By Hah I'm First

May 15, 2007 1:00 PM | Link to this

I just had to beat BIG ROB to the first post.

You know he likes to feel big.

By No Housing Slump Here

May 15, 2007 1:28 PM | Link to this

What will the Max spin machine say about this?

Accounting to him and others on this blog there is no housing slump.

By Average DiVosta Guy

May 15, 2007 1:33 PM | Link to this

Where can the average DiVosta guy with an average home building company job build an affordable home in Palm Beach County?

Did you know 90% of people living in Palm Beach County can’t afford to build or buy a single family home here.

Average DiVosta Guy

By easyasabc

May 15, 2007 2:05 PM | Link to this

Rich R., Carolina Gal and all of the “half-backs” in the Carolinas are in mourning…..Rev. Falwell has died today…..quick, someone get the listing on his house from his widow……..he will be buried later this week……pie will be served afterwards……homosexuals, non-believers and Hugo Chavez are not welcome to the funeral.

Average Guy -

You need to get out….nothing is average here anymore…..and no one cares about the 90% out there who can’t afford here…or haven’t you notice?????….as the Queen from France once said…”Let them eat cake”

DiVosta made millions and millions off of all of you people for the past 25 years…..and we are suppose to feel sorry for them now?….Just another corporate american company who got greedy and have to suffer with the rest of the folks…..people will never learn from past mistakes.

easyasabc

By WAKE UP

May 15, 2007 2:23 PM | Link to this

It’s unfortunate for the employees and their families, but it’s a positive sign for the market. Fewer new homes to compete with the existing inventory.

By Rich R

May 15, 2007 2:57 PM | Link to this

Easy,

Why r u picking on me? I welcomed you back.

btw, I am not a half back. I grew up in SoFla.

By New Realtors Game

May 15, 2007 3:00 PM | Link to this

There is a new realtors game in town. This is how it is played.

No realtor is to take a new listing unless they can price the listing 20% below the lowest priced home in that area right now. Yes, that is what the average broker is telling their average realtor these days. There are 2 benefits to that. First, if the realtor won’t list your home with the other home prices in your area, and if you don’t like that new listing price they are asking for, chances are you won’t put your house on the market. That keeps the inventory of homes on the market from rising anymore.

Second benefit is for all those flippers out there ready to pick up the new listings that are coming out 20% less than existing listings in their area to start flipping all over again.

Realtors have so many games and gimmicks going on out there right now. If you see a house that is listed well above everyone else in your area, chances are that house belongs to a realtor trying to get out themselves.

Does anyone have the new numbers of how many realtors are left here now?

By Rich R

May 15, 2007 3:56 PM | Link to this

For the Cheerleaders. Here are some hard numbers for you to chew on.

The list below will show what’s really going on in the market, despite what Max would have you believe.

Here is how the numbers work out.

2211 SW Roma Way 12/05 329K 04/07 280K

15% loss + cost of sale. 4708 47 Way 09/05 192,500 04/07 175K

10% loss + costs to sell 4171 San Marino Blvd 07/05 155,900 04/07 122K

22% loss + cost of sale 6136 SugarLoaf Lane 05/06 278K 03/07 250K

11% loss + cost of sale 619 Minnesota St 02/05 189,900 03/07 164K

14% loss + cost of sale 10862 Northgreen Dr

07/05 725K

04/07 585K

20% loss + cost of sale 162 Spyglass Lane

11/03 4,299,000

04/07 3,625,000

Don’t apply, upper market 16334 Port Dickinson

10/01 1,300,000

04/07 1,150,000

Don’t apply, upper market 7836 Cloverfield

11/05 335K

04/07 310K

8% loss + cost of sale 9328 Grand Estates

08/05 2,150,000

03/07 1,850,000

don’t apply, upper market 108 Lakesshore Dr

04/06 500K

04/07 482K

15% loss + cost of sale 2018 Graden Dr

12/06 497,500

03/07 471,500

6% loss + cost of sale. 185 Via Condado Way

09/05 630K

04/07 471K

26% loss + cost of sale - Ouch! 2606 Irma Lake Dr

06/05 418,200

04/07 400K

5% loss + cost of sale 13162 Casey Road

10/06 469,750

04/07 400K

15% loss + cost of sale 8412 White Egret

06/05 345K

03/05 290K

16% loss + cost of sale 4126 Bahia Isle

02/05 495K

04/07 490K

2% loss + cost of sale. 9103 Dupont Pl

04/05 401K

04/07 387K

4% loss + cost of sale. This is an average loss of 13% plus the cost to sell the property.

Now if you add up the costs to sell, RE commissions, sellers closing costs, you can add 5-8% to the loss making the average loss in the area of 18%.

Now, for the 100% finance folks and the HELOC babies, that’s a big hit.

Also, it seems to be very consistant with what my friends are being confronted with. It will cost them about $100K to walk away from a $530K home.

If you look at the Median price, it’s only reduced a few points. If you take out the upper markets for which 95% don’t deal with, we are seeing almost 20% loss.

OK cheerleaders, help me out a bit. I’ve been saying for for almost a year now and I’ve been beat up by everyone.

Max, Please do respond, I’d love to read your thoughts on this.

Very good work to the person who did the boring research to yeild the truth.

Max says he talks the truth, but it seems you need to add the negative sign in front of his number to truly be accurate.

By easyasabc

May 15, 2007 3:57 PM | Link to this

Poor Rich R., I am not picking on you….be happy you don’t have drought, bad drivers, water contamination, fires, foreclosures or RCA in your neck of the woods ….I am wondering what Carolina Gal had to do to get her name on a warship…ha ha ha ha….You talk about all hands on deck….she was more busy than a flight deck of an aircraft carrier……I know Rich R. is from Boca Raton, we heard his story before….over, and over, and over….and over ….again………………the question here is…How many new pizza delievey guys in town!……last number I heard of active realtors is 8,000….down from 12,000 a few years ago………….Was the Half-backs shaking from “Andrea” ?????….It will be a slow season now……..what is the median price these days here?…….I sure do envy Rich R. on having many great pie shops in his town with all those carolina women holding a pie and visiting their new residents into town and showing off their southern charm……I wonder if they made a movie like that in the Valley?????

Life is good …..in the Valley.

By Rich R

May 15, 2007 4:49 PM | Link to this

Easy, is that true? The number of RE folks is down by 1/3?

Where did you find that?

btw, i did live in boca for a while back in the early ‘90’s. It was a very strange experience.

I lived at SW 18th and Military and had the same neigbours for the two years I lived there. A whole lot of “Wannabe’s”.

I NEVER got to even know the names of the people on either side, They never socialized, ever.

I do know that on occation they would want to run a power cord into my garage. This was because FPL turned their power off due to non-payment.

I guess the Benz and the Jag in the driveway was too much for them. i think their kids ate hotdogs and Kraft Mac and Cheese for dinner every night.

Very strange, but that’s just Boca.

I moved to NPB after that, and had GREAT people next to me there.

By Mike Fink

May 15, 2007 5:53 PM | Link to this

First off, welcome back Rich. You made your presence felt in the past few days; I thought it was just me VS the RE establishment there for awhile! :)

Also, just an observation (for those who read several blogs). PB Post is the only blog with the Easy/Maxes left. All the other blogs are 95% resigned to the RE induced depression we are in, and just trying to figure out where the bottom is, and how to correctly price and bid for properties today.

I hate to say welcome back and “your wrong” in the same post… But, obviously you have made an error in your sales data. We all know (from Oracle Max) that it is impossible to lose money in RE (especially not 100’s of K like your data indicates). Also, if you were going to lose money, just rent it!! You can use that money to cover your MTG. You would have to be an idiot to lose 300K on RE in 2 years!

Also, Max tells me that I am playing with other people’s money anyway. So, don’t sell it, just walk away and throw the keys on the table. I am assured by Max that there is no repercussions to such action; and I can then gamble without any fear of loss.

Welcome back Rich.. But try to do a better job with your research in the future.

Prices going down? Ha! Impossible!! Just use the “Mad Max RE system” and rent a 1M dollar home for 2,500 a month!! You will be RICH in no time!

By Curious

May 15, 2007 6:46 PM | Link to this

Mortgage Woes Push Banks to Big Discounts

By JAMES R. HAGERTY, The Wall Street Journal

SAN DIEGO — An auction of nearly 100 foreclosed homes here Saturday showed that mortgage lenders are having to accept huge discounts in some cases to unload such properties.

A surge of foreclosures over the past year or so has left lenders struggling to sell a growing backlog of homes. Rather than relying on real-estate agents, the usual practice, some are turning to large-scale auctions to speed up the sale process.

Real Estate Disposition Corp., the Irvine, Calif., company that organized Saturday’s auction of lender-owned homes, plans similar sales May 19 in Los Angeles and May 20 in Riverside, Calif.

At the San Diego sale, houses and condos typically sold for about 30% below the previous sale or appraisal prices. In a few cases, the discounts were around 50%.

… .

May 14, 2007

Copyright © 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

AND AAWWAAAAAAY WE GO!

:-)

By Curious

May 15, 2007 7:05 PM | Link to this

Weak spring may drive home prices lower Tough sales season, rising inventories further pressure housing market

By John Spence, MarketWatch Last Update: 10:46 AM ET May 14, 2007

BOSTON (MarketWatch) — A spring home-selling season that’s looking like a bust and pressure from growing inventories of houses in the resale market should intensify home-price declines in the second half of 2007, Wall Street analysts say.

“We think the housing downturn has decisively moved to its second act of falling prices,” wrote Deutsche Bank in a report to clients Monday.

Most home builders posted ugly first-quarter results punctuated by red ink and land write-downs. Hopes for a spring rebound have faded, and several companies backed off their 2007 profit outlooks.

Problems in the subprime loan market and the resulting stricter lending standards are impacting the entire housing “food chain,” according to luxury builder Toll Brothers Inc.

… .

This disruption, combined with sagging buyer confidence, “may have served to impede the glimmers of a rebound we had started to see in early February 2007,” said the company’s chief executive, Robert Toll.

Yet the picture could get worse if home-price declines catch up with falling sales, and home builders’ profit margins are further squeezed.

“With the first act consisting of significant retrenchments in volumes, the second act is one with home prices falling back to more equilibrium levels after a period of breathtaking increases during the housing boom,” Deutsche Bank said.

BADDA BOOM!

By Curious

May 15, 2007 7:10 PM | Link to this

‘60 Minutes’ puts Realtors on defensive

Report airs Sunday on alternative sales methods and commissions.

By MICHAEL POLLICK michael.pollick@heraldtribune.com

Using an Internet-based business to slash real estate commissions gets the CBS “60 Minutes” treatment on Sunday, prompting the Sarasota Association of Realtors and its national counterpart to do some advance coaching of their agents.

The local association sent out a set of “talking points” this week that originated at the National Association of Realtors.

“Bottom line is that we don’t expect that the segment will make Realtors happy, but it could have been much, much worse,” the NAR said in the memo. “Be glad that it’s Mother’s Day and the show will probably draw fewer than its average 14 million viewers.” According to the CBS News Web site, the segment — dubbed “6 Percent” — reports on the premise that “Realtors’ sacrosanct commission rate of 6 percent may be in jeopardy due to emerging online competition from Internet real estate sellers and buyers.”

… .

BADDA BING!

By Curious

May 15, 2007 7:20 PM | Link to this

Tug of War: Owners don’t budge as houses sit unsold

By Linda Rawls Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Monday, May 14, 2007

Who’s going to blink first?

The region’s once-sizzling housing market - which for nearly five years lured investors with double-digit gains, easy credit and 40-year-low interest rates - has simmered to a showdown.

Indeed, some market watchers believe home prices are the object of a high-stakes tug of war between home buyers in Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast armed with low interest rates, and home sellers who refuse to budge from boom-time home prices despite rising inventory, surging foreclosures and tightened credit standards.

“Even to this day we still have stubborn sellers who aren’t being realistic,” said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst with Weiss Research in Jupiter. “Some won’t accept that the market has changed, and lower their prices.”

The result has been a painful slowdown with a ripple effect that has even local retailers crying foul as they see their sales dip. As the song says, “Something’s gotta give,” and experts are betting that sellers will blink first.

And when they do, they’ll see a buyer’s market.

AND THE SURPRISE IS?

By Curious

May 15, 2007 7:49 PM | Link to this

As Jack would have said, “Just the facts, maam — just the facts.”

And, to quote from Ray, “Hey baby, wadda I say!”

:-)

By Brumeister

May 15, 2007 8:54 PM | Link to this

YES things are bad, no forget Real Estate…..I mean the 2 cronic misfits from the past fanthom Rich R and Mike rat Fink are back from under there rocks in rare unwanted form.

By Tradition Homeowner

May 15, 2007 9:13 PM | Link to this

Since I closed on my Divosta house up here last year ,theyve discounted the remaining houses by multi thousands to unload and the message from Pulte/Divosta to us loyal customers who if by chance we have to sell right now and are looking at a big loss because we have to compete with them….the message -tough luck sucker but do keep us in mind for your next home purchase because customer service is our main goal.HA HA

By Curious

May 15, 2007 9:40 PM | Link to this

To Tradition Homeowner:

If I may interject a positive note:

I used to be one of Buzz’s subs many years ago. He built a great house back then and the current models by Pulte that I have seen at different developments in the last ten or fifteen years seem to have pretty much carried forward that tradition.

Hopefully you have a very livable house that you enjoy, can easily afford, and plan to keep for the next several years. If so, the current collapse in the housing industry should pass you by without too many negative effects and you will probably be able to sell your house then, should you choose, without losing your shirt. In the mean time, you may want to save your money if you can; the real estate market in two or three years will probably again be a good place to consider additional careful investments. And you will be older and wiser!

Cheers!

By Mike Fink

May 15, 2007 9:44 PM | Link to this

Tradition:

This is an important message for the “flippers” to realize. In this market, you are competing with the Divosta’s, WCI, Toll, etc; they are your competition for sales. If you think that you can discount like them (even the great Max, with his no fail RE plan) you are horribly mistaken.

The builders will lead the charge to the bottom. Builders are like sharks, they must move to survive. They have to sell the inventory, and they have an amazing amount of room to negotiate prices. If anyone believes that it really costs 2-3X to build today as compared to 2000, I have a bridge to sell you.

All of the builders are doing this; and it seems to happen more as they get to towards the end of the communitity (they don’t want to set low comps whlie they are actively selling). However, I have seem some huge deals in the past 6 months, some at 1/2 the cost the guy across the street paid.

This will be a trend in RE for the next several years; a game the flippers cannot hope to win. This trend, coupled with the increasing number of foreclosures will serve to push the market down over time; but remember, it’s RE, it takes a LONG TIME to correct! Wait it out, let Max compete with Robert Toll to see who can discount more; it’s not a situation you want to be in.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 15, 2007 10:18 PM | Link to this

B**t Artists:

This is the biggest crock of s**t I have ever seen.

Do you want me to debunk these one by one?

Do you want to start with the first few, 55+ communities where the owners went you know where?

How about the first one, a little cottage in Leisureville. Are YOU going to move into a “dwelling” like that? If you are under 55, YOU CAN’T!!! What horsehit this is.

How about Minnesota Street? Would YOU live in a the toughest slum in Lantana? Go see this place — if you have a tank.

How about the higher priced homes? How about Irma Lake Drive?

Believe it or not, another Frediie DeFalco Special. You people really have a talent for spotting dubious examples. So what happened to this house? They had Freddie auction it off “AS IS” so they could get the hell out of there quickly. Why? There is something coming there, and I don’t know what it is, and neither does the new owner. But on the Material Defects Disclosure, for environmental problems/changes threatening to materially reduce the value of the house, the sellers left it meticulously and conspicuously blank, to avoid a subsequent lawsuit.

With ALL THAT, they STILL had an apparent “loss” of only 5%!!! Five per cent!! Big deal!!

IS THIS IT, IMBECILES?

IS THIS ALL YOU’VE GOT?

THIS ABSOLUTE CRAP IS WHAT YOU HAVE BEEN USING TO DENY FAR STATISTICS AND TERRORIZE PEOPLE??

THIS IS WHAT YOU BASE YOUR “30%,” “50%,” “70%” “losses” on?

YOU IDIOTS!!!

As for your “friends,” Rich Ridiculous: if they bought a house they can not afford only a year and a half later, I have to conclude they are as stupid as you.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 15, 2007 10:29 PM | Link to this

Curious is a construction worker@!!

A HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HAH A

No offense, Curious, but no wonder you’re so God damn stupid.

All of your examples, or whosever, were baloney, of course. I debunked a few of them, can debunk the rest of them. Maybe there is a legitimate loss on a desireable property somewhere — but I doubt it. The market takes care of that, and the market is off minimally.

Folks, go see the B******t Artist’s lists of properties that “prove” people are selling at a loss. Then read my comments on how and why they are total crap.

Society is not totally moronic. We have ways of measuring things. We habe mathematics, we have statistics.

Those statistics say our prices are barely off - a few per cent — from a year ago. Those statistics are correct.

By Curious

May 15, 2007 10:47 PM | Link to this

When the mouth opens, the eyes and ears cease to function.

:-)

By Ghost of a Chance

May 16, 2007 2:06 AM | Link to this

When YOUR mouth opens, Curious, it’s because you are smoking dick.

By Very witty Max

May 16, 2007 8:41 AM | Link to this

Your talents are less than impressive, Maxi. And your Minnesota Drive explination is a bit silly, you probably think Jimmy Hoffa is in the foundation.

You can do better than that since Rick/Fink are making you look very foolish.

By To Ghost/Max

May 16, 2007 8:46 AM | Link to this

Ghost of a Chance / Ghost of Max / maxmoose03 why don’t you just be nice?

By Rich R

May 16, 2007 9:00 AM | Link to this

Max,

Your post at 2:06AM was absolutely disgusting.

You are rude, crude and socially unacceptable.

You have now reached a new low.

You should really consider seeking help for your uncontrollable outbursts. it’s not healthy.

I also find it very hard to believe you work in a field were people skills are paramount.

Do you explode like this to your sellers that reject an offer? Do you go balistic on prospects that low ball an offer?

You really need help.

By Rich R

May 16, 2007 9:01 AM | Link to this

One more thought.

Max, you say you are a Realtor.

You are not setting a good example for your industry.

You are just showing all of us how you RE folks twist the truth to achieve your personal agenda.

That’s just wrong. I feel sorry for anyone that falls prey to you.

By To Rich

May 16, 2007 9:09 AM | Link to this

Using Max as an example of people in the r/e profession is the smartest thing you have said on this post.

Let Maxi be a lesson to all of you who are dealing with r/e agents.

By Rich R

May 16, 2007 9:17 AM | Link to this

Max,

My friends have a nice 6 figure combined income. But that is now the MINIMUM needed to survive in the New Florida. They have no problem making the payments on their home.

Due to a job tranfer out of state, they need to sell, and find themselves burried in the home. The $100K+ hit is what they can’t handle.

It was the “So-called” RE Pros that assured them that there were huge gains to come and they could very easily Refi when their ARM was up for adjustment.

It all makes sense to me now Max. If their Realtor was anything like you, I can see how they could have fallen for this crap.

Like the Sands in the Hour Glass, these are the Days of our lives.

By WAKE UP

May 16, 2007 9:34 AM | Link to this

I feel bad for your friends RICH, but the more you describe their situation, the more stupid you make them look. If they didn’t have the money to put down, they shouldn’t have bought. It doesn’t seem like they had any planning whatsoever. Blaming a less than scrupulous RE agent for pressuring them is lame. Are they robots? Do they not have spines or minds to think on their own?

I wish them the best of luck in selling, but please enough of the crocodile tears.

BTW - if they’re doing a corporate relocation, why isn’t the employer helping them out? Very typical for companies to do that.

Also - with a 6 figure income they should have decent enough FICO to refinance at a decent fixed rate - they may take a hit on PMI, but there are other ways around that as well.

By cw1900

May 16, 2007 9:49 AM | Link to this

Wow, you people. The divide is obviously growing wider and wider between the doomers and the non-doomers.

Max, relax. Don’t let the high school kids get to you.

Doomers, read the article I read on Yahoo News about decamillionaires and their habits and eternal optimism. You may learn something

However…..

The only important thing that needs to be discussed right now is what everyone has overlooked.

Callery Groves bid of 10,000 new homes has failed. That’s a good thing, you people, for now.

However, the big story is not the yes or no vote at the County Criminal errrr County Commission meeting yesterday, but the little overlooked fact that an FBI agent was sitting in the back staring at the criminals errrrr commissioners and writing ever so diligently on his pad of paper, taking pages of notes.

“Commissioner Warren Newell, who has retained a criminal defense attorney while his role in two land deals is under federal investigation, said he noticed Sconzo after Commissioner Jeff Koons pointed him out from the dais.”

“Newell and others voiced puzzlement at Sconzo’s presence. (BuIIshit)

“Like everybody else, I’d like to know,” said County Administrator Bob Weisman. “I don’t have a clue.” (BuIIshit…)

Commissioner Mary McCarty described herself as “curious.” (No, she’s scared)

I can tell them why he is there if they would like an explanation. It is simple. You, County Commissioners, have, at the very least, the “appearance of impropriety on occassion”.

Isn’t that the nice way to say, You suck.

cw

By Rich R

May 16, 2007 9:50 AM | Link to this

i am definately not defending these folks in anyway. I told them it was stupid and they didn’t listen

I was the one shouting from the highest mountain for them not to do this deal.

They had $75K to put down, but decided to do a remodel to add value (funny). They did end up spending about $50K for Granite, Marble and such.

They were convinced that the home would go up, after all the professionals told them so.

They make about $145K, after taxes that turns into, what, $110K, take out $64K to service the home, plus the cars, the kids, etc. Really nothing left at the end of the day.

They have great credit and that’s not the problem, they can refi, but since the appraised value dropped so much, they would have to belly up for $100K just to refi.

They need to move and have to sell because they are being transfered. The company is paying for the relocation, but they are not going to cover a $100K shortfall to cover the mortgage balance.

I find out the parents are going to bail them out. Kinda like and early inheritance.

I only use this family as an example because i am following this very closely. The problem is, this same story is playing out all over the place.

By Rich R

May 16, 2007 9:56 AM | Link to this

CW,

I am with you 100% on the County Comission crap.

If you notice the overall tone of the commissioners, it seems they were a little upset to see the FBI there.

If they had nothing to hide, you would here comments like.

“FBI is welcome at any of our meetings”

Or

“That’s fine that the FBI wants to be here”

But no, you have them hiring Criminal lawyers and such.

That’s the way to lower RE taxes, just clean house on the county level.

Remember folks, you vote for these people.

It all up to you during the next election.

By Rich R

May 16, 2007 10:12 AM | Link to this

Hey Mike Fink,

I remember from the days when our email address were displayed and I visited your family website.

Is the “Finkfest” on for this year?

That looks like the greatest party ever.

Can i attend?

:)

By cw1900

May 16, 2007 10:22 AM | Link to this

Rich R,

I had to chime in again on your friends. I couldn’t pass this up.

You said, “They make about $145K, after taxes that turns into, what, $110K, take out $64K to service the home, plus the cars, the kids, etc. Really nothing left at the end of the day.”

That is a crime. That is typical. That is what I have been saying is a problem for months now, that attitude.

The whole thing, the granite coutertops, the nice income, the car payments, then you say the telling sentence…..”Really nothing left at the end of the day.”

That’s it. Proper planning and living within their means and the problems would have never been there. There is no reason why they are in this mess. The reasons they are in this mess is very simple.

GREED

KEEP UP WITH THE JONES’

THEY SPEND EVERY CENT THEY BRING IN

Rich, I cannot feel sorry for them. They do need serious financial counseling, I was right. I hope some of you people see yourself in that story and do something about it.

I did your numbers and their net monthly income is around $9200. That is ample to pay their PITA, monthly living expenses, etc if they lived on a monthly budget and didn’t spend money frivolously on redoing crap that didn’t need to be redone, when they couldn’t afford it anyway. That is the “gimmees” I used to tell my kids when they were really young, and it is not planning ahead, pure and simple.

They are not living on a monthly budget and they are pi$$ing away every cent.

I could go on and on, but you know the drill.

cw

By maxiasked

May 16, 2007 10:38 AM | Link to this

9656 Cobblestone Creek Drive

12/06 690,900

04/07 580,000

9021 Three Rail Dr.

04/07 1,200,000

02/06 1,872,000

16082 Rosecroft Terr.

06/04 1,255,266

02/07 925,000

Go to PAPA, check SELLER of last two.

Then, on PAPA site, list other properties owned by that seller.

By to maxiasked

May 16, 2007 10:55 AM | Link to this

you idiot.

you have totally discredited yourself.

16082 Rosecroft Terr?

do your homework.

Max, you tell him about 16082 Rosecroft.

I’m laughing too hard to type.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 16, 2007 12:02 PM | Link to this

TO “TO Maxiasked”:

ROFLMAO

Oh my Lord, this is funny. These imbeciles like Maxiasked have absolutely no idea of what they are looking at. This is truly a classic.

I wish the folks following at home could understand this, and see ONCE AND FOR ALL, that “Prices,” “Curious,” “Rich R. and the whole bunch of them who claim they have evidence of houses losing money, are total idiots — blithering idiots who have no idea of what they are looking at.

In this case what “Maxiasked” is calling a loss, is the absolutely normal process of a builder buy a tract of land (in this case 9 lots), subdividing the tract (they were alredy parcels), building a house on each one, and making an ENORMOUS profit on every one of them.

Thus, Maxiasked was able to turn a profit of 2 or 3 million dollars into a 330K loss by not being being able to read a deed.

Folks, THIS SHOULD PROVE ONCE AND FOR ALL, THAT MAXIASKED, PRICES AND THE REST OF THEM ARE FOOLS, AND HAVE NO — REPEAT NO EVIDENCE OF HOUSES FALLING IN VALUE.

“TO Maxiasked” — Thank you for pointing me to this one, I would have ignored it, and thanks for being so up on the land deals.

By Rich R

May 16, 2007 12:03 PM | Link to this

CW,

Once again I totally agree with you. 100%.

I’ve read your posts and agree the keeping up with the jones is just insane.

Once again, i am in no way defending these people, just using this one family as an example as I am close to the story.

As they live close to the water, their Home Owners is almost 8,000. Taxes 10,000. That’s $18K per year before you touch the Principle and Interest.

I’m sure they do enjoy a nice Tax benefit from the interest deduction.

Either way, my point is simply this.

There are way too many folks out there living well beyond their means and fall into this situation. Combine this with the HELOC’s, Credit Card debt and such, it just spells disaster.

The unfortuate things is the more people that fall into this catagory will perpetuate the further deteriation of the residential RE market in SoFla as these folks are flushed out.

People need to plan for a rainy day (no pun intended, I really hope you guys get allot of rain, and very soon.)

People living paycheck to paycheck in nuts, yet people do it all day, everyday.

I sometimes feel like just slapping some sense into them.

But in the world of Max, all is fine and he can sell these homes for more then they are worth. Not realistic.

By Rich R

May 16, 2007 12:03 PM | Link to this

CW,

Once again I totally agree with you. 100%.

I’ve read your posts and agree the keeping up with the jones is just insane.

Once again, i am in no way defending these people, just using this one family as an example as I am close to the story.

As they live close to the water, their Home Owners is almost 8,000. Taxes 10,000. That’s $18K per year before you touch the Principle and Interest.

I’m sure they do enjoy a nice Tax benefit from the interest deduction.

Either way, my point is simply this.

There are way too many folks out there living well beyond their means and fall into this situation. Combine this with the HELOC’s, Credit Card debt and such, it just spells disaster.

The unfortuate things is the more people that fall into this catagory will perpetuate the further deteriation of the residential RE market in SoFla as these folks are flushed out.

People need to plan for a rainy day (no pun intended, I really hope you guys get allot of rain, and very soon.)

People living paycheck to paycheck in nuts, yet people do it all day, everyday.

I sometimes feel like just slapping some sense into them.

But in the world of Max, all is fine and he can sell these homes for more then they are worth. Not realistic.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 16, 2007 12:09 PM | Link to this

CW - I am with you in your analysis of Rich’s friends’ problem.. We have people walking around begging for work to do for food, and these people can’t manage one little house on 145K a year???

145,000 Dollars???

They have a much bigger problem than the real estate market, and bigger than the imported cars or other impractical vehicles I am sure I would find in their driveway.

They didn’t know there could be a job transer? this came out of the blue?

And where are they transferring to? Where do they think they can go, have access to a job hub, and pay LESS for a house and LESS for property taxes?

And Rich R. - and I say this without prejudice toward you — if you KNEW what they were doing was stupid, and counseled them so, how can you possibly find an argument against the real estate market in their story?

I’m sorry, I am the first one to note the effects of inflation on peoples’ lives, but a couple who can’t make it in 2007 in PBC on 145 THOUSAND dollars has some serious problems with their budgeting skills and their maturity.

PS: I still can’t figure out how Rich thinks I am resposible for his friends’ stupidity!!!!

By cw1900

May 16, 2007 12:17 PM | Link to this

Rich R,

Thi is in no way to degrade you. You were on the money in telling them to say no every step of the way, yet they continued on with their greedy tunnel vision, but I just read the end of your post and couldn’t believe what else you said. What’s worse is they weren’t ashamed to tell you this. This is a so-called professional careered family bringing in $145k and they have to borrow from mommy and daddy.

These are supposedly middle aged, professionals, educated, yet are so clueless about personal finance that they have to run to mommy and daddy.

Some of you people have called me cheap, a tightwad, and have laughed at me for living within my means. That story about Rich R’s friends cements why I do what I do. It is exactly why my networth is probably double, triple, what others who make twice what I make.

They have been so irresponsible with their finances, that this is how far they have fallen.

You people, who I reference earlier who may be looking at themselves reading about Rich’s friends, this could be a wake up call to you.

That is what rock bottom looks like in suburbia. What kind of a lesson are they teaching their kids?

I did read once not too long ago that almost 70% of households over the age of 44 in the US if given the demand to come up with $600 cash by the next morning, could not do that. I will never forget that.

You people, I know this has nothing to do with real estate, but if you cannot see Rich’s friends as a poster child for financial irresponsibility, then you are lost and cannot be helped.

Very sad.

cw

By Ghost of a Chance

May 16, 2007 12:17 PM | Link to this

BTW Rich — Sorry to say this, buit it seems you can not open your mouth without something deceptive coming out of it.

When you say “It will cost them 100K to walk away from the house,” that includes 75K of remodeling that NO ONE asked them to do.

Come on Dickie, admit it.

Your friends’ problems have little or nothing to do with the real estate market.

By ToGhost

May 16, 2007 12:25 PM | Link to this

Evidently you missed main point.

Check stock price of Tousa Homes (NYSE:TOA) over past few years.

Check number of homes owned by Tousa and subsidiaries in Florida.(not just PBC)

Check deals being made to dump said homes.

Try selling your own (or others) home in competition with these over next few years.

http://money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?symb=TOA&time=5yr&close_date=08/01/05

Just snapshot of boom/bust. Other builders in same boat.

Will try being more specific for you in future.

By TO Ghost of a Chance

May 16, 2007 12:27 PM | Link to this

You’re welcome. Look further into the examples and you will laugh even harder.

Can you say DOLT?

By toGhost

May 16, 2007 12:31 PM | Link to this

Evidently you missed main point.

Check stock price of Tousa Homes (NYSE:TOA) over past few years.

Check number of homes owned by Tousa and subsidiaries in Florida.(not just PBC)

Check deals being made to dump said homes.

Try selling your own (or others) home in competition with these over next few years.

http://money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?symb=TOA&time=5yr&close_date=08/01/05

Just snapshot of boom/bust. Other builders in same boat.

Will try being more specific for you in future.

By 9021 THREE RAIL DR

May 16, 2007 12:41 PM | Link to this

Some of you out there are making complete fools of yourselves.

Max, I just double checked 9021 THREE RAIL DR.

It’s even funnier.

Can you imagine maxiasked at his place of employment?

Do you think his coworkers talk behind his back?

I think I just wet my pants laughing again.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 16, 2007 12:47 PM | Link to this

More specific?

How about you just admit that you took a parcel which was turned into a profit, and presented it in a way that makes a dunderhead like…well, you know who…think it’s a loss?

This has absolutely nothing to do with the stock performance of Tousa homes.

This has to do with people LYING and MISREPRESENTING to make people think the prices on specific homes dropped.

I am not interested in your predictions for the future. I am talking about reality.

You are trying to make big profits look like big losses for specific homeowners.

Shame on you!!!

By to9021 THREE RAIL DR

May 16, 2007 12:54 PM | Link to this

Evidently you also missed refr. to these as TOUSA props. etc.

see below, then change your pants. :

Evidently you missed main point.

Check stock price of Tousa Homes (NYSE:TOA) over past few years.

Check number of homes owned by Tousa and subsidiaries in Florida.(not just PBC)

Check deals being made to dump said homes.

Try selling your own (or others) home in competition with these over next few years.

http://money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?symb=TOA&time=5yr&close_date=08/01/05

Just snapshot of boom/bust. Other builders in same boat.

Will try being more specific for you in future.

By Max is right

May 16, 2007 12:58 PM | Link to this

Say what you will about Max and his potty mouth, but he is so correct on this misrepresentation.

Those involved in trying to deceive should be called out for what they are, or if they actually thought they were showing real apples to apples losses, then the old saying “a little knowledge is a dangerous thing” applies in this situation.

Either way, and they have been completely discredited and should be ashamed of themselves for trying to deceive people reading this blog.

By maxismanythings

May 16, 2007 1:10 PM | Link to this

The post I read said go to Papa and check owners of two of the three props listed.

The builder listed is the same. the link to stock price is very illustrative of what happened over last two years.

I do not see in original post any ref to loss/gain, just numbers on this sites page and referal to PAPA site for more info.

maxi is gettin a whupin in my view.

By track covering

May 16, 2007 1:11 PM | Link to this

maxiasked is evidently trying to save his reputation and quoting stock price.

the fact is he put those prices live on this blog and implied to all that he were to look at the buy and the sell, look at the price bought compared to the price sold, and then find out it was a builder, and then try to sell us on the fact the new owner is selling lower.

to all who are reading this:

maxiasked never implied to look at stock price, otherwise he would have said it.

he is a liar.

maxiasked is trying to CYA as fast as he can.

he is a DOLT.

By origpost

May 16, 2007 1:26 PM | Link to this

Below is full ,original post showing readers were referred to PAPA to check same owner and see other props owned by that owner (TOUSA HOMES). That was point of referral to PAPA .

It points out that builders are dumping.

Maxi now getting desperate.

By maxiasked

May 16, 2007 10:38 AM | Link to this

9656 Cobblestone Creek Drive

12/06 690,900

04/07 580,000

9021 Three Rail Dr.

04/07 1,200,000

02/06 1,872,000

16082 Rosecroft Terr.

06/04 1,255,266

02/07 925,000

Go to PAPA, check SELLER of last two.

Then, on PAPA site, list other properties owned by that seller.

By To maxiasked

May 16, 2007 1:27 PM | Link to this

Let me tell you this one more time. This is directed to maxiasked.

You are playing with people who are in a league well above you. There are people here who are marked by unusual and impressive intellectual acuteness. They can and will run circles around you.

You are not equipped to handle it. Playing with half a hand does not help.

I would advise you to come back when you have an ironclad, watertight argument. You have proven, so far, that you cannot construct a concrete case.

Until you can, you will dig yourself deeper and deeper.

By TO "origpost"

May 16, 2007 1:39 PM | Link to this

You have no idea what you are missing, do you?

The post about a little knowledge is a very dangerous thing is on the money.

I can see it, and I am no real estate professional.

By Rich R

May 16, 2007 1:42 PM | Link to this

With respect to the obvious competition on this blog between the Realist’s and the Cheerleaders, it’s fruitless.

If ANYONE out there don’t take the time to perform their own research, or not take the time to get educated in RE prior to engaging, you deserve what you get.

Take a read back and judge for yourself.

I will say that Max has been kind enough to display to the world how unsavory the RE folks can be in their pusuit to mislead you and get your money.

DO YOUr OWN RESEARCH AND TRUST NOBODY. It really is that simple.

CW is correct in most all of his posts.

People living beyond their means and keeping up with the Jone’s are flirting with disaster.

The problem is, not that CW is right, he is. It’s the sheer number of families that choose the live this way.

Good post CW, if everyone thought like you, the downturn in the RE market wouldn’t have an impact at all. Unfortunately, there are many, many families that will feel the pain as this market adjustment really get’s going.

The clock is ticking for the many flippers stuck with empty homes.

24,000 home in current inventory and less then 800 sold last month. WOW

By builderswoes

May 16, 2007 2:37 PM | Link to this

Tousa homes stock brought this back to subject of original article.

Stock in article, PHM, chart looks much like that of Tousa Homes and also shows graphically what a mess builders are in.

http://money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=08%2F01%2F2005&mode=add&symb=PHM

By Curious

May 16, 2007 2:53 PM | Link to this

Most U.S. Stocks Fall on Home Depot Earnings, Housing Concern

By Eric Martin

May 15 (Bloomberg) — Most U.S. stocks fell a second day after Home Depot Inc.’s profit dropped more than forecast, housing prices tumbled and foreclosures rose, heightening concern the real-estate slump may worsen.

Home Depot, the world’s biggest home-improvement retailer, and Apple Inc., the maker of the iPod music player, led the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its third decline in four days. ….

Almost two stocks retreated for every one that advanced on the New York Stock Exchange. Data showing first-quarter housing prices sank to a two-year low and confidence among builders unexpectedly weakened overshadowed the government’s consumer price report that indicated inflation is abating. ….

Signs of the slumping U.S. housing market abound. The median price for houses and condominiums slid 1.8 percent to $212,300 in the first three months of this year, the lowest since the first quarter of 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors. Declines were recorded in almost half of U.S. cities.

Foreclosure filings rose 62 percent in April from a year earlier and the number of households falling behind on mortgages probably will climb this year as home prices drop and lending standards are tightened, RealtyTrac Inc. said.

Separately, confidence among builders unexpectedly fell to the lowest in eight months amid a wave of mortgage defaults. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of sentiment slid to 30 this month from 33 in April.

….

By MAX MY HERO

May 16, 2007 3:00 PM | Link to this

Dear MAX you seem like a smart real estate man.In 2005 I had my 2000 sq” duplex up for sale for $370.000 It is on a third of a ac fully renovated new roof paint granite kitchen the works.the property was just zoned MR5 the zip code is 33406.What could it sell for today.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 16, 2007 3:12 PM | Link to this

TO ALL THE PRICE LIARS:

This is your excuse? That you are really intereated in a stock rather than house prcies?

This is your excuse for knowingly lying, knowingly using a trick to make big profits on subdividing look like losses on the sale of a house?

This is your excuse for scaring people into dumping their houses, that a stock went down?

HOW DARE YOU!!!

You are worse than thieves. And if you are not “Prices” you are worse than him — because he is a hapless boob who does not know he is comparing apples with oranges.

BUT YOU KNOW BETTER!

You intentionally filled this column with lies designed to trick people looking at PAPA and not understanding the difference between the builder’s tract and the houses that came from it.

Free speech or not, you all should be in JAIL for the harm you may have caused people.

And all this from your PREDICTION that prices will fall, based on a STOCK CHART?

I don’t know what you need worse, a psychiatrist, a clergyman, or a judge. You certainly derserve more of a “potty mouth” from me now, but words fail me.

I hope everyone who reads this understands what you did, how you lied and misrepresented house prices to make them look like they fell, and that your excuse is you didn’t like ther performance of the builder’s stock.

By Curious

May 16, 2007 3:27 PM | Link to this

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.”

Upton Sinclair

By Rich R

May 16, 2007 3:49 PM | Link to this

Ya know Curious, you may very well be on to something.

Max and his RE buddies thrive on the simple fact that most people don’t understand RE transactions.

If more people did, they’d quickly realize that paying 6% of $500K or $30,000 commission to show a home a few times and run some paper is a suckers play.

If more folks were like me and NEVER use RE agents, he would just fade away.

I never did understand why the commission was a percentage. I think it should be a flat rate of about $5K and no more.

I used to get a real kick out of the RE agents that would bombard me when I put my FSBO sign out and run ads in the newspapers.

They would promise me the moon, and I would always come back with the same offer.

I will give you and exclusive listing, you bring me a buyer, i’ll pay you 2%. NO MLS. I refuse to give a listing for some lazy schmo to just put it into MLS and wait for some other agent to do the work so they could just ride on for the comission. That sickens me, but it’s the way most agents work.

Needless to say, none of the agents would take me up on the offer.

All of them wanted an exclusive listing for long periods. If I found my own buyer, they expected to be paid. That’s just broken and very funny to me.

I think the whole industry is flawed, but then again, I can handle my own RE transactions with the very inexpensive help from my attorney and the Title Company.

I think the total cost to sell my homes was less then 1/2 of one percent. Typically $500 for the lawyer, 300-500 for the Title Company and then whatever the Title policy would cost.

Much better to put the $28,000 in my pocket on the sale of a $500K home

What’s funny is that there are allot of people out there that think you HAVE TO use an RE agency. Just insane.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 16, 2007 4:06 PM | Link to this

….or when he is a construction worker, Curious.

Are you part of that pack of liars who intentionally put up the phony price drops? It wouldn’t surprise me.

And while we are at it:

a. If you want to know something about Home Depot, ask me, not Mr. Martin. I have done business directly with members of the one of the founding families, your reporter has not.

I don’t care about the U.S. housing market, I own property in Palm Beach County, where prices are minimally lower than last year, and higher than last September.

Similarly, foreclosures are flat — no increase at all YOY — in Palm Beach County. Again your national articles have no relevance here.

Curiously unrefreshing — but stupid.

+++++++++++++++++++

Hero-seeker:

How much is the net operating income on your duplex, and what cap rate would you be willing to accept?

Income analysis is one approach to finding value, another is comparing it to closed sales of similar duplexes (comparative maket analysis).

Need some numbers, kiddo. Do you know how much net operating income is?

By Curious

May 16, 2007 4:20 PM | Link to this

SAD AD:

“$399,000 Selling For What We Owe Bank!!!! 4, 2.5, 2 in gated community.”

“Asking $399K which is what we owe to bank. No profit being made. Great Deal!!!!!!!!!!”

In other words, taken at their word these poor people are looking for a buyer who has an income of approximately $130,000 and who wants to buy one of those standard issue, cookie-cutter, two-story boxes on a small dry lot.

Sad thing is that there are hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of similar properties on the market trying to attract that same buyer — in an area where the median income is approximately one-third of the amount needed to legitimately service such a loan.

Yep, gonna be an interesting couple of years.

By HERO SEEKER

May 16, 2007 4:38 PM | Link to this

The duplex brings in$2100 per month.There are no comps since it is surrounded by comercisl props.The rent has not been increased in 2 years.

By Rich R

May 16, 2007 4:57 PM | Link to this

Max,

Why are you calling everyone on here a liar?

The facts speak for them self.

Anyone can jump onto PAPA and see that.

You can only spin this so much.

You are making yourself look like the fool I know you are.

You say the following:

“Similarly, foreclosures are flat — no increase at all YOY — in Palm Beach County. Again your national articles have no relevance here.”

Yet if you take a look at WPEC’s website, they have streaming video today saying it’s up 90% from last year.

I guess Channel 12 are liars too. Is everyone that disagrees with you a liar?

You really need help.

Have another drink.

By 9656Cobblestone

May 16, 2007 5:01 PM | Link to this

This is nice area. Was any good reason given why this sold for 580K last month after it sold for 690,900 in dec 2006 ?

maybe I missed dissection of this one in all the hullabaloo about tousa homes getting dumped as stock price tanks.

580K seems like getting reasonable in that area if legit.

By WAKE UP

May 16, 2007 5:06 PM | Link to this

Interesting how certain folks like to pull up the properties in new developments and make them look like losers, but they don’t want to talk about the re-sales that have increased 30-40%. This is why PAPA is a dangerous thing. Don’t focus on what you THINK somebody paid based on PAPA information, just worry about a fair market price is for the property. People look at the PAPA clsoing prices on new properties and think that they should pay the same or less than what the original owner paid. Keep in mind that some of the origianl owners paid ‘02 & ‘03 prices for that property, not ‘05 or ‘06. Prices are off from ‘05, but they’re not down to ‘02, ‘03 levels, and they’re certainly not below ‘02, ‘03. Good luck buyers.

By to curious

May 16, 2007 5:09 PM | Link to this

dow up 103 nobody cares ab out your cut and paste articles

By easyasabc

May 16, 2007 5:20 PM | Link to this

So what is everyone after ? A certain neighborhood to live in ? A certain house/condo ? A certain style ? Or the very lowest price, no matter where it is located ? Are you ready to buy yourself to live there or flip it ?????…….it use to be that when one bought a home, it was for their family………now when one buys, it is for a quick turn-around get rich deal !

You guys can type off thousands of addresses and prices associated with who bought for how much and what the price is today…..so what ! ….Flippers lost out…..many of them could afford it….they are doctors, lawyers and brokers…..they have cash coming in…….most people who will buy here in the future, will be buying based on location…… an additional 400,000 people in Broward by 2020….will they mostly be buyers, renters or refugees ?????….no one really knows……how many of you forcasted this -6% median price slump two years ago ?????…I don’t really see many great forecasters here……..I know we had people talking 50-70% price reduction here last November….it never happen……and they still are renting and hoping for 1976 median price levels…..anyway, I always said to stay away homes that are owned by flippers.

Yesterday, CNN had a woman from NRA telling that the worst is behind us….look up the story and read it…..we are at the bottom of the rollercoaster ride….

BTW, building permits is down 18%…..most for residential building….which is good for existing home owners……most of the construction workers role over to commericial or civil projects……don’t laugh at construction workers…they make $25 and up running those machines……those houses that were built up in Martin Lucie county, were built by illegals….and county inspectors getting paid off to look the other way for shaddy work…..believe me, I know ! ….and people want to know why their new houses have so many problems……

If the FBI are in town….then GOOD !….Many of us are tired to see crooked politicians getting rich and let the taxpayers pick the bill and clean up the mess later on……..

I missed this one, Trump will relocate his flag and pay no fines….he will donate money to charity……it seems people in charge, think they can push people around, and will win…….just alot of bad P.R. to Palm Beach…..I see alot more bad P.R. coming in the future for others…..

The numbers of less realtors (-4000) is from the local board of realtors in Palm Beach county……here is something many may not know…..the renewal real estate fee was reduce to $5 !….it seems many realtors could not afford the old fee which was around $65…….how much is the real estate fee in North Carolina ???????…..you either can sell or not here if you are a realtor……one realtor I know, his office is not taking listings anymore …..most sellers want more for their house or refusing to be the lowest price in that neighborhood…….it seems most people will wait it out until prices come back up………

Stocks are way too high…..I see a big bounce in the near future……

No home sales = no realtors commissions = no new big appliance orders = no relocation jobs for movers = no work for home renovations = no sales at Home Depot = layoffs

A new storm is brewing in the Atlantic …watch out Carolinas !!!!!

People who say stuff at 2am…..they are up late for a reason…..it comes to one word…..PANIC.

easyasabc

By HERO SEEKER

May 16, 2007 5:36 PM | Link to this

I thought with all the pro’s on this blog someone could help me.Nikki

By Curious

May 16, 2007 5:51 PM | Link to this

To Rich R:

“You can’t reason someone out of a position they didn’t reason themselves into.”

Cheers!

:-)

By To: to curious

May 16, 2007 6:15 PM | Link to this

Check out the dow’s volume. Its a sucker’s bet, and watch out for the correction.

By Quarterly Numbers

May 16, 2007 6:27 PM | Link to this

Didn’t anybody notice the qurterly numbers from FAR today. Things aren’t looking so good for PB County, down 4%.

MAXI: Are those !@#$%^&* at the FAR lying too?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

By Signed

May 16, 2007 6:36 PM | Link to this

“I built a solid wall of scotch between me and the bugs. If a mosquito bit me, he’d fall over dead drunk.”

Signed,

maxiasked

in his dreams, telling us how the big bad Max is dead, and oh so hoping that one day he could be right, could make a good argument, and maybe, just maybe, he could hit it big, you know, real big, so he can put up a new post and tell us all….

“The only reason to have money is to tell any SOB in the world to go to hell.”

By Signed

May 16, 2007 6:43 PM | Link to this

“If he ever makes it big, will his last words be, “I never should have switched from Scotch to martinis.”

Signed,

Curious (the only man maxiasked ever loved)

By BIG ROB

May 16, 2007 7:06 PM | Link to this

Hero seeker I am not as educated like some of these bigshot RE agents. If the prices have gone down %20 from the peak I would guess the asking price is now $296.000

By BIG ROB

May 16, 2007 7:26 PM | Link to this

Max where are you today.I dont beleve im giving advice to a seller thats your job.I figured I would try to help.You are like the ending of the movie SMOKIN ACES.

By minnesota

May 16, 2007 8:12 PM | Link to this

re that minnesota street house that sold for $164k in march. i saw that post this morning and drive by that area every day. i drove by it today.

it is a dump. it looks like someone is rehabbing it as there are paint cans and things that look like work is being done on the inside. tiny lot. backs up to commercial building.

the yard is a mess with junk around and plenty of junk in many neighbor’s yards, etc.

i’ll bet the buyer is one of those rehabbers who bought it on the cheap, actually not cheap enough. to make that game work, one would need to buy at least 30% under market and that did not happen. if he did truly buy 30% under market in march 2007, and he is a pro who bought it, and he knows what he is doing, then the current market value of that house right now is $234k and that is higher than the 2005 price, buy anyway…

the way the taxes have been, clearly not homesteaded in the past few years.

the buyers in 2005 were two single people with different last names and appear to be male and female, so who knows what happened here, but from the looks of the property, nothing positive.

the seller in 2005 is a company on pb lakes blvd, probably a rehab company like those we buy ugly houses companies.

anyway, just my two cents. it appears to not be a typical buy and sell.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 16, 2007 9:34 PM | Link to this

The novia and I just got back from the casinos, and there is an avalanche of activity on the blog.

I can’t answer everybody at once who addressed a comment to me, but I will try to get to a bunch of them.

First, since people like Rich R. clearly do not understand the trick the price liars used, let me try once more to explain it (I should say this was ONE of their tricks).

When a builder builds houses, he buys a tract of land. He then subdivides that into lots and builds houses on them. Eventually they get sold. If you look in PAPA for one of those houses, you will usually see 2 sales. The first one is for the entire tract, and is typically over a million dollars. The second one is for the real first sale of the house, and is of course lower than the price of the entire tract that it came from.

The price liars typed the sale price of the tract to make it look like a prior sale, then typed the sale price of the house to make it look like a resale. SO, knowing only these two numbers you think the house sold at a loss. But it was really (in this case) 9 houses, all selling new, at huge profits. The same tract appeared as the prior sale in every one of the nine resulting addresses. If you are Rich R., you are too stupid to understand this.

The bottom line is, most of the price drops they reported here are absolutley, 100% false. I dealt with some others yesterday that are ridiculous because they resulted from deaths or intstitutionalization of elderly owners in strictly 55+ communities, or that were located in hard-core slums.

At first I thought the trick may have just been the result of dummies like “Prices” copying verbatim from web sites that blindly went through PAPA and reported price differentials, with no intelligence applied. However, the culprits admitted they knew the price differences were frauds as I just described, and justified lying based on their predictions, which were in turn based on the movement of the builder’s stock on the stock exchange!!!!

++++++++++++++++++

FAR numbers:

March numbers have been out for weeks, so there was nothing new in these “quarterly numbers.” If we are off only about 4% YOY, so much the better - hardly a decline at all.

What was interesting to me is that FAR has been polling real estate economists and other experts, and getting back exactly the same opinion that yours truly has been telling you since he arrived: that house prices are in line with inflation. In other words: no bubble — except that of inflation itself.

++++++++++++++++++

Hero seeker - Did you say you have already rezoned your building to commerical? You need the right kind of tenants in there, paying commercial-type rents, this will get your NOI up, which will get your value up.

Ask a commercial broker in your area how much commercial space is selling for per square foot, in your area. You may be way undervalued at 370K, especially with space for parking on 1/3 acre.

I don’t know how restrictive the MR zoning is, you may be best off with office rentals. I’ll try to look at zip code area later, see if it makes any bells go off for me. Good luck, Nikki.

++++++++++++++++++

Foreclosures: THIS NEWSPAPER reported PBC foreclosures almost flat YOY, today or yesterday. They also report foreclosures DOWN 50% in Martin County. They are up in Port St. Lucie, but not enough, in my opinion.

Here is the link: http://www.palmbeachpost.com/real/content/business/epaper/2007/05/15/0515foreclosures.html

Argue with Linda if you don’t like it.

+++++++++++++++++++ Realtors:

Rich R, I forgot how truly stupid you are. My owning a real estate company does not make me a salesperson, any more than owning a plastics factory makes you a wetback.

I do happen to agree that Realtors are becoming less and less necessary, but the only objection you have to realtors is you still think I am Michael Berry.

SO you can save your breath, you sound stupid enough doing other things like defending the price drops that the authors already admitted were frauds.

By WAKE UP

May 17, 2007 8:19 AM | Link to this

MAX - I’ve always had a feeling you were a gambler…how’s your poker game?

By fink is desperate

May 17, 2007 8:35 AM | Link to this

How many people do we know that posts on different blogs? Fink is on the sunsentinel posting more of his crashing prices theory. What a desperate fellow. It is just a matter of time before he has a nervous breakdown because the world is not falling apart. Fink, have you ever considered taking medication to alleviate your anxiety? You are a complete mess.

By uhoh

May 17, 2007 9:43 AM | Link to this

Looks like maxi’s target d’jour is M. Fink.

Congrats Mike, highest compliment is when desperate maxi lashes out at what he considers a “threat” (truth) to his fantasy world.

By Curious

May 17, 2007 9:52 AM | Link to this

uhoh,

Do you own anything here in the county, or do you rent?

I’m just wondering if there are also owners who feel the threat.

What is your deal? Thanks.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 17, 2007 10:17 AM | Link to this

I made no comment to Fink recently.

BTW, despite disagreeing with him totally, I am one of those who believe Fink is by far the brightest of the Doomers, and that he is basically carying the entire load for their side. In fact, despite the fact that Fink is not above inventing evidence either, and I catch him all the time, they would still be more convincing if they just shut up and let him do the talking.

Having said that, however, I think “fink is desperate” is probably right — I sometimes think Fink shows signs of cracking at the seems, in sheer disbelief and frustration ove all his theories and statistics going for naught, all his economist heroes turning out to be snake oil salesmen.

Well, they say a watched pot never boils, and that may in fact be the reason we DIDN’T have a bigger run-up and then a crash. It’s hard to have meltdown when you have two years of the entire nation watching for it, predicting it, warning about it, being defensive against it. S**t happens - but usually when no one is expecting it.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 17, 2007 10:41 AM | Link to this

WAKE - You have me pegged, all right. Gambler, that’s me. In fact, the novia and I are such high rollers that we had to leave the Seminole last night because we couldn’t find a nickel slot machine. (I hope everyone is having a good laugh at me on this one - I know I am. CW would be proud of me.)

So we will have to stick with Pompano Park, where they built a beautiful new casino called “the Isle.”

Now let me tell you, we had a night of good, clean fun at Pompano. The buffet restaurant is fabulous. About $22 a person plus beverages and tips, but great food. The King crab legs were scary - about 2 feet long, sliced down the middle, I never saw anything like it and they were great.

The casino was fun, we wound up winning back half the cost of dinner anyway in the slots (slow but steady, as CW would say), and for a change of pace we went next door to the track to watch the ponies. It was like stepping from 2007 into 1967, but again, just plain fun on a beautiful night.

They haven’t opened the new Poker rooms yet, which should be pretty plush.

I may have to disappoint you there too, WAKE - haven’t played in about 30 years.

BUT - I am under constant pressure from some lawyer buddies to get my game in gear, so I will have to try.

BTW, if you want to ride down to Hollywood, the Hard Rock is great, with a beautiful casino, lots of live bands and music memorabilia, and an entire village of shops and restaurant, not to mention you can stay in the hotel if you want.

You take a couple of places like this, multiply by 1000, and then you understand the difference between living in South Florida and living in Raleigh, NC.

I’ll try to get that poker game up to snuff, WAKE.

By Rich R

May 17, 2007 10:56 AM | Link to this

Max,

You gamble at casino’s?

That’s just true to form.

And you call all of us stupid. Casino’s, especially the screwing games played at the indians have the odds totally in the house favor.

But I guess you count cards, have a trick for the slots etc.

We all know how “wonderful” you are…. LOL

With every post, you just further illustrate how lost in reality you really are.

It’s always nice to add to the $300,000,000 profit that’s mad at Hard Rock.

By Rich R

May 17, 2007 10:59 AM | Link to this

We do have casino’s in NC Max.

For someone who’s never lived here, you say allot of negative things.

By Rich R

May 17, 2007 11:03 AM | Link to this

Hey Max,

I wanted to let you know that Net Appliances just announced it’s adding 650 jobs to their Raleigh facility with an average pay of $94K per year.

Also, Fidelity Investments is adding 1,200 positions with an average pay of $88K per year.

Since you obviously aren’t selling any RE, perhaps you should apply.

LOL, LOL, LOL

By Ghost of a Chance

May 17, 2007 11:05 AM | Link to this

Rich - You should have read my post to WAKE before opening your stupid mouth.

Thanks for making yourself an idiiot in public yet again.

Don’t you get tired of proving yourself a fool in public every day?

Oh well, a chacun son propre chemin (to each his own).

By Ghost of a Machine

May 17, 2007 11:11 AM | Link to this

Rich, What would I do with an extra 94K a year? Hire another toadie like you?

I could have picked up that much a few weeks ago teaching real estate, instead I chose to give my opinions away.

Your redneck view of the world is really amazing!

And EVERYTHING you say just makes you look sillier and stupider!

By WAKE UP

May 17, 2007 11:25 AM | Link to this

LOL Max - I figured you’d be at Seminole on the high roller tables…actually Seminole is a great place to go for an evening out even if you don’t gamble, nice restaurants and clubs - a little pricey though. I’ve only stopped by The Isle for a few minutes, but it did look nice, very Vegas atmosphere. Personally I can’t stand slots and am a poker nut - fortunately I’m pretty good too…it’s great entertainment and can be quite profitable…

By Rich R

May 17, 2007 11:25 AM | Link to this

I pretty sure you have it backwards Max.

But that’s no shock. It seems you are backwards on most everything.

By Dilemma

May 17, 2007 11:26 AM | Link to this

I have a interesting dilemma. This will be long, but bear with me. It could be a good real estate study.

I have decided to post it here after I read about that Minnesota St house. Mine is not too far from there also in Lantana.

While that house on Minnesota is not in a true slum area as some have said, it is what was described, but no slum or ghetto, if you will. It is an area of mostly blue collar, lower middle class, older homes in Lantana. Nothing fancy, but again, not true slums by any means.

My dilemma.

I have a house that I have owned since July 1990. It is a little 2/1 with a carport that I paid $52,000 for. My wife and I lived in it for two years, and then bought a much larger house in Palm Beach Gardens and have been there ever since and have raised a family.

I have been renting the house out regularly for 15 years. In those 15 years, the house has been without a tenant for a total of 7 calendar months at various stages over the years. Therefore, I have had 7 months where I had to make the PITA payment myself. I have never refinanced the house, it has the same mortgage as it had in 1990, a 30 yr fixed, due to a little laziness and didn’t want to open up a can of worms, which I will get to in a minute. I have a current mortgage balance on the house of about $37,000. Side note, If I had a 15 year fixed, I would would have been mortgage free by now, oh well, live and learn, right?

I have kept for myself two security deposits over the years that I felt I could, and there was no fight in each instance.

I have continued to rent this house out because I could, and if I had tenants paying my PITA, why not? Overall it has worked in my favor.

I put a new roof on the house in 1998 for about $3000. I replaced all the windows and had hurricane shutters put in (mandatory county code) in 2000 for about $2000. Every year, there has seemed to be other general expenses that have come out of my pocket that have averaged not more than $1000 per year, and some years, less, but I’ll go with a grand per year for these general expenses.

When I bought the house, I put 3% down in an FHA loan deal. As I remember, it was around $2000 when it was all said and done to move in. That was my initial investment, that’s all. In those two years that we lived in the house, except for the basic maintenance of living, I painted the house, landscaped a bit, put in carpets, but not all that much due to the fact we were in our 20s and had no money. We bought used appliances. It was cheap living and my wife and I remember those two years as a wonderful time in our lives, newly married, no money, etc. It was before kids, stress, jobs, busy life, most everyone knows what I am talking about. It was a memory I will never forget.

Two questions I have for the experts. Question #1, based on what I told you, was keeping this house over these years a smart investment, or should I have sold it in 1992? If I did sell it back then, I probably would have broken even at best, or maybe even a loss, due to the short amount of time in there and little to no appreciation in only two years time.

Keep in mind, someone else has covered every mortgage payment, taxes, and insurance, minus 7 months, for the past 15 years. On my yearly tax filings, I have taken the depreciation I am entitled to, and I think, tax wise, it has been a benefit to me in keeping the house.

So, let’s jump to the present day. As of this moment, the rent has covered PITA. That will change in a few months. #1, this house is not homesteaded, and the increase in taxes now is higher than I can get in extra rent when the lease is up. I think they would like to stay. #2, I rec’d notice from my insurance company that the coverage I have is too little and it must be upped. I knew this was coming for the past many years. Due to an error on somebody’s part at my mortgage company, nobody knew that when my insurance companies changed a few years ago and I was thrown into a pool, windstorm coverage was never added to my policy, I kid you not, and I just decided to keep my mouth shut and take my chances. I won. No damage ever in the hurricances. For that risk I took, the liability homeowners policy has been under $400 per year. I kept my mouth shut and never told anybody. Well, now the computers at the mortgage company have finally caught up with me. It took 8 years. So, I am anticipating that little $400 yearly policy will now jump to what, anybodys guess, $2000 if I’m lucky.

This is my dilemma. It has cash flowed enough for me all these years to keep it, but now I am anticipating this will be the first lease, should I accept to take it, that I will not be able cover PITA with the rent rec’d. It won’t be much, my guess is about $125 per month negative cash flow. I know that does not sound like alot, but when for 15 years, it was positive, now I must re-evaluate.

That brings Question #2. I have been thinking about selling, and maybe should have when I had the chance, and I did in 2005, and decided no, I would continue to rent it. Oh well, a little greed perhaps, but nonetheless, this is where I sit. In 2005, I know I could have sold the house for $210,000, which was way overvalued, and it needed work. Today, it is in better shape, cosmetically, but it is a bad time to sell, I am fully aware of that. However, I do believe, if I decided to sell, and priced it to sell in 3-6 months (just a guess), I think I could get $180,000 with not too much trouble, taking into account the realities of this market. FYI, I don’t believe it was ever worth $210k, but that’s what I could have got in those crazy days of 2005. If I did sell, the house would be empty for awhile also….maybe, if I can’t work out a deal with the tenants.

If I sold, I would take the profit and 1031 it into real estate where my brother lives in Holmes County, FL (panhandle) where I know I could get positive cash flow.

That’s the problem. I’m sorry if this was long, but I think it will bring a good debate from both sides.

Should I sell or keep it as of right now? What would you do? Thank you in advance for your anticipated helpful answers and opinions.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 17, 2007 11:58 AM | Link to this

WAKE - The expensive thing is gambling, if you lose, not the restaurant! Besides, we all have ot eat… +++++++++++++++++

Rich the Redneck:

“bakcward” is exactly the word people here apply to s**t-eating redneck mother f—-rs like you.

“Deliverance” looks like a fairy tale compared to your life!

LOL. What a barnyard animal you are, DICK. +++++++++++++++++++

Dilema — You have done fine, what you should not do is worry about two reasonable alternatives.

If you sell in a slightly down market you will also buy into a slightly down market.

Don’t worry about it. Move your life forward.

By cw1900

May 17, 2007 12:05 PM | Link to this

Wow.

I just read the post from Dilemma, and immediately deleted the post I was about to submit. Wasn’t much today anyway.

Dilemma is better discussion and right up my alley. I need time to digest this, but I can see the fight already. Dilemma, you don’t know what can of worms you really opened up.

I’ll be back.

cw

By monkey see monkey do

May 17, 2007 12:21 PM | Link to this

rich r is following fink to the sunsentinel. rich r is defending his N.C. it looks like even in broward county they feel N.C. is a dump.

By To:Dilemma

May 17, 2007 12:26 PM | Link to this

To:Dilemma

Sell and invest in something more productive as the market may languish for several years.

By 1860 update

May 17, 2007 12:49 PM | Link to this

some sellers getting close to realistic pricing.

This place was on these pages as example of overpricing by some, while others claimed otherwise.

http://standrewscountryclubhomes.com/Listings/ListingDetail.ASPX?LID=22147090#

Current List Price: $385,000 Initial List Price: $449,000 (16.6% Reduction)

10/28/06 - Price Reduced to $439,000 12/08/06 - Price Reduced to $424,900 12/09/06 - Price Reduced to $419,900 01/30/07 - Price Reduced to $399,900 05/17/07 - Price Reduced to $385,000

1st listing was actually 465K, they dropped at intervals before relisting at 449K

By To: Dilemma

May 17, 2007 12:52 PM | Link to this

You’re not the only one with this problem. I too have multiple homes in Palm Beach. I bought them before the boom. Yes, I agree being Non-Homesteaded on those homes is becoming a burden. I have decided to wait and be patient. We will know in the very immediate future whether or not we are going to get any significant tax relief.

Then, I will make my decision. Don’t jump the gun like many renters and non-homeowners would want you to do. It is not as bad as they want it to be. Good luck to both of us.

By Chip Douglas

May 17, 2007 12:58 PM | Link to this

sing to the tune of the old trucker classic “King of the ROad”

“Two years new home vacant……Open house-no one came or went…..Straight faced my broker told me….Can’t lose with real estate…

Bought it so I could sell….broker said I’ll do well….Two years it still sits empty….I’M GOIN BROKE!!”

thank you thank you!

By Ward Cleaver

May 17, 2007 1:21 PM | Link to this

Now boys, I want you to stop arguing with the Maxer. You know good and well that he is delusional and living in his fantasy world. The best way to deal with the mentally ill is to simply speak calmly, and agree with them.

Yes Maxer, you are right. Prices ARE rising as we speak, and houses are selling at record rates and profits! Yes maxer, you are right. It IS still 2005, and will remain that way FOREVER! Sure max, you get $1800 a month for your 1brm rental. You are a smart boy and a good boy maxer. It is GOOD what you have done. Yes it is.

By WAKE UP

May 17, 2007 1:30 PM | Link to this

TO DILEMMA - I’m no expert, but imho, you really won’t lose in either scenario of selling or continuing to rent. If I were in your situation I would probably keep the property, unless I had a rock solid option that would get me back in the positive or get me closer to outight ownership.

You’ve made it past the halfway point with the property, and at some point will actually earn money once the mortgage is paid off. We all know that there are peaks and valleys, but I can’t imagine that the property would not appreciate in the next 12 to 13 years, probably enough to offset the $125 you need to come up with each month for the difference. Besides something will happen with property taxes or this state will have a citizens revolt on it’s hands. Ask your insurance agent for a list of discounts and you can probably shave a little off the homeowners - you may be overcovered - you don’t really need too much on content as most items are not yours.

Just my 2 cents. Good luck either way.

Oh and last thought once it is paid off it may be nice to know that you have that extra couple hundred dollars coming in and an appreciating asset.

By to1860

May 17, 2007 1:33 PM | Link to this

Wasn’t this the place with maxi’s car in driveway on original pics ? No car now and looks like trying new paint scheme. Wish them luck. It really is a tough sell now with Insurance and Taxes on top of regular COL.

On top of that, friend from NY called last night they were watching Lori P. and others on Nightline discussing out of sight Florida RE tax and Ins mess on NATIONAL TV.

Thanks guys for the great PR.

By Beaver Cleaver

May 17, 2007 1:41 PM | Link to this

Gee Wiz Dad,

You told me it’s not good to lie.

But to follow the pack.

Max is Good.

Max is Great.

Max is the master of the universe.

Max is just wonderful.

Max is Bipolar.

Max is scizo.

Max heads up the chapter entitled “Don’t let this happen to you”

Max is just a waste of human flesh.

When did this blog go from being a place to discuss peoples opinons on Real Estate to now being the world as Max sees it?

Max has destroyed this blog and it seems to me that most of the people come here just to see what twisted stuff Max is going to come up with next.

Max, was thinking of listing my home because I’m leaving this hell hole, but after reading the crap you come up with, I’m afraid to even talk to a real estate agent. I think I’ll try to sell it myself. I’m not in a hurry.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 17, 2007 2:31 PM | Link to this

“Max has destroyed this blog and it seems to me that most of the people come here just to see what twisted stuff Max is going to come up with next.”

Actually, Max created this blog when he exposed the liars and challenged you all with ideas that are not the same old crap you hear from vultures and hucksters.

Unfortunately, a handfull of idiots who are so intimidated that they remain anonymous must take their pot shots because they know they can not beat me in open debate, where I talk real-world mathematics and professional experience.

So for the normal folks like WAKE or CW, or almost anybody who is successful now because he owns property, just look past the nonsense.

For the idiots - if you don’t want me to control this blog so thooughly, don’t address anything to me!!!

By Realist

May 17, 2007 2:54 PM | Link to this

1860 background

My first house was in that neighborhood, when that house or similar comp sells around $250,000 then the market will be back in balance.

By Rich R

May 17, 2007 3:08 PM | Link to this

Now, Max actually has a good idea.

I can’t believe I am saying this, but he does.

Since it seems that nobody really likes Max, we can act accordingly.

Just stop posting.

Let Max sit here all by himself and he can just enjoy his fantacy world. Perhaps Jeff should change the name of the blog to something like.

“Great delusions of Max”

It would be hard to do since Max has become a very good source of entertainment.

Waiting for and reading his next mental outbust is better then anything Comedy Central can come up with.

I really just love it. He’s doing nothing more the turning people off the Real Estate Agents.

With him overall demeaner, I doubt he owns anything. If I had to guess, he’s just another starving “AGENT”, not even a Broker, and perhaps not even a Realtor.

People with such poor of character and lack of respect for others normally don’t last long in a field were people skills are so very important.

I feel bad for anyone that has to share air with this social misfit.

By WAKE UP

May 17, 2007 3:24 PM | Link to this

REALIST - you must be off your rocker if you think that house will go for $250k. I stated earlier that I’m no expert, but $250k would represent a home price of about $82/sf. You can’t build a new house for that - PERIOD, much less have a lot to build it on.

Now some of you may say WAKE that’s just not true and you would be wrong. First major rule in sf analyis - include the whole struture. The house has a 3,079 sf footprint. $385k is actually a pretty fair cost, equals about $125/sf including the property, so say the lot is worth $60k, the structure value is right around $106/sf. Still super cheap imho.

So REALIST, I think you need to get real and stop building model airplanes or switch brands of glue, the fumes are obviously way to strong for you to handle.

By WAKE UP

May 17, 2007 3:50 PM | Link to this

Actually I feel inspired - we’re going to build a house. Let’s see to start we need a structre.

Okay - shell concrete block, and foundation = $35/sf, roof = $10/sf, stucco = $10/sf, windows & doors = $5/sf, site preparation & building pad = $5/sf, so far =$65/sf.

AC = $5/sf, Plumbing = $5/sf, Elctric = $5/sf.

Now were at $80/sf

Carpet = $2/sf, tile = $3/sf, paint = $3/sf, kitchen cabinets $6/sf, door trims & baseboards = $1/sf, landscaping = $2/sf, concrete/pavers patio/driveway areas = $3/sf, appliances = $2/sf.

Now were at $102/sf and it’s a vanilla box…oh, and these are the subcontractor numbers, so add 15% profit and 10% for general conditions (that’s the cost of supervision, etc. to build it) - let’s see that would be about $129/sf…do I need to keep going?

Just keep adding money for all the bells and whistles. I know I left out some basics too.

Of cousre these are round numbers, but very close to the numbers I see every day for basic buildings. Reality is that this is what construction costs these days folks and it’s not going away…

By towakeup

May 17, 2007 4:02 PM | Link to this

That house is really very nice, spacious, nice pool, etc.

http://standrewscountryclubhomes.com/Listings/ListingDetail.ASPX?LID=22147090#

It was called good deal at each of the previous prices by some.

It did not sell.

If this is the right price for this property at this time, it will sell.

If not, it will remain sitting.

No formulas, or replacement cost figures matter.

Market decides.

Wish them luck, looks like they have been trying to get out for over a year.

They just missed the mania.

By Wally Cleaver

May 17, 2007 4:02 PM | Link to this

Ahhh…Knock it off Max, you little goof!

By Eddie Haskell

May 17, 2007 4:05 PM | Link to this

Gee Mr. Moose…that sure is a lovely straightjacket you’re wearing!

By WAKE UP

May 17, 2007 4:17 PM | Link to this

Market does decide, but only to a point - after these people sell, they need to buy, so while they will apparently make a tidy profit at an even much lower sales price, they still need to purchase another home and must make as much equity as possible to take with them.

Replacement value is a big factor, if you believe that it’s not than you should check with your insurance broker and your mortgage company and see if they’ll let you insure your house for 1/2 of the replacement value - your agent may not care, but I’m sure the mortgage company will.

Either way I wish all sellers luck. Market is flush with properties that are competitively priced. I’m really looking forward to next month when there should be a new plan for taxes in the works.

By Observer

May 17, 2007 4:36 PM | Link to this

It has come to my attention that we have a bunch of big talkers, with no money to buy.

By Realist

May 17, 2007 4:44 PM | Link to this

WAKE UP

You really don’t get it do you? “Market is flush with properties that are competitively priced”. Now folks what’s wrong with that statement? If they are priced right the market would not be flooded would it? When properties begin to sell again then you will see the right prices. Wake UP, please wake up to the marketplace and how it works. Buy low sell high. There are no shortcuts unless of course you are Maxi and of course you never can lose because he operates outside this universe. Max do you know anything about quantum physics? If you do you will know part of the underlying theory is that there are honest to god parallel universes out there. I think you might be living in one them.

By Realist

May 17, 2007 4:47 PM | Link to this

Observer, It has come to my attention we have a bunch of big talkers, with too much to sell!

By Rich R

May 17, 2007 5:07 PM | Link to this

Realist,

That was great.

Parallel universe.

Just funny!

By WAKE UP

May 17, 2007 5:09 PM | Link to this

The market is flush for several reasons 1)because people are not willing to buy at what they perceive as overpriced housing; 2)because many people can no longer afford housing; 3)insurance is still overpriced; 4)taxes are out of control.

I’ve said this before and maybe this will help you get it REALIST, housing is a commodity, it’s built out of commodities, it’s pricing is extremely vulnerable to fluctuations in commodities.

If I had a big pile of gold that I was trying to sell and so did a 1,000 of my neighbors, I would try to price it so it would sell where I could make the profit I wanted (maximum), but not so high that I sent my potential buyers to my neighbors. But if I didn’t really need to sell, I could advertise my gold at a premium and wait for the right buyer or until supply was smaller. If I was desparate I would sell cheap.

If I had to go buy more gold after I sold mine, then I would need to keep the price high enough so that I could buy the right amount in the future. Now if I’m selling gold and the buyers want silver because they can’t afford gold, then they shouldn’t be looking at my gold (hands off). They should either buy the silver or wait until they can afford someone’s gold (it doesn’t have to be mine).

So there is a supply and demand issue, but there is a replacement factor that must be considered - really how many people are actually selling so they can rent or live in their cars?

I think you have a housing market full of people who would like to sell, but don’t really need to. Yes that may change. Yes there will be some foreclosures. But people really - do you think anyone wants to give their gold away?

By To Realist

May 17, 2007 5:18 PM | Link to this

Would you rather be on the sellers end or the buyers end?

If you are on the sellers end, you are owning and waiting for a buyer. If you are on the buyers end, you are not owning, but renting fom an owner. In the meantime, buyers will gain no ground from renting, and sellers will wait it out on their end to get their price.

Sounds like a stalemate to me. There are many great deals out there in many parts of the county in the last six months. The sad fact is that in the real life, many buyers just don’t have the money to purchase a home here. You need to be realistic in your life, there is a large number of houses with all various prices. If you did not purchase by now with the low mortgage deals being offered, you never will then.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 17, 2007 5:38 PM | Link to this

WAKE, Since you are an expert in commodities, what is the difference between between Rich R. and a pile of cowshit used for manure?

Answer: The cowshit doesn’t say stupid things all day and night.

There are no other major differences.

+++++++++++++++++++ Realist: You want to discuss Quantum Physics with me?

ROFLMAO

OK, Realist, let’s start by discussing the Heisnenberg Uncertainty Principle. How would you personally use the Poission Distribution to determine the rotational direction of a quark?

This should be fun. Realist is lost with mortgage arithemtic, but he wants to argue quantum mechanics.

By HaveCommonSense

May 17, 2007 5:44 PM | Link to this

Stalemate? Realist seems to forget that these owners with the so-called upper hand ALSO have to make THEIR monthly payments to the bank, tax office, and HOA fees if they own a condo. And those payments that the upper hand owners are making now are a heck of a lot more than renters are paying these days. So, your statement holds no water.

UNLESS of course you live in Mr. Moose’s neighborhood, where owners make no payments, and everything is owned free and clear, and the profits keep rolling in from their $1800/month 1brm rentals!

By Curious

May 17, 2007 5:47 PM | Link to this

To Realist,

“ … it has come to my attention we have a bunch of big talkers, with too much to sell!”

Ain’t that the truth!

Nevertheless, gives us something to enjoy when counting our profits from other investments while waiting for the first group of against-the-wall real estate sellers to finally figure it out, bite the bullet, and start the tide rushing out. Low tide is still probably a year or so away according to what I read and hear, which allows time for a realistic seller to still hook a buyer at more than at-the-bottom prices.

But again, my $.02.



By Ghost of a Chance

May 17, 2007 5:59 PM | Link to this

HaveCommonScent, CuriousGeorge -

Unless you live in MY neighborhood?

You can’t AFFORD my neighborhood, and you never will be able to in your lives. If you walk into my neighborhood or building, Security will intercept you.

Curious is a big talker with not enough to buy. At least CommonStench does not suffer from the delusion that he is a buyer.

By John

May 17, 2007 6:24 PM | Link to this

“If you walk into my neighborhood or building, Security will intercept you.”

Building—you live in an apt?

Rent-A-Cops will get you? Whoopdie do….

By Maxi the Quark

May 17, 2007 6:24 PM | Link to this

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

A debonaire, magnanimous, well-built, wealthy REAL ESTATE AGENT talking about quarks!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

You show em Maxi, tell everybody how much $$ you have, and don’t forget the Madoff account…

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

By Ghost of a Chance

May 17, 2007 6:35 PM | Link to this

Mini-HAHAH:

If Realist wants to talk about Quantum Mechanics, who am I to say no?

One thing you should remember, mini-HAHAH, is that even Realist is a humdred times smarter than you, has a thousand times the assets you do, and at least has a life.

You are nobody and nothing.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA

By Curious

May 17, 2007 7:05 PM | Link to this

The McCords are planning to sell their small condominium in Palm Beach Gardens and continue the hunt for an affordable property in Jupiter.

But, they said, now the problem is the Greenwich units are $50,000 more than when they signed their contract.

http://www.tcpalm.com/tcp/localnews/article/0,2545,TCP16736_5538039,00.html

I thought all prices were going down?

What gives?

By cw1900

May 17, 2007 7:14 PM | Link to this

I’m going to defer to Wake Up to fight the doomers, he’s doing a good job. There is a healthy debate today, and a few high school kids driving Max nuts. As I’ve said, you people, the real answer when the smoke clears is probably somewhere in the middle, but in the end, cost to build and scarcity of land will eventually drive the prices, and yes, eventually, that will be up. Today, fight away, we’re still in limbo for awhile.

Wake Up, I just warn you not to get your hopes up on the tax front. I am cynical, yes, but a big enough fix that makes homesteaders, non-homesteaders, snowbirds, move-ups, first time buyers, and the crackpots blaming that it will only hurt the poor, I just think it’s never going to happen. However, I will be happy to mea-culpa and be proven wrong. You are right, if it is fixed properly and as I’ve described, look out. The doomers will be drinking the Kool Aid so fast you’d think it was Jonestown.

Quantum Physics? I will leave that to people who have a clue. I won’t even begin to even ask what, why, anything. Remember, and Chicago Boy will get a kick out this, I went to very wealthy Fairfield County Connecticut public schools and a state university. Plus, my brain is fried for being in Florida for so many years. Even though I was one of them god help me, I was, but that’s what the attitudes I couldn’t wait to leave up north say, so it must be true…

On to Dilemma….

I love this problem. I couldn’t wait until tomorrow morning.

I have the same issues, and don’t think I haven’t thought of moving things around a bit. I have. You know I just bought another lakehouse out of state, and I’ve said I won’t buy anything here right now due to the fact it cannot cash flow positively the way I want it to, no matter what anybody says, so I pass and play with what I have. No jokes here, please….

In theory, Max is exactly right. It seems you win either way, and “don’t sweat the small stuff”, as my grandmother used to say. If the numbers work, and you do a 1031 correctly, there is nothing wrong with moving on and buying up in the panhandle. You have certainly accomplished your goals here with that property. I don’t have time to, but I wish Max will do it, not only for you, but for everyone here, that with the numbers you gave, even my good friends Mike Fink and Rich R will agree that deal has worked out for you for 17YEARS!! Bravo!!

Max, please, run the numbers he gave, when you have a chance. Show the return and the benefit of what a little hard work has brought our friend in PBG. It will drive the high school kids nuts with envy. For Fink’s sake, compare it to the stock market.

Dilemma, one thing you said that I’m sure most here completely missed, except for FL Ren, I, and a few select others. I didn’t miss it, because as I’ve said before, on our first house we ever bought, around that same time, that we still rent out to this day, is that we bought something that our friends made fun of. I’m guessing it was similiar for you, but now, who’s laughing?

I’m showing my wife your blurb about how it was a memory for you, etc, as that is the case with us. We had no kids and we had no money, and those days were a blast. It was a little house, and it was ours, and it was fun. We still talk about it today.

What the people missed is the fact you didn’t go out and buy the unproven, brand new, speculative, luxury condo to impress your friends as many did not too long ago. Didn’t I just write about that this week? Yes, I did. Re-read it, you people, and let it sink in. What was the better buy in 1990 for his situation? It’s obvious. You bought what was practical and what was workable, and what you could afford. You didn’t say you had an adjustable rate, an 80/20, an interest only, a whatever… By god, you un-hip, not keeping up with the Joneser, you took out one of those crazy 30 yr fixed loans only old stodgy fools get into. Didn’t you know that if you had an adjustable rate mortgage, you could have bought a bigger house to impress your friends that talk behind your back? How uncool were you?

My answer to you is a little like Max’s. I would do what is best for your family. I also agree with Wake Up in that if you do decide to keep it, once we get pass our little time here, the small amount you are paying out of pocket is not going to be a factor 13 years from now. Time and certain appreciation that far out will take care of that. I don’t think even Fink believes prices won’t be much higher 13 years from now. However, I know where you are coming from.

If you can handle to carry it for awhile empty, and sell it for what you think it will bring, and those numbers do not seem unreasonable, then have at it. Move on.

If your numbers you gave seemed too unreasonable, I believe the doomers would have bombarded you all day, and quite frankly, I’m surprised they haven’t. They must feel there is nothing to argue, with those numbers you provided. The silence from them is deafening. I detect a bit of jealousy, actually, alot of it.

As for me, I’m doing a little bit of both, keeping what I have here until something materially changes that I do not like (as you are), and I’ve also taken positions in other areas, so that’s why I like either way with you. You have rationally argued both sides to yourself, and we agree with you either way. You are sitting pretty, and either way is going to work for you, I’m certain.

Good luck to you and yours.

cw

By Ghost of a Chance

May 17, 2007 8:46 PM | Link to this

CW! Why are you delegating all your work?

Can’t you see I’m busy modeling quarks mathematically, to debate that brilliant theoretical physicist Realist?

OK, OK, here’s a quick view. I’ve oftern said we try to double our money every 6 years or so. 18 years would be 6 doublings, or price X 2 X 2 X 2, otherwise said price times 2 to the 3rd power (or 8). Since 57 X 8 = 456, it would appear that he missed. But how much money did he actually invest? Even if you add up all the out-of-pocket expenses over the years, the total investment was about 20K. So 20K X 8 = 160, and he’s right on the money, because he should get that or more after negotiations, closing costs and possible commission. Using a classic FHA 3% down loan, he got in at 2K — not a fortune even in 1990, and he used OPM - OTHER PEOPLE’S MONEY. He took little risk and will make lots of money.

But the beauty of this isn’t the money. The beauty is it was a fun place when his wife and he were young, and they will have good memories always. Later, it was an investment that hardly made a dent in his financial life.

At the end of 17 or 18 years, Dilemma would be that much older, whether he had appreciating assets or not. Time does not care. But here are he and his wife, a little older, and ready to go on to the next adventure together — and able to because of their good sense.

That’s what it is about. It is not about dollar signs. It’s about living your life.

So I repeat what I said before - in fact, I will borrow your phrase CW, “Don’t sweat the small stuff.”

I have no idea what Dilemma is on his way to, and he needs to due the same due diligence there as anywhere else.

But as to the question at hand, Dilemma has done everything he needed to with this place. He should go forward and enjoy being married to his wife — not to a house in Lake Worth.

By niceloc

May 17, 2007 9:58 PM | Link to this

this looks like nice price. fending off forclosure ?

9656 Cobblestone Creek Drive

12/06 690,900

04/07 580,000

By Signed

May 17, 2007 10:21 PM | Link to this

“It has come to my attention that we have a bunch of big talkers, with no money to buy, and even less to say when the going gets tough…”

Signed,

Mike Fink, The leader of the bunch, trying to hype up his band of misfits thinking of ways to have a response to counter the effects of smart, long term investing.

After a few minutes, Fink leaves, calls up Rich R, and tells Rich he is threw leading the “nitwits” as he calls them. Rich R concurs, though he says it still plays good to the trailer park crowd in Haverhill, and invites him up to NC this summer for a tour of Shady Pines Estates.

By Ghoiat of a Chance

May 18, 2007 1:27 AM | Link to this

“niceloc” -

You are either incredibly stupid or clever enough to come up with an interesting situation.

I’m guessing incredibly stupid.

Once again, this was a land deal, in this case a Woodfield Country Club resident from Boca Raton having his hands all over some lots in Countryside Meadows, in the Wild West of Boynton.

He bought this particular lot as an LLC having with the same name as the address.

To avoid getting into his drawers, I will summarize and say he is making big money there, and this is once again not a case of a house dropping in value.

This one is convoluted, so maybe you are clever; but your speculation about foreclosure leads me to believe you didn’t even realize there was no house involved in the hocus pocus at the time.

Once again, no falling prices.

By niceloc

May 18, 2007 7:55 AM | Link to this

relax, ghost. no need for paranoia. The cobblestone prop was in an earlier post and is on page 1 of prop. trans. on this site. That as far as I was interested enough to look.

The tone of your response indicates you have either too much time on your hands or are too emotionally invested in ignoring REAL problems in SoFl RE mkt.

By Rich R

May 18, 2007 8:09 AM | Link to this

CW,

As usual, I agree with you 100%. BUT.

Our new friend in PBG has proven that a little common sense goes a long way.

I will say that giving this person advice is fruitless.

Without know thier complete financial picture, it’s almost impossible to give valid advise.

My advice for this seemingly smart person would be simply this.

Analyze you overall portfolio, Current Holdings, cash position, status of retirement planning and such, then visit with a CPA or Licensed financial planner and gain VALID advise as to the direction to move foward.

Purchasing the property as a homestead and holding it for 17 years as a rental has yeilded you a wonderful position.

As times and changed and the overall conditions in SoFla have changed very rapidly, it’s very important to not engage in the babble of this blog.

There are too many opinions on the blog from too many people for which you have no clue as to their true backgrounds and education, PLEASE, PLEASE seek valid, professional advice before you move forward. This will not only give you the answer to your question, but piece of mind as well.

It seems to me that you have very good grasp on things, and I do wish you the best of luck.

Either way, it seems you win. It’s just a matter of maximizing your return and rolling that gain into a productive vehicle for your future financial heath.

Regardless of what ANYONE on this blog can say. I firmly believe this is the most resonable advice yet.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 18, 2007 9:23 AM | Link to this

niceloc: The tone of MY response? The only reason I looked at this was you repeated it several times.

There ARE some things upsetting to me about what the getleman did, but they are far deeper than you have indicated you know about, and I won’t comment about them here.

You just summed up what you do on this blog: you throw the crap out there without having any idea what the property is or what the situation is. You try to give people the impression that you have evidence of prices falling on homes when you have no such evidence whatsoever.

There are “don’t wanters” in every market and I am sure somebody somewhere loses money on a house. But for survivng owners, the proportions are miniscule, and the stories I have heard on this blog usually turn out to be lies or exaggerations, like Rich R. telling people it will cost his friends 100K to walk away from a house they bought last year, then mentioning they did 75K of remodeling they had no business doing.

Granted, Rich R. is a pathological liar whose life is centered in South Florida, yet who claims to have moved to North Carolina.

But it is not right for people with some modicum of sanity to mislead their neighbors into thinking there are crashing prices all over the place. They would have to show up somewhere in the public records.

You, just like manipulators such as Jack McCabe, are trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. To the credit of the buying and selling public, this has not happened, despite a deluge of misinformation from promoters like McCabe and sensationalizing newspapers.

As time goes on and all the dire predictions become more and more shrill — and still don’t happen, people get a little more sophisticated. They look around and see what is what. They see prices that are in line with the rest of the economy, which is admittedly being ravaged by inflation, they see prices which are off by thousands of dollars from a year or two ago, and may be the best buying opportunity they get for years, and they see a market which has withstood a tsunami of negative sentiment and suspicion. There is something to be said for buying in such a market.

By WAKE UP

May 18, 2007 9:28 AM | Link to this

regular commodities expert - that’s me, I do have to agree, no offense to Rich, that the manure is quieter.

cw dead on as usual, I am probably way too optomistic regarding taxes, but I haven’t talked (face to face) with one person who thinks that the tax system will stay as is - they all think it’s very broken and in bad need of an overhaul. All think that doubling of homestead is BS and expect to see real results. If nothing substantial happens in special session next month I really think that people will start marching in Tally. I’m one of them, this system is so out of control I can’t stand it. I’ve said before I don’t mind paying more than the working class guy in a little 2/1 somewhere, there is a certain burden to bear to help out the “little guy”, but give me a break. The separation between the haves and have nots isn’t even the main problem with the system, it’s the inequities of neighbors that really needs fixing. Then we need to get the municipalities back in line. They’re already squawking about the services they’ll need to cut - total BS. They’re budgets have doubled the last few years with the extra taxes they’ve been collecting. PB County is sitting on $2BILLION dollar reserve - what kind of crap is that???

Sorry folks, ranting/venting - tax issue just really gets me going!

By cw1900

May 18, 2007 9:30 AM | Link to this

This could be a post, Twilight Zone style. Let’s see where it goes.

Look at what happened. Max, myself, and Rich R all in agreement. HeII must have frozen over. Does this mean the Dolphins will win the Super Bowl this year?

Max and Rich R…I agree completely with both your posts about Dilemma.

To add a few things….

I have learned much from some of you people on both sides of the aisle, but in general, even though we don’t know who any of us are, some of the advice is still sound. However, Rich R is absolutely correct. Use this blog as maybe a little fact gathering, or preliminary advice, because there are some really smart people on this blog, you can tell, but do get counsel from your own trusted sources. I totally agree.

To all of Max’s haters. I asked Max to give a little analysis of the numbers, because I knew, just by reading his posts for so long, I knew he could do that quickly and with some sound figures. Some of you may dispute his exact figures, but the principles he used in his quick analysis are valid and do make the point. The fact that there are no high school kids and “maxiasked” type boobs out there without any comment says it all.

What Max also did was show a side of him I’ve seen once before on another guy asking advice quite awhile ago, and his statement that “But the beauty of this isn’t the money.” and “That’s what it is about. It is not about dollar signs. It’s about living your life.” show that.

Deep down, Max has some good things to say, and I do believe his background. Some of the stuff he says could not come from a general idiot. At the same time, I believe Rich R’s background also. I know they don’t believe each other on the surface, but that’s between them. Deep down, however, they are the proverbial couple that fights all the time, because they really like each other and believe that under the surface, both have some brains. Now that will get a comment, you just know it.

Look, I’m an optimist, you all know that. It’s in my makeup. I try to find some good in all of us. Could there even be some redeeming quality in Chicago Boy we don’ see? Steve? Carolina Gal? What about Easy? Easy is full of redeeming qualities, we all know it. Who doesn’t look forward to his posts? The doomers can’t wait for them. Maybe I’m the Mother Theresa of this blog. Sorry, just a little dig to ego check and the rest of the cw haters out there. What ever happened to that guy who wanted me to fall off a bridge?

Side note….Fink and Rich R, you have to admit, that was a good post by Signed. It was funny. It does show you two are the most articulate and reasoned on your side of the aisle. I’m glad he’s back.

Good luck to Dilemma.

cw

By WAKE UP

May 18, 2007 9:35 AM | Link to this

One thing that nobody has discussed lately (up until Max a minute ago) is the raging inflation we’re facing right now - S Fla is a full point above the national average. Doesn’t anyone think it’s time for the wages in this part of the country to start catching up???

By cw1900

May 18, 2007 9:46 AM | Link to this

Wake Up,

You said, “They’re already squawking about the services they’ll need to cut - total BS. They’re budgets have doubled the last few years with the extra taxes they’ve been collecting. PB County is sitting on $2BILLION dollar reserve - what kind of crap is that???”

I totally agree.

cw

By Curious

May 18, 2007 9:54 AM | Link to this

The Mortgage Market Mess By Christopher Westley Posted on 5/17/2007

http://www.mises.org/story/2555

“This is not your father’s housing market, nor your grandfather’s, for that matter. For them, steadily rising — but basically stable — home values seemed (more or less) a given. Recent news suggests that that situation may be a thing of the past.

The National Association of Realtors estimated optimistically (have you ever known a pessimistic realtor?) that housing prices will fall 16 percent in 2007 — their first overall decline in 40 years. ….

If 40 percent of the Alt-A market fails this year (as many estimate), financial markets will be looking at $1 trillion in defaults.

That’s a lot of defaults, especially when you consider that the 1980s S&L crisis cost, by comparison, $150 billion (about $240 billion in today’s dollars) and is partly blamed for the 1990-–91 recession. Does today’s mortgage market promise a similar result today, on the eve of the baby boomers’ retirement? ….

The situation reminds us that bad things happen when pols manipulate markets to achieve their ends. In this case, there was a recession that resulted from an inflationary boom that they created. What do you do when housing market malinvestments, spurred by Alan Greenspan’s cheap-money policies of the 1990s, pushes housing prices out of reach to the middle class?

*      Option 1: Say mea culpa and cease policies that create bubbles in the first place (and pay a political price at the polls).

*      Option 2: Give those placed in such positions a short-term solution that allows them a way out, even if you are simply postponing the day of reckoning by a few years.

These two options reflect an important point made in Henry Hazlitt’s classic book, Economics in One Lesson. Economic policy options often have either positive short-term effects and negative long-term effects, or negative short-term effects and positive long-term effects. It’s obvious which option is favored in today’s mass democracy, since politicians are extremely short-term oriented — indeed, their focus is about as long as the next election.”

JUST THE FACTS MA’AM; JUST THE FACTS.

:-)

By cw1900

May 18, 2007 10:14 AM | Link to this

Curious,

You said, “… Economic policy options often have either positive short-term effects and negative long-term effects, or negative short-term effects and positive long-term effects. It’s obvious which option is favored in today’s mass democracy, since politicians are extremely short-term oriented — indeed, their focus is about as long as the next election.”

I totally agree with that.

cw

By Rich R

May 18, 2007 10:18 AM | Link to this

Although this post starts out with little about Real Estate, stay with me. It quickly moves to RE.

This is a very, very long post, I’m sorry for that. If you don’t want to read it, just move down the page.

Last night a few friends came over the house to shoot pool and have a few drinks; we had a great time. One of the men is an Analyst with a major brokerage house, (we’ll call him Dean) and spends his days crunching numbers and such. This is an extremely educated person that deals with numbers and works on the Long Term Strategic Planning for his firm. I hold this person’s opinion in high regard.

As the evening progressed, at one point the discussion touched on the rapidly increasing price of gasoline as many people are talking about lately. With everyone in the room earning a 6-figure income and one with a deep six figure income, the wife of another friend made a comment, “I don’t care about gas prices. It used to cost me $40 to fill up, now it’s $96, no big deal” “It’s only a few bucks, what’s all the noise about”. The wife is a physician. Immediately, Dean chimed in and started on this long discussion as to the true trickle down effects and went on to explain that this exact topic has become the focus for the department in which he heads. He went on to say…

Families living beyond your needs and the over indulgence so prevalent in the culture of the US, along with the keeping up the Jones’s that just fry me and others on this blog such as CW, will have a bigger impact on all of us then anyone on this blog would ever imagine. Dean was basically saying that although you may not live with this philosophy, and you may have good assets and a high income, it WOULD affect you tremendously. Of course, we all asked him to explain further.

Dean was off to the races and continued with a 45-minute explanation complete with visuals flow charts and such to illustrate his points. I was amazed that he and his group had gone so deep into this topic, in an attempt to provide for reasonable predictability for which his firm must have to determine the direction to move for the short and long term. At the end, we all just stood there looking at each other. It’s not a pretty picture.

As we all have discussed on this blog for over a year now, the HELOC babies who used their homes as an ATM machine, and the other’s with their crazy option ARM, Negative AM, Interest only mortgages etc. will affect everyone of us, regardless of what your personal position is.

As the housing market nationwide (not just SoFla) is in a slump, combined with too many families abusing their home equity and living beyond their means, have kept retail sales strong for such items as Plasma TV’s, High End cars, Too much house for the income, the Starbucks, the $15 hamburgers at the fancy grille etc. The free flowing cash is drying up and at a frightening pace. This is resulting in plummeting sales and such virtually across the board. Dean explains that American Households now maintain get this…. over $850 Billion Dollars in credit card debt, with most of it bearing interest rates in excess of 18%.

Everything from Eggs, to Milk, to dry goods and anything else moved by rail or truck is going up in price, as the cost to provide such items have increased accordingly. The White House will tell you that inflation is in check, but who can trust that considering the source and the current Administration with their track record. Just go to the store and see for yourself.

Here’s the big problem as Dean’s group see it.

The folks living beyond their means typically live paycheck to paycheck and at the end of the week, there is just not enough to satisfy the needs and desires of the Jones’s and their followers. As this situation gains momentum, the number of households in financial distress will skyrocket at an alarming rate. Dean’s discussion included many other things such as Heath Care costs, long-term care for elderly family members and such, but there’s no need to go that deep here. We all get the point.

Dean went on to explain that the evaporation of dollars just to maintain the status quo within the home, results in an increasing number of mortgage delinquencies and the subsequent foreclosures. As more and more of these properties make their way to the REO departments (Real Estate Owned) of our financial institutions, the mass dumping of these properties begins. As this occurs, the comps in your area drop like a rock. When you go to sell your home, and get that magical appraisal, guess what……. Your value just dropped too because your neighbors (the Jones family) couldn’t cover the bills.

With too many people well above the standard 80% Loan-to-Value ratio, there is no cushion at all for these families to bail out of their home, even at a loss because they owe more then the home is worth. Not only foreclosures go up, the Bankruptcy rate is expected to climb as well, hitting the Banks and other creditors very hard. As I am listening to this, I was thinking of Olympia and Evergreene and just thinking how Dean’s group is so very correct, as many of us have been saying for a long time, especially CW.

Dean made the comment that during this period of adjustment in the US, many will fall on hard times, but he also said Millionaires will be made during this time. Some Billionaire once said, “The way to make money is to do the opposite of what everyone else is doing”

As we all know, I am the pessimist, my friend Dean is 180 degrees and typically the optimist, but in this situation, he basically said, it’s all in the numbers.

Dean’s advice to all was simple and clear. Eliminate debt; cut expenses across the board, stockpile cash in secure environments. It’s going to be a rocky road for the period of adjustment as American Households learn that we are now in a Global Economy and the longtime luxuries associated with an encapsulated US Economy is now moving to more of a European parallel. Brits have been paying almost $7 a gallon for Gas for many years.

I can go on and on, oh, I already have.

I’ll end it here. Sorry again for the longest post in this blogs history.

By Rich R

May 18, 2007 10:28 AM | Link to this

One thing I forgot and this is for Easyasabc.

At the end of Dean’s discussion, he said the following.

“You can either be a HAVE or a HAVE NOT, and only you can decide that”.

I laughed outloud and they all looked at me. Easy has been saying this for well over a year.

Very funny.

By Rich R

May 18, 2007 10:35 AM | Link to this

About Max,

I do have to say, I am in agreement with Max this time.

My big gripe with Max is not his intelligence, he is a smart man.

My big issue with him is his over all attitude and extemely rude and nasty words and outbursts used towards others that disagree with him. I have no tolerance for people of such poor character and I too will lash out.

If he would just stop with the name calling, nasty behaviour, we could probably have a valid debate. But it just cooks me when he becomes so childish and posts with the lack of social graces and respect for others.

By WAKE UP

May 18, 2007 10:46 AM | Link to this

errr…good post Rich(?) I think - very depressing, but I think we can all take something from it. Good parallels to what cw has been posting about living within your means.

It’s amazing how much access to information the internet gives us as a society. What the hell is the Ludwig Von Mises Institute and why is Curious quoting an economics professor at Jackson State University? Not that this is any exact calculation, but if indeed there will be defaults in the trillion dollar range, that’s a lot of mortgages. Median US home price hovering above $200k, would represent somewhere around 5 million defaulted loans to get to $1T. That’s a huge number that I have a hard time believing. I’ve seen other statistics that talk about 2 or 3% of all loans defaulting - if 5M loans were to represent 2% of all loans, that’s 250M loans out there…dunno seems skewed to me, especially when report the other day only showed figures of bankruptcies in the hundreds of thousands and not millions.

By Rich R

May 18, 2007 11:04 AM | Link to this

Once again, it’s the predictability that’s crucial.

The current state of affairs is not good; Dean’s point is due to what we all should just refer to as the “Jones syndrome” is only now beginning to gain momentum and at an alarming rate. His opinion is what we are seeing now, is only the tip of the iceberg.

For many years, we in the US have enjoyed a wonderful economy, and the younger folks, those in their 20’s through early 40’s have never lived through really tough times, and feel they are immune to the affects of their careless spending. After all, just get another 0% credit card, no big deal; WRONG!.

Did anyone see CBS Evening News last night talking about the amount of credit card debt the average undergrad carries? This just feeds into what my friend Dean was saying.

Younger people need better education in Financial Responsiblity.

The people who live this way can very well bring us all down with them. That’s the scary part.

I still got a huge kick out Dean’s use of the HAVE and HAVE NOT terms.

By General Observation

May 18, 2007 11:18 AM | Link to this

General observation

The reason that you haven’t read anybody on this blog dispute the ones telling people to live within your means is not hard to figure. I espouse those same principles, and think the credit mess is a ticking time bomb.

The reason is that the data would suggest that the vast majority of people who visit this blog, and read and make comments, are up to their ears in all that debt that has been discussed. They are silent, because they read and see themselves, and are terrified. It is a scary thought. They just mirror the society as a whole.

They are living a lie, and it will fall down around eventually. It has to.

I do not know one family in my circle of friends, neighbors, co-workers, who is debt free, except for the the mortgage, as Rich, and yes, Cw, have been talking about for a long time. Not one.

The scary thing is that most everyone I know has a home equity loan or line of credit of some type, and I don’t see many too home upgrades, additions, remodelings because of it. That means they are spending home equity on Starbucks and vacations.

That ought to scare the living bejesus out of you.

I challenge one person here on this blog to post your reason for taking equity out of your home to buy a car, go on vacation, something other than a major home improvement. I especially want to hear from anybody who has taken out home equity to invest the money in the stock market.

If you do, be prepared for a good challenge, because there is no valid reason to ever do it, if you have ever thought of the concept of risk.

Rich R, a fascinating post. I hope it scares people straight.

By Rich R

May 18, 2007 11:32 AM | Link to this

My post above was way too long for the blog and that upsets some.

There was much more to the discussion posted above, but I boiled it down for posting purposes.

I asked Dean what his opinion was on the current level of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (notice “JONES” is in there).

He was very fast to answer and basically said that money managers and other smart investors from institutial investors to brokage houses realize what’s really going on.

The DJIA is comprised of 30 companies. Each and everyone of these companies operate on a global basis and don’t fall prey to the trends specific to the US individually.

Investors are shifting assets to these investments as a way to be more secure.

Notice that not all segments of the stock market are performing well, but the Dow jones 30 is.

He did suggest that the Dow will continue to climb, but there is an end to all parties.

That’s his job, to predict with reasonable certainty as to what the markets will do.

His firm manages Billions, and Billions of dollars for their clients and this makes or breaks a brokerage firm.

As we all know, money is made in both directions, when the market goes up AND when the market goes down. It’s the ability to read the trends and conduct business accordingly that yeilds gains.

By Rich R

May 18, 2007 11:49 AM | Link to this

Max often talks about the homes in the upper markets and how they are still selling. I believe that is true, but understand and Max can correct me if I’m wrong, but I would suggest that the average age of the folks buying the homes in the $750k+ market are older folks.

You know who I am talking about. The people from the north and other places that due to their age and upbringing bought their homestead 30+ years ago, paid it off in 15 or 20 years, raised their children, now empty nesters, sold it for a high multiple of what was paid, and have the benefit of company sponsored pensions and such.

The next generation will not have either because of the shift in American Business Culture and of course the Jones Syndrome.

That spells disaster.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 18, 2007 11:51 AM | Link to this

There goes Curious causing trouble again, only this time he may get a pass.

He correctly quoted the amateurish article he read on the web, however the article is wrong.

NAR is NOT predicting a 16% decline in housing prices. Their projection changes all the time and I remember a 1.6% decline somewhere along the line, but now they are at 1% decline followed by a slightly higher rise next year.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/08/realestate/homepricestodip/index.htm?postversion=2007050816

This Money article captures it pretty well.

Ken Heebner? Another mad genius with spectacular (as far as REIT’s go) successes and spectacular flops (in general funds). He did well by overloading in real estate in the early 2000’s, but now that he is unloading, what is he supposed to say? That he thinks he is screwing his subscribers?

Like anyone else, he has no crystal ball, and if some self-serving comments may become a self-fulfilling propehcy — why the heck not try it?

His comments are not being taken too seriously, however, and there are many Wall Street hotshots who doubt his sincerity on this particular issue.

By Realist

May 18, 2007 11:59 AM | Link to this

Max,

The correct spelling is Heisenberg not Heisnenberg also it is a Poisson distribution not a Poission distribution. Actually the Heisenberg uncertainty principle is a good way to explain the differences here between the cheerleaders and the realists (little r) school of thought. Some of us started in life with the same type of back grounds yet there is no way to measure how we came to such radically different schools of thought. Max my friend you are the third way. You are a self serving person who uses his savant intelligence in order to attempt to manipulate and control others view points to benefit yourself. It is clear from your uncontrolled outbursts you have a lot of overleveraged skin in the real estate market. The reason you are on the point of breakdown is that you cannot understand how someone who is so intelligent could be so close to ruin. Your attacks, misdirection’s, lies and just bad behavior are tiresome and will not alter the current marketplace. There are some good people on here who have some good thoughts about the current real estate market and others I am sure who would like to ask questions however because of your despicable behavior do not. Please post your thoughts not your tirades.

Someone on here stated that construction costs will keep prices up. Well the problem there is that costs are on the way down. Construction is down 25% from a year ago and April permit were down 9%. Again supply and demand will lower construction costs. Furthermore, builders in the past few years were getting much higher than normal profit margins than is usual in the construction industry.

By Curious

May 18, 2007 12:12 PM | Link to this

WAKE UP,

“It’s amazing how much access to information the internet gives us as a society. What the hell is the Ludwig Von Mises Institute and why is Curious quoting an economics professor at Jackson State University?

Not that this is any exact calculation, but if indeed there will be defaults in the trillion dollar range, that’s a lot of mortgages. Median US home price hovering above $200k, would represent somewhere around 5 million defaulted loans to get to $1T. That’s a huge number that I have a hard time believing. I’ve seen other statistics that talk about 2 or 3% of all loans defaulting - if 5M loans were to represent 2% of all loans, that’s 250M loans out there…dunno seems skewed to me, especially when report the other day only showed figures of bankruptcies in the hundreds of thousands and not millions.”

Ah-hmmmmmm. The reason I posted the link was because this article was way too long to post here, so I just posted what I thought were succinct excerpts to pique interest to get you to read the rest.

One paragraph omitted seems to address your comment:

“To understand why, just do the math. In the United States today, there is approximately $10 trillion in outstanding mortgages, and of these, about one-quarter are subprime and Alt-A loans. (Subprime loans are made to borrowers with little or no credit, while Alt-A loans are made to borrowers with better credit but who are not considered prime.) Individuals who access such loans often pay a below-market interest rate, or an interest-only mortgage payment, for the first few years of the mortgage. But after that, mortgage payments are adjusted to reflect prevailing market rates. If 40 percent of the Alt-A market fails this year (as many estimate), financial markets will be looking at $1 trillion in defaults.”

Cheers!

By Rich R

May 18, 2007 12:44 PM | Link to this

I am amazed that I didn’t get any backlash over my extremely long post of this morning.

I wonder why?

Curious, you are spelling out a senario that many of us older folks are familiar with.

Does anyone remember the crash that killed the Savings and Loan’s in the mid ‘80’s and put an end to the FSLIC? It was a blood bath.

I guess the tax payers will pay the bill for this too, but this time it will be FDIC that takes the hit.

Remember folks, you are only insured for $100,000 with FDIC. That’s not each account, it’s each DEPOSITOR.

Spead it around people. Be very careful not to have all of your eggs in one basket.

I went to the bank last week with my parents, as I help them with their cash management.

The branch manager of the bank was dancing around this issue when I was very specific in telling my Mother to only put $100K in this CD and then we would run over to Wacovia, then Bank of America and do the same etc.

The man turned red in the face and was obviously upset with me.

Banks want your money, they resell it for a profit and really don’t care.

By WAKE UP

May 18, 2007 1:17 PM | Link to this

Curious - I read the whole article, I’m just in disgareement. The math is simple enough (even though the charts provided don’t seem to jive) 40% of the 2.5T outstanding in Alt-A is 1T - okay easy enough, but who thinks it’s going to 40% of the Alt A’s besides the professor from Jackson State? Some of the numbers I’ve seen (doesn;t make them any more correct) show a default rate of 2-3% of all loans including traditional - that’s night and day compared to 40%. The number of bankruptcies is up obviously from numbers posted the other day, but my point is that there would need to be millions upon millions nationally of bankruptcies to get to a 40% default rate and it just doesn’t seem that likely. I would guess that the true Alt A default rate may turn out somewhere around 10% which would still be significant = $250B in defaulted loans, but a far cry from $1T. Many banks are working feverishly at re-writing and converting loans to help borrowers from tanking - the banks want to lend money not be in the RE business, the last thing they really want is to auction off property at a loss.

By Rich R

May 18, 2007 1:38 PM | Link to this

Even a default rate of 10% of all loans would cripple the banking industry.

Banks will start to drop like fly’s.

We went through this in the ‘80’s.

Does anyone remember during that period when 1st mortgages with good credit were in the area of 12% with 10 points to close?

What about the 2nd mortgages at full usery rate of 18%.

Money was very expensive and we can thank Jimmy Carter and Reaganomics for that. But the median price back then was (I think) in the area of $70K.

Still, a $70K mortgage had a payment over $1,000

Younger people don’t know about or remember this and think that 5-6% mortgage rates are normal. Guess Again.

By WAKE UP

May 18, 2007 1:51 PM | Link to this

LOL - Rich some of us younger folks do actually remember those rates. It is staggering when you really think of the differnces in the last 25 years.

I had a conversation with my father a few weeks back - we were discussing the 2/1 that he bought with my mother in 1972 for a whopping $22k. He was terrified of the mortgage payment that was going to be about $200/month. Now of course he was very young and only making around $7 an hour at the time, so he was close to being in over his head, but we had a chuckle comparing it to present day housing costs and mortgage payments. It’s really amazing the perception from one generation to the next.

By Realist

May 18, 2007 1:54 PM | Link to this

I don’t think we are going to have 10% default rate however, it will be a big number which will then force the markets to clamp down on credit. Once credit is tight (it will probably be over tight for awhile) the real declines in prices will begin. In my opinion there is just too much liquidity out there and it just keeps creating bubbles in different commodities.

By Differantera

May 18, 2007 2:25 PM | Link to this

Can relate to diff mindset re use of credit now. Bought 1st home in 1968, 25K, barely able to qualify for mtg of 20K because of tight requirements.

Only bought kitchen set, bedroom set and great Stereo system that sat on the floor, all cash. No other furniture allowed easy painting etc and great house parties.

Saved for other furniture, but spent that cash on trip to Europe for summer before kids. Started saving again for furniture then other house on lake in North NJ was offered to me. Bought it from aquantaince who held mtg. No furniture again in 1st house, rented out 2nd. Luckily, wife just laughed after calming down.

To cut it short we did without what we could not pay up front for. Only debt, mtgs. Even cars. Remember buying Renault R10 new, $1900 cash. Drove to almost every state in Union in that. Could have financed bigger, never felt need to.

Own multiple properties still, do spend much freer now, as kids (5) all out of college doing fine.

Simple msg : if you don’t NEED it, don’t friggin buy it. If you need to put it on credit you don’t NEED it.

By easyasabc

May 18, 2007 2:28 PM | Link to this

ABC Nightline had a story about Florida tax problem. They had some young Cuban politician boy from Miami sitting at a table, having $15 lunch platters with people who cannot afford the property taxes here. At the end, he proposed in the the State House that no one should pay property taxes. I cannot believe the idiots who vote people like “Cuban Boy” into office. I have said this before, all this property tax reduction talk is B.S. …..Charlie Crist just won over you people for a paycheck ………someone mention median price back in the 70’s or 80’s…..the ratio of wages and median price was much closer together back then, than today……..When Wall St. gets the first indication people will go back into real estate, the market will fall like a rock falling off of a building……..Rich, you need to hold in your laughter during a seminar or they will not offer you the free cookies and coffee afterwards ……..not everyone who is selling these days have mortgages or pay into HOA’s……many people do not have the pressure to sell…..many people can wait it out……Another news network talked about the short falls in many local cities here in their budgets…..I saw WPB might layoff police and firemen…..they should start sending their resumes to the Carolinas before it is too late……if these cities really work on their budgets, you can find ways to cut out the pork………..Afordable housing…please check out Belle Glade…..Florida was ranked #1 with the highest inflation percentage in the last quarter based on housing, food, utlities and durable goods….get use to it folks, prices are going up everywhere……a couple on the next block over from me, took their house off the market…….nine months, and their realtor did not bring one person over…..

Life is good in Palm Beach & Southern California

By Rich R

May 18, 2007 2:31 PM | Link to this

Realist,

The clamp down on credit will just perpetuate the deterioration of market.

Less people will qualify; less people will be able to buy, even with good income.

Many home sellers are “Must Sellers” loss of income, divorce, breadwinner death, job transfer, and many other reasons causing great hardship if they can’t sell. What happens when you MUST sell the home and it don’t sell.

If there are fewer buyers you have a stronger buyers market. This feeds into lower values. Basic economics – Supply and Demand. We are seeing that now in SoFla.

24,000 home currently in inventory and more being added daily. Less then 800 are selling monthly, and the inventory seems to continue to climb.

This really doesn’t seem to be the case in the upper markets, but what about the other 90%. Combine that with the crazy insurance crisis, and then the taxes. Very ugly.

With the upcoming special session geared for tax relief, well that scares me too. Local officials are scaring the hell out of people with the impending cuts for police and fire and other services. This, in a time of skyrocketing violent crime. Less fire services could very well give the Insurance companies another reason to raise rates, as they will say that their exposure is higher due to the reduced Fire services. There will be no winners in this.

I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for a significant tax reform plan. I’d be willing to bet it will get allot of hype and in the end will save the average homeowner few hundred bucks a year. One thing I’ve learned over the years, when taxes are raised, it’s a big raise. When taxes are cut, it’s tiny. If you are aware of a different scenario, please do fill me in.

Has anyone seen a significant cut to Homeowners rates that was promised earlier in the year? Anyone? All the hype, all the politicians smiling on TV, but no real impact.

It’s just not a pretty picture.

I guess it’s just going to be the survival of the fittest.

It’s anybody’s guess.

By Rich R

May 18, 2007 2:39 PM | Link to this

Differantera,

You are my kinda guy. You have the best quote of the day.

“Simple msg : if you don’t NEED it, don’t friggin buy it. If you need to put it on credit you don’t NEED it.”

I couldn’t have said it any better.

I’m sure CW will agree.

Easy, you are actually correct. NC is working real hard to fill open positions for the Highway Patrol, they are actually running recruitment ads on TV. Fire too.

By Rich R

May 18, 2007 2:47 PM | Link to this

Easy,

I do have to say I have a new found respect for you.

A year ago this time, you ended every post with:

“As we speak prices are rising”

I notice that is absent from your recent posts.

It seems you’ve come full circle.

What happened?

By Rich R

May 18, 2007 2:58 PM | Link to this

WAKE UP,

In your post above you said.

“He was terrified of the mortgage payment that was going to be about $200/month. Now of course he was very young and only making around $7 an hour at the time”

This proves the point that Mike Fink has been preaching for a long time and Easyasabc just posted.

At $7 an hour=$280 per week. That’s $14,560 per year, with a mortgage payment of $2,400. That means your parents housing cost was 16% of gross earnings.

Take a look at any working class family in PBC who bought in the past few years and you will find that most of these families are paying in excess of 45% (and in may cases, much more) of gross earnings on housing.

This just proves Mike Finks point.

By Realist

May 18, 2007 2:59 PM | Link to this

Rich R,

I agree 100% I just don’t think the defaults will be as high as 10%. The bottom line is when the big resets come in October you will see the first wave of real housing problems. So far we have had just a taste of what is to come.

By Rich R

May 18, 2007 3:06 PM | Link to this

This has been a good day on the blog.

No name calling, even Max has been civil.

It’s really nice to see this blog tone down a bit and get back to the issue that Jeff and the PB post intended for this blog.

Very nice to see this indeed.

Let’s all just agree to be nice (even if you disagree) and keep it civil and treat others with the respect you expect in return.

Life is good anywhere, if you strive for that and take adversity for a grain of salt.

“Anyone can turn lemons into lemonaide with a little sugar.”

That’s not my line. My long departed grand mother used to say that

By Curious

May 18, 2007 3:07 PM | Link to this

WAKE UP,

Yes, and remember the economics professor writer used the “as many estimate” term; whoever THEY are and whatever THAT means?

Prompts a remembrance of the old adage by G .B. Shaw, “If all economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion. “

Bottom line here is that let’s all hope you are right!

For someone else who asked about the website from which these quotes were taken, …

If you are interested in expanding your knowledge of economics, specifically from the neo-classical school, you should well read what this man has contributed:

http://www.mises.org/content/mises.asp

Cheers!

By Ghost of a Chance

May 18, 2007 3:13 PM | Link to this

Wow, whole lotta typing going on.

Could only scan through things for the moment, saw Realist’s ridiculous answer. Apparently he doesn’t have the belly to debate me in quantum mechanics or math (wise choice), but I note he does not understand clinical psychology either, and has the notion of a “savant” backwards. Contrary to a savant, expecially one afflicted with autism, I am a person of generally unusally high intelligence, with specific deficits arising from a surfeit of empathy.

My wasting time here, for example, makes no sense, but I got involved because I saw people being worried and tormented as a result of the sheer nonsense perpetrated by some sadistic souls, aided by irresponsbile journalism.

Pardon my typos, Realist, I type very fast and in a foreign language (English). How many languages do you do business in? Is that another of my “savant” abilities, or is that a mark of interest in other cultures?

+++++++++++++++++++

CW, WAKE and Rich R:

For a long time I have been a lone voice crying in the wilderness about inflation, and how house infaltion was (until recently) the most conspicuous kind of inflation. I am hoping you understand that inflation is out of control as the dollar sinks against major currencies such as the Euro, and that a retreat to lower house prices is hardly likely during a time of such inflation. We would need a depression - a time when everything LOSES value in people’s estimation, in order for house prices to drop, and I certainly would not want to see that, for everybody’s sake.

As for Rich R.’s comment to Dilemma: It’s also usually me advising people to get the opinion of a CPA. However, there is more to life than dollars, and I felt that the issues for Dilemma were more about that than about money. Insofar as money goes, howerver, Rich’s advice and mine were not inconsistent.

The funny thing is, Rich often pens the same opinion as mine, while assumiing mine is the opposite, since he just assumes I’m out there selling houses in a gold jacket. No matter. Most of us have good reasons for keeping our privacy, there are plenty of nuts out there, and I am not 100% convinced Easy isn’t one of them.

Easy’s antisemitism and racism are genuine, and some people show a sadistic streak in try to scare others out of their homes. Apart from that, I don’t the blog very seriously, and really don’t hold a grudge against anybody, not even the little high school pukes like Brightman, who will be an actual person one day.

I am sure if we were all at a sho-down or ho-down or whatever it is in NC with Rich and Fink, we would all have a good time. From the other side, CW sounds nice and Wake sounds like a lot of fun — and maybe always up for a little mischief. Prices sounds a bit dull but maybe he would lighten up. Maybe Internet Madam and Carolina Gal would make provisions to get us all….entertained.

So don’t take it seriously guys, it’s all in fun.

By Rich R

May 18, 2007 3:23 PM | Link to this

Max,

I am impressed by your last post.

I would like to compliment you and say thanks.

You may be a nice guy, I’ll never know. You haven’t given us much to reach that conclusion.

You do seem to take opposing positions personally and that’s fine. It was the constant name calling that got under my skin.

If we can put an end to that, perhaps we can debate the issue to the benefit of all regardless of our individual beliefs.

Maybe? it’s totally up to you.

By Realist

May 18, 2007 3:32 PM | Link to this

Max had I meant the derogatory version I would have used it. Now read it again as written and you will see the meaning of my post. As far as quantum mechanics go what debate? Are you referring to string theory being the theory of everything or not? There is nothing to debate as I have no idea if string theory is the unifying theory or not neither do you. And what does that have to do with the topic? I did not know you are ESOL. If you happen to be french then I will be more inclined to understand your rude Gallic behavior. If you are french then why do you not know the meaning of savant?

savant: is a learned person, well versed in literature or science as well as the fine arts, often with an exceptional skill in a specialized field of learning .

By WAKE UP

May 18, 2007 3:46 PM | Link to this

I’m going to play semi dumb here - what point? That too much of a household’s income is going to housing? I don’t think that’s news and I don’t think anyone here has disputed that recently. What several people have tried to say is that houses are too expensive for the average family and therefore the price of houses should come down to a more realistic ratio.

Okay - how about this, I think that Mercedes Benz charges way too much for their cars - so much that the average family can’t afford one; therefore, MB should reduce the prices until we can all afford one.

That’s just silly isn’t it.

What needs to happen is an increase in wages that would keep pace with the rising cost of living. Go back to Dilemma’s case above - why is his payment higher today than 5 years ago - it’s not the cost of the house or even the mortgage payment, it’s the taxes and insurance. How many people on this blog pay $400+/month for insurance - probably quite a few. How many pay $500+/month for taxes - again probably most. So nearly $1,000/month, which is a 1/4 of the median family income for the county. Numbers that have doubled and tripled in the last few years - what has the median income done for the last few years? Not much has it.

EVERYTHING is more expensive in S Fla than it was 5 years ago, yet wages refuse to increase. Why is that? I know of contruction workers that earn 6 figure incomes in New York City. Why? Because of the cost of living. We bury our heads in the sand to this fact, but it’s true. The same jobmy father had 30+ years ago (an apprentice electrician)would only pay about $15/hr today. Which by many peoples standards would be a good, honest job with a decent wage. But how can anyone live on, what, $2,400/month? They can’t - forget about housing, what about a car, auto insurance, gas, food. There’s nothing left for a house!

By WAKE UP

May 18, 2007 3:57 PM | Link to this

Rich - I agree it has been pleasant today…let’s keep that up next week. Until then, have a good weekend all.

By Realist

May 18, 2007 4:49 PM | Link to this

WAKE UP,

You are ignoring the substitution effect with your example. If Mercedes Benz were the only car to buy and bicycles were outlawed then your example would have limited merit. However, there are many different houses to buy and of course many many places to rent. Another problem according to PBC School district stats, people are leaving the area. The pain is being felt with the folks trying to unload their properties as they have the “high” costs on their back the buyers can simply wait it out. As far as wages go business are limited as to what they can pay due to competition. Business simply will move away to another state or even country if costs for themselves and/or their employees become unsustainable.

By Curious

May 18, 2007 4:51 PM | Link to this

THE COMPELLING REAL ESTATE ISSUE:

Home price, $200,000 Down payment, $40,000 30 years @ 5.9%= $949/mo + taxes and insurance Buyer income: $67,000/yr

Home price, $250,000 Down payment, $50,000 30 years @ 5.9%= $1, 1876/mo + taxes and insurance Buyer income: $83,333/yr

Home price, $300,000 Down payment, $60,000 30 years @ 5.9%= $1,424/mo + taxes and insurance Buyer income: $100,000/yr

Home price, $350,000 Down payment, $70,000 30 years @ 5.9%= $1,661/mo + taxes and insurance Buyer income: $116,000/yr

Home price, $400,000 Down payment, $80,000 30 years @ 5.9%= $1,898/mo + taxes and insurance Buyer income: $133,000/yr

Home price, $450,000 Down payment, $90,000 30 years @ 5.9%= $2,135/mo + taxes and insurance Buyer income: $150,000/yr

Home price, $500,000 Down payment, $100,000 30 years @ 5.9%= $2,373/mo + taxes and insurance Buyer income: $167,000/yr

Home price, $550,000 Down payment, $110,000 30 years @ 5.9%= $2,610/mo + taxes and insurance Buyer income: $183,000/yr

Home price, $600,000 Down payment, $120,000 30 years @ 5.9%= $2,847/mo + taxes and insurance Buyer income: $200,000/yr

Approximate local median family income: $55,000.

Cash on hand, RIGHT!

By Ghost of a Chance

May 18, 2007 4:53 PM | Link to this

Realist - I never said I was French.

I do speak French, though, obviously, and I know what “savant” means in French; however as a noun rather than participle it has another meaning in English, in the field of psychology, and that is the meaning I was referring to. Oh, and string theory is passe’ de mode.

Realist and Rich R. -

As I say guys, it’s all in fun.

To everybody:

People seem to disappeaer on the weekend, so I’ll say BUN FANN S’MEN (bonne fin de semaine / have a good weekend) now.

a.l.p.

(a la prochaine / till next time).

By Ghost of a Chance

May 18, 2007 5:28 PM | Link to this

OK, you are all going to roll your eyes, but I can’t help myself.

Technically, the present participle of savoir is “sachant;’ and the word ‘savant’ exists as a noun. But in everyday French you are much more like to hear something like “Y est savant en _” — He is knowledgable in __.

The reason I am going through all this is that the English Psychiatric term “savant” or “idiot savant” refers to abilities that are not facts “known” or learned at all, but that occur naturally and tend to be discovered accidentally in persons with severely disruptive mental afflictions, such as severe retardation coupled with autism.

In other words, it is ironic to call these people “savants,” when they themselves know nothing of the problems they are able to solve, and little about their ability to solve them. Rather, they instantly solve problems in a way “normal” people can not, and to which “normal” people do not even have an heuristic approach.

Well, you’re certainly lucky I thought about THAT aren’t you….

By Curious

May 18, 2007 5:47 PM | Link to this

ANOTHER SAD AD:

“$429,900 Duplex

Two, 3 bedrooms 2 baths. CBS structure built in 2001. Fully rented for $2,175.00 per month (rents could be increased). Total square foot 2324, 1162 per side. “

Assuming this to be true, who in his right mind would pay more than about $150,000 for this property, assuming it is in a relatively good location and can show a cash throw-off of at least 20% for all the headaches and problems of ownership?

By Ghost of a Chance

May 18, 2007 6:22 PM | Link to this

Curious:

1) Cash on hand (most of my customers in Boca Raton)

2) Cash from IRA, 401K, 403B, etc etc etc.

3) Cash from proceeds of simultaneous closing

4) 1031 tax-free roll

5) Direct inheritance

6) Excercise option on lease / purchase at lower strike price

7) Use equity from existing properties through HELOC’s, etc.

8) Purchase with partners/friends

9) Purchase with limited partners - raise capital

10) Purchase with REIT (also limited partners)

11) Purchase through “C” corporation - raise stock

12) Purchase by large company, such as insurance companies

13) Buy from FSBO with no qualifying / credit recording

14) Assume qualifying or non-qualifying loan, the older the better

15) Contract for deed

16) Arrange equity participation agreement with owner

17) Tax sales

18) Foreclosure acutions

19) Short sales — arrange with creditor

20) FHA eligibility

21) VA eligibility

22) Buy and rent out

23) Buy and get roommates

24) Alternative credit sources: still laughing over WAKE’s 150K on credit cards with no interest

25) Easement by prescription

26) Easement by necessity

27) Deed via adverse possession

28) Marry someone with a house

29) Subdivide a piece of land, use the profits to build a house, then make it look like a loss in this blog

CURIOUS - I could go on and on and on. If you think acquiring property is a function of your salary, you have little real estate knowledge and less imagination.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 18, 2007 6:45 PM | Link to this

Curious does it again.

You may be overlooking a golden opportunity.

What is the address, or MLS number?

I will look it at, for sure.

By Rich R

May 18, 2007 7:06 PM | Link to this

Max,

You are REALLY reaching on this.

You can talk about investment stratgies until the cows come home.

The simple fact is, most home buyers are just that, folks seeking a home to live in and raise their families; nothing more.

You can spin this all night long, and for every TYPICAL home buyer, I’m sure you can come up with some “Family Trust” situation to mute the efforts of the working class family in their pursuit of the American Dream.

The unforunate thing is this. The vast majority of Home Buyers in the 100-500K arena are just that, FAMILIES.

If you want to deal in the commercial evironment, that’s cool with me.

But most all of the folks on this blog really don’t care about what some REIT out of NY, CA or IL desires.

Not all properties can be investment properties. Many people really just want a place to live and to call their own.

Max, just face it, the average joe works hard, saves money in that pursuit for home ownership. It’s almost impossible for that in the “New Florida”.

You really should consider bringing it down a peg and think of the “Average Joe”.

If you are the REaltor you say, and work in the upper markets, I’d have to say you are clueless as to what the working class people are dealing with, and in as much, your opinons in this regard are falling on deaf ears.

By do you notice?

May 18, 2007 8:00 PM | Link to this

Do you notice how everyone has been in a good, healty debate today? Everyone except Curious. Do you notice Curious is starting to get ignored?

His same ole’ same ole’ is getting very tired.

Curious, come back with something good on Monday. You will be welcome, no problem.

By Curious

May 18, 2007 10:16 PM | Link to this

Jeff, you old dog!

You done scored a biggun here.

Many many posts.

Big time list of losers and loquacious ones blabbing and blabbing!

Cheers !

By Ghost of a Chance

May 18, 2007 10:20 PM | Link to this

Quite the opposite, Rich R. I have seen families with no assets and 3 members working $6/hour jobs acquire attractive homes in Florida.

I have seen - and this is pretty common - Cuban immigrant couples come here with NOTHING and in no time flat have 2 jobs, 2 cars and a home.

I have talked in depth (in French) to Haitian immigrants with no physical skills and not much in the way of language skills, who have come here, found a little house in Lake Worth, and soon own the entire inventory of houses surrounding them.

I take the point of view, Rich, of the guy who has NOTHING - no cash, no credit, no assets. What does he do? How does he avoid being a renter?

People do it, Rich, every day. The first step in solving a problem is to believe you can solve it. This is where you would have trouble.

Yes, you can go to a builder accompanied by a broker, get into a property for nothing down and put several thousand in your pocket.

Yes, you can find a FSBO seller, convince him of your honesty and determination, and get title to a house with owner financing.

You are the one living in the ivory tower, Rich - not me. Yes, I have a lot of education in Math and Technology, but I also have that weakness I spoke about — excessive empathy.

I am interested in the guy who did NOT go to Princeton and who does NOT have a graduate degreelike mine . Does he give up and spend the rest of his life with whores and crack dealers as neighbors, like Prices or Curious do?

Anybody there want to give up in life? It just takes two words: “I can’t.”

When you understand in your heart what b******t “I can’t” is, then it’s time to get your a*s in gear.

By Johnny Bravo

May 18, 2007 11:30 PM | Link to this

I think I’ll go for a walk outside now, the summer sun’s callin my name. Can’t stay in the house no more, gotta get out, get me some of those ra-a-ays.

Everybody’s laughin…sunshine day! Everybody’s smilin…sunshine day!…Everybody wants-to live in Delra-a-a-ay YEH!

Who knew they had bed races in the ghetto?

By BIG ROB

May 19, 2007 9:51 AM | Link to this

I have to admit everyone is conducting themselves with a sense of maturity.This is a welcome change.

By countdown

May 19, 2007 9:51 AM | Link to this

Have cash in hand from the sale of my previous house. Will we buy in South Florida? No. Why? Lived here for a year and have formed our own opinion of the place. Love the beaches and the weather is great. But in the end it comes down to cost vs. value. We can have a superior lifestyle elsewhere for 2/3 the cost. It’s just that simple. Just because you can afford something doesn’t make it a smart decision to buy. I agree, renting is not a viable long term wealth building strategy for anyone, but in my opinion it is still better than buying in South Florida right now.

By Dilemma

May 19, 2007 11:11 AM | Link to this

Thank you, thank you, thank you.

I have read the comments on my situation many times over, and I very much appreciate it.

Rich, yes, I do get advice from trusted sources, but a good deal of knowledge can come from this blog.

I can’t thank everyone individually, but those who answered me and debated on the subject, Cw, Ghost, everyone, it was a very interesting read.

If my dilemma brought out a new sense of civility among some of you regulars, that is great. I hope it continues, because some of you, really do have some good things to say.

I am thinking of selling, and the numbers do work out for me. Believe it or not, houses in this price range are selling, slowly, yes, , but they are selling, slowly, lol.

Lantana has that small town, old fishing village charm, that is slowly attracting people. This town, years from now, will be an interesting, and probably very nice place to live in.

I will do a 1031 exchange, carefully, as it is complicated and you must do things in a perfect way, and then use the money in another real estate investment up in the panhandle. I have done my homework, and am satisfied with the anticipated results and rewards.

Again, I thank everyone. I have read this blog over the past few months and have enjoyed ALL the regulars and just some very good comments in general from many different people out there.

This county has a great many intelligent people. Palm Beach County is a wonderful place to live and I hope to keep a residence, be it full or part time for the rest of my life.

Thanks again,

Dilemma

By TO Dilemma

May 19, 2007 11:35 AM | Link to this

You’re welcome. That was a very gracious response from you. We all wish you well.

By To Rich R

May 19, 2007 1:25 PM | Link to this

I take issue with your premise,

“Take a look at any working class family in PBC who bought in the past few years and you will find that most of these families are paying in excess of 45% (and in may cases, much more) of gross earnings on housing.”

That does not seem plausible.

A family with a household income of $60,000 (two 30,000 yr job for sake of discussion) is not paying $2250 per month on housing, that is ludicrous. Anybody who is has clearly got themselves into a position that spells certain failure. You cannot spend half your income on PITA and try to live. It won’t work, at most income levels.

For the same sake of discussion, a single, young working stiff making $12 hour ($24960 yr) at a menial job cannot afford to spend $936 month on rent. Even that 25 yr old working stiff knows he can’t pull that off and gets a roomate. I did that when I was young, and prices were alot lower in those days compared to today.

On the other side of the spectrum, think how ridiculous it sounds to have a Doc making $300,000 yr to spend $11250 a month on his PITA. That is stupid and out of control, and has nothing to do with the cost of housing. It has everything to do with wants, and spending habits if that Doc does that.

Households should spend no more than 1/4 of their after tax monthly income on PITA. I’ll even go as high as 30% in this area of the country taking into account it is a little more expensive to live here than in some other parts of the USA. That is logical and cannot get you in trouble.

A family of 4 with a combined household income of $95,000, two $47,500 yearly incomes, maybe teachers for this example, should spend no more than $1900 per month on PITA. That can be done here if you buy in the price range you can afford. You may not have the size of house you would like, but neither do people in New York either. They do in Tulsa, OK and Grand Rapids, MI, but if that’s what you want, have at it.

I believe, as a few of you say, that most families today are out of control with their spending habits, agreed, but no one is that stupid to knowingly sign on the dotted line saying I can make it and still spend half my income on PITA. No way. You say most people are, I don’t even believe half are that stupid. We both agree a big chunk are, but nowhere near the percentages you say.

If you are right, god help us all, and how does our country manage to make it through the day with financial suicide built in to over half the population.

I don’t buy your premise.

By easyasabc

May 19, 2007 2:31 PM | Link to this

This is a very rare Saturday posting, but I was checking my email and looked over what was said here on the blog and wanted to make a few remarks before my Mad Cow disease make me forget by Monday ……….I beleive “Curious” was listing how much people had to have and make to get a house here…..one thing is for sure on what I hear from my Worth Ave realtor friends,….most buyers, no matter what the price range, put very little down on a house……also, most couples who do buy beyond $300k price, are professionals….double income….or own a business…D.I.N.K.’s !…..most people who come from out of state to live here full time, have cash from their home sale….and most home prices up north are way more than our home prices here…….Rich R. ….prices are “holding” now…but everything else is going up across the board….rent, gas, food, utilities, insurance, taxes…..just like in the Carolinas, or out in Colorado, or New York or in California…..yes, as we speak….prices are going up……median prices here will also in the months to come…..there will be no 50-0% drop….mortgage companies and banks will go broke….and that will not happen….. ..If prices do fall more, (anohter -6%) then it will be across the board in every state….including the Carolinas…..all based on lack of jobs and if the economy goes south (DOW would have to be around 9,000)…I do see the DOW going back to 11,500 someday…………….lets do the math……last month there was 800 + sales…..we have 8,000 realtors here…..gee, realtors not making money, but still paying their brokers their office fees !……..Even at the height of the real estate boom….most realtors were making around $30,000 - $35,000 a year….Can you imagine what they are making today !!!!!…………….the reason no one is swearing at anyone here is that your doctors is giving all the ones who are in a state of panic these days (realtors & brokers), a new pill …..I call it the “Happy Pill”…..these medical companies are the ones who are really making the money these days…..having a good Medical company stock portfolio is where the money is at….all you hippies from the 60’s who took drugs illegally, now need drugs to offset your chemical balance problems as you reach your golden years…..As I always said, “Once a doper, always will be a doper”…….Madmax is still jealous I made it with jewish women in my life…..he just wanted their phone numbers…..Everyone can see through that Ghost that he is breaking down mentally …… I love jewish people, especially jewish women……Madmax, maybe you should hang out a jewish singles dance in Boca….or go to Temple and find yourself a nice jewish girl………..get ready for another summer war in the Holy Land…..I love those pictures of I.A.F. missles hitting Hamas in their cars along the highway…….You know, the Gaza Strip has so many great features to it for real estate…..if the the terrorists spent money on building resorts and casinos instead of buying guns and bombs….they would not have to live in the garbage dumps that is around them……….BYW, that garbage hill near the Sawgrass & the Turnpike is getting higher and higher…maybe next winter, they can open a ski-lift for the New Yorkers who brought their skis to Florida !

easyasabc

By A descent family man who happens to sell real estate for a living.

May 19, 2007 3:12 PM | Link to this

I am appalled at some of the things people are saying on this blog. Most of you do not understand my profession and my duties to buyers and sellers (which is to make a transaction happen so everyone can move on with their lives.)

There may be some bad apples out there in the RE profession, just like any other profession, but to stereotype me as a bad person and a scumbag, or whatever other name you can give me is….juvenile….ignorant….mean spirited…and completely innappropriate.

I think that all this anger is coming from ignorance. Not in the name calling sense, but in the literal meaning of the word. You are simply uninformed about RE in general. Yes, most have you have bought your own home, sold a home, etc…but that does not make you an expert on the process or the market. People hire RE professionals because we do this every day of our lives and we have the knowledge and ability to sell your home. It angers people when they have to shell out 6% out the closing table in RE commission, and that anger is being spewed out on to this page in the form of name calling and personal attacks. To try to fully educate you on why you should hire a Realtor, and why that 6% is usually a wise choice (Realtor assisted sellers typically get approx 14-16% more money for their homes than FSBO’s) as well as show you all the expenses incurred by Realtors during the homes selling process would probably be an exercise in futility. It pains people to pay money for a service they think they don’t need, yet most cannot do without.

Look, if Realtors were so useless, and we didn’t expedite and coordinate the home selling process, nor help procure qualified buyers for sellers, then we would all be out of business. Just like Travelocity and Expedia killed the Travel Agent profession, the internet will do the same with the RE profession….wrong.

We have jobs because people need us and I’m sorry if you think i “make too much money.” Who are you to tell me how much money I’m allowed to make? I work longer hours than most people and I never truly get a break. My cell phone rings even when I am on vacation, or having dinner with my family….but thats the life I chose, and I’m allowed to enjoy the rewards as well as the inconveniences.

One more thing. The market has tanked over the last 2 years. People who bought in 05 are in really big trouble if they need to sell. Its not the Realtors fault, its not the builders fault, its not the governments fault.

No one can control the market. The market controls itself. We cannot have times of wonderous prosperity and not deal with the effects of recession.

If you bought a 2800sq/ft home in a questionable area for $700k in 05-06, with the intention of flipping it for big bucks, then you are in a very bad position right now…unless you are very wealthly and can afford to float the home for the many years it will take to regain its value. Rental prices are down, the home may well be worth $200k less then you paid and for that I give you my sincerest condolences. A lot of good people are in a world of hurt right now. You have two options: 1)lock the door and slip the key under the mat. Yes, your credit will be destroyed….but that can be rebuilt with some hard work and planning. 2) Keep paying that mortgage for 5,7,maybe 10 years. But it could drastically lower your standard of living, eat up all the equity you have in your current home, and ultimate bankrupt you anyway.

Alright, I’ve said enough. On with the name calling.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 19, 2007 3:21 PM | Link to this

Ezsy - Thanks for the advice, but what could someone tell you? Go to a barnyard and find a nice goat for mate?

Too bad you had to ruin it, Dork, you almost had an interesting post up till then — not rambling gibberish per your usual.

By To descent

May 19, 2007 3:27 PM | Link to this

What does descent mean?

By average joe

May 19, 2007 4:02 PM | Link to this

Easy,

For the purpose of this question, assume that you are the average employee (and I realize how no one here likes to be average) who works for the typical employer. If your pay is only being increased annually by 3% to 5% and suddenly inflation (rent, gas, utilities, insurance, taxes, etc.) increases to well above that level, where does the extra money come from to pay for higher house prices? Sure, you can ask whatever price you want, but that doesn’t mean others can or will pay it. The mostly likely outcome is that housing prices, exluding the upper end of the real estate market, stagnate over the next several years. If you rule out the choice of taking a second or third job, winning the lottery, or receiving another type of financial windfall, the typical person has a finite amount of money with which to cover all of the bills and/or save a little.

I believe the area has reached the point, or will soon do so, where employees/employers slowly begin to depart the region for lower cost places. Yes, I know it’s cheaper compared to Hawaii, CA, NY, and the northeast, and Chicago, but compared to much of the nation, it’s pretty expensive.

By BIG ROB

May 19, 2007 4:14 PM | Link to this

Decent man $200.000 from $700.000 is aprox 29% off,is this what you are telling us.Please be decent and respond.

By BIG ROB

May 19, 2007 4:15 PM | Link to this

Decent man $200.000 from $700.000 is aprox 29% off,is this what you are telling us.Please be decent and respond.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 19, 2007 4:27 PM | Link to this

Decent -

I will start the name calling. How about “Phony”?

How could you as a Realtor not know that cost of housing is rapidly rising in Palm Beach County? Here is how the Sun_Sentinel put it:

“Housing is the other culprit. Despite the sales slowdown, the housing index, which includes rent, is up 5.3 percent on an annual basis, compared with 3.4 percent in the rest of the nation.

You also seem to have an extraordinarily pessimistic view of real estate ownership, for a Realtor.

I think you are working for the other side; you are a Faketor, not a Realtor.

By to descent guy

May 19, 2007 6:28 PM | Link to this

descent guy, (your spelling),

I have to believe Max on this one. My girlfriend is a realtor, and the way you talked, you’d be thrown out of her office parties talking like that.

You sound the doom and gloom. Even if it is, my gf says that is cardinal rule numero uno that you just broke.

My bet is you are ab out ready to have your midlife crisis.

Go take out a heloc and buy a vette.

You’ll be broke, but at least you’ll enjoy the wind rushing through what’s left of your hair.

Cheers!

By Curious

May 19, 2007 6:47 PM | Link to this

How can the average realtor in Palm Beach County afford the average Corvette if he has no hair and he moping around the house in the middle of a Saturday afternoon.

Isn’t that prime time for Saturday tire kickers you have to drive around all day listening to that constant whine of

“Bruce, I thought you told me we’d look a houses with granite countertops and thos refridgerators that look shiny and silver, waaahhhhhh”

Then, the lapdog Bruce tells you to

“Step it up bub, my fiance knows what she wants, and you ain’t deliverin’, man. I’m not about to shell out a 1% down payment with my 620 credit score on that last house you showed us. Who do you think we are? I make $49,000 and she makes $51,000 and we want that $750,000 house for $550k man. I know what I’m talking about, my man the mortgage broker told me so, and I’m only paying him 5 grand built into my mortgage to have him do me right. So far, you haven’t done Jack for me, man! Step it up!!”

By The Beak

May 19, 2007 7:49 PM | Link to this

The 628 and 647 posts had to be from Signed.

I think I know Bruce. What’s worse is, you should see the princess. Can you say the last place finisher at The Preakness?

By Curious

May 19, 2007 10:50 PM | Link to this

Alexandra, Jeff, Linda, sys admins, et al.

I participate in and contribute to several Internet forums.

This is the only one where someone can usurp a name, though it has already been established by another.

I think this is a serious flaw that needs to be corrected – especially in a news journal hopefully avowing accuracy.

What sayeth thou?

By Curious

May 19, 2007 10:54 PM | Link to this

Alexandra, Jeff, Linda, sys admins, et al.

I participate in and contribute to several Internet forums.

This is the only one where someone can usurp a name, though it has already been established by another.

I think this is a serious flaw that needs to be corrected – especially in a news journal hopefully avowing accuracy.

Just got a message that this post could not be accepted since I have posted too often in a short period of time. Big laugh, and I rest my case.

What sayeth thou?

By Rich R

May 20, 2007 9:55 AM | Link to this

Very rare Sundy post from me, but after reading above since Friday afternoon, I felt it a good time to post.

First and most importantly, I’d like to compliment EVERYONE for being civil and thank goodness the end of the outbursts and name calling.

But I do have to say to the person who posted a response to my post about many families paying in excess of 45% of earnings on housing. YOU ARE TOTALLY WRONG.

You quote allot of numbers and your numbers are the guidlines in which folks should use in aquiring housing. Unfortunately, it just don’t work out that way anymore.

To use your example of the two teachers making about $100,000 combined, with FHA guidelines, this family should spend no more then $34K per year on housing, and that’s true.

The bad part is this almost impossible to achieve that with the current market conditions. I will say it again, it’s not necessarily the cost of the home, it’s the total carrying costs of the home.

$34K = $2,833 per month, If you take out for Homeowners Insurance, Taxes, HOA fees, you are looking at about $1,800 - $2,100 for PI. (I am being very conservative).

I really don’t feel like running am sched’s for this, so folks help me out with tighter number, Max manybe….

I guess for a fixed rate 30 year (anything else is just stupid in my world) you can count on what?,,, $7.50 per thousand, per month for the principle and interest. $1,800/$7.50= $240K. That don’t buy much of a house anymore.

If you had the full 20% downpayment, you could get a better rate, but since most want to put Zero or 3% down, you have a higher rate, and then there’s the PMI.

I feel my numbers are very conservative and don’t really touch on the buyers closing costs, more accurate insurance costs and then the taxes.

Either way, to stay within the FHA guidelines you are living next to crack houses, and gangs.

Most don’t want that, and will belly up with much more then the FHA guidelines suggest.

Much More, and they do everyday.

By Rich R

May 20, 2007 10:09 AM | Link to this

My numbers above, are for GROSS WAGES.

I am not sure if the FHA Guidlines work on Gross or Net dollars, as I’ve never had to deal with this personally.

Even when I did have a mortgage on my homestead, I don’t think I ever went over 15% of earnings for housing. And even on my first home many, many, many years ago (boy I’m starting feel old), I put 30% down.

Max, any mortgage person, please help me out with this.

By Descent and Curious #1

May 20, 2007 11:09 AM | Link to this

I am just appalled. It’s an abomination. Why I never… Hmmph. What a vile group of savages…..I’m going home.

Hmmmph.

By TO RICH R

May 20, 2007 11:22 AM | Link to this

Rich R, I disagree with you. Our household income is $101k this year, and we do not spend $34,000 per year on housing. Not even close. I’m sure you were not including utilities, but when I even added in telephone, electric, cable, etc, it still doesn’t even come to $29,000.

Why? I didn’t buy something I couldn’t afford and I put 20% down in 2004. I could have bought a larger home, but I didn’t want the struggle. If other people do it and want the struggle, that is their business and more importantly, their choice.

You cannot say that the majority is spending the kind of figures you are talking.

You are way off base.

Side note, anyone who would put 3% down on $500,000 home ought to have their head examined. They can’t afford it and are only fooling themselves. They need to save more for a larger down payment, and buy only when they have the money, not just when they have the desire.

You are making a case for irresponsiblity and seem to be defending it. I won’t.

By north palm beach seller

May 20, 2007 12:21 PM | Link to this

My realtor have told me that most buyers do not even have five-thousand dollars to put down for a contract. Everyone wants one-hundred percent from the mortgage companies. I do not see prices falling anymore. If your paycheck cannot let you live here, then it is time for you to seek housing in some other area. Do not blame homeowners who are trying to get what is fair market from their investment. The realtor from yesterday, is in a panic mode and will be out of here before I am. No worries here, no mortgage payments, no need to sell.

By Rich R

May 20, 2007 1:02 PM | Link to this

That’s nice to here you are spending less the $34K.

If only more people were like you, perhaps none of use would need to be here.

The problem is the people who what to keep up with the Jones’s. The wage earners that find the need to run to Starbucks twice a day, Lease the BMW’s, pay $500 for a Coach purse.

Just remember, the Jones’s are broke too.

By Rich R

May 20, 2007 1:06 PM | Link to this

You must be very new to this blog if you think I’m defending that madness.

I have NO mortgage, Buy my cars cash, and maintain a zero credit card balance always.

You should read my posts over the past year or so.

You are the one way off. Just walk around your area and I’d bet more people fall into the catagory I explain, then the one you live with.

You seem to be bright, but there are way too many people that just over indulge and I believe time will bring a big dose of reality to them.

By oh boy

May 20, 2007 1:17 PM | Link to this

It looks like rich r. is back posting again on a routine basis. I thought he was still in jail after punching that 70 year old guy in the nursing home while he was rehabilitating his broken bones after falling asleep in the dumpster and almost getting crushed to death. Get a life rich.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 20, 2007 1:45 PM | Link to this

Rich R.:

Things have changed drastically for FHA loans, with the availabitlity of DU systems (desktop underwriing) and the competitive pressures at the height of the mania.

Let me refer you to a site that has info on front end (housing expense) and back (total living expense) ratios. You will be very surprised, and I won’t blame you:

www.fhainfo.com/incomeguidelines.htm

From there you can link other informative sites like www.fha.com plus foreclosure lists, etc.

Let me note a few technical points in case they don’t pop out:

1) For each area, there IS a limit on mortgage amount, so price does matter

2) PMI is technically calledc MPI for FHA loans, and consists of a small up-front portion and a small monthly portion.

3) FHA loans have fierce competition these days from lends who are willing to underwrite LTV’s of 100% to 125%, perhaps more that I have not seen. Typically the lender will split a 100% loan into a first for 80% and a second for 20% to avoid mortgage insurance.

4) Let’s say a couple just recently bought a standard house for 400K and financed 100% at let’s say 6.5% — just over 2500/month. Their total monthly housing bill may be all of 3600 a month or so, or 43K a year. But they stand to get about 12K back in taxes if they itemize, and remember — this is with NO MONEY DOWN.

Don’t be infected with whatever mental disease convinces Fink that people are paying 6K a month to carry a 500K house for a renter - it’s just ridiculous. It doesn’t matter how many times you prove to him he has inflated the numbers by 200 to 300%, he just makes the same claim next time he posts.

The folks who make a combined 101k, put down 20% and have a total housing bill of under 29K sound very realistic to me, but I wonder if these folks even realize what they are saving (or should be) in taxes every year. It is monstrous.

5) I am sure there ARE folks in PBC g spending 50% of their income of housing, yet who are in with FHA loans. There are so many circumstances these days that will get you by with high ratios.

Things are changing, the rate of change is accelerating and even the rate at which the rate of change accelerates, is itself accelerating.

It’s difficult to keep abreast, but I always try to keep a finger on one. Or two.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 20, 2007 2:06 PM | Link to this

Small, plain (retro-styled?) SFH’s on 2nd Ave. near Glades:

From 1,250,000

Down the street, library commons, townhouses literally next to the railroad tracks, from 800,000

Over on Military trail, across from Pope Pius High School, “Villas” from 900,000 .

Over on the beach, Luxuria goes up with a Trump stamp on it, and the prices go up. 2 br now starting at 4.9 million.

At 200 East, my builder buddy now gets 900K for the 600K contracts people backed out of because of the “crash.”

Yep, those prices are plummeting like…errr…moon rockets?

You folks waiting to buy sure have those builders running scared. I would like to see your expression next year when you find out you have to pay 30% for the same unit as a result of your brilliant strategy.

By NC Bowler

May 20, 2007 2:30 PM | Link to this

For those of you interested, right now on ABC they are showing the 2007 USBC Queen’s bowling tournament live from Charlotte, North Carolina.

Take a look at some of these hotties. The blonde, I’ll bet she could beat me up

By Offer

May 20, 2007 2:40 PM | Link to this

What todo when seller’s agent doesnt present an offer to seller. List price 259,000. First offer of 230,000. Sellers agent wouldnt accept fax with offer, said we can do this on the phone. How do I know he presented offer to seller? Agent sounds like a real pos. Can they be reported to the state for not following through on offer?

By HaveNoIdeaWhatMaxIsOnAbout

May 20, 2007 3:17 PM | Link to this

More from Mr. Moose’s Neighborhood. Gosh, it seems as if Mr moose is truly living in his own world of make believe. Does anyone else see prices rising as he does, and homes selling quickly?

200E what? 200 E. Fantasy World lane? So the price rose from 600K to 900K? Give us the dates Max? When wsas it 600K, and when did it rise to 900K? And, has it sold at 900K?

Apparently all those signs and advertisements touting PRICE REDUCED!…Blowout Sale…MOTIVATED SELLER!!…NO CLOSING COSTS!!…MOVE IN NOTHING DOWN!! Not to mention the plethora of stalled, half built, or cancelled condo projects up and down Palm beach county. I saw it when I lived in WPB. Now I see them all over Boynton up and down Fed Hwy. Big bold signs BEGGING shoppers to PLEASE come take a look at our NEW LUXURY TOWNHOUSES!! PLEEEEEZE!!

How about the for sale signs I saw posted on lawns for well over a year through out Flamingo Park? OVER a year. All the empty units that still plague new condo buildings all over the county?

By Ghost of a Chance

May 20, 2007 3:21 PM | Link to this

Seller’s agent is required to present all written offers unless he has been given written instructions to the contrary.

Tell Agent you are making a complaint to the Florida Real Estate Commission and will have his license if he does not present your written offer. You can also talk to the Broker of the agency and tell him the complaint will be made against his license too, since he is responsible for the actions of his salespeople.

You are very likely to get some action, even before talking to FREC.

By HaveNoIdeaWhatMaxIsOnAbout is one bitter person

May 20, 2007 3:24 PM | Link to this

HaveNoIdeaWhatMaxIsOnAbout is one bitter person.

did you pay your rent on time this month?

is your boss going to yell at you tomorrow morning the minute you walk in the door?

it sucks to be you.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 20, 2007 3:37 PM | Link to this

Have No Brains -

If I can say one thing in favor of my own posts, it is that I am extremely specific, and anyone can go and verify 95% of what I say.

If I tell you the plain-looking single family houses on Second Ave in Boca near Glades are priced from $1,250,000 - all you have to do is go there and look at the sign.

Second, I am talking about Boca Raton, not the crack alleys of West Palm Beach. It is not the same market, and characters like you, thank heaven, can’t aford to live here no matter what welfare you get or what you do.

Third, I am in the business, and I know real estate prices, whereas you don’t. PERIOD. Looking at advertisements which are DESIGNED to hook the unwary does not make you an expert.

Last but not least, you have already more than amply demonstrated that you are an idiot with no credibility, and the mountain of responses with that message to you should have given you a clue. Do you want me to paste a dozen of them, just to refresh your memory?

By Ghost of a Chance

May 20, 2007 3:43 PM | Link to this

3:24 Poster -

Did you notice what HaveNoBrains sheepishly tried to sneak in there?

All his talk about his bring landlords in Delreay to their feet was b******t.

He is living in the slums of East Boynton, I will bet you withing a quarter mile of Martin Luther King Boulevard.
Maybe he is in one of those crappy hotels on federal Hwy that cater to transients lving in the area.

It sucks to be HaveNoBrains?

LOL

Are you ever right about that!!!

By Curious' twin brother

May 20, 2007 3:50 PM | Link to this

Let us re-phrase the request by Curious…

Alexandra, Jeff, Linda, sys admins, et al.

I participate in and contribute to several Internet forums.

Shouldn’t that say….

Alexandra, Jeff, Linda, sys admins, et al.

I participate in and contribute to several Internet forums. That means I waste half my life on message boards in between my Star Trek conventions and my shifts at Burger King.

Lighten up sparky. We all know when you post.

By Realist

May 21, 2007 9:33 AM | Link to this

Max(s),

Will you admit you know and deal only in an very exclusive market? You are smart enough to know that you are in an ivory tower situation and really don’t deal in the general real estate market. I mean when is the last time you tried to sell a 3/2 in Jupiter, NPB, Acreage, Wellington, Boynton?

By Rich R

May 21, 2007 10:00 AM | Link to this

Good Morning SoFla.

Very interesting article in today’s Sun Sentinel.

“Foreclosure crisis looms, housing analysts say”

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/custom/consumer/sfl-zforeclosure20may20,0,7809624.story

By cw1900

May 21, 2007 10:27 AM | Link to this

Good morning,

Just way too many posts to go through this morning.

Quick glance shows some interesting ones.

Dilemma, right on. Good luck to you.

Max with some good info.

Rich R, my housing costs currently is 17% of our household gross income. That is PITA only, and does not include electric, satellite, water, telephone, etc. There are no helocs or any second mortgages associated with my primary res, just a simple 30yr fixed.

BTW, Rich ,that post about your friend Dean and people’s credit messes was a good read. Very interesting. We are only as good as the lowest common denominator, and the thought of irresponsible j**s’ dragging us down drives me crazy.

The best post of the weekend from what I can tell was from Curious? (Signed?) at 647 pm….”Step it up bub” Rich, is that the stereotypical boob your friend Dean was talking about and the lowest common denominator?

Differantera, yes, I agree. Common sense is easy. Life is easy nad really very black and white. People try to make the gray areas to try and impress people with how smart they think they are, to complicate matters, or make themselves a job.

The “step it bub” post highlights the differences from when you bought your first house and what is commonplace today.

Not much else going on today. Jeff, time for a new post. I’m sure it will be about the marina slips and dockominiums. All I can say is for a long term investment, obviously you cannot go wrong with good desirable waterfront property, be it raw land, or a house, or a deeded boat slip. Just be very careful in doing these deals, and that would be the kind of transaction where a very knowledgable attorney who knows that gig will be worth every penny.

cw

By cw1900

May 21, 2007 10:37 AM | Link to this

Rich R,

That Sun-Sentinel article……

“RealtyTrac of Irvine, Calif., reports that late mortgage payments and foreclosures in South Florida this year are most prevalent in the western reaches of Broward and Palm Beach counties. Not coincidentally, those were the areas flush with homes under construction and apartments converted to condos during the past several years.

Many of the people who bought in the western suburbs were short-term investors looking to “flip” properties for quick profits, said Shiela Kiniry, a Fort Lauderdale lender and state director of the Florida Association of Mortgage Brokers. Now they’re stuck with properties they can’t sell and, in some cases, wilting under the strain of paying two mortgages.

“I have to believe a lot of those people wanted to jump on the bandwagon while they still had the chance,” Kiniry said. “It seemed wonderful when they put their money down. Unfortunately, the market’s not the same now.”

Those 3 paragraphs describe the people I have been describing of late. Those are the same people who did not do their homework, jumped on the bandwagon, and thought they were investing in real estate, when in reality, they were playing an unproven speculation with money they could not afford to lose.

That scenario was destined to fail. If these same people were so irresponsible in their professional lives as they are and were in their private lives, they would be fired in 5 minutes.

Simply amazing, and as you would expect, those people will get no sympathy here from yours truly.

cw

By Rich R

May 21, 2007 10:42 AM | Link to this

A deeded Boat Slip?

Now, that’s a new one on me.

I have a 42’ sailboat, and would not even consider this. That’s just me.

In a boat slip, you get the water, no land, maybe a dock.

Just the concept scares me.

But I guess it’s just something else the flippers can destroy.

How do you have a boat slip appraised? How is the value established with no comps? Other then market forces, how is the price set? Who maintains it? Are their HOA or DOA fees? How would you be taxed with no land? No Thanks.

Too many questions.

Also, I like the ability to move my boat as I wish.

When I lived in SoFla, I had a 42’ Sea Ray and would dock it in the keys for one season, then Ft lauderdale the next, and maybe home in NPB. That’s the wonderful thing with a boat, it’s a floating condo for me.

And before Mr Jones wants to make a comment, yes, I bought it cash, no financing.

By cw1900

May 21, 2007 11:16 AM | Link to this

Rich,

That comment was in reference to the article in today’s Post entitled, “Investors moor hopes to boat-slip sales, rentals”. It’s on the front page written by Lori Becker.

It’s interesting article. There is a legitimate market, but I do see ways that it could be full of fraud and buyer bewares, etc, and with anything else, if the sheep are running full steam ahead, you probably want to head in the other direction.

cw

By Rich R

May 21, 2007 11:33 AM | Link to this

Thanks CW,

After I sent the post in, I found the article.

I guess it could be a good idea, but still scares me.

The one good thing is the simple fact that most folks that own large enough boats to consider this, SHOULD be smart enough to fully scrutinize the offering. Much differnt then the Residential RE market where many if not most of the activity is undertaken by people with little or no understanding of the RE world.

By WAKE UP

May 21, 2007 11:53 AM | Link to this

Morning all - I just wish the “experts” would make up their minds - here’s one from sun sentinel today Home sales down in 1Q, realtors group says worst declines may be over
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/realestate/sfl-0515homeprices,0,1536493.story?coll=sfla-busrealestate-headlines

By Rich R

May 21, 2007 12:11 PM | Link to this

You would never know there was a housing slump living in NC.

The news over the weekend was talking about how home sales surged from the same time last year and also talked about homes increased 11% in the Metro Raleigh area for the same period.

I do notice alot more out of state tags on the roads then even a year ago.

But, as I’ve been saying for a long time now, the average joe, with the average income, can afford the average home here. I guess the word is spreading fast.

There is an inbound migration taking place as people from all over the country are being priced out of their local market.

There was an article in one of the local papers recently talking about young adults from the NYC and Long Island region has thrown in the towel and just gave up in their pursuit of the American Dream there and just leaving in Droves.

I guess in another 10 years or so, NC will be like SoFla is now, over crowded and such.

I guess my next stop will have to be Wyoming… LOL

Actually, I’m thinking of a condo in Costa Rica….LOL

Sorry for the typo’s I am listening to Rush and everytime he mentions “Barack the Magic Negro”, I just bust up laughing.

And they fired Imus…

By easyasabc

May 21, 2007 12:15 PM | Link to this

Time for a new story !

I laughed at the Carolina bowling remark….

There is no such thing as an average guy in Palm Beach anymore…..there are only the rich and the poor…..the owners or the renters……or I as always have said…The Haves and Have Nots…..

Rich R, a boat captain ?????…..That must be the largest vessel on any Carolina lake….Captain Rich, Do you rent you sail boat out for swinger parties ?…Do the Carolina Panthers rent your boat out for pre-season parties?????…Do you fly the Confederate flag on it???….or the Jolly Rodgers flag???

I saw something interesting about immigration here in South Florida….half of the Brazillians, and Hatians are illegals here….and almost everyone from Jamaica is illegal….ya mon !

I am seeing too many North Carolina car tags out there in the past few weeks in South Florida….what happen, did the pie factory close down in Raliegh????

Only 11 more days until Hurricane season starts….hoard the bread, we are all going to die!!!!

Richardson is in the race for the White House ……a very good smart guy…..will he win ??????….he needs more illegals in this country to have him get into office……Jimmy Carter telling us that GW is the worst president….Gee peanuthead, who do you think he replaced as the worst president in history????? ……..what we need in this country is a real smart honest guy…..somebody like good old Abe Lincoln…..one of the best Jewish presidents we ever had for this country!

easyasabc

By Rich R

May 21, 2007 12:35 PM | Link to this

I’ll tell you why you see allot of NC tags down there Easy. That’s a simple one.

NC has the lowest Car Insurance rates in the country and it seems that people from all over the country come here and register their cars, tell the insurance company they live in NC, get the very low rates and then drive home.

Recent story on the news stated that 38 cars were registered to one 2 BR home down by the coast. It turned out that all of them were from the NYC area. BUSTED.

By Rich R

May 21, 2007 12:42 PM | Link to this

Ok, now I am very confused. All of this talk about lowering RE taxes, even the special session for June.

Perhaps somebody can explain this article in today’s Sun Sentinel.

“After promising cuts, legislators actually hiked property taxes in spring session”

Here’s the link:

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-ftaxincrease21may21,0,777672.story

By Boater

May 21, 2007 1:31 PM | Link to this

I fly the flag of Italy, so everyone thinks it’s a garbage scow and stays out of my way.

By easyasabc

May 21, 2007 2:36 PM | Link to this

Then all these NC tags I see here in South Florida are really illegal Carolina half-backs who are doubling back for our way of life here…..I could understand that it is hard to find a good bagel shop in Raliegh or in Charolette, or maybe it is a b***h to get over to the outer banks during the weekend and they want to to return here…….I bet these NC half-back fakes are also dipping on both ends for food stamps and other welfare benefits…..I think we need to stop all NC tag cars heading back into our state…I would only allow good looking NC women, cars and trucks shipping fireworks to us or NASCAR drivers heading towards Daytona……I wonder if Charlie Crist is both the Gov. here and in NC ?????….btw, anyone see that hot blonde that hangs with our Gov. ???? do you believe they are a couple? Neither do I………

Talking about having so many people in a house…..I was told that many of these imported govt. workers they have down in the county building, that come from India, Pakistan and several other terrorist label nations, all live together in three bedroom homes in Wellington and out in Abacoa……one house has 18 or 22 people living inside…..they have their realtives working at the 7-11’s during the night shift so they can rotate the people out of the beds……they don’t own these houses, just rent them out….can you imagine trying to sell these houses later on !!!!

For the last time, there will be no real tax relief…..the politicians screwed you over to get your vote……

Trump got fired !….I tell you how that happen….one word….IVANKA !…what a sour face b***h she is….she brought that show to a halt….and her brother, Donald Jr., is a weasel……..Ivanka is nothing like her mother…..who has class and style…..besides, Trump got nasty to people who should have been treated as professionals in their career…..if Ivanka wants a career in showbusiness, she should try the Gold Club down in Broward…

Time for a new story…..234 postings is really enough for this topic……whatever it was.

easyasabc

By Carolina Gal

May 21, 2007 2:54 PM | Link to this

easyasabc - I hope you enjoyed you Haitian Flag Day Celebration in Delray on Friday.

Or were you to scared to go?

By Ghost of a Chance

May 21, 2007 3:49 PM | Link to this

RECORD PRICES AGAIN?

It’s always a little quiet here as we wait for the monthly FAR figures. Any guesses to what the median price will be for a SFH in PBC?

You doomers had better be praying for a BIG drop, and here’s why:

If we stay flat at 375,100 from March to April, we are slightly ahead of April 2 years ago, and a scant 3% behind April 2006. In other words, a little blip of 3.1% will put us back to RECORD PRICES for April of any year on record.

HUH? WHAT? But the Bubble, the Crash, the the the wind the empty shcool chairs….!

It gets really good by May. If we are up 4.3% by then, it will mean prices have been flat for May - barely changing - across May of 3 years, despite any delusions you have about a bubble.

If I have some time tomorrow or soon, I will show how our perceptions, aided by reporters who majored in Journalism rather than Business, created a “bubble” out of a short lived (about 8 weeks) spurt in house prices.

I will also discuss how the hundreds of thousands of Palm Beach homeowners telling themselves “I could have gotten 80K more for my house if I had tried to sell then,” are mostly kidding themselves - -EVEN IF THEIR NEIGHBOR DID GET 80K more.

I’ll explain how 200,000 or so Palm Beach County homeowners CAN be wrong.

By GG

May 21, 2007 4:20 PM | Link to this

After promising cuts, legislators actually hiked property taxes in spring session.

The Florida Legislature ended its annual session without achieving its No. 1 goal: reducing property taxes. Legislators did, however, vote to increase property taxes by $546 million.

By WAKE UP

May 21, 2007 4:52 PM | Link to this

Everyone should take note how carefully the legislators tip toe around the fact that they want to reduce your property taxes without changing what’s collected for the schools. As the aricle in Sun Sentinel points out they are actually raising the counties school taxes….

By To Maxi the Debonaire

May 21, 2007 5:16 PM | Link to this

Hey Maxi, my silly friend, if prices stay the same from last month we are 11% from the peak, and at least 15% off the peak when you consider inflation at 3%.

And don’t forget the number of sales. Its basic supply/demand my simple magnamimous, debonaire, well-built, wealthy friend (giggle), higher end is selling, so its skewing the median.

Seriously Max, why do you even try when you so regularly get trounced? Keep it up though, you are amusing, in a laught at, not a laugh with, way.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 21, 2007 5:42 PM | Link to this

To mentally retarded high school student at 5:16 -

The “peak” as you call it was nothing but a couple of thousand people running around trying to get houses that didn’t leak after the hurricane. I helped some of these people find places, and they were willing to pay ANYTHING to the sellers. That $421.5K “peak” represents about 4 weeks and 952 houses. October had a few days before the hurricane, and hence was even less impressive. 416,500 median for a grand total of: 675 houses.

This is not a market peak. It’s an 8 week response to an emergency among a small number of people.

Any one with a brain (that excludes you) knows enough to throw out these aberrations.

Before the hurricane, in September, the median was only 400K . By December it realaxed to 408, 200. The only other months in history when the median passed 400K were June and August.

The reality is for most of the months of the year, prices have been flat for over two years.

May 2005, 390,900 -May 2006, 391,000 - May 2007 ???

June 2005 406,800 -June 2006 405,500 -June 2007 ???

July 2005 391,600 -July 2006 390,100 - July 2007?

As we speak, we are at 96% of the May 2006 median.

So where is your bubble, Shithead?

How does it feel to be so stupid? You never answer this. Do you not realize how arrogant and DUMB you are?

By Ghost of a Chance

May 21, 2007 5:59 PM | Link to this

By the way, Stupid, no one has ever “trounced” me - least of all you, who don’t even have any facts, and I have never had any reply to my challenge to find an incorrect fact that I have posted.

If I post numbers from FAR - you can go and verify them yourself. You will find I am correct, again.

So if you don’t like FAR numbers - argue with them.

By the way, using your simple-minded “supply and demand theory,” how did we get record high prices at record low or nearly record low numbers of sales?

Please explain.

By To Maxi the Debonaire Trips Again

May 21, 2007 6:06 PM | Link to this

Maxi watch the language, the language Maxi….

Of course, the mosquito buzzing around Maxi runs into a wall again.

Maxi’s figures were right. It’s all there on media.living.net

BTW that is interesting. Record high prices at drastically falling volumes. “FAR” out.

By To Maxi

May 21, 2007 6:13 PM | Link to this

Incorrect Fact #1: Debonair

Incorrect Fact #2: Magnanimous

Incorrect Fact #3: Well-built

Incorrect Fact #4: Good Looking

Incorrect Fact #5: Wealthy

Incorrect Fact #6: You mentioned your “novia”, it should be your “novio”

Incorrect Fact #7: R/E appreciated at 12% per year since the beginning of recorded time

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

By Maxi's Friend

May 21, 2007 6:16 PM | Link to this

Please Maxi, show that bad man how much money you have. That will teach him to stop making so much fun of you.

By Supply and Demand

May 21, 2007 6:30 PM | Link to this

OK Maxi, get out your crayons and work through this with me.

Make the standard L shaped chart, with the vertical axis being price from low (bottom) to high (top), and on the horizontal access the number of sales with fewer on the left and more towards the right.

Lets do the supply line first. When prices are low, you have fewer sellers. When prices are higher, you have more sellers. So your line will go from the bottom left of the chart to the top right.

Now for the Demand line. When prices are high, you will have fewer buyers. When prices are low, you will have more buyers. So draw your line from the Top left to the bottom right.

Where they meet is a good equilibrium point, where we have a reasonable inventory of homes.

Now we are off in the upper right of the chart, with high supply b/c home prices are high, but lower demand b/c people can’t/won’t pay that much for a house.

Your real question should be why the high volume during the frenzy of 04 and 05. That, my debonair friend, is the bubble. It is relatively short lived, and looks like there will still be some moderate correction.

How’s that?

By Ghost of a Chance

May 21, 2007 7:48 PM | Link to this

Mini-HAHA and other high school students: come back when you reach puberty.

See you in 10 years or so.

+++++++++++++++++

Supply and Demand:

You are not paying attention. I KNEW you were an ADD chid!

Now try once again, repeat after me: The main part of the “frenzy” in 05 was characterized by extraordinarily (at that point) LOW volume, not high, LOW volume. Contrary to everything they taught you in ECON 101.

(Of course if you knew anything about economics you could tell me several reason why the law of supply and demand would not be applied to houses by anyone but an amateur or student.)

Once again, since you are slow: we had the LOWEST volume driving the HIGHESTY prices. OK?

By Ghost of a Chance

May 21, 2007 8:57 PM | Link to this

Since “Supply and Demand” obviously is not a quick study, let’s give him a little example, shall we?

April, 2005: Median price is $372,300 based on 1,407 sales. Fair enough.

However, when volume drops by 55%, to a mere 630 houses in October, price does not decrease with volume. Instead price jumps through the roof, to a median $416,500 - quite the opposite of what our Econ 101 friend would predict.

Well, wait a minute - this must be a Maxi trick. What happens if you go forward a year?

If you go for 4/05 to 4/06, volume is again preciptously lower - 804, but price is higher, $386,500.

Well that must be a new wrinkle. How about the year before? Sorry, price rose from 4/04 $281,700 - an increase over 30%, but it took a 10% drop in volume to get there.

Ironically, much of the past couple of years is characterized by a negative corelation between price and volume, or inferred demand.

This is possible because the simplistic supply and demand rule does not apply here.

What is making prices go up is the things I have already disclosed, such as isolated need for post-hurricane shelter, and the declining dollar at other times.

By to maxi thge smart one

May 21, 2007 9:44 PM | Link to this

ok max, i’ll take you up on it.

how can 200,000 or so Palm Beach County homeowners be wrong?

By Ghost of a Chance

May 21, 2007 11:06 PM | Link to this

OK, “thge”:

This is a bit tongue in cheek, but everyone you talk to says “I could have gotten 80K if I sold my house a year ago.”

Could they have? Could we all have sold our house during, say, the spike of November, 2005?

Obviously not. First of all, the market is not such that thousands and thousands of additional homes could have been sold in a month or two, and if they had, it would have to be because people were lowering their prices. As I have shown, the months with the lowest volume produced the greatest prices.

Furthermore, we do not have the legal and financial infrastructure to carry out thousands of closings per month.

Off the top of my head, I can’t remember a month that came near to 3000 SFH sales.

So if hundreds of thousands of people are telling themselves “I should have sold THEN,” each one of them had a minute probability of accomplishing that

Maybe it was in November that everyone DID decide to try to sell. What was the result? Huge inventories, low volume and relatively high but lackluster prices.

Right now, greater traffic may still mean lower prices. However, from February to March volume rose from 560 to 725 - 30% - and prices edged up a bit. That could be a good sign.

Anyway, Folks, stop beating yourself up about how you could have gotten what your neighbor did. If all of us were trying, the chances of any specific one of us winning the sales lotto would have been small.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 21, 2007 11:39 PM | Link to this

NB above: “…could have gotten 80K MORE…”

Mea culpa

By Ghost of a Chance

May 22, 2007 12:02 AM | Link to this

BTW, before someone takes me to task, I am not trying to posit a rule of negative corelation between price and volume; this was an ironic phenomenon that came about as a result of prices continuing to rise for other reasons I have stated, while volume dwindled. Since last August, for example, we have had prices below the 400K level coupled with low volume.

Amusingly enough, however, the negative or inverse relationship still seems to work on a month to month basis. For example, a large drop in volume from 12/06 to 1/07 resulted in a large price increase, from $368,200 to $388,000 overnight.

So does this mean that the key to selling your house is lowering your price? Unfortunately, no. Once again, what works globally in the system as a whole, offers not much better chances of success for the individual seller.

By Realist

May 22, 2007 8:01 AM | Link to this

So let’s take your theorem to the next step. If only 100 high end million dollar end homes sell next month then of course the “average home” in PBC is now worth 1 million? Max my advice today for you would obtain a refund from the school who gave you an advanced math degree. If the folks out there are having a problem obtaining financing because of a tightening of the credit markets in the middle and lower price ranges, your inverse relationship continues to prove ALL prices will keep rising? So the corollary would state “as fewer and fewer people buy homes and the inventory increases prices go up”. I knew I was right you do live parallel universe. Folks, Maxi is trying to fool you into believing that because a limited amount of high end homes are selling in his ivory tower neighborhood all prices are still going up. Of course in a healthy market as the population sample size expands prices will come down. As people across the demographic and socio economic spectrum are able to participate in the market, prices will come back to balance.

By Realist

May 22, 2007 8:13 AM | Link to this

Maxi,

Sorry I missed your last post I thought you were actually trying to prove the inverse correlation was valid. However, you are wrong in trying to supplant supply and demand, as it will always bring back rationality to the marketplace.

By In Georgia

May 22, 2007 8:22 AM | Link to this

Well, I guess you could consider me a “Full Back”. After almost 30 years in SFL, I moved back up South. Developers like Divosta are no different than any other business. They go where the money is. I guess it just is not in SFL anymore.

By Curious

May 22, 2007 8:38 AM | Link to this

JOHN BURNS REAL ESTATE CONSULTING

“Message to Fed: Housing is Falling Much Faster than Reported

The housing market has softened much more than is being reported. We have been advising our retainer clients for more than one year about misleading national sales information, both with the Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales data. We are now going public with our concerns because we are concerned that policy makers are relying on national data to conclude that the housing market correction has not been severe.

Here is our support:

* Closing Data: We purchase and compile actual home closing data for approximately 181 counties across the country, which captures the counties where about 55% of the U.S. population lives and a significant percentage of all of the counties where the large home builders are active. This data shows that sales have fallen 22% if you compare sales over the last 12 months to the prior 12 months. On a straight year over year comparison, the decline is much more.

* Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Data: The MBA Seasonally Adjusted Purchase Application Index, which is a measure of the number of people filling out loan applications to buy a home, is down 18% from its peak in September 2005.1 With presumably more applications being filled out by borrowers who now have to shop around for a loan, how could sales have fallen by less than 18%?

* Builder Data: The nation's two largest homebuilders, D.R. Horton and Lennar, are reporting that orders have declined 27% to 37%, year-over-year. 2 3 D.R. Horton and Lennar have dropped prices significantly in many markets to generate sales, while the resale market has not. How could their sales have fallen more than the resale market, even if new home communities tend to be in fringe areas?

* Realogy Corporation Data: Realogy, which is the parent company of Century 21, Coldwell Banker, and ERA, participated in roughly 1.9 million brokerage related transactions in 2006 compared to 2.3 million in 2005, representing a year-over-year decline of 18% nationwide.

* 2005-2006 NAR State Data: The National Association of Realtors state data does show sharp year-over-year corrections in major states: 28% drop in Florida, 24% drop in California, and a 28% drop in Arizona. Our data, however, shows the sales have probably dropped by 34%, 27% and 38%, respectively. The national numbers include some large states where sales volumes have not corrected substantially, such as in Texas and Ohio, but we believe these markets are not very healthy for other reasons. Interestingly, our calculations were tracking very closely with NAR data through 2005, as illustrated above. We did investigate NAR methodology and have found absolutely no reason to believe that the NAR is intentionally misleading anyone, as some have suggested.

* New Home Data: The Census Bureau calculation of new home data does not calculate sales net of cancellations, and cancellations are running much higher than normal right now, which is why the sales numbers overestimate actual sales.”

By Curious

May 22, 2007 8:39 AM | Link to this

JOHN BURNS REAL ESTATE CONSULTING

“Message to Fed: Housing is Falling Much Faster than Reported

The housing market has softened much more than is being reported. We have been advising our retainer clients for more than one year about misleading national sales information, both with the Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales data. We are now going public with our concerns because we are concerned that policy makers are relying on national data to conclude that the housing market correction has not been severe.

Here is our support:

* Closing Data: We purchase and compile actual home closing data for approximately 181 counties across the country, which captures the counties where about 55% of the U.S. population lives and a significant percentage of all of the counties where the large home builders are active. This data shows that sales have fallen 22% if you compare sales over the last 12 months to the prior 12 months. On a straight year over year comparison, the decline is much more.

* Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Data: The MBA Seasonally Adjusted Purchase Application Index, which is a measure of the number of people filling out loan applications to buy a home, is down 18% from its peak in September 2005.1 With presumably more applications being filled out by borrowers who now have to shop around for a loan, how could sales have fallen by less than 18%?

* Builder Data: The nation's two largest homebuilders, D.R. Horton and Lennar, are reporting that orders have declined 27% to 37%, year-over-year. 2 3 D.R. Horton and Lennar have dropped prices significantly in many markets to generate sales, while the resale market has not. How could their sales have fallen more than the resale market, even if new home communities tend to be in fringe areas?

* Realogy Corporation Data: Realogy, which is the parent company of Century 21, Coldwell Banker, and ERA, participated in roughly 1.9 million brokerage related transactions in 2006 compared to 2.3 million in 2005, representing a year-over-year decline of 18% nationwide.

* 2005-2006 NAR State Data: The National Association of Realtors state data does show sharp year-over-year corrections in major states: 28% drop in Florida, 24% drop in California, and a 28% drop in Arizona. Our data, however, shows the sales have probably dropped by 34%, 27% and 38%, respectively. The national numbers include some large states where sales volumes have not corrected substantially, such as in Texas and Ohio, but we believe these markets are not very healthy for other reasons. Interestingly, our calculations were tracking very closely with NAR data through 2005, as illustrated above. We did investigate NAR methodology and have found absolutely no reason to believe that the NAR is intentionally misleading anyone, as some have suggested.

* New Home Data: The Census Bureau calculation of new home data does not calculate sales net of cancellations, and cancellations are running much higher than normal right now, which is why the sales numbers overestimate actual sales.”

JUST THE FACTS MA’AM, JUST THE FACTS.

By Curious

May 22, 2007 8:51 AM | Link to this

http://www.news-press.com

Bad loans saddle area banks Housing bust fuels 207 percent rise

By Dick Hogan Originally posted on May 20, 2007

Area banks are racking up millions of dollars in bad debt, thanks to the softening real estate market in Southwest Florida.

Five Southwest Florida banks had a combined $57.5 million in outstanding construction and land loans that weren’t being paid, according to records from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. for the first quarter of 2007.

That’s a 207 percent increase over the $18.7 million the same banks had a year earlier, records show. Individually, these five — Florida Community Bank, First Florida Bank, First Community Bank of Southwest Florida, Busey Bank and Riverside Bank of the Gulf Coast — had the most real estate debt that’s gone unpaid among locally based banks.

… .

The median price of an existing single-family home in Lee County has fallen from an all-time high of $322,300 to $268,000 in March, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.

Meanwhile, the number of homes on the market has quadrupled to about 15,000 as the number of single-family home sales has spiraled down — 636 in March compared with 1,084 in December 2005.

… .

JUST THE FACTS MA’AM, JUST THE FACTS

By WAKE UP

May 22, 2007 8:54 AM | Link to this

REALIST - so, just to play devil’s advocate here - if there were only 100 “low end” houses sold last month and the median suddenly dropped to $200k, would that prove that the 40% drop that everyone predicted is here and we should all dump our houses before it’s too late becaus the median has fallen (as well as the sky)???? Numbers are dangerous and you can’t have it both ways. That’s why I’ve stated many times that the median is really meaningless, it’s a benchmark and nothing more. Really, what ia a median house? how many bedrooms does it have? where is it located? There just isn’t such a place - it’s a meaningless benchmark that we’re all standing around waiting and watching because that’s what we’ve been conditioned to do…

By Curious

May 22, 2007 9:11 AM | Link to this

I am truly sorry for posting the same data twice, but I thought the second time, I was posting on another blog I participate in.

At that one, I am the poster of the week.

By To Maxi the Deboair Simpleton

May 22, 2007 9:16 AM | Link to this

Maxi, my well-built but slow friend, you said:

“If you go for 4/05 to 4/06, volume is again preciptously lower - 804, but price is higher, $386,500.” You also said: “For example, a large drop in volume from 12/06 to 1/07 resulted in a large price increase, from $368,200 to $388,000 overnight.”

Its time to sharpen your crayons, my silly magnanimous friend. You really must not understand a supply/demand chart.

The basic premise is simple: as prices rise, more people are willing to sell, and more houses will be on the market (supply increases). But as prices rise, fewer people can/will buy homes, so demand shrinks.

That is where we are at now, a huge supply of expensive homes, but low demand demonstrated by a small number of sales.

Now think what if sellers dropped their prices by $150k across the board. People would buy those houses in a heartbeat. Look at the supply/demand chart: Prices drop so demand increases, and more buyers can/will buy the homes. But how many sellers will sell for a 150k price cut? A lot won’t, so supply will shrink up.

So, silly Maxi, there is an inverse correlation between price and numbers of homes being sold.

The exception was the bubble from about 03 to 05, when speculators were going crazy. Now that’s over, and we’re back to a more traditional supply/demand chart.

Seriously, do you not understand a supply/demand chart?

By Curious

May 22, 2007 9:21 AM | Link to this

http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/09/real_estate/shiller.moneymag/index.htm

“Shiller: Mr. Worst-case scenario

Robert Shiller called the tech-stock crash just as the Nasdaq peaked. But he is also the expert on the real estate market. And where does he think it’s headed now? Uh-oh.

Money Magazine By Jason Zweig, Money Magazine senior writer/columnist May 21 2007: 3:10 PM EDT

Robert Shiller is worried about your home’s value, and that’s not good. A finance and economics professor at Yale, Shiller proved he could see a crash coming with his book “Irrational Exuberance,” which forecast the end of the 1990s stock bubble and hit bookstores in March 2000 - almost to the day the Nasdaq started to collapse.

Today, Shiller believes homes are roughly as overvalued as stocks were then and, once again, he’s worth listening to.

A research company he co-founded, Case Shiller Weiss, created the definitive index of housing prices. A newer venture, MacroMarkets, designs ways to hedge against risks like falling home values.

In short, no one else knows the history - and perhaps the future - of U.S. real estate prices better.

… . “

By FLcosts

May 22, 2007 9:22 AM | Link to this

If so many thousands of homes stay on the market unable to sell at prices nearing or lower than assesments for tax purposes, eventually a case will be made that thousands of homes are now over-assessed for tax.

The very high end may still hold assesed values, but as govt budgets for contracted pay raises, pensions, healthcare, schools, etc keep escalating, where is the revenue going to come from when many thousands of other homes must be reassessed down even as govt costs go up ?

By Realist

May 22, 2007 9:27 AM | Link to this

Selling a home is the homeowner personal policy decision. I am just point out the silly implication of Max’s discussing the apparent inverse correlation between price and volume in the current market. You and I agree the median is not a valid measure of the current marketplace. Someone would need to complete several regression analyses testing for variables such as income, area, race, credit and so on. The current sample is suspect.

By Curious

May 22, 2007 9:32 AM | Link to this

I’m sorry I have to copy and paste articles to you. It’s because I really have nothing to say and I can’t make an argument, so you’ll have to grin and bear it as I paste away my day.

I am really am trying to be liked. They like me on my other blogs.

Really, they do.

By WAKE UP

May 22, 2007 9:37 AM | Link to this

CURIOUS - are you the middle child in your family?

By cw1900

May 22, 2007 9:40 AM | Link to this

I won’t be too hard on you this morning.

To all of you thinking your government was going to be your savior and reduce your property taxes….. Well, what happened? Actually, some of you actually bought that BS hook, line, and sinker that your property taxes would be reduced to zero. Now, don’t you feel a little embarrassed that you actually believed that nonsense.

For some of you, it’s like you’ve come down with battered wife syndrome. Those of you who actually believe your government cares about you are like the proverbial battered wife who gets slapped around when Bubba gets home after a bout with the bottle at the neighborhood dive bar. He beats the heII out you, and you keep coming back for more. When asked why you keep coming back for more, you reply, “…because I love him. I need him…?”

What? No you don’t, you just think you do. Yet, you keep coming back for more abuse. Why? What is it going to take to convince you people that your elected boobs could care less about you and your plight.

Listen up, snap out of it. Your property taxes are not going to go down. Your homeowners insurance is not going to go down. Those are realities. It sucks to be us. That’s the new Florida. Deal with it.

The radiator flush will fix the problem in a few years. That’s normal. No big deal .Move on with your life. Trying to hold on to the past will only beat you. It’s not worth it.

Gasoline is double from just a few short years ago. We will have to deal with it. It sucks to be us. I don’t like it, but it’s a reality.

Life is really black and white, cut and dry.

Change or die.

cw

By toFLcosts

May 22, 2007 9:44 AM | Link to this

RE tax revs will go down for reasons other than only selling prices lower.

The huge RE taxes seasonal owners now pay (and get raised evry yr) are causing many to sell (or at least try in this glut of a mkt).

Not as many snowbirds as before are buying in SoFl anymore to replace those selling (or dying off).

SOH effect of triple RE taxes for out-of-state or other 2nd home owners, plus Ins cost mess is now common knowledge.

Seasonal rentals are dime a dozen because of glut and are easily found via net.

So if the seasonals selling do finally sell it will be more times than not to a resident who will get homestead and cap on the property.

There goes another chunk of spending money for our folks in power.

Watch your wallet !

By cw1900

May 22, 2007 10:04 AM | Link to this

Max, let’s go with Curious’ article in CNN Money. This Schiller guy says, “

Question: So how rich can you get on real estate?

Answer: From 1890 through 1990, the return on residential real estate was just about zero after inflation.

Question: Excuse me? That’s all? Hasn’t it been higher lately?

Answer: Since 1987 it’s been 6 percent [or about 3 percent a year after inflation].

Question: So real estate doesn’t go up roughly 10 percent a year?

Answer: It can’t be true that homes rise 10 percent a year. If they did, in the long run no one would be able to afford a house. “

Ok.

Let’s go with it his numbers. Max, let’s say a house in 1987 is $100,000, ok? Ok, curious, how much would that house be worth today using Shiller’s numbers? I’ll tell you.

$320,713.

Max, I’ve got another assignment for you. Tell Curious here how putting 20% down on that $100,000 house in 1987 could have made Curious here a pile of money. Imagine if our boy lollypop had 4 or 5 of them? Let’s factor in normal expenses associated with home ownership, taxes, insurance, etc, and let’s show Curious here what a nice return that would be, hmm?

Let’s be a little giddy and even show ole’ Curious here how it could be if you did the way you do, a little more risk, but less money down, shall we? Let’s blow his little mind.

Shall we? Surely.

cw

By ego check

May 22, 2007 10:29 AM | Link to this

cw1900:

Now you are smarter than the “Schiller guy”. He happens to a Professor of Economics Yale University. I will take 100 years of data over 17 years any day. How do you think the last 17 years of inflationary prices is going to revert to the mean for the next 100 years? Yes that’s right negative price growth!

By WAKE UP

May 22, 2007 10:46 AM | Link to this

How much weight do you want to put in off hand comments made by Schiller in an “interview” when he is clearly quoted as pausing to confirm that his comments are not a forecast of the market - “It seems to me…wait a minute. Please don’t quote me as forecasting the markets.” ???

By Curious

May 22, 2007 10:47 AM | Link to this

ego check,

It is only those poor frightened souls who have a weak case or none at all that stoop to cheating, taking cheap shots or squeal bungled derisions.
Sad, corrupted and pathetic minds.

However, let them enjoy their ignorant rants. I know, you know, and they know that it is not going to forestall their foreclosure experience(s).

:-)

By cw1900

May 22, 2007 11:00 AM | Link to this

Ego,

I know who Shiller is. Steady ego, don’t get your panties in a wad. I even said I will go with his numbers.

What Curious (maybe that is you) left out, was some pretty important factors. Be very careful with numbers, you can make them say anything you want. You know that.

To leave those figures out, and to say you cannot make money in real estate, is very misleading. What I am asking Max to do is to show a valid cash on cash return, and make it even more in your favor calculating risk, opportunity costs, repairs, taxes, insurance, etc.

I promise you, he will still show a very nice return on the investment.

Curious, err, I mean Ego, let’s be honest. You can’t even deny that.

Your problem with me is your problem, not mine. What you perceive as ego is really just confidence and stability, and for some reason, that bothers you. Not all of us will face foreclosures, and that also bothers you. Deal with it.

cw

By Signed

May 22, 2007 11:41 AM | Link to this

“Mommy, why does daddy cuss the Real Deal blog on his computer and call it cw1900?

Ladies and Gentleman, Palm Beach County is burning.

Oh look out…..a knock out blow to ego check by cw1900. I’m not sure he can recover from that obvious upper cut to his already depressed mind.

Real estate is the toy department of human life.”

Signed,

Howard Cosell

By To CW

May 22, 2007 11:41 AM | Link to this

Sure, everything will work out for you if you only use the biggest boom in r/e history for your numbers.

Now let’s take your rationale and purchase those 4 or 5 homes today with 20% down. What do you get for that? Negative cash flow for an asset that is, at best, not increasing in value. Sounds like a winner idea to me.

Its kind of like looking at stocks but using only late 1990’s numbers.

What happened to Maxi, seems like he’s pouting since he was seriously trounced.

By Signed's second cousin twice removed

May 22, 2007 12:13 PM | Link to this

“This, we have to say it, remember this is just a mortgage and calculations, no matter who wins or loses. An unspeakable tragedy, confirmed to us by The Doomers on The Real Deal Blog: The Palm Beach County real estate market, outside of its high in 2005, the most famous, perhaps, of all the perceived bubbles, shot a few times in the median home price, rushed to Bubble Blogs across the land, dead … on … arrival.”

By Ghost of a Chance

May 22, 2007 12:13 PM | Link to this

TO: “TO Maxi the Debonair”:

I had fun putting the inverse relationshiop out there first, and watching idiots like you go nuts.

The fact though, that in the months that have had a CONSTANT OVERSUPPLY — and even THAT reached a fairly stable number, in half the months, movement of volume and price were negatively corelated, in the other half they appear to be positively corelated. With constant (OVER-)supply, no matter what explanation you pick for supply and demand, you are wrong about half the time.

Choose either relationship you want, I will show you very easily you are wrong about half the time.

Know why? There IS no corelation —the relationship is random. The price is shaped by time of year, currency fluctuations, pressing needs such as hurricanes for individual families, least of all by supply and demand.

Hence, a large drop in volume from 12/06 to 1/07 produces a large increase in prices.

But a large drop in volume in June, 2006 produced a large DROP in prices.

Same story going from March to April of 2006.

Same story going from August to September of 2005.

With Supply stable, half the time volume and price are positively corelated, and half the time negatively. Easy as “abc” (hee hee) to prove.

It does not matter which way you argue; you are wrong half the time.

Do you know why you are so stupid? It’s because you argue data you don’t even know.

How does it feel, once again, to be so stupid?

This was always my problem teaching Economics grad students at University. They just are too thick to understand Math.

++++++++++++++++++

REALIST - Congratulations on being a whole lot smarter than this guy, but I want you to note what I have said about the corelation, or lack of it.

+++++++++++++++++++

Will try to catch up reading the rest of the comments.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 22, 2007 12:38 PM | Link to this

Curious:

Does being a boob in pulbic pay extraordinarily well? I don’t know why you refuse to give it up.

Shiller is a snake oil salesman. No, he is NOT a Professor these days, he is a stockbroker. Or, as your article euphemistically put it:

” A newer venture, MacroMarkets, designs ways to hedge against risks like falling home values.”

He sells puts on real estate. He is part of the company. He stands to make billions of dollars if he can convince fools like you that there will be a real estate crash.

Instead of shorting real estate, like Jack McCabe hoped to, he sells options to short reale estate. Same difference.

He is just another con artist out for your dollar.

By the way, he wrote and published the NASDAQ book AFTER the crash was well under way.

It was also his bogus chart that prompted Alan Greenspan to make a fool of himself with his “irrational exhuberance” speech — whereupon stocks doubled, in spite of Shiller’s misguided pronouncements.

Shiller is certainly an American success story: a guy who becomes rich by never being right (in advance) in his life. Never!

Note to Wake: Those stats on real estate form the basis for activity like Shiller’s cons, so like ‘em or not, they mean big money.

By Kurious

May 22, 2007 12:40 PM | Link to this

I participate on many blogs.

I have something to contribute.

It’s not so bad here in Dayton.

By SoFlcosts

May 22, 2007 12:58 PM | Link to this

It will be interesting to see how our leaders make up for lower RE tax revenues. Anyone think they will cut salaries, benefits, vac, health care perks, etc ?

More sales of props bought in 2005 boom now going for lower, IF they can sell at all, than the number with higher sales price.

eg ;

8870 Oldham Way 07/05 480K ; 02/07 435K

815 Boynton Beach unit 11202 06/05 210K ; 04/07 160K

Even listings of unsolds bought in 2005 have prices dropping to near purchase prices and lower.

3041 Bollard Rd 11/05 - 385K ; on 03/08 dropped asking price to 399K.

If 2005 mkt was not a bubble at max expansion, it sure is a good imitation of one.

By Floridian

May 22, 2007 1:15 PM | Link to this

In response to Kurious in Dayton - I’m a Floridian temporarily living in NE Ohio (work related), and Ohio has got to be one of the most depressed states in the country. Blight all over the place. There’s no place like home (Florida).

By BB

May 22, 2007 1:19 PM | Link to this

I finally can agree with Maxi.

I wouldn’t put too much stock in what Shiller has to say.

Talk about falling into a pile of crap coming out smelling like a rose.

Only in America.

What is worse is that there are people who would base a major financial strategy on what he has to say.

That’s scary.

By priceeffect

May 22, 2007 1:30 PM | Link to this

Sellers are trying various moves in price, both up and down to try stimulating interest.

More have sold at a lower price than attempting to scare buyers into moving with price increase.

Buyers now have too many choices to be rushed.

Eg : this place gone full circle, after up,down, back to 359K and no action.

Price History for 99 NE MIZNER 525 - Boca Raton, FL Total Number of Properties in Villa Del Rio: 66

-Days On Market: 269 Current List Price: $359,000 Initial List Price: $359,900 (0.3% Reduction)

01/15/07 - Price Reduced to $349,000 01/31/07 - Price Increased to $405,000 04/18/07 - Price Reduced to $339,000 05/12/07 - Price Increased to $399,000 05/22/07 - Price Reduced to $359,000

By Maxi, you ain't no professor

May 22, 2007 2:35 PM | Link to this

Well, my stupid yet manganimous friend, do you really think that supply/demand has nothing to do with it.

You are really dense. Why are so many homes going unsold? Because they are priced too high. If prices were lower, more buyers would buy. That’s as simple as it gets, and that’s supply/demand.

You are too busy trying to figure out all of this other nonsense, such as hurricanes, dollar value, etc. which doesn’t really have much impact on the market. You can’t see the forest through the trees.

Maxi, by the way, tell us all the careers that you’ve had, that would be good for a laugh!

By Ghost of a Chance

May 22, 2007 2:39 PM | Link to this

priceeffect - OK, someone has finally puzzled me.

First of all, I looked that property up in MLS, and both the original list price and the current list price are 405K. I see no record of any changes.

Second, I looked for Villa Del Rio, and there is no such address in Villa Del Rio.

Third, what on earth would be the point of the constant price changes?

I have to conclude you are using an unreliable source, such as a third party website.

Care to share where you are getting the “data” on these price changes?

By easyasabc

May 22, 2007 2:40 PM | Link to this

I can see not much about nothing is being talked here….so lets see what some of you think about the following subject matter…..

Gas prices….how high will it go ????

War in the Holy Land…..you think the IDF will finish off these bad guys this time ????

New Yorkers rioting at Disney World……can we get Charlie Crist to ban New Yorkers from entering our state?????

Lake Worthless dropping their police force……but their taxes will go up !

Stock Market….How high will it go ????

Carolina Gal….how long can she stay on her knees ????

Did anyone see the story about the “Flasher” at that water park in Rivera beach ???….the joke about that is the owner of that water park is a covicted child molester up in New England……spent time in prison back in the 90’s…..check it out!

I believe ghosts should be seen and not heard…..

If you are a buyer and spending gas money to look at every property between Broward and St. Lucie….you are not really a buyer….just a dreamer.

Does anyone really care about American Idol ?…I do not know one person who watches that crap.

Time to SCREAM !….11 days left until the “Great 2007 Hurricane Season” is upon us……

The guy in Dayton missed read the Greyhound Bus desination ….he thought it said Daytona…..was planning to get a bartenders job at a Bikers Bar along the Daytona strip…..ended up serving meals at the Denny’s in Dayton off the interstate…..

Why is there no new story yet????…..Did our Palm Beach Post real estate yuppies leave the state ?????…..I know, it is Tuesday and Jeff is cutting Cerabino’s lawn…..maybe Wednesday.

Time to take a nap…..

easyasabc

By Ghost of a Chance

May 22, 2007 2:52 PM | Link to this

“No Professor” -

Yes, I was a professor, and it is unimportant whether you realize it or not, because you are nobody.

So, just explain why, with steady supply - not varying, in half the months volume and price move in the same direction, and in the other half they move in opposite directions (I am simplifying the vocabulary because you obviously just don’t get it.)

Explain what law of supply and demand gives you opposite results half the time.

Please use specific data from PBC to illustrate.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 22, 2007 3:41 PM | Link to this

BB: Only in America ;-)

++++++++++++++++

CW - I’m kinda busy. so let me just give you a near illustration.

West Boca, Country Landing, purchased 4/85 for 97K. Sold just last Thanksgiving for 362K. Meantime owner was living there on tiny mortgage. SO where’s the money?

Let’s say owner originally put down 20K (doubtful). His 20K turned into about 350K with no effort, probably tax free.

If you argue that the house is now worth 10% less, it STILL beats Shiller’s figure.

++++++++++++++++++

Well, pretty quiet now as the “supply and demand” goofballs struggle with a question they can’t answer: why with steady supply - and very little change in demand these days from month to month — why price and volume move the same way half the months, and opposite ways the other half of the months.

Here’s what you can expect. They can:

1. Ignore the question and keep chanting “supply and demand.”

2. Hurl insults at me.

3. Try to change the topic with some nonsense.

4. Question the premises.

The one thing they can not do is answer the question, because they are dead wrong, and the data speaks for itself.

By HavingFunInDelray

May 22, 2007 3:41 PM | Link to this

MaxiGhost..the master, or wannabe master snake oil salesman.  Not only does he try to convince everyone here that he is right, and everyone else is wrong, he even tries to tell me where I live and that I must be miserable.  Wow.

Well, sorry to tell you this, but I love my spacious 2brm on the 400 block of NE 7th ave in Delray. Windows on 3 sides, so much good ocean breeze circulation that I STILL havent needed to turn on the AC yet. Love those $30. electric bills! Thats one o fth eways us never do well renters stretch our dollars. Usiong fresh ocean breezes to cool our homes, as opposed to constant AC that is necessary in your gated cul de sacs out west.

I dont live in South Riviera, er Boynton max. Unlike your EASYMAX twisted wisdom that says one should buy anything they can in the worst hood just to build up equity. Despite it being impossible to sell when it would come time to move up, thus, yould be stuck with some unsellable dump in a crack neighborhood. I see what happens in Boynton because I drive or bike up and down Fed hwy frequently. Remember, I am a foolish RENTER. I prefer RENTING in a DESIRABLE location, like downtown Delray, over BUYING some crappy, over priced condo conversion in the Boynton, or West Palm hood.

Yes I rent. but I am far from miserable. This past week, I enjoyed bike rides along AIA, a picnic at Gulfstream Park, and I sat in with bands at both Bostons on the beach, and at Elwoods on Atlantic ave. Oh yes, I discovered some wonderful Middle Eastern cuisine at a little place on S. Fed near Linton. Also easy biking distance. Gas is expensive. Why drive if not necessary? Besides, I bought gas in April. I’m in no rush to do it again soon.

And no Max, I didnt say I had landlords by the b… I merely said that my landlord has a good tenant because he was smartly aware of the current market, and willing to negotiate. The other stubborn owners are still under the delusion that they can still get 2005 prices for their investment homes…waiting by the phone for no one to call. For sale or rent signs fading with age.

Regarding ownership, uhhh..unless you own your place outright, YOU also have YOUR payments to make I believe. Better hurry before the bank forcloses on your empty investment condo! How much have you paid so far on that empty, un-used investment unit, including taxes, and HOA fees if they apply??

Speaking of rent, no worries. Like I said before, I paid 6 months up front. My rent is paid until October. Ahhh…I sure dont FEEL miserable!

By Max/Ghost Resume

May 22, 2007 3:43 PM | Link to this

Max/Ghost work experience:

Age 8 - Newspaper boy, had to quit due to dog bites.

Age 15 - Stockboy, had to quit due to old farts throwing rotten fruits and vegatables at him.

Age 18 - Student, had to quit college due not to poor grades, but was caught in the media closet with a married Business professor.

Age 20 - Joined the Army. Was deployed to Germany, jumped the East Berlin Wall and fell in love with a commie. Became a card carrying member later that year.

Age 25 - Sneaked back into the U.S. along the Arizona border. Worked as a landscaper in Florida for the next several years. Votes as a liberal.

Age 30 - After being rejected several times to be a Chip n Dale dancer, went to Florida real estate school. Passed the exam on his sixth try.

Age 40 - Became a Broker, still only sells two or three trailers a year.

Present - Full time Blogger. Known as “Ghost” after having a middle-age breakdown. Votes as a conservative.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 22, 2007 3:52 PM | Link to this

“Votes as a conservative.”

HEY - Let’s not get nasty, now. I have never said anything THAT mean about anyone on this blog.

WOW, I feel sorry for YOU — I mean, after all, you’re just my biographer!!!

By Ghost of a Chance

May 22, 2007 4:19 PM | Link to this

Having Fun -

Lord knows I am for having fun (even if I am not for having Having Fun).

I am just wondering when and how you foresee accumulating anything in your life, without having appreciating assets. What’s your plan, Stan?

By C

May 22, 2007 4:31 PM | Link to this

HavingFunInDelray,

“The Worst Investment Ever By Robert Aronen May 18, 2007

THE MOTLEY FOOL - Educate, Amuse, and Enrich

My fellow Fool John Rosevear considers a house to be the best investment ever. I disagree. A house is a place to live, not a road to riches.

Think about it for a minute. What characteristics do Fools look for in a great investment? Positive cash flow, low expense ratios, low transaction fees, and historically proven returns. Using these criteria, the average house falls well short of the all-time best.

… . “

Read the rest of the story here:

http://www.fool.com/personal-finance/home/2007/05/18/the-worst-investment-ever.aspx

Cheers!

:-)

By Ghost of a Chance

May 22, 2007 4:52 PM | Link to this

The Chief Fools are another couple of snake oil salesmen, who got rich as stock market promoters — not as investors.

They have still not aplogoized for guiding tens of thousands of readers directly into financial disaster during the market debacle.

They will not even admit it.

By 99Mizner

May 22, 2007 5:16 PM | Link to this

Max, that 99NE Mizner 525 obvious s/b SE. It IS listed as 99NE on MLS 2714066

the price gyrations can be viewed at expertrealty better than ziprealty.

zip still has at 399K from 339K 05/10/07.

epert has at 359K from 399K 05/22/07.

this same apt was 405K last year, still trying to dump.

By Curious, C++

May 22, 2007 5:26 PM | Link to this

SOMEONE. HELP!

Why doesn’t this sell?

I think I have the laziest real estate agent in this area who just does not try that hard to sell my house. The previous two were the same. What is one to do?

I have a beautiful spacious new two-story on a cul-de-sac for $649,900. It is in a wonderful gated neighborhood with all the amenities. You will love the closeness of your good neighbors — their houses are 20 feet away.

It is UNDER MARKET VALUE, BELOW APPRAISED VALUE, and WELL UNDER TODAY’S MARKET.

Please call me, or follow the signs to Ant Hill Estates.

By to Curious

May 22, 2007 5:41 PM | Link to this

Curious, C, C++, whatever you call yourself.

How old are you? What is your educational background?

Be serious. I’m curious.

By BIG ROB

May 22, 2007 5:52 PM | Link to this

Jeff time for a new subject.Is this the calm before the storm?

By Maxi, you debonair fool

May 22, 2007 5:52 PM | Link to this

Maxi, let me explain to you how stupid you really are.

Supply doesn’t equal sales. Supply relates to the numbers of homes on the market. Your FAR numbers therefore doesn’t have the relevant data. You could always look at IPRE for the treasure coast market.

Demand can be measured by the number of sales at various price points.

Seriously, you can’t be this stupid, can you?

And by the way, if we shouldn’t listen to Shiller b/c of his bias, why should we listen to you?

By Curious

May 22, 2007 6:05 PM | Link to this

to Curious,

You seemed to have missed my comments about “taking cheap shots or squealing bungled derisions.”

Enjoy!

:-)

By To Signed

May 22, 2007 6:41 PM | Link to this

Very clever. I got it.

Keep it up. Your subtle posts make you one of the brightest on this blog.

I’m a Signed fan.

;-)

By Ghost of a Chance

May 22, 2007 7:32 PM | Link to this

Pimpleface -

So you chose attack the premises, along with a few of desperate insults.

But you are just showing the world how stupid YOU are. I HAVE the local supply data. It’s called MLS. You don’t. You haven’t the slightest idea of what you are arguing, you a*****e.

And you have still not explained how with CONSTANT supply and CONSTANT demand (or lack thereof), Volume and Price reverse their relationship half the time.

You can’t explain it, shithead, because you are wrong. Supply has been STEADY as the relationships reverse and reverse again, I have the data, you don’t.

SO unless you have some type of proof, its time for you to put away your ECON 101 shibboleths and shut up.

If you want to write again, include the SPECIFIC supply and price data you are basing your argument on — don’t tell us go see some web website.

Real numbers, idiot. You can’t do it.

By Max has a point

May 22, 2007 7:49 PM | Link to this

I see many of you post new articles and link to websites using that as your only argument.

That doesn’t show us anything.

Please do not paste articles or just links.

Using them to back up your post that you thought out is one thing, but to tell us to go to a website and read someone else’s work shows us your lack of debate skills.

Good point, Max.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 22, 2007 7:53 PM | Link to this

99MIZNER —

Yes, I see what you mean about “SE” vs. “NE”. I’ll buy into that.

But there is no way that can be in anything called Villa Del Rio. I still think that data from before has to be wrong.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 22, 2007 8:09 PM | Link to this

“Max has a point”:

Let me cleave to your words right now, and save Pimpleface the trouble of quoting the IPRE data he is touting.

According to IPRE, comparing FEB 06 to FEB 07, supply rose accross the board, with increases in supply of 11% to over 100% (If you like I will state exact figures for each IPRE price range).

Did prices fall because of that increase in supply? No - they rose. IPRE has average price in FEB 06 of 390K, average price in FEB 07 of 424K.

Large rise in supply with large rise in prices, according to the very price and supply data Pimpleface has been touting in writing.

Where do you go from here, Pimpleface?

By NOT99Again

May 22, 2007 8:43 PM | Link to this

99 NE Mizner is the bldg maxi choose to prove ever rising prices a while ago.

here is his post :

“By maxmoose03

November 25, 2006 01:27 AM | Link to this

WHERE IS THE 16% UP?

WHERE IS THE 16% UP?

Okay folks, Uncle Moose is treating you too well, but here is a building I did the arithmetic on. This was a pain in the antlers, I want you to know. This is 2005 vs. 2006 year-to-date.

Address: 99 NE Mizner Blvd. Boca Raton

Apt size: 1310 sq ft

2005: 34 sales (+2 unknown mid-year)

Average: $446,294.11

2006: 10 sales (+1 unknown)

Average: $567,000

UP UP UP UP UP 27%

Please visit www.pbcgov.com/papa and verify

Same story everywhere in downtown Boca. “

Someone named max as owner listed on Papa for #525 @ 99 NE Mizner.

Since then #321 sold for 390K (03/07), was listed originally @ $499,900

Others from that post have dropped asking prices, evidently not quite enough to sell.

eg : PH 934 was listed @ $859,900 now listed @ 705K.

By PalmBeach

May 22, 2007 8:47 PM | Link to this

Why the complaints about renting? Unfortunately, with prices as they are, it makes sense for many “average” buyers. I recently moved back to the South Florida area after graduate school in Tallahassee, where I bought my first home at age 22. I signed a contract to build in late 2004, moved in summer 2005, and sold April 2007 for 55k more than I paid for it. A great investment decision, but I was lucky. Soon after I sold, the neighborhood was flooded with several townhome resales for sale STARTING at prices several thousands less than I sold mine for.

Still, since I’ve returned to South Florida, I will not buy now in Palm Beach County. I’m renting a condo in Cityplace while I figure out where in this county of extremes I would like to plant roots for significantly more than a year and a half (and while I am still young enough to enjoy that “transitional neighborhood” excitement). Just starting out, I wouldn’t want to be strapped with a mortgage on what similar condos in this building are selling (rather, attempting to sell) for ($450k+), and I refuse to enter the Palm Beach County property ladder in some 1970s cedar-shingled quad-townhome community or busted up condo conversion. Call me a snob, but I refuse to go tooo far downmarket and I’m not looking to “hold onto” anything for years uunless I can get out for a decent profit within 3-4 years. I just don’t see that happening again anytime soon. The past 4 years were an anomaly not likely to repeat anytime soon.

In the meantime, however, I can play a game called “Pretend I have a mortgage, insurance, HOA, and taxes” bill and even being lazy without investing the money, sock away $1000/month+ under the mattress and realize a “profit” of almost 15k a year.

Still, I go back and forth between continuing to rent or to buy within the next year. As long as I continue to see home prices falling or remaining flat in my target area of Jupiter/Palm Beach Gardens, I won’t buy yet.

Besides, if I bought another townhome in Abacoa, for example, I doubt I would realize 25k appreciation on my investment in 2 years, even with Scripps moving in next door.

But anyway, since this article was about Divosta, I toured the new Divosta development out there this past weekend. 2.5 bedroom (because really, the third bedroom is more like a decent sized walk-in closet) for almost 400k? I don’t care if your “lush waterways” ::coughdrainageditchescough:: DO beckon residents home each day! Sorry DiVosta, but paradise isn’t worth THAT much, especially when comparable Abacoa resale townhomes are going for about 100k less. Thanks for the free shoe polish and popcorn though!

By plotThickens

May 22, 2007 9:42 PM | Link to this

Maxi possibly linked to 99 Mizner by someone ?

Hmmmmm, that NE, SE “error” on listing is same error maxi made back in Nov. in one of his posts.

maxi did seem to want to avoid discussing 99 Mizner today.

Could maxi be caught yet again ?

By Chip Douglas

May 22, 2007 11:19 PM | Link to this

COme on Post Writers…Where’s the new blogs? This one is getting OLD. It takes too long to scroll past all of Max’s delusional nonsense, down to my witty comments.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 23, 2007 12:58 AM | Link to this

Back then the original “Max” was a group of 4 to 5 people (mostly 4).

I did not do that anyalysis, personally. I have a pretty good idea who did.

And I am not the owner of that house (or condo unit).

AND … I had nothing to do with it when “priceeffect” started talking about it.

So unless you believe that priceeffect picked one house out of several hundred thousand in PBC because of a price change and it just happened to be mine, there is no connection to me.

If you DO believe it, I have some property in North Carolina to sell you immediately.

BUT - If anyone out there is willing to sign it over to me, I would be happy to accept it :-)

Call me at my office, you all know where to find me.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 23, 2007 1:26 AM | Link to this

By the way, after my good friends Rich R. and John K. put up links to my web site, showed properties I owned in Wellington, and gave the number to my office, what kind of numbskull still has to speculate on who I am?

I take enough flak because people believe I accept business from the blog - which I don’t.

One other thing. As a broker, I can absolutely guarantee you that if I listed property I owned, I would know my own address. I own a lot of properties, but not so many I can’t remember the address of each.

The person who wrote in the blog last year obviously looked at the same wrong info as you are. There is no mystery.

Finally, instead of everyone playing Magnum PI, why don’t you just CALL the listing agent with any questions? Is that too difficult to imagine?

For some people here I am sure it is.

By Rich R

May 23, 2007 7:56 AM | Link to this

Hey Max,

I’d like to once again remind you.

I NEVER posted anything identifing you.

I think that was John, (Easyasabc).

I just laughed about it.

Please check the archieves and say you’re sorry.

:)

By WAKE UP

May 23, 2007 8:29 AM | Link to this

Max - unfortunately you’re right about those figures - it just irks the hell out of me to see realtively meaningless data used in such a way. I know that we need benchmarks to conduct business…it’s just way too easy to twist numbers.

Way off subject, but has anyone ever seen a pallet of $100 bills? A nice 3’x3’ cube comes out to $50M - it’s quite a sight to see a room full of these.

By 99averages

May 23, 2007 8:29 AM | Link to this

Who cares who owns what in 99 Mizner. Nice bldg, but if those two sales are all they were able to do in over a year it is just a reflection of “Same story everywhere in downtown Boca. ” to quote max.

How about a re-analyses of 99 Mizner ?

New average selling price since max got 567,000, now 482,000. ?

By easyasabc

May 23, 2007 9:58 AM | Link to this

No new story yet !…..You think they had layoffs at the Palm Beach Post !…..Don’t you love when all these newspeople tell us about the upcoming Hurricane Season?…..news is slow now, but will heat up fast later on…….I bet the reporters are on other very important stories…..Madmax the Broker is worry about something?????….who is john????…was he an ex-employee to Max???……..You think it will be a very long hot summer here ?????…..Feds are in town….start shredding those mortgage fraud documents…….whispers in the legal hallway is saying that many will go down in the weeks to come…………if the “have nots” wants to turn Palm Beach County into one large rental unit, that will make many landlords happy here……which also can turn into a death card for the business industry……when rental property outnumbers homeownership, many professional business corporations will not come here to expand…..it tells them that this area has people who will not invest into the area for homeownership…so why should they invest!!!!!….but you will have your typical $10 jobs for the “have nots” to survive on…….this is why the state will have to promote homeownership here…..Govt. has to bite the bullett to reduce taxes….so far, we see the insurance industry have not and homeowners are…..look at prices in other places….here, next county over or the next state over……prices are still going up…..people who are moving down here from the north, are the ones with the higher sold prices who are coming here to buy…….or people here can wait it out until we see $400k + median price as Madmax and others have said…including myself……sooner or later, it will happen……in the meantime, if you rent, don’t be late with that check!

easyasabc

By Curious

May 23, 2007 10:38 AM | Link to this

Here’s an interesting story from Daytona Beach and probably being replayed in this area thousands of times.

The real eye-opener is the current $6000/month loss on real estate “investments” these people are having to endure.

“Retirement interrupted One couple mapped out their retirement, but the plan hinged on being able to flip Florida real estate. Oops. Time for Plan B.

By Donna Rosato, Money Magazine staff writer May 22 2007: 4:17 PM EDT”

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/22/magazines/moneymag/retirement_interrupted.moneymag/

By Rich R

May 23, 2007 10:57 AM | Link to this

As I am no fan of flippers AT ALL, I find it hard to feel sorry for these people.

With a household income of $200K, and a vacation home on the Outer Banks, it seems to me that they lived beyond their means. To retire with only $260K, what were they thinking?

It was the flippers that destroyed the RE market in Florida and now it’s time to pay the piper.

Sell off the assets, get out of the 3,700 sqft home, or change your name to Jones.

Why in corn sake do two retiree’s find the need to have a 3,700 sqft home?

It’s their own fault. Can you say “Bankrupt”?

No sympathy here!

By New Numbers

May 23, 2007 11:09 AM | Link to this

A lot of realtors have not been making any money for awhile.

You know the old saying, when there is no money, love flies out the window.

Wonder what the new numbers are of realtors still happily married these days.

Wonder if there is any correlation to this equation:

less sales = more divorces

Is Jeff moonlighting at another newspaper in Atlanta Georgia these days?

By Ghost of a Chance

May 23, 2007 11:48 AM | Link to this

Rich R. -

If I accused you wrongly, then I DO apologize, but forgive me if I don’t go poring through blogs from last November!

And I have to say without any acerbity to anyone who DOES go poring through logs from last November, you definitely have too much time on your hands!!!

WAKE - Absolutely, we need some kind of figures that actually tell us something. But who can collect them and how?

99Averages - I will go through 2007 sales for the building and tell you what I think, good or bad. (If you are right there aren’t many to go through!)

By cw1900

May 23, 2007 11:56 AM | Link to this

I’ll wait for a new topic. It’s mostly noise right now, however, I must second Rich R’s post from 1057am this morning.

It is exactly what I have been saying. I have zero sympathy for these two people. To hinge your retirement on extremely risky speculations, is suicide every day of the week, and you deserve to have your head handed to you. Talk about living beyond their means?

Cmon, you have got to be kidding me.

cw

By 99sales

May 23, 2007 1:25 PM | Link to this

quick look at 99 NE mizner appears 6 sales in ‘07. avg 532k.

By 99oops

May 23, 2007 1:40 PM | Link to this

quick look overlooked sale of apt 321 03/07 for 390K.

this makes avg sale 510K not 532K.

By WAKE UP

May 23, 2007 1:51 PM | Link to this

G Max - I wish I could tell you what system would work - it would require a whole re-classification of properties and how they’re evaluated - would be way to complicated for average citizen/consumer. As the old saying goes - keep it simple stupid - so we’re probably stuck with these methods for many more years.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 23, 2007 3:14 PM | Link to this

99etc -

PAPA has 8 sales so far as I can see, for 2007. Results are mixed. First the bad news for owners / sellers. One apparent DISASTER popped up with a 1 br selling at 280K. This was not an MLS sale and I don’t remember it as a FSBO, so this could be friend to friend. Plenty of people try to beat the tax stamps, but I have no evidence of this at this point.

It is, however, strange, because I was aware of negotiations on different deals in the building, and none of them I heard of came within 30K of being this low.

I am trying to look into what happened. Meantime, it counts, and the appraisers will be using it until they have an explanation that makes them think twice.

SO there is an argument for the doomers.

BTW, another 1 br sold for 322,500, whereas non-descript 1 br’s had been selling for a year or at 350 or a little more, so a slight dip there. Our standard 6% or so dip.

Now the good news. Prices paid on 2 br’s have been surprisingly high, with the exception of that one you mentioned for 390K. Other 2007 2 br’s went for 545K, 550K, 530K, and 551K. I have to tell you these are very good prices for this building. The recent 551K is interesting. It sold last year for 585K, so again down about 6%. However, prices in the building were ridiculously high last year. I will take your word on the averages, but a 532K average w/o the 390 sale is absolutely fabulous and, pesonally speaking, unexpected — but also down about 7% from that overpriced average mentioned last November.

SO: mixed results, but the 280K 1 br is very bothersome.

Your best bet at picking up a bargain (IMHO): Apt. 745 (?), 2 br 7th floor West, listed through Steve Gerken (sp?) at Palmetto Park Properties at 425K. If you can not accept a unit facing West, next cheapest 2br is a third floor East for 475K.

Notes:

1) Address in the listing that I looked at for # 545 is “SE” Mizner. I don’t know where “NE” got into the mix.

2) There is no Villa Del Rio in the immediate area. That information is just a mistake.

3) As always, I expect a dip this summer in South Florida, like any other year. What happens after that could be very significant.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 23, 2007 3:40 PM | Link to this

WAKE -

We need you to come up with an aggravation indicator to tell us just how bothersome it is going to be to try to sell a house, and how many TV’s (turkeys who think they are vultures) you will have to deal with.

By WAKE UP

May 23, 2007 5:01 PM | Link to this

LOL - first, I have to admit I’m not seeing as many customers as I would like turkeys or otherwise, so I probably will drop my asking price or start advertising for renters. BIG NOTE to dropping the asking price - I am currently listed at about 50% above what I paid in ‘05 - I know doomers will challenge me - whatever - house across the street just sold for $100k over what was paid in nov ‘05 or about 20%. Even after I drop the price I will pocket about $150k - before doomers challenge me on carrying costs - please note I had over 50% equity in the property when I bought, so no I didn’t finance 100% and my mortgage payment isn’t much more than your rent…

I have a low tolerance for pain and aggravation, so I will only show to serious buyers. Fortunately we’re fairly high end and don’t have too many looky loos as I think maybe cw put it.

So scale of 1 to 10…

1 - we know we made an appointmnt and you were up until midnight prepping your house, but we can’t make it today (at least the wifey got the house clean!) 2 - no offer, just thanks for the tour… 3 - Thanks for the tour, we’re going down the street to the house we’ll need to spend $25k to decorate, landscape and repair since it’s been empty and never live in… 4 - this is a nice property, a little more than we were looking to pay… 5 - beautifully decorated - it’s in move in condition… (no offer to follow) 6 - It’s just the 2 of us, 6 bedrooms is just too much (then why did you bother stopping by?!?!?!) 7 - I noticed you had your property FSBO - would you like me to list it? (ummm - it’s already listed in MLS jack@@@ with 3% to buyer’s agent…what do you think) - no knock to RE agents here, but with the advent of the web…well you know… 8 - Wow, we really like it - how about knocking off $100k and we’ll talk (thud, kafwumph - sound of me kicking scumbag out of my house) 9 - We were looking for more of a fixer upper…(didn’t you see the pictures on the web?!?!?!) 10 - Cool garage system, it’s way too organixed for me though, I would never use it, I leave sh@@ all over the place, all these hooks and adjustable shelves are useless to me. (get out! now! hand over your man card and leave - any self respecting man would blow a wad if they were offered this garage…)

;) have a good day all…..

By To Max

May 23, 2007 5:21 PM | Link to this

Maxi, I promise to stop making fun of you (for a while). By the way, a “Turkey Vulture” is a real bird. S. FL is full of them.

Do you have any dealings in Northern PB County?

By Curious

May 23, 2007 5:35 PM | Link to this

I erred yesterday when I posted the above fictitious house listing at “Ant Hill Estates.”

The price was waaay too high — which was the point, in this humorous mockery reflecting today’s absurd market and common ridiculous prayer prices.

Just stumbled upon a real-life listing in a seemingly similar, but real, Ant Hill Estates type community for $100,000 less! The religious reference in the advertisement was too much of a comic coincidence and connection to not show and share here.

http://westpalmbeach.craigslist.org/rfs/334977924.html

By To Curious

May 23, 2007 6:26 PM | Link to this

”..in this humorous mockery reflecting today’s absurd market and common ridiculous prayer prices.”

Curious, you really do think you’re funny, don’t you?

We finally figured you out. I thought you were just not too bright, but in reality, it is actually think you are smart and funny.

Now I got it.

BTW, that house on craigslist won’t sell because of that location.

West Boynton is not worth those prices no matter what anybody who lives there says.

West Boynton has got problems, and I’m not talking real estate.

The schmuck that bought that property got screwed, gjooed, and tattoed.

That equivalent house in a better town will sell much faster and for more money when things get a little better.

That was a bad investment.

By Curious

May 23, 2007 7:00 PM | Link to this

To Curious,

“We finally figured you out. I thought you were just not too bright, but in reality, it is actually think you are smart and funny.

Now I got it.”

Whatever makes you feel good and self-boosts your ego … .

Love the “We” – a big giveaway.

Sorry, but you got nothing but big-time self-concept problems.

Cheers!

:-)

By Mom

May 23, 2007 8:30 PM | Link to this

OK BOYS! You know who you are - YOU’RE IN TIME-OUT!

Better yet, why don’t one of you rich guys break down and get a blog (Less than $12 a month) and then you could entertain/insult/’debate’ each other about the issue of whether or not RE is in the tank part of the way or all of the way, etc., ad nauseam.

Then THIS comment page might look a bit more like the normal one on SunSentinel… where, if there is ANYthing of value to read, you dont have to scroll though VOLUMES of rants/tirades/occasionally amusing one-liners.

Hey, even Jeff has abandoned his own ‘blog’ - not posting a new ‘article’ since 05/15.

By Sanjaya

May 23, 2007 9:39 PM | Link to this

I should have won.

Oh well.

After the show tonight, I have been hired to take over for Jeff and run these blogs.

I’m making some big changes.

What is real estate, anyway?

Can I add live audio so you can hear me sing?

Sanjaya

By WAKE UP

May 24, 2007 9:10 AM | Link to this

okay 8-9 days now w/o a new article…it’s official, Jeff’s been kidnapped…and dropped off in the Carolinas….

By Rich R

May 24, 2007 9:35 AM | Link to this

Since Jeff O seems to have evaporated, perhaps we can just come up with our own topics to discuss.

Here is an interesting article in today’s Sun Sentinel.

“Four charged in multi-million dollar fraud scheme at Hallandale Beach condo”

Here’s the link:

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/broward/sfl-sparker24may24,0,7819825.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines

Is there anything else SoFla can come up with that would make buying SoFla RE less appealing?

I am not shocked by this, but come’on, enough is enough.

By Realist

May 24, 2007 10:01 AM | Link to this

Rich,

Fraud on the part of CAMs, I am shocked I tell you shocked!

By easyasabc

May 24, 2007 10:28 AM | Link to this

News and Notes…..

Watching the three local news channels last night on what they lead off their news with….

NBC started off with Iraq war news…

CBS started off with public services being cut in Martin and St. Lucie counties due to lower property tax proposals….

and ABC news started off with the HOT looking mommy that Gov. Charlie Crist is hanging out with…..

then everyone talked about the hurricane season afterwards……

A national hurricane center reported the TOP 5 areas that could get hit by a hurricane….three of the five were Martin, St. Lucie and Indian River county…..nothing but orange groves and cheap houses under foreclosures in those areas…..no great lost ….#2 was a county in Louisana, near New Orleans…..and #1 area most likly to get hit was…(drum roll please)…..get ready Rich R. and Carolina Gal….was a half-back Mayberry county in NORTH CAROLINA……..LOL !

There is a report that Jeff and Linda was spotted crossing the Arizona border into Mexico, planning to get a job at El Mexicana Heraldo !!!!!

If the jobs don’t work out for them, there is still openings for them at the donkey shows in Tijuana…..

This just came in….someone spotted Jeff and Linda leaving a sleazy motel off of Dixie Hwy. in Pompano…..maybe they are doing in-depth report on low cost commercial real estate for us……

Back to the scare tactics that these politicians are doing on everyone for not lowering the property taxes…..they said the medical and police copters will be grounded….hundreds of police and firemen will be laid off….parks will be closed….all these city services will be cut….all except these politicians salaries!!!!!!….they will give themselves nice raises, no matter what in the future while they cut back city services….most local 911 funding is from the Federal govt thru grants…..don’t let these politicians fool you all…..again….they got your vote…..now they want your money and more of it…….we did ok before the property values went high on us…..it is all about self-control by our politicians….more we give to them, the more they will spend……they are like dirty old men waving dollar bills in a strip club…or whacky women who have their husbands credit card and go on wild shopping spree at the Boca Town Mall and trying to impress their girlfriends…..

Is it me or what?….that we have the biggest idiots, fools and dumb asses that is living in South Florida…..most of you people are soft in the head….once again, we have the “haves” and “have nots” here….the ones with brains and the ones with not.

easyasabc

By Rich R

May 24, 2007 10:48 AM | Link to this

Hey Easy,

I saw that too.

NC has always been a target for Hurricanes, no secret there.

That’s the exact reason I didn’t buy over near the coast. The folks over there pay crazy rates for insurance just like you in SoFla.

The crosshairs seem to center over on the Outer Banks and the coastline.

I am about 175 miles inland, and by talking to long time locals, by the time storms hit this area, it rarely causes huge damage, it’s the flooding in low lying areas.

I guess that’s why my H3 policy with State Farm is only $357 per year with a $500 deductible.

Even if we did get a cat 5 up here, at least I can get out. With all the new comers to SoFla and no new roads, you could very well find yourself stuck on I-95 with 150mph winds bearing down. That’s what scares me.

By cw1900

May 24, 2007 10:59 AM | Link to this

Here’s a good story. Rich R will get a kick out of this.

Friend of a friend of a friend story.

I have been told this. I have no reason to doubt it, how much is totally true I don’t know, but I’ll go with it I was told. The basic concept is sad and funny at the same time.

These people have an adjustable rate mortgage of I don’t know what size. When they got it, I don’t know. The house appears to be around I’m guessing $525 - $550k today. I have no idea if they have any second mortgage or heloc of any kind.

Their adjustable has adjusted up twice in I don’t know how long of a time frame. These people are very Jonesy. I have met them occassionally socially at mutual friends home. The wife is a big spender, very caught up on labels, that kind of chick. Fake, high maintenance, is how I would describe her. She wears the pants in the family, it appears to me, but then again, I have no idea what they’re really like except in the social situations I have been in contact with them. The best way to describe him is how I saw the guy the last time a couple of months back at a weekend party. The whole time he was there, this guy had a sweater over his shoulder, not for wear, but for some kind of a fashion statement. Looked very steeped in gayness to me. It was weird and kind of embarrassing.

Nonetheless, Madison Avenue loves this couple.

Anyway, come to find out they are behind in their mortgage payments and the wife has been complaining to the mutual friend’s wife for quite some time about how tight things are for them with the adjustable and the higher insurance, etc. Why am I telling you this? It illustrates how some of these sad stories you read about and how you are made to feel sorry for them, is many times not the real story if you just find out the real reasons some people are in these problems.

This woman works with the other woman. Every morning she arrives at work with what? You guessed it. The $6 or $ 7 worth of designer coffee and pastry, and purse stuffed with credit card receipts from the proverbial mall. There are two cars in the family, both bought brand new, both less than 2 years old, and both with hefty car payments…..and they have a boat payment with a rented slip somewhere.

Yet, they are behind on the mortgage payments! These people, my friends, are idiots you would not want to hire. Think of the stupidity.

This scenario is not one to remotely feel sorry for. Quite frankly, it would be fun to watch something like this unfold into disaster. They deserve it. Maybe it will bring them back to reality. This problem is so fixable, yet apparently, they will not change their lifestyle in order to fix it, nor do they think it is their fault.

What is so sad about this, is that they are a living a constant stressful struggle, yet if they just cut their spending, sold the cars to get rid of the car payments, and bought a couple of reliable cheap cars to get them through this mess, and sold the boat, their problem would be solved.

They have instead decided to dig themselves a hole, and now that they have a few late payments on their credit report, how are they going to refinance into a fixed rate successfully? Not too easily.

Even after all the stories we hear and idiots we all see like $300 shorts guy and people taking out a heloc and putting their home at risk for the all the credit card dinners they ate years ago, this story still amazes me.

cw

By cw1900

May 24, 2007 11:10 AM | Link to this

Easy, I agree with you on the property tax issue. I saw the report on fox 29 last night, and it was a scare tactic. It is flat out BS. Police, fire cuts lol. It’s a load. I have taken the unpopular on the surface stance of saying that police and fire are over paid anyway, and under your breath, a few of you said you agree, but to say that out loud for some reason makes you a boob. Look me in the eye and tell me a fireman who works a few shifts a month, loads of built in days off, pensions, the best benefits private companies can’t afford, and the entrenchment, tell me it ok for the taxpayers to pay that guy $90k yr after maybe 10 years of service. Danger you say? Hey, that is the job they chose. It stil doesn’t hide the fact that many fire and police are overpaid, and it is a drain on our budgets.

Yes, I still appreciate them if and when I everv need them. That is not the point. We have to be reasonable in spreading out tax dollars, and that is one way to help. Did you hear that, what was it Easy, 45% of the tax revenue that comes into the county goes to law enforcement!! What? Those cops are living way too high on the hog. Go ahead, all you milktoasts, put your hand over your mouth and gasp in disbelief, it’s true, and somebody needs to say it.

I think I will try and google that old post from last summer I got so much flack about saying this exact thing and how we were pandering to police, fire, teachers…Remember that one? I will google it and repost it.

cw

By WAKE UP

May 24, 2007 11:39 AM | Link to this

cw - it’s not that they’re overpaid so much, it’s the benefits package that they end up with that will eventually bankrupt some agencies…I have a family member who has been with a law enforcement agency for 35+ years now. They are about 9 months from actual retirement. Get this - some of you may be familiar with the “drop” plan - this person has actually been “retired” for 4 years now and has their pension benefits deposited into an account while still working and drawing a normal salary - basically making a double salary for the 5 years of the “drop” plan. Now they can’t touch the pension payments until they’re actually done, but it’s a pretty sweet deal.

In addition, they’re awarded additional percentages per years of service towards their pension amount because they’re in high risk law enforcement. So this person will retire with roughly 96% of their salary. Now to top it off, it’s not their base salary, it’s the average of their top 5 years of pay, which includes overtime! So this person will make more money in retirement than their current salary. Plus they get an annual COLA - cost of living adjustment.

But wait there’s more. Officers have the choice of 1 lump sum, benefits until death or benefits trasferable to their spouse until the spouse’s death. And they are offered medical coverage under the state plan for a very, very reasonable monthly payment (about $300/mo for FAMILY).

Now I have never thought that officers were overpaid, but the reason their salaries were low was because of the retirement packages. Something has to be put in check somewhere in the process…

By TO WAKE UP

May 24, 2007 11:55 AM | Link to this

I was just about to post that CW is a total a**hole, but then I read your post. Maybe he has a point, and if accurate, what you just posted makes me ill.

By Rich R

May 24, 2007 11:57 AM | Link to this

CW,

It’s a sad story, but so true everywhere, not just SoFla.

But I think I can top it.

Yesterday, I had an appointment with my attorney to go over a few things, and it was time to tweak the will.

When I arrived, there was a man and wife with a small child, I’m guessing about 3 or 4 years old. The wife had sunglasses with Chanel frames, a Coach purse, and the man was wearing Ralp Lauren Crocodile shoes. The baby had on a polo shirt complete with the polo pony and lacosse sneakers.

They had an appointment before me and the attorney was running a little late, so I waited in the outer office which is adjacent to the conference room.

While I was waiting, I picked up the most recent copy of GQ and breezed the ads and to see crazy things like an $80 t-shirt that was identical to the one I bought at Target for $7. I saw a pair of what looked like painters pants for $280, oh well.

During my period of waiting, the door to the conference room was not closed and I could hear most of what was being said.

It seems that this family was there to discuss their recent bankruptcy filing and the wife started getting mad and actually screaming at the attorney. At that point I tuned in as I was just nosey.

It seems that this family has been racking up credit card debt for sometime and have reached the breaking point due to the recent adjustment to their adjustable rate mortgage and can’t handle the $700+ increase in payments.

This family pulled a HELOC to payoff some of the credit card debt and to pay for the wife’s plastic surgery (That one just made me laugh). It turns out they just did the HELOC a few months ago.

The wife was freaked because the attorney told them that the HELOC was a bad thing to do with plans to file for bankruptcy, because it’s now secured by the home.

The attorney told them that if they left all the debt on credit cards, most, if not all of it could be discharged in bankruptcy and now with the HELOC and the families intention to exempt the home and reaffirm the mortgages, these could not be discharged and would have to be paid. This family had the false idea that after bankruptcy, they would have good credit again and can start all over.

The wife called the attorney every name in the book, and was actually pissed because they would have to continue to pay for the Gasoline, Chanel sunglasses, crocodile shoes for the next 15 years at a high interest rate. The wife was mad because she couldn’t walk away from her irresponsible spending.

I could go on and on, but I’m sure you all get the point here.

When their meeting was over, the husband came out with the small boy, and wife lingered in with the attorney for a few minutes. He struck up a conversation with me, and I had to ask what type of work he did.

He was a plumber; she was a stay at home Mom.

He was very nice, but also very stupid.

At that point, I just shock my head and went on with business.

CW, I couldn’t wait to tell you this story. Once again I thought of Olympia and Evergreene.

This madness needs to stop. I think you should have to qualify for a Credit Card in the same fashion you get a mortgage. I think ALL credit cards should be secured. Perhaps this would make people think alittle before they charge the gasoline and make the minimum payments at 18%+

By WAKE UP

May 24, 2007 11:58 AM | Link to this

I should add that the amount this person will receive each month will start at about $6,500 / mo. They elected to receive benefits that were transferable to their spouse. This individual and their spouse are both in their fifties - doing a little quick math, assuming atleast 1 will live into their 80’s, that’s roughly 30 years. After a scant 2% annual COLA adjustment, monthly payout is in the $11k per month range and close to $140k annually - that’s just insane!

By Realist

May 24, 2007 12:13 PM | Link to this

Intersting points about the new home sales data, the median home price nationwide has come down to $229,100. That is a 10% drop from last month. However the most intersting thing is that sales soared because of that dip. Just think would would happen to sales, insurance, taxes if the median were to drop to even $250,000 here. Our micro market needs to take a lesson from the macro.

By Rich R

May 24, 2007 12:13 PM | Link to this

I was always defending the essential workers, but I do have to say if what’s posted above is true.

I and stunned! I had no idea they were paid so much.

That’s just nuts.

Once again, I am with you CW and WAKE.

By WAKE UP

May 24, 2007 12:14 PM | Link to this

Oh, it’s accurate. From a personal standpoint, I’m obviously tickled to know that they will be taken care of and awarded for their years of service, but it will become a real drain on agencies once more of the baby boomer generation begins to retire from these gov’t agencies.

Another quick note - I once knew a gentleman who worked for NYPD for 20 years. He retired and went to work for I think it was Lake Worth PD. He was in his 50s at the time and had intended on putting in 20 years at LWPD (he already had 10 at the time). So he was going to make 2 pensions after his second retirement and was set to start oollecting his NYPD pension at age 55. The topper to this was that he was a naval reservist who was going to have 30+ years towards his military pension as a Master Chief. 3 pensions totalling well into the 6 figure range…and who says gov’t work doesn’t pay…

Now he worked hard for all of these, so you can’t fault him, but somewhere along the way you have to question where the governmental control / overshadowing should kick in and regulate this in some way.

By cw1900

May 24, 2007 12:41 PM | Link to this

I found that old post. It was from July 2006 and I reposted it a few months ago when someone brought up the same thing.

Here it is.

===

By cw1900

February 8, 2007 1:36 PM | Link to this

To HardasXYZ,

Here’s the post I was talking about. I found it. I posted under the name of “teacher’s husband”

By teacher’s husband

July 13, 2006 10:15 PM

I totally agree about the police, fire, teacher, pandering crap about giving them tax incentives. I vote no.

I can say this as my wife is a PB County school teacher, a very good friend of mine is a PB County firefighter, my neighbor (My kid plays with his kid) is a local town cop, and I personally know a former PB County Fire Chief.

My wife earns $48,000 and is off for two months during the summer. Not even taking into account the extra days off during the year and the xmas break, that equates to $57,600 per 12 month year that the typical low to middle mgmt schmuck makes working. There are plenty of 12 month, decent, white collar jobs that pay $48,000 for a 12 month job. They are working right now while my wife and my kid’s are up north at our glorious, paid for, lakefront house for 6 weeks (I’ll be up there soon for two weeks myself as I am one of those schmucks with the 12 month career job) with the nice dock and boat, coming back just in time to start school.That doesn’t suck¦..Pity the poor $48,000 12 month working housewife who gets up every summer workday morning and has to drag her kids to so called summer camp daycare, and gets home at 630pm. That does suck. What kind of a summer is it for those kids? Not my kids though. They’re having a blast.

My firefighter friend and his buddies hardly work. Yes, they work about 2 days per week (2 twenty four hour shifts, 1 day on , two days off type of deal), but they have more time on their hands than they know what to do with, and my friend is paid at the present time about 75k, and that will always rise. He personally know one PB County firefighter making 97k right now and climbing¦..But we need to pity the poor cop, teacher, fireman, hahahaha, you sound like a pandering, patronizing politician saying nonsense like that. Him and his buddies drive around in their truck going to Publix watching the good people of PBC scurrying off to their 800am-500pm jobs and pitying them.

My neighbor the cop is the biggest idiot on the block and his pay is in the 50k range at the present. His home is probably worth 500k even in this market. You should here the snide comments out of his mouth about the “good people of PB County” after the hurricanes. Do you remember how hard it was to get a decent generator around here in the days following the Frances and Jeanne storms? Are you aware that Lowe’s kept a bunch of nice generators in the back exclusively for PB County cops and their families at discounted prices while the rest of the populace walked into the same store and were told there wasn’t any? I know this as another one of my neighbor’s brother works for the PB County Sheriff’s office and already had a generator, but went to Lowe’s and bought one at a nice discounted price after the hurricane to bring over to his sister’s house, my neighbor. Let the fools of Palm Beach County eat cake, hahahaha, the men and women in blue think to themselves.

You still think these people deserve a special tax break. You are talking about the same people who got special discounts at Disney World after Sept 11 just because they are firefighters¦..Now wait a minute, most of them have never even been to NYC let alone had anything to do with heroics of 9/11. Give me a break. What makes them so special? Why doesn’t the nurse or the sales rep who sells sirens that go on firetrucks get a special discount at Disney. I find the whole thing nothing more than pandering to a group that are paid to do a job just like you and I. As to being dangerous, so what. They picked the job, not me. It doesn’t fly. Nobody put a gun to their head and said be a cop for Manalapan or West Palm Beach.

Again, stop the nonsense about the poor cop, teacher, or firefighter. They have it better than most here. Don’t take my word for it. My wife will tell you that, and so will my friend and neighbor.

By Rich R

February 8, 2007 1:43 PM | Link to this

I remember that post.

Funny.

By cw the jerk

February 8, 2007 1:58 PM | Link to this

i hope cw falls off a bridge

=================

cw

By Ghost of a Chance

May 24, 2007 2:03 PM | Link to this

99ETC -

FOLLOW UP TO 99 SE MIZNER:

OK, I did investigate that “disasterous” apparent 280K sale for 1 br at 99 SE MIZNER.

It turns out this was an intra-family deal, a wedding gift of sorts. The kicker was that when the daughter got married she changed her neame,so it looks like an arms-length sale in PAPA, but it isnt.

MOM and DAD sold daughter and son-in-law the place for what they could afford.

SO: LET this be a lesson to me, but many of you are making the same mistake: finding special situations on PAPA and mistaking them for arms-length sales.

It’s the information age, folks, and one family that inadvertently posts misleading information can screw up the market for an entire building!

SO check it out before you assume you have found falling prices.

Sorry, have to catch up on previous posts later.

By Rich R

May 24, 2007 2:04 PM | Link to this

I am reformed.

I did defend the essential workers, but had no clue they made so much and especially the pension.

Try to find ANY job that offers a pension now. Just don’t exist.

It’s nice to be correct, but nobody is right all the time.

I am ashamed.

:(

By easyasabc

May 24, 2007 2:27 PM | Link to this

There is one police officer who was profiled in the newspaper one day last year…..the overtime he puts in, plus his salary was more than the police chief herself made !….he was in the six figure range for several years……he is not the only city worker abusing the system…..there are others…..Hollywood police and fire have a great benefit package compare to a CEO benefit package…and the Hollywood taxpayers are paying for it…..

One thing I know about cops and firemen…..they all love to throw the dice, play cards and put their chips on a number……that is why most cops and firemen have nothing in life……they are throwing their money away……that is why they rent…..they are all into the gambling…..they are addicted……born losers.

Now, taxpayers are required to pay the benefits of city workers who have the same sex partner living with them?…..I am from the old school, and what works is boy + girl….not boy + boy…or girl + girl…….

I have to say this about hurricanes and being 175 miles away from the coastline…..hurricanes can develop tornadoes, wind damage and floods……no matter what, you can get hit one way or another……there were hurricanes that hit the gulf at various times, and created massive floods and power outages all the way into Kentucky, Ohio and Indiana days after ……if you are at a bottom of a hill in the Carolinas or near a river….stack up on sandbags.

One thing about teachers pay rate…….starting PBC is in the low $30k……the ones who really make the money are the school administrators……there are princpals who make six figures and skimming school funds through third parties and winding up with million dollar condos along the ocean…….I know many stories from people of how school administrators of being involved with school fund scams…..

School bus drivers make more then the temp. teachers, now that just does not make sense…..then again, this is Palm Beach County ……the system is in a total mess….also in Broward and Dade……..to bad the PB Post cannot list the salaries of all those administrators at the Forrest Hill Mansion…..the taxpayers will be flipping out to see how much these people make by sitting at a desk and shifting papers around……

The county and the city govt.’s just want to pick on the poor property owner taxpayers to pay everyones way in life.

Yes, as we speak….prices are going up !

Not just in Florida, but everywhere……don’t worry, it will happen in Mayberryland also……Deputy Fife will want a new patrol car…..and Floyd will raise the price of a haircut……and Gober will charge more for car repairs….but poor Aunt Bee will take away the business from Carolina Gal by offering lower rates…….I could just cringe just thinking about that.

Pie anyone ?

easyasabc

By nascarwill@ala.net

May 24, 2007 2:35 PM | Link to this

Nascar Will

Hey! I just came across this blog here. I live in Tuscalloosa Alabama. Me, wife and three kids moved up here one year ago. I generally spend most of my time on a RE blog covering the west coast of Florida, but just came across this one here. I spent about a year posting on that blog talking about things up here in general and making incessant comparisons to the way of life up here to what it’s like in South Florida.

I make a good salary up here, more than I made in South Florida. Everything up here costs less. My insurance is less. Car insurance, etc. We make runs to the Piggly Wiggly once a week and spend much less money. And let me tell you about the people. Whew! Are they nice. Boy o’ boy. So less hurried up here. Everyone down there is in a hurry. You know, I just enjoy telling people about how good we have it up here.

Did I mention how nice my neighbors are? When I moved in, they brought over the whole family to say hello. No one says hello to anyone in South Florida. See how nice it is up here? I just love telling people that story.

Oh, by the way, I used to have a lot of things when I lived in South Florida. How is this relevant you ask? It’s not, I just enjoy posting on various blogs about things I have or used to have and how cheap it is now because of where I live to have more things. I know it’s expensive for you to have things, and some of your things might actually be losing value. Just thought I’d point that out.

They’ve really done a nice job up here in Alabama. Nice schools, uncrowded. Everyone says hello.

So it’s Nascar Will signing off from Alabama!!!

By Cop Wife

May 24, 2007 3:27 PM | Link to this

I can’t believe I am writing on here. Here is my story.

I am married to West Palm Beach Policeman and we are close to bankruptcy.

My husband and all his buddies are always getting freebies to go aboard and gamble on the ship here. They are all addicted to gambling and that cruise ship has their employees soliciting the cops to gamble on their ship in return for special favors.

We are going broke because my husband is always aboard that ship gambling our income away. I can’t support his gambling addiction and am looking for a divorce lawyer. The casino owners have the cops in their pockets here and are in the cops pockets as well.

The more money the cops get here, the more they gamble it away at the casinos.

Gambling has destroyed my marriage. Have been a renter here and could never buy a home because of the gambling problem. I am leaving this state as soon as my divorce is final.

By A.P.

May 24, 2007 3:29 PM | Link to this

While there is nothing much going on with Real Estate, I’m DISGUSTED that POLITICIANS are PINNING Police Officers, Firefighters, and Rescue Personnel AGAINST the taxpayers!

It’s our elected POLITICIANS whom created this mess!

It’s called being FISCALLY IRRESPONSIBLE!

It’s a SHAME that their using OUR Public Servants as an ESCAPE GOAT!

It’s THEM our elected Politicians who need to be held ACCOUNTABLE.

The BOTTOM LINE is that MOST CITY AND COUNTY BUDGETS revolve around EMERGENCY SERVICES such as Police and Fire.

This is NOT nothing new!

The only difference now is that they spent the EXCESS REVENUES LIKE DRUKEN SAILORS and now we as taxpayers are wondering where the money went.

Look around it’s not to difficult to see wasted money spent on NEW BUILDINGS, PARKS, and other unneeded B******T!

I don’t understand the RESENTMENT towards OUR Public Servants.

I’m extremely GRATEFUL that these men and women literally put their LIFES ON THE LINE every day, expose themselves to INFECTIOUS DISEASES, suffer EARLY DEATHS in their lives due to work related stress DOCUMENTED by studies, are the FIRST LINE OF DEFENSE against TERRORISM, SACRAFICE their holidays with their families to SERVE AND PROTECT while we the majority stay home with our families, suffer a HIGHER incidence of DIVORCE, and see tragedies on a DAILY basis that DRAIN them PHYSICALLY and EMOTIONALLY instead of US!

Some might say,”they picked their career”.

I agree, but if you think that the MAJORITY of people can do this job you’re MISTAKEN. If it was that easy I would drop my pen in my office and do this job.

MOST people can’t do this job!

This has been a popular topic recently and I could tell you from what I’ve seen the MAJORITY of the people who are complaining about OUR Public Servants are extremely bitter.

The MAJORITY are a BUNCH OF WARTHOGS that can’t even SAVE themselves NO LESS anybody else.

The BOTTOM LINE this is a SCARE TACTIC by our BELOVED politicians!

I’m in FAVOR of significiant tax cuts but to use OUR Public Servants as a CATALYST so our Politicians don’t have to be FISCALLY RESPONSIBLE is complete HORSESHIT!

I don’t believe OUR services will be CUT.

If it did, This is what is going to happen NOT because of OUR Public Servants are draining the system, but because our elected Politicans are NOT owning up to their MISTAKES!

INCREASE IN CRIME, MORBIDITY, AND MORTALITY!

By 99MiznerAvg

May 24, 2007 4:12 PM | Link to this

Sales in 2007 for 99 SE Mizner avg = 510K WITHOUT the 280K sale included.

This is what max gave for 2006 :

“Average: $567,000

UP UP UP UP UP 27%”

PH 934 is nice unit, STILL for sale, will probably deal,as has dropped asking price from 859,900 last year, now asking 705K. Still has room for profit, but carrying costs eating away. Month,after month, after month.

By 99MiznerAvg

May 24, 2007 4:12 PM | Link to this

Sales in 2007 for 99 SE Mizner avg = 510K WITHOUT the 280K sale included.

This is what max gave for 2006 :

“Average: $567,000

UP UP UP UP UP 27%”

PH 934 is nice unit, STILL for sale, will probably deal,as has dropped asking price from 859,900 last year, now asking 705K. Still has room for profit, but carrying costs eating away. Month,after month, after month.

By WAKE UP

May 24, 2007 4:14 PM | Link to this

AP - you’re correct, the politicians are to blame for even thinking about pitting the civil servants against the rest of the community. Unfortunately though, there is a TON of waste and mis-management in local gov’t. The county could operate smoothly with about half of the resources out there. LAZY and irresponsible workers who play the system cost the taxpayers millions of dollars every year. My wife used to work for the county in a social services type position. She had co-workers who blatantly screwed up their casework, but would not get fired because of fear of a lawsuit. It’s ridiculous!

Most of us couldn’t do some of the jobs, I know I could never pass the psyche exam to be a cop - I’m all for shoot first and ask questions later! (If they run they must be guilty of something….right????) Anyways, there are police officers and firefighters that abuse the system as much as the next guy too. It wasn’t that long ago that one of the local municipalities got into a little trouble over some MANDATORY overtime policies that they had, making citizens pay overtime rates for fire and rescue services at local events, when regular “on-duty” personnel could have easily been used. It goes on and on.

Bottom line is the county and city council members who are trying to scare everyone with this BS should be fired. Make them justify what they’re doing or kick them to the curb. I’m sure if they had the ultimatuum to either balance the budget w/o touching life safety services or lose their jobs, they’d find a way.

It’s not that hard to go back and look at the budgets for the last few years to see where the money is going either. It sounds like a great article for a crack reasearch team at the Post - how about it folks….follow the money trail and shut up the local politicians.

By Curious

May 24, 2007 4:38 PM | Link to this

“Law firm starts practice to address real estate problems South Florida Business Journal - 10:21 AM EDT Wednesday, May 23, 2007”

http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2007/05/21/daily22.html

Sellers here with iffy equity in Prayer Priced properties in one of the Ant Hill Estates may want to add this firm’s phone number to their speed dial menu.

CHEERS!

By easyasabc

May 24, 2007 4:56 PM | Link to this

This is what I have been saying…..have these crooked politicians and department heads for various city county offices get investigated……..Oops, another Hollywood cop got caught by the Feds……..more crooked police officers & politicians will soon be investigated………..Hey “Wake Up”, don’t you know the people at the Post are on their summer vacation……nothing but articles of where to go out to eat at, hurricane news and dumb face photos of our politicians from now until October in the Post.

New Home sales up….New median home sale prices down due to the great discounts that the Home Builders are giving out these days….too bad the new home buyers who bought earlier will not get a discount….don’t worry, the Homebuilders did not lose on those discount homes….they were most likly sold before (mayby two times) and the buyers lost their $40k deposits when they pulled out …..

OK, it is the start of the Memorial Day weekend……When I come back next Wednesday, I don’t want to see Madmax, RCA, Rich R., or Steve posting all weekend long….because if you guys do….then you are bigger losers than most of us suspected about you…….I will be heading out to sea….maybe I pick up a few extra bucks by dropping some refugees off the coast here……so many people want to be Americans….they want to live in America……I just don’t think it will be in Alabama with Nascar Will…..hey Will, go watch the Indy race and count how many times they go around the track.

Italian bar-b-que at my place this Monday……maybe the “crew” will knock some heads around for me !

Yeah, I got their number……

easyasabc

By Curious

May 24, 2007 5:28 PM | Link to this

Any other potential buyers here who love to scroll through this site of free real estate ads:

http://westpalmbeach.craigslist.org/rfs/

I have been doing so for several months.

In this market, it is a daily updated source of amusement (usually) to see all the ads by private and professional sellers, most with grandiose sweet dreams text, revealing photos, and Prayer Prices.

Every once in awhile I will answer an ad and usually get the standard ignorant, delusional, BS reply.

LOVE IT!

By Ghost of a Chance

May 24, 2007 6:19 PM | Link to this

99ETC -

Room for profit in 934? LOL, I would say so. Like 200K in 2.5 years.

Broker/Investor owner. Beautiful 2 story penthouse, I will guess owner-occupied. Do not trust PAPA for sales price on this one.

PAPA also fiction on #525. Another Broker/Owner (like most of that building). PAPA price: 219K. Real price: 203,670 after cash give-back and commission.

You are mixing up apples and oranges. The 280K within family was a 1br. Come to think of it, I have not done any digging on the 2br for 390K. If you throw that one out, the remaining 4 2-bedrooms went for 530, 545, 550, and 551. An Averge of 544K for little apts. all of 1200’s to 1300’s sq feet. Come on, now, those are fantastic prices to receive. There is no way around that. Highest price was this month.

Better look elsewhere for a price meltdown.

By Curious is such a loser

May 24, 2007 6:46 PM | Link to this

He studies craigslist ads for months, he says.

He smirks to himself after some dumbass remark he makes here and thinks he’s a comedian.

Mike Fink, if he ever comes back, needs to take charge of his Bad News Bears and start kicking butt and taking names. Fink’s side is losing credibility daily at this point when you have losers like Curious trying to take up the slack, and some redneck in Alabama espousing the virtues of trailer life.

It is just too entertaining not see what comes next out of these freaks.

It

By 544Kvs567K

May 24, 2007 7:09 PM | Link to this

From maxi earlier on 99 Mizner :

” 2006: 10 sales (+1 unknown)

Average: $567,000

UP UP UP UP UP 27%”

Even throwing out lowest sellers you are still coming up short at 544K.

We will watch rest of year for fun.

Meanwhile,how would you like to be selling a 2Br place in Evergrene, now that desperate sellers of 3/2 s are pricing lower.

That development must be ground zero of flipper disasters.

By Curious

May 24, 2007 8:25 PM | Link to this

A solemn vacation weekend is approaching. Originally called Decoration Day to honor and pay tribute to our military heroes who died so that we can now enjoy the life, liberty, freedoms and good life we now have.

Please, let’s not forget this:

http://www.usmemorialday.org/backgrnd.html

What are you going to be doing?

Personally, and more specific to this real estate thread, we are going up to see the most recently purchased family properties in the mountains of western NC. One is another single family residence being completely remodeled for new local yearly tenants in the booming Cherokee area.

Another, where we shall be staying, is what we call The Farm and have owned for some years. For the time being, it is our extended family summer retreat. It is on 10 acres with a small stream in a rural area outside of Bryson City. This old 3 bedroom, 2 bath house is quite rustic (meaning built from local logs and timber many years ago and with an interesting local history. Caution if you are claustrophobic — the interior ceilings are only 7 feet tall! Why, do not know ?? Would guess to save heat.

Yes, there is inside plumbing, water, and electric.

It is professionally managed by a local real estate company so is cleaned thoroughly after each rental period and certainly not a dump. There is a restricted land-line phone in the house for you to use. Currently though cell phones do not work in this mountainous area and cable Internet connection is coming soon … (NOT SOON ENOUGH!.)

FOLLOWING IS AN ADVERTISEMENT.

The Farm is available for weekly+ rentals when we are not using. If you might be interested, please contact me at dab33483@yahoo.com along with your situation and what you are looking for. I will then reply with more information and/or forward to our local on-site real estate agent for current availabilities, photos, prices, and so on.

Cheers!

By Ghost of a Chance

May 24, 2007 9:05 PM | Link to this

544K:

Coming up short of what???

Those people are getting fantastic prices in the middle of the Doomers’ “crash”!

They are supposed to worry because prices were even MORE outlandish last year?

At almost $425/sq ft, people are just thanking their lucky stars.

+++++++++++++++++++

Not really familiar with Evergrene, every time Fink had me look up a price fall there was a story behind it he didn’t know. BUT, I’m sure if there are price problems anywhere it’s in the middle of nowhere (like Evergrene).

Everyone I talk to has turned into a shortselller. It’s hard for there to be a crash when every foreclosed house is grabbed by a shortseller. With the foreclosure rate somewhere around 1 in 800 in PBC, big banks can afford to lose 50 or 100K on each of these without sustaining lethal damage. In fact, it seems like it is getting pretty routine for the banks.

I asked a friend how long she intended to hold a house she had obtained this way. After all, didn’t she need for the market to improve? “Oh no,” she said. “I’ve already got a buyer for it.”

Only in America.

By To: AP

May 24, 2007 10:07 PM | Link to this

Good post AP. Everything said is true. What a thankless job.

By Nascar Will

May 25, 2007 9:11 AM | Link to this

Nascar Will here.

My neighbor just listed their house for 130k. They paid 59k back in 1997. They are gonna have alot of dough.

Pretty progressive area we live in up here. Last week the Alabama Legislature passed a resolution expressing “profound regret” for the state’s role in slavery and apologizing for slavery’s wrongs and lingering effects on the United States. They’re even building a new Piggly Wiggly in Maplesville, about 45 minutes away by car. (25 if you cut through the river bed behind Uncle Jester’s house.)

I wonder when you guys down in Florida are going to pass a resolution like this? Time to own up, Floridians.

I’ve spent about three hours this morning going through the For Sale listings in South Florida. I’m not really sure what my point is or would be if I posted a full two pages worth of listings here, but it would certainly make me feel better. My wife asks “why are you wasting your time on that RE blog for Palm Beach County, looking through all those want ads for homes down there, we’re not moving down here.” I tell her that I’m just trying to prove to everyone in South Florida that the asking price for homes has been reduced. Then I can point to Tuscalloosa and the fact that our homes are going up in price. It makes me sleep better at night for some reason. Lots of people moving up here, out of South Florida. They tell me taxes too high, insurance too high. Too many people. I go to bars and strike up conversations with people, wondering if they know anyone out on a limb and financially overextended. Just what I do. I’m sitting pretty here. Be happy to show anyone around if they want to come up and have a looksey. Oh yeah, I also watch the local news online from area I used to live. Whenever something bad happens there, I revel in it.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 25, 2007 10:47 AM | Link to this

“My neighbor just listed their house for 130k. They paid 59k back in 1997. They are gonna have alot of dough”

Is this guy for real?

By cw1900

May 25, 2007 10:53 AM | Link to this

AP,

We have agreed in the past on many issues, and I agree with what you say on the politicians, the out of control spending, of course. I just will never follow the crowd and pander to people who don’t need my misplaced sympathy, compassion, and extra tax dollars. These “essential” workers have it better than what most people think. Sorry, the statistics say that, and I won’t buy the need to pander to these people.

What about the construction worker 500 feet up walking on an open girder on some new skyscraper? That’s a dangerous job many people would not or could not do? Where’s the compassion there? I don’t see Disney World honoring them? The point is there untold amounts of dangerous jobs that the media and/or government has not made you feel compassion for.

As Wake Up states, and he is right on the money, the entrenchment, and the drain on our tax dollars of these well above average pension plans, extra benefits, etc is way over the top, and if you can’t see that, I’m sorry. I see the everyday average worker as needing my compassion more than the teachers, the firefighters, and the police officers. Sorry, but working on the public’s dime these days is a gravy deal, everybody knows it. To get mad at me for questioning the fiscal responsibility of such out of control spending and of certain workers milking the system, is totally unwarranted.

There are many people silently agreeing with everything I just said, afraid to open their mouths for fear of public perception of not caring about the poor fireman, teacher, or cop. I think to question such craziness is a heII of alot more patriotic and civic-minded than rubber stamping and pandering to such fiscal insanity.

Our Gov just vetoed a bunch of silly pork. That’s a good start. If he’s trying to win me over, it’s a good start, but any support is always at arm’s length. Charlie, why not double the cuts? Triple them? Let’s see some real action. When the local elected leaders and the media are beside themselves in anger and predictions of doom, then I will know we are at least headed in the right direction.

Next…

I hope everybody has a fun and safe weekend. I think we can forget about real estate for a few days.

Curious, good post last night. Yes, we should be thinking about what made it possible for all of us to enjoy ourselves this weekend and what Memorial Day is all about. Thanks.

I will also thank our fiscally bloated public safety services for all the hard work they will and will not do this holiday weekend. Don’t feel too sorry for them. They’ll have plenty of days off later to spend all of that extra overtime/holiday pay.

To the panderers…. I wonder if the waitress, who’s working Monday morning Memoral Day while her kids stay with some relative or babysitter, I wonder if she is getting a bunch of holiday/overtime pay for serving you and your perfect family your Grand Slam breakfasts and coffee before you all run over to the Memorial Day parade. While you’re there waving your flags and being seen by the people you want to see you there, she’ll be picking up your dirty dishes and her kids will be in front of the TV watching Sponge Bob.

New vacation rental? Curious, you and I have more in common than you think. Have a nice trip. Enjoy the time with you and yours.

cw

By Ghost of a Chance

May 25, 2007 11:11 AM | Link to this

Ghost spots yet another ringer in Boxcar Willie.

A guy with essentially correct grammar, punctuation and spelling (almost impossible for AL right there) can not spell the name of the town he has lived in for a year (one “l” in Tuscaloosa)?

And he doesn’t know that 130K for a house would make it by far the cheapest for sale in the area, on realtor.com?

This guy has lived in Florida and he thinks a potential 70K from the sale of a house is “rolling in dough”?

Sorry, the Ghost isn’t buying this one.

By Rich R

May 25, 2007 11:16 AM | Link to this

I have family coming into town for the weekend, and I won’t be around.

I wanted to wish everyone a very nice holiday weekend, and as Curious posted, please take a few minutes and remember what it’s all about.

Great Post Curious.

Everyone, PLEASE be safe, and look after the kids. It’s too easy to have a few and loose track of things.

I’ll be over to the coast and hoping for some nice winds to push the boat along. Going to try to navigate the cape and get some lighthouse pictures.

I do have to say the past week or so on this blog has been nice. No more name caling.

CW, thanks for the education on the pensions and outragious benefits for police and fire. Now that I am aware of this madness, I once again and with you 100000%!

By me

May 25, 2007 11:31 AM | Link to this

Well, it appears that after a year of waiting, I’m going to be buying a house soon. I’ve got the sellers mid double-digit percentages below list.

I’d like to offer a bit of advice to other potential buyers out there.

Firstly, you will run into a lot of sellers that refuse to see where the market is. Read their comments above, and you’ll see. Never, ever, be afraid to insult them. Just watch what they do to my comments here. But remember, being insulted by the obstinate costs you no money.

Secondly, know what you want, decide on your price, and stick to it. Period.

Also, always be willing to walk away from the deal, no matter how well you’ve done in bargaining. I walked away from four deals during negotiations, and that saved me quite a bit of money, even though those deals were good at the time. With so many houses for sale, if negotiations don’t work out, you just walk 200 feet down the road where there is another house pretty much like the last one.

Start bidding very low. The unmotivated won’t counter (and, horror of horrors, they might call you names). The motivated will counter.

Don’t just check what the home sold for last. Also check to see whether they took out massive HELOC’s. Eliminate homes that did from your list.

Don’t buy where the market is today. You’ll be a big loser by fall. Buy lower.

All of this takes a fair bit of time, but time is very much on your side.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 25, 2007 11:42 AM | Link to this

to “me”:

I hope you are not another turkey who thinks he’s a vulture.

List prices mean nothing, and I don’t care if they are 99% below list.

You MUST get comps for similar properties in the area before proceding.

We don’t need another whiner on here next year complaining his house went down in value.

Good luck, and DO NOT get taken in by “list” or “asking” prices.

By To me

May 25, 2007 11:43 AM | Link to this

Mind offering any further details on your home, such as the actual percentage below list?

Any tips on spotting those “motivated” sellers?

Thanks

By Ghost of a Chance

May 25, 2007 11:58 AM | Link to this

“99ETC” recently showed an example of a property where the list price changed of 50K or more - bith up and down — every few weeks (if his data source is right).

So how do you know your “list” price won’t be 50K less next week?

Folks, don’t be such easy prey. You can not take asking prices seriously. They mean absolutely nothing. You have to research the actual sales prices in the area.

By Rich R

May 25, 2007 12:07 PM | Link to this

Hey Me,

You are 100% correct. Previous sales mean nothing, comps in the area mean nothing.

There are a whole lot of desperate people out there on the brink of financial colapse. This is not your fault.

I firmly beleive that home prices will continue to drop and for some time to come. The flippers and speculators created an artificial market and it’s just now starting to adjust.

Values went so high, so fast, there is nothing you can tell me that would suggest a $150K home in 1999 is worth $450K now. NOTHING. Foolish people, making foolish deals don’t mean it’s worth it.

Remember, not just homes but anything is worth what you can sell it for TODAY, not a penny more.

Any seller that goes nuts over your offer, well that’s just a shame. In the absence of a line of potential buyers, you are it, and it’s their choice to accept or decline your offer. The next seller may very well be a flipper in trouble. That’s your ticket. I don’t feel bad for any of them, it was total greed that drove this market to the current state, nothing less.

If people bought in at the peak and an artificial peak at that, just made a bad business decision, plain and simple.

CNN is reporting that home prices have dropped for the past 9 consecutive months. If you buy at the current market, you may find yourself upside down this time next year.

We all should learn for the past 6 years and act accordingly.

Sorry Max, I know you will disagree, but after all, it’s within your best interest to keep prices high.

6% of a higher number yeilds you a higher commission for the same work. Sad, but very true.

I don’t blame you, I just disagree.

By A.P.

May 25, 2007 12:09 PM | Link to this

The numbers are out. Once again, The Post seems to be behind the EIGHT BALL.

Thanks to the Sun-Sentinel here it is!

The median price in Palm Beach for April is $363,000.

The BOTTOM LINE is the median price is ONLY 3% lower from a year ago!

The median price in Broward County for April is $363,800.

The BOTTOM LINE is the median price is UP 1% from a year ago!

The LEVELING OFF period continues!

Sorry DOOMSAYERS, I don’t see a collapse!

The GREAT NastraFINKus must be on SUICIDE WATCH!

By inquisitive

May 25, 2007 12:26 PM | Link to this

Palm Beach county median single family home prices

March 2007 - $375,100

April 2007 - $376,300

Just a tad more evidence the leveling off period has begun.

Tallyho!

:-)

By me

May 25, 2007 12:38 PM | Link to this

Agreed: List means nothing. Comps are the only real baseline.

I don’t want to play a “real estate guru” on this website. As I’ve learned about real estate this past year, I’m continually surprised at how much there is to know. I don’t know everything, and readily admit that. So take these comments with a humble grain of salt.

It’s hard to spot motivated sellers, and I don’t know of any sure-fire way of picking them out. My method was to keep firing off offers, and wait until I got a bite. That took me a good year. It is possible that I ruled out homes from sellers that were highly motivated (I ruled out every home bought since 2004, and every home that was HELOC’ed). I never even considered townhomes or condos - too volitle (though my guess is that when we’re through with this, the best deals will have been in the townhome/condo market)

By statewide

May 25, 2007 12:42 PM | Link to this

Statewide, the existing-home median price rose 13 percent to $249,700 last month; a year ago, it was $221,100, according to the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR).

By Rich R

May 25, 2007 12:50 PM | Link to this

AP,

You are missing the mark, and in a nuclear kind of way.

As we all know, the Median price is defined basically as the average selling price of homes sold. Half sell for more, and half sell for less.

If you have 75 home selling in the upper markets lets say $750K+ and you have the other 25 at the lower level, that average price skews higher.

As Max can confirm, the upper markets are selling in higher proportion then the “Working Class” homes (

If you use the Median Price as your gauge in this market, you are way off base.

If you want to gauge a market, get out and talk to actual sellers.

Based on what you say AP, if 99 homes sold for $1million, and one home sold for $500K, the median price would be: $995K. Does that make your 2,200sf , square box home what that? Very funny!

Be very careful.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 25, 2007 12:56 PM | Link to this

NOTES ON FAR FIGURES:

1) Once again the Post lies and lies and lies, claiming prices are going down when they are clearly rising.

2) New median of 376,300 is up $1,200 since last month.

3) I didn’t notice a YOY figure, probably because the Post did not want you to know that YOY, we are down a miniscule 2.6% — most likely a statistical dead heat, depending on the confidence level employed.

4) It is nice to see prices moving up on increase volume. This April we sold more than 4 out of every 5 houses we sold last April, so even the gap in volume narrowed a bit.

5) Despite the tiny gap in median price from last April, we are a sliver ahead of April 2005. What I have said before I must reiterate: we have a normal market, and prices are virtually unchanged for April for the years 2005 through 2007 — despite all the baloney you read about bubbles, busts and all the rest of it.

6) Where do we go from here? June 2006 median of 405.5K would be tough to get near, but by September, we could possibly tie or beat 2006 median of 365.5K, and be ahead YOY.

By cw1900

May 25, 2007 1:01 PM | Link to this

me,

I won’t get on you. I agree with your strategy.

Every pieceof real estate I’ve ever owned, I bought off motivated sellers.

Location Location Location…..and then motivated sellers, motivated sellers, motivated sellers…..

I have never purchased a brand new home, however, I will be building a home for the first time on another lake lot I own probably some time in the next 3 years.

Ever piece of real estate I’ve ever made an offer on has been an offer of a minimum of 15% lower than the asking (usually 20-35% lower than asking) and have always looked very closely at comps. If I can’t get a true bargain, I won’t buy, period, end of story.

To say that a cheerleader is going to yell at you is probably wrong, because most cheerleaders here have never paid full retail for any piece of real estate, and you are doing what any successful real estate investor does. You are doing homework, not jumping on a bandwagon, and trying to negotiate yourself some instant equity, and prey on motivated people to get that. There is nothing wrong with that.

That’s probably why I will never buy something from a builder in a new development. The game is against you from minute one, and the new development knows they have what you want. It’s like someone going into to buy a new car only wanting a certain model in a specific color and with certain options. You are screwing yourself by doing that, instead of keeping your options open to other models, other colors, etc. The deal is more important than the model or color.

Buying a brand new home in a new development is always full retail unless you are a broker as Max describes and get a commission on your own sale, etc.

Good luck to you.

cw

By Rich R

May 25, 2007 1:03 PM | Link to this

Forgotten point.

As we know the Working Class families are priced out of the market. A family would need an income in the $160K+ range to buy at current price levels. The problem is the Average Family in Florida earns much, much less.

The current activity is disproportially high in the upper markets as these folks really don’t have an issue with the income/assets etc.

People with money are in and coming to florida.

I will say I have to agree with Easyasabc in one point.

Easy recently posted a comment to the tune of (paraphrasing): There is no middle class in florida, there is the Rich and there is the Poor, nobody else.

That statement, I believe, is becoming increasingly true.

I will say that IF, and I mean a big IF, the state boys come up with something viable in their pursuit for tax relief, you may be able to jumpstart the market somewhat with a portability type thing. Allows some to downsize, and some to upgrade.

Maybe? Don’t hold your breath.

By Ghost of a Chance

May 25, 2007 1:06 PM | Link to this

Rich R,

Please don’t tell people comps don’t matter. Comps are everything in our system of residential appraisal and underwriting.

Unless you have owner financing, it makes absolutley no difference how low a price you negotiate with the Seller. If the comps aren’t there, no financing for you.

++++++++++++++++

Statistics - I would usually expect mean, median and mode to be in the same place in a normal distribution. But perhaps our curve is skewed to the right, as Rich is suggesting, giving high-priced houses more sway over the figures. This could explain why IPRE charts give us such breath-takingly high averages.

Nonetheless, I think the figures we get from FAR are useful, and it is absolutely clear to me that the market has been stable for some time, with prices still untraditionally high.

What is Linda going to do if we are UP YOY by September? Start comparing everything to the 4 weeks in November 2005 when we had record prices?

By Rich R

May 25, 2007 1:12 PM | Link to this

CW,

I’m starting to think we are related. LOL

I have to say, you post above was great. I nominate it as “Post of the Day”.

Rich R

By To Rich R From A.P.

May 25, 2007 1:24 PM | Link to this

Sorry Rich, But where I live prices are HOLDING and people DON’T have to sell.

Overall, It’s NOT as BAD as some are saying!

One would think with all this inventory and the NEGATIVE CAMPAIGN by the MEDIA that the Market would have sunk like the titanic BUT it HASN’T!

Has it?

Even your FORCAST has been OFF. I know just wait and see. You say,” be very careful” regarding my statements. I say this might be the GREATEST LEVERAGE to buy as we speak. You might be the one misleading the herd into thinking that the FLEA MARKET SAVINGS are coming.

Obviously, We don’t know that yet! Time will tell who’s right.

It depends how one sees thing in life. Is the “glass half full or have empty”. I choose HALF FUll!

What is a CRIME is that the Post is MISLEADING the Public!

Look at Ghost Of Max latest entry and it SAYS IT ALL!

Good job Max!

By Rich R

May 25, 2007 1:28 PM | Link to this

Max,

I understand your point; please allow me to clarify mine.

I was simply trying to drive the point that current market conditions should fundamentally influence a buyer’s philosophy for their approach to the market.

I understand, and now believe you work exclusively in the upper markets, and I feel that’s smart. But at the lower levels of the current market, unique forces are now in play. It’s not only a buyers market, it’s rapidly becoming a buyers feeding frenzy. I really do believe this.

I think there is a nice percentage of flippers, speculators, must sellers, estates, and etc. that are either desperate to sell, or very soon to be desperate to sell. It’s all in the numbers, and if you low-ball every offer, sooner or later you will find a desperate seller regardless of reason. That’s smart based on the current conditions. It’s not your fault others didn’t do so well, perhaps you’re just a little smarter.

Bad things happen to good people all the time Max you know that. It’s a cruel world out there and it’s up to YOU, and only YOU to fend for yourself and your family. That’s where the education thing comes in.

Since Real Estate is perceived as an Investment, the goal is to buy low and sell high. If a seller doesn’t want to sell at that price, they simply say NO. But, somebody will say YES.

By Rich R

May 25, 2007 1:39 PM | Link to this

Also,

PBC is currently running in the area of 1 of every 800 homes in some stage of forclosure. When these processes mature, and the homes are DUMPED, anyone within a mile will see an effect. If the home is on your street, guess what, you just lost a few points.

Only time will tell, but so far, i’ve been pretty close.

By Tom Flynn

May 25, 2007 4:08 PM | Link to this

Hey Jeff:

Ever do an article on a local Cost Segregation Engineering company?

It could be very interesting to many investment property owners in the area.

If you are interested in finding out more look at our website:www.qeassociates.com.

I’ld be happy to answer any of your questions.

I also am a local Newman Grad who played for Sam Budnyk & at Notre Dame when Joe Montana was the QB and we won a 77 Nat’l Championship Trophy [fyi]

Hope to hear from you and have a great holiday weekend!!

Tom Flynn

By to Tom Flynn

May 25, 2007 6:32 PM | Link to this

You may not read this blog much, but when on occasion an over zealous salesperson tries to come on here and sneak on an advertisement through a post, he or she gets run out of here so fast, it would make a used car salesman blush.

Tom, any shred of online reputation you are trying to gain has just gone away big time with your self indulging advertisement.

From all of us

PS If you think you can get more sales because you played football with somebody 135 years ago, you are sadly mistaken.

Now go enjoy your weekend, and come back on Tuesday with no advertisements, and maybe you can salvage your self esteem back.

By to tom

May 28, 2007 9:43 AM | Link to this

He’s trying to drum up business by telling us he’s a n old football player!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

Tom, you are the laughing stock of this blog!

What a freakin’ geek!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!