Home > Real Estate > Archives > 2007 > August > 01 > Entry
Short-term pain, long-term gain?
John Burford, investment portfolio manager at The International Bank of Miami, has some comforting advice for homeowners: In the long run, Florida real estate prices always rise.
But in the short run — as in the next year or two — Burford expects plenty of suffering. Just as buyers were irrationally exuberant up until late 2005, they’re now irrationally pessimistic, he says.
“Markets always overshoot,” Burford says.
Now, he says, it’s time for speculators and lenders to take their medicine for ignoring common sense during the boom. The capitalistic way, Burford says, is that bad decisions lead to financial losses.
“Nothing succeeds like excess,” Burford says. “(The Fed) wants to see the speculators punished. If you make bad loans, you’re supposed to be punished.”
Permalink | Comments (28) | Categories: Jeff Ostrowski
Jeff Ostrowski
Alexandra Clough



Comments
By cw1900
August 1, 2007 10:16 AM | Link to this
Good morning,
You may not believe this, but until I read the blog in the morning, I usually have no idea what I will type. This morning is easy.
“…Quality educated people of lesser networth eagerly line-up to lease from me whenever I have a vacancy because they want/covet an upscale lifestyle, but for whatever reason, (maybe they were too distracted in their working for others and/or got caught up in living the instant gratification short term high-life)they don’t have the means to live independently on that manner. You read articles about people like them everyday..”I haven’t saved enough yet to retire” or “I’ll be working until I die” etc. OK, so how does one go about not ending up in the same manner? Simple really, don’t play the “big shot” with your cash if you are just a little “shot….”
Thanks FL Ren. That says it all. There are people on this blog right now that can change their life by absorbing that philosophy and the rest of your post, if they would actually admit to themselves how they are screwing up their financial future. Ladies and gentleman of the “I’m in debt up to my eyeballs” segment of our society, do yourself a favor and learn something from FL Ren. The truth is, most won’t because of short sighted thinking, laziness, no self control, and financial ignorance.
Then there is that post from crazydem about Ms. Lee and Mr. Agüero. That echoes what FL Ren just talked about. Great article and great post.
“The Do I want an iPod or a house? Do I want a latte or a house?” That about explains it.
I’ve said this before and yes, I may have benefited from having the luxury of living among and growing up with this type of mentality, but 100% of the millionaires that I know, parents, relatives, and parents and grandparents of friends, etc, 100% of them did not win the lottery. 100% of them did not come from any means whatsoever and I mean that they all came from very poor to lower middle class upbringings. 100% of them worked hard from the ground up. 100% of them married well, as FL Ren put it, and never had separate money. It was all theirs, never his money or her money. 100% of them have never had a car payment in their lives, or if they did, it was years ago, and they will tell what a mistake it was in hindsight. 100% of them saved money each and every month. 100% lived on less than they made each and every month with few exceptions and emergencies. 100% of them went through their biggest earning years with little or no consumer debt except a mortgage. 100% never had an interest only mortgage. They are millionaires because of their hard work and sacrifices through the years. Most of you are jealous as you see someone who you think is a millionaire. What you are probably looking at is someone who looks good, but is one of you, in debt up to his or eyeballs. These millionaires I desribe drive around in 5 year old cars because they could care less about impressing you. Did you get jealous of FL Ren in his 4 yr old Benz? Good. He can afford to drive a $60,000 car because he also probably has a networth of $10 million. You idiots with your $40,000 leased cars have a networth of next to nothing, so you’re only kidding yourselves.
Look around at some of your eldery friends and family and you can find out this out for yourself. With very few exceptions, those who aren’t close to being millionaires did not live like I just described. Those that are, probably did.
Once again, you people, life is pretty easy, cut and dry, not much gray area. There is no magic formula and luck has little to do with accumulating wealth. I am not in the same league as FL Ren, Max, or a few others here, but I’ll be there eventually because I live my life as others have already proven to be the right way.
Next…
Welcome back, Max. Ok, I dropped the ball on the contest. Back from a weekend and I completely forgot until now. Just give us a new name, and we’ll forget about the contest. Max, it’s time to chew them up and spit them out.
Next…
Chicago boy is back with a new name…”P.W. Herman”. You can spot him a mile away, but he does make a couple of good points this time I can’t argue with. Max, I’m surprised you missed that” P.W. Herman” has to be Chicago boy.
Finally…
…and yes, if you just read the crazydem article, I wouldn’t know what “a pair of $300 Prada shoes” looks like. I did just buy a last year’s model of Nikes for $29.95 that were on clearance. I think they look great.
cw
By Boca Condo King
August 1, 2007 10:28 AM | Link to this
I also do not think that real estate will dive as much as the doomsayers say, but I do think that this is a good time to buy.
Does anyone know of a good place to find office condo listings? I can find plenty of residential listings, but for commercial property the internet tools seem awfully slim.
Boca Condo King.
By cw1900
August 1, 2007 11:20 AM | Link to this
The homebuilders are getting crushed today.
It’s darkest before dawn…
Buy on maximum pessimism…
We’re getting close, you people. I have my radar on a few banks and large caps, but not yet……fairly soon, though.
cw
By Rich R
August 1, 2007 1:08 PM | Link to this
Boy, I’ll tell ya, I wouldn’t want to live in Saratoga Bay.
WOW!
By Curious
August 1, 2007 1:39 PM | Link to this
Think this is pretty good investment advice.
What say you?
Things to dump now:
Home builders, Mortgage lenders, Investment real estate, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), Most banks, insurers and brokerage firms, and Companies that depend most heavily on the above.
Things to acquire now:
Foreign currencies, Oil, Gold, Other resources.
By Boca Condo King
August 1, 2007 1:44 PM | Link to this
Crazy Dem,
I do wish to buy, what I was asking for is for someone to point me towards a good internet tool to search for Office Condos. There are super resources for homes but I cannot find a good tool for commercial.
If shopping for commercial does the conventional wisdom on this board (aviod brokers) not hold?
Looking to buy an office
By crazydem
August 1, 2007 2:06 PM | Link to this
Condo King-Haven’t posted on here today except for the NYT article this morning-somebody’s posting in my name above-not sure what they’re referring to. Suspect it’s the same idiot telling stories about his HOA lawyers. Is it a concidence that Rich R shows his face right after those other anonymous rants???
By Observer
August 1, 2007 2:40 PM | Link to this
How can you call yourself a Condo King, if you don’t know your own market?
LOL
By Boca Condo King
August 1, 2007 3:04 PM | Link to this
I am the boca condo king cause I like to be called king as opposed to condo president.
I am looking for commercial property but outside of loop net (which is ok) I cannot find any place where a non RE professional can look for property to buy.
Any suggestions?
By WAKE UP
August 1, 2007 3:36 PM | Link to this
Okay – this is straight from the RS Means “Square Foot Costs”, 28th Annual Edition – 2007. So here we go – Means has 4 classes, Economy, Average, Custom & Luxury. All fairly self explanatory. For sake of argument we will use an Average house, 2,000 sf. By definition this is a single story house, from standard plans with 1 kitchen and 1 full bath, no basement, asphalt shingles, drywall interior finishes, average materials and workmanship – this would fit many standard houses in our area, especially late 50 to early 70s construction. Would also include many newer homes minus upgrades. So the base starting line for a house of solid masonry (concrete block) is $105.10 for 2,000sf – this is to include any overhangs (doesn’t apply here, but a finished basement would add $25/sf, unfinished $8.50/sf). At a minimum we need to add 1 bathroom - $4,997 and a 2 car attached garage $21,414, textured ceiling $.44 (popcorn is a texture), Air condition $3.04/sf, appliances $4,000 (standard ref, w/d, disposal, micro – not stainless), we’ll add a 200sf (20’x10’) covered (but open) patio $26.85/sf, so where does that put us? 2,000 x $105.10 = 210,200+4,997+21,414+880(popcorn)+6,080(AC)+4,000+5,370(porch/patio)=$252,941 or $126.47/sf for a very plain ordinary residence, not including exterior improvements. South Florida’s adjustment factor for construction costs, according to Means is .84-.85%, so that would equate to $106.23/sf. Folks, that’s a very “plain Jane”, no frills house. The Custom house starts at $122.75, but only adds a ½ bath to the Average house and slight finish upgrades, all other adds are still necessary, but more expensive. The Luxury house starts at $145.50, again adds a half bath, finishes are upgraded, keep all other adds, but more expensive. Means calculates these based on standard construction models and does not include some of the quirks we have here, such as storm shutters/impact windows. I used the .84 modifier that they offer, but don’t believe it applies; we are traditionally higher in costs compared to other parts of the country when I speak to owners and estimators from other parts of the country. Also for kicks, construction costs in S Fla are up by 44% over the last 10 years, so if you have data that you built a house in 1997 for say $80/sf, that would translate to $115.70/sf today. So what I have to say is to be very careful using sf numbers when evaluating constructions costs, every little detail adds money. People like to throw around sf numbers and say “I can build this for this much and that for XYZ”, when they don’t have a clue. In the examples above, if you start adding all the little luxury items that we have come to expect it adds up fast. Textured walls, granite countertops, marble floors, stainless appliances, wood cabinets and doors, split ranges, 3rd and 4th baths, landscaping, pools (I know pools mean little to resale, but you have to pay to build them), 3 car garages, cement tile roofing, screen enclosures, it’s really not that farfetched to approach $175/sf for a 6 bed 4 bath house with nice finishes, remember this is not including property value. A $50,000 lot adds $20/sf to a 2,500 sf house…so if you look at a builder who’s charging you $200/sf for a “McMansion” as some folks like to say, including property, 3,500 sf at $700,000….well maybe it’s not that bad….One thing to keep in mind is that sf costs increase as the structure size decreases, so a 1,200sf house will cost more per sf than a 2,000sf…it’s called economy of scale, there are fixed costs for both houses that can’t be avoided, less structure to divide by, it artificially increases the per sf costs…
By FL Renaissance
August 1, 2007 5:51 PM | Link to this
Good fact based, unemotional post by Wake Up! Fink and his charting pays no mind to these facts preferring instead to keep on waiting for the Great Pumpkin to arrive.Paralysis by Analysis, I guess.
By Master Builder
August 1, 2007 7:47 PM | Link to this
Is the average house built by union tradesmen, or wetbacks who were picking fruit last week?
Is the price of the land the same out in the Acreage as in West Delray or in North Palm?
What about various building material costs?
Frame? Concrete? CBS? Matchsticks?
Don’t forget insurance and liabilty costs for a home construction project.
Fink and his crowd are doomed.
Banker John Burford said it just like EZ, Florida prices are on the rise.
By WAKE UP
August 2, 2007 9:37 AM | Link to this
wow - people are cutting and pasting with my name now…not sure what post from 9:24 is about (is it supposed to have a point?), but it’s not mine….
By to wake up
August 2, 2007 9:59 AM | Link to this
wake up,
$70sq ft is extremely low in my opinion. is that based on overall total sq footage or the “under air” overly used number? Even if that $70 is total sq footage, that number seems very low. It seems in today’s market that should be closer to $100 for a very average, just maybe a little bit above “no frills” type of single family home. That number does not include the parcel of land, of course.
I am assuming my rough figure of $100 includes the mimimal amount of landscaping required for code and the average sized square cement parking area in front of the garage, but not the entire driveway.
What is the $70 you speak of, and then give us an idea of how that number increases from what point and with what?
Also, to properly price a house, taking into account the price we settle on for this average new home, then is their any general guidelines in determining subtracting dollars for the age of the dwelling, etc?
By WAKE UP
August 2, 2007 10:26 AM | Link to this
to: to wake up - I can’t help you with the $70/sf figure - I don’t know why someone posted that under my name - please see my earlier post from yesterday afternoon…
To answer the second part of your question, there are guidlines published by Means for depreciating a structure or structures sub-systems based on age and general level of condition. Not enough space to reproduce here, but there is a standard sliding scale, i.e. 1% for every 5 years for a house in good condition (this is just an example, not what’s published).
By WAKE UP
August 2, 2007 10:39 AM | Link to this
apparently I have a rabid fan - I’m going to go away for a little while now…I think most of you will know/recognize which posts are actually mine…
By cw1900
August 2, 2007 11:14 AM | Link to this
Nothing going on here today except somebody pretending to be Wake Up, and the freaks continuing on about some HOA that nobody cares about. Do us all a favor if you want to tell the world about your HOA problems, at least clue us in on what the problem is or stop wasting our time.
$70 per square foot ought to buy a nice trailer in Haverhill.
cw
By cw1900
August 2, 2007 11:30 AM | Link to this
1124am post not mine.
anything else with my name for the rest of the day is this high school kid imposter who’s parents leave him alone while at their jobs as winn dixie cashier and security guard.
By Rich R
August 2, 2007 11:49 AM | Link to this
Hey cw, we know which posts are from you. Don’t worry, buddy.
By easyasabc
August 2, 2007 12:25 PM | Link to this
Rich R, if you come on this blog anymore, I’m going to report you to the Mayberry Pie Eating contest.
By Rich R
August 2, 2007 12:31 PM | Link to this
I resemble that remark. You have no idea who you are folling with.
By Rich R
August 2, 2007 12:33 PM | Link to this
Cw, I had respect for you, but now, you can just go to heII.
By WAKE UP
August 2, 2007 12:50 PM | Link to this
This is BS, man. I’ll come back when easyasabc grows up.
By Cw1900
August 2, 2007 12:54 PM | Link to this
What is a wife beater shirt?
Cw
By blog police
August 2, 2007 1:37 PM | Link to this
Since it appears that we have an imposter among us today, who apparently has very much time on their hands and has been following the blog for a while, and will not allow any true discussion…a few gems…
“In view of the fact that God limited the intelligence of man, it seems unfair that he did not also limit his stupidity.” -Konrad Adenauer
“I wash my hands of those who imagine chattering to be knowledge, silence to be ignorance, and affection to be art.” -Kahlil Gibran
“A stupid man’s report of what a clever man says is never accurate because he unconsciously translates what he hears into something he can understand.” -Bertrand Russell
“Men are born ignorant, not stupid. They are made stupid by education.” -Bertrand Russell
“Be more concerned with your character than with your reputation. Your character is what you really are while your reputation is merely what others think you are.” -Dale Carnegie
“If you lose your wealth, you have lost nothing, If you lose your health, you have lost something, But if you lose your character, you have lost everything.” -Woodrow Wilson
“It’s good to shut up sometimes.” -Marcel Marceau
By blog police
August 2, 2007 4:56 PM | Link to this
wow - people are cutting and pasting with my name now…not sure what post from 1:37 is about (is it supposed to have a point?), but it’s not mine….
By forall
August 3, 2007 1:31 AM | Link to this
yapy yap …yada yada yada all talk…mean while this world is turning into s**t …yeah fu**ed you know I’m rich I have a big house…nice car…no car payments a hell with it, you know…I work my butt hole all my life…it is just ignorant not to realize that we live in materialistic world, thats what you guys care about…I feel sorry for your children and for your grand children to come…because they minds will be fill with the most insignificant bs…to have, what others don’t bravo…bravo…bravo
tomorrow i will tell my son the the most important thing is to have , money, nice car, nice shoes s**t, thats great I like that, son thats what life is all about…I got to read more of this, read the palm beach post.
By Rich R
August 3, 2007 8:08 AM | Link to this
The posts from yesterday afternoon were not posted by me.
I guess someone is entertaining themselves by using my name.
CW, I think you know better.
Rich R