By Average Guy

February 26, 2007 8:37 AM | Link to this

Where can the average guy with an average job buy a house in Palm Beach County? Did you read that 90% of the people in Palm Beach County can’t afford to buy a single-family home here.

By John

February 26, 2007 9:13 AM | Link to this

The average guy with the average job will be able to afford property here in the next year or two….as the market continues its downward tumble….

By cw1900

February 26, 2007 9:27 AM | Link to this

Average Guy, please stop bothering us with your perpetual misery.

Go be average somewhere else in some average place where you can get an average job and live an average life you so desire. I do not want to be average. I don’t want to be like anyone else, and I don’t want to live in Dayton, OH.

How about Peoria, IL? Scranton, PA? Topeka, KS? Sioux Falls, SD? …or your all time favorite, anywhere in Georgia.

If you want to learn how to get ahead and stop boring us with your self pity, why don’t you post a question to Ken/Sea Bright guy? Ask him how to make a life for yourself. He seems like he has what you want…..Success and happiness. Something you do not have, or so it appears.

You are boring and have nothing to say. When you croke, do you really want your tombstone to say, “Here lies Average Guy. He watched ER.”

John, Average guy’s buddy, is equally as boring, and as usual, he comes with no facts, just his mindless dribble. He watches his reruns of Seinfeld every night and then posts here to us how the world is coming to an end in south Florida. West Boynton has alot to do with your misery, John.

Ken/Sea Bright was on target describing the frenzy buyers. His line about the people waiting in line a couple of years ago and thinking they were buying investments, was described perfectly. Bravo.

Today’s PB Post article this morning ( http://www.palmbeachpost.com/business/content/business/epaper/2007/02/26/m1bzinventory0226.html )on inventory showed the typical numbers we have all heard, but one number stood out. The number of SFH’s in inventory in PB County is at a supply of 1.7 months. Hmmm, saturated condos and townhouses, no surprise there, but SFH’s in Palm Beach County, not so many in inventory.

“Palm Beach County is a tale of two cities,” MetroStudy’s Hunter said. “The single-family-home market is going to be aligned in terms of inventory and sales in the next six to 12 months.”

The backlog of unsold new townhouses, however, “may take until 2008 to get fully resolved,” Hunter said. “Inventory will then get down to a normal level, which will stabilize prices.”

Just a thought to rile up the doomers.

I think Easy is dead or he found religion and went to see that dude in NC who thought we in south Florida were the devil.

cw

By Successful Guy

February 26, 2007 9:47 AM | Link to this

Where can a successful guy with a successful career buy a home in Palm Beach County where he doesn’t have to associate with the average guy with the average job? Did you know that 100% of the people like Average Guy in Palm Beach County can’t afford to buy a single-family home here because they flounder in their job every day, and then sit around the local tavern at night bemoaning how the little man just can’t get ahead.

By Carolina Gal

February 26, 2007 10:05 AM | Link to this

With violent crime in much of county up 11 percent in year. As the PB Post.com says this morning. I don’t know why you would want to live down there Average Guy.

Come on up to the Carolinas… A much safer and nicer place to be.

By cw1900

February 26, 2007 10:05 AM | Link to this

To Successful Guy,

You forgot to add that the reason they can’t afford the house is really because of the $500 truck payment for him and the $500 SUV payment for her, and the payments on the $22,000 in credit card debt they racked up by being irresponsible, and the $250 a month they pi$$ away on the combination of extra movie channels on cable and Starbucks every morning, and of course, don’t forget the 42” plasma tv they having hanging on the wall of the apartment that they pay $132.19 each and every month to the Best Buy credit card they thought they were going to pay off in 6 months, but then something else came up.

cw

By inventory

February 26, 2007 10:26 AM | Link to this

What does inventory look like for existing homes ? Thousands of owners trying to bail will be happy to hear new home starts are falling. Tax and Insurance costs still causing many to try getting out. Will be cruel disappointment for them if RE tax relief proposals come to naught. Many potential buyers still don’t want any part of current RE tax and Insurance mess. Once estimate of 4 or 500K home carrying costs done many deals die.

By To CW

February 26, 2007 10:35 AM | Link to this

You’re wrong and have proven, yet again, that you lack a 4th grade reading level.

The 1.7 month supply of SFHs only applies to newly constructed homes, if the only homes purcahsed in the county were those homes.

Face it, there is record inventory and prices are coming down. Inventory also increased from Dec to January, so it doesn’t look like things are getting better.

By maxmoose03

February 26, 2007 10:42 AM | Link to this

Actually, I woudn’t feel very safe in Palm Beach County if I knew Carolina Gal was hanging around Lake Worth. Guys, my advice is to keep your wallet with you while you conduct your business with Carolina Gal. Pay cash and leave the area quickly.

Given that “Carolina Gal” is probably Rich R. in drag, the quality of service you receive will probably rival the quality of the bargain you receive in a land deal with Rich R., where he sells you land he has stolen from a poor, ignorant widow. We would get upset if we saw this happen on “The Soprano’s,” but somehow when it’s a putz like Rich R. no one reacts. Your wallet is not too safe with characters like this walking around.

Of course, it is hard to feel safe with nuts like John running around. Here is a guy with absolutely no use for the facts. It doesn’t matter that SFH’s in PBC were selling for thousands more in December than last September, we’re in a “downward tumble.” John never makes the mistake of confusing “reality”with “realty.” His motto: Don’t confuse me with the facts, my mind is made up. It is stupid and cruel to give people like “Average Guy” false expectations, when prices are rising over time, not falling.

Back later with some impressions on the hilarious blog intro (47 economists prefer Dentine, or whatever).

By cw1900

February 26, 2007 11:08 AM | Link to this

4th grade reading level? Ok, funny. Good one.

I knew that would rile up the doomers.

BTW, how much is your car payment? How many years left until you own that baby? How much did you spend at Starbucks this morning?

Did your wife throw down a bunch of credit card receipts on your desk last night and your heart sunk a little further? Man, oh man, wouldn’t it be nice if your personal financial life was in control so you wouldn’t be so bitter?

I’m sure you’re an ok guy, just stop participating in the misery. It’s not that bad. Don’t let life pass you by.

cw

By Mike Fink

February 26, 2007 11:21 AM | Link to this

Appears inventory is up again this month. This is not suprising, many people remove their listings over the holiday.

http://www.ipre.com/trendg/images/palsld.PNG

Also, the sold number appears soft again.

By Retired Larry

February 26, 2007 12:10 PM | Link to this

You’re hitting a raw nerve with the payment talk. I’ve been telling my son and daughter in law that very thing. They complain how they can’t save up enough money for a down payment, yet they spend money like it’s the xmas shopping season every day.

I’ve told them I have no sympathy, and until they correct their lifestyle, they will never save up enough for a down payment. I’ve also told them that for every dollar they save for a downpayment, I’ll kick in 50 cents, but in order to get my help, they will have to have enough for a 20% downpayment, and they must have cleaned up their credit card bills.

It’s falling on deaf ears. This weekend they were at Pleasure Island. I’m sure they racked up the bills. It is so sad, but it’s their problem, not mine.

The funny thing is, if they sold their two prized possessions (2 Audis), and bought a couple of reasonably priced used cars, they could eliminate the $900 month payments and lower insurance costs.

That means, in 3 years, they could bank over $70,000 and then get another $35,000 from me, if they wouldn’t have those stupid car payments.

Wouldn’t that make a nice downpayment? It will never happen and that is what’s the sad part. It’s simple math. It’s real money. It would be easy to do, but they have to have those stupid cars. My wife and I didn’t live like that. My son makes more money now than I did when I retired, yet, I look back, and we were so far ahead of him and his wife where they are today when we were the same age. I think they spend every dime they bring in.

I wish my son had some friends like you, but unfortunately, they are all like him and spend, spend, spend. The problem is the spending and the priorities, not the cost of taxes and insurance.

Larry

By maxmoose03

February 26, 2007 12:13 PM | Link to this

Once again, IPRE is a local realtor, their data is sanctioned by no one and means absolutely nothing. And Mike Fink is really getting desperate for sources of his b******t.

Speaking of sources of b******t, Jeff now brings us the National Association of Business Economists(?)

This is teriffic. What do you have to do to be “an economist”? Do you have to go to Sears and pay a dollar to get a license? Do you have to wear special underwear, or know some secret handshake? Do you have to have a job? No to all of the above.

If I want to put my name on a business card that says “Medical Doctor” can I? No, I would be subject to arrest (unless I have a license to practice medicine). Can I say “economist” on my business card? Sure can!

Now, if you want to have a laugh, and look at an organization which exists solely for the vanity of its membership, check out the NABE website. Since their inauspicious start in 1959, they have soared to a “worldwide” membership of 2500. By comparison, there are 8000 active FAR members in South Florida alone, after the recent preciptious drop.

So the good folks at NABE asked 47 economists at banks and universities — in other words tellers and grad students, for their impressions. They provided the same old tired BS about housing slowing growth of the economy.

Here’s a little snapshot of the economy for the past year, from one point of view:

S & P 500:

UP 14.5%

Dow Jones Index of US Real Estate :

UP 38%

Where is the growth in the American economy REALLY coming from? Real Estate.

Folks, people like Jeff can print b******t from b******t sources all the time, because you folks don’t bother to check.

I realize you are all busy and you think you should be able to trust newspapers. Unfortunately , it’s not that way.

The PB Post and other papers are going to continue to slide by with this kind of silliness until you hold their feet to the fire.

Come on, economists unite.

“Fidel asked me if I was an economist. I thought he said “Communist,” and I said “Yes.” So he gave me control of agriculture.”

— From the writings of Che Guevara

By Mike Fink

February 26, 2007 12:27 PM | Link to this

Max,

Why would IPRE, or any RE person for that matter, want to show a picture of a housing market imploding? That’s not good for anyone involved in RE; you think the realators are now conspiring to push prices lower as well?

Oh, and BTW, the other stats that are released come from the NAR. Not like they don’t have an agenda as well? Come on, you can grasp all you want to show that this market is not in crash/correction, the numbers just keep rolling in.

I don’t post most of the stuff up here because it has more national focus (sub-primes failing, MTG standards getting tighter, national housing bubble, etc). However, if you would rather have quotes from the Wall St. Journal and NY Times I will be happy to put them up here. Except then you will say that the data they are compiling is national, and that PB is special. Just like every other bubble market out there. :)

Once again, IPRE is a local realtor, their data is sanctioned by no one and means absolutely nothing. And Mike Fink is really getting desperate for sources of his b**t.

By Mike Fink

February 26, 2007 12:34 PM | Link to this

How about this site Max?

4120 condos and SFH for sale in Miami Beach.

82 sold (in 1/07).

I thought all those rich forigners were coming to Miami to buy everything up.

Oh, BTW, in case anyone does not know, Miami is beyond toast. I expect the local govt down there to go BK in the next 5 years because of all the fallout from this housing bust (not that we won’t, espeically if some of these tax plans pass, but that’s beside the point).

Here the site.. You can generate lots of reports there:

http://ewm.com/trendx/

If you want to see the one I did:

Location - Miami Beach

Both RSFH and Condo

Type of report #1

By maxmoose03

February 26, 2007 12:46 PM | Link to this

Finskster - I have no reason to doubt that realtor’s honesty. It’s just that I have the same qualifications as him and his data is no better than mine. I just don’t point people to my websites, because I steadfastly refuse to advertise (for what I do, which is not being a realtor) on a blog — neutral territory so to speak.

I welcome FAR data, Mike, but FAR data appears on a FAR website. I have IDX links to FAR data. If Illustrated wants to put a link to FAR statistics, fine. I certainly have not seen any new statistics on medial.living.net recently.

Finally, Mike, people think you are insane (and they are right) when you talk about the “imploding housing market.” The numbers that “keep rolling in” look better and better every month.

Mike, if you look at FAR data you know prices are RISING, not falling. From September to December the median price ROSE from 365.5K to 368.2K . Meantime, last month foreclosures FELL 42% in PBC.

So WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT, MIKE?

Where is your decline? Last July and August? Yes — slightly. Today? NO. Tomorrow? Anybody’s guess, but not likely.

Let us start with you admitting that prices have risen since last September - by the very FAR data you want to quote. Then you’ll show us where this decline is.

By maxmoose03

February 26, 2007 12:54 PM | Link to this

Mike, I hate to break this to you, but prices are rising in Miami. Check the FAR data — I did.

And if you want to talk about condos, right here in PBC the 2005 to 2006 gain on condos (end of year, not december YOY) was a staggering 15%.

Prices on condos are SOARING. Right here. RIGHT now. Do you understand the wording SOARING, Mike? Do you understand that it is irrational to take a situation where values are soaring and say they are imploding?

I guess you can’t — it would be asking you to understand your own insanity.

By TT

February 26, 2007 12:55 PM | Link to this

Larry,

I hear you. My 51 year old daughter, my 49 years old son, my 46 year old son, and their families are the same way, and they are older than your son, I’ll bet.

Look at what you have to look forward to. I taught my children the value of a dollar, but after awhile, the need to keep up I think took over, and they lost sight of saving for a rainy day many years ago. They own homes, and have some nice things, but I know there’s not much meet on the bones.

This is what I’m doing. I have it set up with my attorney that when I pass on, my estate is going to be released in stages, in increments.

I don’t want them to get their hands on big sums all at once, if it does, it will be gone inside of two years. I’m doing this for their own good. I also cannot bear to know our hard work will be gone in such short order.

It’s too late for my kids, but the hope is their kids will learn something from this when I pass on, and realize their parents acted like drunken sailors. Maybe they will be better stewards of the money when they are older.

Good luck.

By easyasabc is back !

February 26, 2007 1:12 PM | Link to this

Where do I begin?

What the hell happen since I was gone?

Alot of stories written, and alot of anger being vented. I hope the usual 24/7 bloggers who were really going at each other throats, had their astronaut diapers on for that senseless marathon!

When I saw the article about “Is That a Threat”, I thought RCA went “Rambo” against jeff.

I really believe that are some people here should check themselves in that same rehab where Brittney is at! Stay away from RCA’s asylum, we know it is not helping him.

I was in California for a funeral. My uncle passed away. I was about to go back until family wanted everyone stay. He gave everyone gifts in one way or another. All the nephews and nieces received Califonia property. I knew he had wealth, but he was really wealthy. What he did was wonderful for the family. He must have planned this since his wife passed away three years ago. He was a land developer and builder for the past 40+ years. I am busy now with a California attorney that deals with estate planning dealing with inheritance and gift taxes. No, I am not selling the house, it is a gift and I will hold on to. It has a great view of the hills and the pacific ocean in the distance.

I will be around, but I am busy with paper work on various matters with ownership of California property. Yes, the taxes are high, but I am not complaining about it. A nice man who worked very hard in his life, made so many people happy.

Life is good in both Palm Beach and Southern California. It is nice to see snow on the mountains.

easyasabc

By to easyasabc

February 26, 2007 1:46 PM | Link to this

It’s a good thing you are not related to TT.

I thought you got arrested. Oh well.

By Rich R

February 26, 2007 1:49 PM | Link to this

Easy,

Welcome Back, and I’m sorry to hear of your uncles passing.

You’ve been missed.

By mktgettingnearreal

February 26, 2007 2:05 PM | Link to this

5480 N OCEAN DR # A-1-A, Singer Island, FL 33404 Direct ne oceanfront. Awesome views of ocean with privacy. Feels like a home. Totally re-done. Granite counters. All new beige tile floors. Open floor plan. New windows & doors. Beautifully furnished

Reduced: 02/12/07 — $489,000 to $449,000 Price Reduced: 02/23/07 — $449,000 to $399,000 Z762355

By Mike Fink

February 26, 2007 2:07 PM | Link to this

Max,

Well, according to you, I guess all is well in the RE market. I suggest calling David Lerah, Toll Brothers, and CNBC to tell them that prices are soring in RE and that everything is just fine in S. FL.

Come on, you can work the stats any way that you want to, the fact is the prices are down at least 10% from the peak, and more like 15-20% if you really need to sell. I have posted up examples of sales under pervious, as far back as a 2004 sale, and then a 2007 sale for less then 2004 price.

This data cannot be juggled, but I also don’t think that you care to see the real data/numbers, so I suppose it’s really pointless to talk about it.

I suggest you walk through CityPlace, 610 Clematic, One City Plaza, etc and tell all those people how the prices are SOARING on condos. I suggest you wear a helmet/vest before you take such action; if you value your life that is. :)

Make sure NOT to ask them about rent!! They get very senstive that they can’t rent their “luxury” condo for above $1.25/sq ft, when they paid 300-400/sq ft. Trust me, they don’t want to hear about it.

Oh, BTW, the other people you should call are the subprime lenders, specifically the ones who have recently cratered under the buyback pressure because so many loans have gone bad. Tell them not to worry about all the defaults, they will be able to sell for far more then the loan value! Nothing to worry about here.

By Itsarace

February 26, 2007 2:27 PM | Link to this

Some specs now in race to sell before mkt really dips and even small profit hopes die.

eg:

610 CLEMATIS # 426

“Brand new, never lived-in condo overlooking city place. Selling for preconstruction pricing. This open floor plan offers 2 master bedrooms and walk-in closets. The gourmet kitchen with wood cabinets granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances overlooks the spacious family room. “

Price Reduced: 02/08/07 — $330,000 to $319,000 Price Reduced: 02/23/07 — $319,000 to $309,000

Owner paid :Feb-2006 19901/1828 $285,000

By Realist

February 26, 2007 2:30 PM | Link to this

Mike,

Don’t waste your time, max is a real estate shill and you know he is just trying to spin the numbers so he can dump is flops. You can’t turn on the tv or radio or read a newspaper and not hear of the real estate troubles. And what do they say every time? South Florida is ground zero. Even the most ardent real estate bulls now say nationwide the prices will be flat but the “frothier” markets like South Florida will see a “decline” this year.

By Rich R

February 26, 2007 2:32 PM | Link to this

Mike, you are wasting your time with Max.

He’s nothing more then a loser REaltor struggling and sniffing for his next victim.

Don’t bother replying to his post. It’s a waste of your time.

By FEAR

February 26, 2007 2:33 PM | Link to this

WHY IS EVERONE IN THE CAROLIANS SO CONCEREND ABOUTWHAT HAPPENS HERE?

MY HOUSE HAS BEEN LISTED FOR 2 WEEKS, AND WE HAVET EVEN HAD A SINGLE LOOK AT IT, BUT I WILL WAIT IT OUT, I DONT NEED TO SELL FOR 7 MONTHS WHEN MY NEW HOUSE IS DONE BEING BUILT

By ABCMax

February 26, 2007 2:40 PM | Link to this

RIch, I can’t believe you are being so friendly to ABC, when he does nothing but insult you and NC under his MAX alter ego. Oh well, I used to empathize on your behalf, especially when MAX/Easy would spew forth narrow minded irrational tirades against NC being a cesspool state. However, once I heard of your hobby of rasing 200 lb dogs, I had to retract my defense of you. When I think of property used to raise dangerous 200 lb dogs, I can see Confederate flags and a TV tuned to the ‘All NASCAR all the time” station. 200 lb dogs are not pets, they are weapons, and should be treated with the same legal action as handguns.

By Rich R

February 26, 2007 2:54 PM | Link to this

I breed and show English Mastiff’s. GENTLE GIANTS.

By far, the best dog you could ever have.

Easy’s ok, just need to keep up with his meds.

LOL

By Rich R

February 26, 2007 2:55 PM | Link to this

Putting all personal conflicts aside, it’s always nice to acknoledge one’s loss.

Just respect for EAsy and his recent loss.

I still don’t agree with Easy, but I’m still HUMAN>..

By rich R

February 26, 2007 2:59 PM | Link to this

you don’t know much about mastiff’s then.

That’s ok, it’s a lifestyle that must be taken on with a passion.

It’s what makes me tick.

LOL

Then again, I’d rather spend more time with my dogs then most people I meet (i.e. Max).

By brokeowner

February 26, 2007 3:02 PM | Link to this

one thing that is hilarious here is the way Maxeasy rails against Rich for being on the blogs all day…Please Max…is there ANYONE who spends more time on here than YOU? Talk about a guy who needs a life.

Linda Rawls article today was also entertaining. One quote n the article goes “it was investor demand-people buying up homes to flip, rather than people just looking for a place to live.” Gosh Linda…is that breaking news? Even more amusing was the figure that perhaps 20% of new homes were purchased by investors. 20%? Please. Try 60, 70% They act as if this is some new revelation. Anyone with a pulse could tell that the real estate run-up of the last 5 years was fueled almost Exclusively by rampant speculation.

I would love to see a statistic for how many of those homes and condos purchased in the last few years that are actually occupied, are occupied by renters at a loss. Now THAT would be an entertaining statistic.

Max and his various pseudonyms like to claim that rents are rising fast. Thats odd. Tell that to all the condo flippers in new buildings downtown WPB who are renting at a BIG loss, because NO ONE is buying those overpriced condos. And for you bargain hunters out there, even MORE bargains will be coming available soon as they are still building more condo projects downtown. 610 Clematis, the Prado, One City Plaza, the Metropolitan allready have rental bargains galore as we speak. Soon when the Whitney opens for business, that will mean 200 more choices for you bargain conscious renters.

Max max max, Im surprised that one who claims to be so imformed as you would not understand the most basic economic principle of supply and demand. Rents can only rise when DEMAND outstrips SUPPLY. Where in West Palm Beach do you see any sign of demand outstripping supply? I would like to know. You see Max, in this topsy turvy world of economics and capitalism, for every rise, there is an opposing fall. Demand was up, prices went up. Now that demand has dropped with a thud, prices MUST drop to bring supply and demand back to a balance. Hey renters, dont let bitter money losing speculating blowhards like easymax scare you from renting. Those rents arent going anywhere but DOWN over the next couple of years.

By maxmoose03

February 26, 2007 3:09 PM | Link to this

Fink - you love to spatter the walls with statistics, now that the statistics are 1000% on my side, suddenly statistics don’t mean anything.

Come off it guys. There are tens of thousands of buildings in PBC. I always hear about the same one from every one of you - 610 Clematis.

Obviously, 610 Clematis wasn’t such a great deal, out of all the buildings people could have bought at the time. I would not have bought there, personally. But, unlike you guys, I personally know many of the owners in 610 Clematis, and know how they can fix their problems. Most of them just aren’t bothering.

We did have a spike in prices after the hurricane, for obvious reasons — there was a shortage of houses that didn’t leak.

No reasonable person would suggest that real estate prices should be at a record every month, and never ever consolidate.

To me, a median SFH of 368K is one that I, as an owner, am more that happy with. I don’t care if it was over 400K for one month or two moths or 20 minutes, whatever it was.

Our prices are higher this year than September of last year, and the overall trend, over time, is way up. A 5% increase in house prices will now mean about 18K, not 6K like just a few years ago, so in terms of high prices, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. Going the other way, if prices get lower, it will take increasingly huge per centage drops to result in a much lower price.

Regardless of anything, the prices are the prices. Houses are selling. Condos are selling. People are making money, not losing money, and the simple fact is you guys are full of s**t. No matter how you spin it, you guys are the losers — not - GENERALLY speaking - people who bought.

By Generally

February 26, 2007 3:22 PM | Link to this

Specifically speaking, speculators who bought in 2006, and still holding, better have long-term fallback positions.

They are going the way of shortsellers caught on wrong side of mkt.

By Big Daddy

February 26, 2007 3:25 PM | Link to this

All I can say is from reading your posts over the last few months that you all need to get lives or talk smoke or walk breaks at work. Leave the small screen be.

The housing market is this: Boom is over, speculators are holding out to avoid loss, people who bouoght more than 10 years ago can be flexible and their belwo market sales will drive down prices of ho-hum homes built in so-so locations between 1982 and now. Homes built between ‘66 and ‘82 will have to be in spectacular neighborhoods to retain a portion of the crazy value people paid in their frenzy. Homes in older neighborhoods like Northwood or El Cid south will not move because people won’t pay too much for an old piece of crap no matter how much lipstick it has on. Those people are better off sitting it out until someone wants to do teardowns and assemble again.

By maxmoose03

February 26, 2007 3:32 PM | Link to this

ABCmax - I think you got it wrong. One of the 200 lb. dogs is Rich R.’s wife.

I am glad you are starting to get the picture about what, exactly, Rich R. represents. Maybe you can talk it over with him at the next Klan rally.

Broken Owner —

You remind me of a Professor in Grad School. He taught General Systems Theory, which, unfortunately , turned out to be mostly advanced math.

However, some of his simpler ideas were useful. One of them was the function of “Arguing with an Idiot.” He demonstrated that this was a constant function, in that no matter the input you presented, the output was always “No. No. No.”

The “Arguing with an Idiot” function describes arguing with you, because it doesn’t matter what the input is. You will just change the input to your liking. If Linda says in her article 20% investors, you will make it 70%.
If the FAR says unequcivocally that prices are rising, you will have them falling. If this newspapers prints that foreclosures are down 42% — and they did just last week, you will have them rising. If this newspaper prints — and it did — that rents are going up quickly, you will have them falling.

In mhy own little world, the same house that rented out for 1400/month 2 years ago, I can now rent out for $2500. No negotiating with renters either — the price is the price, 3 months in advance, thank you. Take it or leave it.

SO if you bought into the wrong building, or you don’t have landlording skills, or you were under-capitalized, or you just aren’t a very smart buyer, it’s YOUR problem. Other people are still building fortunes in real estate every day.

Personally, in your case, I think you’re just an idiot, and nothing you do in life is going to be a rousing success. Would that about describe your life so far, Mr. B-O?

Gee, how did I know that?

By Broke Owner

February 26, 2007 3:46 PM | Link to this

Max,

I speak of Downtown WPB properties because thats where I live. I couldnt care less about suburban sprawl, and other far off lands not within walking distance of the Intra Coastal. TO me, the ONLY reason to deal with the humid swamplike climate down here is to be close enough to the coast that you can enjoy the ocean scents and breezes. Why on earth people live west of the Turnpike, I can’t fathom. If you’re gonna be that far inland, may as well go live in Belle Glade where you can buy a house for $50,000!

Anyway, Max is ignoring the simple facts. You can walk in anyone of those new condo buildings downtown WPB (Prado, City Plaza, Metropolitan, and yes, 610 Clematis too) and have your choice of brand spanking new condo units to rent at a price less than half of what the speculating owner is paying out every month in mortgage, taxes, HOA, etc… If people were BUYING those condos Max, why the heck would so many desperate flippers be willing to rent them out at a BIG loss?

On a side note, as more and more renters fill these new condo projects, that will hurt the market even more for sellers. After all, would YOU pay good money to BUY in a building filled with renters who take no care or concern about how they treat the common areas, as they have no personal investment in the property. I sure wouldnt. You watch how quickly the common areas of those new ‘luxury’ condos (pool, fitness center, etc..) get trashed due to all of the renters in the building who dont care. Watch and wait. In a few years, some of those ‘luxury’ condo buildings will be forced to turn into all rental properties due to extreme lack of owner occupied units.

Besides downtown, you will also see tons of outlying recent condo conversion properties revert back to rental communities, and some even back to low income rental properties. Can you say ‘Executive Drive’? In five years, ALL of those properties along Executive drive between PBLakes blvd, and Clear Lake will become low income rental communities. I can’t believe that ANYONE would commit years of hard earned money to BUY a place on Executive dr. Talk about having no foresight. Can you say ‘The Villages’? They will be next in line for rapid devaluation.

That doesnt bother me. IM only here to finish schooling thanks to Florida’s generous financial aid that applies to anyone who has lived her more than a year. (I’ve been here less than two) Also I appreciate the unemployment compensation IM getting since I got laid off my FEMA hurricane recovery gig. Thank you Florida! And thank you Florida RE speculators who allow me to enjoy high end City Place lifestyle at a bargain rate rent! I am enjoying the low cost high class lifestyle, attending university at in state rates, and unemployment paying my rent. As soon as I graduate, I will easily break my lease, take my money and diploma, and go back to a real city with real culture, and REAL PIZZA I might add, Chicago, and buy a place using the money I saved down here by renting from a desperate flipper!

THANK YOU FLORIDA!!

By notonlyClematis

February 26, 2007 3:52 PM | Link to this

403 SAPODILLA AV # 308 2/2

provides world class appointments w/ roof top sky terrace & more… Cross over to city place or venture down clematis street. Split bedroom suites

Price Reduced: 02/03/07 — $409,000 to $359,000

PAPA :Sales Date Oct 2006 Price 325,053

It does look like some spec-folk are trying to bail quicker. Good Luck, beware the stampede.

By Max, you're full of it

February 26, 2007 4:02 PM | Link to this

Max, you are so full of bull$%^& that its kind of funny. 3 months in advance for rent? If you get some idiot to pay that, then more power to you. But somehow I think that your financial condition is the furthest thing from the truth.

By Rich R

February 26, 2007 4:12 PM | Link to this

Max, You are so full of crap, I can’t take it anymore.

Has everyone seen the exchange of posts that took place last friday on the Tsumani blog?

It’s quite entertaining and max really shows his/her colors.

Just way too funny from a starving realtor.

btw, my dogs earned over $60K last year; probably more then you did Max.

Just too funny.

You are such a loser.

By maxmoose03

February 26, 2007 4:29 PM | Link to this

Yes Rich, it was funny how you spent all day looking up public records of people, I don’t even know, calling up people you don’t know and getting hung up on, allowing me to put every facet of your life on trial, exposing your private business, being insulted, having your family insulted — gee Rich. You didn’t miss much, did you?

The really astonishing thing is how easily I manipulate you. I can get you started all over again if I want to, just by leaving clues I am Michael Berry.

You are hopeless, Rich.

We will let the people who laughed their asses off at you all last week decide who the loser is. (Now Rich will log on as 20 different people, all with the same grammatical errors.)

Unlike you or your dog, Rich, I don’t need to earn anything. Sorry you are not from the class you would like to be.

By Rich R

February 26, 2007 4:49 PM | Link to this

With all the things i posted, you don’t know who I am. So, no love loss.

On the other hand Max, you’ve been totally exposed for what you are. Nothing more then a starving, frustrated Realtor, looking for your next victim.

You’re just too funny.

You didn’t manipulate anything except your RE transactions, screwing other Realtors and sellers.

You are such scum.

You wish you had what I do. You loser

GO AWAY!

By Dan

February 26, 2007 5:07 PM | Link to this

Your somewhat right successful guy.Alot of people blow there money on booze partying all the time throwing there money away and they are jealous of people who work time and ahalf too own a house,but there are also people who moved down here before the outrages price hike and really can’t afford it.They should of known before moving here about the price hike.Thank goodness I bought my house 15 years ago for under 85.000.Now I could move to TN,SC,GA OR NC,paying cash without a mortgage.Thank you,PBC.

By maxmoose03

February 26, 2007 5:23 PM | Link to this

Rich - since you think you know who I am - come over to my office and visit me.

Don’t be a coward, Rich.

Show all these people how brave you are, before I get emboldened and ask your daughter to join me in the Cote d’Azure next week (assuming she is of legal age), all expenses paid, of course. Does she like to shop?

There’s always your wife, but she is probably fat and ugly.

By Mike Fink

February 26, 2007 5:23 PM | Link to this

Max,

2500/mo for rent? If you don’t mind my asking, what would that home sell for? Because, 2500/mo should rent you nearly a 1M dollar home in this market.

Here is one, over 4000 sq/ft, 2500 a month.

http://westpalmbeach.craigslist.org/apa/285082647.html

4BR in Olympia for 2K a month:

http://westpalmbeach.craigslist.org/apa/284777943.html

Here is a 5BR in Wellington for 2500/mo:

http://westpalmbeach.craigslist.org/apa/284953684.html

And honestly, all of those are asking prices, I would imagine you can knock at least 10% off those prices with just a phone call, probably more.

Once you get above ~1500/mo the rent/price ratios get totally nuts. Even in the 800-1500 market, the numbers are crazy, but once you start talking about SF homes and expensive communities, the numbers get totally out of hand.

Want to know why? Because of affordability, that’s why. There are not that many people out there who want to rent and can afford north of 2K a month for rent.

2K/mo for rent means you should be making about 8K/mo or 106K/yr. Yeah, lots of people lining up in that category. When you go up to 3K, the number gets even smaller. There are just not that many people who can afford that kind of rent, and there are 100’s of homes in that price range (because people overpaid like crazy for the home, and are now desperate to get something, anything out of it).

On a final note, one fun thing about a condo filled with renters. As the number of renters goes up to a certain level, your ability to get a loan to either buy, or refinance the condo drops. This is for exactly the reason described above, lenders are worried that much of their investment is in the “community” in a condo building, too many renters means the community really does not care about the common areas (or that’s the idea). Also, wait until those owners start to walk, and the condo fees don’t get paid. Oh yeah, that’s going to be tons of fun for those who actually bought those units to live in. Prepare for some heartstopping assesements.

Condos need about 80% occupancy, on average, to stay viable. As the number drops below that, the numbers start to drop off quickly. HOAs get raised, more people bail out, and the cycle repeats.

This is very similar to the credit cycle we are seeing now. Credit tightens, so fewer people can refi or get a loan, which pushes home prices and defaults lower. Then credit tightens further as the appetite for MBS will wane as the losses mount. And the cycle continues until traditional lending standards and normal pricing returns.

The death of the no money down, interest only (or negative AM) loan is truly the endgame for the RE market here, and thorughout all the bubble areas. If your only options are 80% LTV and a 30 year note… Look out below.

By cw1900

February 26, 2007 7:30 PM | Link to this

Thanks Larry.

cw

By maxmoose03

February 26, 2007 7:48 PM | Link to this

Folks, this is the part I like. When a screwball gets so frustrated and disoriented that he blows his cover.

SO: Broke Owner -

Which is it? Are you a broke owner, or a ne’er do well renter?

I’ll tell you what you are. You are a college weiner who never earned a dime in his life, and who comes to the blog trying to win a point with false arguments. For the sake of delicacy I will not tell you what culture you are from.

Better get used to being a parasite, because even when your “education” is done, it will be all you will be qualified to do. Whether it is welfare or Daddy’s money, you will be living off of other people your whole life.

In fact - I would even contribute. I would buy you 1-way ticket to Chicago—if I thought it would keep you there.

Maybe prices will move up in your building once people hear you’re gone. :-)

NEXT CASE!

notonlysapodilla -

That unit - 308 - was purchased from the builder. Yes, the builder would hav3e liked an astronomical price, no the builder is not suffering in the least at 325K. It just shows you how much your “reduced” list means — nothing. Nice try, “Prices.”

NEXT!

OK, Rich R. is already taken care of — maybe I will have him spend all day tomorrow looking up property records on a stranger.

I’ll see how my mood is.

NEXT!

By theraceison

February 26, 2007 10:34 PM | Link to this

Another specker streaking for the exit :

630 S Sapodilla 4416 2/2 IMMACULATE, NESTED IN THE HEART OF WEST PALM BEACH,WALKING DISTANCE TO FAMOUS RESTAURANTS,THEATERS ,SHOPS AND MINUTES TO INTRACOASTAL AND BEACH. $339K

Papa- last sale 299,900 may-2005.

taxes $6,052 .Ins ? HOA , commissions , fees at buying selling, not much wiggle room to make hassles worthwhile. No wonder the late entrants to the spec game are bailing ASAP.

If no help for that crowd soon on RE Tax and Ins, this will be a reverse land rush.

By maxmoose03

February 27, 2007 3:25 AM | Link to this

I should have thought of this for the one earlier at the Metro, but the price didn’t seem out of line there.

OK, all you amateur detectives are going to love this one, and like most things that frustrate you, you will dismiss it.

Let’s say I own some condos in recent projects in Palm Beach County (and in fact I do). Let’s say you take my name, look up PAPA, and see a sale amount for my sale. That’s the amount I paid. Right?

Wrong.

Most of the developers offered cash give-backs at closing. This could range from 0 to 5%, typically, in the early 2000’s. At the end of last year some of them were going considerably higher, as I mentioned months ago on this blog.

Also, an extraordinary number of these apartments were bought by licensed real estate professionals. Hence, the developer paid a commission as well. A while back these commissions may have been 4 or 5 per cent. More recently they have been outright bribes of as much as 10%.

In my own case, PAPA overstates what I paid by about 8%. In more recent deals, it’s probably quite a bit more.

So depending on the building and who the buyer is, PAPA might be far from from accurate.

I have also mentioned in the past that wholesale buyers such as my friend Mr. S. buy typically 20 apartments in a building at a time, for one lump sum. They then assign arbitrary prices to the individual units so deeds can be recorded. The price may or may not mean something.

In any event they buy a couple of dozen units at discount, fully expecting to carry them empty for at least 2 years. If they get some pittance like $1000 a month for rent, it’s icing on the cake.

SO: I’m sorry to disappoint all you R/E Dick Tracey’s, but you are not going to know what someone paid for a unit unless you know the players. Depending on who it is, I might be able to find out. You can not.

But take heart. Even if you can not be Dick Tracey’s, you can still be Dicks.

By listings

February 27, 2007 8:22 AM | Link to this

As always maxi, very interesting. So what is the group that actually owns the listings below ? The names listed at PAPA are just conveniences, right ?

Another specker streaking for the exit :

630 S Sapodilla 4416 2/2 IMMACULATE, NESTED IN THE HEART OF WEST PALM BEACH,WALKING DISTANCE TO FAMOUS RESTAURANTS,THEATERS ,SHOPS AND MINUTES TO INTRACOASTAL AND BEACH. $339K

Papa- last sale 299,900 may-2005.

taxes $6,052 .Ins ? HOA , commissions , fees at buying selling, not much wiggle room to make hassles worthwhile. No wonder the late entrants to the spec game are bailing ASAP.

If no help for that crowd soon on RE Tax and Ins, this will be a reverse land rush.

http://www.co.palm-beach.fl.us/papa/aspx/sales/search_results.aspx?styp=general&stno=630&pdir=S&st=Sapodilla&sufx=AVE&ptdir=&city=&zip=&method=address&cidx=&adlfilter=

403 SAPODILLA AV # 308 2/2

Price Reduced: 02/03/07 — $409,000 to $359,000

PAPA :Sales Date Oct 2006 Price 325,053

http://www.co.palm-beach.fl.us/papa/aspx/sales/search_results.aspx?styp=general&stno=403&pdir=&st=Sapodilla&sufx=AVE&ptdir=&city=&zip=&method=address&cidx=&adlfilter=

By amtquestion

February 27, 2007 8:41 AM | Link to this

How do you guys avoid amt deduction snags if income over 400K ?

By Mike Fink

February 27, 2007 8:53 AM | Link to this

Housing slump driving us into recession?

We're in the midst of a classic boom-bust credit cycle in housing,'' says Andy Laperriere, managing director at International Strategy & Investment Group in Washington.And the bust is just beginning.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=apQSOy.1rjjA&refer=home

By John

February 27, 2007 9:08 AM | Link to this

Just looking at data from several boom states up north…Wow 25% plus declines from a year ago! Jan 06-Jan 07

By Mike Fink

February 27, 2007 9:23 AM | Link to this

Oh boy.. Get ready for an interesting day on the markets today. There is so much negative news that came yesterday night/today that the market is going to be very, very exciting today.

I have never seen CNBC open the market with this much negative sentiment/news. I think, if nothing else, it’s going to be an interesting day.

By curious

February 27, 2007 11:38 AM | Link to this

re the assessors site posted above ,what is meant by condo being for sale at lower than value taxed at ? would new buyer pay lower than tax listed ? example —

http://standrewscountryclubhomes.com/listings/ListingDetail.ASPX?LID=22143422

condo listed for 279,000. Taxable value on Palm Beach tax site 340,000, taxes 7,834. Am I at correct sites ?

By condo

February 27, 2007 11:58 AM | Link to this

The bldg at link has many units competing to sell, that is why price now lower than tax assessment. New tax S/B approx 2% of final new selling price. PBC govt ain’t gonna like this. The unit in link has been on mkt for a while

Price Reduced: 10/20/06 — $324,000 to $319,000 Price Reduced: 11/03/06 — $319,000 to $299,000 Price Reduced: 02/18/07 — $299,000 to $279,000

HOA $358 a month, taxes, insurance, utilities, etc,etc, on top of mtg has cut number of buyers who can mtg qualify with tighter screening by lenders.

By curious

February 27, 2007 12:07 PM | Link to this

If properties stay on market at lower than assessed value and don’t sell for very long periods, can’t owners request reduction of taxes, based on property never selling at assessed value ?

By Mike Fink

February 27, 2007 2:21 PM | Link to this

From the national housing front:

The composite month-over-month Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index of 10 metropolitan areas declined 0.8% to 222.01, unchanged year-over-year, S&P said on its Web site. The composite month-over-month Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index of 20 metro areas showed a 0.7% drop in December, a 203.07 reading, and a 0.5% year-over-year gain.

“The slide at this point is a good deal steeper then we saw at the beginning of the decade and we don’t see any sign of a bottom,” David Blitzer, S&P Index committee chairman, told CNBC. “These are the worst numbers in at least ten years.”

Blitzer also told CNBC that the impact of the subprime mortgage market could further depress home prices: “The damage from the subprime mortgage market probably hasn’t shown up in home prices yet,” Blitzer said. “That will take a lot of buyers out of the market, and fewer buyers probably means weaker prices and less hope of a turnaround.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/17361391