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Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Statistically Speaking
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
In “Chapters from my Autobiography”, published in the North American Review, No. DCXVIII, July 5, 1907, Mark Twain wrote, “Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: ‘There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.’”
And with that in mind…let’s delve into some statisticalerization regarding our Atlanta Thrashers, shall we?
Best Of The Worst?
Over the course of the next nine games, the Thrashers will be playing five games against four teams that were in the post-season last spring. The Rangers are in town Wednesday and then there are two versus Boston this weekend, one here…one there. Next week they will travel to Ottawa again on Tuesday before returning home to play the Penguins on the 18th.
After that, Atlanta draws four straight against non-qualifiers for last season’s playoffs…Tampa Bay, Toronto, the Islanders and Carolina.
So, just how does Atlanta stack up so far this season against both playoff and non-playoff participants from last year? Well, they are 1-12-1 against last spring’s post-season qualifiers…8-2-2 against their fellow non-qualifiers.
At least we are consistently winning against the teams we should be beating.
A Little Help From His Friends
So far after 26 games, Ilya Kovalchuk leads the Thrashers with 26 points, (9 goals, 17 assists). This puts him on a pace for…don’t even need my calculator for this one…82 points. That total would be down slightly from last season’s 87 points.
Now, the team as a whole has seen it’s scoring increase from last season when they managed but 2.52 goals per game, (tied for 22nd in the league with Vancouver), to 2.92 goals per game this year, (11th best in the league).
So, why the overall offense increases as Kovy’s numbers lag a skosh?
Simple…it’s because he’s not having to shoulder the entire burden. Last year Ilya’s 87 points led the team…but then there was a dramatic drop-off. Before 86-ing the team, Marian Hossa had netted 26 goals and 30 assist for 56 points in 60 games…on a pace for 77 had he remained. Then came Mark Recchi’s 48 points, Eric Perrin’s 45 and Slava Kozlov’s 41. The leading scorer among blueliners was Tobias Enstrom who netted 38 total points.
This season, Kozzy’s on a pace to earn 73 points, Bryan Little 69, and Todd White 66. And this year Ron Hainsey leads the way among defenders with 5 goals and 16 points which, if continued over 82 games, would bring in 50 points.
They seem to be spreading things around a little better.
What Would It Take?
The Thrashers’ overall record of 9-14-3 for 21 points means they have a .404 winning percentage, (based on points won versus points available). If you want to put that into the perspective of what it might take to land a playoff spot this coming spring…stop laughing…well, let’s look at it this way.
Last season, Ottawa and Boston entered the post-season as the 7th and 8th seeds in the East with 94 points. (Yes, I know Nashville was the 8-seed in the West with 91…but I’m using the model in the east since that is the conference Atlanta plays in). Anyway, in order to get to 94 points, the Thrashers would have to earn 73 of the remaining 112 available to them over the last 56 games. That would be a points winning percentage of .652.
Stop laughing!
To date, the teams that are playing at or above a .653 points winning % are San Jose, (.852 pnts. %)…Boston, (.778 pnts. %)…Detroit, (.769 pnts. %)…Montreal, (.673 pnts. %).
So, if the Thrashers can play… from this points on… at the same level of the Sharks, Red Wings, Bruins, and/or Habs…then they can make the playoffs.
Seriously…stop laughing!
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