Home sales in metro Atlanta have slowed to a trickle and likely will remain sluggish until sometime next year, predicted a Mercer University economist.
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"We're bottoming out and will be bouncing along for another couple of quarters," said Roger Tutterow, professor of economics at the Stetson School of Business at Mercer.
Following two more gloomy national reports this week on home sales and prices, Tutterow was scheduled Tuesday morning to join Eugene James, Atlanta regional director for real estate analysis firm Metrostudy, and Steve Palmer, president of the Greater Atlanta Home Builders Association, at a forum on that state of the local economy. The forum was sponsored by the home builders association.
The association also planned to release a report on local housing trends. Among the findings were:
--- Monthly housing permits in metro Atlanta for single-family homes were 31,029 in December, a nearly 50% drop-off from June 2006.
-- There were 3,244 housing starts in north metro Atlanta in the fourth quarter, down 49.4 percent from a year earlier. In south Atlanta, the tally was 1,661, down 65.8 percent.
-- The number of new, unsold homes and homes under construction in the entire metro area reached 31,546 in the fourth quarter, down 17 percent from a year earlier.
-- The inventory of unsold homes reached an 11.3 months-supply in north metro Atlanta in the fourth quarter, and a 9.7-months supply in south metro Atlanta.
Though inventories are high and sales are slow, Tutterow said in an interview that home prices in Atlanta have remained relatively steady compared to many other areas of the country.
While markets like San Diego and Miami are seeing prices drop by double-digit percentages, home prices around Atlanta are largely unchanged, Tutterow said.
"Here in Atlanta, year over year, they're flat or maybe dropping a percent or two," he said.
Standard & Poor's reported a slightly worse figure for Atlanta on Tuesday.
The firm said U.S. home prices lost 8.9 percent in the final quarter of 2007, marking a full year of declining values and the steepest drop in the 20-year history of its housing index.
Atlanta was not among the worst-hit cities in the report, but still saw a decline in home prices, posting a 3.4 percent drop compared to a year ago.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices, which include a quarterly index, a 20-city index and a 10-city index, reflect year-over-year declines in 17 metropolitan areas with double-digit declines in eight of them.
The quarterly index tracks prices of existing-family homes nationwide compared with a year earlier.
The 10-city index also set a record annual decline of 9.8 percent in December, while the 20-city index dropped 9.1 percent.
Home prices also plunged 5.4 percent from the previous three-month period, by far the largest quarter-to-quarter decline in the index's history. The previous record was the revised 1.8 percent drop in the third quarter of 2007.
Still, Tutterow said, the market will still take a long time to catch up to the recent surge surveys are showing in consumer confidence.
Recovery is probably still a year away, he said.
On Monday, the National Association of Realtors said U.S. sales of existing homes fell to the lowest level in nearly a decade in January, while the median price for a home dropped for the fifth straight month.
NAR said sales of single-family homes and condominiums dropped by 0.4 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million units, the slowest sales pace on records going back to 1999. The median price of a home sold in January slid to $201,100, a drop of 4.6 percent from a year ago.
Tutterow said there is a silver lining here: the glut is partially responsible for a brighter consumer outlook.
"It means there's tons of property for them to choose from," he said.
Consumers are beginning to feel empowered because of their bargaining power and wide selection, "They know they have the upper hand in negotiations," Tutterow said.

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Comments
By Adam Smith
Mar 15, 2008 7:51 AM | Link to this
This problem is like looking close up at an elephant and describing what you see to a blind man: you don't get the whole picture. It's now mid March and the fundamentals are worse than when this article was published and the scope continues to spread: the dollar pushes to new lows daily, the Fed bailed out Bear Stearns and the list goes on. If an all out depression is not on the horizon then one doozy of a recession is a certainty.
By Rick B.
Mar 6, 2008 1:09 PM | Link to this
Actually only about 1% of homeowners in America are going through foreclosure. About 95% of homeowners have accrued more equity, therefore it is only a small % of homeowners who are "losing" homes. Read the latest Figures from the Colorado Report. And banks aren't the bad guys. They bought the loans, but didn't originate them. The thousands of mortgage companies who have now closed their doors are the originators. I've been in banking since 1981 and have watched all the carziness. The loans which banks originated, and have kept to service, are reasonable loans. The politicans and Federal Reserve needs to work in the trenches and develop an understanding of the home financing industry. Banks are going to take a huge lick on construction loan foreclosures, but those loans are between the banks and home builders, not home owwners. Home builders and the banks who handed out cash like cookies, both should take big baths, and they are going to. But banks, by and large, didn't originate the "sub-prime" loans, mortgage companies did and packaged them and sold them to competing buyers. A few banks like Citi, Chase, Wells Fargo, Ban kf A, Wachovia, did purchase "sub-prime" loans for the intent of profit, and now they are being kicked hard, as well they should be. But the "sub-prime" loan originators, mortgage companies, originated probably 95% of the "alt-A" and "sub-prime" loans. Check the figures.
By Dee Dee
Mar 3, 2008 12:27 AM | Link to this
Once the foreclosures snowball, prices may go way, way, down. About 18 months ago, this problem was just a blip. When there are more foreclosures entering the market than new listings, then it is everyones problem. Bush must of found Bernackie the same place he found the old FEMA guy. I think they need to get a little more aggressive on this problem. When people are afraid to buy a home because they fear the value of it will drop 10% in a year, then it is too late. I think the banks and the Bush adm should of thought this one out a little better.
By mike
Mar 1, 2008 4:57 PM | Link to this
In regards to Mr. Storm
Your comments echo loud and clear about America's attitude "We are all victims and the MAN runs everything". If you get upside down in your house, then walk away--Hey, it's your right, right? As long as everything is about ME and my investments go up--then keep your hands out of my pocket. The minute your bad decisions cost you, well my God, why doesn't the government do something about it?
By Rick
Feb 29, 2008 5:28 PM | Link to this
Real estate is local. Inner cities across the US connected to the global economy (such as Atlanta) are still seeing stable or rising prices. The problem is the outer suburbs. We are beginning to see a shift towards prosperity in the city and decay in the suburbs. There has been quite a few articles about this as of late in mainstream publications.
By parker
Feb 29, 2008 1:57 PM | Link to this
only the media can help this crisis start writing positive things encourage people to go buy you can help turn this around people are scared bc of what the media keeps publishing please write some encouragement or oneday your job may be on the line like so many other people right now loosing their jobs find good deals ,write about smart descion making right now lets keep the economy going or its going to get bad
By MO
Feb 28, 2008 9:00 AM | Link to this
Excellent submission BrucePile!
This conversation needed some intelligent input.
BTW this problem "already" affects all of us.
By BrucePile
Feb 27, 2008 4:09 PM | Link to this
There is a prevalent mind set expressed by "a small percentage of people are living beyond their means. It's their problem. No worry." But it's this mind set that has caused the U.S. to allow the proliferation of sliced and diced debt instruments the last 20 years to the point where these have all been neatly stacked into a house of cards. And this is everyone's problem. It's a stability thing. Growing debt eventually causes one person's indiscretion to become someone else's problem. In a discussion on peak oil, I once compared peak oil with a chart on composite debt in the U.S. and refered to it as "peak debt". Someone countered with the point that oil has a geophysical cause for there to be a peak; but there is no geophysical or other such limitation for debt. But there is a limitation - stability. Sooner or later, you run debt into the condition where other people's debt is your problem even if you don't owe a dime to anyone. We have that now with only about $1 in real assets backing every $30 in fancy debt packages floating around the globe. And a cascading of defaults and monetary damage is developing with a large number of buyers of these debt instruments not even knowing who is supposed to pay off what debt. This will cause financial market problems that effect us all as the markets hate uncertainty more than anything.
By OTOH
Feb 27, 2008 1:50 AM | Link to this
A very small percentage of mortgagees have taken out loans they cannot afford. As free men and women that is their choice and their problem.
The housing bubble was predicted and many news articles and opinion articles discussed it 4 years ago. The developers and mortgagors were even more informed than me. They made their choices and should have to live with them.
There are 3 lessons everyone should learn from this: buy only what you can afford to pay for and make sure you save money every payday and do not loan more money than you can afford to lose. Amazingly simple, but some people learn only from experience.
By Wonder Why?
Feb 27, 2008 1:20 AM | Link to this
It's a shame that Atlanta has come to this. Hopefully people will stop coming when we run out of water, and we kick out the politicians at all levels who feel like we have to try to be so far ahead of everyone else, first. Why can't we manage our growth better? It's obvious that growth is not going to pass us by for long, it's just that politicians that are currently in office don't want "no growth" on their time clock. We need to be satisfied with what we got, instead of trying to figure out creative ways to shaft those of us who are or have always been here. I can do without the politicians, and so can everyone else. We need a period where we are happy with what we got, manage the growth, and then decide from there.
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