By Old Real Estate Lawyer

June 26, 2008 11:51 AM | Link to this

It takes a cut of 300 news room jobs at the Post to finally get some positive news here! After all The Post’s wrecking economic ruin on Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast was bound to spread to The Palm Beach Post sooner or later. A whopping 22% PLUNGE IN JOBS at The Post could have been prevented with fair and unbiased coverage of the housing market. Instead we got a gang-bang of negativity from Post reporters (J O wasn’t the only perp but he was the worst) which drove thousands of residents whose jobs were linked to housing to the unemployment line! Low blow attacks included such unethical and dishonest reporting as MASQUERADING FORECLOSURE CONSULTANTS as impartial real estate experts and hyping their fabricated housing horror stories to scare away home buyers! Other Post special tactics included the deliberate DISTORTION and INFLATION of Realty Trac’s monthly foreclosure numbers headlined in The Post! EVERY EDITOR and BUSINESS REPORTER knew that the media DISTORTED and INFLATED REALTY TRAC’S foreclosure stats by 300%! Even Realty Trac’s VP Rick Sharga said the news media distorted and inflated the foreclosures by 300%. IT’S A FACT! GOOGLE…REALTY TRAC SAYS MEDIA DISTORTS FORECLOSURE DATA…you will see a dozen articles on the media scam. Realty Trac tracks foreclosure filings NOT foreclosures and THERE ARE AT LEAST 3 FILINGS for every home in foreclosure. The Post MISLEAD READERS that every filing was a HOME BEING FORECLOSED a 300% distortion! Reporters did this to SCARE AWAY HOME BUYERS! Reporters like JEFF OSTROWSKI at THE PALM BEACH POST cherry pick and data mine for negative stories on real estate then they TWIST THE DATA to make matters look even worse! Did you know that 42% of homes in Florida DON’T EVEN HAVE A MORTGAGE and are owned free and clear! You won’t read that in this sleazy newspaper! THE PALM BEACH POST (and the rest of the media) have been HAMMERING real estate for years to bring down prices! High prices hurt poor people they reason hence all the mostly FABRICATED DOOM AND GLOOM articles. The PALM BEACH POST POUNDED the REAL ESTATE MARKET with deliberately FABRICTED, DISTORTED and INFLATED FORECLOSURE HEADLINES for the past three years! The FORECLOSURE HEADLINES were INFLATED 300% according to the media’s own source for foreclosure data…REALTY TRAC! How more BLATANT, MISLEADING and BIASED REPORTING can you get!

By WAKE UP

June 26, 2008 1:15 PM | Link to this

W-W-W-W-WH-WH-WH-WHAT?!?!? This is preposterious, there is no way that the median actually rose. We’re still expecting another 50% to go, right? Well, it’s probably a blip anyways, Curious MUST be right, the median will be $160k before we know it.

Hey maybe we’re just settling back into a normal trend of little ups and downs from month to month….nahhhh…

On a lighter note, Curious might be able to get a little more the condo now.

By cmgr

June 26, 2008 1:16 PM | Link to this

Amazing graph and to see how very little of the boom’s gains have been eroded. Now the turnaround starts. That wasn’t so bad after all. But then, we knew that, didn’t we.

By ChicagoMath

June 26, 2008 1:23 PM | Link to this

This ‘Old RE Lawyer’ must be a former POST staffer, with a vendetta.

It aint the 300 layoffs that inspired a post about an uptick in price, its the recent sale of the Trump property. That $100 million sale during such a slow marker will skew the median price all out of proportion.

Next month, assuming there will be no more extravagant Palm Beach sales, the median will be back down once again, probably to around $310,000.

For now, and into the near future, the only ones in PB County getting their money’s worth for their monthly housing expendature, are renters.

By Now Hiring

June 26, 2008 1:47 PM | Link to this

Maybe after all the job cuts occur at The Post, they can now go out and actually volunteer for their favorite agendas like Barack Obama, Green Peace, MoveOn, Code Pink, Planned Parenthood, and other leftist organizations they embrace. Happy hunting! And don’t forget those mortgage payments and those wonderful high property taxes you push to be raised.

By To Wake Up & CMGR

June 26, 2008 2:02 PM | Link to this

Could you guys really be this dense?

You get all excited about a little rise in the median from last month. Take a look at April to May of 07. Look familiar? How did that work out for you.

This year is shaping up to be even worse than last year. This could be the worst year on record in terms of numbers of sales. Prices are 15% off of last years levels.

And you idiots think that this is over? Never mind the 4 year supply of homes out there.

Seriously, could you really be this dense?

By Median v Average

June 26, 2008 2:19 PM | Link to this

How sad, Chicago, that you don’t understand the difference between median and average. The sale of Mr. Trump’s mansion will have no discernible effect on the median value of homes. You must be so proud of what they have taught you in your primary education system up there in the great heartland of middle america.

You see, median would be the point where half of the homes sold below a value and half above that same value. i.e. (that means for example) in the month of May when there were 702 sales, 300 sales below and 300 sales above the middle two transactions that averaged to the $330,900. The value of most expensive transaction has no real bearing on this value. The only real anomaly that would skew the median is if there was a large discrepancy between the values of the “middle” transactions. I’ll stop now since I think I’m getting well over your head.

Just remember that MEDIAN has values above and below and that AVERAGE is the education that you received up in the great heartland.

By Lisa Rowe

June 26, 2008 2:24 PM | Link to this

So I assume that the big purchase over on the island brought up the median home price and not the home price of the regular home. You did look at the data to answer this question, right?

By Lisa Rowe

June 26, 2008 2:26 PM | Link to this

So I assume that the big purchase over on the island brought up the median home price and not the home price of the regular home. You did look at the data to answer this question, right?

By Lisa Rowe

June 26, 2008 2:26 PM | Link to this

So I assume that the big purchase over on the island brought up the median home price and not the home price of the regular home. You did look at the data to answer this question, right?

By Tom

June 26, 2008 2:41 PM | Link to this

Way to paint a silver lining on the data Jeff, NOT. Whatever, report however you want, it’s your paper. The numbers are more positive then you’re letting on. I’m not saying that prices have hit a bottom. It’s just that the number of sales, dwindling number of active listings, and dearth of new construction are all signs of hope, much more than you’re letting on. Again, we are not near the end of this bust yet, but we’re getting there and you’re not willing to acknowledge it. It’s becoming clear that you and your dwindling readership will probably realize this after it happens. Way to get ahead of the story.

By WAKE UP

June 26, 2008 2:52 PM | Link to this

Apparently some people have no appreciation of sarcasm. Um, let’s see am I really that dense? You must be one of those people who really expects the median to drop to $160k…I’ve got real bad news for you…$160k as a median in S FL is not going to happen. The median was only over $400k for a few months - a true lead / lag median would place the a reasonable median somewhere around $395k. Which means we’re what really only about only 17% off that running number. We’ll possibly suffer another 10-15% loss over the next year and skid in somewhere around the upper $200k range ($270-295) before a true turn around occurs. But please all this talk for months and months how we’ll be 50% and 70% off - it’s ridiculous.

Anyone notice why new home’s aren’t selling? It’s because the builders haven’t reduced their prices enough. They can’t compete with the prices of the existing homes. So why don’t they just keep lowering their prices? It’s all supply and demand right? Not selling enough, just drop your price until you do, right? It’s very easy to say from the comfy perch of your couch, but reality is they can’t build for less than a certain amount and make a profit - why expend all your resources to lose money when you can sit back and do nothing and lose money - essentially they’re losing either way, so trim back and wait out the storm.

Just look at the auto industry - SUVs not moving - drop the price right? Wrong - shut down the factory and wait it out or re-tool to something else.

By WAKE UP

June 26, 2008 3:07 PM | Link to this

PS - it’s actually nice to see that Jeff has attempted a positive spin - Sun Sentinel has the same story, but in a much more negative light.

By Agreeing with Wake Up?

June 26, 2008 3:20 PM | Link to this

I can’t believe it!

I actually agree with you on something.

Median dropping 30% off the peak seems reasonable. By the way, 30% is still a lot worse that most housing “busts” that have happened in the past.

50-70% for the entire area was just crazy. 50% in certain pockets has happened, but not over the entire county.

A median in the high 200 range would fit it just about right once you look at pre-boom medians and figure typical house appreciation, maybe even with a little bit of a kicker to account for the boom.

By me

June 27, 2008 1:25 PM | Link to this

“A median in the high 200 range would fit it just about right…”

That seems about right. Yet one more reasonable observation today. What’s going on here?

It will be interesting to see whether there will be any housing-value effects given gas prices. My guess is that gas prices aren’t high enough to cause disincentive to live far away. But if they increase at the rate they presently are, it would be hard to rule out such a phenomenon.

By to me

June 27, 2008 2:38 PM | Link to this

if gas does spur relocation to inner city areas it would bode well for the condominium sector.

By Median Price Wake Up

June 27, 2008 2:53 PM | Link to this

Correct me if I’m wrong here but median prices going up might simply mean that more higher priced homes sold than lower priced homes. Total unit sales as well as sales within a particular price range (say $200k to $300K) could still be way down and median prices rising.

Example for simplicity:

We have 5 sales in the market this month at $1 Mill, $750K, $500k, $300K, and $200K. The median is $500K. Next month sales fall to 3 and they’re $750K $600K and $400K. The median has now increased to $600K.

But, if you’re in the $200 to $300K range nothing’s selling so that median price increase doesn’t mean squat.

By Curious

June 27, 2008 10:01 PM | Link to this

Hmmmmmmmm!

Am surprised to see the number of folks above who are not deluded by NAR, FAR OR PBCRA’s numbers.

Traditional rough indicators of normal average current home prices, = 2.5 to 3.0 times local (declining) family incomes; or 100 times current (declining) monthly rental income (minus of course the costs of how much work needs to be done to upgrade to current code and design standards).

Have you checked recently to see how that computes? The low numbers may come as a shock, and reflect what continues to go on in the local residential RE market.

Again, no big surprise!

Unfortunately, not a good time for landlords either — unless you have exceptionally unique and desirable properties, long ago paid for.

Cheers!

By 3rdworldlover

June 30, 2008 3:25 PM | Link to this

Jeff,

It makes no sense to include Palm Beach Island sales data to calculate a mean or median value for West Palm Beach real estate. They’re two totally different markets.