AJC > Sports Thrashers > Blog > Archives > 2008 > December > 22 > Entry
DEL.ICIO.USThe Reason For The Season
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Mike Knobler recently asked the question… how many of the games that will be played over the holidays will the Thrashers need to win in order to work their way back into playoff contention?
Well Mike, since ya asked….
First off…let me state for the record that I do not expect this Thrashers team to make the playoff. However, before you call me Scrooge…remember, before the season began I predicted Atlanta would net 86 points, finish third in the Southeast Division and eleventh in the East. I’ve never expected this team would compete for post-season play and to date they haven’t come close to proving me…and many other fans…wrong.
However, seeing that it is the Christmas season…and that the whole reason for the hockey season is to make the playoffs… I’m willing to put aside my worldly doubts and “Bah-humbug” demeanor on this issue and consider the possibility of “A Miracle on Centennial Olympic Park Drive” as well as what it’ll take to make it happen…at least in a mathematical and statistical manner.
For the Thrashers, their “star in the east” to look toward as their guide is 94 points. I’ve prophesized my belief in the past that it’ll take a minimum of that to get in as an 8 seed. If one can get in with less, great…but 94 is my number. Atlanta has 26 after 32 games. That means they need 68 points over the remaining 50 games. That would require that Atlanta go something like 32-14-4, a points winning percentage of .680…which is playing at just about the same level that the Chicago Blackhawks have played so far this season…18-6-7 after 31 games.
That’s quite a long distance between the way they have played so far and where they need to be, I’ll admit. But, as with all such journeys, to make such a trek begins with the first initial steps. And those steps would have to begin now.
If you take a look at the schedule… including last Saturday’s opponent, Tampa Bay…the Thrashers will play eight of nine games over the holidays against teams that did not qualify for the playoffs last season. This is significant because their record against such opponents so far this year is 9-2-2. In fact, five of Atlanta’s overall eleven wins this year have come against the three teams they will play this week…Toronto, the Islanders and Carolina. And they have outscored those teams 23-11 in those five games.
So, if there is a move that is going to be made…now is the time.
If…IF…the Thrashers are going to make a move to compete for the playoffs, in my opinion they have to go at least 7-2 over these nine games to put themselves at 17-19-4 for 38 points after 40 games played. Of course, they helped get such a crusade off to a good start with the 4-3 win over the Bolts this past weekend…so they need to take 6 of the next 8 to climb back into it.
Now, lets us not forget that inside this window of games are dates with the Beasts of the East, Boston… as well as the18-12-3 Vancouver Canucks. Also, even though Atlanta is 2-0-0 against them, Carolina is 15-13-5 overall. So it isn’t as though we’ve got a bunch of creampuffs on the agenda.
But, let’s just say…for grins and giggles…that the Thrashers do indeed accomplish this mission. 38 points after 40 games is exactly one point off last season’s pace of 39 after 40 played. And, as you’ll recall, they were still in the race at that point and even worked their way to a record of 29-27-4 for 62 points after 60 games, which placed them atop the division lead…even if just for a day.
However, going back to the “star in the east” guide of 94 points needed for a playoff birth, having 38 points after 40 games means that the Thrashers would still need 56 points over the remaining 42 games to get to their destination. That would mean Atlanta would need to play to a record of something like 26-12-4 down the stretch.
I know…still a pretty long camel ride. But again…to even set themselves up for the possibility of such a scenario is to get at least 12 points out of the next 8 games before going into the January 6 game in Pittsburgh to take on the Penguins and Cindy “The Crotch” Crosby.
So, if you are among those of us who believe that nothing short of divine intervention is needed in order to see this year’s version of the Thrashers compete in The Great Stanley Cup Tournament…I’d say you’re not being as much a “Scrooge” as you are simply a “realist”.
But I’m sure that there are still some in our number that believe such a miraculous run is possible from our Thrashers over the next few months … of course, I think our community Sage would refer to those group of believers as “the Blueland sheep abiding in the field”. However if such a miracle is to occur in our… Little Town of At-lan-ta…the time to see it begin is now, during the Christmas season.
But then…aren’t “miracles” the reason for this season in the first place?
Comments
Commenting is now closed for this entry.
By Buzilla in CT
December 22, 2008 12:28 PM | Link to this
first?
By Brendan
December 22, 2008 12:49 PM | Link to this
Enjoy the game tonight. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. I’m back on the 27th. Cheers!
By polskidawg
December 22, 2008 12:58 PM | Link to this
RH - I’m with you - the Thrash are not going to make the playoffs; in fact, I suggested 78 points in October and I still believe that is very likely.
Why 78 versus 62ish? Partly based on your observation today, that the next few weeks seem favorable, and the temporary return of the organization’s best player in goal.
I’m hopefully that the return of Bogosian, the continued improvement of the team’s understanding of Anderson;s “system”, and improved defensive scoring will result in a less offensive record in the second half.
By Smoothie
December 22, 2008 1:26 PM | Link to this
7-2 or 6-2-1 is doable in my opinion with stellar play from Karppa and a couple of strong fill-ins on back 2 backs by Moose.
However, I think the Thrashers need to make a few adjustments in order to bolster their hopes as follows:
1) Put XLB on IR…we don’t need him as long as Bogey and Boris are available 2) Cut or trade EC…personally I think he might have value in a swap with Minny in which they “loan” us Gaborik for a few months in return for EC, Williams and a middle rounder. 3) Pick up Jussi Jokinen to play third line LW with Perrin (C) and Army (RW). I’ll explain more down below. 4) Shake up the lines again including a promotion for Crabb and a return to the 4th line for Thorby. 5) Give Toby, Hainsey, Oyster & hopefully Bogey the bulk of the ice time. Havelid & Schneids need to play closer to 16-18 to have something left for the 2nd half.
Lines:
Kovy — Marty — Crabb (unless Gaborik arrives in a trade for Willy & EC)**
**If Gabby becomes a Thrasher, move Little up to the first line for a line of blazing speed and skill. Otherwise, keep the Little White Russian line intact.
Jussi — Perrin — Army (this line would provides a nice blend of moxy, hustle and scrappiness; Jokinen was a great 2-way player in Dallas and can help bolster our 3rd line which MUST become more of a shut down defensive-minded line if the Thrashers are going to win more often)
Greek God Line (or Crabb for Boults) — Slater is playing very well and there’s no reason this line can’t continue to provide some inspired play and energy for 8-10 mins / night. Crabb has earned a permanent stay visa for the duration.
Penalty Kill — THIS MUST IMPROVE BIG TIME FOR THE THRASHERS TO WIN CONSISTENTLY
1st Unit: Hainsey & Valabik (Havelid when BV is in box) with Jokinen & Reasoner
2nd Unit: Oystrick & Schneider (some Bogey when necc) with Perrin, Army or Slater — Perrin needs to have another speedy winger out there who can streak to the net when he works his PK magic in the neutral zone…think last year w/ Hossa and or Dupuis
POWER Play: ALSO NEEDS BIG IMPROVEMENT BUT ONLY THROUGH BETTER MOVEMENT WITHOUT THE PUCK AND FEWER ONE-TIMERS BY KOVY
1st Unit: Hainsey & Kovy (but move him around) with Kozzy at right circle, White on red line and a roaming Enstrom who has the stick skills of a forward and an accurate shot. Think back door and high slot oppty for Tobias while teams fixate on Kovalchuk’s one timer.
2nd Unit: Schneider & Oyster with Little down low on the left side, Kovy at left circle and a roaming Marty Reasoner. Yes, I said Marty freakin’ Reasoner! He has an accurate shot, is not afraid to go to the net for screens and will make the smart pass to an open teammate.
I’m not arrogant enough to think that these are the only moves to make this team more successful, but after what we’ve seen so far, we have nothing left to lose. Williams will be trade fodder at the deadline so why not move him now for Gaborik & EC? Then Gabby can be your roaming presence on the 1st PP unit. That allows you to make more diagonal passes to free up point shots for Hainsey and Enstrom. Who would stop our top two lines consistently if you have Gabby, Kovy & Little flying up and down the ice. Move Reasoner to C the 2nd line for Kozzy and White on the RW and you still have a great 2-way line capable of tickiling the twine regularly.
Minnesota knows they can’t re-sign Gabby so perhaps they would rather make a deal now that will bring them offense. Problem is those two players don’t really fit their scheme so we might have to float Reasoner (UFA) and Perrin to tempt them enough. Then we would need Crabb and say Sterling to come up and stick for the duration of the season. Why not??
By sisu
December 22, 2008 1:51 PM | Link to this
Only issue with the Jokinen is that he cleared waivers…
By Smoothie
December 22, 2008 2:14 PM | Link to this
Yeah, thanks for pointing that out sisu. I was wondering why I couldn’t find anything on the TBL website about it. Didn’t realize he went on waivers last week to make room for the other Kari (Ramo) the Goalie. I would still cut bait with EC if you can’t trade him in January and bring up a kid from CHI for an audition. We need more heart, not unfulfilled potential and expectations.
By Standing math
December 22, 2008 2:51 PM | Link to this
Speculation is meaningless. facts are these. We are 10 points out of the 8th seed with 50 games to play. We have a game in hand on the 8th seeded team today. Using a baseball analogy, that’s 5 games out with a game in hand with 50 to play. Lot’s of hockey left. EVERY TEAM in the LEAGUE is STILL IN IT.
Lots of teams start fast and fade and vice versa.
By standing math
December 22, 2008 3:11 PM | Link to this
stand corrected. 11 points behind with 2 games in hand. Win the games in hand that’s 7 points. 3 and a half games with 50 to go. Its not over.
By R. Stroz
December 22, 2008 3:15 PM | Link to this
We’re screwed tonight, Buzilla was first.
By ben
December 22, 2008 3:27 PM | Link to this
standing math
its 5 games out on june 1st
they have got to start surprizing people w/ wins.
By Buzilla in CT
December 22, 2008 3:36 PM | Link to this
I am not a jinx!!!
By Alan
December 22, 2008 3:46 PM | Link to this
Just FYI, but the Post-Gazette’s Penguins blog just got wind of the Crosby on Valabik story, and posted a blog about it today.
By Rawhide
December 22, 2008 3:54 PM | Link to this
Standing math - I hear ya…and I salute your optimism. I hope it’s rewarded come April.
However…To continue with your baseball analogy…being 5-games out is one thing. But when 4 teams are ahead of you, then that means you have to outplay them all. One could slip…but all of them?
Right now Carolina holds the eighth spot in the east with 37 points. Then there is Buffalo…then Florida…then Toronto…then Atlanta. This means the Thrashers have to play at a much higher level then they have been AND all four of those teams have to slump the rest of the way.
Possible? Yes.
Likely? eh…
However…talk to me after the next 6 games. If the Thrashers continue their winning ways against “non-playoff” teams from last spring…then we gotta chance. But even then, they have to start winning more against the upper-tier teams.
So far, there record against playoff-qualifiers from last season…2-15-2.
By LAC
December 22, 2008 5:30 PM | Link to this
I was stuck watching the Atlanta broadcast through NHL Center Ice, and because their broadcast is horrible (probably worse than Versus), I re-watched this scrum transpire multiple times to figure out what happened.
So pittsburgh “fans” quote… They just cannot see what Cindy did wrong, but we DO need better announcers, JP’s awful and DE, well no better fit than Mr.Homeboy !
I guess these pittsburgh fans have to watch The Zappruter film of 11/22/63 over and over to figure out that as well What a bunch of LOSERS !
By HookyBob
December 22, 2008 5:49 PM | Link to this
Alan:* What a treat to see Crosby’s actions placed before the Penguins fans. Interestingly, for the most part, they are not supporting the “chosen one”. My hat goes off to the Penguin fans. Come to think of it My hat goes off to you, Alan. Great job on getting it out there.
I have more than a bit of anticipation for the next meeting of these teams. I sure wish it was here rather than there.
Perhaps we can reach out to fans of other teams blogs with our “Replace Waddell” dilema? Wouldn’t it be good to see disparaging signs about Waddell at our away games.
As for us making the play-offs,..I’m in lockstep with Rawhide, Stroz, Bob, Brendan, and the rest of the blogging braintrust on this one. 10 points out at Christmas is like being 300 meters behind in a metric mile. However, if Kari can stay healthy, I can see us finishing in the top 10 (in the east). Tell me again why would we want that?
Here’s hoping the boys bring their “A game” tonight. Joey, hope you get a Gordie Howe hat trick. We need a few more like you.
By Alan
December 22, 2008 6:07 PM | Link to this
Hooky - Honestly, I can’t take credit for getting the Crosby thing out there. Seth seems to read all the news from all the different markets. I believe he saw it yesterday, if I remember his updates correctly.
All I did was comment to him about the Atlanta situation regarding the empty seats.
:]
By HookyBob
December 22, 2008 6:17 PM | Link to this
Alan: What a treat to see Croby’s actions placed before the Penguin fans. Interestingly, most are down on him for it. My hat goes off the those fans. Come to think of it My hat goes off you, Alan. Great way to get that out in front of hockey fans.
Maybe we can reach out to other team’s bloggers about our GM dilema. Wouldn’t be a treat to see Fire Waddell signs at our away games. That would be as sweet as seeing a hat on the ice after an away game hat trick by one of our guys.
I must say I have more than a bit of anticiption for the next Penuins - Thrashers meeting. I wish it was here rather than there though. Perhaps Sid has been shamed into going “mano y mano” with Boris. Slim chance,…I know.
As for the Thrashers making the play-offs I am in lockstep with Rawhide, Stroz, Bob, Brendan and most of the blogging braintrust. Being 10 points (1/3rd of our current points) out at Christmas is like being 300 meters back in a metric mile race. Of course if Kari can stay healthy maybe we could break the top 10 in the east. Tell me again why we would want that.
Go Blue, bring your A-game tonight. Joey,…here’s hoping you get a Gordie Howe hat trick against the Leafs.” You are setting a great example. We need a few more like you.
By ranallo10 (in AT)
December 22, 2008 6:30 PM | Link to this
That Bob, he’s so Hooky.
I might stay up for this game…let’s hope Kovalchuk plays with the same passion he did in Toronto.
By Russian
December 22, 2008 8:43 PM | Link to this
How can you win game if you shoot only 12 times??? What is a LOOSERs. FIRE WADDELL
By glovesave29
December 22, 2008 9:44 PM | Link to this
This from the Toronto Sun…
Thrashers-Wild blockbuster could be in the works. Denials will come from Thrashers GM Don Waddell and Wild counterpart Doug Risebrough (they always do), but the whisper around the NHL is that those teams have been discussing a huge deal involving superstar forwards Marian Gaborik and Ilya Kovalchuk. Risebrough has been shopping Gaborik all season, but it has been tough to find a taker because of his injury history. The talk is the Thrashers might have an interest if they can get Gaborik signed to a long-term contract, but the asking price would be high. There’s a belief the sides have been talking about sending Gaborik and Kim Johnsson to the Thrashers in exchange for Kovalchuk and Colby Armstrong. It’s believed Waddell was in L.A. last week to see the Wild play the Kings and Ducks.
Toronto Sun
If DW pulls the trigger on this one, not only should he be fired, but also deported to Sweden (although he claims he is not from there).
By HookyBob
December 22, 2008 10:28 PM | Link to this
I thought a player had to play defense to be a Minnesota Wild. Correct me if I’m wrong but,…….why would they want Ilya?
By jason
December 22, 2008 10:52 PM | Link to this
It was somewhat therapeutic to chant “Fi-re Wad-dell!” for the last minute of the game. It was disheartening during the last 20 seconds when Thrash was downstairs hitting his drum at the opposite time of the chanters trying to break it up.
By Nikita
December 22, 2008 11:00 PM | Link to this
Damn, am I angry. Seriously, I am completely behind the team as long as they bother to show up. They didn’t even come close tonight. That was one of the worst first periods that I have ever heard.
By R. Stroz
December 22, 2008 11:04 PM | Link to this
jason - Thanks for joining in the chant. I tried to start the chant about 10 times earlier in the game.
Sage - Before you make a sheep reference, my ticket was FREE and I purchased NOTHING at the game.
To all those participating in the FIRE WADDELL chant at the end of the game, thank you and lets keep the pressure on.
By jason
December 22, 2008 11:19 PM | Link to this
R. Stroz, where were you sitting? The sound may carry a bit better from 318 A than it does from where you were at. I know I could hear a few people join me for the last minute in the upper endzone.
By R. Stroz
December 22, 2008 11:28 PM | Link to this
jason - I was in Section 117. I heard the chant clear as day coming from my left. Your section was to my left. I couldn’t tell if the chant was coming from the lower level, the upper level, or both. Well Done.
By jason
December 23, 2008 12:04 AM | Link to this
Thanks. Kinda sad that they had to keep Thrash out there with his little drum to try and break up the chant by screwing up the timing of the claps.
From now on, I think the last minute of every period where we’re losing, it’s time for the chant. Or, just do it during the last minute of the game and after the announcement of every opposition goal that puts us behind. If we chant winning 3-1 (ha!) no one would get the reason behind the chant.
By R. Stroz
December 23, 2008 12:17 AM | Link to this
From now on, I think the last minute of every period where we’re losing, it’s time for the chant.
GREAT IDEA
Ok, everyone join in.
By stendec
December 23, 2008 12:24 AM | Link to this
Hi Rawhide. Know this is out of character. Just wanted to wish you Merry Christmas. You do a nice job. Will never agree with you that (CENSORED) has any talent whatsoever. Let alone enough to be an NHL netminder! Hope one day you realize he is a Jeff George or Chris Miller on ice. Deluded by what he wrongly perceives to be talent. **Should we allow him 10 more years to develop? Oh well. The very best to you and yours at this special time of the year my friend.
By Tony C.
December 23, 2008 1:32 AM | Link to this
Buzzilla
Dude.
Hate to say it, buuuuuut…
By Tony C.
December 23, 2008 1:52 AM | Link to this
oh yeah, FIRE WADDELL.
And if he trades #17 for Gaborik(?!!?), well I would hope he also has gotten himself a plane out of town-like immediately.
Any weekend game yall want somebody loud for the chant, lemme know.
By Sharon
December 23, 2008 3:16 AM | Link to this
Well, if I ever go to another Thrashers game, I’d be proud to join ya’ll in the Fire Waddell chant. Hell, I’ll even make a sign (calligraphy, glitter pens, bubble letters, whatever, haha).
Conjecturing about the playoffs is kinda like watching Titanic and hoping for the best. We all know that boat ends up at the bottom of the standings… uhhh, the ocean. It’s no wonder so many people jumped ship.
Happy Holidays to Rawhide and the readers!
By ranallo10 (in AT)
December 23, 2008 4:14 AM | Link to this
Well, that sucked. I blame the loss on Buzilla but not because of his obvious jinx on this team, but because he continues said jinx with “first?”.
When will you learn?
By Rawhide
December 23, 2008 8:38 AM | Link to this
stendec - Thank you…and a very Merry Christmas to you as well!
Sharon - The protest chant will surely grow louder and louder. Thanks for your holiday wishes and I hope you and yours the same!
By Smoothie
December 23, 2008 11:35 AM | Link to this
jason and RStroz — I was in 318, row G with my GF (red Santa hats) and I joined in the “Fire Waddell” chant which began when the nice chaps behind us in row H began the chant in earnest. I would have kept going despite the drum, but I didn’t want to completely spoil my GF’s burgeoning interest in hockey. Too bad the Thrashers didn’t actually play what is commonly referred to as hockey last night…well, except Joey Crabb and Nate Oystrick. BRING UP THE WOLVES!!!
By Ryan C
December 23, 2008 1:54 PM | Link to this
I have to say that I’ve heard the rumor of Kovy/Army for Gabby/Johnsson, and quite frankly, no matter how much I’ve defended this team, if DW is allowed to make this trade, I’m ebaying my jerseys, and I’m done with Thrashers Hockey
I can deal with Kovy leaving if he wants, I can even deal with getting some REAL talent in a trade next year for him, however Gabby is constantly hurt, he wouldn’t do much better than Kovy has been doing, and He’s out half the year!!! We’ve already added players to the defense, so losing an additional O man for another D man makes absolutely no sense.
There has to be something the fans can do to block another DW blockbuster trade that makes another team better and keeps us mediocre at best.
I actually have to also make the statement of having Kari (and believe me it hurts to say it) or not having him, at this point I’ll take him, Pavs is obviously not ready to compete every night at the NHL level, but I still like his potential, let the D develop this year and then see what he can do for us.
Also Sid Vicious got away with another call last night, his stick was obviously higher than the bar, but oh well let the NHL not police it’s poster child.