Iraq held the elections; where's the government

Iraqi elections were so dramatic and successful that many Americans have taken Iraq off their mental crisis list. But what is happening in Iraq now will directly affect when U.S. troops can come home.

The newly elected National Assembly, which is scheduled to meet today, has fallen behind in its first essential function -- to select top officials including a prime minister, the most powerful post. Until that is done, the assembly can't officially begin the more important task of drafting a new Iraqi constitution. Two U.S. military commanders, Army Gen. George Casey and Army Gen. John P. Abizaid, said on Sunday that they think many of the 150,000 U.S. troops in Iraq can come home within a year. "Provided," Gen. Abizaid said, "the political process continues to be successful."

Problems forming an interim government show that smooth progress isn't a given. The leading candidates are known. The likely prime minister is Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a conservative Shiite leader of the United Iraqi Alliance, which won the most seats in the elections. In a nod to the political power of the Kurdish minority living in northern Iraq, a Kurd named Jalal Talabani is likely to be named president of the interim government. Political and ethnic divisions that will make Iraq difficult to govern have kept a deal from being finalized.

Secular Shiites, such as Ayad Allawi, who was the U.S.-backed interim prime minister prior to elections, have warned that Mr. Jaafari will give clerics too much influence. U.S. officials also have worried that Iraq might become an Islamic theocracy like Iran. Meanwhile, Kurds have been withholding their full support until the main Shiite parties agree to give them substantial autonomy and political control over the oil-rich, three-province area around Kirkuk. Even as that jockeying goes on, Shiites are looking for ways to include minority Sunni Muslims in the government.

Temporary delay in forming a government might not create permanent problems if the difficult negotiations settle disputes that otherwise would emerge while the assembly writes the constitution, which is supposed to be completed by summer and voted on in the fall. But continued delays could cost the new government popular support. There are signs of stress. On Sunday, Iraqi guards outside a government ministry fired on workers protesting a cut in pay.

American military casualties are down significantly, as commanders try to shift more insurgency-fighting to Iraqis. For U.S. troops to be streaming home a year from now, however, Iraq must have a functioning government that has controlled the insurgency. Security will enable Iraq to stabilize oil production, which not only would help Iraq's economy, but would ease world prices and give American consumers a break. The political groundwork for that progress has to be laid soon.