By maxmoose03

November 17, 2006 03:12 PM | Link to this

The news is: there is no news.

The prayers of those without the resources, or more often the maturity, to commit to property ownership, have gone unanswered. There is no crash. Home prices fluctuate a few per cent, just like interest rates, foreclosure rates, or stock prices, but life goes on. People go to work, raise their kids, buy houses, sell houses. Over the long run, houses continue to double, whether it take 5 years, 10 years, 15 years or more — it hardly matters. The have nots will continue to thunder the gospel of that day’s ephemeral housing statistics when they appear negative.

If there’s any foot-note to this non-story, it’s the soaring rental market that is emerging in South Florida, turning many erstwhile “For Sale” signs into “For Rent” signs. This is probably a better strategy for long-term wealth acquisition, in any event.

By Rich R

November 17, 2006 04:11 PM | Link to this

Nobody really thinks that we are near the bottom, do we?

Not even close.

If you are holding and not covering your costs, I feel for you.

Waiting on new numbers here.

30% decline within 12 months, that’s my guess. With more to follow.

Sit tight Mike Fink, you’ll get your nice home at a good price; be patient.

Waiting for the numbers here….

By AverageJoe

November 17, 2006 04:22 PM | Link to this

Is there a place were the average person, with the average job, can afford the average home?

I guess not in FL?

By Renter

November 17, 2006 04:57 PM | Link to this

Call me crazy, but I’ve been looking around at rental rates and they don’t seem to be going up. I’m looking at communities north of PGA that are not apartment complexes, so maybe that’s the difference.

But with so many homes on the market for rent, and it seems that number is increasing every day, its pretty easy to get these desperate owners to bid against eachother and have them lower their price.

Am I wrong or am I just missing something?

By maxmoose03

November 17, 2006 06:31 PM | Link to this

WHOA — Hold on to your hats, everyone, Rich R is waiting for numbers!

As someone with an advanced degree in a mathematical field, I am sometimes bewildered at the fascination that statistics hold for the uninitiated and unsophisticated.

I don’t know what number Rich (an ironic sobriquet, under the circumstances) is waiting for. If it is 30 instead of 20, shall we abandon our homes and head for the hills? What if it is 40? OH, what weeping, what gnashing of teeth.

Life here is normal. Prices go up, prices go down, prices go up again. If some folks lose a home to foreclosure,despitetheir best efforts, they will not die for it. If they are able to hang on for a couple of decades with several properties, they are likely to do extremely well.

“Average” — here we go with the statistics again. I don’t know what average is.

I do know that years ago, American housewives, goaded on by Feminists, demanded to be liberated from a life of no commuting and no abusive workplaces. They got their wish. Soon the market was flooded with two-income families prepared to pay inordinate sums for homes close to their jobs, usually in urban areas. House prices obligingly rose until today, prices target two-incomes families, and a single homebuyer finds him or herself at a disadvantage in almost any popular area. Is this your real problem?

Renter - You are certainly not as crazy as “crazydem” (actually, I think he should change his handle to “dyslexicdem,” since he does not appear able to interpret who is saying what), in fact you are probably just seeing things from a different perspective from a broker.

If someone asks me to find them a livable one-bedroom apartment for $1,000 a month, I can’t do it anymore. I have to turn that business down on the spot.

I think I mentioned that my own tenant pays $1,800 a month annually for a 1 bedroom, and I am finding out I am the bargain of the building.

My jaw nearly hit the floor the other day when someone I know offered mr $4,000 a month seasonally for my 1 bedroom, if I would just put some furniture in it. To top it all off, he paid for dinner to make the offer.

I think the next time you have to sign a lease, Renter — not renew — you will know what you were missing.

By Another Renter

November 17, 2006 06:32 PM | Link to this

You’re not missing anything, bro. The rates are NOT going up.

By Another Renter

November 17, 2006 06:52 PM | Link to this

If someone asks me to find them a livable one-bedroom apartment for $1,000 a month, I can’t do it anymore. I have to turn that business down on the spot.

You need glasses, my friend.

By maxmoose03

November 17, 2006 07:00 PM | Link to this

You need to find out what you are talking about, my friend.

Suggest you take a B+ building such as Royal Palm Place (in Boca Raton), call them up saying you want a 1 BR apartment for $1000 a month.

Then come back here and report what they said after they stopped laughing.

By easy as stupid

November 17, 2006 10:57 PM | Link to this

other stupid comment from easy.

here is a reality check.

Florida Speculators “Gave Up” In October

The News Press reports from Florida. “Foreclosures in Lee County jumped sharply last month as speculators gave up on land for which they overpaid and homeowners failed to keep up with their payments. In October, 352 foreclosures were filed in circuit court, up 48.5 percent from the 237 filed in September. That’s almost three times as much as October 2005.”

“‘In my opinion this is the market bottoming out with defaults,’ said mortgage broker Jeff Tumbarello in Fort Myers. ‘A lot of the foreclosures right now are failed speculative ventures, homes that never got built, where they bought them assuming it would continue to appreciate.’”

“But prices for residential property peaked in December 2005 as the median price for a single-family home in the county hit an all-time high of $322,300. In September, the median price was down 18.9 percent at $261,400, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.”

“The price of lots has dropped even more, Tumbarello said, noting that ‘there are now lots under $20,000 in Lehigh Acres,’ where it was hard to find one for less than $50,000 at the peak of the market.”

“John McWilliams, a real estate broker with Coldwell Banker Preferred Properties, said it’s not just lots in Lehigh that are losing their value. ‘Sad to say, the consensus feels that due to the plethora of 100 percent financing for entry-level homes, we expect to see an increase in foreclosures over the next six to 12 months,’ he said.”

“The problem, he said, is that a lot of people bought homes with no money down and also financed the closing costs. As a result, they might owe $240,000 on a house originally valued at $230,000 that’s worth even less now.”

“As foreclosures mount, the auction business is getting ready for a repeat of its heyday in the early 1990s when large numbers of Florida condominiums went on the block as prices plunged, said Carl Carter of J.P. King Auction Co. King already is getting inquiries and has hired a specialist to handle the auctions company officials expect will occur. ‘We’re preparing for a whole new business,’ Carter said.”

The Palm Beach Post. “New foreclosure filings in Palm Beach County nearly doubled last month as homeowners struggled with declining home values, plunging sales and soaring inventory, a report released Thursday shows.”

“The number of new foreclosure filings in Palm Beach County leaped to 866 from 453 in October 2005, RealtyTrac said, a 91 percent jump. In Martin County, foreclosure filings more than doubled in a year. St. Lucie County foreclosure filings, meanwhile, rose 28 percent over the previous October.”

“‘We have such a dramatic inventory glut in Florida - and such a disparity between prices and incomes - that there’s more work to be done,’ said Michael D. Larson, an analyst in Jupiter. ‘I don’t expect foreclosure activity to cool, or pricing weakness to end, until at least 2008.’”

From TC Palm. “The foreclosure rate in Indian River County more than tripled from 32 homes entering some stage of foreclosure in October 2005, to 109 this month, according to RealtyTrac. The highest rate on the Treasure Coast continues to occur in St. Lucie County.”

“Merle Dimbath, Treasure Coast economist, said the numbers have yet to reach a peak. ‘Unfortunately, this is going to take awhile to run its course,’ Dimbath said. ‘This might be a combination of people who took out home equity lines or had lower interest rates and are now seeing those rates rise,’ Dimbath said. ‘But this isn’t unique to just the Treasure Coast, I suspect is going on in Broward and Miami-Dade.’”

“Don Santos, past president of the Treasure Coast Builders Association, said he wasn’t surprised at the numbers. ‘Basically these are investors who can’t afford their second or third mortgages,’ Santos said.”

By easy is toast

November 17, 2006 11:25 PM | Link to this

‘Coastal South Florida commercial property owners could get hit with massive property insurance price increases up to 603 percent in Broward County and 592 percent in Palm Beach County, while some homeowners along the coast could see their premiums more than double, under rate increases proposed Thursday by state-backed Citizens Property Insurance Corp.’

I GUESS I FINALLY GOT AN ANSWER TO EASY’S INSURANCE BILL.

By Michael Fink

November 18, 2006 05:03 AM | Link to this

S. FL is toast, not any one person. Unfortuantely, we all are going to live through these times down here, and it’s not pretty; nor going to be, for many years.

1BR for 1K a month? I think you should be able to find this; although I am not really sure because I don’t follow the apt market as much anymore (it was pretty much wiped out in Downtown WPB/PGA area during the boom years). I can definately find you a townhome/condo to rent in that price range though. Also, the higher you go, the crazier things get in the rental market. If you can afford 1500/mo, I know many 400K homes you can control for that price. If you can afford 2K a month, 650K becomes the new mark. And for 2500+/mo, you should be looking at million dollar properties.

Over the long run, houses continue to double, whether it take 5 years, 10 years, 15 years or more — it hardly matters.

Yes, housing will double again. I would guess about 15-20 years out, but that’s just a guess. Where your wrong, however, is that it most certainly DOES matter when this happens, and how we get there. If housing drops another 30-40% over the next few years, and then is up 100% from that number 10 years from then; your going to be in a world of hurt for almost a decade. Its awful to be “under” a home, you cannot move without brining a check to the table, you cannot extract equity (because you have none, as you grossly overpaid for the house), you tax base is set at the higher number; and, most importantly, your paying 2-3X as much (over rent) to control a depreciating asset! Its finanical suicide to buy now, assuming you believe that we are in the beginning of a multi-year correction.

Rent (high end anyway) reflects the price people are willing to pay to control an asset; inherently assuming no appreciation (because, as renters, they are not entitled to any appreciation of the asset).

By Jon

November 18, 2006 10:04 AM | Link to this

1BR/1Bath in Boynton at an apartment complex on Gateway for $929 a month.

By Steve

November 18, 2006 11:30 AM | Link to this

Yeah so with my job at Burger King I can get an adjustable rate mortgage with no down payment and flip the house instead of burgers for a change.

By X

November 18, 2006 06:51 PM | Link to this

Actually, Easy is toast in a way. He’s trying to sell his tract house right now for much more than it’s worth. He will make a profit no matter what but probably not as much as he wants.

By to rich r/mike fink

November 18, 2006 08:22 PM | Link to this

Hey Rich, What generation are you from? You’re probably a 60’s Flower Child. Why so much anger and resentment towards Florida? What happened to the Peace, Love, and Happiness?

For some reason, I can see you dancing around in Woodstock grabbing your nipples singing “all the leaves are brown and the skies are grey”….!

Your predictions of 30% or more depreciations on real estate is far fetched. I sure hope so.

Way too much ACID going on at the concert. There’s obvious residual effects left over.

Can you do your buddy Mike Fink a favor? By now, I’m sure Mike’s blood presurre is around 240/120. This rent to own ratio is taking a toll. Since you’re a pharmaceutical rep and NOT a Realtor, can you give him some samples of Valium to ease his distress and anxiety.

By maxmoose03

November 18, 2006 08:39 PM | Link to this

40%! 30%! 2 zillion per cent%!

Mr. Mike, do me a favor. Do a little intellectually honest research, then come back and tell us when the last time was that there was a sustained 40% drop in housing prices, in any major market in America. Folks here tend to cavalierly predict events that have never happened in American history.

At least you are not the guy who - I kid you not - reprinted an entire article on sales statistics for Lee County. I had to think for a minute to figure out where Lee County is.

I guess the interesting thing about these blogs is that the inmates run the asylum.

By Not Quite 40%

November 18, 2006 09:19 PM | Link to this

“For example, home prices in Houston, Texas, plummeted nearly 30 percent over a grisly five-year period in the late 1980s. The culprit in that debacle? A severe recession for Houston’s only big employer at the time, the oil industry”

By not even close

November 18, 2006 09:41 PM | Link to this

you bozo, you blew your point. you left in the part about the culprit. everyone knows about houston in the 80s, big deal, and it was also nowhere near 40%.

houston’s biggest employer laid off people huge back then, a no brainer, their little recession.

no comparison to here, that is why you are now labeled bozo, you know not how to debate.

palm beach county’s largest single employer is the school board, and if you think they are going to lay off even 5 people to make our housing go into recession, you are dumber than most of us already think you are.

not comparing apples to apples. go back to your drawing board.

By maxmoose03

November 18, 2006 09:41 PM | Link to this

Not quite 30% either.

By maxmoose03

November 18, 2006 09:58 PM | Link to this

“Not even close” makes a clearly rational argument, but I love the irony of situation: what caused Houston’s housing glut is exactly what causes our shortage: people NOT working (in our case retiring).

By houston not even close

November 18, 2006 10:20 PM | Link to this

the houston comparison really isn’t close to our situation, son.

Not Even Close does have your number. Not only do you need to go back to the drawing board, you might be researching for awhile in modern history, as Houston in the 80’s was a very unique situation, and maxmoose is right as well, as 30-40% is a really catastrophic event, equivalent to palm beach county having a bird flu epidemic or 3 or 4 cat five storms in one season. you’re dreaming buddy.

i read another post earlier, i think cw, the renters or the ones who really want housing to collapse here are the most desperate and ranting on these boards, that is on, not only that, they are now resorting to spewing flat out lies and crap statistics that are meaningless to make their points.

when paranoia is rampant, the time to buy is near….

By spike

November 18, 2006 10:55 PM | Link to this

So where are all the baby boomers that were supposed to be coming to FL? For the housing market to go down and stay down… all those boomers will have to find somewhere else to retire, right? Scripts and all the bio-med companies are moving here too. I really can’t see the market staying down for years… as long as the rates don’t go up anyway. I’m no expert though. I’m just a guy speculating that I’m not going to be too far under the house I bought last year. And if it does drop 20+ percent, it will rebound within a couple years again.

By TANC

November 18, 2006 11:09 PM | Link to this

Just because we’ve never had a 40% drop in prices doesn’t mean it can’t happen. We’ve also never had a 3 year sustained period of 30 to 35% or more increases per year in values in our history until the 2003 thru 2005 period and we’ve never had inventory levels as high as we do now. We’ve also never had so many folks upside down now on the mortgages on their homes and holding on to multiple properties draining their cash reserves and pushing them into foreclosure.

Point is we are in uncharted territory here. The fact that no sustained downturn in housing has ever occured without signficant unemployment and/or a recession tells me the market may be worse than it is. What will happen to this market if we do happen to head into a recession and we do start to experience significant levels of unemployment? A scenario like that may lead to 40% drops in prices. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen.

I for one, don’t believe it will happen as Florida still leads the nation in job growth an business is till humming along everywhere, but I can certainly see values staying flat as a “best case” scenario and down another 10% from these levelsa likely scenario.

Fixing the insurance problem will do much good for this market, and flat to declining prices will take care of the tax problem over time. Then, sanity wll return….

By to TANC

November 18, 2006 11:46 PM | Link to this

TANC,

Bullsh*t.

You say and I quote,

“We’ve also never had a 3 year sustained period of 30 to 35% or more increases per year in values in our history until the 2003 thru 2005 period and we’ve never had inventory levels as high as we do now. We’ve also never had so many folks upside down now on the mortgages on their homes and holding on to multiple properties draining their cash reserves and pushing them into foreclosure.”

That is BS. It has happened in recent history and more than once.

It has happened in the northeast in the 1980s and California in the 1970s. Times before that also, but let us stick to recent history.

They had huge runups and then level offs with people bitc$%ng the sky was falling after the fact after the big gain years, just like now.

The more things change, the more things stay the same.

People would not panic as much if they just took the time to study history as much as they study the recent episodes of Survivor Planet or whatever that Billy program is called, or studying their favorite moment of an old episode of any time waster tv show.

Know history and you will know all you need to know to make intelligent decisions.

why do you proposition 13 was created?

It all came back soon enough.

Relax everybody.

By Houston Crash

November 19, 2006 12:46 AM | Link to this

“tell us when the last time was that there was a sustained 40% drop in housing prices, in any major market in America.”

Hey DIPSHT, you asked if this ever happened in any major market. I didn’t compare it to Palm Beach or any other county for that matter. What difference does it make why it happened. It happened. If you didn’t want an answer don’t ask the fcking question. 30 or 40%, who cares at that point?

By maxmosoe03

November 19, 2006 10:12 AM | Link to this

I am glad that Houston Crash checked in, as the opinion of the mentally retarded should be considered as well.

I am not sure HC is addressing me specifically, as in his dim miasma of mentality it is not likely he can distinguish one contributor from another.

Nonetheless, had he been literate, HC would have known I was chiding those who routinely and authoritatively predict situations which have never happened before.

He would also know that I have already expressed my impatience with misleading or irrelevant statistics.

One headline in Indian River county trumpeted a tripling of foreclosures in the past year. As it turns out, they were talking about going from 32 houses to 109 in the entire county. While I am sympathetic to the families involved, the actual numbers are almost comical after the apocalyptic statistic.

No,this is not Houston in the 80’s. This is no cataclysm, this no force majeure. This is the type of situation that should leave someone of HC’s ilk asking: “Is that all ya got”?

Briefly restated for HC’s benefit: Learn some manners, you buffoon.

By Moses Tietlebaum

November 19, 2006 10:43 AM | Link to this

The price for rentals is RISING. Up 15% in the last year in the Palm Beach and Martin area. Although there are renatl properties available they are NOT available in suffcient numbers to accomodate the folks unable to buy AND the new residents arriving veryday. If you are thinking that there will be a massive dip on housing prices from here ,think again. The backlog of new homes is being reduced by large discounts to buyers by the builders to generate cash. If you are ever to get a good deal on anew home it is NOW. The Dec-March buying season is upon us. Those huge bargains will be gone along with the excess new home inventory. The value to homes will continue to rise over the next few years even if the average Floridian cant affored it. The baby boomers are now 60. Over the next 5 years the numbers heading south will swell further. My advice. Pick out a nice new home at the bargain prices being offered and buy it. In the next 90 days those bargains will be history.

By TANC

November 19, 2006 11:09 AM | Link to this

I stand corrected. Early Alzheimers must be kicking in.

We have had the huge run up in prices elsewhere in the country. I forget so easily. I lived in Southern California when values did just that, and oh yeah, I also forgot they fell 30% (more in some places) right after I left in the mid 90’s and I had friends upside down and desperate to get out of los angeles.

Bottom line is if you’re holding on for the long term you’re okay. My point was simply that the 40% drop was indeed possible and the fact that it’s never happened is not really relevant as things change.

By .

November 19, 2006 01:47 PM | Link to this

Moses/EasyABC/PBC OWNER/John…keep telling yourself that. You need to feel that there’s hope for you get the price you want for your cookie cutter house which is for sale right now at a price that is more than any cookie cutter house ever sold for in your cookie cutter community.

By Jimmy Johnson

November 19, 2006 02:52 PM | Link to this

Moses:

I quess you don’t want to read this: http://www.safehaven.com/article-6329.htm. It was written by a few professors at major universities.

Look when times got tough in my industry I changed jobs.

Maybe you should start a new business counseling debtors and get out of the real estate sales and rental business. That should be huge business.

40% decline no way, I say 50% - 70% in S. Florida. The wealthy will hold off, I know what my friends are up to and will do.Oh and by the way rentals are not increasing, they will be falling dramatically when most speculators realize they cannot sell and are forced to rent. This will actually start the crash. This rents are increasing is the same BS line the realtors said about running out of land, S. Americans buying, etc.

Karma. The lies will come around, be careful.

By maxmoose03

November 19, 2006 04:16 PM | Link to this

50% crash! 70% crash! IF you order RIGHT NOW, 7 zillion per cent crash!

LOL. I love how people with no experience in the real estate business pull numbers out of their behinds.

One thing that IS happening in the R/E biz is a refinance boom. Everyday, new money is being lent on these houses that are supposed to crash. I guess it’s those wacky appraisers, refusing to admit the houses are worth a third of what they are appraising them for. Maybe it’s those fun-loving underwriters, gleefully approving mortgage loans because they want their institutions to be stuck with worthless colateral. JJ, do you really think these people are all crazy?

Best post of the day goes to mighty MOE (Moses):

#1) Rents are rising. Right you are, Sir. OK, so I may be a little slow on the uptake sometimes, and I may be the last broker in PBC to realize the game is now hold and rent out, rather than try to sell. But I’ve got the idea now, and am shifting gears to concentrate on landlording.

Even better, a well-known developer there is offering new homes with a total down payment and closing cost of: one dollar. It gets better. They are offering broker incentives on top of regular commission, so that if I simply agree to put my name on the title (and pay the monthly note, of course), they will give me $12K cash for buying a $225K house. I will do it, if I can figure out what to do with the place afterwards.

By now it is dawning on some of the more naive folks here that brokers even make money by BUYING a house — not just riding shotgun over salespeople. Some authors, such as Robert Allen and Carleton Sheets, describe techniques for doing this if you are not a licensed real estate professional.

Anyway, Moe gets the daily double. Nice work.

By to max

November 19, 2006 05:19 PM | Link to this

Max old buddy,

you have some good points, but, my man, you start to lose some crediblity the first time you mention trash like carltoon sheets.

If he is your mentor, then please, be very careful. That rah rah leveraging crap is for the bit amateurs and brokers who think they go the know on everybody else, thing is, everybody else already knows when we all know.

throw the tapes away and get back to basics.

the tortoise and the har, i’ll say it til i turn blue in the face, the tortoise wins every time. i know, i’ve seen the movie.

By Steve

November 19, 2006 05:43 PM | Link to this

Man its no fun to be a house poor sucker. You guys make me laugh and smile. By the way, Florida did have a housing crash in the twenties and thirties.

By Steve

November 19, 2006 05:52 PM | Link to this

Here’s the URL to the Florida Realestate crash
www.stock-market-crash.net/florida.htm read it and educate yourselves.

By maxmoose03

November 19, 2006 06:47 PM | Link to this

“to max:” I don’t know what to say. I obviously do things differently from folks who just read a book or buy a taped course. I took all the State of Florida education for my R/E broker’s license and my mortgage broker’s license. I do everything by the book and ethically (not that the others don’t).

I am definitely not a Carleton booster — in fact, I had to change my phone number after receiving his course — I was hounded night and day with sales calls. On the other hand, I don’t think it’s fair to call the man “trash.” He, Allen and others offer products and services, which, although heavily promoted, are potentially useful to a great many people.

Not everyone has been through college and grad school, not everyone has professional licenses and experience — and I guess that’s what I was thinking when I wrote that. I was trying to be considerate. I was trying to say: “If these ideas are something that interest you, there are other ways to go about them besides being a broker.”

I don’t have a get-rich-quick philosophy. As a younger person, like many of my generation, I did not want to hear about money at all. However, in practical terms, if you look at a house and someone offers you 12k to buy their house with nothing down, you have to either accept the deal or not.

There are a lot of smart, honest people who work 6 months or more to earn 12K. I don’t want those people to feel they are shut out of business situations similar to the one I described, IF they are interested in finding them.

In a perfect world, everyone would get licensed, because this would ensure the highest degree of protection both for the licensees and the public at large. However, not everyone has the time, money, nor inclination to take the education and sit for the tests. In fact, I know a very bright, highly successful investor who failed the salesperson test several times.

So if I did wrong by mentioning Sheets, et al, mea culpa. The intentions were good. :-)

By maxmoose03

November 19, 2006 07:10 PM | Link to this

“to Max:” Just one more thing, if I may.

Speaking personally, sometimes I NEED that rah-rah, sometimes I need the pep-talk. It is the antidote to all the negativity you see in this blogs, to all the people whose mission in life is to convince you that you can never win, you are lost before you start, you will never be anything more than them.

They need to do what they do for obvious reasons; we need to keep our heads clear of their pollution. We need to remember there is no better country in the world to be in than the United States, no better county in the U.S. to live in than Palm Beach, and there is no time like the present.

By DD

November 19, 2006 09:18 PM | Link to this

News from area realtors on up swing of prices due to MLS listings not being relisted, lack of new housing, and sellers turning to renting property. NBC has a program of how to sell by owner on monday.

By easy is burnt toast

November 19, 2006 09:23 PM | Link to this

A 50% CUT, DAMN EASY I TOLD YOU! HA - HA - HA =)

“That means residents such as Mark and Kim Andersen, who locked in $506,400 when they signed a contract for their five-bedroom home in early 2005, are living just down the street from a nearly identical five-bedroom home that Lennar sold to another buyer for $250,000 in late October.”

By To Easy is burnt toast

November 19, 2006 09:36 PM | Link to this

That article you are quoting is sunday’s pb post. that dump they are talking about is martins crossing. unique case. major problems there. morons paid way too much for a crap location with major problems with land just outside their community walls.

i wouldn’t give you 100k for anything in that pit.

bad example chief.

By .

November 19, 2006 09:56 PM | Link to this

Easy is having a meltdown on the Auction blog entry. He thinks realtors are out to get him on this blog. Let’s just wish him luck in selling his tract house for WAY more than it’s worth. LMAO!!!

By Real Estate will drop by at least 20%

November 20, 2006 09:17 AM | Link to this

Here’s an article from Money magazine in 2002 about real estate horror stories. The biggest drops were around 20%:

http://money.cnn.com/2002/12/02/pf/yourhome/q_housingbusts/

What you should not though is that NONE of those markets experienced a run up like we had here in PB County. So those examples are only marginally helpful. But even if prices drop only 20%, it will take YEARS to get back to late 2005 levels.

By Rich R

November 20, 2006 09:54 AM | Link to this

During the past 5 years, values were skyrocketing at a pace at times in excess of 30% per year.

Then there were hurricanes and the insurance madness that went with it.

Now, in 2006, we have un-affordability for families, and the folks that bought at the peek are now upside down at a time when they their HELOC is maxed out. Too man crazy people were using their homes as an ATM to keep up with the Jones’s.

Anyone who thinks that the market can’t adjust downward as rapidly as it went up is dreaming.

Only time will tell, but I can say that things have spun so out of control and the insurance issues just keeps getting worse, buyers have evaporated. 28,000 homes for sale (not including the FSBO), <700 sold.

Absolutely huge inventory of unsold homes, developers playing games, nobody qualifying for their refi, and Citizens now wanting another 56% increase (100% total increase this year), with 600% increase for business.

I’d say 20% drop is not only very achievable, I would count on it. Every single person I know with homes on the market has reduced their price at least three times with no activity at all. NONE.

If I am wrong, then tell me where all the buyers are? It’s snowbird buying season. Just have to wait for the numbers to see who’s right.

By easyasabc

November 20, 2006 09:58 AM | Link to this

As i started to read all the new stories since last Friday, i think someone believes i am a bunch of people. Sorry, not any of the people that were mention. The unknown writer did not have anything better to do with their life at 2 am? I am glad to think i do keep you up with my real estate views that i write. Maybe it is that foreclosure that will come your way that keeps you up! Or are you losing your job?

On real estate news, WPB ranks 12th on forclosures list in the nation. If you look at the foreclosure median price of these properties, it is below our median price. Davis Weir reported that most forclosures never do go through the full foreclosure process.

If we are losing all this investment in property here, why do i see some many investors putting money into our skylines from Ft. Lauderdale to West Palm Beach? Count how many large construction cranes are going on. You would think if an area that was going to drop over 50%, investors would stay away. I think someone got angry and took out of me because they lost out on their hedge fund.

If prices did drop here 50%, it will drop 50% across the board from NY to Ca. Let me tell you this, it is not going to happen. Our economy is getting stronger, some of you are just getting poorer. I think we have many angry “have nots” out there or soon will be ones who went over their credit. Time for some of you to get back to your job before you lose it and worry of how to pay your next bill instead of my insight of the real estate market. I am “holding”, you are not.

The one and only……easyasabc

By .

November 20, 2006 10:21 AM | Link to this

LOLJohn!

I know it is you easyasabc. Your little tract house is nothing.

Once again, once again, you are wrong. I am not 12. I am 26 years old, passed my FL real estate license 9 months ago.

Even in this lousy market, I sold my first house 3 weeks ago. It listed at $249,000 and the buyer paid $228,500, not a bad commish for me for 6 months work!

I figure if I can sell two more by next April, I’ll be sitting pretty.

I’m going to rent for a litte while longer and sock away a few more hundred bucks and put very little down on a good house, bigger than your little tract house , John.

If you would follow what Carlton Sheets says, you would make a ton of money like I will. My real estate license taught me some, but my vcr tapes taught me more than you will ever know about real estate.

Once again John, you don’t know who you’re dealing with. I can get things done. Nobody is going to listen to John the easy man anymore. My knowledge of local real estate is far superior to you!

I know it’s you John, LOL LMAO!!

By .

November 20, 2006 01:46 PM | Link to this

I see another dot came in to carry out the work. That’s ok, there are several of us and only one John. LOL!

John comes back and announces he hasn’t been here since last Friday. Good to know since that “other poster” we were calling John was here on Saturday and Sunday so now that you’ve posted about not being here since Friday we know it’s not you! Really!

And now he’s throwing out names and real estate agencies AGAIN (like he did in his weekend posts) because he thinks the real estate world of Palm Beach County is obsessed with him. Kook.

John, you were a nasty bastard to lots of people on this blog. You put your real name out there and it was very easy to look up. It’s really just that simple. I suspect that anyone who meets you in real life isn’t seeking you afterwards. My money is on avoidance. You sad, trashy, old goon.

By Consigliere

November 20, 2006 03:14 PM | Link to this

Dot, your name and contact information was on a piece of paper that was slided across the table on Saturday night to the Godfather. The Godfather picked it up and read it and put it in his pocket. You are going to be sleeping with the fishes. The FAMILY instructed me to BURY YOU and I WILL.

By Steve

November 20, 2006 05:25 PM | Link to this

Right about now some homeowners are reading Easy’s filth and thinking, owe my god, this is our cheerleader?

By K

November 20, 2006 08:33 PM | Link to this

Hey John,

No one has to find this “John” guy since you’re right here, JOHN. Don’t make threats on people’s lives because that gets taken very seriously on the Internet. A federal offense, if you need to know.

It’s not cool what you’re doing. It’s one thing to be a jerk and call everyone a “have not” under your own real name but it’s another to slander people who have nothing to do with this. I’m sure Susan and Mike Berry wouldn’t appreciate you mentioning their name on here. Remember, IP’s are logged and every stupid post you pretended not to make will be attibuted to you.

By INTERNET MADAM

November 20, 2006 11:06 PM | Link to this

My Darling Rich,

I just got back from Vegas and started reading these past posts and I am so confused of what is going on here. Help me out of who is who and who is not.

Vegas is having more problems with selling real estate than Palm Beach.

Anyone want to share some good pie recipes for Thanksgiving with me?

By .

November 21, 2006 12:36 AM | Link to this

InternetMadam, you bring back memories of PBC OWNER/Easy’s crazy character acting from back in the summertime. Here’s one where he signs on as Ms. Palm Beach and uses his wife’s email address to post.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/palmbeach/realestate/entries/2006/06/23/openhousefor_suggestions.html#comment-520467

Oh, that crazy John! He never changes!

By N8tive

November 27, 2006 12:35 PM | Link to this

Is there any gray matter out there? What I see is hysteria and cheap shots on both sides of the aisle. We are dealing with the most basic supply and demand situation, and it needs some correction. The fundamentals - interest rates, job creation, in-migration - are still there and strong. What is not there are all the weekend investors who thought they were real-estate moguls. Sorry for them, but take your licks and learn a lesson.

Everyone complains about the high cost of housing in South Florida, but what it really is is a reality check that South Florida is now a major metropolitan area, and housing prices are going to catch up to NY, LA, SF and Chicago - again supply and demand. What has changed is that we all had a sense of false prosperity for many years based on relatively cheap housing - which enabled people to drive Beamers and dress in designer clothes and go out to $200 per head dinners. Now for the real reality check - people who work for a living should be driving Toyotas, not Mercedes, and shop at Wal Mart, not Saks. Quit acting like rich wannabes, and start acting like the middle class you are. That is how people in NY and California afford their housing (which by the way is still much higher than here). And they don’t complain about it, it is the way it is. And if you don’t like it, move to the midwest where prices are the way they used to be in SoFla.