AJC > Sports Thrashers > Blog > Archives > 2009 > February > 05
Thursday, February 5, 2009
More Fun With Numbers
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Recently I’ve been having some fun with numbers and statistics as it relates to the “progress” of the Don Waddell managed Atlanta Thrashers. Last week, I discussed with you how the team compares with the other 29 NHL franchises as it relates to last season’s performance and their progress this year…or lack thereof. Earlier in the week, I shared with you a study on the Thrashers’ overall team defense during their existence of 8-plus years.
Today’s topic simply depicts how the Thrashers have faired compared with the rest of the league since they began play almost a decade ago. Below are the rankings of the 30 NHL teams listed from the most successful team to the least successful since the beginning of the 1999-’00 season. This includes all regular season games that have been played through February 3, 2009…when the Thrashers last played. It lists the overall Points Winning % since October of 1999 as well as the amount of playoff appearances each team has made in the eight complete seasons during this sample.
As was the case with the previous two exercises…the numbers are very un-good if you’re a Thrashers fan.
.693 - Detroit Red Wings (8 playoff appearances)
.631 - New Jersey Devils (8)
.619 - Dallas Stars (7)
.612 - San Jose Sharks (7)
.610 - Montreal Canadiens (4)
.607 - Ottawa Senators (8)
.597 - Colorado Avalanche (7)
.585 - Philadelphia Flyers (7)
.572 - Vancouver Canucks (5)
.562 - Toronto Maple Leafs (5)
.560 - Buffalo Sabres (4)
.559 - Boston Bruins (4)
.541 - St. Louis Blues (5)
.539 - Calgary Flames (4)
.539 - Edmonton Oilers (4)
.533 - Anaheim Ducks (4)
.528 - Carolina Hurricanes (3)
.528 - Minnesota Wild (3)
.527 - Washington Capitals (4)
.523 - Nashville Predators (4)
.516 - New York Rangers (3)
.508 - L.A. Kings (3)
.498 - Phoenix Coyotes (2)
.491 - Pittsburgh Penguins (4)
.485 - Florida Panthers (1)
.484 - Chicago Blackhawks (1)
.479 - Tampa Bay Lightning (4)
.448 - New York Islanders (4)
.436 - Columbus Blue Jackets (0)
.429 - Atlanta Thrashers (1)
Note: Columbus and Minnesota began play in the 2000-’01 season, one year after Atlanta. Nashville began play in the 1998-’99 season, one year before Atlanta.
As you can see, for the most part, the years have not been kind to the Blueland faithful. This is even more apparent when you compare Atlanta’s numbers to the three teams that entered into the league at about the same time as did the Thrashers…the Preds one year before, the Wild and CBJs the year after.
Columbus: True, the Blue Jackets are still yet to even qualify for the playoffs, but they have a better points winning percentage than does Atlanta… and have done so even though they are a year younger. Also, the CBJs are on the upswing of late and are currently in the thick of a playoff race with a record of 24-22-5.
The Thrashers are currently…not.
In the same year that Atlanta qualified for the playoffs with 97 points, Columbus netted 73. Last season the Thrashers fell to 76 points while the CBJs improved to 80. So far this season the Thrashers have 41 after 52 games, (on pace for 65), while the Blue Jackets have 53 points after 51 games, (a pace for 85 points).
So, the two teams seem to be heading in polar opposite directions…and, given those numbers, Atlanta is not the one “heading in the right direction”.
The Wild: Ahhhh yes… Minn-EE-Sooo-TAH. The team that not only qualified for the playoffs in just their third season of play, but advanced to the Western Conference finals that year just for good measure. In seven complete seasons, three times they have seen action after 82 games and are in a position to do so for the fourth time in eight seasons.
And again… they currently own a PW% almost a hundred percentage points higher than Atlanta’s.
Nashville: The Predators only have one more year of play under their belt than do the Thrashers, however they have an overall winning record of .508 in their nine-plus seasons… and .523 since Atlanta kicked things off in ’99. After losing records in each of their initial five seasons, the Preds have qualified for the hunt for Lord Stanley’s Cup in each of the next four years…playing at a .607 PW% clip in those seasons. That averages to 99.5 points since the year prior to the lockout.
Hmmmmm…now THAT sounds like a five-year plan to me.
Also, the high water mark for Atlanta is a .591 PW%. Minnesota and Nashville have played to higher levels twice.
So, given all that…answer me these questions:
Of the five teams that have made it to the post-season two or fewer times since 1999… Phoenix, Atlanta, Chicago, Florida and Columbus…four of them currently hold, or are within a point or two of, a playoff spot in the standings. So obviously, improvement can be seen from some of the teams that not sipped from the post-season waters of late.
But can you guess which one of the five teams mentioned is not in the playoff hunt this season?
Next…if the Blue Jackets are successful in their quest to go to the playoffs for the first time this spring…and if they can muster up enough effort to win just one game while there…there will then be only one franchise in the NHL that has zero playoff wins.
And can you guess which team that would be?
And lastly…of the teams listed above with the ten worst records since 1999…NYR, L.A., PHX, PIT, FLA, CHI, TBL, NYI, CBJ, and ATL…nine of them have come to the conclusion in the last few years that, in order to drastically reverse their losing ways, a change had to be made in the general manager’s office. All have done so since the 1999-’00 season, eight since the lockout year.
So, can anyone guess which would be the one and only team in this group that has… despite the less-than-stellar record of the past decade… chosen to remain with the same GM?
I’ll give you a hint. The answer to all three questions would be the team that has all of 256 wins in 708 regular season games… and 0 in 4 post-season games… since opening day in October of 1999.
