Why Lebanon matters

The departure, after nearly three decades, of Syrian troops from Lebanon means something for Lebanon, for Syria, for Iran, for Israel and for the United States. If enough variables work out, it could mean progress toward peace.

Syria sent troops in 1976 to help stop Lebanon's civil war. The war ended in 1990, but the troops stayed, allowing Syria and its ally Iran to use southern Lebanon as a haven for the terrorist group Hezbollah. It also gave Syria more leverage with Israel, which stationed troops in southern Lebanon until 2000. The hope is that with Lebanon free of foreign soldiers -- Syria and Iran still may have agents there -- the country will move toward democracy and a better relationship with Israel.

To get there from here, though, Lebanon's political factions will have to cooperate in a way they did not during the 1970s. Also, Syrian President Bashar Assad, Iran and Hezbollah will have to be good losers, since all benefited from Syria's dominance of Lebanon. If the country becomes democratic and free, Hezbollah faces disarmament, and Syria and especially Iran -- which Israel regards as its greatest enemy -- face loss of influence. It all comes as other nations are pressuring Iran on the issue of nuclear weapons.

"The United States and Europe seem close to being on the same page about Lebanon, which is to isolate Iran," said U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler, D-Delray Beach, a member of the House International Relations Committee. "The hope is then to isolate Hezbollah from the 'rejectionist' groups and get Hamas to participate in Palestinian politics." Since Hamas has staged the most terror attacks against Israelis, turning Hamas away from violence and toward a political role would hasten negotiations with the Palestinians.

Many Lebanese regard the Syrians' departure with ambivalence. They welcome the chance for independence, but worry that the country could slide back into civil war. Parliamentary elections this spring will be the first indicator of change. Stability in Lebanon would be one more blow to terrorism.