By Get in the Game

November 15, 2007 6:01 PM | Link to this

Somehow the convention has invigorated you Jeff.

Nice work, great easy paced article explaining everything in detail from the macro to the micro.

Welcome to the game, Jeff.

By Michael Fink

November 15, 2007 7:05 PM | Link to this

Wells Fargo says housing only been as bad one other time, during the Great Depression.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSWEN261320071115

Also, the executive goes on record as saying the pain is “far from over”.

And remember people, this is the national housing market these guys are talking about. FL is just considered a casualty of war at this point; the national media doesn’t even talk about it much anymore.

Now, on to the broader economic impliciations of housing prices falling dramatically across the county..

By Get in what game?

November 15, 2007 7:52 PM | Link to this

What game are you talking about? Too vague. Explain your moniker.

By Ghost RIder

November 15, 2007 9:33 PM | Link to this

“Fl is just considered a casualty of war at this point”. Fink, You’re such an idiot.

By crazydem

November 16, 2007 10:49 AM | Link to this

Easy-Would you please put the Pasta Squatter back in his place. He’s been taking excessive liberties in your absence…

By easyasabc

November 16, 2007 10:57 AM | Link to this

Biggest source of gloom is housing?…..The real issue is the economy, not housing……if people lost their jobs, and have large credit card bills, buying a house is the last thing that should be on these peoples minds…..when you are working, people should pay off their credit card bills……and as your debt is removed, your credit score will rise…..and when that happens, lenders will see you as a safe mortgage holder ready to buy…….but when the economy is going down, so will peoples income…….If “The Economist” cannot see that this country is in a recession now, then that paper is only good for the bottom of a bird cage……this country is piling up on its bills, and all of us will have to pay a big slice of it down the road…..wait until the Bush Tax Cuts expires, and no matter what political party is in office, the next president will have to raise the taxes big time………I was told that Marilyn Geewax ended up not with Wayne Newton, but with David Copperfield in Vegas……very quiet here….no one is around?????…..did people move away when I was gone?????…..here is some interesting tid bits…..only food that does not spoiled is honey…….largest AIDS group for people over 60 yers old in the U.S. is in Palm Beach County!…..about 97% of all information on the internet deals with PORN…..ok, I just figured out what Madmax is doing…..he is watching Carolina Gal in her trailer web cam…………I have to say this, there are some nice double-wide trailers sitting in nice locations along the PCH and in Palm Springs, Ca…….there is hope for some of the trailer people in life to own a trailer valued over $500,000…..hey Rich R., are there any of those nudist trailer camps up in North Carolina??????….All those Christians prasing the Lord in church in the morning and later on, running around like Adam & Eve in the afternoon in some hidden forest with a lake…..I bet you did not know that nudist camps is one of the fastest rising commercial real estate properties investments in this country……..can anyone imagine a “Naked Mayberryland” ???????……what about a bunch of naked Aunt Bea types walking around???….Yikes!!!!…. I bet RCA will open “Camp Sunshine” for all his old friends in Boca…..watching old naked people wrestling in a big pudding arena would get RCA very excited!

I see Fink did not mention about that article on majority of the people still say that real estate is a good investment right now……..and as to the stock market, this is not the time to be trading stocks…..you have to be in the long run to make money…..no one is going to get rich on stock trading in three days……..very boring now…..my Worth Ave. real estate friend says sales are very slow for everyone….business will pick up in January …..Brokers and Realtors will cut back on advertising starting next year…bad news for the newspapers and R.E. magazines ad departments………we will see what 2008 brings to everyone……this Christmas season will be “make it or break it” for many ma & pa shops everywhere……gas will be 15 cents more this time next friday……Carnivale Cruise Line is adding $5 per day service fee for fuel…..food at the stores are going up due to the fuel costs….ATM fees going up………see, prices are rising here as we speak…..lets see if the “have nots” can make Corporate America reduce their prices?????

easyasabc

By cw1900

November 16, 2007 12:41 PM | Link to this

“Get”, I completely agree with your views on the savings rate in the US and the amount of credit the average household is taking on. Here are some scary stats that many of us here will not be surprised at.

I heard these stats recently, they didn’t surprise me. I found them from a recent analyst report from a guy at Putnam Investments, How to avoid Waltzing broke in retirement

Interesting, but none of it is a surprise to a few of us here who cringe at what some of you are doing to your financial future for some meaningless wants today. Simply put, most of us do not save enough for the future, and of that paltry savings, it is not invested properly. The savings rate in the US is now at the lowest point since 1934.

“In survey results released earlier this year, fully 51% of workers age 55 and over reported having less than $100,000 in savings and investments outside of their primary residence and defined benefit pension plans. More than one quarter of those surveyed had less than $10,000 saved. These numbers tally quite well with the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances, which showed that in 2004, 50% of households headed by someone age 55 to 65 had total .nancial assets of less than $78,000 outside of defined benefit pension plans.”

That is pathetic.

However, there are some numbers in that article to back up what I said recently about the baby boomers and how some of you are not taken seriously the opportunity that is ahead to capitalize on this generation. Even though most Americans can’t save two nickels, there are still millions and millions who do, and many of them will be here, I don’t care what some of you doomers think or say. You know it and I know do it.

“In 15 years, the number of 65-year-olds should swell to 4 million, bringing the total number of Americans age 65 and older to 58 million, up from some 38 million today. The inexorable march of the babyboom generation into their retirement years is upon us.”

How many of them will be in Florida? NC? AZ? HI?

Next…

In response to Jeff’s article on homeownership and the mortgage interest deduction not truly a benefit for many of us who have been conditioned to think it is, I am a firm believer, that for the average household, if it is possible, paying off the mortgage as soon as possible is far better than not paying it off and investing the difference. Here me out before you get out your calculators and tell me I’m a fool. Your math will tell me I’m wrong, and I agree it will, but you are forgetting other valuable pieces to this financial puzzle that make me right in the end.

We’ll make the numbers easy to understand for those of you Average Guys in Lake Worth and Boynton Beach.

Let’s say this typical American family is in the 25% tax bracket. That family has a mortgage balance of $175,000 and the principle and interest payment is, let’s say $1200. Since we all know Joe Lunchbucket doesn’t save any money, he has no money to pay off his motrgage with, so we’ll give Joe an uncle who died and left him $175,000. Your calculators will tell you to invest that money, hoping to get 10% and keep making his mortgage payment on that money he borrowed at 6%….. and that fantastic mortgage interest deduction.

Every dollar you pay off on your loan balance is equivalent to a guranteed 6% return. You are hoping to get 10%, but we all know, that is not guranteed. Next, you are investing dollars that have potential taxable gains, taking that 10% down to more like 7 or 8%. When accounting for risk, which the calculators do not take into account, and we give risk a value of 2%, your big fortunes are not there……The average Joe can do better with that guranteed 6% than the hoped for 10% that you and I all know doesn’t come easy to the average joe. Many of us can successfully invest, but most do not.

The mortgage interest deduction is the biggest kicker to all of this. That typical family we said was in the 25% tax bracket. At $1200 month, he is paying $14,400 in interest.

Which brings us to the myth, which is don’t pay off your home, you’ll lose your tax deduction. While it’s true, you will lose your deduction. I don’t think it compares to the money you save by not paying the bank all that interest. What your calculator is saying is that it is a good idea to send the bank $14,400 in interest so that you can keep from sending the government 3 or 4 grand, based on your tax bracket.

I believe it would be more prudent to opt instead for the guaranteed return and risk reduction that come with paying off a mortgage early for the majority of everyday average Americans. Many of us have the discipline to invest better and hold onto the mortgage, therefore potentially making more money in the long run. I’m not disputing that, but I’m telling you I believe the majority do not have that same discipline, therefore, it would be in their best interest to pay it off.

While it makes sense logically and by the numbers to NOT pay off your house and instead invest the money, it’s not a practical solution for the Average Guys. Yeah, yeah, people can argue that they’ll take the money and invest it, but you and I both know Average Guy will not consistently follow through with the plan. They may do it for a year or two, but eventually things come up, they make some changes and they SPEND the money they had meant to invest. In that scenario, they have their full mortgage and no investments, and most of that $175,000 inheritance is pi$$ed away.

If Joe indeed pays off the mortgage, he can replace that $175,000 by now investing that same $1200 payment he used to pay, and if invested properly, that $175,000 will be replaced in just a few short years. If Joe/Average Guy doesn’t follow through with that plan either, at least he has a paid off house.

There….cw1900 trying to save Average Guy from himself.

Have a nice weekend.

cw

By FL Renaissance

November 16, 2007 4:31 PM | Link to this

OK folks we all know that BAD NEWS always sells more newspapers than GOOD NEWS. Misery loves company and what would most of you rather read about story A or B? A is a story about how many homes are going into foreclosure and that their owers are in debt up to their eyeballs and are eating cans of cat food out on their mortgaged granite countertops -OR- Story B which is about me enjoying the fruits of my RE labor now idly laying on the beach sands and enjoying the cooling tradewinds of the Islands, and then off to NYC for the Christmas season (when the B’WAY strike is hopefully over) before returning to FL for the Winter. What do you think huh? And further read the following blurb I just received: Westchester NY housing market holds up. Median home prices have increased 2.9 percent to $674,000 this year in Westchester. In Rockland, prices are up .15 percent to $496,250, while in Putnam prices fell .15 percent to $404,380. Sales of single-family houses increased 5.5 percent in the third quarter in Westchester and 1.5 percent in Rockland. House sales were flat in Putnam. “We are not seeing evidence that the subprime problem or the credit crunch are having a meaningful effect on this market, in terms of sales or prices of homes,” said P. Gilbert Mercurio, Westchester County Board of Realtors. Wise up people, buy when you can and as soon as you are comfortably able to. Unfortunately for many of you with the “herd mentality” these will either be never or when prices rise again!

By FL Renaissance

November 16, 2007 7:45 PM | Link to this

Once again good post cw! Here’s one for the mentality of Average Joe our smart renter. He got a promotional offer from an online e-Bank. It went like this: Just open up our super high yield E-CHECKING/SAVINGS account with $2,500 or more and we will pay you 4.02% APR AND, which is triple what traditional banks pay AND they go on to say, PLUS they will also your credit your new account with $100 in free money provided you keep the opening balance amount on hand for at least 6 months. So what does Average Joe, the renter genius do; he takes a credit card cash advance @21%+ to fund his “savings account”. No fool he, Right???Aloha

By Sold

November 16, 2007 8:43 PM | Link to this

As Fl Ren suggests, there are some bargains appearing. I also am very comfortable due to RE and other investments. I would caution in buying in SoFl, however, despite the apparent bargains.

The only RE I have sold was property in SoFl.

Still own original home in NYC bought 37 years ago and have added in other locations.

SoFl at this time is just not as attractive as other locations because of RE tax, Insurance, glut of properties, and other issues.

Would only buy in SoFl if for primary residence, and greatly discounted from current prices.

Do not hesitate to offer very low if you must buy soon. Better yet, wait at least 6 months if possible.

By Undervalued is getting close, bottom is nearing

November 16, 2007 10:03 PM | Link to this

Most Undervalued Real Estate Markets

By Pathetic Yes

November 16, 2007 10:26 PM | Link to this

“More than one quarter of those surveyed had less than $10,000 saved.”

If that is true for that age group, God help us. The Sandwich Generation had better get some sleep real soon. They’ll be working extra hard and long to support their kids and their parents at the same time.

What a mess.

By Steve

November 16, 2007 10:45 PM | Link to this

I agree with CW, if the bank is willing to loan money for 6%, that should tell you something. Ten percent ain’t guaranteed.

By Steve

November 16, 2007 10:48 PM | Link to this

Fl Ren, right now the heard is running for the exits.

By Steve

November 16, 2007 10:53 PM | Link to this

lol, herd

By ChicagobyMay

November 16, 2007 11:04 PM | Link to this

MPD (multiple personality disorder) Lets see, we have cw posting a long winded business plan that looks remarkably like something max would write. Then, FLren pats him on the back.

I love when pseudonymns compliment each other, Its like one guy doing his own multi-character puppet show! Today, Max has his cw puppet on one hand, FLRen puppet on the other.

EASY- who is this mythical ‘pasta squatter’ to whom you constantly refer? I lived next to City Place for 2 years, but in that entire time, I never once dined at one of those overpriced wannabe Worth Ave joints. Nor did I ever buy a single drink at Blue Martini, or any other trendy spot.

The ONLY money I spent there was at the now gone sports bar (Original Steak House) during NFL games. It was the closest place to watch the classic NFL teams play (CHicago, Detroit, Green Bay) instead of the local expansion teams. Even then, I never once spent more than $20. a visit.

However, I left WPB for Delray in April, so if Im your ‘pasta squatter’, you’ll have to come up with something new.

I now live walking distance to Atlantic ave, and the beach. That should help you with a new nickname. OH, I ride my bike alot, I only work part time, and I RENT of course!

As we speak, I am saving money living so cheaply by renting in your paradise!

By Michael Fink

November 17, 2007 12:01 PM | Link to this

http://www.sptimes.com/2007/11/17/Business/Glitterunderthe_gav.shtml

40 to 50 cents on the dollar is the new reality?

Check out the home listed for 2.4M that could not get a bid at 800K. Another listed at 1.25M that could not get anyone to open the bidding at 400K..

Sure, and RE only goes up. We are making history here folks, what we are seeing has never hapened before; and will never happen again. The last time housing was in trouble like this was the Great Depression.

I thought we would never see FL homes sell for 50% of previous value!?!

These folks can even get an opening bid at 30%!

By LMAO at Michael Fink

November 17, 2007 12:31 PM | Link to this

“what we are seeing has never hapened before; and will never happen again.”

What an absolute fool. Keep believing and dreaming. Never is forever, and that’s a very long time. You have no business sense at all.

LMAO.

By You've been trolled

November 17, 2007 4:18 PM | Link to this

The real dope has his name as Mike Fink.

MICHAEL Fink is a troll. Can’t you figure that out. Geez, some of you are blog deficient if you can’t see that. The real Mike Fink is a dope, but he’s not that much of a dope.

By Mary

November 18, 2007 7:57 AM | Link to this

I will ignore the statistics, biased opinions and speak from experience as someone who is trying to sell in this market. In South Florida there are no buyers except for a few people who are looking for sellers who are so desperate they will sell at any price. That’s it! My house has been on the market since May. I’ve dropped the price 3 times, only 2 people have seen it, and no legitimate offers. The problem is there are 15 other houses in my neighborhood also for sale so we are competing with who can offer the lowest price. Forget about what is going on in Westchester, NY or anywhere else for that matter. Anyone could put a spin on statistics. The reality is the market in South Florida is not bad, it is a disaster.

By Get in the Game

November 18, 2007 8:31 AM | Link to this

For Fink, Mary, and others…

When people throw all these stats around for listing and reduced prices, you just waste time.

When I read $2.4 M for a house in Tampa that is now asking $800k, who cares?

When I also read I reduced my house three times in the past year, again who cares?

Tell me what houses are CLOSING for in the area IN 2004. 2004 is a decent inception point. Not people’s perceptions of reality for 2005 and beyond.

That house in the Tampa area might honestly be worth only $400k, but they are tricking people into thinking the deal is ‘a steal’ or ‘below appraised value’ because they threw an arbitrary price on the house and have since reduced that price.

You should only use and/or care about CLOSED transactions (hopefully, between a Buyer and a Seller that is going to live in the property, not a developer LLC or ‘shell’ company that creates ‘ghost’ sales).

The listing price is a mythical number, a guesstimate, a SWAG, a perceived value, a comparison (mainly) of other listed houses in an extremely inefficient market.

And if there are 15 houses in a small area and none have sold or auctioned houses (what a rip off for a Buyer) that no one is bidding on…then, the Seller’s perception needs to match current market dynamics (SALES).

By Get in the Game

November 18, 2007 8:46 AM | Link to this

To Fink

Also, this 40/50 cents on the dollar, a new reality?

Again, incorrect statement by that father/son group.

The spread between bid and ask is dependent on a true value for the ask.

Meaning, the Seller could increase the price of the house to $4.8 M and then state ‘give me .50 cents on the dollar.’ Buyer pays $2.4 M and Seller laughs away.

So, I think the spread actually be about a fixed or stated value. Again, this an extremely inefficient market and provides little in the way of valuations or multiples, so the best you can do is closed sales for a particular year.

Some people type 1999, I have even read 1997 pricing. A bit too much to the left. We all know 2007 and 2006 prices are a thing of the past. The run-up crested in late 2005. Since, we should be working downward from here then 2004 seems to be a decent inception point.

By ADVICE for MARY

November 18, 2007 5:33 PM | Link to this

Mary you are making a big mistake by continually dropping your asking price. You are only competing with yourself. You should not be selling in this market period until the herd returns…and they eventually will, but only after the available housing stock is in balance. The Westchester NY reference posted above IS relevant because those folks will have the cash and the insight to appreciate the much lower local pricing in FL when they are ready to come on down and buy. You just have to wait it out! Sorry but them’s the cold hard facts. I just hope you have been in the house for a while and are not one of those who are upside down with a creative financing ticking time bomb. p.s. no more price reductions, you would be better off providing your home with upgrades to better differentiate from the others. My advice, pull it off the market and wait it out, but don’t be tempted to rent it out to some of the fools on this blog utill after an exhustive credit/background check. Also, sounds like you have a lazy and creative re agent.

By ADVICE FOR MARY

November 18, 2007 5:39 PM | Link to this

er..make that UNCREATIVE

By Michael Fink

November 18, 2007 5:53 PM | Link to this

Mary,

If you can wait it out, and can rent the unit cash flow positive, do that. If you can’t wait it out (and, very likely, it will be years before we see prices moving upward again) then cut your price below everyone else’s and sell now. I don’t suggest upgrading the home to inflate the value, more and more people are catching on to the SOH system, and realizing that the purchase price HAS to be as low as possible to get the best tax breaks. Make sure it is move in condition, and then cut your price below all the comps that are for sale.

Waiting it out will be several years to a decade. We are not going to see a housing market like we had for the past few years for another generation (we need to forget the pain that is coming from this one). Values are only going lower for at least a few years, and perhaps for longer. The faster you can get out, the more you will make (and the less you have to spend to carry 2 homes; remember, all those taxes/HOA/insurance and electric bills are just money gone; as in, out the window and unrecoverable). Take in the fact that homes are depreciating in value; and you could very likely be losing 1-2% of the value of your home every single month your don’t sell it (on top of the carrying costs).

If you do rent it, of course, conduct good background/credit checks. SFH in this area rent for about $1/sq ft per month. Price accordingly; and try to get a long term tenent. Require first/last and security, that will weed out some/most of the undesireables.

By lastSalePrice

November 18, 2007 9:08 PM | Link to this

“Get” poster seems to miss the point that most prices posted here do compare last SELLING price and current selling or fail-to-sell-at price.

EG :

1940 SW 7th Pl Boca Raton

Last SALE Dec 2006 $1,300,000

Currently listed for

$995,000.

“ID#: D1225166 TOTALLY UPDATED EAST BOCA LAKEFRONT, TOP OF THE LINE CUSTOM FINISHES INCLUDING ARCHITECTUAL COLUMS, CROWN MOULDING AND COFFERED CEILINGS. STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES IN GOURMET KITCHEN. CUSTOM BUILT-INS IN BOTH LIVING AND FAMILY ROOM. STONE FIREPLACE, CLOSET ORGANIZERS AND MUCH MORE . MUST SEE!! GATED COMMUNITY. A+ SCHOOLS, WALK TO SUGAR SAND PARK.”

Take a look at this beautiful place , unable to sell, then tell me the mkt isn’t in trouble.

By Advice from FINK?

November 19, 2007 12:07 AM | Link to this

Mary. Just do the opposite of Fink and you’ll be just fine. If you listen to him you won’t have a pot to pee in!

By Make me laugh

November 19, 2007 8:16 AM | Link to this

Mary, just ask Fink how much experience does he have in RE.

By Get in the Game

November 19, 2007 9:21 AM | Link to this

Last Price Guy…

I stated using 2004 pricing as an inception point.

2007, 2006, and 2005 prices are a thing of the past.

So, for your example who cares that they paid $1.3 M in 2006, doesn’t matter…

Now if they paid $900k in 2004, then that should be the starting point or the retail price.

Agree with Fink, unless you NEED to sell, wait. Rent it out.

And unless you NEED to purchase, then wait. Rent out a place for 2008 and 2009 and re-price risk then.

By Get in the Game

November 19, 2007 9:41 AM | Link to this

Almost forgot, why are we even discussing purchasing a USED house? Savvy Buyers should only be looking at NEW houses since they afford the best deal around.

Like I keep typing, many small AND large house builders are going to go bankrupt or be acquired.

Since, they do not have any CASH, they are going to be forced to reduce inventory by any means possible.

Again, your basic business cycle.

A smart Buyer should only acquire a NEW house from a builder and forgo all the incentive crap, just reduce the list price limiting your tax signature.

By SalePrice

November 19, 2007 10:32 AM | Link to this

“get’-

The drop of over $300,000 from last sale to new sale may not matter to you. It is of interest to many others as indication of health of mkt.

Taken in conjunction with huge number of short sales and foreclosures, these specific listings should be warning and wake up call to buyers, sellers, brokers, and govts.

The fact that 1940 SW 7th Pl sold for $1,300,000 AND was given 2 mtgs, 1st for $1,000,000 and 2nd for $300,000 also should be of interest to many.

Previous to the Dec 2006 sale for $1,300,000 the place sold for $780,000 in Jul 2004.

Currently, no sale at $995,000 and not looking good.

Current appraisal for Tax Year 2007 = $962,449 tax bill is $17,111.

Tax man is going to be kept very busy with appeals going into next few years.

And, they are going to have to look for revenues to make up for lower than projected funds from RE transactions and lower appraisals from lower selling prices.

By cw1900

November 19, 2007 10:38 AM | Link to this

Good morning,

Earlier post does have a valid point. Mike, why did you change your moniker to Michael from Mike, or is this Michael someone else and not the real Fink? Nonetheless, I’m going with the assumption it is the same person. Having said that, Mike, with all due respect, you giving advice on being a landlord is like me giving advice on how to go out and get a home equity loan or my advice on the best way to go out and lease a brand new car. I do neither of such foolishness, therefore I have no experience in either, therefore it would be unwise to give advice on the subject, and even worse for someone to actually take said advice. Mike, you giving advice on real life scenarios on what an owner should do in terms of renting his house out is actually laughable to those of us who actually have done it successfully for many years. You know I like you, Mike, but that was ridiculous. You have no idea what you are talking about, my friend. Stick to what you know. That is, how to screw said landlord and your rights as a tenant.

Mary, “Get” is right on asking prices. They mean nothing. Max has explained that many times before as well. Max, tell Mary the truth about asking prices. The subject, however, about your house sitting there, you need to tell us your reason for selling now. If you really must sell, then I would do one thing. If I only “wanted” to sell, but didn’t have to, then I would go at it an entirely different way. “ADVICE for MARY”, I agree with you only if she just “wants” to sell. If she truely has no choice but to get out that property, then I would, of course, lower the price right now to under everybody else in the neighborhood. Right now. No hesitation. I would do that in good RE markets or slow RE markets. In this case, market has little to do with it. Family crisis has everything to do with it. She has a crisis and has no choice but to sell asap. Cut the price to sell it in the next 30 days and move on with your life. Her not doing that tells me she’s probably just another one of the bandwagoners wanting to head for the hills, and is trying to sell for the heII of it, and is only getting frustrated in the process. If she doesn’t really have to sell, but only “wants” to, then I agree with you, pull it off the market and enjoy your time in south Florida. Sure beats Dayton as we say.

“Get”, I disagree with you entirely on only looking at brand new homes as where the best deals are. Wrong.

The best deals are in existing homes right now and there is much less risk. Why does everyone on this blog always seem to forget about the risk factor? My friend, you are risking your hard earned money by plunking down a down payment with a builder that might not finish your house and go away, leaving you with nothing but a big mess on your hands. If you don’t think that is possible, go tell those people in PSL they can get their money back on that development gone bust.

With so many desperate sellers out there, you can literally steal existing houses today. I low ball everything anyway when I buy something, because I know someone will say yes. The builders, yes, you can find a good deal (not a great deal), however, you a taking an enormous amount of risk with that down payment you may never see again, and the risk of another pre-construction project that is unproven on an unproven tract of land in an unproven new neighborhood. No thanks “Get”, I’d rather find an incredible deal on an existing home these days. I’ve discussed this very subject here in the past on why I’d never buy a pre-construction and why I’ve only bought “used” homes. Much better deals if you are a good negotiator and can teach yourself how to walk away and let them come crawling back, or just move onto the next pigeon, err, seller. That’s truly being savvy and you can do that better with a naive, unskilled homeowner much easier than you can do it with a seasoned, grizzled sales broad in the development’s sales office. Sorry. Can’t agree with you on that one.

cw

By Get in the Game

November 19, 2007 11:27 AM | Link to this

Not un-completed houses, no. That would not make any sense, since the builder might not be around in 2008 or 2009.

I am typing of completed inventory that has to be moved. Plenty of houses that LEN, SPF, TOL, WCI (if you like apts),… that are done with keys ready to go. And many small guys that shall be glad if you take the house off their hands.

Those are the best deals.

New code, new safety features, and a Seller (big boys) that has severe external pressures (shareholders) to make some, ANY kind of money for the next 5-9 quarters.

By To Get In Game

November 19, 2007 11:48 AM | Link to this

Just like an automobile that becomes used once it leaves the dealership parking lot, same goes with a house. It becomes used once you take the keys.

I would tend to agree the deals are much better these days in the existing home market. When push comes to shove, you can outsmart a residential seller than you can a corporate builder any day of the week. Much more bang for your buck, and it’s splitting hairs on a house that is technically unlived in, or one that is one or two years old imo. The home that is two years old has a great chance of being for sell by someone who is in way over his head and has that desperate, dumb look and can be knocked to the ground so fast he won’t know what hit him.

By Get in the Game

November 19, 2007 12:13 PM | Link to this

Man, you guys are rough. I am not attempting to kill ‘Harry House Owner’ and his used house.

I just like approaching the house builders since it’s their job to forecast business cycles and ebb and flow accordingly.

Who knows? With this ‘knocked to the ground’ approach maybe you guys can have your .50 cents on the dollar?

By easyasabc

November 19, 2007 12:32 PM | Link to this

It is Monday….for those people up in the northeast who want to spend Thanksgiving in South Florida, here is some advice…..don’t jump on a JetBlue, but just drive here…..sure, gas is about $3.25 a gallon…..but what do want?….eatting turkey here, or sitting on jet for 12 hours on an airport runway being a turkey?????……bad news for all those Fink type renters…..banks are throwing your a*s out in the street when foreclosures notices arrive for your landlords…….I was reading all those comments yesterday from people on the Marilyn Geewax story……just several commnets…..no homeowner here has control of taxes or insurance costs…so all the “have nots” need to get that straight……also, prices will not return to 1999 or 1997 or 1941!……why do I say?…..because the people who did buy, have already invested money into their property, and selling below your investment will not happen…and the property is not going down 50 or 70% anywhere else in this country…….homeowners will just sit and wait it out until they get their price……the “have nots” need to either make more money to own here or move to some town in Mississippi named Cottonmouth, and find a cheap home there……also, the guy from “Juno Beach”….you said “Christ” is to blame for the taxes and insurance problems…..I think you meant (Charlie) Crist…..either way, both Christ and Crist will not be able to help you with your taxes or insurance………..I have two more wealthy areas for Florida Ren. where the name sells……Sedona, Arizona….never been there, but my friends showed photos of the place….very expensive and really nice…..and the other is Jackson Hole, Wyoming…..please do not confuse these place with Carolina Gal Hole in NC, where only truck drivers come to visit…..but the first two places are really for the upper rich to live and play at……..Please Mary, do not listen to Fink, the “pasta squatter” on real estate…..he is only good on restaurant reviews, ways of getting out on paying rent and how to move out during the middle of the night with a U-Haul truck……I am glad that Chicagoboy guy in Delray Beach has a nice time walking to his beach and bars from his rental unit…..sorry Chicagoboy, you are not expensive pasta restaurant person….more like a macaroni and cheese person…..go study your FAU exams and someday, you can sit behind a big desk that has a phone, and a computer on it and a degree hanging on the wall behind you…..in the meantime, you need to hustle more to the tables you wait on to earn more tips……and stay away from those crack areas that is just around the corner from you…….Yes Cw, many great deals on exisitng homes….but there are no steals…..unless you want to rip off a widow…..Cw, would you want someone to rip off your wife and kids after you are gone??????…..Karma does happen to people in life….treat others as the way you want them to treat you and your family………I did see one builder going below $25,000 on the cost of a new home…..which it would be no loss……these builders kept default deposits on these new homes sometimes three times over in the last two years….an average new homeowner deposit is somewhere between $40,000-$65,000…..the builders never lose out….I know people at two well known homebuilders where they kept over 600 deposits that average around $50,000 from future buyers who defaulted on the house purchase because they could not sell their home up north…….many homes up in the “Traditions” area where people had to walk away with large deposits…….Crime cities…Detriot, St. Louis, Oakland…..see the trend?????…….Is it me, or does Hillary Clinton and Ellen Degeneres can pass as sisters????….I see Chelsea Clinton was over in Iraq visiting the troops ….she asked one soldier “what did he fear the most?”…..the soldier replied….”I fear three things in life….I fear Osama….I fear Obama…..and your Mama!” ……stocks below 13,000…….crazydem, where are you ?????…..not many days left for hurricane season…..poor RCA will have to return all those boxes of pudding back to Publix…….not much drinking water left for the people of Georgia or the Carolinas…..no water, no future……yes, we have our water problems….the mayor of WPB can find $150 million for her new city hall palace….but cannot find $3 million to replace a 1926 water pipe…..if you think the taxes are high now, they will get even higher when we have to pay off all these debts….both here and in Washington D.C…….no escaping both death and taxes…..deal with it…….does anyone have a clue where or what they will be doing in ten years from now if you are expecting to buy a house????……if you do know, let me call you “Carnac the Magnificent”…..and tell me this important information….I need the numbers for this weekends lottery results…..I saw a nice peice of property near La Jolla, Ca.

easyasabc

By Pasta Squatter in Loxahatchee?

November 19, 2007 12:36 PM | Link to this

Could it be? Could it be Mike Fink is really a desperate homeowner living in Loxahatchee trying to sell a boat to make his house payment?

This is just too funny. How many other Mike Finks are there in Palm Beach County? Not many.

Does anyone else think this is the “Pasta Squatter”?

It might not be, but it is somewhat coincidental. If not, maybe somebody out there wants to buy this boat.

RFLMAO

By Rich R

November 19, 2007 3:21 PM | Link to this

hey Easy,

I just read your post above and to answer your question about the nudist trailer park, i have to tell you the only nudist trailer park i know of happens to be in PBC.

I think it’s called Sunsport Gardens and it’s in Loxahatchee. I used to own the property adjacent to it and boy, i do have to say that the people walking around there should cover up. Nasty, Nasty lookin people.

LMAO, just too funny.

By CW and Risk

November 19, 2007 4:16 PM | Link to this

Hey CW, what about the Risk of not having liquid assets?

You conveniently forget about that little tidbit.

By FL Renaissance

November 19, 2007 5:03 PM | Link to this

God bless cw1900 and easyasabc and me since we are all the same people?? Anyway, best laugh of the day is from easy”Chelsea Clinton was over in Iraq visiting the troops ….she asked one soldier “what did he fear the most?”…..the soldier replied….”I fear three things in life….I fear Osama….I fear Obama…..and your Mama!” Best line I never wrote! Happy Thanksgiving!

By Brian

November 20, 2007 1:25 AM | Link to this

Anyone facing foreclosure should be aware that there is one very important alternative to avoid the foreclosure and that is the Short Sale. A Short Sale is a proven way for a homeowner who owes more than the house is worth to avoid a foreclosure and the subsequent credit hit.

I would advise anyone facing foreclosure to discuss their situation with an experienced Realtor. Short Sales are not a part of real estate basic training but there are a number of educational seminars a Realtor can take to get up to speed. Lenders will pay a reasonable selling commission so Realtors have an incentive to get involved in Short Sale situations.

The basic requirements for a Short Sale are a Listing Agreement with a Realtor and a Sales Contract from a Buyer which are submitted to the Lender along with a Hardship Letter from the Seller explaining why they cannot continue to pay the mortgage and supporting documents such as tax returns, bank statements, information and photos of the home and the Comps, or comparative home prices supporting the offer. The way mortgages are sold, the mortgage holder can be anywhere in the USA or even overseas and certainly not aware of local real estate conditions.

If the package is complete, the Lender will order a BPO, or Broker’s Price Opinion, from an independent Realtor. Ths BPO is the key to the whole process. If it is too high, the Lender will not accept a low offer. Your Realtor can meet with the Agent doing the BPO and offer information supporting the offer, such as the average time on market of comparable homes, recent selling prices and point out any defects in the home. Most Lenders will accept an offer lower than the BPO, but usually not much more than 10% lower, though that will vary depending on the company.

The sales contract should specifically state that the offer is contingent on the Lender accepting the purchase price in full and forgiving the Seller the deficiency on the mortgage. There can be tax consequences but if the Seller is truly in a difficult financial situation they can be avoided - an accountant should certainly be involved in that question. This does all take time and Lenders are swamped, expect at least 2-3 months before a sale can be finalized, even if the Lender accepts the first offer. If they do not, the price can be negotiated.

I am a Realtor, a Broker Associate in South Florida and am involved in Short Sales. It is a detailed but fairly straightforward process that can work to benefit Buyer, Seller and even the Lender. The Buyer gets a good price on a home, the Seller gets to avoid the disruption and credit hit of a foreclosure and the Lender avoids the delay and expense of foreclosing on a property they don’t want to own and that would negatively impact their ability to make more loans. All this information is available on the web site www.foreclosuresfloridaforeclosures.com

By TAKE A HIKE BRIAN

November 20, 2007 2:14 AM | Link to this

Get Lost. This a real estate blog not a free adverising site. The only thing short is your stature around here and your pecker.

By Get in the Game

November 20, 2007 6:50 AM | Link to this

To Brian

Hey Toolshed…

Should not be pitching your ‘advice’ for your personal gain.

If these house ‘owners’ have EQUITY in their house, they should commence a workout plan with the lending institution vice short selling.

And again, unless there is a significant NEED to sell, just wait 2 or 3 years and revisit the market then.

Yeah I know your ‘firm’ would not make any money in the interim…

By cw1900

November 20, 2007 9:27 AM | Link to this

Well, I assumed that most of the people on this blog had decent, common sense….I was wrong.

To answer the question from “CW and Risk”, I would only say that I assumed you know that you shouldn’t purchase any non-liquid asset such as real estate UNLESS you have sufficient liquid assets even after you have put down a substantial down payment, that you can actually afford such a purchase, and have thought out a well structured worse case scenario in the event your plans for this non-liquid asset don’t pan out the way you thought.

Didn’t most of us learn that in Business Common Sense 101?

Ahh, cw1900, you’re slipping. The answer is no. I forgot. That’s why we have whiners and desperate sellers today who want to be given a mulligan for the financial stupidity of the last couple of years. They want us to feel sorry for them, too. Yes, I forgot about that bandwagon crowd of zero down, condo next to the tracks, wife buying the subzero stainless freezer and the mall -bought window treatments for what she naively thought would help the flip sell faster, and then take the expected proceeds to the promised land of western NC?! Oops, I forgot. That scenario didn’t seem to work, and “CW and Risk”, you were correct that those people put themselves in a massive risk position because, as you correctly reminded me, they had no liquid assets to start with, but they still wanted to be Mr and Mrs Donald Trump.

I see now where you may have been mistaken. Sorry. I will try to be more clear next time…..wait, that will make my posts even longer, and the guy in the 300 dollar shorts doesn’t like that.

Hey Brian. Nice canned, scripted post that your upline MLM clown gave you to memorize. Try Amway instead. You blew it buddy. The spammers are going to be all over you like a bandwagoner at the next mountain property seminar coming soon to a local hotel conference room near you. Next time, actually pay for some advertising instead of looking like the desperate newbie that you appear to be. Look, we all get you are just trying to make a living, but that was really lame.

Did your wife pick out the granite coutertops on your last failed venture, or was it your idea?

Can the stupidity be any worse these days on this blog?

cw

By cw1900

November 20, 2007 9:45 AM | Link to this

Ooops, I almost forgot.

Three new turnpike interchanges studied

I wonder if they talked to the doomers about this. Haven’t the doomers convinced everybody that Florida is going to fall into the ocean, and everybody is moving out of here. If so, why would we need 3 new interchanges????

Could it possibly be that the doomers have no idea what they’re talking about, and the DOT is planning ahead for the expected population increases that are inevitably coming?

Just a thought, but what do I know? I just try to use a little common sense every now and then.

cw

By To CW the mental munchkin

November 20, 2007 2:06 PM | Link to this

CW, you have a great way to make all these assumptions in the hopes that you look smart.

In your first post about risk, you said:

“Let’s say this typical American family is in the 25% tax bracket. That family has a mortgage balance of $175,000 and the principle and interest payment is, let’s say $1200. Since we all know Joe Lunchbucket doesn’t save any money, he has no money to pay off his motrgage with, so we’ll give Joe an uncle who died and left him $175,000. Your calculators will tell you to invest that money, hoping to get 10% and keep making his mortgage payment on that money he borrowed at 6%….. and that fantastic mortgage interest deduction.”

So, Joe doesn’t have any money. But you said he should take all of this windfall and use it to pay off his mortgage.

When someone points out how stupid and risky that could be, you change the deal. Now you say:

“To answer the question from “CW and Risk”, I would only say that I assumed you know that you shouldn’t purchase any non-liquid asset such as real estate UNLESS you have sufficient liquid assets even after you have put down a substantial down payment, that you can actually afford such a purchase, and have thought out a well structured worse case scenario in the event your plans for this non-liquid asset don’t pan out the way you thought.”

This is nothing but one mroe example of how dishonest and inconsistent you are. You are telling people to have “vision” and invest in real estate, but then you don’t buy any real estate here. That’s just typical of you.

By the way, how is WM doing?

By Jealous of the Haves

November 20, 2007 6:45 PM | Link to this

The Have-nots and the Haves-and-then-spends-and-then-have-nots-again-until-payday-to-be-haves-again-until-next-mall-shopping-day sure get their feathers in a duster when Easy, FL Renaissance, and CW speak some truth. I can take doses of Maxi at times too, but you 3 keep those funny spenders in a tizzy. Makes my day, lol.

By And Speaking of Maxi....

November 20, 2007 8:18 PM | Link to this

Greetings from your peripatetic moose pal. While wandering around, I began to wonder what some others were doing in the past year while we were wasting our time on this blog, debating whether the world were coming to an end.

Here’s what some folks gained YOY in the past 12 months by buying condos in other Florida cities:

Fort Walton Beach… UP 115% (You read that right. If you put down 10% you multiplied your money by ten-fold, and then some.)

Pensacola…UP 29%

Daytona Beach…UP 59% (This one really galls me, because Daytona is such a fun place.)

SO there you go, stupid is as stupid does…or as most of us didn’t do in this case. While some of us “cheerleaders” felt smart for not agreeing with the Doomers, we didn’t realize how stupid we were by just being here arguing with them.

Meantime, for the armchair economists out there, I offer this: Our Dollar took it’s slide toward record lows NOT when interest rates were low, but in the process of 17 straight HIKES in interest rates. I’d like a strong greenback too, but that strategy just didn’t work.

In the pretentious and ludicrous style of “Curious,”:

Cheers!