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Sunday, July 27, 2008
Replacements vs. The Replaced: A Comparison
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The way I see it, the roster moves to date have been a series of replacements for players who have left this summer. Zhitnik is gone and replacing him is Ron Hainsey. Zach Bogosian should play this season filling the void left by Steve McCarthy. Up front, the opening created by Bobby Holik’s signing with the New Jersey Devils is dealt with by the addition of Marty Reasoner and Jason Williams takes the roster space that was filled last season by Mark Recchi.
Let’s break things down, shall we…
Last season in Columbus, Hainsey had 8 goals, 24 assists and was a -7 with 25 PIM in 78 games. Zhit’s numbers…3 goals, 5 assists and -8 with 58 PIM in 65 games. The numbers that jump out to me are the PIM. Plus Hainsey’s legs are about 9 years younger.
Williams’ production numbers of 13 goals, 23 assists in 43 games last season are similar to Recchi’s 12 goals, 28 assists in 53 games in Atlanta. JW’s -2 last year was a world better than Recchi’s -16, plus he’s 12 years younger. In the 2005-06 season, Williams accounted for 21 goals and 37 assists and was a +4 in 80 games.
Marty Reasoner is an adequate replacement for Bobby Holik. Last year’s Thrashers captain netted 15 goals, 19 helpers and was a -14. He won 58.4% of the face-offs taken. Marty Reasoner’s numbers last year in Edmonton was 11g, 14a and -17 with a FO% of 52.8. Both played in all 82 games. Again, we gain in the age game here by about 6 years. But the big difference I see, once again, is the time spent in the sin-bin. In the three seasons with the Thrashers, Holik racked up 79, 86 and 90 total penalty minutes in 228 games. Reasoner’s last three seasons were mostly spent with the Oilers, (19 games with the Bruins), and his PIM numbers were 28, 60 and 50 in 231 games. If Marty can keep the Thrashers from having to kill off so many penalties, especially at key times in the game and provide strong face-off numbers…then he will be a very good addition.
Now, Bogosian is the unknown. If indeed he does make the team this season, then who knows how much an 18-year old can contribute in his rookie year. But I would think he could do no worse than McCarthy’s 1 goal and 7 points, -23 in 55 games…knocking wood.
As you have surely noticed…so far I have compared only the players who have left the roster during the summer to those who have taken their place. But there are other comparisons that can be made as well. Namely, those involved in the trade deadline deal of last February. Pittsburgh still has in its employ Pascal Dupuis who finished the season playing 78 games with 12 goals, 15 assists and broke even in the plus/minus ratio. We have Colby Armstrong who in 72 games notched 13 goals, 22 assists, was a +4. I like Dupuis’ hustle and tenacity…but those are still comparable numbers with a slight statistical edge to Army. And we have Erik Christensen in addition who will play for us.
So, while all of that may seem good for the most part…there is something un-good to consider in this exercise.
Do you remember that Marian Hossa character? When he departed Blueland, he had accounted for 26 goals and 56 points. He added an additional 10 points for the Penguins after that. And while those are respectable numbers, they were way down from the previous two seasons when he was responsible for 92 and 100 points for the Thrashers. Not surprisingly, those are the two best seasons in Thrashers history.
Who in the current lineup is going to replace that type of productivity? …Christensen?
Hardly.
He has a lot of promise and will probably be given a fair shake at the #1 center job…but it’s a stretch to think his 11 goals and 13 assists in 59 total games are going to improve enough to cover the numbers left in Hossa’s wake.
Unless this gaping hole in the lineup is able to be addressed via some type of trade, then the Thrashers are going to rely on such players as Stuart, Sterling, Little and Thorburn to grow up just a little faster than expected. Ultimately time will tell if they are up to that task, but the newly assembled coaching staff of Anderson, Nelson and Cunneyworth seem to be the right group to help that process along.
Of course, there is one other type of swap I’d like to see…that would be replacing the Slava Kozlov of last season and his 17 goals, 41 points and -10… with the Slava Kozlov of 2006-07 who amassed 28 goals and 80 points and was a +9.
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