By Shall We Start Again?

September 12, 2006 09:34 AM | Link to this

What ever happen to the days of freedom of speech? You talk about sensitivity, or was it job security for Jeff? Or was it when i mention the Cerabino photos? Gee, these Post guys can polk fun at others, but we can’t do it to them? Maybe some of you read yesterdays blogs, well, the Post hope so for their readership. Then again, Jeff hope you didn’t.

So Jeff writes about a big house on the island for sale with big rooms, beautiful garden and a pool that could hold all the owners landscapers and their relatives. Almost every house on the island has beautiful water views, unless you are looking out you multi-million dollar mansion and staring at those twin funnels across at Rivera Beach.

The realtors of those properties get a 10 to 12% commission if they sell. And most of the time, they do. The owner can wait for a buyer, look at what his daddy owns. No hurray to sell.

Jeff, if you like ideas for future real estate articles, why don’t you write articles that help the general buying & selling public in the area. Like…

Who are the best realtors and the worst compile by owners feedback.

Which top ten R.E. offices generated the most sales in the county?

What are the hottest property areas?

Why does the county appraisers office list recent home sales under condo sales?

I know it is Tuesday, and you have lawn duties at Frank Cerabino mansion, i just hope you don’t erase this blog also. You try real hard, and everyone notices it. Remember your company motto, “How Can We Help You?”…..by not blocking freedom of speech!

By A.P.

September 12, 2006 10:10 AM | Link to this

Since we are talking about the Palm Beach Post writers, I have several things I want to say. My biggest issue is with Linda Rawls. Linda Rawls campaign to destroy and undermine the real estate market is obvious. All her commentaries proclaim the inevitable collapse of the real estate market. I believe in writing on both sides of the story. When you read her articles, you sense an underlying bitterness,anger, and resentment toward the real estate boom. Im willing to bet that her resentment towards to boom has to deal with her not owning a part of the
American Dream. By far, Linda Rawls is the most bias and most INCOMPETENT writer Ive seen. Good Luck on your quest to destroy the real estate market and perhaps one day you will be able to afford a single family dwelling.

By Mike Fink

September 12, 2006 02:35 PM | Link to this

Cross post from another site:

I just zillowed the home I sold in Melbourne using a 10 year time frame. I know the home was purchased in 1985 for $68K. From 1985 to 2003, the house slowly and gradually increased in price to about $110K. That’s about a $30,000 increase in 18 years. Then, it doubles in price in the next two years. Why? Did average incomes in Melbourne double in those two years? No, it doesn’t add up.

By It makes sense

September 12, 2006 04:15 PM | Link to this

It makes sense because the Melbourne area was featured as one of the best places to live at. Several trade publications made the prices double in the area. Remember how Naples was the #1 area to move to? Now its the #1 or #2 most over priced property in the country. Your “old” home does not have the value it has comparing to the “newer” homes in Melbourne. Your old home might have a bigger lot compare to the newer homes. Land price going up all over this country. How many people lived in this country back in 1985 compare today? How many people are living in Melbourne now and back in 1985? How many more people living in Florida now than in 1985? What was the avg. salary back in 1985 compare today? Very simple to see the reason why property prices are on the rise in Florida or most part of this country.

By mg

September 12, 2006 05:25 PM | Link to this

over 8,000 people a day move to the U.S thats alot of people and more and more continue to want the American dream. Own a business, a house or at the very least have a good job. I don’t think alot of people understand that if the real estate market were to fall 40 or 50% it would be becuase the economy is going down the tubes and most people would be out of a job and unable to buy house. So all you people that are hoping for a large drop re, you just might be out of job if it happens.

By Mike Fink

September 12, 2006 08:04 PM | Link to this

This is not a comparison between 1985 and now. Its from 3 years ago to today. The price appreciated normally in the area since 1985 until 2003. What happened in 2003 that made the price start to grow at 30% per year? What changed?

Again, with the salaries. Don’t compare 1985 with today. Compare 2003 with today. The property apprecaited normally between 1985 and 2003. What happened 3-4 years ago that made the property vaule shoot up so much? Again, nothing I have ever seen in the research suggested a fundamental change in that time.

Again, property values on the rise is not the issue. Its when the rise is not 5-7% per year, but rather 20-40% per year that something has to have happened. What changed?

By mg

September 12, 2006 08:31 PM | Link to this

low interest rates, is what happened. With lower rates alot of first time buyers entered the market and bought homes that allowed the people that sold the home trade up to bigger homes. There was also the house flippers that bought raised the price and sold and so on. If you look at the census reports analysts thought our population would go to 15mm but we ended at 17mm. thats a little over 1000 people moving to fl. a day last year fl. had on of the highest net migration in the country.

By TH

September 12, 2006 08:53 PM | Link to this

From the looks of it 1000 people are moving out of So. FL a day……

By Mike Fink

September 12, 2006 11:16 PM | Link to this

low interest rates, is what happened.

Your right, but I would add a few things.

Low interest rates Creative lending systems (IO/Negative Am/etc) Lax lending standards The belief that RE is without risk

You put all them together; and you have a “perfect storm” in RE. You have people in loans they should never have been in (lax lending standards), with adjustments coming (teaser rates/etc), and way too many people buying into the market just because “it always goes up”.

Now with payments rising, values dropping, and lending standards tightening… It really is a “perfect storm” of RE problems.

Now, this does NOT only apply to PB. It is interesting here though, because we have experienced such an amazing run up in prices. We are of national interest (S. FL) along with a few other “highly speculative” areas (Las Vegas/Arizona).

Its going to be interesting to watch this play out. And unfortunately, likely very painful for us all.

By Roger Theriault, a REALTOR

September 13, 2006 11:11 PM | Link to this

I don’t think the interest rates did it by themselves. How do you explain the crazy prices in Santa Cruz, CA or Boston back in 1998 and 1999? Nobody could afford to move to those areas unless they were working for a dot-com and getting way overpaid plus options! There was a shortage of property compared to the demand… that part of the equation is the easiest, the only alternative for buyers is rent, tent, or go elsewhere.

Back then, however, South FL was cheaper to live in than New York, Dallas, Chicago, you name it… and cleaner air than Cleveland! What caused the boom to start? “Boomers” is one theory… as they got close to retirement or actually retired, they bought here… Long Islanders moving to Wellington. Option ARMS and interest only loand made it possible for the ones just a few years from retirement, reading in the Post and the NY Times about prices rising in Florida, to grab something quick without having to sell the $1M home until retirement, before a home in Florida gets too high. That’s one theory.

Thing is, we’re not dealing with cities on the micro level. As prices go up in one area, people can take their equity to another area. I think that’s helped a lot of folks buy homes in Palm Beach County, much to the detriment of the long term resident. But some of them are now benefiting, because they owned a $45,000 condo that now sells for $200,000… and the migration continues as the population grows…

For the most part, last year’s boom towns are not losing population on a net basis, it’s just changing. And the investors are now buying lots in the Tennessee mountains, betting on appreciation there… in the grand scheme of the world, this has been happening for thousands of years.

(and nobody thinks Manhattan should return to pre-colonial pricing, not even the Economist: http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=346918 )

By A note to Roger

September 14, 2006 12:42 PM | Link to this

All those cities you mention above that dealt with housing boom was a result of the dot.com industry. Employers paid their people high wages, which resulted in high home prices.

People who are moving into rural areas of “hicksville”, will soon find out that they will pay a large tax increase for the infrastructure that comes with the price of expansion.

When baby boomers move here in florida, prices again will take off. The three top states for baby boomers to retire too are florida, arizona and nevada based on AARP numbers.