By Rich R

September 11, 2007 1:04 PM | Link to this

Face it folks,

The RE market in SoFla is toast.

As the 2005 level pricing was caused almost exclusively by flippers/specultors who have long left the market, there is no stimulus to maintain these 2005 levels. None at all.

Income/cost rations are out of whack, and the mortgage meltdown is just adding fuel to this spirling downward pressure on RE pricing.

I’ve been saying this since the first day I posted on this blog, and my position has not changed at all.

Prices will continue to fall until such time that there is balance in the market place. We are seeing this BEGIN to occur now.

Values are dropping like a rock, and still no sales to speak of.

You can talk about median price until the cows come home, but it’s meaningless with no sales volume to support it.

Notice in todays paper, school enrollment is down again for the second year in a row in PBC. Wake county, NC is seeing huge increases in enrollment at the same time.

With close to 30,000 homes for sale and less then 700 sold last month should tell you something.

Boomers/snowbirds have realized the unfairness in the tax structure and all the hoopla over reform turned out to be a joke and no relief to the snowbirds, landlords etc. at all. It’s the funny talk on Long Island these days.

Home insurance is just broken, and not even funny anymore.

Face it, you can only kick a dog so much before he bites, and it seems SoFla is being bit hard.

I will say this one more time.

Anything is worth only what you can sell it for today; not a dime more.

18 months ago, I suggested that values would fall 30-50% from peak prices and if you look at the market place, we are currently seeing listings 20-30% off the peak, and this is only the tip of the iceberg.

This is 2007 and only the first wave of toxic mortgages have adjusted, with many, many more to come leading to record breaking foreclosures. More and more people find themselves up-side-down and owe much more then the home is worth.

If you have a foreclosure anywhere in your neiborhood, you just lost about 2-3% of value because your neigbours can’t pay their bills.

It’s time people….

Time to pay-off, eliminate debt (of all kinds), Keep the car after payoff, stay out of the malls, and for corn sake, stay out of Starbucks. Cash is King!

Time to get your fiscal house in order; the vultures are circling.

Just last night, I received a call from a high school friend from Boca who’s not forming a vulture fund and invited me to join.

Millions will be made by many as a result of this madness. Unfortunately many will be hurt and hurt badly as a result.

Sad, very sad, but very true.

Fasten your seatbelts SoFla, it’s going to be a rocky road for some time to come.

Best of luck to all.

By It's amazing

September 11, 2007 1:16 PM | Link to this

Rich suddenly shows up after posting under a different heading. Could it be coincidence? Yeah right. Rich, you’re such a LOSER.

By Rich R

September 11, 2007 1:22 PM | Link to this

Let me guess.

You are over your head in debt, HELOC is maxed out from buying furniture, vacations and Starbucks, you choose to bash me simply because you disagree with me and the basic facts.

You are Amazing, but not in a good way.

I really don’t care what you think.

LET ME SAY THIS AGAIN AND PERHAPS IT WILL SINK IN THIS TIME.

I NEVER USE ANY ID OTHER THEN MY OWN (Rich R).

Why would you care anyway? Really? Why would you care?

Simple question, complex answer I’m sure.

By Who Cares

September 11, 2007 1:44 PM | Link to this

Get a life. I too don’t care. Rich, nobody really cares about what you have to say. Life is so grand in N.C. but you can’t stay. You’re a complete loser. It seems that there’s nothing to do in N.C. BTW, how did your visqueen covering your pool hold up with the tropical wave? You must be king in the trailor park.

By Rich R

September 11, 2007 2:01 PM | Link to this

LOL.

We didn’t even get a cloud from Gabrielle. Not a drop of rain in Raleigh.

Thanks for asking.

Pools great, and the enclosure is super cool. Just push a button and it closes. Worth every dime.

By Hey Rich

September 11, 2007 2:34 PM | Link to this

How are the fat chicks at the local diner? Do they at least have teeth?

By Rich R

September 11, 2007 2:58 PM | Link to this

When you learn to respect others and their opinions, I’ll reply to that.

In the meantime, you need to go and slap your parents for failing you in every aspect of development.

Let me say it again.

GROW UP!

By uhoh

September 11, 2007 2:58 PM | Link to this

cheerleaders filling space again with trash. Same thing everytime too many uncomfortable RE issues.

After Rich R they will go on a Fink rant.

Meanwhile, back at the RE issues, someone posted a condo under 200K in I think it was Slade, and seemed surprised.

Many 1/1 lower than that. Check in places like 616 Clearwater, 2800 N Flagler, 1805 N Flagler , 630 S Sapodilla, many,many,many others. “Even as we speak”.

Both Rich R and M Fink should be commended. Both do not sink to levels of the slimers and they back up postings with facts.

Keep up the good work guys. You obviously distress the phony RE touts.

By easyasabc

September 11, 2007 2:59 PM | Link to this

Does anyone know what the future holds????…..NAR could have not predicted the boom years coming….nor can they predict how long the mortgage crisis will last…..anyone has the insight of the stock markets or a certain stock ????????……if you do, please tell all…..I myself would not invest in stocks at this time, in matter of fact, real estate has been and always will be the best investment that anyone can get into…..but it all depends where and how much you want to spend on real estate……..if your home is paid for, or you are doing well on paying off your mortgage, you will be ok……”flippers” from the past two years are the ones who are in trouble, and the very few who are left, are professional “flippers”……most of the first time flippers, have become first time landlords or got into foreclosure, bad credit and years of money problems…….and employers like to do background check on their employees…..one cannot imagine what employers can buy on background checks of their future employees……………Rich R. said our area is “toast”…..only our area????…..what is the decline here ???…. a minus 3 or 4% ??????….Madmax will back this one up…..we did not have that 50-70% drop that some of the “have nots” have predicted……what the “have nots” could not predicted was themselves getting cut off from the lenders on any type of loan………the ones who do have cash or have sold, can buy again……..areas they have become “toast” is areas like Tampa, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Denver……areas like Detriot, St. louis or Cleveland cannot be counted in areas of down real estate…..these areas are old, crime ridden and have no hope decades to come on rebuilding…….I do not count San Diego area due the economy is far better than these “toast” areas………which comes to my next point, our economy……Palm Beach County was once home to many large corporations, that had high paying professional jobs….. but not anymomre…..we have become a service industry area, which can be good for a few and bad for most….owners have cash businesses, they can buy the upscale real estate properties….and workers are paid low wages, which most become renters or live in old, low cost housing……….we are now going into the bio-tech area……this will not happen overnight, but will pay off large dividends in the future………this area is not far behind from last years median average….recovery can happen very fast in this area before other areas in this country……Raleigh has 7% rise in real estate….which if you take the average median price there in Raleigh, it is about little over $14,000……while our average median appreciation is about $20,000 a year………Palm Beach or Raleigh, it is a matter of choices as Rich R. said, one area for the low median income family, the other for the above average median family…….I do agree both areas has the rich and the poor, mansions and slums,…… they have rednecks, we have rednecks…..their rednecks live in trailers with sattilite dishes on top of them….ours live on one acre estates out west with chickens running around along dirt roads……Raleigh have fresh baked pies….we have the frozen stuff from the grocery stores…….they have Carolina Gal and Average Guy….we have RCA and the Cityplace Pasta Squatter ……we both share the same ocean, only it takes Raleigh residents to drive an hour to see water as they get to the top of their small hills…….it takes residents in Wellington and Boynton Beach just one hour to get out of their road construction neighborhoods to arrive to the beach……..Yes we do have trailer parks, but they are being bought up and closed down for new condo developments….while new residential developments in the Raleigh area is a new trailer park…….Raleigh has actor Erik Estrade selling lake view lots in remote mountain sides….we have Donald Trump building high rise condos along the ocean….it is a matter of choice………what we have all witness in the past months is a “scare” tactic by various speacial intrest groups to re-ignite the real estate intrest at a lower price…..people who did move here and bought real estate, are not going to sell less for those who cannot afford here or for those who want to buy and then flip themselves for a higher price………maybe the “have nots” need to go back to my anger mangerment program I once told some of you to do awhile back and just walk out in the street or go down to the beach and yell out …”I am mad as hell, and I am not going to take it anymore”……because we know that deep, down inside, the “have nots” are mad at ther real estate market, and they need to do something to release their anger……..so just relax, some of you people have your panties up to tight…..life is good to many of us and will get even better…..at the end, none of us can take anthing with us…..how many of you ever saw a Wells Fargo or a Brinks bank truck in a funeral procession??????……I got to go …….and Rich R., what is the pie of the week at the local bakery nearby you????……I can’t wait for pecan pie to hit my favorite bakery.

Life is good in Palm Beach

easyasabc

By uhoh

September 11, 2007 3:01 PM | Link to this

cheerleaders filling space again with trash. Same thing everytime too many uncomfortable RE issues.

After Rich R they will go on a Fink rant.

Meanwhile, back at the RE issues, someone posted a condo under 200K in I think it was Slade, and seemed surprised.

Many 1/1 lower than that. Check in places like 616 Clearwater, 2800 N Flagler, 1805 N Flagler , 630 S Sapodilla, many,many,many others. “Even as we speak”.

Both Rich R and M Fink should be commended. Both do not sink to levels of the slimers and they back up postings with facts.

Keep up the good work guys. You obviously distress the phony RE touts.

By Rich R

September 11, 2007 3:20 PM | Link to this

It seems that apple pie is all the rage here now. LOL

It’s nice to see that Easy has not lost his sense of humor.

Your a trip Easy.

By Get in the Game

September 11, 2007 3:34 PM | Link to this

In the end, I am confused with all the hype poised towards the residential sector. The prices doubled from 2000-2005, and in many cases in FL, much more than that. Florida homeowners should be running to the bank, not crying so much. You could be living in Oklahoma, Indiana, or Detroit…enjoy those returns.

So, if you have a 130%+ increase over five years, cash out. If you do not need to cash out, wait.

Any institution (CALPERS, Harvard Endowment Fund) or private entity (Warren Buffett) would LOVE 25%+ returns for five straight years (for doing nothing). Why again, doesn’t CALPERS, Harvard, or Warren Buffett own any residential real estate? Oh yeah, almost forgot, they are not S-E-E-I-N-G the true value in the pricing and they are not I-N-V-E-S-T-O-R-S.

In most cases, no improvement in fundamentals, adding significant value (square footage, not the APPEARANCE of value (L-U-S-H landscaping and some paint)), or anything besides just sitting there was done to most properties, but still furnishing a 25%+ yield?

The S&P 500 just took 7 years to rebound from all-time highs; but

Residential real estate IS different, IS insulated, you truly mean IS an emotional wreck of “opinion of value”, inefficiency, and immunity from the supply/demand fundamentals that apply to just about everything else in the open market.

So what if FL home prices drop 10% - 15% in 2007; AND

Another 10% - 15% drop in 2008…SO WHAT

And another in 10% - 15% drop in 2009

Does it truly matter? The individuals who acquired properties in 2000-2002, in most cases STILL have a 100%+ return WITH the drop in prices.

All markets rise and fall. And South Florida is going to fall (in prices) as well. The funny part, the longer Sellers wait, the more multi-billion dollar companies file for bankruptcy, and ultimately the more pain Sellers shall feel.

Perfect example, WCI. Carl Icahn (billionaire) offered WCI $22/share on March 13, 2007. But WCI actually MADE FUN of Icahn and his “insufficient” offer (reads like local Sellers). Well, now that stock is trading at less than $9/share. Real funny, I tell you. And, by the way, WCI shall continue to decline, because Goldman Sachs reported no one, that means GLOBALLY wants to put in an offer. Real, real funny.

So, again why is everyone crying?

Take your profits (which are better than most asset classes for doing NO work); or

Wait until 2012+ when the market returns to normal 6% - 8% annual appreciation, once again.

Trust me, not many people were complaining (even the NAR/FAR cheerleaders) when prices were clipping at 25%+ returns in many areas of the country in the 2002-2004 timeframe. So, why start complaining now?

2009? That’s a dream. Every six months, these “pundits” have been adjusting their rebound timeline to the right (about six months, go figure).

But I am sticking with 2010-2012 for up and down appreciation. And 2012 for NORMAL appreciation.

By Max is not complaining

September 11, 2007 4:34 PM | Link to this

Max is not complaining because he runs his properties like a business, not a crap shoot.

It is not a big deal for me if real estate fluctuates as much in 2 years as the stock market does in 2 days.

I have great tenants, and a price boom right now would really do nothing to benefit me — my tenants have leases.

Want to predict the future? I’ll save you the trouble. Over the long haul, real estate is always up — way up — anywhere people would want to live.

As it turns out, it was Rich R. who said probably the single stupidest thing I have ever heard anyone say:

“Anything is only worth what you can sell it for TODAY.”

Don’t plant an acre of corn, as in my parable above — sell the seed for a few cents. Don’t invest in education — get a job doing what you can TODAY.

What a schmuck. Like my dog, he lacks the ability to envision such a thing as tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow — something which places him beneath the great apes among primates.

The entire notion of building wealth - real wealth, not Rich R type “wealth” which came from hustling - is the understanding that some things ARE utlimately worth more than you can sell them for TODAY.

A seed will grow into a great elm. A child will grow into a warrior or a genius (this child is not related to Rich R.). An acorn will be the predecessor of a forest.

There will always be an a*****e like Rich R. telling you that you are wrong, you can’t do it, you can’t be more than you are —- and you can’t be more than him, living in a log cabin dump in the middle of Sothern White Trashurbia.

Have the wisdom to see past people like that, past yourself, past the end of the day.

Increasing assets will ultimately rise in value, versus dollars which are continually falling. Your ability to acquire and manage appreciating assets — houses, stocks, gems, art, businesses, your own intellect, the seeds you plant — will determine your financial future — not whether your home is worth 5% more or less for 18 months out of your lifetime.

By Curious

September 11, 2007 4:58 PM | Link to this

BIG SURPRISE … ?

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/pf/07/subprime-impact.asp

Changing the subject.

Since this IS September 11, here is an appropriate download all here may want to consider:

http://www.deskflag.com

By Rich R

September 11, 2007 5:10 PM | Link to this

One of the best ways to tell you are correct is when the opposing folks come out with fangs and verbal attacks.

I guess I am 100% correct, but only time will tell.

It’s apparent to me that the ones that choose to bash me are the ones that are in deep trouble.

I’m sorry to realize that, for your sake. Perhaps you should take a step back and re-assess your situation and alter your course to acheive your individual goals.

I did, and it worked out well.

Semi-Retired, nice net worth and this means I don’t have to take guff from anyone; including some uneducated pinhead on this blog.’

Just hilarious.

One this is true. Over time, RE WILL go up. It’s only a function of time. If you can carry the property for YEARS, you will see gains.

The problem is this: If you account for inflation, taxes, maintanence, HOA, reduced value over the short term, what will that gain net?

If you were to put the same $$ into a secure CD, you’d see a higher gain over the SoFla RE market.

Just one man’s opinion.

Just Toooooo funny.

By BLOG ALL-STAR STUPIDEST LIST

September 11, 2007 5:34 PM | Link to this

1) Rich R.

2) Curious

3) Kurt from Chicago

4) RCA

5) Mike Fink

Whaddaya say folks, is it unanimous?

By To Rich R.

September 11, 2007 5:44 PM | Link to this

You give yourself too much credit.

By Rich R's "nice net worth"

September 11, 2007 6:02 PM | Link to this

Rich R’s entire ball of wax is probably about 1.2 to 1.6 million — less than a couple age 65 can retire on, according to every CFP in Florida.

Less than the old folks sitting in 40K condos in Century Village are worth, while they collect their civil servants’ pensions.

And to do this, Rich R has lied, exaggerated, conned people, bashed South Florida, glorified Buttf**k, NC, and hustled land from old black widows.

Is this the guy you want to take advice — OF ANY KIND — from?

By MY VOTE

September 11, 2007 6:43 PM | Link to this

Yes, RICH R number 1 for stupid — but you are overvaluing him. I would say 700K tops, and that includes the 170K or so he had an orgasm over on line a year ago.

By Toothless in N.C.

September 11, 2007 9:05 PM | Link to this

Hey Rich, Does your wife howl at night? She probably uses her gums to knawl at you. Make sure her shots are up to date.

By 700K?

September 11, 2007 9:43 PM | Link to this

While I think 700K is not enough to retire on, I’m a 44 yr old, still working, family man, and our net worth is just at 700K, according to my accountant. That includes the equity in our residence, which he lowered in value to reflect today’s true market value. Believe me, I thought it was too low of a figure, but it is his figure for the house, not mine.

Anyway, with two kids headed to college in a few years, do you guys think I should be concerned that my net worth will not be as much as I need to live comfortably?

There really is no inheritance of any kind that I am counting on either.

I would think 1.2 to 1.6 million could throw off 100K in income yearly, which is fine with me.

Thanks for the input. Don’t be too hard on me, I’m asking a serious question, and the 700 number prompted me to spill my guts.

By Inbred

September 11, 2007 9:44 PM | Link to this

Ya all leave my Ritchie alone. This is his sister, Opps I mean wife speaking. I might not have teeth due to having meth mouth and scabs due to chronic itching but leave my husband, I mean brother alone. That green drip he caught was not his fault. Our cousin scotter gave it to me and I passed it on to Ritchie.

By SweetHomeChicago

September 11, 2007 10:22 PM | Link to this

Someone accuses Rich of having lied, exagerated, and conned? Who is the pot calling the Rich kettle black? Easy? Max? One of Max’s dozen pseudonymns?

The king of lies, cons, and exagerations is Max and his gang of pseudonymns. He likes to think of himself as the ultimate authority of this blog, perhaps he is. But, this is just a blog. Its the cyber world. People like Max can recreate themselves into anything they want to be to feel like somebody.

If anybody has lied, and exagerated, its Max and his mindset. Max acts like a desperate man on the verge of losing everything..his business…his next egg…his lifestyle…and his women. he wont be able to afford to buy his high priced Boca Babe dates anymore. He will actually have to find himself some character and personality, so that he might meet a woman who will date him for him, not his money.

Easy, the one who composes responses one by one, with a smug air of self righteousness. Mr. Haves vs Havenots. A guy so deluded in his own world that he seemingly cant believe that there are renters who are financially stable, and perfectly content in their lives. Life is not define exclusively by ones status as a homeowner or renter.

Oddly enough, most of you regular bloggers seem to have New York roots. Surely you must know that many New yorkers live their whole life as renters, and do fine.

BUying only makes sense if you can afford to buy WHAT you want, WHERE you want. Anything less is asking for years of stress, trouble, and possibly financial ruin. Max, Easy, you make no sense by urging folks to just buy ANYTHING in ANY neighborhood just to get in on the ownership game, then move up from there. HOW does onw move up from there? In order to move up, one must sell their current home. Seeing that the only thing in their price range was a run down shack in the Boynton hood, how do you expect them to sell it? No one wil want to buy it. Ask any of the thousands of investors, flippers, and speculators who are trying to unload their ill-fated Boynton investments.

Hey I like that list of the 'blog all-stars'!  They are truly the most interesting and entertaining posters for sure.  You must really like that Chicago guy, as he is constantly being mentioned here, despite the fact that he doesnt post that often.  ou know what they say...When you always talk about someone on a blog, you secretly enjoy and admire what they have to say.

By Steve

September 11, 2007 10:51 PM | Link to this

Wow, Max and Easy are still here. I thought for sure you guys would disappear after all your bad predictions. So, you aren’t ready to admit defeat?

By Clematis

September 11, 2007 11:12 PM | Link to this

Talk of Clematis reminded me of 610 Clematis. Maxi or someone spoke of that at one time.

Checked to see how sales went so far this year. Not bad, relatively speaking .

Of 5 sales 3 were higher than last sale.

However 1 repo and 1 listed short sale.

331 paid 281K Jan 2006 , short sale list 250K, “bring offers”.

310 paid 525K Apr 2006 Bank owned June 2007, listed at 415K, “bring offers”

Soooo, if we count the repo and short sale, that makes 3 with higher than previous and 4 with lower.

Sorry maxi. Guess it was true, only some prices were “rising as we speak”.

Others were/are frigging tanking.

By Eddie Haskell

September 11, 2007 11:16 PM | Link to this

Top 5 Max pseudonymns:

cw1900 FLren Curious WhoCares RCA

bonus guess as to the ID behind Max, and/or Easy…Jeff O?

By Max laughs at Steve

September 11, 2007 11:25 PM | Link to this

Actually, Steve, all my forecasts have been correct. Read a few and look at the date, then see where the numbers went. In fact, why don’t you quote me where you think I was wrong?

BTW Steve, How did they miss you for the top 5 stupid? Was it purely by your recent absence? I mean, I sort of like you, Steve, but you have to admit that public opinion militates against you in regard to your intellect.

Chicago Boy is here. I have to admit that, no matter what he says, he just sounds more and more stupid. Every time I think of Chicago, I think of the Reverend Louis Farakhan. I think he captures the spirit of Chicago better than any other ambassador.

Finally to 700, who has an actual qustion: personally, I don’t ANYONE is safe. But what counts is your house. The physical structure, the functional, usable shelter. Maybe your house is worth 300K, maybe 400K, maybe more. But when the day comes when you need a thousand bucks to go to the grocery store, and 300K basically gets you nothing, your house will still be your, or someone’s, salvation.

By Steve

September 11, 2007 11:50 PM | Link to this

I guess absence explains my not making the top 5, maybe I’m sixth. But, seriously, the news on housing is soo bad lately, even I’m tired of hearing it, sort of. I stand to gain from it’s decline though. Haven’t you been bullish on housing Max?

By No-bull Max

September 12, 2007 1:07 AM | Link to this

Steve, you have to own property. You have to be acquiring it all the time. This notion of being “bullish” on housing — or bearish — comes from people who mistakenly think that you trade buildings or land like stocks.

To me the concept of being “bullish” on real estate is ridiculous. It’s like saying, “Are you bullish on getting enough to eat?”, or “Are you bullish on not having heart attacks?”

This idea of watching housing prices as though real estate were the stock market is also an unfortunate outgrowth of having computers coming out of everyone’s a*****e. Twenty years ago we didn’t even track housing price statistics on a monthly basis. At the risk of sounding archaic, common sense actually prevailed until that time: what was the point of trying to determine a month-by-month value of something you sold once in 20 to 50 years? Thank Heaven I was raised in an era when you could live your life without constantly worrying about how much your house was worth.

In those days, it didn’t matter what your house was theoretically worth on a month-by-month basis. What many folks don’t get is: it STILL doesn’t matter — unless you are doing something wrong.

Nonetheless, the industrialized world is seized by this “baseball mentality.” You have to know every pitch every pitcher threw to every batter in every game, every year in history.

You have to know a hitter’s record against every pitcher the league, and vice verse. You have to know if it’s lefty vs. righty, righty vs.lefty, two righties, two lefties, who throws 2 fastballs followed by a change, who has a better slugging per centage against curve balls instead of sliders, and on and on ad nauseum.

This same neurotic attention to supernumerary detail is responsbile for headlines that appear when the median price of houses moves down 5 per cent or up 8 per cent. People actually think about this as if it were an event! The very sickest out there actual track asking prices as they change.

I probably crunch more number than anyone on this blog, simply because it’s my academic training and professional experience. I come to the same conclusion again and again and again: this is all a big nothing.

People who own a 400K house today and hang on, will own an 800K house in 10 years. Or 20. Whatever. And whatefer a dollar is then. It matters not. The alternative — not having owned property — is not a viable option.

By Rich R

September 12, 2007 8:13 AM | Link to this

I do have to say I am very impressed by the level of response my post’s received.

This simply validates my posts.

Sometimes the true hurts.

Have at folks. Perhaps if you bash me, you will vent that frustrations and leave the wife and kids alone.

Fine with me.

I find it very funny that people have to stoop to such low levels just because you disagree with me. It’s quite entertaining.

ENJOY!

By To Max

September 12, 2007 9:24 AM | Link to this

Are you still behing your silly idea that property historically appreciates at 12% per year?

And with all those attacks at Rich, it just shows that the cheerleaders don’t have any facts left to argue. All they can do now is throw insults, which is understandable since most of them will be filing for Chapter 7 soon.

By cw1900

September 12, 2007 9:54 AM | Link to this

Short and sweet this morning…..

cw1900’s just put his money where his mouth is…..no insults, no bankruptcy, just action.

Closed. Simple transaction. Seller needs cash. Seller moving out of state. Two golf course lots, Citrus County. One on 17th fairway frontage. The other 11th fairway frontage close to green. Beautiful lots. Nice homes nearby. Cheap taxes while I wait it out.

65 cents on the dollar. Cash. Proceeds from sale of some stock. Loan amount is zero.

Hold time, 3 - 5 years.

Bought on maximum pessimism. The money was made on the buy.

Last 5 business days, 7 stocks trades (buy and sell), 1 real estate transaction………. a BUY.

Done.

cw

By timeframes

September 12, 2007 10:20 AM | Link to this

Amazing how finally starting to recognize RE mkt is tanking has some posters changing time referances.

From “prices rising as we speak” to

“People who own a 400K house today and hang on, will own an 800K house in 10 years. Or 20. Whatever.”

The problem for thousands who bought in 2005/2006 will be to “hang on”.

There was never an argument against buying a home to reside in, if buyer could afford to carry it.

The “prices rising as we speak ” folks have been touting PBC Re for 2 years, saying here is different, immune to mkt fluctuations. Buyers could sell any time they wanted to for profit.

Many who believed that and bought, are now “flucked” by those fluctuations, and will not be able to “hang on” for the traditional time spans.

Ins costs, RE taxes, HOA, Mtgs, etc are already taking their toll.

As carrying costs rise quicker than most incomes, more homes will have to go on mkt.

Looking at current inventory, lack of qualified buyers, tightened credit, sellers are going to be lucky to get out breaking even.

Just WAY too much inventory and sellers competing for shrinking pool of buyers who are qualified and even want these properties.

By CW, you chicken$%^&

September 12, 2007 10:55 AM | Link to this

Are you still too scared to buy in PB County?

By cw is an idiot

September 12, 2007 10:58 AM | Link to this

He calls us idiots. cw is an idiot for buying anymore property in Florida, especially in some redneck place in north FL. Personally, I hope he loses all his money.

By Rich R

September 12, 2007 11:08 AM | Link to this

This just cracks me up.

CW has been posting on this blog for a long time and his opinions have not changed at all.

He’s posted enough for us to gauge that he’s a rational, intelligent and conservative investor.

I’d count you CW doing well on this investment. He didn’t finance, and in with cash. Raw land, low taxes, no carrying costs.

Even if he has to hold for a longer period of time then he plans, I think he’ll do just fine with this.

The stock market is very volitile now and I too have pretty much pulled out of the markets and staying in a cash basis.

As SoFla is sinking fast, many of the folks that are bailing from SoFla are moving to northern parts of the state.

Good Luck CW.

I really like the 65% buy.

By help

September 12, 2007 11:09 AM | Link to this

159 Evergrene Pkwy 10C 3/2

Palm Beach Gardens

Paid $365,750 in 2005..

Days On Market: 286

Current List Price: $299,900

Initial List Price: $379,000

01/04/07 - Price Reduced to $359,000 02/22/07 - Price Reduced to $345,000 04/25/07 - Price Increased to $359,000 08/31/07 - Price Reduced to $299,900

Nice try with price INCREASE 04/25/07. That sometimes works, but not in todays market.

By n8tive

September 12, 2007 11:19 AM | Link to this

Guys,

All it will take is for the Fed to lower interest rates by a half point or so for this situation to end. It has to. I don’t remember any time in our history where home prices declined NATIONWIDE! Yes, you can find a few exceptions, but most of these are out of the way places where no one wants to live, or were starting from a very low price to begin with. They are anomolies.

The real problem here is the credit squeeze, and it is beginning to affect the broader economy. It has prolonged the RE downturn, and now that the stock market is being affected and leveraged buyouts are drying up, Bernacke will be forced to action.

Unfortunately, he didn’t give a damn about individual homeowners being hurt, but now that the institutional investors and other money moguls are whining because of the credit crunch, action will be taken. He will not want the political backlash from being named as the one who caused a recession by keeping credit too tight.

Let’s see what happens on the 18th.

By Rich R

September 12, 2007 11:25 AM | Link to this

i really don’t think that 1/2 point will do much for the residential market.

The foreclosures and inventory are over too extreme right now.

1/2 point will help the stock market and institutional and commercial markets more.

But who knows for sure. It definately can’t hurt, that’s for sure.

But I wouldn’t bank on much relief from a move by the Fed Res. Board.

By jealous of cw?

September 12, 2007 11:35 AM | Link to this

I frequent that area of the state as my sister and husband live over in Dunnellon. 2 posts appear to this watcher that there’s some jealousy of our friend Cw. I’m going to have fun watching this one. Incidentally, he may be right. The Suncoast Parkway over there has been proposed to go into Citrus County for awhile now. It is clogged up in debate, but it will happen. When it does, it will be a fast commute to Tampa, thus the growth that will be guaranteed to occur over there. It’s only a matter of time, and our friend Cw is surely thinking that way.

By Max only Knows 1 Tune

September 12, 2007 11:46 AM | Link to this

Anyone who thinks I have changed my mind about anything should look back at what I have said. It looks like Steve has not accepted my challenge to find anything at all I was wrong about in past forecasts.

Congratulations to Farmer CW on buying more land (SEE my parable about two farmers and a dog, above or in recent column). I would say it’s like money in the bank, but I’d be lying. Money in the bank is dwindling in value, land is ultimately going to soar in value. Even our “lingua franca”, or demotic language in America aims at inculcating us with a belief in the America dollar. That is a faith which, if you have adhered to it, has cost you dearly in the last 5 years, whether you have figured that out yet or not.

n8tive has some interesting points, but I wouldn’t take this “nationwide” downturn to seriously: it is so small, much of it may be the result of samspling error. FAR never does tell us what confidence level it uses in the testing of their statistical hypotheses.

Finally, I still don’t understand the thinking of people who feel that their difficulty in carrying a house is somehow due to the slow market. Would the house cost less to carry if the market were hot and interest rates went still higher? Or are you begrudging the fact that you can’t like a surgeon, bury your mistakes (i.e. pawn off a house on someone else?).

I agree that 17 straight interest rate hikes is unprecedented stupidity that seemed improbable at the time, but it is still ultimately you that decided to buy a house you can’t carry.

If you are buying right, you should have some way to carry the house indefinitely.

Remember, you make the real money in real estate after about 25 years, when most of your (amortizng) mortgage is principle, rather than interest, and you are paying back with dollars worth a fraction of those you borrowed. The fact that dollars are a declining asset helps make property owners wealthy over time.

By n8tive

September 12, 2007 11:58 AM | Link to this

It will not be an overnight turnaround, but it sends a signal that will change the market psychology, which drove the boom and the bust with market overreaction in both directions.

There is a lot of pent-up demand, but all the negative media coverage in the last year has made people scared. It’s about time the media started reporting good news, and lowered interest rates will force them to.

It will also make it easier for homeowners to refinance sub-prime loans. It will help buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines get a lower monthly payment.

At that point, it will take a year or so to work through the inventory, if you haven’t noticed, nobody is building houses anymore except on a signed contract.

By sucks to be you

September 12, 2007 12:05 PM | Link to this

According to the Lake County Court Clerk website, Mr. Sukhram lives at 668 Winding Lake Drive in Clarmont. He took out an option ARM for $185k in August 2006 that had a 1% teaser for the first 3 months, and started adjusting immediately after that. He doesn’t actually have to pay the full interest & principal until Nov 2011. I wonder if his walmart job will give him that luxury…

By easyasabc

September 12, 2007 12:09 PM | Link to this

I missed the story about Clematis St. that was written the other day…..For those who are new here, we had a mayor named Nany Graham some years ago….she and others put together Cityplace and revised Clematis St. some years ago…..Cityplace had about five various design plans, and the city politicians took the worst design layout…..Graham had a husband who was involved in city renovation projects in south florida, received both city and county grants to do analyst reports on population growths, design standards, traffic patterns, new business start-ups,etc. ……I remember seeing paperwork for $350,000 on the new city hall project going to Nancy after she left office to her husbands firm……it was just B.S. talk and more of saying thank you from the developers……the main insight of Clematis is to have a major hotel/condo project replacing the exisitng library…..have a block of high priced townhomes of where the existing city hall is now….and tear down some of the older non-historical structures along Clematis…..what developers want is a more of a Park Ave. with high-rise condos all along Clematis St……with a tie in with Cityplace…..our politicians and developers use to sit along Clematis St. at various restaurants during lunch on Tuesdays and Thursdays, and map out the future of the city ……some of these people are now in jail…………some people talked about crime and gangs in the downtown area…..there was a couple of women who got mugged in front of the police station one night….yes, right at the front steps of the city police station…..there have been other crimes, but the city police department cannot help our citizens and the tourists….they are too busy making overtime at the local bars as door security …….anyway, if you like ot see what Clematis is all about, just walk around at midnight….you see underage drinking, cops talking and laughing with hookers and drunks pissing along the street……not a good image to try to sell to people with money…….we have our problems here, but other cities have the same problems also……we need strong leadership from our politician and police to change things around…..and we will not see it from this crowd who is now in office……..Graham and her hubby left the area for beautiful San Diego (she was smart)….she works for their city govt. now…….what I question was the lack of “real” higher income professional jobs that can be brought into this downtown section….a “real” downtown is one that supports businesses night and day…..many shops close up by 5pm, while the night clubs don’t get going until 10 at night…..Frankel wants to develope the waterfront, which would be a major disaster….leave it open….right now, the condos being built are casting giant shadows against each other….they should have been spaced out……the streets are narrow, and traffic will be a mess for years to come…….Frankel threw out Graham’s vision of the downtown area…. she wanted to play architect herself, and now sees the mistakes she is making….but in the long run, Frankel will head out of the area and live somewhere like Raleigh……Good Luck Rich !………knowing the real estate here, I can say that what areas will be targeted in the coming years, and which ones will be put off until banks can support various projects……before you build something, you need to have a commitment from various people…..you need to know someone will occupy the space you have……I am not into condos, but the value of the ones along Clematis area, will be a good one in the years to come…..what is a bargin now, will be a sure investment later down the road…….not everyone is in credit problems…..just because some of you are, does not mean the rest of the world is not making money……..there is real estate for everyones price range……not everyone can start at the top….most of the knowledgable land investors started at rock bottom in their careers……..personally, it is ones lifestyle to enjoy living in a downtown area…..that is why market firms look at the social classes for the builders and developers, of who would want to live in a downtown area…….Clematis St. lifestyle is for the young professional who likes to hang out at bars …whatever, it is a matter of choices…..some people like wooded areas with hills nearby…..others like waterview properties…..trailer life can be ok if you like to move around from one trailer park to another……and others like to rent alongside with people who have 12 relatives from Honduras in a one bedroom apartment…….Rich, what happen to your town newspaper blog site?????……guys run out of local talk????

easyasabc

By to sucks to be you

September 12, 2007 12:17 PM | Link to this

who gives a rat’s a*s? Like your wife, nobody cares.

By TO CW

September 12, 2007 12:55 PM | Link to this

Seriously, you have all this grand talk about vision and such nonsense, but you won’t buy any property here in PB County?

You talk about buying property elsewhere, which is no different than Rich R.

I would love to hear why you didn’t buy property in PB County? Don’t you have a “vision” here?

By Rich R

September 12, 2007 1:14 PM | Link to this

CW is too smart to buy in PBC.

Folks in PBC still feel property is worth 2005 prices, and that’s long gone along with the group of flippers/speculators that drive the prices to unsastainable levels in the first place. There is nothing you can say to me that would justify why a home that sold for $130K in 1998 is now worth $350K when there is are no buyers. It was nothing more then greed that caused the prices to go this high, and it’s now causing the downfall.

With the elements such as: Huge inventory, high taxes, very high insurance, HOA fees and rapidly falling prices, with no end in the near future, buying in PBC at this point could very well lead to big losses. Not to mention the unfairness in the way RE taxes are calculated.

It’s simply not fair to tax snowbirds a triple or quadtriple the amount of the people next door for an identical unit. People have wised up and no longer want to ge screwed like that.

This is not logical to begin with. Snowbirds are only here part of the year and draw much less on services, yet they are expected pay 3 or 4 times the taxes.

You can talk about how values will rise in the future, and that’s statistically true, but when you take into account inflation, carrying costs, maintenance etc, you may find that for the next few years, your money would find better returns elsewhere.

I hope this clears it up for you.

By crazydem

September 12, 2007 2:04 PM | Link to this

Sideliners need to get off CW’s back. He put his money where his mouth is. This is not a game of second life, it’s called making money through investing. If you can’t play with the real thing then go back to buying $500 watches to impress your friends.

Some of you are as scared of making any kind of investment involving risk as Joe Lieberman is of the Iranians. Did you hear him begging Petraeus yesterday if he would consider bombing Iran? Maybe Joe wants to swoop in an buy up some property there?

Wonder if the reason they threw Clematis under the bus is so their developer friends can come in during the down years and buy all the property back at a discount??? Anyone believe Frankel is loaded on prescription drugs??? I wouldn’t rely on Parking Meter Mumu wearing Frankel to revitalize downtown. If she keeps wearing those things she’s just going to scare everyone away. Do the sideliners honestly think anyone is watching out for them? Personally I don’t think Bernanke should lower the rates to appease all the speculators. We need a washout-market has run too far IMO.

People leaving PBC for NC, soon enough they’ll be screaming at the elected officials for new roads, etc. What do you think will happen to your taxes then, Rich??? BTW how fast are those fairways up there in 30 degree temps?

One more thing, no one, no one, and no one on this blog has ever even made so much a passing interest in the RE goings on at Evergreene or Slade. So to the idiot who posts these drivel constantly, (along with all your other anonymouse posts) go over to the Sentinel and post there. You’ll see Pasta Squatter running his campaign for a higher wage scale in PBC along with lower rents.

BTW I heard that renters are paying 30% of income on rent now also. Any they want lower prices???

By Rich R

September 12, 2007 2:56 PM | Link to this

Hey Crazydem,

The roads travel well during the winter. NC has a long history of dealing with this and seem to be prepared. The winters here are fairly mild compared to points north, and it rarely snows and I don’t think we had one day last winter were the temps were below freezing during the day. That’s not to say it don’t happen, but the frequency would be similar to the hurricanes that SoFla has to deal with. I could ask you “How well do the roads travel in the aftermath of big storm?” This is a retorical question of course.

With respect to the roads, NC has the “Highway Trust Fund” which is funded with gasoline tax and the state is building roads all over the place now.

There are two beltways that circle the city of Raleigh. One is I-440 (the Inter beltway) and then there is I-540 that is the outer beltway and under construction now. This allows for people to travel around the city and cut in at the most convinient point. This prevents congestion in a nice way.

Another thing to keep in mind is central NC does not have the geograpical boundries that SoFla has (Ocean to the east, and everglades to the west) with a narrow area of land to accomodate the high density that now exsists in SoFla.

Land here is plentiful and growth is very well managed. Things are spread out nicely and you won’t find 10,000 people living on 500 acres. Here, you will find that 1/2 acre is considered a small lot and on the same 500 acres, you will find less then 2,000 people.

Since things are spead out and the population density is not an issue, traffice moves very nice because they are not on top of each other.

I will say that in the area of the Research Triangle Park during the morning rush hour does get busy.

This is because of the 1,000’s of workers head to the BioTech companies there. Research Triangle Park is an area with a high concentration of Fortune 500 companies and is similar to the vision for Scripps. The difference is, RTP is real, it’s been here for years, and very established and successful.

You may have seen the recent report that Cary, NC has been rated one of the best places to live in the US. Cary borders the RTP, and this is the area of choice for the high earners that work in the RTP, along with many rentals to accomodate the 1,000’s of college students as there are 13 colleges/universities in close proximity.

But I do thank you for your concern about our roads and future growth.

After growing up in SoFla and watching the very poor growth managment, I was very careful when I explored areas to move to when I decided to leave SoFla for good. I looked at this issue very closely to ensure I didn’t have to live through the madness SoFla did over the past 10-15 years.

By Rich R

September 12, 2007 3:07 PM | Link to this

Crazydem,

One more point. i do agree with you that folks need to back off CW.

I’d speculate to say that if everyone managed their financial life the way CW does, we would not be seeing the sad state of affairs that currently exist in SoFla.

Instead of bashing CW, perhaps more could be gained if you read his post’s, ask valid questions, and learn from this gentleman. Notice that CW never reacts in a childish fashion even when people bash him. TAKE A LESSON.

By Curious

September 12, 2007 4:06 PM | Link to this

HEY HEY HEY!

Did ya notice today?

Didn’t CW just say he bought Florida real estate for 65 cents on a dollar?

Isn’t that the same as a multiple of .65, … Christine?

HEY HEY HEY!

Now where have y’all heard that before?

The South Will Rise Again; and some of us are Again going to enjoy a great relaxing time increasing our families’ net worth during the next couple years buying as much Florida real estate as our portfolio manager techies will allow.

Cheers! :-)

By to the cw lovers

September 12, 2007 4:26 PM | Link to this

that’s just great. everybody doesn’t love raymond, everybody loves cw. why don’t we just line up and all give him a great big blow@#$!!!! i’m sick and tired of hearing about cw, easy, rich r, and especially maxifag. this place is going to the birds and hey curious, you go buy up all the florida real estate you and your lover cw can swallow at your .65 multiple. have a great time. i’m selling my townhouse for anything and getting out of here as fast as i can. you all make me sick to my stomach. if i had a pile of extra money to buy extra houses, lots, and stocks with, the last place i would spend it would be here. you all suck.

By easyasabc

September 12, 2007 4:30 PM | Link to this

I believe Rich R. is homesick, that is why he hangs around here….and that “I have family and friends who live here” is nothing but B.S from him……fist off, his wife left him (took him to the cleaners) while he was in Boca….so there goes the family aspect…second, he has no friends here…unless he considers Pasta Squatter and Carolina Gal his pen pals……Rich, go order some take-out from one your local fine dining drive thru’s you have in Raleigh and watch a movie from your VHS machine………that must be something when you are hitting golf balls below 30 degrees……the little white one gets lost in the snow….and the golfer’s balls are turning blue as they searched for the discount ball that they bought in the discount giant golf ball tub at the local K-Mart….BTW Rich, what is your average for 18 holes?????…..I am always in the high 90’s, but I only golf five times a year….I really hate the game……as Rodney Dangerfield once said, “golf courses are the biggest waste of real estate”………….so true about the remark about population expansion….taxes will soon hit the Raleigh area for new roads, schools, EMS, and othr various infrastructure projects…….I think the one word that gets every in a tussle is “FEAR”…..FEAR always made man make moves throughout history that he later regreted……it just takes less than 1% of the baby boomers to make this market in Florida back where it was in 2005…….they will not settle in living in the cold after retirement…..even if 5% of the Baby Boomers wanted to go to either the Carolinas, Arizona, Las Vegas or here in Florida, there will be enough wealth to go around with……personally, I would not want to see 3% or more of the Baby Boomers move here in a mad rush………..Rich. sit back, watch the leaves turn, have some pie……any little old aferican-american widows want to sell any farm land in your area??????…..Before I forget, I was told there are realtors around town here who now show up at funeral parlors and handing out cards to family members of the decease to sell their property……how tacky……business is that bad??????

buying real estate has these merits…..shelter, family needs, financial growth and liking a community assets……..renting has these merits…..non-ownership of property, lack of funds to own property but willing to spend on other personal uses, temporary residence in a community, and the ability to pack up and leave asap, once your education background is unable to make a living in that community……..There is a big world out there folks…..life is more than having a place in Palm Beach or Raleigh……the more the “have nots” slam this area, the more they want in…….you can tell it from the way they write……can you see the “FEAR” in their writing about how they want they market to go here……the guy who writes about Evergrene must be some jerk who got tossed out by his wife there, so he will bash the neighborhood so his wife gets less when she sells after the divorce hearing……nothing special about that neighborhood…..they are next to the rail tracks……choo choo !

Time for a new story…….Where’s Linda these days????…is there a Pottery/Art Fair down in Pompano this week???????……we need more negative stories to be found so she can write about…….

easyasabc

By Rich R

September 12, 2007 4:42 PM | Link to this

Easy,

I carry a handicap of 11.

I hope that helps you.

After all this time, you want to bash me again?

I thought we worked through this last year.

Is it time to have those med’s adjusted again?

btw, I am not married but engaged. I am getting married in a few months.

She a Vet. Good for me with 5 English Mastiff huh?

Have another drink and relax a bit.

Really now….

By Rich R

September 12, 2007 5:50 PM | Link to this

Easy,

You speak of the boomers that will save the day for SoFla.

Let me tell you that the boomers are laughing at SoFla over the screw job they get when they do come to SoFla.

Oh yeah, let’s all just move to SoFla so we can pay 3 or 4 times the taxes of locals and support their schools, police, fire etc, and get nothing but rude people, horrible traffic, high insurance costs that don’t pay a claim anyway, and let’s not forget the simple fact that nobody speaks english in SoFla anymore.

When was the last time you drove down Military trail? I was there two weeks ago, and most of the billboards are in spanish. It’s nice to look at the pictures while you are stuck in traffic, but you can’t read them.

GET REAL!

Just too funny.

If this is true Easy, where are all these boomers? Why no sales volume?

If you have it all figured out, please explain to all of us why the boomers are not lined up at Max’s door to buy?

I’ll tell you why they are not here.

Florida for many years have put the screws to this group and they had enough and are now looking at other areas that will treat them fairly.

By Christine

September 12, 2007 6:41 PM | Link to this

CW: Congratulations!! That’s how business is done.

Curious: That’s exactly the kind of feedback I was looking for…I wanted to know what criteria other people use when making an offer under these market conditions.

Rich R: Whoa…5 Mastiffs?? That’s awesome, they are beautiful dogs. A friend of mine has a 240-pound boy, and she complains that I go visit her just to play with her puppy. I told her it’s true…

By Curious

September 12, 2007 11:59 PM | Link to this

Hold on, Christine.

The latest word I got from my advisor is that in a year or so from now, .65 may be too high – unless other factors are Involved, … like it is something you really really want beyond financial concerns.

Cheers!

By Larry Lang

September 16, 2007 10:51 PM | Link to this

The situation will only get worse. As a Realtor, I can see the increasing desperation in the market. The people who are going to be going into foreclosures, short sales and giving up and developers lowering prices below what they sold pre-construction properties for. Rental prices are declining and landlords cannot afford to make up the difference in the payments. There needs to be a drastic cut in property taxes and the banks must step in and assist homeowners who are in dire financial straits or we will face a crisis not seen before. Larry Lang http://www.southfloridarentals-homesales.com/