AJC > Sports Thrashers > Blog > Archives > 2009 > January > 19
Monday, January 19, 2009
In Celebration Of Dreams
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Across the nation today we celebrate the life, meaning and significance of the Rev. Dr. Marin Luther King, Jr., born Jan. 15, 1929 and taken from us on April 4, 1968.
I’m quite certain that you will be able to see and/or listen to replays of his “I have a dream” speech in several places. If you have never before experienced it in it’s entirety, do yourself a favor and do so today. Here is a text form of it as well.
Tomorrow, our nation will rise together in honor of a Barack Obama, who has ascended to the most powerful office in the world due in part to not only his personal drive, ambition, deeds and determination…but also upon the shoulders of Dr. King.
The dream of being able to witness first-hand the swearing-in of a person of color to the office of POTUS is something that countless millions thought they would never live to see.
Anyone who has frequented this forum or knows me personally will find it as no great surprise that the man that will transcend into the office of President of the United States at noon Tuesday is not the man that I cast a vote for last November 4th. However tomorrow… that does not matter. I will join in celebration of the pageantry and dignity that is the peaceful passing of the Presidential baton from one U.S. citizen to another. And I will stand with him and offer up my prayers for him while he assumes the office as I have done for President Bush, Clinton, George H. W. Bush, and Reagan before him.
For one brief, fleeting moment we can be just Americans…free of the hyphenated qualifiers and political party partisanship that serve only to separate and divide us…and rejoice in who we are, where we’ve come and the hope of what we still have the ability to become…together.
And So, In The Spirit Of Dreams…
Getting back to the Atlanta Thrashers… this past weekend we saw quite possibly the most inspired and exciting play from our team in years. True, it is but two games out of 82 and none of what we experienced in those games guarantees future results in the same fashion.
However, let’s take this time to discuss just what it would take in order for this team to do the unthinkable…making the playoffs. It’s a near impossibility, I will admit…and I highly doubt it is going to be achieved this season. But if we see four, five…six more games like the last two over the course of the next couple weeks… it becomes less impossible.
I’ve often used the benchmark of 94 points as a playoff target. But as we look at the standing today, the Pittsburgh Penguins currently occupy the 8th and final playoff spot in the east. Their 50 points earned in 47 games played puts them on a pace for 87 for the season. However, the Florida Panthers, who are in 9th place in the east, have 49 points in only 44 games played…a pace that would net them 91 points. To me, that puts them in the driver’s seat for that final playoff spot and not the Pens.
So, using 91 points as the new benchmark, what would it take for the Thrashers to reach that mountaintop?
Well…that would mean playing to a level far above that which they have achieved this season…um, the past couple seasons…um…OK, ever!
The Thrashers need 54 points over the next 36 games to get to 91 points. That’s playing at a clip of 27-9-0 or 26-8-2 from here on out. 54 points in 36 games is a points winning percentage of .750.
To put a .750 PW% in perspective…so far this year, San Jose has a .807 PW%, Boston has a .778 PW% and Detroit has a .756 PW%. So, all Atlanta needs to do is be as good as the defending Stanley Cup champion Detroit Red Wings.
Impossible? No.
Probable? Eh…doubtful.
Now, the question is…would you rather see this team make a run of such improbable proportion and just come up short…say, finish something like 40-36-6 for 86 points but provide three months of exciting, inspired, ever-improving hockey for us…or would you rather see them falter down the stretch, playing like they have for the vast majority of the first half of the season and “earn” more ping-pong balls in the attempt to gain the #1 draft pick?
I’ll tell you right now that given the choice between the two…I pick the former.
I know…there are many out there that are already picking up their cyber-bricks to throw at me for simply stating that I would rather us not “win” the great Tavares Sweepstakes. Certainly if the Thrashers do finish bad enough to draft him, he would be a great player to have. A nice consolation gift, if you will.
But right now, I’m more concerned about another player…Ilya Kovalchuk. I think priority #1 for this organ-I-zation is to sign the captain long-term and keep his talents right here in Atlanta. And I do not think that it helps our chances if the team is coming off two consecutive terrible season’s and the “hope” for this team comes in the form of a 19-year old “promise” and the prospect of being competitive 2 or 3 years down the road…maybe.
Ilya will turn 26 on April 15 and his prime playing days are now…not 2 or 3 years down the road and he needs to be…desires to be…with a team that is ascending to prominence now. He has seen promising teammates come and go through his locker room the entirety of his career. Every time a Savard or Hossa comes…then goes…it becomes more and more difficult to swallow the line of, “But if we just get this player or that player…the team will be so much better”.
Look at the Tampa Bay Lightning…they won the Steven Stamkos Sweepstakes last spring. There record now is…what…14-21-10 and the rookie has 5 goals and 12 assists to go with a -9 in 43 games. The coach that was blessed with having Stamkos, Barry Melrose, didn’t even make it to Thanksgiving before getting the ax. The Bolts have scored 112 goals so far this season…only Minnesota, L.A., Nashville and Ottawa have scored fewer.
Drafting #1 does not always equal success anytime soon.
Kovy needs to see what we need to see…improvement and winning right now. Yes, even with this current configuration. Besides, have you seen the look on his face the past few games as he’s been paired up with new Thrashers’ phenom Rich Peverley as well and Colby Armstrong? Maybe the success of the past few games won’t last the rest of the season. But maybe…just maybe…it can.
How many of us thought a week ago the signing Peverley was anything more than collecting another team’s cast-off?
Regardless…I firmly believe that if this Thrashers team “drives” toward the top of the draft order…even if it does luck out and wins the Tavares Sweepstakes…the hopes of retaining the services of Ilya Kovalchuk are diminished…not advanced. And what this team does over the course of the next 36 games will have a greater impact on Kovy’s future here than anything that might happen on draft night this summer.
And re-signing Ilya Kovalchuk > drafting John Tavares.
