AJC > Sports Thrashers > Blog > Archives > 2008 > December > 29
Monday, December 29, 2008
The Two “Fenses” And ‘Tween The Pipes
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
We’re almost halfway though the season…believe it or not…so let’s take a gander at the three main aspects of this Thrashers team thus far…the two “fenses”…O-fense and D-fense…and the men ‘tween the pipes.
The O-Fense
For all that hasn’t worked out for the Thrashers and John Anderson this season, there is one aspect of the team that has held it’s own so far…Anderson’s O-fence.
Going into Tuesday’s game in Toronto, Atlanta has 106 goals scored on the season after 36 games…a GAA that equates to 2.92, which is 11th best in the NHL. Last season, that stat was 2.52…22nd in the league.
Scoring goals at a this clip would net the Thrashers 240-something for year…the 246 goals achieved two seasons ago helped win the Southeast division.
The power play has been effective as well. Atlanta owns the league’s 10th best power play percentage…20.5. Though the Thrashers went 0-5 on the man advantage Sunday against Boston they went a perfect 3 for 3 in Saturday’s 5-4 loss to Carolina.
Atlanta’s big O has been led by Ilya Kovalchuk’s 35 points, 11 goals and 24 assists. No surprise there as that was the case last year as well. However, Slava Kozlov is following last year’s disappointing 17-goal, 41-point performance with 15 goals and 34 points, (which, for what it’s worth, is exactly the same point total as Marian Hossa). Add in Todd White’s 12 goals and 32 points and Bryan Little’s team-leading 18 goals and 30 points with Defenseman Ron Hainsey’s 5 goals and 20 points…and you have yourself a fairly balanced attack.
Really, the only negative I can find statistically for the Atlanta attack is the 27.1 S/G, which is higher only than Pittsburgh’s 27.0 S/G…but the amount of goals being scored on those shots tends to mask over it.
So, if John Anderson’s O-Fensive system is indeed being productive, just what is the cause for the 12-20-4 record so far? Well, that brings us next to…
The D-fense
Well, this defense has indeed allowed opponents an average of 32.4 shots on goal…which is actually down from last season’s league-worst 33.9. And the penalty kill is a putrid 73.5% “effective”, despite holding the Bruins to 0-5 on the power play Sunday.
But the real ugly number here is the 132 goals scored in only 36 games. If continued over the course of the season…that works out to an expansion team worthy 301 goals. Last season the Thrashers 3.24 GAA was dead last in the league. This season it’s 3.67.
Un-good!
But as I look at the individual players on this Thrashers’ defense…the only one that I really think needs to go is Garnet Exelby, (0 goals, 4 assist -6). Sure, Mathieu Schneider and his -9 hasn’t been everything we had hoped for…but he can still be a good fit on the third line and a huge asset to the development of young blueliners like Zach Bogosian and Nathan Oystrick.
Nic Havelid’s +4 ties Marty Reasoner for the team high in that stat and has chipped in with a goal and 8 helpers.
Toby Enstrom is a +2 and shares Havelid’s point production.
Ron Hainsey’s -15 is not a pleasant stat…but his 5 goals and 20 points helps to offset it and I think the +/- ratio is more the result of the team as a whole than his individual play.
Nathan Oystrick…done absolutely nothing but impress since his call up.
Boris Valabik…well the PIMs are a concern, but his -2 and five points merits his role as one of the three players that make up the third line defense.
Atlanta as a whole does not play solid team defense…and that means all five guys, not just the back two. Even so, given that the shots per games stat is down from last year, what then accounts for the fact that the Thrashers are surrendering goals at a higher rate than last season?
Well, that question takes to…
‘Tween The Pipes
Going into the game against the Maple Leafs on Tuesday, the goalie stats are such:
Kari Lehtonen - 3-7-2: 3.42 GAA and .903 SV%
Johan Hedberg - 6-7-2: 3.56 GAA and .886 SV%
Ondrej Pavelec - 3-6-0 3.55 GAA and .884 SV%
First off, look at the GAA for the three. Talk about “consistency”…only .14 points separate the three. But to me, the save percentages tell the story. The average of the three comes to only .891. Kari’s .903 is good, but not “great”. However, Moose and Opie’s 880-something numbers are butt-ugly.
Have there been lots of shots taken against the Atlanta goalies? Oh yeah…sure, sure their has been. And how many times have we lamented how we would love to see how well our goalies would do if they just didn’t have to face 30+ shots each game.
However, if I may return to the D-fense for a moment, there has been a fairly decent trend recently. In the seven games played since December 12th’s 7-3 loss to Boston…the Thrasher defense held their opposition to less than 30 SOG in six of the last nine games.
Unfortunately, they’ve only won two of those six games while surrendering 22 goals.
Whenever there is a situation in which a defense allows an average of 26.5 shots on goal in any given six games, but the opposition scores an average of 3.67 goals in those games…there is but one place to look and that’s between the pipes. Same is true when your defense holds the opposition under 30 shots twelve times, but only has 13 points to show for it… as has been the case for Atlanta’s defense this season.
Overall, in the 36 games played so far, Atlanta keepers have held the opposition to fewer than three goals but seven times.
Lehtonen has faced an average of 36.25 shots in his 12 starts…however, the two times he faced fewer than 30 shots, he allowed Min-EE-soh-tah to score 4 in a 4-2 loss and then lost 2-1 to Boston last Sunday. In the five games he has face 33 or less, he’s but 1-4 allowing 18 goals. In the one win, a 3-2 shootout win against Buffalo, he saw 30 shots in 65 minutes and allowed the Sabres to tie the score with 3:08 left in the third after bobbling the puck in his glove which led to Jason Pominville’s rebound goal.
Ondrej Pavelec can continue for now to use the excuse that he’s still not “ready” to handle the starting job just yet…as the seven losses in his last eight starts will attest. But even so, in his last two losses before being thrown back to the Wolves, he allowed 8 goals on but 18 shots. In the start against Boston back on the 12th, he allowed three on the first four he faced in the opening 8:41…Moose then allowed the first one he saw slip by as well that game. Boston scored 7 on only 25 shots.
Uber-un-good!
In Opie’s last start, Pittsburgh scored five times on thirteen shots before Hedberg again came in to relieve him. The Pens scored twice in the opening 9:40 of the game and only took 6 shots in the first period.
As for Moose, well…he’s the back up. And as such, he has not performed “overly” un-good. But when your “back up” leads in win %… and is the only keeper that can win consistently when the D allows less than 30 SOG, (3-1-1)…there’s a problem.
Oh, and going back to the nasty penalty kill stat…what’s that only saying about who the best penalty killer on the ice should be? Well, recently the Falconer posted this interesting piece asking just who is to blame for the poor PK of the Thrashers…the D or the goalies? I’m tending to lean toward the net minders here.
Anyway…going into the season I felt that one of the strongest assets the Thrashers had going for them was in goal. At the same time, like so many others, I thought the O-fense was going to struggle. We looked at the forward lines and worried about where the goals were going to come from.
Turns out…quite the opposite has been true so far.
