By steve

January 8, 2008 2:58 PM | Link to this

The sooner people realize that we are in a RE Depression..the better to figure out a way to protect their finances and make the best decisions going forward.To quote the NAR after 2 yrs of the same quotes is a joke at best.Either you have a clue and wont state it or do not realize what SOFLA will look like in 2 yrs.People better get prepared b/c it will be a nightmare for most homeowners.Again,if the cost of renting vs. ownership is at all time lows,inventory at all time highs,affordability still near all time lows, and now mortages will be tougher to qualify for..do the math…now start stating the facts so the 90% of people who barely read the newspapers can find some help NOW.And stop hoping it will get better.And start investigating the local builders if you want a story.The fraud was rampant.The same with many local realtors..start looking at their transaction history..lets do something about it,get rid of all the bad apples..we know their names and start cleaning up the mess.

By Muddmuddiesmkt

January 8, 2008 3:10 PM | Link to this

From article :

January 8 2008: 1:43 PM EST

WASHINGTON (AP) — The housing market will weaken through 2009, with a turnaround unlikely until 2010, the chief executive of mortgage finance company Fannie Mae said Tuesday.

Fannie Mae CEO Daniel Mudd said the mortgage crisis and its effect on the housing market will be a drag on the entire U.S. economy…..

“The health of corporate America this year will depend on “how we get through the toughest housing correction in our lifetimes,” said Mudd.”

“He reaffirmed the prediction made recently by Fannie Mae, the largest financer and guarantor of U.S. home loans, that American home prices will fall by 10 percent to 12 percent from their 2005 peak before the housing market can rebound, likely in 2010. “

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/08/news/companies/fannie_housing.ap/index.htm

By Get in the Game

January 8, 2008 3:11 PM | Link to this

Whatever! Who cares what this guy says?

Guy has a ridiculous job of being an ‘economist’ while on the payroll of a fee-for-service entity.

CONFLICT OF INTEREST.

Jeff, read my comments on - what to do from this point?

By NotFyunny

January 8, 2008 4:05 PM | Link to this

Great. Now NAR wants to kill mkt further.

Tell potential buyers housing going down another 20%, no rebound till 2010.

Now potential buyers say “I’m collecting 5% even on stupid CDs .”

“Why throw downpayment, buying costs and carrying costs, RE taxes, Insurance, into something SINKING another 20% as per the very people who should be boosting sales ?”

Nice marketing, Yun.

By Max Can Relax

January 8, 2008 4:14 PM | Link to this

The stock market is down 9% in the last few sessions.

If all that is going to happen is a temporary drop of 12% in houses prices since 2005, I am happy with that. Actually though, I would be surprised to even see THAT happen. (Uh-oh - forward-looking statement from Max.) Last month they were up nationally, not down.

A quick check of MLS shows me inventory down by 10% in my area in the past few weeks, exactly when I would expect everyone to try to sell their houses.

Inventory could go down or up, it matters not. These things turn on a dime. Life is normal.

By Michael Fink

January 8, 2008 6:19 PM | Link to this

Maybe Yun is trying a new tactic; not lying as much as his predecessor (David L, the man who defined the word eternal optimist, and also lied through his teeth at every possible moment).

It’s obvious to everyone at this point that housing has a significant correction ahead of it, for the NAR to continue to deny it just further erodes their position, and, frankly, nobody believes it anymore. It’s on the front page of every single national newspaper, for them to cry “recovery” in the middle of the biggest housing crash since the great depression is just silly. Hopefully they finally figured it out, and decided to stop their deceitful ways. And, besides, that makes it so much easier for Max and his buddies to go “steal” these properties at 10% off their bubble peak prices.

And no, Max, 12% off 2005 is not “all that is going to happen”.. Sorry to be the one to clue you in here, but in case you haven’t noticed, we have record inventory, and another huge wave of ARM resets coming up this year. Values continue to erode, and will accelerate the drop throughout this year.

And, remember, 12% off 2005 prices is really about 20% off peak prices (because of the effect of inflation). We’re getting there.. Another 20% or so to go (using Max’s numbers from above).

CFC about to go under. I’m sure that is also because they are making so much money on all those homes they have to repo, right Max? I mean, as you tell it, prices are up everywhere across the country. Why can’t CFC sell these homes and recoup their losses? You need to give them a call Max, they need your help (especially since the identify PBC as one of their worst markets currently).

By Mary

January 8, 2008 6:31 PM | Link to this

The housing market is beyond just being bad; it is awful. Speaking from experience, two Open houses and no attendees and no offers for a house on the market for months at a value well below others in the neighborhood. Friends, you can argue until the cows come home about the future but right now we have a real estate disaster on our hands and when it turns around is anyone’s guess.

By Max Says Fink Needs a Drink

January 8, 2008 7:50 PM | Link to this

Fink you break me up. In case you didn’t notice, the Dow Jones was down nearly 2% today — and it was off 2% the other day. And it may be so again tomorrow.

With $100/barrel oil, a financially unsustainable war in Iraq, and a new war front being opened up in Iran, about the LAST thing anyone has to worry about is whether Countrywide declares bankruptcy.

You are a nucking fut, Fink — fiddling around in housing figures while Rome burns.

What happens when oil reaches $200 a barrel, Fink? What happens when a wave of catch-up prices increases doubles your rent, then doubles it again — all in 2 years?

How does 8K a month sound for rent, Fink?

If you had any brains, Fink, you would buy the first house you can get your hands on, at low interest rates, at a fixed payment that can’t go up.

If a wave of hyperinflation comes, Fink, the prices of houses will be no exception.

By Mary Mary Supernumerary

January 8, 2008 8:03 PM | Link to this

Max to Mary:

Owning several brokerages, as I do, I have to hire and fire people all the time.

When I have to fire them, it is because they are brainless twits, salespeople who thing it is a “disaster” responsible for them not making sales.

NEWS FLASH, MARY: Your ineptitude as a salesperson does NOT constitute a “disaster,” an economic depression, a force majeure or anything else, except your inability to sell.

Tell me, Mary, have you offered attractive financing on the house? Have you learned how to take 10 minutes and insert a digital photo into an HTML document on your website? Have you learned how to advertise in Spanish, or French, or Portuguese, the languages that represent the MAJORITY of your potential buyers?

OR have you — let me guess — continued to do things exactly the way your grandmother did them, with the open houses, and prayers someone will spot your listing on MLS?

Speaking as an employer, Mary, the disaster is YOU.

By And Max Adds

January 8, 2008 9:08 PM | Link to this

In January through November of this month, FAR recorded over 6500 sales of single family homes in Palm Beach County.

That’s JUST realtor sales of existing homes, JUST single family houses.

Over 6500.

Someone sold them.

Now “Mary” up there is probably a ringer. She sounds like she is seeing things from a “civilian” point of view. However, “she” does afford me the opportunity to get on my soap box for the realtors out there, including my own teams.

When you THINK everything is a disaster, when you adopt the mindset of the Mike Finks and the other lunatics who see nothing but disaster, then your efforts become nothing but disaster.

Ironically, so many facets of the economy are in trouble, real estate may once again be seen as the only bright spot, in a year or two.

What we do in difficult times is not throw up our hands and say “I can’t do it - it’s a disaster.” We find the way to cope, we find the way to achieve.

I see the storms clouds everyone can see on the stock market.

I hear Bush’s clarion call to war in Iran.

I hear the body counts of young Americans in Iraq until I can’t listen anymore.

I watch Bush’s s**t-eating grin as the dollar drops, Haliburton spreads its tentacles, Dick Cheney gets richer, and Republican bible-thumping politicans get marched off to jail one after another, for buggering little boys.

Yeah, ther eis plenty wrong, the LEAST of which is the housing market.

But I don’t throw up my hands and say: “It’s a disaster. We can’t do it. We can’t even try.”

Americans have conquered greater fears, persevered through much tougher times. People like Fink or “Mary” above only weaken our cause and get in the way.

Nonetheless, we will again persevere, carrying the dead weight of people like Chicago Boy or Fink along the way. We are built to withstand disasters.

By OOps

January 8, 2008 9:16 PM | Link to this

November of this year. HEE HEE

By Hmmmmm

January 8, 2008 10:33 PM | Link to this

So FAR reported 6,500 homes sold from January to November. That’s about 600 a month, but didn’t the PB Post report 1,000 foreclosed homes per month and current single family home inventory stands at just under 16,000 homes in PBC.

So assuming no more homes come up for sale it will take us 27 months just to work through that inventory not counting the additions of newly foreclosed homes.

Not to mention banks don’t seem like they’re much inclined to loan money for a home unless you have a good amount of equity.

How is it anyone would believe there isn’t anything wrong with the housing market? Sure the market is working, that is working to bring supply and demand back into balance but at much lower prices than their highs.

By someSales

January 8, 2008 10:39 PM | Link to this

Finally, a few sales.

The ones I am failiar with have been sellers who were serious, did not get emotional over missing peak.

They have sold in an area where similar properties were on market long before them and are still unsold now.

Other comps have let listings expire repeatedly, have come back at slightly lower prices. Still no sale.

As has been suggested here, do not put a property in this market unless very serious and price accordingly.

You will sell, there are buyers.

Price it right and start packing.

Otherwise please stop wasting your time and our time.

By Get in the Game

January 8, 2008 11:40 PM | Link to this

More Hints Jeff

What about Top Ten stories for 2008

1) The Four Horsemen shall reappear House debt Credit card debt Auto debt Education debt

Credit card, auto, and education debt is also securitized Debtor must re-pay the creditor at some point…

2) Housing will rebound in Q1/Q2 and then slowly shift to Q3/Q4 and then 2009 Why waste the print and stop guessing…and print unknown or TBD

3) The year of acronyms shall permeate the financial markets and front page headlines MBS, CDO, CLO, SIV,… Just confusing the investor, money manager, and everyone else…

4) The subprime crisis is still not a problem and the US economy is firing on all cylinders Sure…

5) American companies’ earnings are still great and rosy for 2008 and 2009 Price/earnings ratio for a reason…

6) US bank and brokerage stocks are cheap Yep, keep listening to the pundits on that one!…

7) The continent of Asia wants to acquire more major positions in US companies Just read the papers for the Q4 2007 and you can gather of sense of the shift…

8) Club Fed, Greenscam, and the US govt shall continue to save (in no specific order) house owners, American companies’ balance sheets, and everyone else with their extended hand Lackluster, at best…

9) Hardly anyone will go to jail for losing billions of shareholders’ money on risk adverse investments (because they shielded the information from investors) As if upper-level management ever (a limited few) gets penalized…

10) Finally, almost forgot: GDP looks great, the American consumer is resilient, the housing bottom is Q3 2008, debt is not a problem, and the dollar will have a major rebound.

By Steve

January 9, 2008 12:10 AM | Link to this

Max, you’re losing your liberal mind and any money you may have had.

By Max applauds Steve

January 9, 2008 12:25 AM | Link to this

Well Steve, McCain and Hillary aren’t the only comeback kids on the block. I see how you are trying to reassert your position as the stupidest person on the blog.

So according to you, Steve, your god W. has the economy in fine shape.

You don’t think a crashing stock market, foundering dollar, war in Iraq, war in Iran (coming soon to a theatre of battle near you), oil prices at $100 a barrel and rising, and unprotected borders pose any economic perils, do you Steve?

We are sailing into dire straights under the aegis of Republican greed and indifference, but you think all we should be worried about is whether the 5% of the population who would like to sell their houses may have to take 12% less than record prices to do so.

Stupid is as stupid does…and NOBODY does it like Steve!!!

By Steve

January 9, 2008 12:45 AM | Link to this

Since when do liberals care about protecting the borders?

You calling me stupid, that’s a laugh. You’ve been on this blog for about a year now talking about how wonderful the RE market is. I sold my house in late 04 and bought gold and CD’s. Your problem Max, is that you have a fool for a teacher. Yourself.

By Max Says Steve is Stupid...To the MAX!

January 9, 2008 4:59 AM | Link to this

Steve, crawl back under the toilet that kept you hidden for the past few months.

Border safety is the NUMBER 1 LIBERAL issue because your Commander in Thief, possibly the only stupider person on the planet than you, has robbed this country of its safety and its integrity for the last 8 years, conspicuously REFUSING to act to close the borders.

Whose issue did you THINK this was, you MORON? Did you get your political education from the carrot juice king on radio?

Part of the deal to get Bush cheated into the White House was that he would provide a low-cost labor force for his manufacturer buddies. Another part is that his sister-in-law — a Columbian with questionable ties to some REALLY nasty people, misses her wetback friends and relatives.

The next Bush political campaign isn’t Jeb, as the misguided expect. It’s George “P” Bush — and it’s all in Spanish!!! Maybe you should have gotten a clue, Steve, when “W” went around for the last few years making speeches in Spanish with that s**t-eating grin. The motherf—— can’t even speak English and he is up there making speeches in Spanish throughout the SouthWest.

So take “Dr. Savage” (who doesn’t exist) and shove him up your stupid a*s. By the way, who is it that you think is Dr. Savage? He’s a liberal Jew (Michael Weiner), who earned the world’s most liberal degree (Ph.D. in “Nutritional Ethnomedicine”) from the country’s most liberal school (U.C. Berkely) and then cynically found a way to make money off of STUPID CONSERVATIVE IDIOTS LIKE YOU.

And the FUNNIEST thing, Steve, is that I am part Hispanic, Spanish-speaking since birth, and I have to argue with conservative IDIOTS like you to try to save English in this country, and not have it over-run by people who are here illegally.

You SCHMUCK, it is the inherently stupid like you that allow the Bushes to laugh at all of us, while they spread the tentacles of their dynasty — in Spanish.

Your problem, Steve is that you have MIERDA for brains.

By Steve

January 9, 2008 8:41 AM | Link to this

Max, goofy bastard, you think mexican’s vote republican? Liberals don’t want to touch the illegal immigration issue because they are future liberal voters, obviously. You really are a silly little guy. Get your head out of those French books and look around once in a while.

By Mary to Max

January 9, 2008 9:14 AM | Link to this

I would suggest you reread my post and then you can apologize for making this personal and calling me a disaster. Who said anything about being a salesperson or working for a realtor? I’m a homeowner who gave a listing to a large national realty company and it is they who held two Open Houses and have done all the suggested sales methods you’ve indicated. Seeing your putdowns and the way you refer to people and employees, leads me to believe that the lucky people are those who no longer work for you. If you were on the Titanic, you would be stopping people from fleeing by alledging that it was merely a minor leak the ship was experiencing.

By Stupid, Stupid Maxipad

January 9, 2008 9:15 AM | Link to this

Stupid, Stupid Maxipad says: “If all that is going to happen is a temporary drop of 12% in houses prices since 2005, I am happy with that. Actually though, I would be surprised to even see THAT happen.”

Nov 05 median for SFH was 421,500.

Nov 07 median for SFH was 345,700.

That’s about an 18% drop. Your 12% seems like a silly pipe dream.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Come on Maxipad, it doesn’t matter. Tell everybody how rich and successful you are.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

By max

January 9, 2008 11:05 AM | Link to this

i would like to take a moment to apoligize to the people i have so rudely offended. please dont blame me for being such a baffoon, it was the way my mother and father raised me,

from now on just look at me as someone that has turrets syndrome, only i cant control what i type, instead of what i say,

By G.O.D.

January 9, 2008 11:20 AM | Link to this

Quite a conversation, going here. To read Miami’s version:

eyeonmiami.blogspot.com

By Max Treasures This Priceless Bit of Steve Wisdom

January 9, 2008 11:48 AM | Link to this

This bit of comedy from Steve simply can not be missed:

“Max, goofy bastard, you think mexican’s vote republican? Liberals don’t want to touch the illegal immigration issue because they are future liberal voters, obviously. You really are a silly little guy. Get your head out of those French books and look around once in a while.”

Steve, you really are the stupidest person here, I think your admirers will be back shortly to proclaim you once again the King of Stupid.

First of all, wetbacks are not citizens and they can’t vote, you pathetic idiot.

The rest of your argument, restated is: Liberals don’t want to let people in the country who might vote for them.

God love you, Steve, it’s unbelievable you are not living in assisted care.

Or are you?

BTW Steve: My languages, in order of stregnth: French, Swedish, Spanish, and after that start my acquired ones, including English.

Let’s try arguing in YOUR 4-th best language one time, okay Shithead?

By Hebephrenic Harry Still Clueless

January 9, 2008 12:02 PM | Link to this

Now here is a guy so clueless, so idiotic, he can not even follow the converstion.

I was commenting on Jeff’s entry — which is theoretically what we are here to do. Jeff quoted Lawrence Yun, and I commented on the information provided.

Harry’s gets his one testicle up his abdomen because he thinks that is my forecast, and he is arguing with ME for something someone else said.

It is just unbelievable!!! How stupid can a guy like this be and eat his red jello unassisted?

And for the umpteenth time, that 421K mark was a desperate and ephemeral response to a hurricane. In fact, in the ENTIRE history of PBC, there have only been 5 months when the median price was higher than 400K!!! That’s your “bubble.”

As for my wealth, I suggest this experiment once again. If you have a good-looking sister, HA-HA-arry (not likely, but if you do), just give me her phone number, and we’ll see if I have the means to be persuasive.

If you are young enough, your Mom might do.

If you play your cards right, HArry, maybe you can get something out of the deal.

We’re all watching, HA-HA-rry.

ROFLMAO!!!

By You Go Maxipad

January 9, 2008 12:02 PM | Link to this

Forget bragging about your language skills, lets hear more about how much money you have!!!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

By HA HA HA HA your mom and sister.

January 9, 2008 12:07 PM | Link to this

See above, Harry.

I think I have what it takes to buy out your whole family, a million times over.

What do YOU have, Harry?

Still working at WAL-MART for $8.50 an hour? Stick to the third shift, where you don’t have to talk to anyone or be challenged intellectually — and pick up that fat shift differential.

LOL!

By Mary Mary quite Head-Airy

January 9, 2008 12:14 PM | Link to this

So let me get this straight, “Mary”:

You have no data, no figures, no knowledge about real estate by your own admission, but YOU have declared the real estate market a “disaster” because nobody came to your open houses and the house down the street hasn’t sold yet.

That about right?

WHO do you think you are kidding, you teen-age bimbo? Shut up and get to home economics class before I fix you up on a date with Brightman.

By Mary

January 9, 2008 12:26 PM | Link to this

It’s a shame you too have a problem with attacking people instead of addressing the issues…Keep repeating to yourself that all is well in the real estate market and maybe your fantasy will come true

By MAX THANKS max

January 9, 2008 12:31 PM | Link to this

Now there’s a brilliant intellect above, presuming to speak for me. What is this, the hundredth time he has done this?

I thank him for not having the brains, guts or cerebral aptitude to challenge me. He thinks he is making a statement about me. We all know he wound up making a statement about what a loser he is. Another high-school disaster story.

BUT I AM GRATEFUL for all the amusement afforded me. I am the Lord of the Manor of mentally deficient serfs.

I thank all, the renters, the losers, the liars, the adolescents, the senile, the bums, those we used to call scum of the earth (they are now “republican conservatives”), the fools, the knaves, the finks, the conspiracy theorists, and all the others who have made me King of the Log, and pledged their ever-lasting loyal opposition.

Here I am on a Swiftian adventure, a towerng figure in the Land of the Lilliputians, watching the frantic motion of their little arms, straining to hear the nonsense shouted in their tiny voices. Oh! If they could stand on my shoulders, they would see what is not visible to them. They would see the vistas that are mine, the majestic canyons, the endless rivers, the world beyond their tiny brains. Alas, none of them will be lifted up when I offer my hand, for they fear my size, my grandeur, my presence.

And so it is friends, they will be here for your amusement day after day, shouting their tiny expostulations, offering their paltry insults, all to no avail, for by offering their ineffectual protestations, they ensure forever that I am their Lord and Master!!! And in opposing, they will forever put the question:

QUO VADIS, DOMINI?

By moregoodnewsMaxi

January 9, 2008 12:52 PM | Link to this

Ironically, the RE mkt is so bad it is causing failures that eventually WILL lead to rebound. (Levitt, other bldrs and now maybe WCI will stop pumping out new homes on already bulging inventory)

Unfortunately for thousands of stockholders, laid off workers, the process is going to take a while and be very painful for some.

“January 09, 2008: 12:14 PM EST

NEW YORK (Associated Press) - Shares of WCI Communities Inc. tumbled Wednesday after Standard & Poor’s affirmed the ratings of the struggling homebuilder at junk status.

Shares fell 49 cents, or 15 percent, to $2.70 in midday trading, after hitting a new low of $2.67 earlier in the session. Shares have traded between $3 and $24.20 in the past 12 months.

In a note to investors, S&P said the Bonita Springs, Fla.-based company needs to negotiate more liberal terms governing a $700 million secured revolving line of credit and a $263 million secured bank loan, or its unsecured debt could be accelerated.

On Monday, WCI said its secured creditors extended a temporary waiver of performance to Jan. 16. During the extension, WCI hopes to finalize a longer-term amendment that would give it a financial cushion.

If WCI is not successful, the lenders could potentially foreclose on certain collateral. In that case, WCI said it cannot guarantee it would be able to secure alternate financing, which could hurt the company’s ability to maintain sufficient working capital.”

By Maxipad tricks himself

January 9, 2008 1:05 PM | Link to this

Maxipad says: “I think I have what it takes to buy out your whole family, a million times over.”

But Maxipad said: “How is it the poorest peope here are the ones who brag about their wealth?”

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

By FL Voter

January 9, 2008 1:13 PM | Link to this

I’m voting for Obama on the 29th, and in November, I will be voting for the upcominh Obama/Clinton instead of the upcoming Guiliani/McCain ticket.

Romney is history.

By 2005

January 9, 2008 1:21 PM | Link to this

Psst maxi-

stop touting “this very site” sales listings to prove more 2005/2006 resales very profitable than not.

Pages updated- (only 10 now)

number of 2005/2006 resales even worse looking.

i won’t tell anybody.

By Sorry 'Bout That

January 9, 2008 1:27 PM | Link to this

The real estate market is Dead. The free ride is Over. Tuff. Get on with your lives, those of you who have such.

By nemo

January 9, 2008 1:41 PM | Link to this

With all this moaning and groaning, I guess we can expect a mass migration out of the country. No? I thought not.

By Max welcomes moregoodnews

January 9, 2008 2:33 PM | Link to this

You actually make a valid point, moregood.

If we drew a trend line for housing values, we would see a straight line surrounded by an oscillating wave representing actual sales values.

We would see sales above the trend line, as in the last few years, followed by sales below the trend line, like now, which the great unwashed here think is some kind of aberration. It is not.

The problem is this herd mentality. Everyone tries to buy at the same, then everybody tries to sell at the same time, like now.

How are homebuilders supposed to match production to the unforeseen peaks and valleys? neither they nor I have the answer to that.

Yes, in retropsect they should have stopped building, but how do you shut down and start up a whole industry onb a dime?

Housing starts wil slow way down in the area, and guess what happens then. As soon as we move froma valley to another peak, there will be a shortage, with dramatic headlines, soaring prices, and all the trimmings.

+++++++++++++++++++

Hebephrenic Horseshit HA-HA-rry: You have still not posted your sister’s phone number. How about your daughter, if she is of legal age and doesn’t look anything like you?

We are waiting….

++++++++++++++++++

2005 - That’s a good idea: don’t tell anybody. We won’t miss you.

Current transactions about 15 to 1 winners.

Deal with it, Stupid.

By Get in the Game

January 9, 2008 3:59 PM | Link to this

Original post Q2 2007…about this housing market and WCI…

In the end, I am confused with all the hype poised towards the residential sector. The prices doubled from 2000-2005, and in many cases in FL, much more than that. Florida homeowners should be running to the bank, not crying so much. You could be living in Oklahoma, Indiana, or Detroit…enjoy those returns.

So, if you have a 130%+ increase over five years, cash out. If you do not need to cash out, wait.

Any institution (CALPERS, Harvard Endowment Fund) or private entity (Warren Buffett) would LOVE 25%+ returns for five straight years (for doing nothing). Why again, doesn’t CALPERS, Harvard, or Warren Buffett own any residential real estate? Oh yeah, almost forgot, they are not S-E-E-I-N-G the true value in the pricing and they are not I-N-V-E-S-T-O-R-S.

In most cases, no improvement in fundamentals, adding significant value (square footage, not the APPEARANCE of value (L-U-S-H landscaping and some paint)), or anything besides just sitting there was done to most properties, but still furnishing a 25%+ yield?

The S&P 500 just took 7 years to rebound from all-time highs; but

Residential real estate IS different, IS insulated, you truly mean IS an emotional wreck of “opinion of value”, inefficiency, and immunity from the supply/demand fundamentals that apply to just about everything else in the open market.

So what if FL home prices drop 10% - 15% in 2007; AND

Another 10% - 15% drop in 2008…SO WHAT

And another in 10% - 15% drop in 2009

Does it truly matter? The individuals who acquired properties in 2000-2002, in most cases STILL have a 100%+ return WITH the drop in prices.

All markets rise and fall. And South Florida is going to fall (in prices) as well. The funny part, the longer Sellers wait, the more multi-billion dollar companies file for bankruptcy, and ultimately the more pain Sellers shall feel.

Perfect example, WCI. Carl Icahn (billionaire) offered WCI $22/share on March 13, 2007. But WCI actually MADE FUN of Icahn and his “insufficient” offer (reads like local Sellers). Well, now that stock is trading at less than $9/share. Real funny, I tell you. And, by the way, WCI shall continue to decline, because Goldman Sachs reported no one, that means GLOBALLY wants to put in an offer. Real, real funny.

So, again why is everyone crying?

Take your profits (which are better than most asset classes for doing NO work); or

Wait until 2012+ when the market returns to normal 3% - 5% annual appreciation, once again.

Trust me, not many people were complaining (even the NAR/FAR cheerleaders) when prices were clipping at 25%+ returns in many areas of the country in the 2002-2004 timeframe. So, why start complaining now?

2009? That’s a dream. Every six months, these “pundits” have been adjusting their rebound timeline to the right (about six months, go figure).

But I am sticking with 2010-2012 for up and down appreciation. And 2012 for NORMAL appreciation.

By Max Admonishes Get

January 9, 2008 4:46 PM | Link to this

Get, if you don’t want to attract harassment on this board, stop making sense.

Actually, it’s not the owners who are complaining. It’s the renters, circus folk and conspriacy theorists, living in sub-human conditions and hoping to even the score in life.

If you read what I said above about markets being above and below the trend line, that’s actually consistent with what you are talking about when you say “up and down cycles.”

Our disagreement in the past was just that I was reluctant to predict the future, or even offer a “forecast.”

By Lets Review

January 9, 2008 5:11 PM | Link to this

so far today, we found out that -

Max’s mother was passed around from ship to ship between spanish, swedish, english and french sailors

with pbl mall Borders closing, people from the hood will invade other malls and make white people scared and order their music cds through the internet now on

boca raton mall leads the nation of malls in murders

mary has a crush on max

hahahahaha guy still wants to know how much max has in life as he works the midnight shift at walmart stocking maxipads on the shelf

steve is afraid of mexicans who are republicans and will buy before he does

max thinks that fink might have brains

people are asking for the phone number of harrys sister

nemo knows more than others

fannie mae ceo will change his predictions from 2010 to 2008 if he gets a buyer for his home

stock market has the worst start since the 1930’s

max does not offer benefits for his employees

and on wednesday, the sun will rise again and there will be more bickering on the price of oil, who has money, real estate and why mary realtors do not speak french or spanish

By re-sales

January 9, 2008 5:14 PM | Link to this

maxi,

the re-sales on PBP site i am looking at do show losses on many 2005/2006 prices paid.

Are you looking at a different set of listings ?

The page one, first listing of the ones i checked show 128 Leisureville Blvd sold in Dec for 135,000 and Dec 04 previous sale of 162,000.

Is this the same set of listings or are you refering to some other ?

By Max Reviews Let's Review

January 9, 2008 9:17 PM | Link to this

Let’s Review: I have to take exception to something you said.

I am seriously re-thinking the notion of Fink having brains.

By Things are looking up!

January 9, 2008 9:51 PM | Link to this

Good news, at least for me. I finally rented out my SFH today. Lease is signed. $1000/month. My PITA is $894. First, last, two months security deposit. Just like the old days. I’ll take it. Paid ads in newspapers did nothing. Online ads did nothing. Word of mouth by neighbors is what did it. I’ll buy my old neighbor a nice dinner! Things are looking up in ‘08! Yeah for me. At least the bleeding has stopped!!! Now if we can only get gasoline down to 2 bucks???!!

By Max assails re-sales

January 9, 2008 10:22 PM | Link to this

Resales: I don’t recall the data, but I looked at that page and see a few apparent losers, strictly in the 55+ category (such as King’s Point).

I was on my soap box about this maybe a year ago. Buying in a 55+ community is a waste of money, in terms of investment. As far as I am concerned, you should expect prices in Alzheimer’s Land to move just one way — and that’s down.

That is ALL the time, however, and does not have that much to do with the current market.

I recall commenting a year or so ago about the $13,000 units in Century Village North — I said the furniture was sometimes worth more than the condo….

That is not to say you should NEVER buy into such a situation. If you are over 55 or can find someone over 55 to cooperate, I think it’s reasonble to find a unit which has some kind of utilitarian value — a guest unit, record or furniture storage, and pay it off if you can spare the cash without missing it, or at worst put it on a credit card.

Put it to whatever use you can, and if the worst happens, if you run headlong into an economic storm which may be on the horizon, and someone is over 55 (you or spouse/partner), you can always clean it up and live in it, without any liens except condo fee and taxes for a couple or three hundred a month.

Maybe you even can rent it out (each association has its own rules), and clear a couple of hundred a month, but I don’t think it is worth the effort.

SO buy in situations like that for various reasons of convenience, but not for the purposes of resale.

By And Max Adds....

January 9, 2008 10:32 PM | Link to this

Also bear in mind, many of these units are sold AFTER the death of the owner.

Whoever inherits or otherwise has to dispose of these units simply dumps them as soon as possible for whatever is offered.

SO: there is no seller “losing” money, and you have to take these “sale” amounts with a grain of salt.

Now. back to Ghost Hunters.

Personally, I have compelling personal reasons to watch TAPS.

Chris is hot.

By resales

January 10, 2008 9:04 AM | Link to this

maxi- not helping with refusing to see the huge number of 2005/2006 resales with lower prices.

In-denial sellers continue to sit, month after expensive month without selling.

Many could have sold already if price reflected changed market conditions.

Idiocy like “prices rising as we speak” gave false hope to many.

Only valid suggestion was to keep properties off market, if able to carry for long term.

If you must sell, or just want to sell, look at the number of properties on mkt for long periods.

Do not be misled by some very high asking prices of some sellers just trolling. They do not care if no buyer, but if idiot did come along would sell.

Fortunately for idiots, they can no longer get the idiot financing easily any longer.

So, with shrinking pool of qualified buyers, huge inventory of listings, price properly or do not waste everyones time and resources.

By Curious

January 10, 2008 12:50 PM | Link to this

Piling it on:

http://efinancedirectory.com/articles/StudyShowsHugeGapBetweenRentsandHousePrices.html

Wondering how long it is going to take before the tens of thousands of hold-out sellers finally forget the past few years and realize that taking any sort of current comparable price is a good option since they will be able to buy it back for a lot less in a couple years if they want?

By Max is "curious" about offer

January 10, 2008 12:57 PM | Link to this

You are sure of that, Curious?

You will guarantee ALL these people in writing to buy back their houses, including 2 way closing costs, in a couple of years, for the same price?

Would you be so quick to give such advice using your real name, knowing you could be sued for the disasterous results of such unsolicited advice?

You are not just an idiot, Curious — you are a DANGEROUS idiot.

BTW: Zillow just raised it’s estimate on one of my houses 150K, or over 40%, based on recent comps in the neighborhood. Anything can happen, you schmuck.

By Max re-assails resales

January 10, 2008 1:10 PM | Link to this

GOOBER - for the 50th time, maybe you can get it through that scrotum that sits where your head should be:

THE ONLY IDIOT IS YOU!

Something like 99% of the homes in PBC ARE NOT FOR SALE.

Of the ones that are, over 90% of THEM have OVWHELMING equity from a triple-digit run-up that makes anything but a profit impossible.

SO GEE, I am sorry for the half per cent, or whatever, of people who may have to take slightly less than record prices for their homes, but in the grand scheme of things, I really have to say SO WHAT?

Now get ready, the next freak show is coming up, and YOU’RE ON.

By Max Corrects

January 10, 2008 1:14 PM | Link to this

Over 90% that is not for sale.

And of the remainder, most with big equity.

I don’t want to get as wreckless as GOOBER.

By Max Puts it in Perspective

January 10, 2008 1:41 PM | Link to this

According to official statistics, at the end of 2006 there were 631,000 residences in Palm Beach County.

By the wildest and most dire of the doomers’ estimates, 32,000 of them are for sale. That’s under 5.1 per cent, including some that have been foreclosed.

Of that 5.1 per cent, at least 80 per cent were NOT purchased in 2005 or 2006.

This leaves approximately 1% of the population which is POTENTIALLY affected by a real estate dip. “Affected” will in most cases mean taking something less than a theoretical high for their property — not a loss.

So this “crisis” is a problem of infinitessimally small proportions, which the newspapers blow out of proportion, and vulnerable imbeciles like GOOBER have inculcated upon their miniscule brains.

So next time an imbecile like GOOBER harangues you about the real estate market, just remember:

631,000 units

around 32,000 for sale

big equity in about 26,000 of them

a potential “crisis” involving about 6,000 owners.

LOL!!!

Sorry for their pain, but really, whose kid got bullied in school this week is a much bigger social problem.

By Stupid Maxipad

January 10, 2008 1:55 PM | Link to this

Stupid, stupid Maxipad: That tiny 1% sets the comps for the other 99%, driving down the value of homes in general.

Seriously, could you be this stupid? Sounds like you should go back to Sweden and get a refund for your socialist education.

By the way, I know who you are, and you don’t have 2 nickles to rub together.

I always thought you sounded like a woman….

By And Max Adds....

January 10, 2008 2:28 PM | Link to this

HA HA HA HA HA

Horsehit HA HArry continues to make an a*s of himself.

So now I am a Swedish woman. I didn’t want to admit it, Horsehit, but I am Pia Lindstrom, and here’s the news:

At the end of 2006 there were 1,274,000 residents of Palm Beach County, with an average household of 2.34 persons of any age.

Now let’s say ALL owners of the 32,000 residences for sale were in deep, deep trouble, every single (or married) one of them. This would mean potentially 74,880 men, women and children.

But compared to the actual population of PBC, this is far less than 6% of the population. In other words, no matter how you slice it, this “crisis” amounts to NOTHING.

If you are really dumb, listen to the hysteria of GOOBER and HORSESHIT HARRY. If you have a modicum of intelligence, just look at the numbers.

NOW, for the armchair racists who insist Palm Beach County is the third world, here is the real scenario.

PBC is white and non-hispanic by a sizeable majority.

As of 2006, PBC was 64.5% white NON-hispanic.

Latinos and Black people split most of the rest, with under 17% each.

QUICK!!! Close down Borders! Burn the mall!!! They’re coming to carry away the white women!!!!

As my Swedish twin sister Ann Margaret would say: WE GO TO HOTEL NOW? JA?

By Hispanic Male

January 10, 2008 4:07 PM | Link to this

Hey Max - As an hispanic male. I always check caucasian/white on any form that I have to fill in ‘race’ for.

Just thought you might want to know a lot of us ‘hispanics’ do this and the rest of us don’t fill out the forms.

By Maxipad the nazi?

January 10, 2008 4:28 PM | Link to this

Maxipad, your logic is akin to someone saying during WWII what’s the big deal, the jews don’t make up that much of the population of europe.

Seriously, you have to be a woman. Only a chick could be so silly and illogical as you.

Are you ever not having that time of month?

By RCA

January 10, 2008 5:48 PM | Link to this

We’re coming back now from the delusional, hallucinogenic stage of the boom.

By to maxi

January 10, 2008 6:18 PM | Link to this

Faced with foreclosure on her Russellville, Indiana home, Christina Snyder allegedly concocted the kind of plan that now has insurance executives on edge.

According to the county prosecutor, the 31-year-old Snyder allegedly offered to pay a neighbor $5,000 to help her burn down her house and make it look like a botched rape attempt - all in order to claim $80,000 in insurance money. Snyder wanted the neighbor to bind her hands in duct tape, write “whore” on her shirt, and then help her escape once the blaze was set, the prosecutor says. The neighbor demurred, instead reporting Snyder to police.

By Max says Hola to Hispanic Male

January 10, 2008 6:35 PM | Link to this

No es asunto mio lo que escribe en sus papeles. Iqualmente, no crei las cifras del censo. Si a Ud. no les gustan, digalo al gobierno.

By max otra vez

January 10, 2008 6:43 PM | Link to this

“LE gustan,” NO quiero una tormenta por tanto. Cono!

By Max thinks Horshshit Harry Has Lost It

January 10, 2008 6:50 PM | Link to this

Horsehist HA HA rry- you have really gone off the deep end now!

Jews and Nazis? You have clearly lost the last vetstiges of your mind.

As for me being a woman, consider this, Professor Numbnuts. If I’m NOT a woman, you are pretty stupid, and have proven it more clearly then ever, and I’m sitting here laughing my a*s off at you.

Think about it, with whatever paltry apparatus you have for such an activity.

By Max to "To Max"

January 10, 2008 6:57 PM | Link to this

And your point is?

Is this supposed to be reflective of your neighbors in Palm Beach County somehow?

Maybe someone in Indiana is pasting your comment now, to prove what idiots and lunatics there are in Florida. Does that put the rest of us in your league?