By Go Easyasabc!

December 21, 2006 05:42 PM | Link to this

Not to worry, Easyasabc knows more than all those guys put together. Remember, AS WE SPEAK PRICES ARE RISING!!!

By maxmoose03

December 21, 2006 06:39 PM | Link to this

WOW. Down 3.7% next year. I wish I could do as well in the stock market!

Prices ARE going up in the long run, and will have to jump again in Florida to achieve balance with almost any market in the country where people want to live.

If you guys want the shock of your lives, try moving up North again, or wherever you came from. You are STUCK.

By Don

December 21, 2006 07:02 PM | Link to this

The meaning of all of that Some media is the whack You believe it’s true, it blows me through the roof Suckers, liars get me a shovel Some writers I know are damn devils For them I say don’t believe the hype Yo Chuck, they must be on a pipe, right? Their pens and pads I’ll snatch ‘Cause I’ve had it I’m not an addict fiendin’ for static I’ll see their tape recoreder and grab it No, you can’t have it back silly rabbit I’m going’ to my media assassin Harry Allen, I gotta ask him Yo Harry, you’re a writer, are we that type? Don’t believe the hype

By Smart Buyers

December 21, 2006 07:18 PM | Link to this

Yes, I am one of those snowbirds up north waiting to come down to buy. First we enjoy the holidays with our family and friends, but we will be there shortly. We have been following your market and your comments there.

From what we are reading there is that you can find good deals and pay less by buying a FSBO.

We have worked hard up here all our lives and even though we made good money, we don’t feel like giving $35,000 to realtors for $500,000 home with a 7% commission.

When the home prices went up, the realtors should have adjusted their numbers for commissions instead of being so greedy. Do the realtors do any more work for a $800,000 home over a $500,000 home?

It won’t be that easy for the realtors this season to pull the wool over the eyes of the buyers because they have the tools and can find the FSBOs themselves.

The housing costs there are a bargain compare to our area. It is true, you will have sticker shock yourselves should you ever decide to move out of Florida to any other location in this country.

By maxmoose03

December 21, 2006 07:51 PM | Link to this

Smart Buyers: Considering you are so smart, you certainly have things backwards. It’s the seller who pays a realtor, not the buyer. You should be SELLING as a FSBO. Looking for a FSBO to buy isn’t going to save you anything. The reason the FSBO is a FSBO is that the seller wants to keep the commission - not give it to you. By the way, where on earth do realtors get 7%? There must be some awfully gullible people up there.

By Signed

December 21, 2006 08:03 PM | Link to this

“I wonder, if I move back up to Port Chester, I wonder if that little bar by the train station is still there?” The drunk people from CT would go cuz it stayed open til 5am……hmmmm, I’m thinking of Port Chester…”

Signed,

Dania Beach

By Mike Fink

December 21, 2006 08:06 PM | Link to this

I don’t have much to add, except that David Learah is an idiot. He is the housing booms most vocal cheerleader, and has coined to some totally insanse phrases (anyone remember “South Fl is working off a new economic model”?). Yeah, it’s a new model, one that does not work you moron! :)

Anyway, to see him saying prices are going to go down further… Well, it’s just stunning. Nothing but stupidity comes out of his mouth.. I am almost encouraged to go buy, because, without fail, he is always wrong.

Oh well, this time he actually has math/statistics on his side. Although his idea of a correction is a totally different ballgame. When he tells me S. FL is going to fall 15% next year.. That’s when it’s time to buy. :)

By STEVE

December 21, 2006 08:46 PM | Link to this

Hey Port Chester,I dont know about the little bar by the railroad,but I do remember Manleys I was one of the buzzed patrons coming over from Fairfield county,CT in the 1970s when drinking age was only 18 in NY, 21 in CT.Come to think of it thats one reason I came down here in the 70s ,drinking age 18,could park and drink on Ft.Laud. Beach,wet tshirt contests,the original spring break.Ahh yes the very good ole days when we were to poor and young to worry about real estate investments,up and down brokerage accts. etc.

By Sean Olender

December 22, 2006 12:47 AM | Link to this

My name is Sean Olender and I’ve been expecting a housing bust since 2002. The shift to lax lending and mind boggling repayment terms 2003 to 2006 surprised me and prolonged the boom longer than I imagined.

Clients come to my office with incomes of $45K to $60K who have taken $600K or $700K interest only ARM mortgages to buy houses with ZERO down. A guy was in last week who was 22 and worked in construction with an income of $45K and a $700K neg am mortgage on a house he closed on 11/2006. These loan to income ratios are unbelievable. I wouldn’t be so amazed if it was one person, or three. But it’s almost every person who walks into my office. The most disturbing part is none of them understands any of their loan terms — not even the interest rate. They only know their monthly payment and they don’t know it will change in the future. They don’t believe me when I point out the terms in their own loan after they bring in their papers.

But the one thing that informed me for sure the boom was over and the downturn had begun was when a friend of mine bought a condo in a suburb of St. Paul. This friend is partly supported by parents and probably works 20 hours a week.

Bubbles in any asset (stocks, bonds, real estate, beanie babies, etc.) are defined by price increases as outsiders pile in to buy the asset. People on the outside see and hear about the money being made and want some of the action. The increased demand results in a self fulfilling prophecy that drives up prices. Eventually there are no ‘greater fools’ to pile in and at that moment the market shifts. It’s like musical chairs when the music stops.

Asset bubbles function like a Ponzi scheme but because the action isn’t controlled by a single person or group, it’s legal.

It’s been a long time waiting, but my friend signed papers in December 2005 and closed in January or February 2006. That for me is proof positive that the top was reached. I had lunch with an economist friend of mine in May 2006 and told him that the top was reached a few months earlier and he didn’t believe me. I drew a graph and he kept it. We’re having dinner tomorrow night and I expect I will be treated for my foresight because the data is bearing out my predictions at a slightly faster pace than I’d suggested at our last dinner.

Low rates aren’t going to save this. The fact that rates are near 45 year lows and the market is in free fall indicates that this is about more than rates. If rates stay low, this will be a terrible, drawn out slumping market with significant price depreciation, but probably causing only a short recession in the broader economy — perhaps two or three short recessions as we skip along the bottom of this mammoth credit bubble. But if rates should rise 1 or 2 points, the fast credit and money supply contraction from bad loans being written off might spell a depression.

And I know that all of this has started from the fact that a single person bought a single condominium. It means there’s no one left on the outside waiting to get in. No matter how loose the credit is, absent digging up corpses and giving them stated income I/O mortgages, there’s simply no one left — no ‘greater fool’ to rescue everyone who is in the market now — because I’m fairly sure that everyone is now in the market.

Having a fixed rate loan and not having to worry about foreclosure is nice, but a careful thinker will realize that it’s nicer for the bank than the borrower. If you buy a place for $161,000 and have no problems making the payments, but four years later someone buys an identical place next door for $98,000, it’s hard to feel good about being able to afford one’s mortgage payments. Not least it will make it almost impossible for a large group of people to freely move about because even if they can afford to make their mortgage payments, they won’t be able to afford to sell their houses without a deficiency judgment and the resulting credit stigma (which in my view is better than taking a $60,000 after tax hit to assets on an income of $25,000 a year).

The larger economic and social effects of this bubble will be very different than the last. This time those piling into the market weren’t day traders, investors, risk takers. This time it was EVERYBODY and that’s going to make the ride down have disturbingly broad effects on American society.

By fabu

December 22, 2006 06:17 AM | Link to this

Sean - you are very wise - and see the whole picture. I too have friends that are in houses they have no business owning. When a person making $45,000 can get into a house that’s over half a mil, something is definitely out of wack. Throw in the higher taxes and insurance on top of the payment and I just don’t know what people are thinking. All I have to say to the others is de-nial ain’t just a river in Egypt. Something has got to change - is everyone’s house going to be worth a million one day? That would be great - but I sure don’t see salaries going up like that. And, don’t we need other people living here other than rich tourists? No wonder Florida is now becoming the “foreclosure state.”

By Mike Fink

December 22, 2006 06:27 AM | Link to this

Sean,

Well said. An excellent explanation of the true state of the national housing market. It was the credit/lending standards that allowed this bubble to grab a national focus (rather then just regional).

If you buy for 161, and someone buys for 98K a few years later; it’s an economic disaster (for most of us anyway). 60K is a lot of money to me, not to mention all the sunk costs (taxes, upkeep, insurance) that you have lost throughout the years.

By Mike Fink

December 22, 2006 06:30 AM | Link to this

When a person making $45,000 can get into a house that’s over half a mil, something is definitely out of wack.

Yes, they something is most definately out of whack!

Standard lending standards would say between 2-4 (I think 4 is high) times your income to purchase a home. So, if you make 50K, your home should cost between 100 and 200K. Lenders have been using up to 10X income for lending (as your friends have done). That’s crazy, you cannot services the interest on that much debt with a 45K salary, let along deal with housing expenses/insurance/taxes, etc, etc.

Totally insane.

By essessemm

December 22, 2006 08:10 AM | Link to this

Great post Sean. Nice synopsis of what’s ACTUALLY going on in real estate - and YES, that includes South Florida as well.

By I still believe Easy

December 22, 2006 09:01 AM | Link to this

I don’t care what Sean or all those “experts” say, I still believe Easy and PRICES ARE GOING UP AS WE SPEAK!!!

By I still believe Easy

December 22, 2006 09:06 AM | Link to this

I don’t care what Sean or all those “experts” say, I still believe Easy and PRICES ARE GOING UP AS WE SPEAK!!!

By easyasabc

December 22, 2006 09:27 AM | Link to this

Maxmoose, there are many Realtors out there that want 7% commission. And these are not Worth Ave. Realtors either ( or is it eyether?). I am talking about C-21, I.P. and other national companies. I know many people out there know this.

I have heard about 98% of buyers that come to Realtors, have 0% down for a house. The problem is that many future first time buyers need to learn how to save and sacrifice to obtain their dream. There must be some whacked out economic professors in college these days teaching the kids of a new eonomic business formula that will sure to fail. These professors last jobs must have been Enron or Worldcom with their thinking.

I do think when a seller uses a Realtor, they tack on to the price of what they want to clear. Yes, the buyer also pays part of the commission price of the Realtor. I still say going through FSBO is the best way to save money on both sides.

Are people buying today on the price? Location? or the home layout?

If you are buying because of the price, then you didn’t get what you really wanted due to lack of money the buyer had. If you bought on the location, then you are in the area which you wanted. If not, then it was due to lack of funds on the buyers part. If you are buying due to a certain style of the house or room size layout, you filled your family needs. Who wants to buy, and have to move again in two years due to family growth? Average family stays seven years in a residence.

Sometimes, you cannot expect to get everything you want in a house or a condo.

Many first time buyers want to go straight to the top, but you need to start at the the bottom step of a ladder to get to the top.

easyasabc

By Come on Easy

December 22, 2006 09:48 AM | Link to this

Easy, don’t let these gloom and doomers get you down. Tell them all how PRICES ARE RISING AS WE SPEAK!!

By Tom Jones

December 22, 2006 09:49 AM | Link to this

It’s nice to talk about income to expense ratios, tax and insurance woes, but thats not whats important here. While important to an original resident of florida as it was, it has little determination to the future of Fl. While true we are in the early stages of a correction which will likely take 2 more years before true upward movement begins, we must realize that we are most importantly in the middle of a reallocation of highest and best use, in this case, its residents. While sad that a construction worker can no longer afford that 3/2 on 1/4 of an acre, ultimately he is no longer the appropriate user for such product. Lets not forget that Fl. is still a desireable place to live which affords prosperity and a high quality of life. The reality is, PEOPLE HAVE MONEY IN THIS WORLD, and someone more well off then the average person will pay to enjoy a lifestyle far exceeding average. So the average Joe can no longer afford the american dream in S. Fl. Infill of people who have already achieved the american dream will be ready to take their place, well, at least their real estate. So the average income person can no longer prosper in S. Fl. Thats ok, they can sell, move else where and move up to a new standard of life. While a full shift to highest and best user will take some years, it will continue to happen and real estate prices will once again continue to increase.

By gatorcane

December 22, 2006 10:09 AM | Link to this

Sean you are 100% correct. You cannot expect to keep interest rates low forever. I almost feel that its a desperation move by the Fed to keep the economy afloat.

If you think about it this housing boom was the result of the tech bust of 2000 — the Fed had to lower interest rates to spur the economy.

By lowering rates, it made loans easier to acquire, hence the housing boom.

Now the Fed needs to start increasing rates because otherwise inflation will become a problem (it already it) and the value of the dollar will really begin to depreciate.

I think its poor fiscal policy by the Fed that has caused all of this. Sooner or later we will be in a rececession because of this housing market - probably in about 1-2 years.

By cw1900

December 22, 2006 11:14 AM | Link to this

Regarding the Sean Olender post, I’m not exactly sure how to respond here. I’ll start here.

You all know from my many posts where I stand on the future of our RE and how I feel about the credit situation. The credit area is where Mike Fink and I almost totally agree. It is an accident waiting to happen. 22yr olds making 45k in a neg am with a 700k mortgage is what Mike and I have been howling about for a long time. The 22yr old is the poster child. People have no clue, and some deserve to fall hard. It will happen, but they had no business in the game anyway, and I say good riddance. I do not have sympathy for those people walking alongside the cliff. One thing I need to take easyasabc to task on (and him and I agree on much) is one post he just casually stated that 95% of everyone has a car payment like it is a fact of life and one of the rules of life is that you must go through life always having a car payment. I hope I took that wrong from Easy, but that’s the way I read it. No, you do not have to go through life with a car payment each and every month until the day you die. That is an absurd statement. It’s your choice to buy something you really cannot afford, period. Yes, I do say the vast majority of the poor, the middle class, and even upper middle class cannot afford to buy a new car. Harsh, but true, and it can be backed up. Most people are driving a car they cannot afford. It is just one part of a huge credit crisis that is self inflicted.

I’ve never claimed to be the brightest, the richest, or the most business savvy of any of you. I do, I think, bring a little common sense to the discussion and try to run my business life that way. I do not have any MBA’s, but I do have two BS’s from a large, well known state university, one in Business Administration and one in Finance. I have done fairly well in my personal investing over the years in both RE and securities. I have made mistakes, yes, we all do, but overall, I’m in pretty good shape and my future plans are falling into place. I am not highly leveraged in any way shape or form, not even close. You know that. I’m comfortable with everything here at 41.

Having said that, Sean Olender is a mortgage broker and apparently does that for a living. His experiences he has shared with us I am not going to doubt. Sean does bring up a few points that are definitely valid, but there are a few red flags here.

His quotes:

1. “I’ve been expecting a housing bust since 2002.” I hope he has not been out since 2002 the same way that the doomers were out in 1997 after Greenspan’s Dec 1996 speech. If he did, he tried to time and believed he knew the short term future, and made a very costly and amateur mistake. Think of all the gold bug fools who for years and years predict doom. They always have and always will. The pessimistic attitude costs you huge money over your lifetime. Look what they have missed. Opportunity costs are everything.

2. “no ‘greater fool’ to rescue everyone who is in the market now — because I’m fairly sure that everyone is now in the market.” That is not true. Everyone is not in the market. There will never be that point and there never has. It’s a impossibility. Simple economics tells us that. Two years from now, the housing bubble some here think we have will be a distant memory. You cannot stop growth or population increases. There are blips, oh yes, but long term, this is almost irrelevant.

His quote that people need to remember is “But it’s almost every person who walks into my office. The most disturbing part is none of them understands any of their loan terms — not even the interest rate. They only know their monthly payment and they don’t know it will change in the future. They don’t believe me when I point out the terms in their own loan after they bring in their papers.”

That statement, I do believe, and I don’t think he is embellishing any part of that. It is believable and painfully true.

The credit problem is real people, and some of you, smart, successful, and living well are also in denial about your own credit situation. That’s a problem. Just think of the real money you would have if you didn’t have those voluntary payments you make every month. It is absurd and you, as smart as some of you are, are sacrificing a major part of your future and cannot see it.

Now, on to something much more important. I know it is off topic, but please bear with me.

I took the day off yesterday and it was for a reason I now know. One of my children was on the bus that crashed yesterday morning on I-95 in Jupiter. As you all know, no one was seriously hurt, thank god. My wife and I went to the scene, and I apologize to any of you if you saw me driving on the right median passing you by looking like I was in a hurry. I was, and I hope you now understand why.

I want to say how impressed I was with all of the fire-rescue and the police officers on the scene. They were highly trained and very professional and did a fantastic job. I want to say thank you for your everything you all did.

People need to hear this. For all of the negative comments we hear about the public schools, teachers, principals, and bus drivers, I will tell you this. When we got there, both Principals were already there on the scene, well organized and trained for such an event, and systematically talked and informed both students and parents. I hope the news crews on the scene took note of what true leaders both of these men were yesterday. I was impressed, and again, I want to say thank you to both of you. You helped immensely.

Lastly, and most important, to Mr. Dominique Charles, the bus driver. As you all have heard, it was this driver’s skill and quick thinking that help to avert a potential major tragedy. Mr. Dominique, your actions prevented serious injury, or god forbid worse, to my child and nothing I can say can tell you how much I am indebted to you. I can never repay what you did for us with your skills and level headed thinking. Thank you, sir. You have truly given all of us parents, and anyone close to these kids, a Christmas present that means more than anything.

Below is a clip from a news report and says it all. Thank you Mr. Dominique. You are a real hero.

[ Dominique Charles, 60, a driver at the Palm Beach County schools for 18 months, brought the school bus to a safe stop after it was hit on I-95 between Donald Ross and Indiantown roads.

“Last year before Christmas, I had a family (in Okeechobee) going to the Orlando airport and they were in an accident that killed everybody,” FHP spokesman Lt. Tim Frith said. “When this accident went on the radio as a rollover involving a school bus, I thought, ‘Here we go.’ But the driver did an excellent job of bringing the vehicle to a stop, and now all the kids will be able to spend Christmas with their families,” Frith said.

“The bus driver was able to keep the tires straight and keep it from flipping, which often happens when someone tries too violently to turn back to the roadway. Instead, Mr. Charles kept the tires straight, kept from going into the canal — and a lot of people die when vehicles go into a canal — and when I got there, he had put it on an angle between two palm trees,” Frith said.

“I spoke to the bus driver, and he should be praised and commended for the job he did,” Duncan Middle School Principal Joseph Lee said. Of the students on the bus, 36 attend Duncan.

“When I arrived on the scene, it looked like there could be one or two fatalities, but he was able to maneuver the bus and keep it out of the canal,” Lee said. “We noticed when we arrived that the emergency exit and the windows were open and the kids said the evacuation drills that we do in our bus loop a couple of times a year helped them get out.” ]

I hope everyone has a great holiday and I’ll “talk” to you next year.

cw

By crazydem

December 22, 2006 11:15 AM | Link to this

Sean-Wipe the snot off your nose, iron your Izod, and go back to the “Young Friends of Whatever” meeting you just came from.

25% of loans were/are ARMS. (WSJ) Not “EVERYBODY” (your emphasis) pulled an ARM to buy a house last year. Not everyone cashed out their equity.

Welcome to the blog. Isolated thoughts with no basis in economics will get you no where on here. When running stats-please cite. Also, base theories on empirically backed data. This is not glee club cocktail hour with the sorority girls.

BTW-Mad props to the PE poster earlier.

One more thing-this article means my house will be worth about $20k less in 2008 than it is now. I don’t care. If the economy hits the skids in the states than it’s going to go up in another country-I’ll gladly ride that bull. I need a place to live for the next 30 years here.

I think it’s high time for the sideliners to quit posting idiotic thoughts about how horrible and scruffy things are going to get. This is the same group that has their savings in T-bills. You think Carnegie would have made a dime if he didn’t risk everything? You’ve a long way to go, my sideliner friend.

To answer a question posted in another blog-my taxes this year are close to the $2200 median. I live two blocks from the water. I bought within the past two years. That’s a fact, now end the doomsday premonitions please.

Merry Christmas! Don’t spend all your money on throw away items made in China if you can’t afford a roof to secure yourself and your loved ones. (Yes, the same China who secures our war debt by hoarding our bonds. Did you know China is financing Iraq? Maybe that’s why the Russians want to goad us into attacking Iran, so they can buy us up when we’re desperate just like China is doing.)

Now pass the egg nog. Peace!

By crazydem

December 22, 2006 11:18 AM | Link to this

Gatorcane-QUIT CRYING! Pick up a paper-rate futures rose this morning. The pros are betting on a cut in January. Is there some special financial education they are teaching at UF/Miami that the Pros don’t know about? Maybe you should contact Bernanke.

I bet you bought into the market within the last month? Am I right?

By crazydem

December 22, 2006 11:30 AM | Link to this

Sideliner conundrum: What to put on the Christmas list so you can get into that house.

Rising FED rates?

A weaker dollar?

High inflation readings?

A rising CPI to spur a rate increase?

A veritable 2007 conundrum if you don’t own a house.

By To: Sean, Tom, Mike and Gatorcane

December 22, 2006 11:31 AM | Link to this

The cheerleaders have been saying that PB County is a “bargain” compared to property in the Northeast. They are saying that the boomers, Europeans, and South Americans will come here and buy these properties, and that prices have already bottomed out.

Will prices continue to decline, or are they right and will there be a flood of buyers from NY, NJ, CN, etc.

By to cw

December 22, 2006 11:46 AM | Link to this

Yes, we are all thankful. You have a wonderful holiday.

To all, tell everyone you love how you feel.

Peace.

By sad comments on PBC

December 22, 2006 11:58 AM | Link to this

cw:

It is very good that your child is ok. It is also sad that everyone you named except the principals can’t afford the median home here.

By maxmoose03

December 22, 2006 12:21 PM | Link to this

I certainly got a kick out of seeing “Sean” above complaining about all the people he was writing loans for, with Fink and the other boobs applauding him.

Later on in this blog, we will have Presidential brother Neil Bush complaining about fraudulent lending practices. Special guest Willy Sutton will also be here to ask the FBI to do more to prevent bank robbery.

By Hey crazydem, where is your support?

December 22, 2006 12:28 PM | Link to this

Crazydem, you cheerleader loser, can you point to a single stat that would support your and easy’s idea that this market is going to improve at all over the next few years?

You haven’t been able to cite to anything. And “in the long run prices will improve” is a bunch of nonsense for buyers looking to buy today.

Know why? Because when you say “in the long term” buyers hear that prices are still decreasing. They might as well wait until prices are increasing and then buy. But the problem is that your “long term” nonsense means that buyers should wait, and the more buyers wait the lower the prices will go, and the cycle repeats and repeats itself.

You’d do everybody a big favor on this blog if you got a clue before you start spouting off again.

By maxmoose03

December 22, 2006 12:38 PM | Link to this

Where is crazydem’s support?

We are putting the finishing touches on the 3rd best sales year since Ponce DeLeon decided he liked the water in St. Augustine. Even so, we are still ridiculously underpriced for an area with this level of population and economic activity.

You maniacs keep calling for a 50% to 70% price decline in Florida.

So? Where is it? Where is YOUR support?

By Donald Trump

December 22, 2006 12:42 PM | Link to this

The Post loves to quote negative comments on real estate from all the “experts” at Moody’s, Business Week, Forbes, Fortune, Money Magazine and the other Wall Street lackies. These Wall street leaches wanted to kill the real estate market to drive money back into stocks. Record bonuses on Wall Street announced this week confirm that Jeff O. and the Post have made Wall Street firms richer than ever at the expense of South Florida’s housing market. The NY based financial media has destroyed South Florida’s real estate market in the past because they know how easy it is to manipulte the media. Just label someone an “expert” and reporters are tripping over each to interview and quote them regardless of their agenda.

By WackoJacko

December 22, 2006 12:44 PM | Link to this

Sean is right.

I am in the mortgage business and over 35% of our paper is interest only ARMS. Couple that with No-Doc loans and you have massive problems. I see a lot of people getting expensive homes that they cannot afford.

Everything has gotten more expensive but incomes have stayed the same.

Everyone in FL is complaining about taxes and insurance. It is going to take at least 2 years to fix these problems.

There are currently 21 homes for sale in my mother-in laws wonderful small development and over 50 units for sale in Canyon Lakes.

I think the problem is much deeper than the press is indicating. Many sub-prime lenders and mortgage companies are getting squeezed or going out of business because of low margins and poor portfolio risk management. The FED is going to lower rates next year, despite inflation fears, to prevent a total housing meltdown and recession.

Carpe Diem, WJ

By Wall Street Broker

December 22, 2006 12:45 PM | Link to this

What Jeff O. and the Post want you to believe is that the media was responsible for rising prices when the housing market was strong. That’s untrue…Jeff O. and his cronies at the Post have been bashing real estate for 3 years and he knows it. Every articles written (including the ones reporting strong sales and pricing) had a blantantly negative bias typically quoting the foreclosure consultant from Deerfield Beach masquerading as a real estate expert or Wall Street economist (the guys telling investors to buy stocks while they were selling). So real estate appreciated over the past three years in spite of media coverage-not because of it!

By maxmoose03

December 22, 2006 12:48 PM | Link to this

By the way, let’s get our definitions straight.

A “loser” is someone who spends his life in a rented apartment. Someone who owns a home in a nice area 2 blocks from the Intracoastal is not the “loser” in this situation.

By MikeG

December 22, 2006 12:48 PM | Link to this

Oh my what a suprise more bad news from the post.

Did anybody read that PMI will soon be tax deductible, and did anybody read that from 7/1/05 to 7/1/06 Florida had a an increase of 320,000 people.

But we wont read that kind of news from the post. What a joke this newspaper is. Jeff I think you have cutting Franks lawn to much. Come over and cut mine for awhile I will atleast give you a lemonade on your break. Keep up the crapy reporting Jeff.

By MikeG

December 22, 2006 12:53 PM | Link to this

Almost forgot, Happy Festivus everyone. Let the airing of grevinces begin.

And CW glad hear that your child is ok.

By maxmoose03

December 22, 2006 01:02 PM | Link to this

Again to you mortgage brokers — if you are so offended by the poeple you are sucking money out of, why don’t you quit and go into a business you are comfortable with ethically? You are astounding hypocrites.

By NC vs FL culture

December 22, 2006 01:04 PM | Link to this

I get so tired of reading the same narrow minded idiotic stereotypes of North Carolina spewed out by bitter bankrupt broker easyABC/maxmoose/tom jones/whatever other aliases he goes by. He beats the same dead horse over and over, calling NC ‘Mayberry’.

For starters, if you wanna apply stereotypes, lets talk South FLorida. Talk? Well, perhaps SHOUT, since South FLorida is NOTHING but nearly deaf,wrinkled retirees with leathery skin from tanning for 50 years.

Or how about this stereotype. Well, why bother? I dont know how to speak, or write Spanish, so no one in South Florida would understand me anyway.

Lets talk serious about South Florida culture. If that were possible to talk serious to drunken Spring Breakers making idiots of themselves.

Hey abc/moose/student/tomjones…for every stereotype you apply towards NC, I can come up with far worse for Sofla. In fact, if Raleigh WERE like Mayberry, I find that far more appealing to live amongst warm, down to earth people who know their neighbors, and actually can afford to live near their ordinary jobs as schoolteachers, shop keepers, barbers, and cops.

As opposed to living amongst displaced New Yorkers with their nasally whiny obnoxious accents complaining about the lack of good bagels to go with their CO-AWW-FEE!

Seriously, if you wanna compare West Palm against Raleigh culturally, good luck. First, West Palm has a population of around 95,000. Raleigh, 340,000. West Palm is mostly generic and suburban. Raleigh is the state capitol.

Economics and job base? COnsidering that Raleigh is surrounded by several major NCAA institutions NC State, Duke, and UNC, they have a much more powerful draw to professional corporations then our low paid tourist and service based economy. Have you heard of the Research Triangle? In NC, they draw research institutes for the purpose of research, not as an excuse to buld monstrous housing developments way out in the remote everglades emptiness.

Oh, and speaking of education, the universities in and around Raleigh actually have academics as their primary focus, as opposed to that NFL/future prison training camp discuised as a university in Miami.

You wanna talk weather? North Carolina has much more pleasant year round weather than South Florida. They have a few cold snaps in Winter, but winters are mostly mild, and summers don’t suffocate you for 6 months straight like here.

Culture? South Florida? Give me a break! NO ONE comes here for the CULTURE!

By maxmoose03

December 22, 2006 01:08 PM | Link to this

No wait, hypocrite isn’t strong enough for these mortgage brokers.

Do you folks understand how the mortgage business works? Do you understand that for those guys to make money, they jack up the interest rates as high as they can, then get those borrowers past an underwriter as being qualified?

They are the very source of the problem everyone is complaining about, and here they are complaining about themselves!

These guys aren’t hypcritical. Schizophrenic is a closer description.

By maxmoose03

December 22, 2006 01:15 PM | Link to this

Gee - I wonder where we get that impression of those bigoted, narrow-minded Southerners.

Where do you suppose, “NC vs. FL”? Hmmm? Is it from you? Or from those warm down-to-earth folks in the Klan?

LOL

By The Donald

December 22, 2006 01:17 PM | Link to this

Jeff O. thinks everyone who lives in South Florida must be stupid. He loves to print negative headlines with real estate bashing quotes from “EXPERTS” at Moody’s.Com a firm whose fortunes are tied directly to Wall Street. Just like his other biased sources at Forbes, Fortune WSJ and Money Magazine, all of whom are NY based and soley dependent on brokerage and mutual fund advertising for their livelihood! Is it any wonder that these sources ALWAYS trash Florida’s real estate market. Does the POST really think that New York based financial media want NY area residents and money going to Florida real estate instead of Wall Street! What idiots run this newspaper.

By easyas123

December 22, 2006 01:20 PM | Link to this

AS WE SPEAK, PRICES ARE RISING…er..uh…stagnant…dropping?

Brand new luxury condos in the heart of downtown at the Prado. Featuring all the best ammenities that the ‘HAVES’ want and expect. Now RENTING as low as $1000/mo. FOr a BRAND NEW LUXURY CONDO DOWNTOWN. Hmmm…as we speak prices are going…No WAIT…as we speak, RENTS are going up…well…uh…

PLEASE! Wont SOMEBODY rent one of my condos I bought to flip? PLEASE?? Im paying out almost $3000/mo mortgage, taxes, and HOA fees…

Its in a grerat location downtown..marble countertops…berber carpet…stainless steel appliances…state of the art fitness center…Come on…any takers?? $1200/mo? COme on…IM paying out almost $3000. for this place…PLEASE! How about $1000? Something…ANYTHING…$800?…sigh

By Howfunnyisthis

December 22, 2006 01:29 PM | Link to this

Muti-userID “maxmoose03” referring to others as Schizo ?

That HAS to be funniest post of the year.

By WackoJacko

December 22, 2006 01:30 PM | Link to this

MaxMoose,

You are very funny. Just like the dot com boom, everything is fueled by greed. The average joe got spanked by the dot com boom and then fell in love with the late night infomercial that promised riches in real estate. Hence, another boom. Money just moves from one pocket to another.

Blame your Government. They are the ones that allow insider trading in the stock market. If you think the average investor has a chance I have a bridge for sale. Brokers bang borrowers over the head with points. If you pay points you should be in therapy.

I am all for hard regulation of the mortgage industry. But ask yourself why the gov’t has allowed the dregs of humanity into this industry? Don’t hate the player..hate the game. The mortgage industry is direct response to supply and demand and loose underwriting guidelines supplied by your tax dollars.

Do you think your insurance company is schizo while they are reporting record profits and raising your premium 20%?

The problem is, as people of the U.S., we don’t stand up in unison and say we are not going to take it. We just follow the herd mentality.

Say Moooo Maxmoose and have a Happy Holiday! :)

By maxmoose03

December 22, 2006 01:38 PM | Link to this

No…that’s not the funniest.

The funniest is a guy who identifies himself as “Howfunnyisthis” accusing OTHER people of being “Multi-userID.” Now THAT’s funny.

A guy who doesn’t own a home, has no skills, can’t write 3 sentences and who buys his Bugle Boy clothes in Wal-Mart trying to make fun of others who have education and savoir-faire, THAT’s hilarious.

By maxmoose03

December 22, 2006 01:55 PM | Link to this

Wacko J - How can a moose not follow the herd mentality?

Seriously, though, I don’t hate the player or the game. But I don’t think it’s fair to bite the hand that feeds you.

The very nature of mortgage brokerage is to get the maximum spread you can, while coming up with all the BS fees you can think of. The lenders obligingly print whatever fees you have dreamed up on their documents, and don’t care what rate of interest you work out with the sucker….er, borrower. Basically, these guys are con men. I think they serve a legitimate purpose, but a guy who doesn’t think his borrower should be borrowing is obviously in an ethical dilemma. The more money he takes from the borrower, the less qualified that borrower is.

If these guys think their customers should not be there, they should either waive their fees or move to another business.

Joyeux Noel WJ, et Bonne Annee a tous et a toutes

By maxmoose03

December 22, 2006 02:23 PM | Link to this

You know, maybe it’s my English, but I am still not getting it strong enough.

These mortgage brokers have to actively try to get a borrower past an underwriter, at the very least do everything they can to make the file look good.

It is fundamentally dishonest, in my opinion, for them to be getting people approved who they don’t think are qualified.

They can argue that lending policies are too broad, but this still leaves them to deal with their own consciences. And if they are bending the rules to get people approved, they are walking a fine line legally.

By To Maxmoose

December 22, 2006 02:39 PM | Link to this

What makes you think that this will be the 3rd highest year ever for sales? Haven’t you seen the volume for the past six months? 2002 and 2003 will have more, and 2007 will be one of the lowest years ever.

Remember, the stats from last October were the lowest on record since 1993 (the fatherest back that FAR has data).

So, maxi, go suck on your brie and learn to habla espanol, its a lot more appropriate for these parts.

Adios.

By Lets Go Easy!!

December 22, 2006 02:41 PM | Link to this

Come on Easy, give it to all these “have nots” with a big AS WE SPEAK PRICES ARE RISING!!

Where are you Easy?

By to NC vs FL culture

December 22, 2006 03:00 PM | Link to this

Glad to hear your lovely state of NC continues to grow! Thank you kindly for becoming the preferred place for PBC’s lower echelon whom cannot make ends meet here! As Fl upgrades its population with the more educated and affluent who seek refuge from the snows, please continue to welcome our priced-out former lower class inhabitants. HAPPY HOLIDAYS and enjoy the HEE-HAW marathon all Christmas week on your local station!

By luckydog

December 22, 2006 03:01 PM | Link to this

If prices on housing is going up as you speak why are people having a hard time selling?I moved to South Carolina a year ago purchased a new home approx 2700 sq ft all brick for 228000 you people could not touch that kind of home down there so just keep thinking prices are rising while nothing is selling

By to NC vs FL culture

December 22, 2006 03:02 PM | Link to this

Glad to hear your lovely state of NC continues to grow! Thank you kindly for becoming the preferred place for PBC’s lower echelon whom cannot make ends meet here! As Fl upgrades its population with the more educated and affluent who seek refuge from the snows, please continue to welcome our priced-out former lower class inhabitants. HAPPY HOLIDAYS and enjoy the HEE-HAW marathon all Christmas week on your local station!

By Mike Fink - OUTED

December 22, 2006 03:25 PM | Link to this

Here is an early Holiday present for the regulars on this blog..be you doomsayers or cheerleaders. Regular poster “Mike Fink” is hereby OUTED He/SHE is either female or gay (not that there’s anything wrong with that) only the deception. Want proof? I have been following his/her posts over a year now…check the above ones (right on this blog)Do you notice the smiley faces i.e. :) What real guy does that?? Sorry Mike Fink, you have been outed!

By Don

December 22, 2006 04:45 PM | Link to this

New guy at work this week. Came from Ploand 5 yrs ago and settled in NYC. Couldn’t afford to buy up there, came down two weeks ago and bought a house for him and his family. Cant believe the prices here compared to NY. Loves it here. Told me there are 10 million Polacks in the USA waiting to get legalized. He is telling all his friends about the unbelievable prices here.

I’m not saying we will be invaded by Poland, just that there are hard working people out there who work, save and provide a roof for their family.
They dont cry and complain about what they cant afford.

By Merry Christmas to all

December 22, 2006 06:10 PM | Link to this

Just came back from the mall and saw everyone spending thousands of dollars on items made in China. Was going to tell you this is why you don’t have money but it looks like crazydem beat me to it today. He has the best quote of the day:

“Merry Christmas! Don’t spend all your money on throw away items made in China if you can’t afford a roof to secure yourself and your loved ones.”

Crazydem - you are not crazy at all. You told it all. Not only are these people using their heloc loans on their houses to buy foolish items made in China, but more than likely, their job will be outsourced to China too.

Christmas is not about going out and spending money you don’t have on foolish items made overseas.

You all lost the true meaning of Christmas. CW you were very fortunate and am sure you are grateful to be celebrating this Christmas with your child.

Hope you all can all forget the materialistic things in this world for the next few days and find the true meaning of Christmas in celebrating the birth of baby Jesus with your loved ones.

Let’s all take a break from these blogs, relax, and re-charge our batteries/minds/ for 2007.

Wishing you all a very happy and Merry Christmas. Peace be with you all.

By maxmoose03

December 22, 2006 06:38 PM | Link to this

TO “TO MAXMOOSE”:

Glad to see you are as stupid as always, “TO”.

Who told me this was the third best year? Jeff Ostrowski, for one, if you would bother to read the intros. But if you need confirmation, you can go to the NAR website as well.

Relax, “TO” - nobody is challenging your status as the stupidest person on the blogs.

Et hubiera pudo escribir todo en castellano, si queria, pero tu no podrias entender en todo caso.

Yeah, stupid, my Spanish is fluent and genuine, but it attracts racial slurs from people of your ilk.

By maxmoose03

December 22, 2006 06:54 PM | Link to this

Don, it is not respectful to call people “Polacks.”

And while you are at it, you could learn a little culture, like the preamble to Poland’s Constitution:

(translated): Attention K-Mart Shoppers!

By maxmoose03

December 22, 2006 07:06 PM | Link to this

Just kidding, before someone tells me what a hypocrite I am.

And before I remark that Mike Fink never ever mentions a woman in his life.

But I think “Merry” above has the meaning of the season and Baby Jesus right. let’s all take a week off from persecuting Jews to worship one.

By Thebigquestion

December 22, 2006 07:31 PM | Link to this

What about Commercial Real Estate?

By thebigquestion

December 22, 2006 07:32 PM | Link to this

What about commercial real estate?

By easyasabc

December 22, 2006 08:13 PM | Link to this

I cannot believe this, i also was thinking about how i saw all these fools today wasting their money on products from China. I can see there was several of us who had the same thoughts in our mind.

From what i can tell, people do have the money. I really don’t know how they are making it, but if they are buying Chinese, Korean, India, Thailand and Vietnam products now, they will be buying American real estate later. Yes, if the retail stores raised their prices from a year ago and the people keep on buying, so will the sellers raise their prices. As we speak, the prices will go up. Just look at it this way, pay now or pay later.

Vietnam products ! They killed over 58,000 Americans. We killed over 2 million of their people. 30 years later, we are buying their products that american jobs use to have, from which the U.S. politicians gave to Vietnam. So around 2040, we will be buying Iraq products, RCA will still want to see everybody’s insurance bill and Mike Fink will still be doing the numbers of how it is better to be in a state run nursing home in Raleigh, rather a private nursing home in Vero Beach.

Don, i have tons of jokes on people from POLAND ! Yes, i know, it was a spelling error. BTW, do you know what they call a pretty girl in Poland?……A Tourist ! Don’t laugh at those Polish people. They know how to save and sacrifice to obtain property. They are not like these lazy American “have nots” we have here always predicting the end of the world in Palm Beach. I see they spent their whole day here bashing away. I think that all the cheerleaders can agree that the “have nots’ also don’t have a life besides not having real estate.

Here is a fun fact…..in 1 out of 24 bathrooms, there s a Christmas tree.

I did run across a mortgage lender that i met a year ago. He is now checking out items at a PGA ave. retail store. Not living the high life now. Too many people went beyond their means when they were getting those exotic loans.

URGENT….URGENT….The Donald is in town. Time to party with “The Donald”. And that was not Rosey off of our coast, but a hump-back whale that got lost.

Yes, it is time of the season to be with family & friends, strippers and hookers, and hang out with The Donald at the BIG “M” for this holiday season.

Talk with you all after the holidays.

2007 will be a very good year.

Just remember this….as we speak……some “half-back” is getting sick every three minutes in Raleigh from eatting too much pie.

Life is very good in Palm Beach.

Donald, see you Saturday night.

easyasabc

By maxmoose03

December 22, 2006 08:39 PM | Link to this

EZ!!! You just summed up my entire argument for not driving a Toyota (besides the fact that it is a funny-looking, dangerous, over-priced peice of crap).

You mean to tell me there isn’t ONE American car you can buy? I have had some fantastic American cars in the past few years. You can’t find ONE to keep your money in Amreica?

By Maxmoose03 - OUTED

December 22, 2006 09:09 PM | Link to this

Let it be known that maxmoose has been outed as a moron. Anything he says can be ignored. What an idiotic comment he made. :) :):) (I use smiley faces all the time. Does that mean I’m gay?)Of all the stupid posts I’ve read…

By Made in Detroit...By Mistake

December 22, 2006 09:25 PM | Link to this

I grew up in Detroit, within a stones throw of CHrysler Engine. I saw UAW workers drinking booze, and smoking weed on their lunch breaks everyday, then go back to assembling engines with a nice buzz. Very comforting.

In college, I used to jam in a band with some GM Willow Run plant workers. They told me amusing and informative tales of ‘doubling up’ on the line. Which means: Each guy at a two man station takes turns hiding out, taking a nap for part of the day, while the other handles both of their jobs. Then, they switch out. And you wonder why so many American cars are plagues with pre-mature rattles and squeaks?

They were fun guys to jam with, but I would NOT buy a car they built!

Every American car I owned, nickle and dimed me to death. My last American car was an 82 Ford Escort. BY the time it was 5 years old, it was ready for the junk heap. In contrast, I got rid of that thing for an 82 Subaru. It had twice the miles of the Escort, was the same year, yet still ran like new.

Since then, Japanese cars have treated me wonderfully. Instead of constant worrying about what will go wrong next, I can expect 150,000 miles of worry free driving with any Toyota, or Honda, or Subaru. (Mitsubishis dont count, as they are built by Chrysler workers)

I would be glad to buy an American car again, when they can give me Toyota-level quality, reliability, and resale value.

I cant afford a high maintenence lemon.

-Detroit native who knows things the UAW would never admit.

By maxmoose03

December 22, 2006 10:05 PM | Link to this

Mike Fink — that was not my comment about the smiley faces.

Detroit —

If you have not updated your info since 1982, maybe it’s time to wake up. I have had great success with American cars in the past ten years, and far better value than those overpriced hunks of tin.

I won’t even go into all the fun you have with a sleek American sports car — just suffice it to say you are really depriving yourself of one of the great joys in life if you drive a Toyota.

By the way, I got a little sick of taking two G/F’s in a row to drop off and pick up their cars, because their new Hondas were in the shop every other week.

One Honda came with a defective fule pump. Honda refused to pay for the repair, telling my g/f “You must have bought bad gas.” Bad gas, all right. At least Americans will stand behind their products.

By David

December 22, 2006 10:53 PM | Link to this

Snow birds who don’t want to pay someone 7%? That is the sound of someone who wants to have problems in this South Florida market. Realtors are the only thread holding the market together. You should learn to understand the industry before blogging on it.

Now that the industry is down, we need realtors - GOOD realtors, not the bandwagonneers that came along in the great market - to help stimulate the market.

People from up North need realtors more as they know the market and know where the real values are not to mention they know the areas and where you can and should go with your money.

People need to quit damning the system that has been destroyed by the discounters.

7% is paid by the SELLER. If a Seller wants to skimp on commissions what else might they skimp on? disclosures? renovations? insulation?

Seriously… remember that a license is a qualification to help YOU.

As a licensed mortgage broker I deal with people EVERY DAY who go to Internet lenders or other shlock peddlers and get taken for a ride. A good mortgage broker and realtor usually help not only get a better deal for a client but make the house work for the client’s unique needs now and in the future.

By maxmoose03

December 22, 2006 11:31 PM | Link to this

David - Your idealistic ideas are good, but the system is not built for independent, smart realtors, and people will not accept them.

People are, frankly, stupid in their choice of realtors. They go with Gigundo Realty because “Oh, they’re the biggest” or “They’re a national chain.” Gigundo Realty can make commercials showing houses full of kittens, or people doing the Tango, and this is what convinces people to list with them.

What they don’t realize is that Gigundo Realty will hire anyone with a pulse. Hence, if a retired housewife has farmed an area, ingratiated herself to the other retired housewives in the area, and works for Gigundo, the deal is done. If that is not enough, the realtor will simply lie and say “I have buyers waiting.” It would take a sophisticated seller to ask a realtor why she has to put the house on MLS if she has buyers waiting. She would give a BS response anyway, such as, “MLS requires it” or “My broker demands it.” Even is she is not clever, she is way ahead of the seller.

Once they get the listing, naturally, they put it on MLS and forget about it. It’s somebofdy else’s problem to sell it. If the property is “advertised”, it will probably receive 3 lines along with 100 other listings from Gigundo, in a full page ad.

Sellers will insist on open houses, which the realtor is only too happy to do — for this usually brings more prospects for the realtor, even if it does not produce buyers for the house (it usually does not).

A typical MLS deal is 3% for the listing broker, whose sales agent does nothing, as described above, and 3% for the selling broker. Hence - ARE YOU LISTENING< EASY? - when a salesperson tells you 7%, you say 4%. When they say “My broker won’t allow that,” tell them where their broker can go, and call up someone who is hungry — and honest. It will wind up on MLS exactly the same, and probably get advertised more.

As for mortgage brokers - take a look at the attitudes of those two guys above. You really need someone with integrity, Dave, to overcome the built-in conflicts of the business.

By maxmoose03

December 23, 2006 01:25 AM | Link to this

BTW: I forgot to mention: In the above scenario, that 4% you can offer the agent means only 1% for the selling broker, 3% for the listing broker (whose agent you are negotiating with). Don’t be surprised that some firms will not go for it.

Make sure the listing contract indicates 3% to the selling broker. Check the actual MLS listing to make sure it stipulates 3% to the various types of brokers (tansaction, single agent, etc.).

By .

December 23, 2006 06:03 PM | Link to this

Smart Buyer = Easy/John. Such an obvious idiot. No one else talked about 7% commissions. This loser thinks he affects the price of real estate by posting as other names on this board. He thinks it will help sell his pink tract house. LOL!

By maxmoose03

December 23, 2006 10:53 PM | Link to this

WOW - I really got that one backwards —-

That should be 3% for the SELLING BROKER, 1% FOR THE LISTING BROKER. The listing broker, who is doing next to nothing, doesn’t deserve more than 1%, IMHO as a broker. THE SELLING broker actually brings the customer, and deserves that 3%.
Besides, no agent is going to bother showing places for less than 3% commission any more.

Good luck, I don not know when I will return, some of the other Max’s may respond if there is something they don’t like. Or maybe not.

Joyeux Noel et Bonne Annee, meilleurs voeux a toute la compagnie.

By Adrian

December 24, 2006 08:28 AM | Link to this

I know where in the world 7% is the norm. My relative is a realtor in the mid-west. Every contract she writes or executes is 7%, it’s standard practice. I couldn’t believe it. I myself only use 4.5%. 2% for me and 2.5% for the buyers agent. It’s fair. 6 and 7% are crazy. IMHO. Merry Christmas or whatever it is you celebrate.

By Bye, Sweetie

December 24, 2006 02:41 PM | Link to this

Bye sweetie, I will miss you:)Only you know for sure. J’vous aimme beaucoup. MF:)