By sensitivity

November 28, 2006 04:28 PM | Link to this

You really need help! This is a forum to discuss real estate issues and not your ignorance.

By crazydem

November 28, 2006 04:47 PM | Link to this

Thanks-there is a cyber god.

Now, Bernanke and Greenspan spoke today. The naysayers are not going to like their comments.

Also, add the second clause to the report today about sales increasing and you have a real story. Sales increased for the first time in eight months.

Renters begin your ranting…

With the goldilocks economy, it’s too late to put your money in the market. Only place you can store it is under your mattress.

By Hey crazydem, you putz

November 28, 2006 06:11 PM | Link to this

Hey idiot, the only reason why there was an increase in condo sales IS BECAUSE WE WERE IN THE MIDDLE OF HURRICANE WILMA LAST MONTH!!!

The number of sales is at historically low numbers. Don’t take any solace in the “increase” in sales.

By crazydem

November 28, 2006 06:48 PM | Link to this

Not taking solace my friend. Sales increased nationwide-Wilma only hit South Florida. (All the haters out there are probably still hoping one will pop up in the next few days.) Don’t hate the playa’, hate da’ game!

By Mike Fink

November 28, 2006 07:17 PM | Link to this

Wow, what a ride today on this blog. Seems to have quited down a bit, so hopefully we can get back to arguing about something that really matters; and not who has cows in their back yard…and so on.. :)

Anyway, there is no reason to get all bent out of shape. Yes, if your a realator, this is not a good time for you. Guess what, I work in IT, and 2000-2003 was an awful time for me. It happens, markets are circular! And guess what, now it’s somebody else’s turn to ride the “overinflated hype” ship to the bottom of the sea. :)

Anyway, I am almost done arguing over the numbers. Looking at a month to month view of this thing is far to granular anyway; look at trends if you want to look at anything. Even that, however, is not necessary. It’s math that has “damned” this market, not trends, not hurricans, not somebody who has a cow in the backyard, and certainly not a few people posting on a blog (or a local newspaper). The math stopped working several years ago without a large number in the “expected appreciation” column. When you put in a normal (5) or god forbid a negative (-5) number in that section; the whole thing comes tumbling down on top of itself. Which is exactly what we are seeing right now.

I don’t hate the playa or the game. I have math on my side; and I can promise you, math will always win in a fight like this.

On a final note, I would like to mention we are barley into the 1st inning of this ballgame. Housing doubled in 3 years, do you really think a 10% drop is all we have in store? We have years of inventory, an out of control tax system, insurance problems, population loss, and total unaffordability of homes using tradional loan products.

Exotic loans are for rich people, they are NOT an affordability instrument!!

By Good News

November 28, 2006 07:22 PM | Link to this

Crazydem you are right, it is good news. Prices are down 12 percent (3.5 percent nationwide) and inventories are up nationwide. If this good news continues next year at this time prices will begin to look attractive again. Of course we will still have the high insurance and taxes, well we can’t have all good news can we?

By to mike fink

November 28, 2006 08:12 PM | Link to this

once again you prove how little you know. book smart and street smart are two different things.

i am not saying this market is fine, or that we are not in for a rough time ahead. i however, do not think a complete failure is comming.

emotions, pride and other factors play into home ownership. that is why they call it the american dream.

btw it is cyclical.

markets are cyclical. the meaning: fluctuate widely according to variations in the economy or market.

circular is a shape.

i still doubt you have ever owned a home, and if you are going to give advice on homeownership how are you qualified?

you can read or view porn all day, it isn’t the same as actually doing it.

By easyasabc

November 28, 2006 08:19 PM | Link to this

If Mike Fink, the guy who can not figure out compound interest, the guy who thinks you need 9% interest a year to make 180K on 500K — if HE works in IT, LOL……I won’t say it.

By CanUC

November 28, 2006 08:22 PM | Link to this

Hey Mike, I have read this blog for sometime, but never posted.

Your propensity to vomit stats and numbers that make your point, really have little meaning.

Life is not a computer, and people have feelings and act irrationally. This market could change from a down turn to a normal market back to a boom in a quick period of time. No amount of calculation can predict what the next year will bring.

Markets turn on a dime.

By easyasabc

November 28, 2006 08:29 PM | Link to this

Add to above, 180K on 500K in 5 years.

Who thinks that takes 9% interest?

Who says under 6.5%?

By to mike fink

November 28, 2006 08:30 PM | Link to this

i bet you did not trash the idiots buying crazy amounts of hardware, software or paying recent IT grads stupid money during the dot.com era.

that drove up the cost of everything computer related for any company and the general economy. remember y2k?

yet several years later, most decent people with good skills got jobs, other computer companies formed, some older ones thrived, and all is well is dodge.

so it will be in real estate.

By Oh! Say CanUC

November 28, 2006 08:45 PM | Link to this

CanUC, you are so right. but at least if you are going to vomit statistic, you can voimit correct statistics :-))))

By easy as burnt toast

November 28, 2006 09:04 PM | Link to this

my name is easy and i cant count. more cuts in housing prices to come. really easy, get out of your cardboard box under I-95. KEEP DRINKING THE KOOL-AID AND WATCH ME FALL. I AM SUCH A LOSER.

By Mike Fink

November 28, 2006 09:09 PM | Link to this

Well, at least now we are back to arguing about the topic at hand; that’s a big step forward from the past few days! :)

Well, since I work in IT, and I was in the business during the .COM blowup, let me tell you, we all better hope housing does better then the .COMs did! We are the pets.com of the housing market right now, widely overvalued and just pushed higher and higher, not because of fundamentals, but because of the belief “it will only go higher still”.

Oh, and just so you know, yes, I did trash the IT market non-stop when it went nuts. My idiot family/friends were pouring money into “the next big thing” that I had never even heard of (and I was intimately involved in the business). I trashed the market then, and I am trashing it now (RE, not .COMs) because, much like then, the fundamentals have long ago left the building. I watched 2 jobs disintegrate (companies went under) and my salary dropped 50% in 2 years. Yeah, it sucked. But it was crazy, I knew it was crazy, and I planned accrodingly. Unfortunately, many in the RE business really believed the hype; they thought we had reached the “new plateau” and it was going to continue like this forever.

Yes, I agree, the market could turn back to boom again. History does however, have a tendency to repeat; most (all?) downturns in the past have been measured in years, and we have never gotten this far from the “norm” at any point in the past. Also, I don’t know how we could go back to a boom market right now, I just don’t see it in the cards. Lending standards could not be lower. The most exotic loans have already been offered (I guess we could get into 100yr morgages, or negative am for 30 years with a ballon payment, but I sincerly doubt any investor would want to back that crap. On this point however, I have been VERY wrong before! I cannot believe that people are buying MBS products right now; the volume of fraud and crap loans is just staggering.) Anyway, I just don’t see anyway to respike the market (with the exception of massive dollar devaluation/inflation, which I personally do not think the fed is willing to do. All the signs seem to be pointing to flat or increasing rates to protect the dollar).

And yes, unfortunately, you’re right, people do not act rationally in all cases. But I think that depending on people to be irrational to “save” a market is probably not such a good plan. Yes, people will buy homes, but as the prevaling mentatlity becomes “Why buy, rent is far cheaper, and homes do nothing but lose money” fewer and fewer people will step up to the exotic loan chopping block. Cut off the crazy/easy credit, and the market is done; the affordability is just not there using traditional loan products. Add the S. FL specific problems (Save Our Homes (better known as F**k thy neighbor or Save our Geezers), Insurance and taxes) and I just don’t see how anyone can say we are in for anything but a crash landing.

By fladiver

November 28, 2006 10:24 PM | Link to this

Zillow.com…uh… I checked my house, the last one sold for 285k, another exactly the same has been on the market for 260k and has not sold in 6 months. Their Zestimates are completely flawed, and like most automated comp search does not take into account the neighbourhood, they publish a value at between 360k and 450k….. laughable I am sure most of my neighbours wishes they could get that. The fact is property values are going down. Look at the sales price of the properties in your neighborhood (by going to the tax assessor website and you will see hoe flawed Zillow is.

By TANC

November 28, 2006 11:35 PM | Link to this

Forget Zillow.com for valuations. The methodology for determining individual home values is flawed, although, if you dig a little deeper into the website and pick out your own comps that make sense than you can get an adjusted value that is a better indication.

The problem with this market right now is that “appraised value” has nothing to do with the price a buyer will pay for a property now. It is only a value looking in the rear view mirror.

Unit Sales are down and it feels worse than it is because of how high we went before coming down. Historically (discounting the last 3 years), unit sales are still steady. We won’t see prices start to stabilize and rise steadily again until inventory is reduced from the psychology of buyers and sellers adjusting. That is, sellers realize they have to be more flexible in price and buyers finally realize that is what is happening and therefore the bottom has arrived. Once the psychology switches the market will steady and start to increase again. When will that happen?

Couldn’t say…don’t have a clue.

By easyasabc

November 28, 2006 11:35 PM | Link to this

Rich R. is right. Prices are soaring in Raleigh.

a 1400 square foot house might cost you as much as $47K.

If you think I’m kidding, check out realtor.com

Hurry — before they drop to $40K.

By Lou Vales

November 28, 2006 11:47 PM | Link to this

Just returned from annual trip to Zero Lot Line Paradise(Boynton, Delray and Western Lake Worth???) and was once again elated by our move to Carolinas 3 years ago. This year had brother in law(a realtor) move outside of Atlanta another brother in law(a realtor) moves to Asheville next March.

Enjoy Paradise?? as the thonged French Canadians are just about to arrive. The Early Bird should be chirping!!

By easy is pathetic

November 29, 2006 12:00 AM | Link to this

easyasabc, I wouldn’t be surprised if you actually did spend your time looking at Raleigh properties. Looking for anything you can come up with to post on here to detract from the fact that PBC homes dropped 12% in price. “Prices are rising as we speak”. hahaha This is only the beginning.

By the way, where is your idiot friend Maxmoose. Not a peep from him. He’s probably getting ready to jump off of his (oops, no, it’s his friend Ingber’s) balcony. You know, the 50 sq. apartment he can’t sell.

By surferdude

November 29, 2006 12:44 AM | Link to this

sh—- dudes, i can’t watch this any more. they are making jerks of all you dudes.
“Joseph Ingber” is the biggest criminal attorney in town here (LA). the dude from LaJolla should have gotten the joke.

By nicetry

November 29, 2006 08:27 AM | Link to this

Only one of each name ? Even multiple “surferdudes”

eg:

surferdude - a Windows Developer located in Florida, U.S.A

By iceprincess

November 29, 2006 09:58 AM | Link to this

8:27 in Florida is 5:27 in LaJolla. Someone was up all night again, searching the internet. Even if he’s right, he didn’t report the obvious. He’s been had.

There, there, darling, stop pouting :-)

By .

November 29, 2006 10:26 AM | Link to this

YOU MORONS. A 15 year old decides to borrow someone’s mailbox name,,, yours mine anyone’s,,, and look what happens. He(?) hasn’t even said anything in 2 days and you are still arguing over him.

YOU people told him everything he need to know about listings by filling the column with them. HE didn’t know anything before that. He tried to give the address of one building in Florida and he even got that wrong. He had to correct it in a later post. The rest of what he said was all someone taking high school math would know now.

Why don’t they verify the email address with the owner before letting a post thru?

By Ken

November 29, 2006 11:16 AM | Link to this

Figures Lie and Liars Figure. The closings in October of 05 had nothing to do with Wilma. Those closed properties were, for the most part, sold in September. There may have been some delays in closing but you should understand the numbers before commenting on them.

By Realist

November 29, 2006 11:23 AM | Link to this

Easy, I don’t blame you; now that stats have undeniably proved you wrong (and quite foolish) about “prices going up as we speak” I would want this Blog closed also. Let me give you a lesson about basic economics. Your greed as well as thousands of other real estate “investors” placed us all in this mess. No one has “invested” in real estate in Palm Beach County in four years, it has all been specuvesting. So you can rant and rave about other posters in your immature ad hominem attacks or you can discuss your thoughts. Whatever you do you can not change the real estate environment, it is bleak in PBC for many reasons. One, prices are out of wack with the median income. Two, the insurance rates are unaffordable for the median income. Three, the taxes imposed by the local governments are unaffordable by the median income. Four, the median income folks have resorted to high risk poisonous loans which are now becoming unaffordable due to resets. Five, the demographics of the area is changing for the worse as proven by enrollment PBCSD enrollment numbers families are leaving the area. Six, there is no real job base in PBC except the local governments which have become bloated because of point number three. Seven, folks moving to PBC have to come from somewhere, and in somewhere prices are falling as well. Eight, Baby boomers have not saved a dime in their lives so if you think they are going to save the day you are sadly mistaken. Nine, recent trends with baby boomers have indicated they do not want to move away from their friends and families as much as their parents did in retirement. Ten, SOS is in the process of demolishing the second home market and will never be altered as it is a constitutional amendment in which the people have to vote to change so therefore who will want to vote to raise their own taxes by thousands and thousands of dollars. Eleven, hurricanes. To save you time coming up with a rant against me, I have never been a realtor nor have I rented more than 1 year of my life. Economics and psychology of bubbles interest me that is why this topic attracts my attention. And before you label me a have not, I can assure you that I “have” more at my age 36 than you did when you were the same age (of course adjusted for inflation). I did it the old fashioned way, saved and purchased my homes wisely while building a business from scratch. So if you want to attack, disassemble my points.

By cw1900

November 29, 2006 11:46 AM | Link to this

Ok, here goes…. I usually don’t cut and paste articles or other data like others, but this article I found, I couldn’t resist and directly relates to what many of us here say, most recently by N8tive, is one of so fla’s, actually the whole country’s, biggest problem leading to our little RE problem we find ourselves in today.

Foreclosures, money problems, desperate sellers, the vast majority of them, I believe, are mostly people who wrongly and ignorantly jumped on the bandwagon to “take advantage” of “opportunities”, “wonderful options”, and crap financial services provided by idiots who wrote the following article. I will blank out her name and particulars (I’ll call her Idiot Barbie), but this is priceless crap:

===

“The rules of money have dramatically changed, yet we are still financing today’s home with yesterday’s mortgage. When I started in the mortgage industry 30 years ago you could only obtain a conventional mortgage or a government mortgage (FHA or VA). Both products were fixed rate mortgages and the majority of the loans were for 30 years.

Households typically had one wage earner, who got a job with a “good company (the phone company, electric company, auto manufacturing etc.) and worked until retirement. Upon retirement you received your gold watch and pension which was supplemented by social security benefits. College was not considered a “must” and many folks got a good job with just a high school education. You saved your money at the local bank, and celebrated paying off your mortgage. Bills were paid in cash as credit was not widely available and no one had ever heard of the term FICO score. In other words most folks followed the same rules of money that their grandparents did.

Enter the future! Cash is virtually extinct. We pay our bills with credit cards. We pay our credit cards, mortgage payments and utility bills online. Everyone knows their FICO score because it impacts your rates on everything from financing to insurance. We have financial professionals to manage our investment accounts and advise us on retirement.

Pension, what is that? Even if you thought you had one, many pension funds are seriously under funded and scandals such as Enron have taught us that we had better seriously consider funding our own retirement. Most employers have opted for 401k or similar plans in lieu of pensions so most of us are self-funding our retirement. Social Security is no longer viewed as a “given” but as a bonus. Even sacred cows such as government and union pensions are getting a closer look.

Many of us do not pay cash for our cars, heck we do not even buy them anymore. We lease them and pay rent on the portion that we use and turn them in every few years for a new payment. Many households have two wage earners who consider it of vital importance that their children go to college. We are a global economy and what happens in China can impact your mortgage rates.

With all this change financing your home has changed dramatically also. And although you hear the media tossing around disparaging terms such as exotic loans and toxic mortgages, the truth of the matter is that homeowners have never before had so many wonderful options available to them to purchase that American dream…. their own home.

The menu of options includes such fare as Adjustable Rate mortgages, hybrid adjustable rate mortgages (fixed for 3, 5, 7,or 10 years then reverting to an adjustable rate loan), interest only fixed rate mortgages, interest only adjustable rate mortgages, 100% mortgages, piggyback mortgages, option ARMS, and buy down mortgages. In addition these loans can be available in A paper, Alt A paper and the sup-prime markets. Government loans are still widely available, and these include fixed rate and adjustable rate loans as well as buy down loans.

It’s not your grandfather’s mortgage anymore! You have to buy today’s home purchase with today’s rules of money. With such a vast array of financing options available to the average borrower, how does one choose what is best? Are some of these products actually exotic or toxic? Why would anyone consider anything but a fixed rate mortgage? Where does one turn for advice? How does one shop for mortgage financing?

Enter the era of the Mortgage Planner. Mortgage Planning is a relatively new concept. Mortgage Planners are certified by the Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist institute and must take an extensive course and pass an exam in order to obtain their designation. (www.cmpsinstitute.org) Mortgage Planners are committed, qualified and equipped to implement cash flow and real estate equity management strategies enabling their clients to build and conserve wealth, become debt free sooner and achieve financial freedom. A mortgage planner will know how to analyze your financial profile and will suggest various strategies to finance your home purchase.

A mortgage planner will know how these financing options can impact your financial profile now and in the future. A mortgage planner is building a practice and will help you to manage your mortgage over the years. A mortgage planner views the mortgage loan as a financial tool to create and manage wealth rather than a huge debt. A mortgage planner can offer suggestions on how to restructure your financing so that you are able to save for retirement and pay your mortgage too! A mortgage planner is in the relationship for the long haul and has a vested interest in giving you good advice. Mortgage planners do not charge up front for their advice and expertise. They work in conjunction with a licensed lender and are paid by the lender at closing.

If you are not speaking with a mortgage planner chances are that you are speaking to a sales person for the lender. Sales people are given the titles of loan officer, loan originator, mortgage advisor etc. A bank or lender can hire anyone to be a loan originator. They do not have to have a financial background, they do not have to have a college education, they do not have to pass an exam or any licensing requirements. As long as you are employed by a licensed lender you can originate loans for that company. You can literally be a ski instructor one day and a mortgage originator the next day.

If you are thinking of purchasing real estate for your home, investment or as a second home you owe it to your self to speak with a mortgage planner before you look at property and before you get your pre-approval. Consider a session with a mortgage planner as a important first step in the home buying or home financing process. After a session with a mortgage planner will be armed with knowledge and ready to shop for your real estate with peace of mind and financial confidence.

For more information on Mortgage Planning or mortgage options, come to homebuyer seminar Nov 30, at the Crowne Plaza Hotel, Exit 000, Clark from 7:30- 9:30p.m.

Call the Registration Hotline at 1-800-000-0000 ext 000

Idiot Barbie is a certified mortgage planner with xxxx Mortgage Co., with offices in xxxx. xxxx is the nation’s largest non-bank affiliated retail mortgage lender and is licensed in xx states. xxxx has over 30 years experience in the mortgage industry. You can contact her at 1-800-000-0000 x 204 or on her cell at 000-000-0000.

Published in the Nov. 16, 2006 issue of the xxxxxx”

===

ok, I’m back….People, this chick is pandering and slobbering all over the financial idiots of our populace. What she is trying to sell is junk advice, it is horrible advice. People, stay away from exotic loans, don’t lease your cars, and don’t put your financial future on a credit card. She is matter of factly telling people this is the new way to run your financial life. It is wrong, it is horrible advice, and it is not normal to people who have accumulated anything. It is normal to your broke brother in law.

Exotic loans have gotten countless people here in serious trouble. Those people should have never been given the loans to be begin with. I’m surprised this idiot didn’t break into a dance about ripoff reverse mortgages and the ever popular and stupid, crap whole life insurance.

The Great American monthly car payment (2 in most households) for the middle class is probably the single biggest detractor and roadblock to someone accumulating wealth in their lifetime. Just run the numbers on how much your car payments are each and every month and what that same money invested wisely each and every month would pile up to be over the next 20 years. It will blow your mind. That is one very expensive vehicle you are driving when you look at the lost opportunity cost of that dough. Fact is, most middle class families have no business buying or leasing new vehicles. The financial numbers don’t add up. It is one of the largest problems today and no one sees it. Pay cash for a car at any cost.

Credit card debt is piling up at record rates, we have talked about that here countless times. It is not prudent advice to carry these huge balances. It is even worse to refi them into a new mortgage. Now, you are paying for last year’s vacation on a new 30 year mortgage with a bigger balance, and in two years time you will have racked up credit bills all over again. Refinancing credit cards in a mortgage does not make your problem go away. It will make it worse because you have not fixed the problem. That problem is you spend more than you bring in, and unless you change your spending habits that you do now to keep up with the Jones’, you will be in even bigger troulble soon enough.

This chick is concerned not for you, only that she can put into highest commissionable products so she can pay her own leased car payment, period.

Bottom line, notice how people who do the opposite of what this pandering fool suggests are not desperate, are sleeping very well at night, are not in over their heads. Like I said, those who do, are the ones we talk about. They are hopeless. There is nothing we can do for them. Someone here recently described a couple he knew who overpaid for something new and nice in the wrong area, only to spend another 50k in upgrading to granite, etc, only to find now they are desperate and have to sell and will be losing at least 80k to get out of it. I will bet those people have an exotic mortgage, 2 car payments, and piles of credit card debt. People like that are fools and will never have any true wealth.

One these people have all foreclosed, those still standing will be in for a great ride, and people like that couple will running to their next get rich quick scheme that will inevitably fail.

Just my rant for the day….

and now, a few quick notes from CW:

• To MikeG re vacation lakfront rentals…As to your question on vacationrentals.com and looking for adecent lakehouse to rent. I have found sites like that one and other national, generic vacation rental sites are usually not very up to date and they tend to be overpriced. Your best bet is to get a general idea of the area (lake) you are looking for and contact directly local RE offices in that immediate area. Most of them will handle nightly, weekly, etc rentals for owners of said homes and have an extensive knowledge of the nightly rental market. Those national sites you are referring to simply do not. My properties up there that are homes (2 homes, the rest are lakefront lots that I have owned for quite some time), I do have contracted out to a local RE office that has a staff that does nothing but these short term rentals full time and they excellent. My rentals here in PB County I handle all of the renting myself, but out of state is much harder not being there to do correctly, and the owner of the RE office is a personal friend of mine, so it works out fine.

As to where this lake area is located, that I will not say. This blog has quite a few nuts on it as we all have read, and any little bit of clues as to any of us, and the kooks who have too much time on their hands will sit there all night under a dangling light bulb hanging from the ceiling by a wire, and try to find our identities. If I told you the specific lake and town, I am known enough arounnd that area, that it could be done. Paranoid. Yes. I will tell you that it is in one of the southeastern states and not Florida. That narrows it down to 8 states. Hope that helps. Enjoy your vacation.

• Cmon people, those redneck stories were hilarious, poor Rich R was relentlessly getting pounded that day, but we were all laughing, admit it. I hope a few more are sprinkled in every now and then. It keeps Rich R on his toes.

• Don’t get mad, Rich R, I don’t agree with everything you say, some things you say I do agree with, but you’re ok. Remember, there are always two sides, and easyasabc makes his case pretty good, otherwise, there wouldn’t be all of those “easy” haters. They rant when they can’t refute.

• To the person who the other day said that Jeff is playing all of us, you are right. Think about it, he types in a few sentences of whatever to start a new blog, and whammo, the vultures have racked up 200 replies. What an easy gig for our boy Lollipop. Maybe he really doesn’t need to wash Frank’s car?

cw

By Clarification of Quote

November 29, 2006 12:17 PM | Link to this

“Remember, he who owns property is rich…”

If you have a mortgage on your property, the bank or mortgage companies owns the property. All you did was sign on a dotted line and anyone can do that.

You really own property when you do not have any mortgage on your property.

It is a fact that over 97% of you do not even own your own car but are leasing.

It is a fact that over 95% of you have a mortgage on your property and thus, do not own the property clear and free.

If you think you are rich or more better off than a person living in a less expensive home, because you are living in a one million dollar mansion and have a mortgage of 900K, you are only kidding yourself.

By MikeG

November 29, 2006 12:32 PM | Link to this

Thanks CW,

Im looking for a nice cabin to rent on a yearly basis, I would like to find a place that gets a little bit of snow. It is nice to see snow once in awhile.

I grew up in Sothern California, so to get in the snow was a short drive.

Just love sitting there on a big front porch and look out onto a lake and watch it snow. Just Priceless.

By NEW NUMBERS

November 29, 2006 12:32 PM | Link to this

Did everyone see the new numbers? Guess it says that 29% of you realtors dropped out.

Okay 29% of 12,000 realtors = 3480.

12,000 - 3480 = 8520

Is my math correct? We are now down to approximately 8520 realtors here? Can anyone verify this?

As we speak, the number of realtors here are going DOWN?????

Do you know when prices of homes will go up?

When realtors have to sell their own homes, you will see what their asking price will be. Yes, the realtors who will be loosing their own homes will be asking more than their neighbors.

It is just a matter of time.

By .

November 29, 2006 12:57 PM | Link to this

TO easyasabc:

Was that not you making jokes about Hitler cleaning the pool in Century Village? Now here you are “indignant” about antisemitic and racist remarks.

Rich R. publicly disowned the remamrks attributed to him. Despite what he may think privately, I believe him when he says he did not say those things publicly.

I am not sure he is right about you being Max the Moose. Max said things like “I think the best idea is not to judge someone by the clothers or the skin they wear.” Is that your alter ego, easy? Or are you not even capable of such fair and common-sense sentiments?

By .

November 29, 2006 01:11 PM | Link to this

I’m the original dot.

I don’t believe Easy/John is Max. Max’s vocabulary and writing style is better than Easy’s. Not that the content has much more value but Easy comes off like a goon who talks at you. Max is a j**s but different and Easy doesn’t have the brain capacity to alter his writing style in an appreciable way.

By Rich R

November 29, 2006 01:34 PM | Link to this

To CW.

I was the one with the friends trying to sell after buying overpriced home and will need at least $80K to get out if they find a buyer.

These folks do have an off beat mortgage, but not an extreme case.

They did an 80% first 2yr ARM and a 20% second, financing 100% of their overpriced home. The second is at 7.75% for almost $100K. Their first is coming up for adjustment next month. They have two car payments, both cars leased (BMW-$740/mo, SUV-$445/mo), they cary about $45K in unsecured creditcard debt and their recent insurance increase broke the bank.

It’s nuts they way some people live. I couldn’t sleep at night if that were me, but my combined unsecured creditcard debt this month is at $40 for the gas I bought last week. That’s just me I guess.

Easy, a quick note to you.

It’s becoming apparent to me that you enjoy yourself very much on and off blog.

Not knowing you, never meeting you, I will have to say that your posts and the radical mood swings would suggest that maybe you just party too much, and perhaps mixing your party favors too.

You went off yesterday like I’ve never seen before in all the months you been posting here.

From the outside looking in, and having absolutely nothing to gain from ANYTHING you do, I would like to try to get you to seriously consider slowing down a bit - on the partying I mean. It can’t be good for you, and it’s def. not good for us. I don’t know if it’s drinking, smoking, pills or whatnot, just give yourself a break man.

Like I said, I don’t know you, but I only wish well for you.

It’s nice to see that you perhaps feel bad about your recent rants.

peace!

By Tom Lawler

November 29, 2006 01:40 PM | Link to this

When the Palm Beach SF home sales were released last October — they showed only 630 SF home sales, the slowest for an October since at least the early 90’s — folks correctly blamed hurricane Wilma. When this October’s SF home sale report showed only 618 SF home sales, some folks said “gee, it’s only down a bit from last year!” In reality, that sales pace is indicative of an extraordinarily weak housing market — good god, sales where higher than that in every other October since 1993!!! And, remember the “crazy” days of 2003 — when SF sales in October of that year 1,457?

Last October you could blame the weak sales on a hurricane; this October, to a different storm that happens when a bubble bursts!

By easyasabc and Realist points

November 29, 2006 01:51 PM | Link to this

To Realist

Telling me you own property, i will consider you a “have”. And the point that someone mention about owning clear title on property is also true. Sorry if i did not make myself clear on that. Anyone can put their signature down on any item, car, house, boat or land and say they are the owner. As long they keep up with the payments and attain title, they will be the owner, not the bank or lending company.

Let me reply to Realist on his/her “Eleven points” that you made.

1. • Home prices and salaries here, yes salaries for most jobs are low. White collar job salalries will rise faster than blue collar job salaries. Your education pays off later in life with salary. So parents, tell your kids to stay in school or learn how to make a cash business and cheat the IRS if they want a house along the interscoastal. But if you look at S.F. area house price/salary ratio or NY area, you can tell they are like us also.

2.- We don’t run the insurance industry. Only the govt. can direct them in price hikes. One thing needs to understand about this country, it is lawyers, insurance and medical companies that make all the laws and deals that makes this world go around. They know who’s pockets to fill to get what laws pass.

3.- Taxes and Death are the only two sure things in life we all have to look forward to. We just have to vote our politicians out if they raise our taxes to much. Wait until the “war” bill comes in for all of us to pay later on.

4.- How many of you had a gun towards your head as you sign for those loans to buy property here?

5.- Last time i remember, NYC, LA, SF, CHI are all cities with vast demographics, and they are doing ok. Some have to be a “realist” and tell ourselves that people from other countries do come here with money in their pockets. There is wealth beyond our shorelines in other areas. When they come, they will spend. Our govt. has nice little loan perks for people who move here with their business and buy real estate. Don’t sell the man from across the sea as being poor.

6.- Once, we had some of the largest companies based here. IBM, P&W, Motorola. But the local govt needs to lure more companies with incentives. In otherwords, the county needs a new marketing plan. Our biggest employers at teh present are Publix, Boca Raton Spa Club, and Palm Beach County school system. Scripps is on the horizon, so maybe they will drag other firms with them.

7.- Buyers from other locations sold at higher prices than what is offered here. We are still a bargin in housing costs than up north.

8.- Baby Boomers not saving? Could be, but it is hard to imagine for them not moving here. We have all this money being put into the area. Major investors are never wrong. They have people out there asking people of where they are heading and how much they will have when they do move. All those construction cranes we see from Miami to Jupiter mean something. And that something means more money will be arriving.

9.- Almost same as #8. Believe me, these people want to get away from their kids and ex’s and the cold winters. You dreamed all your life to move to Florida or Arizona, and after 40 years of work, they will change their minds before retiring? Life is good here, and people know it. Just take even 1% of all the Baby Boomers ready to retire. I take that number for them to move here. You will end up with a housing shortage here. The “Boom’ will return here. It is a matter of time.

10.- I think you are talking about SOH? That is a political game. We have no control on that.

1. • Hurricanes. Ok, we knew they had a bad season going 6-6. Be happy they fired their coach. Oh, wait a minute, you mean the other hurricanes. What about floods in the northeast?, tornados in the plains?, blizzards in the midwest, water shortage in the Rockies? Or even earthquakes out west? You see where i am going with this? Chances are better on you getting killed on I-95 than you losing your home in a hurricane. Chances are better you can get hit by lightening than your roof beng blown off. Chances are better that Realtors will be offering 2% commission before we see a Cat 5 storm. Ok, that last one might be off. We can go another 40 years without a storm hitting here. You may never see again in our life time of what we had before. Don’t let weather fears stop people on living a life.

   No, i will not attack you. You worked hard and have a business that contributes to the area. I just wanted to reply to your 11 points.

   On the Realtors note of # of them leavng. That is not surprising. I know a few Realtors selling their property, and they are the highest ones in their communities for house prices. Realtors will sell other peoples properties cheap, but not their own!

Life is Good in Palm Beach

easyasabc

By Realist

November 29, 2006 02:37 PM | Link to this

To Easy:

You were correct I meant both “Hurricanes”. Football team full of criminals, always has been. Also you were correct on SOH, freudian slip with SOS. There is something wrong here, did we just have a civil conversation on this Blog?

By Rich R

November 29, 2006 04:57 PM | Link to this

Congrats to Easy for being sober for a day.

Good for you man. Let’s see if we can do another day.

I here for you.

By North County Resident

November 29, 2006 05:01 PM | Link to this

I have been reading this blog for a couple of weeks now and quite frankly too many of you guys are full of your selves. The market is trashed and will not recover until the insurance and RE tax crisis is fixed. Even all of those future wall street retirees have limits. One great income year can be followed by an absolute disaster. Busts generally follow booms. It is the nature of the beast.

The much needed market fix is also predicated on declining interest rates. And that is possible only if the dollar does not continue it’s free fall against the Euro and the asian currencies do not get to nervous. (That is another bubble waiting to pop.) China will begin imploding in the spring of 2008. Even an increase in personal consumption will not save them.

Personaly the feed is trying to balance inflation,interest rates and the dollar. A not so easy task. I am extremely concerned as to why FANIE MAE and FREDIE MAC have yet to report their revised financial statements for the last three years? Could it be possible that the losses are in the hundreds of Billions of dollars. They have to be lossing tons of money on their portfolio’s that have not been sold off to the Japanese and the Chineese.

Somebody is loosing a ton of money on my 4.36 fixed 15 year mortgage and my 20 year 5.16 boat loan. Have any of you guys driven through Abaco and Paseo in Jupiter lately. The number of homes for sale or unoccupied in Tuscany and Martinique is incredable. Paseo is not fairing much better. You have to look hard though because the signs are stuck in obscure windows in unoccupied homes with no window treatments.

I am not in RE but have 25 years of home buying experience. And the only way that you can ever get ahead financialy is to moniter and measure your cash flow. As for the average Joe in Palm Beach County, Insurance is sucking the life out of cash flow. That is going to eventuqally hit all of your local business. No body in my upper income middle manager neighborhood is spending any money. We would eventually like to by down but unless they fix the RE tax situation we will most likely leave the state when our youngest graduates from high school.

By A.P.

November 29, 2006 05:57 PM | Link to this

During the Thanksgiving Weekened, I attended several parties. Of course, At one point or another the real estate market issue came up. I did notice a pattern.

There’s a saying that goes like this “a chain is only as strong as its weakest link”. I did notice that several homeowners who were trying to sell their homes had a mentality of “I’ll just keep lowering my price because I’m still making a profit”. It did get my attention. Might it be that ONE of the WEAKEST LINKS in this housing slump be HOMEOWNERS who are not standing their ground? We’ll see.

I also did come across two couples that had left S. Florida for the promise land. Reasons were property taxes and insurance. One couple left to Georgia and the other to North Carolina. GUESS WHAT! BOTH ARE BACK! While they got their dream home with little or no mortgage, It was not was they had dreamed. They cited horrible school system, weather, and a SHALLOW GENE POOL! Once the dust settles, We’ll have more stories like these. Some people have an exaggerated KNEE-JERK REACTION!

I also came across with someone who just bought a piece of property in N. Carolina and was closing in early December. I told her congratulations and that she would be receiving a PIE at her closing. Obviously, She didn’t get it but I cracked up by myself.

Rich R, You’re a good sport. I enjoyed those N. Carolina stories. I did laugh out loud several times and my wife would ask me what’s so funny and I would tell her NOTHIHG honey. You took a beating and was gracious about it. Keep applying the ICE!

I have a question for Easyasabc. You’ve mentioned before the 1% tax rate to solve the property tax problem. I think it’s a great idea. It works in California why not here. What are the obstacles to have it implemented in Florida?

As for the direction of real estate in Palm Beach, ONLY TIME WILL TELL!

By student

November 29, 2006 06:33 PM | Link to this

I am trying to learn about the stock market and I need help. I don’t know anything about real estate. Here is my problem.

The stocks of local homebuilders are soaring. They have been going up non-stop since mid-summer. KB Homes was up almost 2% today. Profunds Ultra Real Estate was up 2.25 per cent today.

Some of you have me convinced that home prices will fall 50%. What am I missing? Are all those institutional buyers on Wall Street so stupid?

Profunds is up almost 60% this year. It is not too hard to become rich in a few decades with returns like that.

So: are all you guys that much smarter than Wall Street? I need to know.

By Realist

November 29, 2006 06:41 PM | Link to this

To student:

“So: are all you guys that much smarter than Wall Street?” Yes.

By student

November 29, 2006 06:51 PM | Link to this

OK, realist. i accept that. Just one thing bothers me.

They are all amazingly rich, and you guys are all pretty poor.

That seems like a contradiction. Can you explain?

By Markmax33

November 29, 2006 07:01 PM | Link to this

I AM A PROUD RENTER!! EVERYONE SHOULD SELL AND RENT NEXT TO THE BEACH LIKE ME FOR $500/month IN LA JOLLA CALIFORNIA!! I pay less in rent than you do in HOA fees!

By to realist

November 29, 2006 07:07 PM | Link to this

hahahahahahahahah.

to student, very good reply. bravo to the kid for calling us geezers out.

way to go.

By cw1900

November 29, 2006 07:47 PM | Link to this

To Rich R,

Not surpising they have that much debt, they fit the pattern. Amazing, but not surprising. If that case is not extreme, imagine how many thousands of those scenarios are playing out right now in the county. This credit problem is real, and the fallout will be interesting. Some of those people who falsified their applications, and the brokers who knowingly processed those fraudulent applications should be prosecuted. Did you read the guy above with the 20 yr boat loan complaining? more on him in a minute.

….a few more notes from CW:

• I was in the car this afternoon and flipped through the stations and found a couple of pandering realtors called rocking real estate show (desperation is setting in) and loe and behold, guess what vehicle they were using to swindle the eldery portion of our population? Reverse mortgages. I’m starting to smell a horrible trend. Do not let any of your friends and relatives get into crap like that. If we are hearing this more and more in every medium possible by anybody with a real estate and/or insurance license (not sure what you need to peddle that garbage), imagine how high the commissions and how hard your parents or grandparents are getting scre@#d?

• To A.P. - They’re back from the promise land? I’ve heard the same stories, some we’ve read on this blog. The pattern is the same. You are correct. Good post. (a pie at the closing….easy will be proud of you….very funny….yes, Rich R was a good sport)

• To North County Resident - …”a 20 year 5.16 boat loan”? “No body in my upper income middle manager neighborhood is spending any money”?…..no surprise if they have 20 yr boat loans no matter what the price. I am like you described yourself, probably live within a couple of miles of you, however, I can sleep at night and spend money, and contrary to some here, I’ll actually spend some of it on my wife for an xmas present. Why?….because I don’t do car payments and boat payments and credit card payments and on and on with the stupid payments that most of the world voluntarily gets into and then bit#$es about it. The boat I owned and the boat I currently own I actually paid for. I know it is unique, and it’s probably not as big as yours, but I won’t be paying for it for years to come on something that continues to fall in value. Cash flow is one thing, you are correct, but your way of cash flow is not conducive to accumulating wealth very well. Sell the boat, sell you cars, and rebuy lesser of all for cash. No need to do it now, but you can thank me later.

• To Markmax33 - I thought you said you paid $450….uh oh, a discrepancy in your lie, perhaps?

cw

By Mike Fink

November 29, 2006 08:14 PM | Link to this

I might just have to eat my sock for this, but I actually agree with Easy on this one:

I have a question for Easyasabc. You’ve mentioned before the 1% tax rate to solve the property tax problem. I think it’s a great idea. It works in California why not here. What are the obstacles to have it implemented in Florida?

I think that is a great idea, do away with SOH, just put in a 1% flat tax on value. Whatever the value does, the tax rate adjusts yearly. I actually have a better idea (which I have posted before), but govt will figure out some way to tweak the numbers on my system. 1% is 1%, its VERY simple. :)

What are the obsticles? Ugh, govt is greedy pig, and has figured out a way to tax the life out of people without ever upsetting the majority (because the majority will always be protected). What the majority does not realize is that the crazy tax system here is helping to kill the resale value of your home! Yes, you pay less tax then your neighbor. However, you need to find someone with 2-3X the HH income you have to be able to purchase your house. Guess what? Those people don’t want your little shoebox! :)

1% flat tax is a great idea, I would definately support that. It’s fair, it will get housing moving again (at least better then it is now), and will stop the madness in our local/state govt tax base!

People do not realize it, but SOH is the greatest thing that has EVER happened to taxing authorities! They LOVE it. Much like the British did right around the American Revolution (taxation w/o representation anyone).

I will now resume arguing with everyone, but I did have to agree with a good idea when I saw it! :)

By Realist

November 29, 2006 08:28 PM | Link to this

To:By student

Please refer to 2000 dot com collapse, 80’s stock bubble, 1929 and last but not least the tullip bubble. Those who fail to study history are doomed!

By MikeG

November 29, 2006 08:47 PM | Link to this

Agreed,

I think something has to be done about the property tax, my in laws have a house in Califorina worth over 800k and guess what there prop tax was? it was under 3 thousand. But they do pay state income tax. I guess we would have to look at the benifits to a lower prop tax and the disadvantages.

I like that we are talking about something usefull now.

By John

November 29, 2006 08:50 PM | Link to this

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floridalandboomofthe_1920s

History has a funny way of repeating itself!!

By student

November 29, 2006 08:53 PM | Link to this

what’s a tullip?

do you mean the pretty little flower called a tulip?

By Reverse Mortgages

November 29, 2006 08:56 PM | Link to this

Reverse mortgages have been around for a long time. My uncle went into a reverse mortgage in 1994.

He sold his cabin to two physicians. The physicians gave my uncle money to live on as the time went by and last year was the last payment and my uncle had to move out of his cabin then into a nursing home where he died shortly afterward.

Reverse mortgages is a more advanced version of living off of HELOC loans. You are just decreasing your equity to zero in both scenarios.

By student

November 29, 2006 09:06 PM | Link to this

To Realist:

I mean no disrespect, but my older brother’s friend, for example, has been out of school a few years. He is an MD (Managing Diector) for a firm on a Broad Street. He earns far more in one year than you will in several lifetimes, whether the market goes up, own or sideways, and this assumes you are an educated professional. He does financial analysis. He sells nothing to anyone. Once in a blue moon he has to do an interview.

Why are these people paid more than you for their financial opinions?

By jean23

November 29, 2006 09:40 PM | Link to this

Best new local classifieds site in South Florida is called pines4sale. http://www.pines4sale.com/ is a local Free Classifieds for the city of pembroke pines Florida.

By You think this is NC?

November 29, 2006 09:47 PM | Link to this

I have quite a few stories growing up in a little town with a population of only hundreds of people in Florida.

The first one that comes to mind is a story my dad told me about some brothers that were out chopping wood. Apparently the oldest brother bet the other brother that he didn’t have the guts to cut off his finger. Older brother proceeds to put his finger on top of the block, little brother swings and chops off his finger. Older brother then bets him that he wouldn’t do it twice. Little brother chopped off other finger also.

My cousin then told me a story of two other brothers who used to for fun shoot at each other with 22s while holding books infront of themselves. Neither one actually penetrated fully through the books suprisingly.

And my own personal story. In our family it was a tradition for the adults to get a little drunk on christmas eve and then after the kids go to bed, they would go out rabbit hunting. They split into two teams and then haul a*s across fields and woods with one person running a spotligt with at least 3 or more people hanging out of the cab or box of the pickup blasting away at rabbits. The losing team buys all the winners alcohol the next day.

The fields and woods were open land west of what is I-95 around the Yamato Rd area (IBM area) in the 1950s.

The chopping wood incident was done very near the park of Africa USA, an amusement park no one today has ever heard of. It was a famous wild animal tourist park. It was located what is now Camino Gardens near the Boca Hotel. That also happened sometime in the 1950s.

By You think this is NY?

November 29, 2006 11:45 PM | Link to this

I remember when the island was nice. It was all fields and reedy shorelines. In the North high rocks piled up on one another to form good observation posts. We would pass Indians on their way to something they cared about more than this place, which was hard to get to, and presented few advantages once gotten to. Then the Indians, just as glad to be rid of the place, struck a deal with Peter Minuet and put it in his hands, for the benefit of his company. In exchange they took some iron cooking utensils and household goods, totaling about 60 gilders, maybe 800 bucks today. They could get plenty of acreage, but iron utensils were hard to come by.

Next thing you know there are cottages everywhere, fences, cobble-stoned paths, horses sh—ing everywhere, people pi—ing everwhere — what should I tell you, the place was ruined.

Still in all, Manhatten Island turned out to be a heck of a real estate deal.

By easy and other nc haters

November 29, 2006 11:48 PM | Link to this

no one like haters. haters are like girliemen. anyway keep hating, i see your prices keep dropping but this is off the chain. loser easy is watching his money walk away everyday. that is why he hates nc.

Only Fort Myers-Cape Coral took a bigger fall, posting a 44 percent decline in median sales price, from $445,100 to $249,200, the Florida Association of Realtors reported on Tuesday.”

“‘We now have to come back to reality,’ she said. ‘I am explaining to my sellers in Myakka that the bubble has busted. They’re not going to get $350,000-$400,000 for a 10-acre parcel like they used to. They’ll get $200,000.’”

“‘All I can say is nothing in my neighborhood is moving,’ Yetta Levitt said, noting that one of the less expensive, nonwaterfront homes in her 210-home subdivision sold last month for $410,000. ‘Prior to that sale, I believe the last sale was November 2005.’”

By RCA IS BACK

November 29, 2006 11:54 PM | Link to this

Just when they thought It was all over I put the whole world on my back And broad shoulders

The boy RCA Who you know could talk over tracks like that (TAKING YOUR FORECLOSURES OVER) Guess what, SOUTH FLORIDA We back

And I ain’t never been Afraid of a HOUSING drought Since I was six/seventeen To get the money down south

Bout it, bout it Ask the MAN Pimp C Ask my homie Bun B

I run the streets The streets don’t run me Y’all run, we chill Still waters run deep

I repeat Sing along with me I run the streets The streets don’t run me

Ladies saying Where you been Superman With CLOWNS AND SKIRTS spending 10 million In media on my hands

The Bruce Wayne Of the game have no fear When you need me Just throw your ROC signs in the air, yeah

BYE HOUSING HOES AND EQUITY SUCKERS

By .

November 30, 2006 12:16 AM | Link to this

Sounds just like my son. Another nerdy white teenager who’s afraid of girls. Knows his hip from his hop though.

By by who

November 30, 2006 12:53 AM | Link to this

state your name BY.

people just dont claim themselves any more.

By crazydem

November 30, 2006 07:24 AM | Link to this

Couple thoughts for your Thursday morning…

Student-You’re right, given the level of expertise displayed on this blog, I’ve been encouraging some of the guys on here they should be working for a brokerage house, the fed, or a large metropolitan city advising them on market conditions. Lots of timers on here waiting for conditions to improve.

BTW-Ask the dude with the boat loan who owns the bonds securing his loan. (Hint-their alphabet won’t show up on this blog.)

-Not everyone bought at the peak.

-You only lose money if you sell.

-New renter: Know the facts before you speak.

-La Jolla Stoner Boy-Please explain to us why you are reading the Post online from SD? Also, how the hell did you even find this paper anyway? (let’s see. Google search ‘second tier paper in mid-size city’) Maybe you really live in Imperial Beach and are P##d off you can’t buy into the market..? I have a friend in La Jolla-bought a house there about 4 years ago-paid about 30% of what it’s worth now. He’s not selling-doesn’t need to. Are you one of those bitter guys that missed that run up? You should have gotten in years ago. What’s the matter-didn’t know then what you know now? Guess you have alot of time to stare at the ceiling of your bedroom in the duplex you rent with three others.

By to 20yr boat loan guy

November 30, 2006 09:25 AM | Link to this

You put that part about the boat loan in your post maybe as an afterthought, but it said volumes of what the guy cw was saying. He nailed it and there is a major problem with people and their attitudes on credit (I must have it now attitude), and a supposedly educated person as yourself missed it or passed over it as secondary info.

I have owned 5 boats over a period of 35 years. I love boats. I do not love boat financing. I never bought a boat I could not pay for within 3 or 4 years, even then I cringed, but it is something I love.

Did it ever occur to you that no matter how you work the numbers, that vessel is depreciating faster than you are paying off principal?

Next, good financial planning will tell you if that boat when you purchased it cost more than 25% of what your household income is in one year, you are buying something you really shouldn’t purchase. It is too much of your money spent on something that goes down in value. Example, if you make $200,000, if your boat cost you more than $50,000, you are taking too much of a chunk of your potential investable dollars and putting it into something cannot make money for you.

At least you have figured out the concept of household cash flow, which is good.

You say your neighborhood is filled with upper middle managers who aren’t buying anything. I know, a few of that kind that work for me. They all drive nicer automobiles than I do, and I supply them with their salary.

Some of them also must notice, when they are not too busy buying their wives another Lexus SUV on credit, that they are not getting the promotions as fast as some other people. People who are that careless with their own hard earned money cannot be as concerned with being good stewards with my money in day to day business operations. If they cannot successfully manage theirs, how can they with mine?

The funny thing is that everyone of them could live comfortable lives and not worry about money, but everything, I mean everything they purchase is usually a step above of what they really can afford, and what they can afford is very nice.

Believe me, business owners notice their employee’s personal lives.

By fLABOY

November 30, 2006 10:04 AM | Link to this

Yes, reverse mortgages have been around for years. They are just now in the past few years gaining popularity among the industry as a way to make great commish. They are ripe with fraud. Buyer beware.

Here’s what they really are. RM’s allow retirees to establish a line of credit against their house, rather like a mortgage, but taking money out instead of putting it in. I think it is a legal method of exploiting the elderly.

Just looks like a way to help them pay expenses and die in debt. But some say that should still be their choice. If they don’t know how to manage money by their 60s, who are we to tell them they can’t take advantage of a program like this? Until then, consider it a bad idea and another form of an exotic mortgage.

To dot: Now we know why you’re so bitter. Your kid is not living up to what you thought. Too bad.

About the the 20 year loan on the boat: Good points, but at least the man did do something right, the 15 yr mortgage is not a 40!

By .

November 30, 2006 10:05 AM | Link to this

Of course I claim myself, silly. I claim my son too. Thoses exemptions are worth money on my 1040.

By TANC

November 30, 2006 10:07 AM | Link to this

I apologize if I missed something within the idea, but the 1% Property Tax Rate across the board is a great sounding simple idea that won’t get passed. You need to get the current homesteaders on board with it and it won’t happen….

Reason it won’t happen is that it will mean large property tax increases for existing homesteaders if the 1% is based on the current value.

Case in point…

My home in Palm City is valued by the county at $572,000. It appraised recently for $540,000 by an independent appraiser and probably wouldn’t sell for that in the current market.

At 1% of the county’s value the tax would be $5,720.

I currently pay $3450 as I built the home 6 yrs ago at a cost of $235,000. That would be a $2,300 a year increase in taxes which is much, much worse than my recent increase in insurance!

Maybe I missed something from the idea that I didn’t read.

By Realist

November 30, 2006 10:57 AM | Link to this

to student:

I will go ahead and feed the troll here. You are making mistake young students make, they assume Wall Street and the study of economics are the same. Had you looked up my postings of previous bubbles you would learned that the big money guys lost big money and more importantly lost their clients money. Others were in fact manipulating information in order to enrich themselves (Please refer to Blood on the Street The Sensational Inside Story of How Wall Street Analysts Duped a Generation of Investors by Charles Gasparino). If you do your homework you will learn over time some pretty horrifying things about what Wall Street does to it’s clients. As to your brother’s cousin friend good for him (I know he doesn’t exist however I will play along). I have a real close family member who manages several mutual funds and makes a good living. Sometimes this person is right about the markets and sometimes this person is wrong. This person did not see the real estate bubble. So to answer your question, if you are smart, you can study economics, history and apply critical thinking and have nothing to do with Wall Street. By the way, I never have given any financial advice just my humble observations. (Ok, I am not that humble but we all have idiosycrancies don’t we? For example you get off on being a troll)

By Realist

November 30, 2006 11:02 AM | Link to this

To Tanc:

You are correct. Things will have to get really really bad like crisis level before voters will change the SOH. Too many people are in the same boat you are in. The snowbirds are outnumbered nor can they vote. SOH is here to stay for a long time.

By student

November 30, 2006 11:47 AM | Link to this

Realist, I am sorry that you are such a bitter and frustrated man that you have to insult a young person starting out in the world, who has done you no harm. I hope when I am your age I will have more patience and less cynicism. All the facts I gave you were true. BTW, that particular firm has (low) thousands of “MD”s and if their total compensation is not in at least 7 figures, their performance is suspect. Now, if I may, what I have observed in my short stay is that every day you guys argue back and forth, while you leave fortunes on the table — every day. Today, all major indices are down considerably, but the home home builders are rising considerably. KB Homes is up another 3% again this morning. Like it or not, Realist, something is happening, and your name is a misnomer. BTW, see this paper for Scripps deal which will bring money and workers to PBC.

I have made a decision for now. Despite the rise already in the housing stocks, I will still buy until the newspapers start to say that the housing market is improving. Then I will sell.

Thank you for your opinions crazydem, realist, anyone I forgot to mention.

By help needed

November 30, 2006 12:01 PM | Link to this

My father, age 80, is considering getting into some kind of mortgage program that sounds like a scam to me. He has been told the program is with FHA and he is to pay an individual $6,000 and he will not have to make his mortgage payments any longer. The contact was initiated by my father after he picked up a flyer in a Dr. office. He called the person and they came to his house. He is meeting with him again tomorrow and I plan to be there. I believe it is a reverse mortgage. Thank you for your information earlier, I think that is what it is.

Yes, he still has a mortgage. The reason is he had the house paid for and someone talked him into a line of credit mortgage. The money he received he spent.

Anyone have any info on anything like this. It sounds like the so-called free lunch that does not exist. He has preached to me all my life that you don’t get something for nothing and now he seems to be biting at every scam out there. I am afraid he is going to lose his home and whatever else he has.

Any advice is appreciated. Thank you.

By Realist

November 30, 2006 12:16 PM | Link to this

student:

Try as you like you cannot change the subject here. This is a Real Estate Blog not a Stock market blog. Red herrings won’t change the REAL estate market in Palm Beach County, however keep trying.

By 47 Month Housing Supplu

November 30, 2006 12:24 PM | Link to this

Hi,

My name is 47 Month Housing Supply. Just wanted to introduce myself to this lovely blog.

I’ll be around for a while, though I might be getting a legal name change soon, so you may see me posting under a different handle. I’m thinking of 60 Month Housing Supply. Nice ring, too it, huh?

By Realist

November 30, 2006 12:31 PM | Link to this

To:47 Month Housing Supply

Welcome to the forum. You might want teach student something about supply and demand. Do you have any idea when your name change may come through?

By 47 Month Housing Supply

November 30, 2006 12:50 PM | Link to this

Student,

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NT&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Check out this chart of Nortel. A good company with real products, not blue sky promises like some dot-com busts.

How many hundreds of days did it close up after the 2000 crash? Lots, huh.

Do you still think it’s a wise buy?

If you’re judging the real estate markets based on 1-day price fluctuations of home builders, then this whole investing thing might be EASY AS ABC for you. I’m sure you’ll be making tons of money.

By Rich R

November 30, 2006 12:53 PM | Link to this

I still think that the SOH has the essence of Taxation without Representation.

We’ve covered this before, and based on the simple fact that NON-Voting, Non-homesteaded properties are taxed at a higher level.

People who can vote, get protection with SOH, people who can’t vote get to pay much more, and some cases, triple.

That’s unfair to many, but not most.

By Realist

November 30, 2006 01:03 PM | Link to this

To Rich R:

You are correct SOH isn’t fair however the politics of the issue are hotter that Social Security. It will take a real crisis for the public to understand what it is doing to the marketplace.

By brace

November 30, 2006 01:06 PM | Link to this

I do not know much about these reverse mortgages, but I’m sure someone can give a few ideas. If you are skeptical, just don’t do it. Miss the appt. Tell your father no.

There is a special place in Hell for people who take advantage of old people. Its adjacent to the Child Molesters and Wife Beaters.

By student

November 30, 2006 01:17 PM | Link to this

Realist: You had better call up KB Homes and tell them they are not in the real estate business — they are making a terrible mistake.

Actually, this board is focused on housing. I hope you’re not going to argue that housing is what they do. There is more than one way to play the housing market.

KB Homes is now up 5% for today. If you had listened to me this morning instead of arguing with me for the past couple of hours, you could have bought full shares and sold already for $1,000+ profit, without getting up from your PC.

But Nooooooooo….you’re a realist. It’s more real to be poor, I suppose.

By Mike Fink

November 30, 2006 01:21 PM | Link to this

The only way we will see the 1% tax rate is if the housing collapse gets so bad that those who have lived here for a long time start to feel the pain felt by the newer residents.

I realize it will never get passed by a majority. It’s still wrong/unfair, and needs to go away to get this market moving again. Will it go away? I doubt it. Does that make it right? Absolutely not.

I am not picturing a revolt against the govt; what will happen is that values will fall so far that people might as well have revolted. :) Remember, if prices go down, taxes go down with them. One of the many reasons (like we needed more) why its NEVER a good time to overpay for a home.

By Rich R

November 30, 2006 01:40 PM | Link to this

As I’ve said many times before, most all of my family still in the NE had intended to retire to SoFla, are now looking at other possible area’s and the two biggest reasons are the Cost of insurance with high deductibles, and the unfair way they will be taxed on the non-homsteaded home. Everyone knows about this, at least on Long Island, and it’s talked about allot.

They feel suckered.

The people from the north are not new to High Prop. Tax, but when you combine it witht he crazy insurance premiums, even the folks from the north just say noway.

By Realist

November 30, 2006 01:57 PM | Link to this

student:

Sorry we don’t day trade nor do we gamble however, we just netted a few thousand before lunch while I taught you a few lessons (did have to leave my computer to get my coffee). You see if you study hard and create your own business you don’t have to risk your money to make money. You will however have to invest your money to grow the business. By the way I keep giving you all this free advice I need to start billing you as I don’t run a public school.

By crazydem

November 30, 2006 02:20 PM | Link to this

I kind of like this guy, “student.” He’s not a ‘sideliner’ like some others on here. Not afraid to play the housing sector, nice. A friend of mine has an RE ETF-it’s up around 15% for the year. Many of the same businesses in RE (Kolter, etc.) may (may, not sure) be involved in land and commercial RE, thus their stock continues to rise.

Or they may be liquidating inventory as we speak. Yes, the same inventory people on here are waiting around for thinking they are going to get their hands on. Yes I know, I told you before, some people on here think they can’t beat the banks and the corporations at their own game. Silly, isn’t it?

As for me, I wouldn’t but right now-they are up past their buy point IMO. Enjoy the ride my friend. Low Renta and others will be buying your shares 16 months from now when the Post runs the “Housing Market Picks Up” headline in the paper.

Student, you have learned. Buy low, sell high. Keep hanging around, you’ll learn from others’ mistakes. We have one guy proud of the fact that he’s living on a sand dune for $400/month on the border of Mexico. Although we haven’t heard from him today-they probably only run the generator from 5-8pm.

By student

November 30, 2006 02:49 PM | Link to this

student bought KB Homes at 50.39, sold some hours later at 51.82. How much money did I make? I am not as tacky as Realist.

(But maybe I made more than him today, for 60 seconds of work.)

I know I am leaving money on the table, but tomorrow is another day. Unlike Realist, I am going to walk on the beach and get laid today, maybe by his daughter — or grand-daughter. More important, i didn’t make an old fool of myself.

Sorry - I am getting like Realist, and that’s a BAD thing to be learning.

Crazydem - thank you for your encouragement and flexibility. I am proud to live in Broward County, the most Democratic county in the U.S.

By student

November 30, 2006 03:09 PM | Link to this

Oh! And I almost forgot the original question.

The homebuilders are not going out of business. It’s clear that a lot of people out there much smarter than me - and much smarter than Realist - are expecting homebuilders to have a heck of a year.

By RCA

November 30, 2006 03:56 PM | Link to this

“South Florida,’’ he said, ‘’is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past” according to a realtor who predicted that a land shortage will support higher prices indefinitely.” - New York Times, Trading Places: Real Estate Instead of Dot-Coms, 3/25/05

HA, HA, HA, HA, HA.

By Realist

November 30, 2006 04:29 PM | Link to this

student:

If you do that to my daughter you will go to jail for very long time after of course I take you to the Everglades and teach you another lesson today, and that would be how Florida Crackers take care of folks who intiate relations with a four year old!

By Mike Fink

November 30, 2006 04:39 PM | Link to this

From another blog:

Do the numbers.

Anyone who bought a house for example $550,000 with the intent to rent it out is totally screwed. Assume and this is a big assumption that they put 20% down and got a 6% interest only loan.

Yearly interest payments $33,000 Estimated Taxes $11,000 Insurance $ 4,000 HOA $ 3,000 Total $51,000 or $4,250 per month

They will never get that in rent and if they are lucky they will have negative cashflow of around $20,000 to $25,000 per year and now the house is only worth $400,000 and they can’t refi because the loan to value is 112.5%. Plus I am willing to bet that this imaginary fool has 95 to 100 percent finance so his carry cost are probably more.

South Florida is going to be a blood bath.

(Used totally without permission)

By to mike fink

November 30, 2006 06:05 PM | Link to this

Hey Mikey, There you go again with Florida is going to be a blood bath. I hope your right again for your sake because if you’re not the only thing you will be bathing in will be in your tears.

Did you find out how much it is monthly at a nursing home? Did the monthly fee equal the rent to own ratio? If not, what’s plan B. Don’t forget to take your high blood pressure medications.

By student

November 30, 2006 06:20 PM | Link to this

Realist:

4 years old? HAHAHA Ok, I guess not your daughter.

But what do you mean “another” lesson? You got your old cracker butt kicked on the first one. You let an adolescent earn as much in 60 seconds as you did all day — and the adolecscent called his shot.

I sure hope you are not in a business giving financial advice to people.

What do you do, haul trash? Sell bait? You have the smug arrogance of an insurance salesman, but I don’t think you could be doing something that professional.

No offense, of course, Realist.

By by help needed

November 30, 2006 06:22 PM | Link to this

brace,

thank you for your kind help. i do appreciate it.

i thought there maybe would be someone here on this real estate site that could help me what this stuff is, but maybe you all are just too busy.

i have talked with my father and i think i talked him into rescheduling this appt. i’m going to pick him up so he will not be home tomorrow when the salesman comes by. my instincts tell me this is wrong and seems to cost too much money.

thanks again.

By MikeG

November 30, 2006 06:41 PM | Link to this

Always follow your instincts. If it seems to good to be true it most likley is.

You need to ask your dad does he really need the money?

Is your father a veteran, if he is there might be a pension that he can apply for. There is a program for assisted living facilities called aid and attendance. He just had to serve 1 day in war time and make under a certain income and he can qulify. I think he can still apply for it and not move into an assisted living facility.

But I think a reverse mtg is a bad idea. If you can try and meet with this guy yourself and check references and find out what he is all about. If he strikes you as a slick snake oil salesman and you are already un easy about this deal. Then just tell him to leave your dad alone.

By mr. magoo

November 30, 2006 08:00 PM | Link to this

A reverse MG is a bad idea. It would take forever to get anywhere and it would be hard to steer. You could smash your grill just trying to back out of your driveway. Plus, it is easier to put gas in than to get it out.

I guess it would be cheaper, though.

By Realist

November 30, 2006 08:03 PM | Link to this

student:

We both agree on one thing, you are adolescent. Time for bed now, class will begin again bright and early. Remember to study your lessons about previous bubbles.

By student

November 30, 2006 08:14 PM | Link to this

Oh, yes. The bubble lodges in the brain of an elderly person like yourself, causing paralysis, amnesia, and expressive apahasia. Involuntary contortions of the facial muscles can simulate inappropriate affect.

Now I undersand what happened to you, Realist. I’m very sorry.

By cw1900

November 30, 2006 08:40 PM | Link to this

Realist, are you a 12 year old? Do you like to waste your time bickering with a supposed kid? Go watch a game show re-run, it’s more productive.

Student, if you are for real, stop wasting your time riling up the old guys. Go make a fortune. You won’t do it here.

Student, most of us are here to get away from our wives, our jobs, our kids, our boredom, or all four, and you are upsetting the balance of kicking the dog when they get home and dreaming of being Donald Trump.

Cheers!

PS no notes tonite from cw, too tired. Well, here’s one…

I do hope that woman talks her dad out of getting a reverse mortgage. It can’t be a good idea to go deeply into debt with excessive fees in your later years. I would hope some family member would step in and take care of the situation. Good luck to them.

Way to go everyone, including me, not one of us could give her some decent advice? We’re pathetic or apathetic or lazy or all of the above. I’m picking we’re all apathetic, what do you think? Maybe we all just BS each other and nobody really knows anything.

By Realist

November 30, 2006 08:41 PM | Link to this

student:

I guess we agree on two things, you are very sorry.

You know playing with trolls is fun, I don’t why folks advise against it.

By student

November 30, 2006 11:07 PM | Link to this

It’s more fun playing with mentally retarded, aging rednecks. ;-)

Oops. “Mentally retarded” and “redneck” are redundant.

By If I don't say so..

December 1, 2006 10:46 AM | Link to this

Student sounds a lot like EasyAsABC bragging about non-existent sexual conquests or the desire to abuse young women. Also with the constant mocking of people who disagree with him as being poor and thus somehow less than human.

By Rich R

December 1, 2006 01:45 PM | Link to this

That was funny.

By student

December 1, 2006 07:37 PM | Link to this

To: “If I don’t say so”

The expressions you were reaching for were “If I dare say so…” and “If you don’t mind my saying so…” But since your reach exceeded your grasp, I suppose a compromise was in order :-)

If you will read the posts leading up to this point, you will see that it was Realist, not I, who became churlish. I guess in redneck culture there is something dignified and empowering about insulting someone half your age. His getting his butt kicked was his fault, not mine. Are you one of his wives?

By to student

December 1, 2006 08:10 PM | Link to this

student,

gotcha!

you geek, if you are a student and the age you try to come across, why is it you are sitting home on friday night and playing on your computer, when all of the really non-geek kid’s are at least out socializing and learning to interact in a society and with, gasp, people of the opposite sex.

oh well, i’m sure one of your kind will come over and keep you company as you pander your next move on dungeon and dragons.

geek on, student!

enjoy your friday night.

By Irene

December 5, 2006 01:51 PM | Link to this

I can’t be bothered with anything recently. It’s not important. More or less nothing noteworthy going on right now, but I don’t care. I’ve pretty much been doing nothing. Shrug.

By Goodnight(one version)

December 5, 2006 02:04 PM | Link to this

Sometimes I live in the country Sometimes I live in the town Sometimes I take a great notion To jump in the river and drown

Irene goodnight Irene goodnight Goodnight irene Goodnight irene I’ll see you in my dreams

Last saturday night I got married Me and my wife settled down Me and my wife parted Think I’ll take another walk downtown

Irene goodnight Irene goodnight Goodnight irene Goodnight irene I’ll see you in my dreams

I love irene God knows I do I’ll love her all my life If irene should ever leave me I’ll take morphine and die

Irene goodnight Irene goodnight Goodnight irene Goodnight irene I’ll see you in my dreams

Stop your rambling stop your gambling Stop staying out late at night Come home to your wife and family Sit by the fireside bright

Irene goodnight Irene goodnight Goodnight irene Goodnight irene I’ll see you in my dreams

Goodnight irene Goodnight irene I’ll see you in my dreams

By good newf for Rich R.

December 9, 2006 05:46 PM | Link to this

The world’s largest retail chain is teaming up with Ernest & Julio Gallo Winery to produce the wines at an affordable price, in the $1-$3 range.Wine connoisseurs may not be inclined to throw a bottle of Wal-Mart brand into their shopping carts, but “there is a market for inexpensive wine,” said Kathy Micken, professor of marketing at University of North Carolina She said: “But the right name is important.” Customer surveys were conducted to determine the most attractive name for the Wal-Mart wine brand. The top surveyed names in order of popularity were: 10. Chateau Traileur Parc 9. White Trashfindel 8. Big Red Gulp 7. World Championship Riesling 6. NASCARbernet 5. Chef Boyardeaux 4. Peanut Noir 3. I Can’t Believe It’s Not Vinegar! 2. Grape Expectations 1. Nasti Spumante The beauty of Wal-Mart wine is that it can be served with either white meat (Possum) or red meat (Squirrel. Enjoy Rich R.