By rca

June 15, 2006 10:17 PM | Link to this

The good news: The housing market’s slowdown looks to be a soft landing rather than a crash.

i am just sick of it. when you lose money, it is a crash not a slowdown. majority of people cant afford housing with traditional loans. now everyone is house poor.

By

June 16, 2006 07:58 AM | Link to this

Actually, a crash would require at least a 20% decline in median sales prices. While transactions have ground almost to a halt, sales prices are still climbing. So a “crash” per se isn’t even on the horizon. And according to the Harvard study, it won’t be. Obviously in this bearish environment “flipping” is now out of the question. Most investors, regardless of original intention, are now vested in real estate for the long haul. Many may have to realign their financing in order to stay afloat. Fortunately it’s not too late, as money is still relatively dirt cheap.

By bubba

June 16, 2006 09:43 AM | Link to this

How could you say the prices of homes are still climbing? As reported in the Post by Linda Rawls on May 26, 2006 , the median price of homes in November, 2005 was 421,500. In April, 2006 the median price of homes was 386,500. That’s about an 8% drop in 5 months!

At this rate we will have a 20% decline by the end of the year. If another storm comes our way, it could be worse!

And it could take years for prices to back to where they were. There is a money.cnn.com article from 2002 which says when the housing markets in Houston, LA and Hartford markets crashed with about a 20% drop in value, it took those areas 7, 11, and 13 years for them to reach their values at the peak of the market.

In other words, the boom is over, prices will continue to drop (probably to around 20%), and there is a very real chance it could take years for us to get back to the November, 2005 price.

By rca

June 16, 2006 12:26 PM | Link to this

for those who dont see the crash (it is too late and it is right in front of you). most people who keep saying there is no bubble are either, not on the street or in real estate trying to sell water from hell. it keeps evaporating in front of you. i have a friend who live in a re-conversion. apts that became condos and are back to apts. 1/2 of the apts in his complex are empty and only 10% sold. they are begging for buyers. they have drop their price down 20%+ in six months and still no sells. there are new condo conversions all over the place. game over!

By Glad to be out of WPB

June 16, 2006 01:05 PM | Link to this

Hey RCA - I am interested in buying a condo, where is this condo complex of your friends you speak of???

Thanks.

By nic

June 16, 2006 01:27 PM | Link to this

I have been trying to sell my house for 4 months now….2 showings and no offers. The market is dead and those who are trying to convince you otherwise are either on drugs or are investors who are trying to convince others to buy. Realtors are chaning into other jobs, sellers are lowering prices and people from the north are not coming here anymore. That is the reality, period.!!

By PBC OWNER

June 16, 2006 02:36 PM | Link to this

There are two types of people out there, the “haves” and “have nots”. The “haves” are people who own property in Palm Beach County. They will get their money out of their property when they do sell. The “have nots” are the ones who don’t have property here or the money it takes to buy here. Everyone has to remember that this is Palm Beach ! The “have nots”, which are most likly are also “Baby Boomers” who want to retire here, have to spend that money that they made over the last 30 years. We are not greedy, the sellers just want what is fair. The news media can say anything they want about the housing market, it still takes money to buy into Plam Beach County.

And not us forget the Realtors that are out there also. If you were a serious buyer, BYPASS a realtor and save that commission money on updating a future home that you want to buy. FSBO is the way to go on getting a house these days. The title companies does all the paper work anyway on a closing. Realtors are uneducated, cut-throat, manipulated people. They can only prey on sellers who are in a financial mess or widows, to swindel a house away from them.

If you want to a buy house through those means, then most likly you come from the New York area and / or have no conscience to take advantage of people like that.

And if you want to offer low bids on houses due to hurricanes, please stay in those cold winters up north. We would not want to hear you complain about not having power for more than five minutes, let alone for five days.

The three things you need to know about buying in Plam Beach County is location, location, location ! You can get something cheaper in price up in Martin or St. Lucie counties, but they are decades behind us from infrastructure to jobs and entertainment. And the taxes are just as high up there as it is here. Sellers cannot control the taxes on a home in Plam Beach County. So, stop eatting out and going on those extra vacations and put some money away and make that spouse of yours happy in those “Golden” years. You will have to sacrafice to get a home here. Maybe the “Baby Boomers” had it going their way to long. Just face it, you will have to SPEND the money to live here in a nice home. And if you can’t afford a home with land, then buy a townhouse or a condo. You get what you pay for. Just remember this, as we talk, the prices are just keeping going up ! As they say “money talks, and you know what walks !”

If the buyers want to wait for the fall season, they will pay higher prices. Maybe then, the buyers will have to face the facts. The prices will keep on going up! For all the Sellers, be patient, the buyers will come to you.

By CM

June 16, 2006 02:44 PM | Link to this

All the great reasons for owning property in S.Florida are still there, don’t give up hope!

By Bubba

June 16, 2006 02:55 PM | Link to this

Hey PBC Owner: You couldn’t be more wrong about the prices going up. Take a look at my post earlier. As they say “Denial ain’t a river in Egypt!”

By MARTIN COUNTY LOVER

June 16, 2006 03:08 PM | Link to this

Hey, don’t rule out Martin County. Just 10 to 15 minutes north of Abacoa are absolutely beautiful communities being built and the prices are much less than comparable properties in Palm Beach County. Case in point is a new community being built overlooking the Port St. Lucie waterway - on the water - west of i-95 with home prices starting in the low 400s. So, get this, 15 minute drive further north, new construction on waterfront, for $400s? Where can you touch that in Palm Beach county? YOU CANNOT. You have CVS construction, great A-rated homes, and less traffic than you do in Palm Beach county. Plus, taxes (including gasoline taxes) are much less. Martin county is full of fed up former Palm Beach county home owners who decided to move where things are fresher, people are nicer, and politics are cleaner.

By PBC OWNER

June 16, 2006 03:10 PM | Link to this

Hey Bubba, are you “holding” or “not holding”? Sounds like you are one of those potential buyers from two years ago who did not buy then and have regrets now. Sounds like you are “WISHING” for prices to drop back to where they were when you were first looking to buy property. DREAMERS - like yourself, are really the ones in DENIAL.

By PBC OWNER 2

June 16, 2006 03:20 PM | Link to this

Thank you PBC Owner, you’ve hit it on the nose.

By Bubba

June 16, 2006 03:21 PM | Link to this

I actually moved here about a year ago. I decided to rent for a year while deciding what neighborhood to purchase in. I’m glad I did b/c the prices started dropping. Why buy now when rents are well under the cost of ownership, and prices are dropping? So lets hear you explain to everyone how prices are rising in light of the data over the past several months.

By NIC

June 16, 2006 03:56 PM | Link to this

PBC Owner…I dont necessarily disagree with you but your theory of “haves” and “have nots” is very snooty and the reason why I want to leave a place I was born, Palm Beach County. It USED to be a nice place until materialism (attitudes about haves and have nots) arrived along with the expense. The thing about the FSBO shows your ignorance…Wake up dude.

By barb

June 16, 2006 04:05 PM | Link to this

Treasure Coast homes among most overpriced in nation Story Tools Email this story | Print By NADIA GERGIS nadia.gergis@scripps.com June 16, 2006 Treasure Coast homes are among the most overvalued properties in the country, a nationwide economic study showed this week. A report by Ohio-based National City Corp. ranked the Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes Stuart, as the third most overvalued housing markets out of 317 metro areas in the nation. Vero Beach came in 26 on the list.

Advertisement St. Lucie/Martin’s first-quarter 2006 median home price of $240,800 was 77.4 percent higher than it should be, the report stated. Vero Beach’s price of $210,000 was 57 percent overvalued. “If you compare the real estate listings with the job postings there is a basic disparity between wages and what could support what homes were being sold for,” said Merle Dimbath, president of Dimbath Economics in Stuart. “A lot of national attention is being drawn to this issues in our area.”

Brad Hunter, who follows housing trends on the Treasure Coast and South Florida for Metrostudy’s South Florida division, had a different view.

“I find these kinds of rankings questionable,” Hunter said. “I think there will be some type of adjustment in the next 18 months because investors created an appearance of price appreciation which was then was reflected in the market.”

The coastal states of California and Florida continue to show the highest concentration of overvalued markets, accounting for 17 of the top 20 markets.

“It seems that over-valued markets in California and parts of New England are settling down, while those in Florida, Arizona and Oregon are still heating up,” said Richard DeKaser, chief economist of National City and author of the report.

Other overpriced housing markets in Florida include: West Palm Beach, inflated by 65.5 percent; Melbourne-Palm Bay by 54 percent; and Fort Lauderdale by 57.3 percent.

The survey’s collection of data used home prices, interest rates, household incomes, population densities and any historical premiums a metropolitan area has exhibited over time.

Inflated housing markets

Single-family homes in the following Florida cities were extremely overvalued in the first quarter of 2006.* The costliest properties were in California and Florida. Here’s how Florida ranked:

By PBC OWNER

June 16, 2006 04:17 PM | Link to this

The data is out there, and it is still saying that exisiting home prices are still going up! Even new home construction is rising due to labor and building costs. With new homes going up, existing home sales also rises. I still see developers building homes, condos and townhomes all over South Florida. I deal with the facts only, the MLS sold listings and the Property Appraisers office has the necessary data for the “educated” buyer to realize that prices are still going up, even for the last few months.

I understand how some people have to rent, but it is a better investment if you have the opportunity to buy and build up your equity instead of having rental receipts to throw out at the end of the year.

Hey Martin County, there are CBS single family homes on water within 15 minutes of downtown West Palm Beach in the $400,000 range. How long does it take you to go grocery stores or to a mall in Martin County ????? Do you also have city water/drainage supplied to you ???? How long does it take you to drive to jobs in Palm Beach or Broward Counties ???

By Mike

June 16, 2006 04:37 PM | Link to this

Saw on another Florida Newspaper (hint has word sun in it’s title), that rental vacancies for apartments offices etc are getting tight.

Any thoughts on how that ties in?

By bubba

June 16, 2006 04:44 PM | Link to this

PBC Owner: I’m not sure about your facts. If you are looking at year to year comparisons, you are right. Prices in April 06 are higher than April 05. But that data does not take into account the price decreases since November 05.

Another area of concern should be the growing supply of homes for sale. As everyone should know, an increasing supply will cause a drop in prices. Many sellers can’t wait it out b/c they purchased their home with an “exotic” mortgage, and they can’t afford the higher payments that are required a few years into the loan.

I’ll buy in another year or two, and the houses that were selling for 550k last year will be selling for 450k then. Not a bad profit on renting :)

By PBC OWNER

June 16, 2006 04:48 PM | Link to this

When there is a shortage of rentals, landlords can raise the rent to the point where rent will cost more than monthly mortgage payments. You need a good down payment to have lower mortgage payments. You need to save more money and spend less and do a little sacrifice in order to be a homeowner than a renter. If you can’t afford to buy and if you can’t afford to rent - then you can’t live here in South Florida. I tell it like it is, I try not offend or insult anyone - but to educate them to the facts.

By tim

June 16, 2006 04:51 PM | Link to this

how does one estimate that pbc housing is overvalued by 65%? overvalued must have a very distinct definition in “economic” terms. otherwise, what could the “overvalue” be based upon? in other words, a comparable community/county would have the same, available housing for approximately $.35 on the dollar for that which is paid in pbc.

By

June 16, 2006 05:02 PM | Link to this

I have a property for sale in northern Palm Beach County. Yes, it’s about impossible to get someone to look at it even though it’s priced about half of the price for the shoddy new construction downtown. Instead of declaring bankruptcy and giving it back to the bank I’ll just rent it.

Yesterday someone pointed out that we shouldn’t assume that someone needs to sell/is desperate to sell a property only because it is listed in MLS.

Supply and demand. I feel extremely fortunate to own this property. The rising rents will allow me to take it off market and keep it awhile until the ‘irrational hype’ finally wears off about the ‘housing bubble’ that is ‘about to burst’ or has already burst according to the Post.

By bubba

June 16, 2006 05:14 PM | Link to this

I’m currently renting a townhouse in Abacoa, and our rent is just over 1/2 of the cost of owning the same property if we were to buy it at what similar properties are listing for w/ a 20% downpayment, 30 year mort.

That’s why the rental market is tightening, its still a LOT cheaper to rent than to own. Prices for homes will continue to drop until the cost of ownerhsip approaches the cost of renting.

But with all those condos coming on line in WPB, and with so many investors trying to rent since they can’t sell, drops in sales prices will be a lot more dramatic than the increase in rent rates.

By Grass is never greener

June 16, 2006 05:24 PM | Link to this

PBC is correct. I live in South Carolina, but have owned an investment property in Jupiter since 1995. I have been reading the PB post online for the last year and hearing how everybody is complaining about the high taxes, insurance, and property values. The bottom line is that Florida real estate values were historically undervalued until they suddenly corrected from 2001 - 2005. That sudden rise has everybody frozen at the moment with nobody buying, but if you look at real estate on the east coast it’s about right. I just got back from Boston where my nephew is buying a run down small ranch for $375,000 with a big tax bill. Also,as far as the traffic. Have you driven in a major east coast city lately? It’s terrible. You used to be able to schedule around rush hour in Atlanta, now its jammed all day. The grass is never greener. By the way, if you move out of S. Florida you get hit with about 6% in income taxes. If it wasn’t for my job, I would still be there.

By HWOOD

June 16, 2006 05:34 PM | Link to this

I love it. All of this talk of inflated prices in coastal areas has made the interior part of the state red hot!! Places like Okeechobee, Sebring, Lake Wales, etc. are exploding with new growth with plenty of new housing in the 250-300K range, new shopping centers, malls, etc. That is where I would be looking….Palm Beach, and the Treasure Coast will only continue to be LESS affordable just on a slower pace than in the past 5 years.

By Yes Im a realtor

June 16, 2006 06:20 PM | Link to this

I watch the market closely and realized last year (5/2005) that the market was slowing. We had a house in PBG on the market for 5-6 months. It seems to me that everything has been slowing and the market has been building up inventory for over a year now. I think that popular media is just beginning to realize and report this. Unfortunately, since the media has just figured out that there has been a slow down, the current gloom and doom reports will only serve to perpetuate the problem. I do hope that they start publishing the positive info that may bring some confidence back into our market (like the new construction in Riviera Beach that opened 30 days ago and has sold 50 units). However, I am confident that the beauty and allure of PBC will persevere and that prices will remain steady through this period. Oh, and PBC OWNER, these statements,”Realtors are uneducated, cut-throat, manipulated people. They can only prey on sellers who are in a financial mess or widows, to swindel a house away from them,” does not apply to all realtors. And just so you all know, not all realtors are

By

June 16, 2006 06:30 PM | Link to this

PBC median values are rising year over year with no end in sight. You can mention gleefully that the median was $421k for one month last year and then fell, but you fail to mention that it had already spiked above and then dipped below $400k THREE! times before that point! Individual dips and spikes are meaningless. Overall the market year-over-year is rising with no end in sight. That was the conclusion of the Harvard study this blog is based on.

By Real-estate getting crushed

June 16, 2006 06:32 PM | Link to this

I LOVE HOW THE REALTORS ARE SO DESPERATE THEY COME HERE TO HYPE UP THE MARKET IN WHICH THEY ARE TRYING TO SELL A HOME. YOU CAN TELL BY THE POSTING WHO THEY ARE. LATEST NEWS I HAVE HEARD, IS THAT THERE ARE 5 HOUSES FOR SALE FOR EVERY ONE BUYER ON THE MARKET. INTEREST RATES GO UP, THEN INVENTORY OF HOUSES GO UP, THEN FINALLY THE LAST PROCESS IS FOR THESE HOUSES TO COME DOWN. AFTER A 100% PLUS JUMP IN HOMES THE LAST 5 YEARS, A 20% DROP DOES NOT MEAN MUCH. SO JUST WAIT AND THE PRICES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL HERE IN PALM BEACH COUNTY. THESE HOME OWNERS ARE STILL GREEDY, AND STILL TRYING TO GET A PRICE FOR THERE HOME IN THE PREVIOUS SELLERS MARKET! JUST LOW-BALL THERE OUTRAGEOUS ASKING PRICE. THEY DESERVE IT!! GO BUYERS MARKET, GO!!!!!

By

June 16, 2006 07:43 PM | Link to this

CALL ME

By Realtorslosetheirass

June 16, 2006 09:47 PM | Link to this

These appraiser skum bags have been ripping palm beach county home buyers for years now. Mostly run up by greedy New York home buyers who bought a house without seeing the property has made an impact. This houses are still not worth what they are asking. Just wait 2 years or so, and we will see where this market lies. The jobs are not here to pay for the price of this homes that are sometimes 30 years or more old, and are asking hundreds of thousands of dollars. The greed has come to the forefront, and they will see, what the future offers. Low-ball offers on homes by atleast 40% asking costs. They are not getting offers anyway! You have nothing to lose!

By rca

June 17, 2006 12:09 AM | Link to this

all this commentary and no one gets it.

anyone that earns $70,000 or less is priced out. that is over half the pop. in south florida. look around and ask people why they are staying her. at my job, we have lost 11 people out of 25 in one year. 10 have moved out of the area. they have cashed out. we are still down 4 people. forget recruiting out of state, unless it is california or the northeast. while every still consider $400,000 affordable, consider the taxes, insurance and bills. the bubble burst after wilma, because people questioned the reality of investing in an area that cost so much for so little salary.

look at who is working at the mall, mcdonalds and retail. the poor is moving out and there is no one to buy into any housing in south florida.

By Bea Ken

June 17, 2006 01:53 AM | Link to this

Homeowners: Prices are not going up now, but remember people from South America, New England and other cold states are coming to stay in Florida every year. For that reason only, the housing market will never crash in this beautiful state.

By Outsider

June 17, 2006 02:43 AM | Link to this

Have vacationed all over Fl for more than 30 yrs. Started looking to buy Condo on Beach around Pompano Area. (Currently own home in NYC, and 2nd on lake in NJ) Can afford taxes, ins, etc, not overly concerned with storms, but the way prices have been dropping just since my searches began (2/2 Condos on beach) is amazing. Also, the Harvard study admits there are pockets of the country that will have harder times than others. That report is also available on line and should be read in its entirety if used as reference.

Anyone who says they are not just is out of touch. If you cant find them I will provide listings I decided not to buy in Jan. that are down in some cases 50K today. Don’t know if it is Ins. mess, or what, but a lot of condos are not moving despite price drops. Don’t know why so many arguing otherwise, just go to listings on line or some open houses.

Speaking only for myself, (and only about 2/2 Condos) from what I have seen over 6 months makes it look better to wait to buy. PS I am writing this from Atlantic City on the Jersey Shore after a beautiful day on the beach, an evening in the casino, and a lovely breeze now off the ocean

By cashed out

June 17, 2006 08:03 AM | Link to this

sold my home in Dec, took the $$ and went to Tampa where speculation has occurred but the run up in prices was much less over the last few years. still some room to grow

so fla has a situation where buyers and sellers expectations are out of sync and homes are sitting. something will have to give, most likely pushed to either lower prices b/c of rising rates

By

June 17, 2006 08:19 AM | Link to this

“Condo” market is never as desirable, or as resilient as single family; neither is it as profitable long-term. While I admit, for “flipping” you can’t beat a condo deal. But the condo “flipping” phenomenon was fleeting and temporary. Besides, I’m not sure anyone could “flip” anything in a true balanced market, which is where we’re finally heading.

Anyway, the overall conlcusion of the Harvard study that “housing will emerge stronger than ever” was based on single family home prices which are tied into land values (the lots they sit on). Attached multifamily home values (including condos) aren’t really tied to anything but supply and demand. Sure, oversupply means less demand for condos right now. But even that will correct with 1,000 moving into Florida every day. Developers aren’t stupid. Greedy, yes. Stupid, no. They knew exactly what they were doing when they overbuilt to condo tower market. And many of them will achieve billionaire status by the time those empty condo buildings are finally sold out in the years to come. Will it take years? Of course. But with the money it took to build them so dirt cheap, that really doesn’t matter to these guys. With inflation at 5-6 percent, and their interest only loans at 5-6 percent: you have to realize the financing for those empty towers didn’t really cost them a thing. It’s all private money, most of it from Palm Beach, anyway.

Within ten years you won’t find one empty condo in PBC. And there will be more billionaires in Palm Beach than Trump can shake a stick at.

This truly is the greatest real estate boom in U.S. history.

And Palm Beach county is literally ground zero.

By

June 17, 2006 08:49 AM | Link to this

Why are so many looking at “listings” and “price reductions” in gauging the market? Individual listings and price reductions are meaningless. Median home values are based on sales closing numbers only.

NAR has reported actual single family home sales closing values have been rising year over year for every month since 1999 in Palm Beach County.

This appreciation curve has not flattened out yet and shows no sign of doing so.

May’s number will be out on the 25th of this month and, yes, it will be year-over-year higher than May ‘05.

Now, when you consider ‘05 was the hottest year in real estate history, that’s pretty amazing that we can be year-over-year even higher than that one full year later.

Those are the “true” numbers that matter. Not individuals on your block or in your condo lowering “asking” prices.

Asking prices do not mean a thing; any real estate professional will tell you that.

All that matters is what the homes are closing at.

Those numbers are up year-over-year.

Period.

By

June 17, 2006 09:53 AM | Link to this

True, but the true test will be whether or not November ‘06 beats ‘05 November median of $421k. If not, that’s where the “boom” starts to fizzle.

I will admit we do have eight months to get there, and if the last three months are any indication, then we probably will as price appreciation seem to be gaining a bit of momentum again after the early year lull.

It is obvious we’ll be back over $400k for the fourth time since ‘04 by end of summer, but where we go from there is anyone’s guess.

My theory is the Nov. numbers won’t hit ‘05’s $421k and that will fianlly flatten the boom’s seven year appreciation curve.

I could be wrong. Interest rates certainly won’t go above 7% by then, so there really is nothing but a category-5 or two standing in the way between PBC and the coveted $500k median benchmark NY and CA enjoy.

We’ll see.

Never bet against Palm Beach.

By Sales

June 17, 2006 10:36 AM | Link to this

I have been saving listings of properties I have been watching since Dec. 2005. Do my own research, urge others to do the same. Not even going to bother giving numbers, that seems to be a waste of time on this blog. I am thinking of saving some of the entrys on this site, as I have with listings. They will be really funny (sad ?) if the RE mkt continues the way it is. Caveat Emptor- eternally relevant wisdom.

By Seller

June 17, 2006 10:52 AM | Link to this

Anyone know where the 168,000 people who moved to Fl went ?

I guess my buyer must be in the coming 197,000 of 2006. Or the 365,000 of 2007. By the way are enough dying or moving out to keep us from drowning in all these bodies fighting to get here ?

By

June 17, 2006 12:17 PM | Link to this

why do people only look at listing and asking prices? b/c that is the most accurate reflection of the market at this moment. not what it was 12 months ago. ask anyone trying to sell their investment with negative cash flow every month or the family whose already moved who cant sell, or those waiting to move. they’ll tell you YOY% does nothing for them as they see NOTHING IS SELLING unless you reduce price or have a unique/especially desirable property

By What matters

June 17, 2006 12:35 PM | Link to this

What matters are total number sold. The “cream” is now selling because buyers have so much to choose from and leverage for “perks”. This skews median upward. Please stop this mantra of “huge number of listings mean nothing”. You guys just enable politicos to ignore problems with Ins. and Tax structure middle class is finding more onerous every year and trying to get away from.. I don’t have answers but until enough people get on our “leaders” we will get no relief. Home owners know what is happening and look at some of the postings on these sites as pure fantasy.

By

June 17, 2006 01:02 PM | Link to this

Median prices cannot be skewed upwards; which is why NAR uses “median” and not “average” sold prices. Median prices are still rising because closing prices are still rising. And while the stock market remains in the toilet, and interest rates remain ridiculously low, they will probably just keep on rising. It is not easy to stop a freight train like home values. Only catastrophic economic events (recession, 10%+ unemployment, etc.) have been able to accomplish this in the past. Not even five hurricanes in a row have had the least effect. That should tell us something.

By rca

June 17, 2006 02:20 PM | Link to this

can all these billions work at mcdonalds since no one else will be able to live here. and where is all of the buyers. i brought the paper today and there are 100’s of places for sell. if one house sales for 500,000 in a month, then the median will be what? stop the shell game and pyramid scams. i ask people all of the time, will you invest in a 250,000 home in carol city, sistrunk (fort lauderdale) or riveria beach west of us 1? this is when the housing market falls down. anddddd, my friend’s reconversion (apt, condo and back to apt is offering him a 6 month or one year lease, after the original conversion in nov, 2005. they are losing 40 to 50 families a month and have only sold about 30 out of 300+ condos. yes, in palm beach county! once again, it is always about the wealthy. many different people move to florida and most earn under 70,000 a year. of course other hurricane (cat 5) and everyone will be buying insurance under citizens. and now the govt. says that less taxes will come in over the course of the next few years. guess what, higher taxes. those who move are moving out of the state because of homestead. everyone is like a deer looking at head lights, until you get hit, you dont know what is going on.

By

June 17, 2006 07:46 PM | Link to this

It’s not about the wealthy. Check realtor.com for south fla zip codes- there are literally tens of thousands of homes for sale below $200k.

We all can’t start out in a $900k mansion on the intracoastal.

Start small, fix-up, sell, fix-up, sell, move up, move on.

It’s not easy but it can be done. Just not as easy as it used to be.

But nothing is.

By median

June 17, 2006 09:04 PM | Link to this

median hieght of a pro basketball team rather high because of the “population” involved (most very tall). In a market where only very wealthly are buying high end homes, that “population” (mostly very expensive homes) will also have a rather high median.

By rca

June 17, 2006 09:30 PM | Link to this

thousands? no one is asking for a mansion on the intercoastal. you said it best, most people can just fix them up sell, move up and move on. other flip flopper.

By

June 18, 2006 02:24 PM | Link to this

I guess we really don’t understand what a “median” is then. The median price means out of all homes sold, 1/2 sold for less than that median price.

That’s an awful lot of homes selling for less than 300-something thousand.

Especially when you consider houses are routinely selling for between 25-50 million dollars in Palm Beach every week.

Now do you see how there can be so many “bargains” out there for the taking?

It may take work. It may take living in a not-so-nice neighborhood at first. But more than anything else it takes a positive attitude. And that is something that seems to be seriously lacking in the posters on these blogs. I do see hundreds and hundreds of compaints about prices.

It really doesn’t matter where you start out at on the ladder. If you’re moving up then you will eventually reach the top.

I don’t want to sound like a Tony Robbins cassette tape, but give me a break. No one ever became sucessful by sitting back and complaining about a market being “overpriced.”

If it’s a seller’s market then buyers are everywhere: take advantage. If it’s a buyer’s market then sellers are everywhere: take advantage.

Do something, anything, but complain about prices. Believe it or not that kind of prevailing attitude only drives prices higher. By broadcasting how expensive something is, you are really only adding to it’s exclusivisity. Why do you think so many of these bloggers are posting from other cities and countries throughout the world? They are obsessed with Palm Beach real estate; as are we all.

That’s why it’s so expensive, and we’re only making matters worse.

Just roll up your sleeves and get dirty.

Enjoy.

By Mike Fink

June 18, 2006 02:49 PM | Link to this

People are not obsessed with PB because its expensive real estate. Other places are pricier (NYC, San Fran, etc) and not nearly the “topic” of national discussion like South Fl real estate.

People talk about our real estate because our market is crazy. We have doubled our home price in 4 years, people who one property here are singing the prasises; those who don’t are kicking themselves.

Any investment that earn 100% ROR in 4 years is going to be a hot topic of discussion. Most people don’t care at all about the “price”, if they did everyone would be talking about 5th Ave and Beverly Hills. Palm Beach (island) is not even mentioned by most people when they talk about So. Fl real estate; its WPB, Ft Lauderdale, Mimai, etc.

By Jim McLane

June 18, 2006 08:56 PM | Link to this

I believe you are right regarding the soft landing for real estate. Yes you will see some bargains out there as some people do have to dump their properties but many who have owned them for some time can afford to hold on to them and rent them.

People forget one thing regarding falling prices. The price of new construction has soared and used homes and condos in better locations will become a great deal. I feel there are many baby boomers still willing to come to Florida. They will be wealthier customers, as Florida is no longer an inexpensive place to retire.

What needs to be done is something regarding tax transportability. To many people are locked into their homes so we are relying on out of state buyers to purchase homes.

Jim McLane Jupiter 1 Realty www.JupiterHomeSeller.com

By

June 19, 2006 10:07 AM | Link to this

Was curious about the statement : “Especially when you consider houses are routinely selling for between 25-50 million dollars in Palm Beach every week”. On the 17 pages of 2006 property sales I checked the highest 2 were 8 million, both by School Board of Palm Beach County from seller RiverCorp USA. Shouldn’t all those 25-30 million dollar sales show up somewhere ?

By

June 20, 2006 07:06 AM | Link to this

Would like to extend an invitation to those who moved here last year following a buck and those who can’t take it anymore to please head north on I-95 to the place where from thou came. Tell your friends how bad/expensive/overrated/greedy/ speculative it is down here so they won’t move here either. Maybe that way we can get some peace and quiet down here like it used to be. Thank you.

By PBC OWNER

June 20, 2006 03:01 PM | Link to this

I can see that Jim, the realtor from jupiter home seller, has the same knowledgable information of the same issues that i said earlier. The sellers will have their buyer sooner or later. There is no panic here, unless you were a “Flipper” and took out a short term interest loan. And everyone knows the fees you will have to pay on a foreclosure if you buy it. The banks will wait for a nice investment on those houses when they want to sell them.

The baby boomers have the money and will be heading down here. They are not the ones who are “wishing” about prices dropping. Those are your “dreamers”, who will never buy, also known as the “have nots”. What they need to do is to invest into low cost property, and work their way up. You can’t start out as a first time buyer looking at $500,000 + homes.

And yes, it will take the State of Florida to do something for locals to move up in the local housing market and hold onto their existing tax base. Press your local politician on this issue.

And i am sorry if some of you think that Florida is getting crowded. People are moving here to stay and have a home here. And the buyers are coming in from other directions besides I-95. We have buyers from California, South America and Europe grabbing up homes. Wait until you see the exisitng home prices that are coming here for the fall season ! This will be based on rising cost of new home construction, summer sales, median home price index and the three most important elements: LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION ! And it won’t matter about the hurricane season either. Please note the property values in New Orleans these days.

And one should not combine prices of single family residences with condos and townhomes. We are talking about apples and oranges with prices and structures. A house buyer is looking at houses, a condo buyer is looking at condos and a townhome buyer is looking at townhomes.

And for all you home sellers, Realtors will only show homes with a 6% or 7% commission for a sale. That is a new trend down here in South Florida. The best buys are with FSBO sellers that i can tell these days. Let the title company do all the work for you at the closing.

Remember, this is “PALM BEACH BABY”, as someone said earlier, “GROUND ZERO” for the real estate industry. And there is plenty of room to go up in prices. Please note home prices in the Northeast and California. This could be the last season for bargins in this region. If you “have” the money, buy now or pay more later. If you are a “have not”, i hope someday you will have a home for yourself and your family. I just don’t think it will be here in South Florida.

By Michael Fink

June 20, 2006 06:06 PM | Link to this

PBC Owner,

What your saying just makes no sense. Lets say I don’t buy this year. I am making right around 2X the median income in PB county (single) as does my girlfriend; and we do not feel we are in a position to buy a place for 300K+. So, prices keep going up, salaries stay stagnant, and I am priced out of So Fl (as you mentioned above).

Where are you going to get your professional workforce? Do you think that So. Fl is going to become one huge retirement community? I guess it is a possibility; but all those waitiers, teachers, police officers, etc that you have come to rely on; what about them? They are going to be closed out of the market forever?

The northease and CA have the salaries; everyone knows most jobs pay double (ok, that might be an overstatments, but they certianly much more) in NYC what they would most anywhere else because of the expense of living there.

Also, the idea of people being able to move and keep their tax base is awful, imho. If you do that; you have forever locked those people into a tax base; and make the new buyers subsidize those who have been here for 10 years. That’s not fair, and its just wrong. What needs to happen is for the govt to ajust the millage rate to reflect the home prices. Homes have doubled in value in the last 4 years; has the millage rate halved in So Fl?

Govt needs to not tax as a percentage of home price. What needs to happen is something like this:

Your local govt comes out every year and says we need XXXX dollars to operate. This number is public so that you really UNDERSTAND how much taxes are going up. By not taxing equally, most people do not care how much taxes go up, they are already locked in.

Take the number local govt needs to operate and divide it by the total CURRENT property value in the state/county/city. That’s the new millage rate.

There is NO REASON for the tax lock in; we just have to have our politicians be responsible. If housing triples in one year, and govt does not need more money, the millage would be 1/3rd its normal value and everyone would have the same tax they did last year. Its SO SIMPLE; its fair; and it holds govt accountable for budget increases. You don’t think that someone would have said something if your govt budget went from 100mil to 140 mil last year? Well, that’s exactly what is happening; its just those who are in last who pick up the bill.

By PBC OWNER

June 20, 2006 10:19 PM | Link to this

Mr. Fink and to all……

If you don’t buy this summer, then you will be looking from the outside. Did you see how much St. Lucie property went up ???? And that is St. Lucie, without the infrastructure, the jobs and other needs that Palm Beach and Broward county already has. What do you think the future taxes will be for those people in St. Lucie or Martin County when their local govt. decides what they might need for their growing population ? They will need more schools, police, firefighters, roads, bridges, traffic lights, drainage, water lines and so many other elements to maintain their towns. Tell me if it will be cheap to live there within two years.

Yes, it is sad that many police, nurses, firefighters and teachers won’t be able to afford houses here. With the price of homes at this time, the income to maintain a house here in Palm Beach County will be $85,000 per household. But we do have many lawyers, doctors, insurance big wigs who are buying into the area. And the “baby boomers” are just months away to retire here also. Remember, they had jobs for the last 30 years, and time for them to spend there savings.

You can also blame Gov. Bush and the rest of the politicans in this state that made Florida only a service and tourism industry. We did have many corporate companies, that had the high paying white collar jobs. But the politicians did not want them to stay by giving them tax incentives.

I think the best way to have a fair tax rate is to have our politicans look at the California tax rate on homes. It would be based on type of structure, size, the age, the add ons it has and the location. I would grant a low tax standard for Florida born residents, and especially for our police, firefighters, nurses, teachers, so they can stay here. Our politicians can talk their heads off about reduce taxes, but it happens only if they get off the pot and do it !

By the way, take a look at the Palm Beach County tax record. Look how many ocean front condo owners alone are not paying taxes for the last three years in this county. We have lots of RICH people here not paying their taxes. To bad the Palm Beach Post does not have a story on that alone.

I don’t think it is fair to tax the residents here who have been here and had pay their fair share of taxes in the past, to pick up the tax bill of the new residents and their new communities. I know the developers will ease out of their responisbilities for helping out to incorporate an infrastructure to new areas. Because the politicians let them and they are in their pockets.

If you want to make a difference, then vote these existing politicians out of office and get someone who knows what is fair, is honorable, and know how to get the job done !

By LOL @ PBC OWNER

June 20, 2006 11:19 PM | Link to this

First of all St. Lucie went up on speculation while everything else went up so to say Palm Beach County is going to follow St. Lucie is ABSURD.

Realtors will only show homes with a 6-7% interest rate? You’re either on drugs or a realtor trying to influence desperate sellers.

Just because you paid taxes in the past doesn’t mean you’re entitled to be subsidized by the people who move in. That’s like expecting your income taxes to be capped and letting younger workers pick up the tab. Sorry, but the coffers get reset every year. New residents are crucial to keeping property values rising. Why would you want to put people off? You just want to trade overpriced houses with the other residents because you want something nicer than what you have now but it’s “too expensive” with the taxes an all that. It’s just so shortsighted and selfish.

People are not going to be priced out forever come the end of the summer. People would be smart to wait until early 07 to buy a place. We’re at the very beginning of major price reductions. When most of the homes in the past few years were bought as investments, you should be nervous for the market.

By the way, you really come off like a scummy salesman.

By .

June 21, 2006 05:12 AM | Link to this

Remember, rents are still out of line with TRADITIONAL mortage payments. That’s gotta get corrected and rents are not going to double, that’s for sure.

By PBC OWNER

June 21, 2006 11:08 AM | Link to this

Sorry, i am not a salesman. In fact, i have been telling sellers & buyes that the prices will be going up based on several data sources. Please read my earlier notes. But, it sounds like you are a “have not”, without property, without money, and from your remark about me… without class !

Dream on about the prices getting reduce, YOU WILL NEVER BUY with your attitude ! It sounds like you had your regrets in the past on not buying property. Are you the one earlier who said that you would offer 40% less of the asking price ?

We all know your type and where you come from. Take a tip, get yourself EDUCATED in the South Florida real estate market, and go out and make some money to buy a house…any house, before it is to late for you to own property here. Or pay rent, at least you will make landlords happy in the area. They would take your money as just as easy as a home seller would.

By LOL @ PBC

June 21, 2006 04:04 PM | Link to this

My remark about you was classless? Not really. It implies that YOU might not have any class and that’s what you’re upset about. You’re also poor with spelling and grammar. That’s not too “classy” either. (God, I hate that word.)

Not only are you wrong about the markets, you’re totally wrong in your guess about who I am. I am relatively young person worth 7 figures liquid, and I have not bought a house yet. No, I am not the one who said to offer 40% less than asking.

I have gotten myself educated enough to know that real estate cycles and that the cost of renting doesn’t stay out of line with the cost of buying forever. If you think that after rapid triple digit price gains fueled by speculation and loose lending with no increase in income, that rents will double and triple, you are deluded beyond hope. South Florida has busted before and market conditions are exactly right for that to happen again.

Palm Beach is nice enough but the reason it never got as pricey as California (and never will) is because the weather just isn’t as good. People don’t enjoy the sweatbox summers and the smell of stagnant, sulfur water. No one with money stays for that. I certainly don’t. There’s no elevation and it’s hard to build on swampland. You can build a million stripmalls and gated communities with cookie cutter homes but you’ll never change the weather and the topography. Do not compare with NY and CA.

“Buy a house, any house before it is too late to own propery here” you said. LOL! Fear mongering much? Go plug Jupiter in the the MLS and see how many single family houses there are under 300k. No, wait, I’ll do it for you: http://realtor.com/FindHome/HomeListings.asp?frm=bymap&nearbyZp=&lid=Enter+MLS+ID&pgnum=1&ss_aywr=&optInCheckbox=&st=FL&mls=xmls&lnksrc=&mnbed=0&js=on&mnsqft=0&fid=so&vtsort=&poe=realtor&mnprice=0&ct=jupiter&zp=&primaryZp=&mxprice=300000&typ=1&exft=0&exft=0&exft=0&exft=0&mnbath=0&areaid=17848 That’s over 3200 results, you fool. There will be even more come the fall because inventory is rising. Rising inventory = falling prices. It’s rising because it’s not being bought. The lower sales volume proves that fact.

Sure, my renting makes certain landlords happy: the ones who bought their properties over 4 years ago. I’m happy to rent because it’s so incredibly cheap. I’ll buy later but I’m not going to catch a falling knife, even if I can afford to.

By Michael Fink

June 23, 2006 07:15 AM | Link to this

I agree with the poster above; until rents are more in line with housing prices there is no reason to buy in this market.

I am renting a 280K condo (its on the market; big suprise) for under 1500 bucks a month. The condo fees/morgage and insurance to own this property would probably come close to doubling my expenses. And if the appreciation dips, or even just reamins flat for the next few years; I am much better off to continue renting.

Intelligent people will not buy a house in a market like this unless they have some overwhelming reason to do so. Why buy; I am basically having my payment subsidized by the owner of my condo right now. I live here for 1/2 of what I should pay, and he picks up the difference.

This disparity cannot contiune; and it one of the first signs to me that the market is in serious trouble. Why can’t my place rent for enough to cover the costs? Because nobody in thier right mind is going to pay 2500 bucks a month for a 1/1 in Cityplace. The market will not support it; and, frankly, until it does, IMHO, housing is in trouble and is overpriced.

Thx.

By Jupiter

June 23, 2006 11:17 AM | Link to this

Just a comment, I noticed that the home across from me sold for over $250K and is now back on the market. This home is over 30 years old. Maybe 1000 square feet in the older run down area of Jupiter. Might I add that every morning you have a lovely view of 50 to 100 men standing on road side soliciting work. Who would buy this home and pay a mortgage over $2000 a month when you can look in the paper today find a rental in a nicer gated community for this price? Young familes are faced with either buying in a run down area or renting in gated neighborhood with swimming pools, club houses and tennis courts. Why buy?

By

June 24, 2006 07:34 PM | Link to this

Its called Pride of Ownership. that homeowner will get his investment back when and if he decides to sell. That renter will have nothing but a brokedown swimming pool, locked clubhouse, and tennis with no net. After all the money given to the landlord they end up with nothing. If you say the avg. person cant afford a place to live for 250,000. There is no way they can afford to rent and save either.