AJC > Sports Thrashers > Blog > Archives > 2008 > December > 22
Monday, December 22, 2008
The Reason For The Season
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Mike Knobler recently asked the question… how many of the games that will be played over the holidays will the Thrashers need to win in order to work their way back into playoff contention?
Well Mike, since ya asked….
First off…let me state for the record that I do not expect this Thrashers team to make the playoff. However, before you call me Scrooge…remember, before the season began I predicted Atlanta would net 86 points, finish third in the Southeast Division and eleventh in the East. I’ve never expected this team would compete for post-season play and to date they haven’t come close to proving me…and many other fans…wrong.
However, seeing that it is the Christmas season…and that the whole reason for the hockey season is to make the playoffs… I’m willing to put aside my worldly doubts and “Bah-humbug” demeanor on this issue and consider the possibility of “A Miracle on Centennial Olympic Park Drive” as well as what it’ll take to make it happen…at least in a mathematical and statistical manner.
For the Thrashers, their “star in the east” to look toward as their guide is 94 points. I’ve prophesized my belief in the past that it’ll take a minimum of that to get in as an 8 seed. If one can get in with less, great…but 94 is my number. Atlanta has 26 after 32 games. That means they need 68 points over the remaining 50 games. That would require that Atlanta go something like 32-14-4, a points winning percentage of .680…which is playing at just about the same level that the Chicago Blackhawks have played so far this season…18-6-7 after 31 games.
That’s quite a long distance between the way they have played so far and where they need to be, I’ll admit. But, as with all such journeys, to make such a trek begins with the first initial steps. And those steps would have to begin now.
If you take a look at the schedule… including last Saturday’s opponent, Tampa Bay…the Thrashers will play eight of nine games over the holidays against teams that did not qualify for the playoffs last season. This is significant because their record against such opponents so far this year is 9-2-2. In fact, five of Atlanta’s overall eleven wins this year have come against the three teams they will play this week…Toronto, the Islanders and Carolina. And they have outscored those teams 23-11 in those five games.
So, if there is a move that is going to be made…now is the time.
If…IF…the Thrashers are going to make a move to compete for the playoffs, in my opinion they have to go at least 7-2 over these nine games to put themselves at 17-19-4 for 38 points after 40 games played. Of course, they helped get such a crusade off to a good start with the 4-3 win over the Bolts this past weekend…so they need to take 6 of the next 8 to climb back into it.
Now, lets us not forget that inside this window of games are dates with the Beasts of the East, Boston… as well as the18-12-3 Vancouver Canucks. Also, even though Atlanta is 2-0-0 against them, Carolina is 15-13-5 overall. So it isn’t as though we’ve got a bunch of creampuffs on the agenda.
But, let’s just say…for grins and giggles…that the Thrashers do indeed accomplish this mission. 38 points after 40 games is exactly one point off last season’s pace of 39 after 40 played. And, as you’ll recall, they were still in the race at that point and even worked their way to a record of 29-27-4 for 62 points after 60 games, which placed them atop the division lead…even if just for a day.
However, going back to the “star in the east” guide of 94 points needed for a playoff birth, having 38 points after 40 games means that the Thrashers would still need 56 points over the remaining 42 games to get to their destination. That would mean Atlanta would need to play to a record of something like 26-12-4 down the stretch.
I know…still a pretty long camel ride. But again…to even set themselves up for the possibility of such a scenario is to get at least 12 points out of the next 8 games before going into the January 6 game in Pittsburgh to take on the Penguins and Cindy “The Crotch” Crosby.
So, if you are among those of us who believe that nothing short of divine intervention is needed in order to see this year’s version of the Thrashers compete in The Great Stanley Cup Tournament…I’d say you’re not being as much a “Scrooge” as you are simply a “realist”.
But I’m sure that there are still some in our number that believe such a miraculous run is possible from our Thrashers over the next few months … of course, I think our community Sage would refer to those group of believers as “the Blueland sheep abiding in the field”. However if such a miracle is to occur in our… Little Town of At-lan-ta…the time to see it begin is now, during the Christmas season.
But then…aren’t “miracles” the reason for this season in the first place?
