By

June 13, 2006 11:45 AM | Link to this

Comparing median home values with wages for a luxury/resort market such as Florida, or California, is useless.

This is why statistics such as the one mentioned in this blog never make sense.

There is a vast influx of external money which pours into resort markets by retirees/vacationers from other regions which artificially inflates markets that would otherwise seek equilibrium between these two standard economic indicators (wages - home prices).

The same illogical results could be achieved by comparing local wages in Florida to Florida hotel room rates.

By that logic, Florida hotel room rates have always been vastly overpriced. But that doesn’t stop vacationers from filling sunny Florida hotel rooms winter after winter.

For this very reason Florida hotel room rates are higher than they have ever been, and rising; as are home prices.

Until people stop wanting to vacation and move to warm, coastal climates nothing will change.

And if the past 100 years of Hurricanes and earthquakes haven’t stopped these sun worshipers, most likely nothing will.

By Howcome?

June 13, 2006 12:34 PM | Link to this

Agree prices and local median income are not good stats as ratio. Maybe home prices are rising in some parts, but MANY condos in beach areas are sitting for months and I am watching prices drop and drop and drop and still not sell. Will provide listings if you want. It seems groups that previously bought for retirement or vacation home are preferring to rent seasonally and leave Tax, Ins, Storm worries to others. The economics currently allow enough return on other investments that Florida is not the bargain it once was. Treating out of state owners as second class as far as tax or insurance issues has caused resentment, and as pointed out, our market was driven by out of area purchasers with higher incomes than locals. Many are finding other nice areas that welcome their spending and less need of schools,etc. (See article at aarpmagazine :top 5 places to retire)

By

June 13, 2006 01:44 PM | Link to this

agree, our market is subsidized, and if fla legislators don’t do something to respect/honor these “external” market forces (retirees) then they will eventually choose to go elsewhere

fla has been resting on it’s heels since save our homes was passed

the time to act is now, before it’s too late!

By

June 13, 2006 02:58 PM | Link to this

People always have, and always will, pay a premium to live in a coastal environment. And Fla has more coastline than anyone else. You can call that premium “overpriced” if you want to, but any way you spell it you get what you pay for. 8-mil. for a 3k sq. ft. home on the ocean overpriced?? I think so. But thousands who live on AIA would argue otherwise. Try to tell Trump his latest $125Mil. offering in Palm Beach is “overpriced”. He’ll laugh all the way to the bank. I hear he’s about to close. Crazy, but true. There is just no limit to how much money people can make and spend.

By Totalmkt

June 13, 2006 03:23 PM | Link to this

No dispute very high end of market will be OK as in Manhattan, etc. Beach condos in 300k-600K range are definately available, moving very slow if at all, and problem area of mkt. Heres just a couple of MLS listings:

Price Reduced: 05/27/06 — $419,000 to $389,000;

Price Reduced: 01/20/06 — $499,000 to $489,000 Price Reduced: 02/01/06 — $489,000 to $469,000 Price Reduced: 03/18/06 — $469,000 to $455,000 Price Reduced: 06/11/06 — $455,000 to $444,500 Look at these listings, nice 2/2 units. Many,many more sitting waiting for buyer/investor. Go get-em if you really believe NO PROBLEMS with SO Fl Real Estate. Otherwise tell state govt they are killing THIS segment of mkt. Even potential buyers who have no problem financially resent rediculous carrying costs of Taxes and Insurance.

By

June 13, 2006 04:48 PM | Link to this

It’s funny people don’t think median income and median housing prices shouldn’t be looked at.

I’m finishing up my graduate degree soon. Once I’ve finished my degree I plan on leaving south florida. I’m also finding many people in my graduate program are talking about the same thing.

1. I can make more money elsewhere, and
2. I can get better bang for my buck elsewhere

I grew up in south florida and when I went away for my undergrad, I always envisioned working and living in this area. Now that I’m back, I want out of south florida. My family is a little upset about my decision, but even they agree PBC has changed for the worse over the last 10 years.

Some of the areas I’m considering are Texas, North Carolina, Indiana/Ohio, Maryland/Virginia.

Did everyone catch the “Brainpower” index yesterday? If not, here it is:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13269126/

By

June 13, 2006 06:50 PM | Link to this

Harvard University says long awaited “downturn” in real estate market will not be forthcoming. Prices will continue to rise slowly based on many economic indicators and factors that show no sign of relenting. These conditions are exazerbated in florida with 1,000 moving here daily. PBC gleans the wealthiest slice of that demographic pie. Very soberminded and intelligently written article (obviously, it was written by Harvard Economists and based on five years of study). Link here:

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.asp?Feed=FT&Date=20060613&ID=5790548

By Articlereader

June 13, 2006 07:30 PM | Link to this

Read article,read posts, read listings for our areas, have watched condo owners here cut selling price and still unable to sell. Sadly I think we fall into one of those “pockets” refd to in article :

“Not everyone concurs, however. Many economists say national figures are deceptive, since they obscure pockets of extreme over-valuation in property prices and greater vulnerability to rising rates. Others point to evidence of overbuilding in recent years. Residential investment has risen to 6 per cent of gross domestic product – its highest level in 50 years and much higher than the average of 4.75 per cent.”

If you honestly look at the glut of listings in our areas you have to see we just do not have enough buyers for whatever reason. Don’t take it personal, it is nice to see unrestrained optimism, but I think it is better to look at the facts squarely and lobby for Tax relief, somekind of affordable Ins Pool or other ways to get things better.

By

June 13, 2006 08:27 PM | Link to this

Id have to agree with that Grad Student. South Florida is becoming ridiculous. Im getting out of Florida as soon as Im done with my Undergrad. Who on their right mind would pay these kind of prices for a house, a simple house. Granted, I understand the fact that these houses are “resort” style houses on the beach, close to the beach. But just the other day while reading through the classifieds, I noticed a house listed as waterfront property becuase there was a canal behind the property. Its just madness, and I will be taking my degree and money to a region of this country that I can live practically. Believe me I am not the only one in my college who plan on getting out of Florida ASAP. Soon, the workforce will be forced out of this state due to lack of affordable housing. AFFORDABLE, meaning a single Family who makes 20,000-25,000 can afford to rent an apartment suitable for their family. Who will be left to man the workforce then? Retirees??? I doubt it, GOOD LUCK.

By Nazz

June 13, 2006 08:49 PM | Link to this

Hehe, you need to come to California. Here in Orange County a 1400 sq.ft townhome will go for 900k plus.

Florida prices are still a joke in comparison. You can pick up a 4000 sq.ft home in Palm Beach Co. for 1.2m Here in Orange County that would be 1.6-2.0m

…and incomes here in California are not much higher than Florida.

People who move to Florida have no idea how cheap the current prices are.

By danj

June 13, 2006 08:53 PM | Link to this

I hope people keep moving here and the housing market starts going again like it did a year ago.Hopefully Scripps will bring the prices sky high in Jupiter,like California or close to the market.Then I will sell and move to Tn,S.C.or Ga.Everybody come to south florida.So it can be a sellers market.

By paul

June 13, 2006 09:16 PM | Link to this

danj, I’m with you. But I’m looking to moving back to the midwest. It seems even those homes which were bought here for a bargain are just getting ridiculously costly on a yearly basis due to skyrocketing insurance rates, high property taxes, and did you ever notice how much any little home improvement costs in this area a/o/t other areas of the country. Geez! Where do minimum wage workers live in PBC. There are plenty of people making $10 and under in this county - Where do they live? It’s just disgraceful!

By Selling

June 13, 2006 09:34 PM | Link to this

Hey Nazz, come on down and take advantage of us yokels that have no idea how cheap prices are. Plenty o’ pickins, just go to Realtor.com or any other service. You won’t believe the number of dummies selling so cheap. Time for slick investors to jump in. PLEASE

By sellertoo

June 13, 2006 09:38 PM | Link to this

Poster Totalmkt above even put MLS #s of couple of nice units just waiting to be scooped up by all these buyers coming in. I have one question- WHERE ARE THE BUYERS ?

By Nazz

June 13, 2006 10:33 PM | Link to this

Another 6 months will be a true buyer’s game as prices drop and the firesale peaks. Long term, South Florida is still a great bet if you ask me.

Once the suckers get scared away I plan on coming in to scoop up some more great properties at cheap prices trust me.

I have a property for sell in WPB now but there’s only so low I will go before I pull it off the market. I’m just trying to maximize short term profits on this one and reinvest. Most investors are trying to do the same. If the traffic stays low though, I predict many properties will come off the market.

Where are you going to put your money? Back in stocks? No way.

By I'm out (for now)

June 13, 2006 10:50 PM | Link to this

Good Luck Nazz. I’m sure there will be plenty of sellers waiting for you. I thought of making few offers soon as some units I have been following have dropped drasticly (60k; 90K; and 80K). Something is not right down here though so I do not want to get stuck carrying too long at what carrying costs would be. Too many rentals available, so can’t depend enough on high enough rental to make a profit after INS, HOA, etc. Will check back periodicaly, but for near term I’m not liking numbers in SoFL. Help yourself.

By Mike FInk

June 13, 2006 11:29 PM | Link to this

Nazz,

I agree that houses are more expensive in CA, I looked at living there seriously before and determined that it would not be worth it for me (too far from family, etc).

However, for the job here where I am in the 50K range, in CA that is 100K. Now that is exceptional, that’s for certain (I am in the technology market, and was looking in the San Fran/Silicon Valley area), but I really do not think that the salaries here hold up when compared to the income in CA.

Also, median home price is a decieving statistic. What is the median home? My condo is 300K for 800sq ft, so I am under the median home price. But the place is very small. Median home price is not standardized for SQ footage; the more meaninful number (which I have never seen) is median price per sq ft.

I agree with most of your comments, but I disaree that salaries are “adequte” in this area to support the home prices. Yes, people will come here to retire. But if the median salary does not climb, FL is going to experience a serious “brain drain” effect; where many of the high level working class professionals move out of the area to seek better employement elsewhere.

By Kris

June 14, 2006 12:17 AM | Link to this

As we are coming up on seeing some negative year over year growth here in the next month I will be interested to see how people react. If you want to get a feeling for how the market is going just check out Realtor.com. There are tens of thousands of properties for sale over the price that the median income can afford. FL was very affordable several years ago to live based on the fact that other than water and sunshine it lacks a lot of things you get in a city or other urban area. FL was maintained the highest foreclosure rate of any city in the past and will soon hold that title again. FL is a town for dreamers and I strongly feel that they will soon be waking up to a nightmare. Also, look at a past issue of FL trend. The 1000 people a day moving here is misleading. That number is for the entire state and includes new births and an economic group that live in poverty. It is not that there is 1000 doctors moving here a day..

By Bill

June 14, 2006 12:36 AM | Link to this

I have lived here in PBC for 2 years now. I moved from the Boston area because at the time PBC was more affordable. The past 2 years have been a nightmare for me. The cost of living here compared to what companies pay down here are ridiculous. I don’t know how people do it. I have a good education and I still can’t find a company that is willing to pay me more than $11.00 an hour. I can’t wait to get out of here and back up north, where at least you get paid according to the cost of living!

By

June 14, 2006 07:15 AM | Link to this

Moved from New York to Singer Island almost 15 years ago. Bought a house for under $130,000. It took a year, but found employment that, at the time, paid me what I made in New York. I wouldn’t trade my piece of paradise (except the new condos on the beach) for anything. Insurance is high and the city millage rate is high, but it’s worth it. It’s all about what kind of quality of life you’re looking for and willing to pay.

By

June 14, 2006 07:16 AM | Link to this

by the way…that $130,000 house on Singer Island is now worth $900,000

By Worth 900K?

June 14, 2006 07:55 AM | Link to this

Any “worth” can be put on any property. High worth estimates make for higher ins costs, taxes,ego boost. Then join the legions of sellers trying to get what their property is “worth”.Lots of bubbles being burst - just look on listings, print some out, check same after a few months. I have been doing this since Dec. 2005. Price drops are amazing. Feel bad only for those who really need to sell but are stuck struggling with spiraling costs. Watching this unfold has the same macabre facination as multiple car crashes have.

By JimmJ

June 14, 2006 08:26 AM | Link to this

S. Florida prices will drop 50-70% in the next 5 years. Taxes, insurance costs, 60 year old dumps, no real jobs (everything is dependent on RE), and the fact the there is a negative savings rate will seal the fate.

All you idiots that used exotic loans and bought way more that you could afford better lowwer your prices now and get out out. You are the reason for the overvaluation on the way up, and your defaults will be the reason on the way down.

Denial is where you are all it now.

By agree with JimJ

June 14, 2006 08:41 AM | Link to this

Gotta agree with Jim. Tha attraction of Florida used to be great weather and CHEAP prices. The weather is still here but retirees can no longer consider Florida as a financually safe place to settle. I also agree that the market is flooded with speculators and “flippers”. Once these guys get burned a few times prices will probably decline a bit.

By Retirees

June 14, 2006 09:12 AM | Link to this

Many retirees were priced out of SoFl over pst few years run-up. In many cases it turned out to be a real blessing. Instead of just following pest herds to SoFl, they found very affordable places in lovely areas(see article at aarpmagazine site) that wanted their money, stability, and no need for schools. Over past few years they have shared their experiances, and now even affluent retirees look askance at carrying costs in SoFl when so much else is available elsewhere. I love it here, but having visited relatives in No.Carolina I can see the appeal of that area. Especially with cost comparision. The people I visit dont feel like they have settled for something less than So.Fl. they feel like they have improved their life-style greatly.

By 2stepsforward3stepsback

June 14, 2006 09:16 AM | Link to this

Much like elsewhere overpriced housing in PBC is due to the large influx of baby boomers with large disposable incomes. Once this generation declines things here will change. That generation had great jobs, pensions, affordable or free health insurance, no credit card debt, bought a house for 1/4 of their annual salary back in the 1950’s-60’s and etc.

Take the average 20 something let’s say they are a recent college grad and don’t have any finanical help from Mommy or Daddy, at the average salary they will make if they even find a decent job here, do you think they can live or afford the South Florida lifestyle? Add to the stew high tuition loans and debt. Forclosures and bankruptcies are rising….

By Mike Fink

June 14, 2006 09:32 AM | Link to this

The poster from NYC pointed something very profound (congrats on landing a job paying you the same as you made in NYC; I think I might still be looking had I demanded my salary from Philadelhpia), his 130K home (15 years ago) has appreciated to 900K. How much did you sell your place in NYC for? 250K? How much is it worth today? 1mil?

Now, I am just guessing on the numbers; but my argument would be that the 130K home on Singer Island has appreciated at a rate of 2-3X the rate of appreciation in NYC. This is unsustainable without a salary climb to meet the new housing costs.

I agree that FL has unique econmics, but I also think that we threaten the very thing that we depend on when we discuss these home prices; the retiree community. As we get more and more like NYC in So Fl (housing density) I think we are going to see the retirees go elsewhere. I don’t doubt that many will still come, but I also know that most people do not want to reitre into the “big city” lifestyle. The people I know who are retiring today are looking at the Sebastian/Melbourne area and further north; primarily to get away from “the craziness of So Fl”.

I do not see a housing collapse across So Fl. However, I do see a significant adjustment in certain areas that are just mad with speculation. I would not be suprised if the prices adjust by 30-40% in the downtown corridor of WPB. There are so many condos down here; which I can tell you (I live in one of them) are at 1/2 empty. Its very strange when you live in one of the “most desireable” WPB locations and you have no neighbors for 2 condos on either side (all 4 are for sale).

By Teacher

June 14, 2006 11:09 AM | Link to this

The 1,000/day figure IS for people moving to Florida from outside the state — births are not included in that figure. My husband and I moved here from Massachusetts four years ago, just before the prices skyrocketed, and we got a wonderful price in Boynton Beach. Immediately after we bought our home, prices started to jump. Condos like ours, in our own community, are currently selling (even with the downturn) for twice what we paid just four years ago. I’ve switched to a teaching career, and we feel we are very fortunate to have moved when we did. There is no way we could have afforded to move today. The homestead exemption means that as long as we stay where we are, our taxes won’t increase by very much, and we were also fortunate because our insurance company from up north agreed to cover us, even though they won’t accept new customers. They don’t plan to abandon the customers they are currently serving, so we are in good shape. But so many people who want to live here (rather than buying as a speculative investment) can’t afford to do so any longer. The ones who are really going to be hurt by the downturn are the people who bought condos with the intention of flipping them. Still, I don’t agree that prices will tank by 50% or more, as some have written in this blog. There are still 1,000 people a day moving to Florida and there are always going to be people who want to live here. The type of people who are able to move here will change, but people will still come. Condos in my community are still selling, although it takes a little longer for them to sell than it did in the past, and you certainly don’t get bidding wars. But they are selling for within 5-8% of what they sold for at the peak of the market.

By Traci

June 14, 2006 12:38 PM | Link to this

The study actually DID look at more than just price and income. It also included factors such as interest rates and historical premiums / discounts for various areas. Thus, to some extent, it probably took into account the fact that many are willing to pay a premium to live near a coast, etc.

With that said, it appears to me that the methodology may be optimal and it’s not clear to me what sort of data they used for their study. The premium that people pay to live in a specific place (e.g., near an ocean) may, in fact, vary over time due to changing demographic trends, particularly the aging baby boomers.

I still think the region is overvalued. I just wouldn’t base my opinion on the study.

By GBS

June 14, 2006 01:02 PM | Link to this

I have seen many people mention this 1000/person per day influx rate, so I looked into it. United Van Lines ran a study of US migration patterns based on their actual 2005 state-to-state trips.

To find the study, do a google search for ‘united van lines state migration’

The study classified a state as ‘High-inbound’, ‘High-outbound’ or ‘Balanced’ and contains a color coded map at the bottom of the study.

In 2005, Florida was classified as a ‘Balanced’ state.

Concerning FL, the study also states:

“While Florida (54.2%) has been inbound since the survey commenced, this year marked the lowest number of relocations to the state since 2000.”

By Teacher

June 14, 2006 01:51 PM | Link to this

The population of Florida has been soaring in recent years. Within the next few years, we are going to overtake New York State as the fourth most populous state in the nation.

By Looking to leave and continuing to rent

June 14, 2006 02:01 PM | Link to this

My wife and I are both professionals and make well over the median household income. We moved to the area a year ago and would like to buy our first home. But with the cost of a decent home in a nice neighborhood about 500k, about 50% of our monthly salary would need to be allocated to housing costs using a standard mortgage. Combine that with the cost of private schools (Florida’s public schools are a joke), and we can’t afford a home.

There are a LOT of young families like us, so how does anybody think that prices can continue to rise when most retirees and professionals moving to the area can’t afford a house?

By Michael Fink

June 14, 2006 02:39 PM | Link to this

I am in exactly the same situation, my girlfriend and I both make (each of us) over the median household income in PB county. So we are a little over double the median income. We still are not in a situation to be able to afford a 400K home; its just not realistic with under 130-150K in household income.

The retirees; I do not think, are really a problem. It does not matter if they can afford to live here or not; they sell homes up north and then purchase down here for cash. Their infuluence on our market is significant because they are not price sensitive like young professionals.

However, this is the “brain drain” effect that I spoke about earlier. If young professionals cannot afford to live comfortably here they will move. We can afford it; our roots are not firmly tied to this area; and we can make alot more money and pay the same or less for homes in many other great areas of the country.

My point is, you cannot have a community composed of govt subsidized housing (which is totally insenstive to price) and mansions. You need the middle/upper middle class to sustain a workforce. These are the people who can easily leave FL for better opprotunities and are the most likely to move where the best work is.

I don’t think that you can have a community made up of low class/subsidized housing, retirees and multi-millionaires who made their money elsewhere. PB cannot survive without the professional workforce; unfortunately, the professional workforce cannot survive in PB.

By Mortgage Lady

June 14, 2006 03:50 PM | Link to this

I am a mortgage processor in SO FL and I can tell you that there has been a drastic drop in the market. Where I used to process 6 mortgages at one time in November, I am now processing 1 in June.

I do believe that the houses are overpriced, but I also believe that people in general are extending themselves beyond their means. Most buyers cannot even afford the downpayment on a property, they need to get money from a relative as a gift in order to purchase under a “low income” mortgage. I myself rent because I cannot afford to buy. I also am not being paid what I should be for my position.

I am looking to return to PA where I will at least earn what the position warrants.

I love my job, but I don’t know how much longer I can survive in this market - with less work and more layoffs.

By

June 14, 2006 04:44 PM | Link to this

Obviously from these comments it is clear that the people moving out of florida are the ones who cannot afford to stay, and the people moving into florida can (or they wouldn’t be moving here in the first place now would they). All of you moved here when you could afford to live here. All the people moving into PBC daily can afford to live here. All the people moving out daily cannot.

It is so simple. Why can’t people see it? It’s called “gentrification” and the process is as old as time itself.

Flagler moved into Palm Beach, and the indians moved out.

Mizner moved into Boca Raton, and the Japanese moved out.

Wealthy boomers move into PBC, and those displaced by rising prices move out.

But you are all moving to places you can afford. So what is the problem?

North Carolina is beautiful. Washington State is beautiful. Ohio is beautiful.

Anywhere you go there are beautiful people, and beautiful places to live.

Enjoy.

By Nazz

June 14, 2006 04:51 PM | Link to this

Mike,

I never said the salaries support the real estate prices. They most certainly do not, but they also don’t really support the prices in California either. Salaries are slightly higher here but not much.

Exotic loans, e.g, interest only, 3/5 ARM or 40 or 50 year load products, plus current equity are what mostly supports those high prices.

People will gamble with those loan products if they feel the long term market is good, otherwise they won’t. People no longer feel good about the market and new loan applications have plummeted as many have stated.

Real estate companies use those exotic loans as well and do this all the time during property development if they can get away with it. They buy/build properties and suck out all the cash they can from them and pull that cash out of the company. If things go bust it’s the banks problem and people running those companies walk away with a pile of cash.

Banks should be sweating right now if anyone should. Once the foreclosures start, Banks will be sitting on a lot of property they need to get rid of.

That’s when I come in.

By another retiree

June 14, 2006 04:55 PM | Link to this

We have been looking at PBC off and on for a while. It seems that the market in detached homes, even in upper price ranges, is softening. When I look at actual sold prices in PAPA in the last few months, there seems to be a real downtrend. Problem was not retirees with a ton of cash - but flippers & easy mortgage money. Don’t think the market will crash, rather a slow letting of air. Another issue is the crazy real estate taxes and insurance premiums. No wonder so many of the baby boomers are heading to other areas. However, slowdown is not only in FL, rather in all areas where prices ran up fast.

By LanaBeth

June 14, 2006 06:22 PM | Link to this

Some acquaintaneces of ours had a very cheaply built 4/2 pool home in Jupiter Landings in Jupiter, 1,500 square feet living area. They sold it for about $300,000.00 and from the way it was built and the amenities, or should I say lack of, it was worth about 160K tops. It has now gone up in price. According to the listings, a model like theirs has an asking price now of $349,000.00. I wouldn’t pay $150,000.00 for it. Once the over-inflated home prices catch up, I feel very sorry for the current owners; they are going to have to bring thousands of their own money with them to the closing table they day they sell, if they are lucky to sell it.

By GT

June 14, 2006 06:31 PM | Link to this

You couldn’t pay me to live in PBC. We finally had it up to hear a couple of years ago and moved out. It was the best move we ever made. The place is humid, flat, and just plain ugly. The PBC beaches are flat, ugly and dirty. The people are rude and crude. There’s no culture. The restaurants serve the lousiest food I’ve ever put in my mouth and at prices high enough to make you want to gag even more. The hurricanes are getting worse and worse. The schools are pathetic. All of the houses look the same. No hills - no change of seasons - NOTHING! If someone put a loaded gun to my head, I couldn’t tell you what the draw to PBC is. It’s one of the most disgusting places I’ve ever had the displeasure of living, and I’m thankful I’m finally outta’ there!

By Thumper

June 14, 2006 06:36 PM | Link to this

I like you GT,at least someone has smarts to move out.

By jd

June 14, 2006 07:03 PM | Link to this

GT thats why your still reading the palm beach post and on its website. Sounds like you have no life in your new neighborhood. Scripps and it many spinoffs will make this a great place to work and live

By periwinkle

June 14, 2006 10:01 PM | Link to this

My family moved to Florida in 1946 at Briney Breezes. The mosquitoes, land crabs and no-see-ems controlled the un-air conditioned sparce human population.

Fishing was very good and when digging footers in Delray you had to wait for the water table to lower before pouring concrete.

Now that the developers have drained the land and air conditioning is common, hoards of snow birds have found a permanent roost. Do I feel bad about that, No! I still like the weather and I don’t fish much anymore.

By rca

June 14, 2006 11:34 PM | Link to this

Some housing bubble reports from Florida. “The housing standoff between buyers and sellers in South Florida will continue for another six months, and then prices in some areas will fall, a well-respected economist predicted Tuesday. In some cases prices may fall by 10 percent to 15 percent, said David Lereah, the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist.”

i wish people will stop claiming that there is no housing crisis in palm beach county. too many want-a-bee flippers.

it is overrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

By Kathleen

June 15, 2006 01:59 AM | Link to this

I moved out of Palm Beach County last year back to Chicago. The jobs in Illinois are not that great. It changed drastically here in Illinois. The houses went way up and so did the cost of living. The wages are lower now than 6 years ago. There are a lot of illegal aliens working in Illinois. I don’t buy food from McDonalds or any other fast food place because its all illegal aliens. I am glad I moved out of Florida but I am highly disappointed in the job market in Chicago and the salaries. The job section of the Chicago Tribune is a very thin section. My siblings are still in West Palm Beach and trying to sell their house. They are not flippers because they have lived at their house for 8 years and put time and money in the house. It is the flippers who is ruining the housing market and the realtors. My family is trying to sell by owner and they are using for sale by owner signs in the lawns. Realtors don’t like the fact that my family is for sale by owner and talk negative about their house because the realtors don’t get commission from for sale by owners. Another unprofessional thing the realtors do is that they steal the for sale by owner sign so that buyers won’t see the house for sale. The buyers in Florida should not use realtors because they are nasty people and don’t deserve their commissions. Buyers should not buy from flippers at all. Don’t get too excited about coming back to the Midwest because Illinois ranks 45th in jobs and the sate is filled with a bunch of illegal immigrants from Mexico. Things have changed too much across America. Sellers should not give in to buyers and buyers should not use realtors. Buyers should research the area on their own and save money by not using realtors !!!!!

By Kathleen

June 15, 2006 02:00 AM | Link to this

I moved out of Palm Beach County last year back to Chicago. The jobs in Illinois are not that great. It changed drastically here in Illinois. The houses went way up and so did the cost of living. The wages are lower now than 6 years ago. There are a lot of illegal aliens working in Illinois. I don’t buy food from McDonalds or any other fast food place because its all illegal aliens. I am glad I moved out of Florida but I am highly disappointed in the job market in Chicago and the salaries. The job section of the Chicago Tribune is a very thin section. My siblings are still in West Palm Beach and trying to sell their house. They are not flippers because they have lived at their house for 8 years and put time and money in the house. It is the flippers who is ruining the housing market and the realtors. My family is trying to sell by owner and they are using for sale by owner signs in the lawns. Realtors don’t like the fact that my family is for sale by owner and talk negative about their house because the realtors don’t get commission from for sale by owners. Another unprofessional thing the realtors do is that they steal the for sale by owner sign so that buyers won’t see the house for sale. The buyers in Florida should not use realtors because they are nasty people and don’t deserve their commissions. Buyers should not buy from flippers at all. Don’t get too excited about coming back to the Midwest because Illinois ranks 45th in jobs and the sate is filled with a bunch of illegal immigrants from Mexico. Things have changed too much across America. Sellers should not give in to buyers and buyers should not use realtors. Buyers should research the area on their own and save money by not using realtors !!!!!

By

June 15, 2006 08:03 AM | Link to this

All things considered, PBC is probably one of the biggest bang-for-the-buck regions in the United States. We really have it all. I feel so fortunate to live here and it is so sad to hear all the people complaining about such a beautiful area. These blogs seem to attract only negativity or greedy people looking to talk down the market.

Good luck with that. NAR median price comes out again on the 25th. Guess what? Yes, it’s still rising.

More for you to complain about. You’ve been waiting six years for your precious bubble to burst. Another six years won’t hurt you.

Please try to look on the sunny side of things while you wait.

It’s negativity like all this that gives PBC residents and visitors so much to complain about.

You are your own self-fulfilling prophecy.

Thanks.

By PBC

June 15, 2006 08:44 AM | Link to this

Many people on these blogs are expressing their discontent with forces in action that threaten their ability to continue enjoying PBC. Some of these are people who have helped make PBC the place so many people find attractive. They do not have the luxury of “waiting and looking on the sunny side”. These are people who helped build PBC and want to stay but are being slowly crushed by ever escalating costs. Consider yourself very fortunate not to have to make choices now between trying to hang on or sell.

By

June 15, 2006 09:30 AM | Link to this

NAR Median Prices by month for PBC to show they are not rising and appear to have peaked:

April 2005 - $372,300 May 2005 - $390,900 June 2005 - $406,800 July 2005 - $391,600 August 2005 - $411,400 September 2005 - $400,400 October 2005 - $416,500 November 2005 - $421,500 (PEAK) December 2005 - $408,200 January 2006 - $393,700 February 2006 - $391,000 March 2006 - $393,700 April 2006 - $386,500 May 2006 - ? (to be released)

May 2006 could potentially indicate prices having gone down year over year. We’ll have to wait and see.

Markets can accomplish self fulfilling prophecies both on the upside and on the downside.

By Michael Fink

June 15, 2006 08:41 PM | Link to this

I am not sure where some of these numbers have come from (refering to the above post), but I really have to dispute some of the things that you have said.

I don’t know anyone who thinks that this is a 6 year bubble. Yes, prices have been climbing for a few years; but I don’t remember anyone talking about the FL real estate market 6 years ago. Now when I am in NY (or pretty much anywhere in the country) its a hot topitc of converstation.

Best “bang for the buck”? I have no idea what your basing this on, but certainly most people (myself included) would not agree with you. Palm Beach county has been on the top 10 most overpriced regions in the US for the past few years (at least 2, I am not sure further back then that), along with PSL and other So Fl locations. Bang for your buck? Definatly not in PB County.

My family is from NJ, outside of Philadelphia. If you want to see some bang for the buck; look up homes in Woolwich Township, NJ. This area is about 15-30 mins from downtown Philly (depending on where your going), has high paying jobs (because of the big city nearby) and the price per sq foot is a total joke compared to this area. A home that would be 1-3 million here in Frenchman’s Preserve is 500-700K there. And your closer to a major city/airport with higher paying jobs. 400-500K will put you in a home 4000+ sq ft, 1+ acres, and lots of upgrades (marble/tile/jacuzzi, etc).

Now, Philly does not have the weather, and you definately do pay for that in PB County. However, I believe my point is still valid; the home prices here represent a very bad value when contrasted with other desierable areas.

By

June 16, 2006 08:11 AM | Link to this

Michael, you can find the above median prices on the Florida Association of Realtors Website. They have monthly data going back to 1994 which includes monthly median sales prices and sales volume by MSA.

http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.htm

By Jaj

June 19, 2006 09:29 PM | Link to this

So many people seem to overreact at the slightest adjustment in the market.Doomsday is not here!Palm Beach County is a gem of an area with a constant influx of families & retirees moving here every day.Baby boomers are just starting to retire & they have gobs of discretionary income to spend on their well deserved & hard earned dream lifestyle homes.If they really want it & can afford it, they’ll oftentimes get it.Don’t forget: prime real estate is a great investment long term.The stock market is still very shaky & many people still are left with the bad taste of the early 2000 markets.Palm Beach county will always be an upscale area & will just be moreso in the future. Try living in Manhatten, L.A.,or San Fran.

By Michael Fink

June 20, 2006 05:50 PM | Link to this

I understand what your saying; it is more expensive to live in the areas you mentioned. But the salaries are there; that’s the part that people overlook. Who cares how much a house costs if you can afford it?

That’s why PB is on the list of the most overpriced areas in the world to live; the salaries here do not support the housing prices. San Fran is also on that list (I am not sure about LA), but NYC is NOT on that list; for the simple reason that people make big bucks there, which greatly helps offset the cost of the housing.

I agree, PB is a wonderful area, and I love living here. But is it 100% nicer then it was 4 years ago? Because that’s what the prices seem to reflect. I don’t think anyone would dispute that this is a great place to live; only that the housing is far more costly then it should be.

As Palm Beach becomes more and more urban, we are going to be able to depend less and less on the retirees. People do not want to retire into a hustle and bustle big city lifestyle. They want quite places (on the beach, if possible) where they can relax. Yes, there are exceptions; but the more we become like Long Island, the less people are going to want to retire here. My parents are 60 years old, and they can’t STAND the traffic down here; they can’t believe that I can deal with it every day.

The time is coming for PB to become a city in its own right; not a place for 80 year old people to come and retire. The more we become a major metropolitan area (with the big time prices) the more we need to create the jobs that can pay for these homes.