By MICHAEL E. KANELL

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

A sudden sharpening of trade tensions with China threatens to carve a piece out of Georgia’s poultry industry.

If China follows through on a threat to restrict or tax chicken and other products exported from the United States, sales would almost certainly be cut in a sector already hurt by recession.

And while the trade tiff may include posturing and bluffing on both sides, it must be taken seriously, said Toby Moore, vice president of the U.S. Poultry & Egg Export Council, based in Stone Mountain.

“Yes, it is a very real threat. Yes, we are concerned. And yes, it would affect Georgia.”

Though poultry is a statewide industry, the impact would be harsher in some places than others, said Michael Toma, director of Armstrong Atlantic State University’s Center for Regional Analysis in Savannah.

“There are concentrations northeast and northwest of Atlanta,” he said. “It has been one of our fastest-growing industries.”

A dispute between the two nations has simmered for several years, and it heated up over the weekend.

Friday, the Obama administration said it will impose duties on imported tires, arguing that the Chinese government unfairly subsidizes producers and props up its currency to keep the tires artificially cheap. Higher tariffs have been pushed by unions that contend the imports have cost thousands of American jobs.

The Chinese government rejected the accusations, labeled the move protectionism and announced its own investigation to see whether poultry and auto parts exported from the United States receive illegal subsidies.

Many experts expect a resolution rather than real trade conflict — if only because both sides have so much invested in the status quo.

In addition to being a huge source of imported goods, China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities at a moment when the U.S. is borrowing heavily to fund a massive deficit.

For some time, the U.S. trade deficit has been fueled by the influx of Chinese goods. Yet when it comes to poultry, China is the customer.

Georgia, the nation’s largest producer of chicken, last year exported roughly $722 million worth of poultry products to China, according to the U.S. Poultry & Egg Export Council. About one-quarter of Georgia’s chicken are exported and about one-quarter of that goes to China, according to the council.

The Gainesville-based Georgia Poultry Federation, which represents major poultry companies and producers, sees business health depending on “free and fair trade,” said spokesman Mike Giles. “We hope that China will continue to allow poultry products to be imported,” he said. “China is a very important market.”

Poultry in Georgia in 2006 was a $12 billion-a-year sector that employed 51,515 workers and indirectly supported 50,132 more, according to a University of Georgia study.