TV makers are hoping the government-mandated switch to digital broadcasting in February 2009 will spur some sales.

But with consumer spending slowing along with the overall economy, fewer consumers are likely to shell out $1,000 or more for a bigger TV when they're having a hard time paying their mortgage.

"It's a stressful time for the business," said Bob Perry, senior vice president of TV maker Panasonic Consumer Electronics.

At a conference in La Jolla sponsored by DisplaySearch, other TV makers echoed Perry's concerns.

And for good reason, said DisplaySearch founder and chief analyst Ross Young.

"They should be worried, because [their] costs aren't falling, but prices are," Young said. "It's a more difficult environment."

Along with a slowing economy, the big-screen TV business is maturing just like any other high-tech business, from PCs to cellphones.

Last year, flat screens outsold old-school tube TVs. LCD TVs, the most popular type of flat screens, accounted for almost half of all TV sales, according to DisplaySearch.

Meanwhile, low-price competitors, such as Vizio, are taking a bigger share of the market, while discount retailers such as Wal-Mart and Costco are demanding lower prices from manufacturers.

"There was a time where affordability in the flat-TV market was not so important, because it was a niche business," Scott Ramirez, vice president of marketing for Toshiba America, said at the DisplaySearch conference. "But now, affordability is key."

Ramirez, like other executives at TV producers, predicts a major shakeout in the industry this year that will result in many less-established brands being bought or forced out of business.

"Commoditization and consolidation ... it's going to happen whether we like it or not," he said. "The number of brands will be shrinking."

At the same time, the bigger TV manufacturers are putting more features and newer technology into their sets to try to differentiate themselves.

That means the flat screens consumers buy later this year or next year will likely have the same features of the high-end TVs today.

Last week, market leader Samsung introduced new technology across its line that it claims will reduce the blurriness that comes with motion. It also is rolling out innovations in LED backlighting.

Sony Electronics, the No. 2 TV company in North America, is stressing its own new features, including technology that lets some models link wirelessly to home PCs, slots in some sets that accept digital media drives, and screens made from organic materials that are not only better for the environment but also better for viewing.

"We're going to put more technology into the TV," said Randy Waynick, senior vice president of marketing for Sony's home products division.

Like others, Sony also is looking for revenues in new places.

While bigger has always been better when it came to flat-screen TV business, Waynick said Sony now plans to target the market for smaller flat-screen TVs.

Why? Now that many Americans already have big flat-screen sets in their living rooms or basements, the thinking goes, they'll want to add smaller, less-expensive flat screens in their bedrooms and home offices.

"I don't think we're done yet," Waynick said. "There are still a lot of ... rooms left" in the typical American home.