Heed storm warnings, not line on storm track

Last August, Hurricane Charley suddenly intensified, veered from its Tampa Bay-bound path and smashed into Punta Gorda. That wobble intensified the National Hurricane Center's debate over eliminating the "skinny line" that bisects its Cone of Error.

On Thursday, Katrina wobbled south, which may have caught many in Miami-Dade and Monroe counties off guard. Does the skinny line create a false sense of security for those it doesn't touch?

It shouldn't. There were hurricane warnings from Vero Beach to Florida City. Graphics of the predicted path caution that "NHC forecast tracks of the center can be in error" and "it is also important to realize tropical cyclones are not a point." The skinny line, which represents the consensus projected path, is useful information. But Floridians have to read it as a package with the error cone. Storms such as Charley and Katrina teach that lesson painfully.

Being nervous about storms is healthy, so it made sense for Martin and St. Lucie counties, clobbered last year by Frances and Jeanne, to close school even though landfall nearer Fort Lauderdale seemed more likely. Palm Beach County also closed a half-day on Thursday and all day Friday. It would have been safer and wiser to close all day Thursday -- half days are a waste -- and leave the decision about Friday until later. By late Thursday afternoon, it was clear that schools could have been in session on Friday.

Storm intensity, like the path, is uncertain. The Saffir-Simpson wind scale does not tell the whole story. Even a Category 1 storm like Katrina can dump devastating rain and spin off destructive gusts. Forecasters struggle to compensate for the wind-scale's shortcomings. And politicians and other officials still struggle to compensate for policy shortcomings laid bare last year.

Cities in Palm Beach and the Treasure Coast seem to have been better prepared, though this wasn't a true test. Spotty gasoline shortages indicate that Gov. Bush should keep jawboning suppliers and distributors to meet emergency demands. It's too early to assess the performances of Florida Power & Light and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. FEMA has experience paying claims in Miami-Dade County. This time, the claims actually will be legitimate.

Insurance reform also is unfinished business. Katrina is predicted to strengthen significantly and could hit the Panhandle. What will that do to rates and availability? No matter where storms hit, their Insurance Impact Cone covers the entire state.

• To contribute to the Florida Hurricane Relief Fund, visit www.flahurricanefund.org or call (800) 825-3786.