By Steve

July 7, 2006 06:22 PM | Link to this

Impossible, this is South Florida. How can this happen? Real Estate here never goes down. What’s wrong with everybody? Weve got palm trees, don’t they know this?

By cmgr

July 8, 2006 08:33 AM | Link to this

No one ever said real estate is “going down.” Median closing price in PBC has risen month over month for every consecutive month since 1998 and shows no sign of letting up. Overall number of sales has dropped commensurate to recent rise in inventory which is due to a large temporary influx of investors in recent months/years, but these will weed themselves out and inventory should be back to normal by 1st quarter ‘07. Boom part-II should be back in business by then per CNN/Money Mag. forecast for resort/luxury markets.

By rca

July 8, 2006 09:08 AM | Link to this

palm beach county is not a resort area. only palm beach is. drive across the intercoastal. it is two different worlds. real estate is going down based on “specials.” no one wants to drop prices, because they dont want to lose their projected profits. too bad. what is so wrong in make a %100 profit, rather than a %150 profit in only 4 years! some people live in the same home for 20 years to make a %50 profit. some people dont gain any profit and simply walk out of their home. south florida keeps building condos and no one can buy. with gas going up again, fpl and insurance rising, food going up, this takes more people out of the housing market month to month. my place alone is over 1/3 empty. the owner is begging people to buy and has drop prices 20%. if i had buy in november, i would have lost 20% in value in six months. find me one luxury location outside of coastal boca and palm beach! yes,pga is nice.

By Becky Sue

July 8, 2006 11:18 AM | Link to this

I agree with RCA, so many of the older homes in ALL areas are tear-down in my view. The hype that everyone wants to live downtown WPB…, what luxury? Realtors largely whipped up everyone into a frenzy in buying those old, moldy houses close to the intercoastal. It would have been an opportunity to tear them down and begin over. Historic - another word for old and moldy.

By ron

July 8, 2006 11:48 PM | Link to this

wellington is a ghetto> Jupiter is real nice in Abacoa. RCA is right

By PBC OWNER

July 9, 2006 01:57 PM | Link to this

New home construction has slow down due to an overstock in new homes in the area and the high cost of building materials and/or lack of concrete and lumber. The labor cost has little affect because most labors are south americans, who work hard but earn low wages.

In the meantime, existing home prices will rise due to supply and demand and location. And commercial projects will keep on going for the future residents.

Palm Beach County is not a resort area? We are noted in the nation for our golf, fishing and scuba activities. Please check your resources, and say what you know, and know what you say.

Wellington is a ghetto? Someone has never been to a big city. Abacoa is nice, but travel to California, Hawaii and other locations. Time for you to travel and experience what is out there.

There are homes that need to be torn down due to structural problems, but lets save the historical neighborhoods and their homes. History began in Florida before all of you were born.

By rca

July 9, 2006 02:09 PM | Link to this

palm beach county is not a resort area. there are resort like areas, like the breakers and resort like activites. most of pbc is a ghetto. and the crime rate is always increasing. if you are not in a gated community, you have miles of dirt ditches, trailer homes and strip malls that are falling apart. a resort is a place where you can relax and have fun. even some of the golf course really need their grass cut from time to time. wellington smells like horse ** most of the time.

keep hope that prices will rise is a jock. what would you pay for, for a house off of military or riveria beach, away from the water? great, i want my house behind a ditch that caters to mosqitoes and rodents. the bubble is over, look at the front cover of the sun-sentinel today. foreclosure world in south florida. that means more debt and less people to buy homes 200% over price. i drive up and down 441 5 times a week. there is land. north of the acreage (former scripps site) there is land. and yes even between wellington and belle glade, there is land. once the rednecks leave the acreage, then we can break up these multiacre property and create more homes. greed took over the housing market and now the price must be paid. just like the 1920’s and the 1980’s in south florida. even in church, they make announcements of people leaving. =)

By rca

July 9, 2006 02:18 PM | Link to this

In addition , the peak delinquency period for a flipper caught in a slowdown would be 6 to 12 months ,rather than the typical 3 to 5 years for a owner occupied dwelling .

Last night on FLIP THAT HOUSE they had a young flipper on that purchase a 567K fixer upper in L.A. It was painful to watch . He had no money what-so-ever and he kept being turned down on additional fix up loan requests . The young flipper was the manager of a coffee/pastry house .. Now what lender would lend a young person this kind of money on a extreme fixer upper property with no reserves and a job like he had ? This kid didn’t even have the money for the first mortgage payments ,(which were $4,800.00 per month) .

The young flipper ended up borrowing money from his parents ,(30K ). The father flew out from back east and helped his young son for a week ,(thank God the father came because the roof would not of been done right ).

Anyway ,than the flipper ended up listing the property to high , the property set on the market and he ended up selling for 680k.(which was about 70K below his list price) .

Apparently the young flipper put all those hours in fixing up the house ,got alot of lates on his credit rating as a result ,and ended up breaking even after he paid his parents backs . I consider this young man one of the lucky ones .

Apparently this young man had made a quick 100k on a prior flip without doing anything ,so this is why he took on the challenge of the fixer upper with no money for repairs .The Lender gave him the money for the house but no lender would give him any money for the repairs of the house .

By Alan

July 9, 2006 02:42 PM | Link to this

rca….this story doesn’t make any sense. If this kid had made 100k on a prior deal…what happened to that money??? It seems he would have had that money to use on fixing it up & keeping the payments current.

By Steve

July 9, 2006 03:20 PM | Link to this

I just read that more than half of the home loans are less than 3 years old. That’s scary. Think about it.

By rca

July 9, 2006 03:52 PM | Link to this

he spent it, like most new home owners are doing. the savings rate is the lowest in 50 years. everyone is buying new toys, taking long trips and just wasting time. just think about placing half of money into a retirement fund and the other half as a down payment on the home that he really wants. one thing to keep in mind is the gas and electric bill. everyone wants a big home, but they are getting crushed by fpl. when people live in an affordable home, they appreciate the rest and relaxation of their fruits of labor. today, it is a rat race.

By Michael Fink

July 9, 2006 05:21 PM | Link to this

RCA,

I totally agree with one of your point from above. All these people saying that home prices “have” to keep climbing becuase “we are out of land”??

What/where in the heck are these people talking about? There is an empty lot across from the Publix in CityPlace, argubably the best/hottest neighborhood in WPB. How on earth is that anywhere near out of land? Even down by the intercostal, some of the homes on the water are crap and should have been torn down a long time ago. Out of land is when your tearing down a nice home to make room for an ever nicer home (ala Palm Beach).

I also agree, so a certain extent, that PBC is not a resort area. Who vacations in Riviera Beach? Or even PB Gardens for that matter? Yes, people definately vacation on PB Island, Singer Island, etc. But honestly, even here in CityPlace, I don’t think we see much “resort/vacation” traffic.

Of course this had to happen; anyone who understands math could have told you that this was coming (or major wage increases were on the way). When housing doubles in a few years, and wages remain stagnant; one or the other is going to give.

By Michael Fink

July 9, 2006 05:37 PM | Link to this

Intersting article. Don’t read it if your an investor looking to sell:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P149596.asp

By new yorker

July 9, 2006 07:22 PM | Link to this

If palm beach is full of criminals, high price property, high taxes, no resort activities, bugs and rats running around, terrible schools, bad drivers, terrible roads, bad retail stores, no high paying jobs, etc, etc. Then why are you all still living in palm beach? Who are all of you fooling? It sounds like the locals down in florida are a bunch of vultures, most likly flippers and realtors on this web site. Or you could be someone who has no money to buy and have to move away because you make low wages. Do the people with money a favor, take the next bus out of town and complain in another state.

By dg

July 10, 2006 08:42 AM | Link to this

i am not sure about crashes or corrections, but when you read the posts on the blogs here they seem to get very personal and attack. some of the information can not be true and not based in fact. i think several facts remain, housing has slowed down, rates are on the rise, and flipping has flopped.

housing sales have slowed, yes, but how much of the previous years sales were investors. i would argue in some cases over 50% in certain developments. could the lack of investors explain the slow down? maybe.

mortgage rates have been on the rise, but they are still very low, compared to historic rates. PBC has a huge 2nd home and retirement market, lots of these folks are not obtaining that large of a mortgage, or will not when the rates are higher.

The flipping and condo conversions are over for now. Inventories will correnct. Condo conversions and projects will get delayed or cancelled. This may take some time, but it will happen.

I think the fact remains way more people are moving here than leaving, rich baby boomers want to live in PBC, the rest of the world wants to be here too.

there is a lack of desirable land to build huge single family home developments, the cost of construction has shot up, and will continue to rise. land costs, labor costs, insurance costs, materials such as concrete and other build supplies have experienced huge shortages and price increases.

in the end, if you are living in your home, and plan on staying for awhile, i think things can and will work out.

By RetirementAreas

July 10, 2006 09:58 AM | Link to this

New retirees with money, believe it or not, do not see SoFl as the only option. As an example of the many areas competing for these affluent spenders see article in Sun. NY Times about Tenn.(available online- nytimes.com) part of article: “TWENTY-FIVE years ago, Tellico Lake in eastern Tennessee was little more than a trout stream trickling down from the Smoky Mountains. Now it is a 35-mile section of an inland waterway connecting the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico, formed by a dam built by the Tennessee Valley Authority. The dam was controversial at the time of its completion in 1979, but now it is credited with creating a retirement community real estate boom here, about 30 miles south of Knoxville, particularly in the last few years as Floridians are increasingly drawn north, some of them fearful of hurricanes.

Marie and Jim Smith moved from Boston to Cape Coral, Fla., where they lived for nine years. “We were tired of the hurricanes,” Mrs. Smith said. “After we got hit with Charley, we just looked at each other and said, ‘Did we retire just to board up the house every June 1?’ Our children wouldn’t visit us in September and October any more.”

Mrs. Smith said she began looking on the Internet for an alternative. As avid boaters, access to water was priority No. 1. She found a Web site about Tellico Lake and the couple came up to look, eventually buying a house in Rarity Bay, built by a local developer, Mike Ross. While they are not on the water, they can drive a golf cart to the marina where their boat is docked.” Many other beautiful areas agressively marketing affluent boomers, or Fl retirees with money who are increasingly looking at “halfback” as smart, attractive option. If we want this mkt for SoFl, our Govt needs to wake up to the reality of competition soon.

By dg

July 10, 2006 11:59 AM | Link to this

i am not talking in absolutes, by generally. i had a second home in naples, i would not really compare pbc - boca, palm beach, wellington, palm beach gardens, or jupiter to cape coral. i think it is a different crowd. that crowd, much like a person looking in port st. lucie, were prices are less, and cultural and dinning and entertainment are not as important would consider other places. even naples does not have the entertainment you have in s.fla.

By Rosemarye

July 13, 2006 07:49 AM | Link to this

I have lived in Palm Beach County since 1984. I totally understand where everyone is coming from when I read their comments. Recently I have been looking into moving to Arizona. If you want to find out how lucky your are to live in Florida, just start looking out of state for a home. In Arizona you are taxed for everything. Not just state tax, but your pension is taxed, health insurance is three times the cost, auto insurance is twice the cost. All income of any kind is taxed. I bought my latest house in PBG two years ago and my husband and I feel very lucky that we bought when we did. It can be a challenge sometimes when it comes to paying homeowners insurance and dealing with hurricanes, but insurance is still less expensive here in Florida.

By FL Renaissance

July 15, 2006 05:02 PM | Link to this

Finally an enlightened person! Your are absolutely correct Rosemary and the other well-heeled BOOMERS who will perform a similar anaysis will come to the same conclusion in droves. BOOMERS turn 62 in just 24 months! Florida is CHEAP versus other states. Watch all those current unsold NEW luxury houses (not old shacks) fill up with SMART people who have done their homework as you have done. It’s only the “head in the sand” crowd that will be left out!

By Mark

July 16, 2006 01:02 PM | Link to this

FL Renaissance YOU ARE PATHETIC Keep trying to sell the Brooklyn Bridge j**s - PBC has no class and no sophistication - sure it’s cheap - ITS A DUMP - I HOPE YOUR REAL ESTATE BUSINESS CRASHES AND BURNS DICKWAD

By FL Renaissance

July 16, 2006 10:26 PM | Link to this

Wow, you are quite eloquent articulate and very sophisticated Mark. However sorry to disappoint you but I am not in the real estate business. I just appreciate that Florida is finally undergoing a cultural renaissance away from the old woodframe (dumpy)shacks to luxury new gated communities where your ilk, the uneducated low wage earner/low asset redneck cannot afford qualify to purchase or even qualify on a simple rental application. Next time I pass your rusty pick-up or TransAm I’ll honk my Mercedes!

By Joanne

July 20, 2006 10:30 AM | Link to this

Attn: FL Renaissance

You are seriously delusional. I am one of the well heeled Boomers to which you refer. I left PBC - ran actually - back to the Jersey shore - which is where everyone from DE, PA and NJ is buying their luxury/second homes. People here LAUGH when you tell them you were in FL. It is common knowledge that FL is overall a low class, too hot, hurricane ridden, transcient, crime ridden, boring dump. The common perception is “maybe my PARENTS (in their 80’s) would move there - but not ME!”

FL Renaissance - you need to get over yourself, your self serving propaganda and your stupidity in thinking your posts will influence people to buy in a ridiculously overpriced market in the land of Hee Haw.

By RealEstateAgent

July 20, 2006 05:23 PM | Link to this

To the person who said, ‘Median closing price in PBC has risen month over month for every consecutive month since 1998’ …

You must know that during 1998 and before real estate in South Florida was in recession. Foreclosures abounded, especially in Condos. There were drastic reductions in prices, as much as 33%. Condos selling for $310000 in Palm Beach County in 1989 were fetching $225,000 in 1998. If that adjustment takes place again in 2007, the price reduction on a $1 Million condo could go as low as $666,000, maybe more.

Best buys right now are in the Central Pacific part of Costa Rica.

By Lisa

July 21, 2006 03:20 AM | Link to this

RE agent - these boards consist of two camps. By and large, the majority are in the reality camp. We all know that prices went way over value, that the emporer had no clothes, and that finally, the prices will be forced to drop to numbers that reflect the actual VALUE of the home, and not some ridiculous pie in the sky number. The other camp, while much smaller, consists of people who have money tied up in this market, or who are realtors or developers. They post here and try to convince people that this is a short term “correction” and they should run out and buy NOW before the prices go up again. For the most part, we all just laugh at them and wish we could be there when they go bankrupt out of greed. While it is still not being publicly stated in writing, everyone knows that the “correction” is really the beginning of a 3+ year price drop and the only markets that will not be affected are the very high end and the very low end. Everything else will continue to drop in price for years. “Investors” who weren’t smart enough to bail out by now, will eventually drop their poker face and sell at whatever they can get. In a year or two, all investors will be out for good and people will begin to assign correct prices to the homes. With any luck, homes will never again become a penny stock for greedy lowlife investors who think the general public is too stupid to understand the prices have no basis.

By NY Boomer

July 21, 2006 08:24 AM | Link to this

I visit older relatives here regularly, enjoy brief stays. Like other poster I prefer my own second home on Jersey Shore (Cape May). Do not know anyone who now wants to buy in Fl. Monthly winter rentals in warm areas around the world via Internet have become more appealing to retirees who can afford to do as they please. FL Renaissance, you should try some of the upper scale areas outside of FL. While I agree Fl has some appeal, I think if you spent some time in other areas you would understand why well-traveled, affluent boomers are not looking to buy in FL. Too many other options, too young mentally to settle for “Gods waiting room”