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Thursday, January 8, 2009
High SA/G = High GAA…Really?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Logic would dictate that the more pucks that get fired at the net…the higher the chances are of goals being scored, (DUH4). So, when one looks at the Thrashers league-worst 3.63 GAA, it’s not a far stretch to link it to the abysmal 32.8 SA/G stat.
But…is it really just that simple?
Well, looking at the NHL team stats, we see that there are two teams with higher SA/G than the Thrashers have. The Tampa Bay Lightning give up shots to the tune of 32.9 per game and the Florida Panthers do so at a shocking 34.6 rate. Must have something to do with all that heat and humidity down there, eh? Anyway, so… logic dictates that their high shots against totals must equate to a high goals against stat as well, right?
Not quite.
See, while the Bolts allow the second most shots against per game in the league, they only give up 2.92 goals per game…that is 21st in the NHL. The Panthers? Well, true they give up more shots than anyone else but they allow a mere 2.72 goals per game. That’s the 11th best GAA stat in the league.
So…what gives?
We look no further than the men ‘tween the pipes here. First, the Thrashers’ keepers…
Kari Lehtonen: 4-10-2 with a 3.37 GAA and .902 SV%.
Johan Hedberg: 6-7-3 with a 3.58 GAA and .888 SV%.
Ondrej Pavelec: 3-6-0 with a 3.55 GAA and .884 SV%.
The high goals against number isn’t surprising, especially given how many shots that they face…but what matters here is the saves percentage.
Case in point, let’s now take a look at the men that man the nets down in the Sunshine State… shall we?
Mike Smith… who just recently turned away 27 of 28 Thrashers shots last Sunday in Tampa Bay’s 4-1 win in Atlanta… is currently 9-12-1 with a 2.53 GAA and a .919 SV%. Same losing record as Atlanta’s goalkeeping trio, but the amount of goals allowed is a good three quarters of a point lower than Kari’s and more than one whole point better than Moose and Opie’s. This is caused by his saves percentage being 0.17% better than Kari’s, 0.31% and 0.35% better than Pavelec’s.
Mosey on down the Tamiami Trail to Sunrise, Florida and we find Tomas Vokoun sporting a 9-12-1 record with a 2.80 GAA and .916 SV%. He’s split time with Craig Anderson who is a very impressive 9-4-5 with a low 2.35 GAA and impressive .933 SV%. While Vokoun’s numbers are good, take a look at Anderson’s…the SV% is .031 better than Kari’s and his GAA is 1.02 goals better. In fact, prior to allowing five goals on forty-five shots in Montreal last Sunday, he was sporting a 2.20 GAA.
Hmmmm…so, even though these goalies see lots-o-rubber flying in their faces, as do the Thrashers goalies, they seem to have the ability to turn away a considerable amount more of the shots than do the guys in the Thrashers’ net.
Thus…more shots being saved by the goalie equates to a lower GAA and, therefore, more games that his team has a chance to be victorious in, (DUH5). This is specifically true in the case of the Florida Panthers who are only 19th in the league in scoring, only netting 2.65 per game, but are 18-16-6 on the season and only three points out of a playoff birth.
In Tampa Bay’s case, true their record is only 11-18-10…but they only score goals at a 2.38 per game clip, 28th in the league. However, the solid work by Smith in the Lighting goal has helped them to come out of a game pointless in only 18 of 39 games.
Which brings us back to Atlanta. That all three goalies have a GAA well over three can be linked directly to a pedestrian at best saves percentages. The amount of shots that they face certainly do not help matters at all…but, as we can see, isn’t totally to blame for the high number of goals scored on them. It also contributes greatly to the Gawd-awful, league-worst 72.2% “effective” penalty kill.
When we look back on the amount of one-goal losses…and games in which empty netters accounted for two-goal margin losses…the difference between saving 88 or 90-ish% percent of the shots faced and 91 or 93-ish% of the shots equates to one or two goals here and there.
And so many times this season, that has been the difference between a win and yet another close loss.
