AJC > Sports Thrashers > Blog > Archives > 2009 > January > 23
Friday, January 23, 2009
Signs Of Life
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
At the All Star break, the Atlanta Thrashers find themselves with a record of 17-26-5 for 39 points. That lands them in last place in the Southeast Division, 3 points behind Tampa Bay who have one game in hand, and tied with Ottawa, who have four games in hand, for 14th in the Eastern Conference. Their current points winning percentage of .406 is the NHL’s second worst.
The raw statistical numbers tells a lot in regards to why they find themselves in this position. The 3.56 GA/A is dead last in the league, the 74.2% “effective” penalty kill is better only than Toronto’s 73.2% and they are allowing 32.3 SA/G, which is 27th in the league.
Those are some ugly defensive numbers indeed.
The offensive production paints a slightly better story. The Thrashers are scoring goals at a rate of 2.96 per game…that’s 10th best league-wide and 6th best in the east. Currently, they have a power play that scores goals 20.0% of the time, which that is good enough for the #12 spot in the NHL and 5th in the east. This helps offset the humble 27.8 S/G stat that ranks but 26th in the NHL, tied with Phoenix and Edmonton.
But any way you add it up, we get to 17 wins in 48 games for 39 points. So, we’re destined for a lottery pick position this spring…right?
Um, I dunno.
Let’s look at the statistics during the ten games that have been played in CY2009, shall we?
For the record, Atlanta is 5-5-0 in this month of January. In two of those losses, Florida and Philadelphia, the Thrashers were tied going into or during the third period. Another two of those loses, Tampa Bay and Ottawa, they were within one heading into the third.
Yes, yes…I know…they are still losses. But if they continue at just that pace…say go 17-17-0 the rest of the way… they would finish with 73 points. OK, that’s not gonna win ya anything…but when you consider that the Thrashers have been on pace for something like 62-63 points as recently as 3 weeks ago, that’s improvement.
Also, if they were to simply accomplish that small feat, it would mean that they went from only 29 points in 38 games played during the 2008 part of this season…to 44 points in the 44 games that remained in ’09. Again…nothing to write home about, but it is measurable improvement.
See, to me…given that the playoffs have long been removed from the picture…success for this season is defined by how this team finishes as opposed to how it started.
Since New Years, the Thrashers have scored 34 goals, (3.40 G/G not considering the extra overtime minutes), they have taken 305 shots on goal, (30.5 S/G), and have scored fewer than three goals only once…the 3-2 loss to Ottawa. They have scored four or more goals five times, six if you include the gimmick shootout goal against Vancouver.
Ilya Kovalchuk has had a pretty good 2009 so far. He’s been named captain of his team and has 8 goals & 4 assists to go with a +3 rating in the last ten games. But to me, his play of late goes far beyond simple numbers. He seems pumped…energized…you know, the Kovy we have come to know and love. The team has responded in kind.
One thing is for sure… Kovalchuk has gotten a boost from new linemate Rich Peverley. After gaining no points in his debut versus Ottawa, the Peever has notched 2 goals…including the overtime game-winner against Toronto…and has dispensed half a dozen assists in the next four. He is also a +6 as a Thrasher.
Also, the lower lines have given the team a boost with their physical play of late. This was especially evident in the second period of the Toronto game…sparking Atlanta to rally from 3-0 down after one period.
The only thing I can really nit-pick about the O-fence right now is that the power play has continued to struggle…a very un-good 11.2% in the ten games played in 2009.
Defensively… their penalty kill has been 77.8% effective since the beginning of the year. Still not great…but better than the overall number. Also, they have only allowed 30.9 shots on goal per game in the past ten games. Yes…when you are a Thrashers fan, you can use the word “only” when discussing a 30.9 SA/G stat.
Zach Bogosian’s return from injury has been a boost to the blueline. He’s a +6 since finishing his rehab in Chicago and has netted his first two goals of his NHL career as well as his first pair of assists.
Mathieu Schneider is a +2 for the calendar year so far…including a +7 over his last three games. I know, I know…I rubbed my eyes too when I saw that.
Ron Hainsey is a +2 in CY2009. This is very good news after his -10 December. He seems to be playing more like he was toward the start of the season.
I’ll also mention Peverley in the defensive portion of our discussion. He is playing the best two-way game in a Thrashers uniform since…since…since I don’t now when. Defensively, he plays a very responsible game. Couple that with his offensive contribution and I say we got ourselves a winner off the waiver wire!
In Kari Lehtonen’s last five starts, he has a .932 SV% and his GAA has dipped to 3.19…down from 3.44 when he returned from his back injury last month. His 29-save shutout in New Jersey was a beaut…as was his 9 for 9 performance in relief of Moose against the Leafs that helped the winning cause.
Consistency is still the key for Kari…however, he’s currently riding a 5-game streak in which he’s given up 3 or fewer goals. Three goal outings for keepers aren’t really anything to shout about…but when your O-fense is kicking in over three per game, that’s at least giving your skaters a chance to win.
The 33 goals that have been scored since New Years is still a troubling figure, though
This Thrashers team still has a ways to go to before arriving at respectability in the standings, but so far in this new year of 2009, there seems to be some signs of life from this group.
Puck Daddy’s Blog Takes On A Southern Drawl, Ya’ll
Here is a recent post by Puck Daddy regarding the likelihood of someone other than the eventual division winner gaining a playoff birth from the Southeast Division. I think he’s got a point regarding Florida’s chances.
Regarding the Thrashers…whom he predicts will fall short of a post-season bid, (DUH5)…here is a portion of what he has to say about our home team:
“There will be a level of intrigue approaching the deadline, as the Thrashers dangle some players for picks. Or maybe Don Waddell will attempt some Hail-Mary, reverse-Hossa trade to appease Ilya Kovalchuk before, hopefully for Thrash fans, he’s canned this summer”.
