UGA blog finds new home
Morning all. As I’ve said a couple of times this week, we’re converting this blog over to a WordPress platform and it will be a permanent move the first of next week.
Those of you who are regulars probably know that I’m not what you’d call techno-wizard when it comes to these things. But from what I understand the technology offered in this new format should make the blogging and commenting experience better for all. Of course, I’ll be learning as we go along, too. But I’m hoping to provide more pictures and video and things like that which should bring the blog more to life.
Of course, this blog is nothing without all you guys so I want to heartily invite (read: beg) you to come over to the new site by CLICKING HERE ON THE NEW ADDRESS and save it in your browsers. As of Monday, Feb. 23rd, this will be the permanent home of the UGA blog you so love or, in the case of some of you, love to loathe. If you’d prefer to copy and paste or just memorize, the new address is: http://blogs.ajc.com/uga-sports-blog/.
See at the new place!
AJC > Sports > UGA > Blog > Archives > 2007 > February > 15 > Entry
DEL.ICIO.USWho gets in from SEC?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Don’t know how many of you listened to that Georgia basketball game last night, but it was a doosie. I never would have dreamed the Bulldogs had any chance at all of possibly losing that game. But there they were, trailing by six with six minutes to play.
Their performance certainly didn’t say much about how they might look without Mike Mercer. That said, you kind of have to wipe it away since Takais Brown had to sit half the game as punishment for being “a tad late” to Wednesday’s shoot-around, and Kennesaw State played like it was their national championship game.
The real litmus test for Georgia will come this Saturday when they play host to Auburn. The Tigers (14-12, 4-7 SEC) are one of those teams that sits at the bottom of their division, but is very, very dangerous in that they can beat most anyone. You can bet they will have Georgia’s full and total focus and that should be a better gauge as to whether the Bulldogs have a chance at all to make the NCAA tournament.
The Bulldogs, especially now without Mercer, will need all the help they can get from their home crowd. They’re working on three consecutive SEC home sellouts. Last I heard, 500 tickets remained for Saturday’s 4 p.m. game.
Let me hear if you plan to go or are excited about it.
It’s been interesting watching the various prognostications for which teams will make the NCAA’s field of 65. What I’ve noticed is how the SEC went from a league everybody was enamored with nationally to now an also-ran conference. Now you see predictions of the ACC, which early on was said to be in a down year, getting eight and even nine teams in, while generally nobody list the SEC getting more than six.
I’m not sure I agree with that. Obviously, people are focusing on the West division’s problem of establishing a clear power. Ole Miss currently leads that half with a 6-5 league record. Bama and State are tied for second at 5-6.
The fact is the league, outside of Florida, is beating up on each other. But does that balance mean it’s not a strong league? I mean, the SEC dominated in non-conference play. I actually think the selection committee is going to see it differently than these so-called “bracketologists.”
I agree with a lot of the SEC coaches who said on Thursday’s weekly teleconference they expect the league to get at least seven teams. With five games left on everybody’s schedule, we’ll see it shake out in the next two weeks.
We know Florida, Kentucky and Vanderbilt are probably in, and Tennessee is looking pretty good at the moment. The other spots are going to come down to Ole Miss, Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi State.
Which ones do y’all expect to get in? How many from the SEC will make it? How many should make it? Will the Dogs be among them?
Here’s the current league standings to go by:
EAST
• Florida: 24-2, 11-0
• Kentucky: 18-7, 7-4
• Vandy: 17-8, 7-4
• Tenn.: 18-8, 6-5
• Georgia: 15-9, 6-5
• S.Car.: 12-12, 2-9
WEST
• Miss.: 17-8, 6-5
• Bama: 18-7, 5-6
• M. State: 14-10, 5-6
• Ark.: 15-10, 4-7
• Aub.: 14-12, 4-7
• LSU :14-11, 3-8
Permalink | Comments (29) | Post your comment | Categories: Basketball
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Comments
By Hamp
February 15, 2007 2:38 PM | Link to this
Chip-
Great job, as always. Congratulations on the expected addition. Rest up.
Dogs definite at 10-6…probable at 9-7 and a win in the SEC Tournament.
By RamblinRed
February 15, 2007 3:06 PM | Link to this
I think the SEC should get 6 or 7 bids depending upon how the next 2 weeks play out. The ACC should get 7 and 8 wouldn’t be completely unlikely depending upon the mid-majors. The ACC dominated OOC play going 8-3 against both the Big 10 and the SEC.
Fl who hasn’t lost a conference game left lost to a ACC bubble team in FSU.
UGA has a win vs ACC cellar dwellar Wake but 2 losses to ACC bubble teams GT and Clemson.
I think FL, KY, TN and Vandy are relatively safe in the SEC. Then it is the mix of AL (who really needs a signature win), Ole Miss, UGA, Ark and Miss St likely fighting for 2 or 3 bubble spots.
Games against each other will be really important - so with UGA already having a loss to AL the game against Ole Miss is vitally important. Miss St could be really important to.
I think UGA gets in if it goes 3-2 the rest of the way but who knows until selection sunday.
By pj
February 15, 2007 3:44 PM | Link to this
I’ve noticed the shift in “bracketology” as well chip, and it baffles me. The RPI would suggest that your theory is more accurate. Georgia, if they go 3-2 to close the regular season, will have an RPI in the top 40 and a Strength of Schedule way up there - probably in the top 10. They are around both of those numbers now.
If we wind up with the 4 seed in the East, we’ll have a game against the 5 seed in the West - another winnable game, and that BETTER be enough.
The more time that goes by, the more I really think losing Mercer is going to be the dogs’ downfall. He was pure energy, and confused many opponents with his frantic play. He penetrated to the basket past very good players, and opened up alot of things for his teammates, and he could be rlied on as a shut down defender for an opponents strongest wing player.
Such a shame. When do we get a break?
Perhaps it will be Selection Sunday…
By Atlanta Gator
February 15, 2007 3:48 PM | Link to this
Chip——In addition to the win-loss records, you really need to include the weekly update of the official NCAA Ratings Percentage Index (“RPI”) and at least one unofficial RPI daily update in order to give your readers a better picture of how likely various teams are to get a bid. For the official NCAA RPI:
http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2007MBBrpi1.html?
For an example of unofficial daily update of the RPI formula:
http://kenpom.com/rpi.php
It is highly unlikely that any team will receive an at-large NCAA bid if they have an RPI greater than 44 or 45. All of the remaining 20 or 21 bids are automatic bids reserved for conference champions (1 per conference, and usually the conference tournament winner, if applicable).
By Atlanta Gator
February 15, 2007 4:02 PM | Link to this
Chip——Here are the estimated RPIs of each SEC team, based on one daily update of the RPI formula through last night’s games:
Florida 7 Kentucky 8 Tennessee 12 Vanderbilt 44 Georgia 51 South Carolina 101
Alabama 32 Arkansas 47 Mississippi 53 Mississippi State 69 LSU 82 Auburn 108
Based on these numbers, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee and probably Vanderbilt get NCAA bids from the SEC East; and Alabama is only current at-large bid from the West.
Likely bubble team from the East is UGA; likely bubble teams are Arkansas, Ole Miss and maybe Mississippi State.
Bottom line: With strong reular season finishes, UGA, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Mississippi State could play their way into the NCAA tournament, and marginal bid teams like Alabama and Vanderbilt could still play their way out of the NCAAs by finishing weak. The random variable is the marginal teams’ performance in the SEC tournament, where an extra win or 2 could be crucial.
By Atlanta Gator
February 15, 2007 4:09 PM | Link to this
Chip——One final comment. Short of winning the SEC tournament and receiving the SEC’s automatic bid, LSU, South Carolina and Auburn are already done. Stick a fork in them.
By RamblinRed
February 15, 2007 4:28 PM | Link to this
Nice addition of the Daily RPI.
One thing to keep in mind is that sme of the “bubble” teams have games against each other, so teams to some extent will play themselves in or out as a loss to a bubble team will really hurt the second bubble team.
That makes UGA’s games against Ole miss and Miss St extremely important.
By Bryan G.
February 15, 2007 4:30 PM | Link to this
Dan Hawkins quote:
That is the most hilarious thing ever.
By Wozzo the Wonder Dog
February 15, 2007 4:38 PM | Link to this
When your wife says “don’t buy me flowers when the baby is born” that is secret code for “if you value your life, you will have at least a dozen roses delivered by the florist to the hospital”.
Parenting tip: If you pretend to be asleep your wife will get up and take care of the baby crying in the middle of the night.
The SEC never gets any respect in basketball. I remember one year I swear they put at least half the SEC teams in one regional — and the only teams knocking off SEC teams were SEC teams.
SEC 2007 number: 7
Chip: Please post UGA’s remaining schedule with a win-loss prediction with each new Blog topic.
Go DAWGS. BEAT AUBURN.
By Atlanta Gator
February 15, 2007 5:01 PM | Link to this
Wozzo the Wonder Dog——If you get away with that “parenting tip” in your house, you are clearly a better actor than this Gator. LOL
By Atlanta Gator
February 15, 2007 5:10 PM | Link to this
Guys, thought that you might find the actual RPI formula to be of interest:
RPI = 1/4(Winning Percentage) + 1/2(Opponents’ Average Winning Percentage) + 1/4*(Opponents’ Opponents’ Winning Percentage)
By Max Sizemore
February 15, 2007 5:41 PM | Link to this
Bryan G., that was TREMENDOUS.
By Buck Cochran in the NW
February 15, 2007 8:41 PM | Link to this
Bryan G., that is funny and one reason I hardley ever watch ESPN Sports Center. Did you happen to see them trying to turn that into one of the greatest blow ups ever? He was telling the truth and I didn’t hear a blow up just a really funny way of talking about Div. I football. I just don’t think we can afford to lose another one unless it’s KY. and if that happens we’ll need two wins in the tournament.
By Gen Neyland
February 15, 2007 11:40 PM | Link to this
SEC in the Big Dance…At this juncture, I see 6 in. The stretch run will decide whether it’s 5 to 7 at selection time. We will have our fair share in the NCAA Women’s too…And let us not forget the NIT…
By Dominic
February 16, 2007 8:33 AM | Link to this
tech wood win the sec, even over flarida
By Don Ellis
February 16, 2007 10:32 AM | Link to this
TONY BARNHART…..YOU HAVE ARKANSAS GOING TO THE DANCE….YOU SHOULD BE FIRED FROM YOUR JOB AT THE AJC FOR THE SIMPLE FACT THAT YOU PICKED THEM WITH A 4-7 CONFERENCE RECORD TO DATE. THEY JUST GOT BEAT BY MISS ST. BY 24!!!!!!!
WHAT MAKES YOU THINK THEY SHOULD BE IN THE DANCE???? YOUMUST BE A HOME TOWN HOG
By scooter11
February 16, 2007 10:49 AM | Link to this
Dominic: ‘Wood’ you just go to hell?
By Atlanta Gator
February 16, 2007 11:23 AM | Link to this
Dominic——While an SEC tournament match-up is out of the question (owing to Georgia Tech having quit the SEC), I can assure you that the Gators would like nothing more than to meet the Jackets in the second round of the NCAAs.
Be careful for what you wish, my smack-talking friend … .
By Chip Towers
February 16, 2007 12:00 PM | Link to this
OK, I’m just trying out my new name header. How’s it look? … Somebody asked for Georgia’s remaining schedule, so here it is: Auburn, at Ole Miss, Miss. State, at Kentucky, Tennessee, SEC Tournament in Atlanta. Just win the home games and they’ll probably be all right.
By Chip Towers
February 16, 2007 12:07 PM | Link to this
Another thing. RPI is a good indicator, but we’ve talked extensively recently with members of the selection committee and they said two major misconceptions people have about what they do is they go by RPI and how many teams are selected from any one conference. They insist every team is considered individually without much other reference than who they’ve played, who they’ve beaten, who they’ve lost to and — yes — were there any injuries are circumstances that may have impacted the season.
By Chip Towers
February 16, 2007 12:08 PM | Link to this
Another thing. RPI is a good indicator, but we’ve talked extensively recently with members of the selection committee and they said two major misconceptions people have about what they do is they go by RPI and how many teams are selected from any one conference. They insist every team is considered individually without much other reference than who they’ve played, who they’ve beaten, who they’ve lost to and — yes — were there any injuries are circumstances that may have impacted the season.
By basketball fan FAN
February 16, 2007 1:41 PM | Link to this
WOW AND THEY SAY UGA FANS CAN’T TALK AND TYPE RIGHT LOOK AT DOMINICS COMMENT. WHAT A SHAME.
By scooter11
February 16, 2007 2:02 PM | Link to this
You believe Dumoronic is a UGA fan?
By Brad
February 16, 2007 2:18 PM | Link to this
In the last few years, only 3 or 4 teams made the tournament (with an at large bid from a major conference) without at least 1 of the following: -21 or more total wins -Top 37 in RPI -7+ wins against RPI top 50 -Top 9 in non-conference RPI -Won 8 of last 10 games -Won 10 or more road/neutral site games
With that, Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee are virtual locks based on RPI with RPI’s currently in the top 12. Alabama is currently in with the RPI right now, and will likely stay there with 2-3 wins. Vandy will get in with 3 wins, even if they don’t win in the SEC tourney. Ole Miss gets in with 3 regular season wins and 1 SEC tourney win. Georgia and Arkansas are then the top 2 teams on the bubble, but with RPI’s above 50 right now, they are in trouble. A big win by either is almost certainly necessary. Miss St. probably needs a miracle just shy of winning out in the regular season or going to the SEC tourney finals. Everyone else is out.
There ya go. Just call me an expert.
By Brad
February 16, 2007 2:20 PM | Link to this
Don Ellis: I hope you realize that while you are talking trash to Tony Barnhart for picking Arkansas to make the tourney, Tony Barnhart happens to be on the selection committee.
By Morris O'Brien
February 16, 2007 2:52 PM | Link to this
Any truth to the recent rumor that Fred Gibson has signed or will sign with the Falcons?
By debt consolidation
February 17, 2007 2:09 PM | Link to this
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By g-dawg
February 21, 2007 7:41 AM | Link to this
ON A SIDE NOTE ;; THE NCAA MUST NOW FINE MICHIGAN STATE 25K FOR STORMING THE COURT LAST NITE ????
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