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Twenty Points Ahead

By now most of you have read Mark Bradley’s fine piece regarding Don Waddell. In it, the Thrashers general manager pointed to the Philadelphia Flyers as hope for a team that failed miserably one season to leap to the playoffs the next. The Flyers finished with a mere 56 points in the ’06-’07 campaign and then qualified for the post-season this year with 95 points and the sixth playoff seed in the east.

Said Waddell regarding their position a year ago and Atlanta’s 76 points of this past season, “…we’re 20 points ahead of them”.

OK, while I agree that the Flyers are a good model to follow, let’s take a quick look at some of the reasons they were able to elevate themselves out of the muck and mire of the conference cellar and are now poised to enter into the second round of this year’s playoffs.

Well, let’s see…it all began about fourteen months ago when Philly was able to jettison an aging defender and the two-plus years remaining on his contract worth $3.5 million per year to a team desperate to make their initial trip into post-season…a team that had a general manager fearing that failure to do so would cost him his job. The Flyers gained in return a young defender that has contributed greatly to their turn in fortunes.

The player traded away: Alexei Zhitnik

The team they dealt him to: The Atlanta Thrashers

The general manager: Don Waddell

The Player gained in return: Braydon Coburn

Then, they added to their defensive corps Kimmo Timonen and Jason Smith. So, as you can see, the blueline situation was actually addressed…not just given lip service.

Then there is this guy, Daniel Briere that they picked up. He’s a pretty good center in case you haven’t heard. He accounted for 31 goals and 41 assists during the regular season. Not surprisingly, Briere has been instrumental in Philadelphia’s success so far in the opening round of the playoffs, netting 5 goals and 3 assists in four games thus far.

Compare that with the 14 goals and 23 assists from the “answer” we were given to our #1 center position, Todd White.

A few good defenders plus a top line center has equated to 39 more points in the standings and a game away from advancing to the second round of the playoffs behind a defense that went from giving up 3.62 goals per game to just 2.77.

But the problem here is that, while it’s true the Thrashers are 20 better than the Flyers were a year ago, the fact of the matter is that this time last year the Flyers were further along the road to recovery than the Thrashers are now.

That is, unless the team has suckered away a great young blueliner from a team …in return for an aging one that is carrying about $7 million worth of salary …that we don’t know about yet.

But, Waddell at least sees where such a road map to a successful turnaround can be found. The question is, can he follow the route laid out.

Playoff Update

Pittsburgh made short work of Ottawa, sweeping the defending Eastern Champs and outscoring them 16-5 in the process. Marian Hossa notched a goal and four helpers and was a +3 with 24 shots on goal, (9 in game 4 alone). Pascal Dupuis was a +2 with 2 assists.

The Boston Bruins are clinging on for dear life in their series with Montreal. Facing elimination they came away with a 5-1 victory in game five. With the score tied at one in the third period the Bruins went ahead to stay on a goal by Glen Metropolit on their way to a four-goal third. Marc Savard has a goal and 3 assists for Boston so far…his goal the game winner in OT of game 3.

Mike Knuble’s goal 6:40 into the second overtime powered Philly to within a game of advancing to the second round. Jeff Carter scored twice, (the second via a nice pass from Jaroslav Modry), and added a helper on the game winner while Daniel Briere tallied his fifth goal of the post-season. Flyers goalie Martin Biron stopped all 18 shots he faced in the overtime to buy his team the time needed to get the win. Braydon Cobourn earned is third assist in the series. Washington will look to avoid elimination Saturday afternoon back in D.C.

The Dallas Stars find themselves in much the same situation as Philadelphia, leading the defending Stanley Cup Champion Ducks 3 games to 1 after Thursday night’s 3-1 win. Marty Turco was throwing a shutout against Anaheim until Mathieu Schnider scored with eight seconds left…bummer. Turco finished the night with 27 saves on 28 shots.

Looky here, would ya…Minnesota and Colorado played yet another 3-2 game. Four of the five games played so far in this match-up have ended in that score, the previous three times in OT. Game five of the series went to the Avalanche as Peter Forsberg and Milan Hejduk each had 2 assists and Andrew Brunette scored his 3rd goal and fifth point of the series.

Calgary’s comeback attempt fell just short Thursday night and the Sharks took a 3-2 series lead. Trailing 4-1 halfway through the third period the Flames were able to pull to within a goal thanks to goals by Daymond Langkow and David Moss. Jonathan Cheechoo was a man possessed in the beginning of the third scoring twice in the first eight and a half minutes, providing the ultimate margin of victory. San Jose plays for the series win Sunday night.

The Predators travel to Detroit for the pivotal game 5 of the series after taking games 3 and 4 back in Nashville. Is it just me, or are there others out there who would love to see the lone team from the southeastern part of the country pull the upset here?

The Rangers look to end things with New Jersey tonight as the series heads back to the Jersey side of the Hudson with the Devils down 3 games to 1. So far in this match-up, the Rangers are playing the better team defense and getting the better goaltending.

OK, now…go back and count the former Thrashers mentioned above.

Permalink | Comments (32) |

Comments

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By glovesave29

April 18, 2008 1:26 PM | Link to this

Rawhide - I am afraid your points will get in to the hands of Kovy, he will see all the former teammates playing significant roles on their teams’ playoff runs and will leave the moment he is eligible to.

By Thrasher Ryan

April 18, 2008 1:34 PM | Link to this

Rawhide—I count 7. Unless we can go ahead and count Zhithead as a former Thrasher, then your answer is 8.

How depressing.

By gmlane

April 18, 2008 1:48 PM | Link to this

And you didn’t even mention de Vries, who is also having a good series.

By PJ

April 18, 2008 2:19 PM | Link to this

Rawhide Nice post. I’m cheering for the Preds too. That would be a nice upset. I don’t know if prayers are gonna help NJ, but I can still hope….

TR Can we count Zhit as a FORMER- Thrasher??? Can we? Please??

By Smoothie

April 18, 2008 2:35 PM | Link to this

Where the hell is Custance?? Oh wait, wrong blog…sorry. At least we have one “media” guy who actually gives a crap about this crappy franchise.

Nah, I’m just kidding. I love Double C and think he does a fine job in a town where the media is generally ignorant to the fact ice hockey is actually the best game around to watch and at which to enjoy ice cold beer. But I digress, does anyone know if we traded our next best asset (next to Kovy) for another journalistic stiff like Bradley or closet racist like Terrence Moore? By the way Terrence, Trevor Immelman is a far classier man than you’ll ever hope to be…do some research before you shoot off at the mouth about a guy who has probably given more to charity than you make in 10 years.

Wow, that felt good. Please resume your normal posting activities!

By Brendan

April 18, 2008 2:44 PM | Link to this

There’s something I’d like to add. In Philadelphia’s metamorphosis from LAST PLACE to the #6 seed, they were also SELLERS at the trade deadline.

I mention that only because Atlanta chose not to be sellers. Johan Hedberg, Bobby Holik, Mark Recchi, Steve McCarthy and possible others … were not “rented” at the February trade deadline.

There are a couple of ways of looking at that. One is, we wouldn’t have gotten much back from them anyway. Another is … that the ownership/management needed to keep up appearances that the team was still vying for a playoff berth. Another way of looking at it … is as a missed opportunity for the longerm advancement of the team.

I’ve reached the point where … I’m just grateful that our farm system wasn’t gutted just to make it in. We still have Pavelec, Sterling, Valabik, Denny, Oysterick, Colin Stuart, Jordan LaVallee, Grant Lewis, etc. And if we want to keep Krog and Haydar, we’ll have that option this Summer. At least a hypothetical new GM would still have “something” with which to work, in terms of young players.

By Locust

April 18, 2008 2:44 PM | Link to this

And you didn’t even mention de Vries, who is also having a good series.

Other former Thrashers in the playoffs include: Darcy Hordichuk, Shane Hnidy, Mark Hartigan, Chris Kunitz, Joe DiPenta, Eric Belanger, Kurtis Foster (Out with Broken Leg), Vitaly Vishnevski, and Brian Pothier (IR).

By Rawhide

April 18, 2008 3:01 PM | Link to this

Jsmooth - Craig will be back with us shortly. I’d tell you where he was and what he was doing…but then I’d have to kill you!

gmlane & Locust - Thanks! There do seem to be quite a few of ‘em out there, eh?

Brendan - Good points as per usual, professor.

By Alan

April 18, 2008 3:34 PM | Link to this

Another way of looking at it … is as a missed opportunity for the longerm advancement of the team.

Given this team’s history in the draft, are you sure you want to look at it this way? Anything after the first round would be hit or miss, anyway. And more often than not, we miss.

By ThrasherNY

April 18, 2008 3:50 PM | Link to this

Rawhide do you really think that the Coburn for Zhitnik trade was motivated by DW trying to keep his job? I have stopped using that explanation as the motivational factor in light of the most recent “vote of confidence” by ASG. How can we say his job was in danger when we can clearly see failure to make progress or to make the playoffs are not things DW is held accountable for. My new thesis is that those trades were made as a marketing effort and ultimately to increase sales revenue in the short term. We promised the big show and failed so we had to deliver the next year to keep the ignorant masses in the arena.

We have no hope of doing what the Flyers did because we dont have the money to do it. If we buy a Briere caliber center we cant afford blueliners and if we buy the needed talent for the blueline we cant afford a top tier center.

My prediction for next season is as follows: No center for Kovy yet again. Instead we hear about how White will have a bigger role in the new coaches system and how Christensen was brought in to play with Kovy. Maybe even a pipe dream about little being the guy. Two middle of the road defensmen are brought in and touted to be top tier guys for us. Once again some more smoke about how the new coach will make a difference.

By Bob

April 18, 2008 3:53 PM | Link to this

How bout this, who’s the ex-Thrasher that you would most like to succeed in this year’s playoffs?

For me it’s Hoss, I’d love to see him raise a Cup in Pittsburgh.

Second is Bruno, I always liked him and love the game he plays which is at the same level today as when he played for us.

By Brendan

April 18, 2008 4:00 PM | Link to this

Alan, just like a raffle, I’d want as many chances at it as I could get. Toby Enstrom and Garnet Exelby were 8th rounders. Shots in the dark? Sure. But you’ve got to have them … to land them.

Now, some of those UFAs might be back. Others won’t be. In the case of the “won’t be’s,” it’s a missed opportunity.

I hear you screaming! “I don’t want some of those UFA’s back. Especially Holik!” I don’t know what to say. Pray.

Pray HARDER.

By Bob

April 18, 2008 4:01 PM | Link to this

How can we say his job was in danger when we can clearly see failure to make progress or to make the playoffs are not things DW is held accountable for

I think his job was in jeopardy if they didn’t make the playoffs last year, that’s why he made those moves.

The rumor is, and was reported a couple places, that Waddell got a two year extension this past Fall after he took the reins from Hartley and went on that 11-4 run…our brain dead owners gave him a 2 year extension and now they don’t want to eat that money along with Hartley’s (they still owe Hartley for next season, didn’t want to have to pay 2 GMs as well-morons)

By Brendan

April 18, 2008 4:38 PM | Link to this

I’d like to see Shean Donovan have some more playoff success.

By kracker

April 18, 2008 6:00 PM | Link to this

Yeah, that 2-yr extention (cough, cough)…wonder who DW has for an agent? Did he even need one to get that sweetheart gift of an extension.

These owners really are morons….or worse yet, no competent, non-desperate GM will take the job here because of constraints imposed by an ASG that doesn’t really want to make the investments necessary to win hockey games. So retaining Waddell spares them the embarrassment of not being able to attract a quality GM.

By kracker

April 18, 2008 7:29 PM | Link to this

Question: We have learned that DW likely got his 2-yr contract extension after moving behind the bench and the team going 11-4 in the 15 games following the firing of Bob Hartley. Wasn’t it only a short time after that time that Marian Hossa switched agents, which rather officially signaled his decision to play elsewhere?

Surely Hossa and every team member and team employee would know of the contract extension. What more evidence would Hossa need that this franchise had no hope of making significant improvements than the ASG retaining Waddell as GM? Of course, this is just speculation but I find the timing of the two actions quite striking.

By HookyBob

April 18, 2008 8:01 PM | Link to this

Rawhide: In further support of your premis that Philly was “moving in the right direction” at the close of last season,…at this time last year Philly also had a new coach in place whose “system” was established and embraced by the team. Philly is also a team whose identity has not waivered in most of it 40 year existence. They embraced it again this season, perhaps a bit too much. (If there is anything I don’t like about the current team it is how often they cross the line in hitting opposing players.) Speaking of which has Steve Downie been a healthy scratch for these games?

BTW: Shane Hnidy is another ex-Thrasher who is having a good playoff.

Bob: Thumbs up on your comment about Brunette. That guy can go into a corner and come out with the puck like few others. Man, could we have used that this year.

I gotta go w Hossa to have a successful play-offs too,..even if it means our draft dropping a few slots.

By Brendan

April 18, 2008 10:56 PM | Link to this

Well, Nashville almost won its 1st ever road playoff game. They scored with 0:37 left in regulation to force overtime. But the Red Wings won it, not 2-minutes into OT. The NY Rangers won their series with NJ. This is a playoff year Brodeur would rather forget. Wonder if GM Lou Lamoriello will fire his coach again? One never knows what Lou might do, at any given moment.

By polskidawg

April 19, 2008 1:09 AM | Link to this

Rawhide - not that you need my approval, but your summation is spot on.

As are the comments of the bloggers.

DW is here to stay, unlike Kovy…

By SauSage of Blueland

April 19, 2008 9:28 AM | Link to this

Suckers.

By Nikita

April 19, 2008 2:20 PM | Link to this

Re: rebuilding…

Keep at the right price: Holik - lowball. low priority. ideally could be retained on a one-year contract. Recchi - $1,125,000. moderate priority. one-year contract, which meshes well with his desire to retire in a year.
Boulton - $525,000. Shorter-term contract due to age. Maybe 2 years? Still he’s so cheap that even if age were a factor it wouldn’t burden us much. Hedberg - $1,000,000. If we can use him as a true backup goalie, rather than a half season goalie.

Lose: McCarthy - $725,000. Worthwhile loser at any price. Frickin’ terrible. He showed flashes of brilliance at the end of the season, but that doesn’t really compensate for 45 games of horrid. Popovic (VI) - $517,500* Er, maybe keep. He’s not maturing enough, but he’s still not peak age and he’s cheap. Kwiatkowski and Krog - Over peak, still not up to standard. Lose ‘em. I’m sure we can find cheaper, younger players to fill in just as mediocrely.

Keep RFA: Lehtonen - $1,850,000. Duh.

We need to buy two top-notch D players, at minimum. Not sure what we do with Zhit, though a waive would be reasonable. That leaves us with Mystery first badass pairing, Enstrom/Havelid, Boris/Klee, and Zhit/Ex (who we have for one more year, right?)/whoever for backup. My only concern here is age…the mystery first’s age would affect how I see this. And that we continue to keep kids in the pipeline, because we’ll have to replace two spots in the next few years.

I’m less worried about the makeup of the forward lines than about their heart, conditioning, and work ethic. We already have the talent to beat any team in the league, and we’re losing practically no forwards. Talentwise we can get away with keeping none of the ones who are eligible to leave. My only concern is that Holik, Boulton, and Recchi are three of our most solid players in terms of physical play, and I would be terrified to lose that, since we seem to be unable to train many of the others (particularly some of our faster, flashier players) to incorporate it. Also, we need enforcers on every line. These three enforce well when required to and play the body consistently…not many of the remaining players do. They’re also very durable, particularly FrankenBobby, the man too ugly to injure.

By 12345

April 20, 2008 12:38 AM | Link to this

No more holik under any terms.

No to recchi, simply too old, we need new young blood.

Boulton ok for cheap tag.

Trade KL for center & pick.

We do not more retreads or Don Waddell !!!!!!!

By Alan

April 20, 2008 4:04 AM | Link to this

Trade KL for center & pick.

Put down the crack pipe, and step away from the computer.

By 12345

April 20, 2008 10:03 AM | Link to this

FIRST OFF alan, shut your STUPID mouth connecting me with drugs.

You are most likely a sex offender trying not to get caught.

Go havea lovein with DON WADDELL, sounds like you two were made for each other and leave the NHL stuff to REAL FANS !

By Alan

April 20, 2008 10:49 AM | Link to this

Wow, what a response. The vitriol seems to be flowing like coffee at Waffle House this morning.

By Brendan

April 20, 2008 12:10 PM | Link to this

Fellas, Kari’s not going anywhere. And if he does, it’s because the organization let him reach restricted free agency by failing to get him under contract before July 1st. And then The Thrashers couldn’t match an RFA offersheet. Absent that, which is unlikely, Kari will be here at training camp. Okayyyy, someone just screamed, “Well, he could be a ‘holdout.’” Yes, theoretically, that is also possible. In which case, Atlanta has until December 1st to ink him before Kari becomes ineligible for play in the 2008-09 season. If Kari sets foot on European ice as a paid professional, he is likewise ineligible to play for the Thrashers in 2008-09.

The Lehtonen situation is complicated. Based on Waddell’s comments, he doesn’t want Kari to feel threatened by a backup wanting to take his starting job as #1 goalie. Well, I can appreciate that. But this is the real world. And in the real world, goaltenders vie for positions. Why did you draft Pavelec, if you didn’t want to give him a chance to be your #1 goalie, Don? (He drafted him for “insurance,” you say. Well, at the expense of a #8 overall pick, that’s a curious stance for a GM to take.)

But I digress. Hedberg will be unrestricted this Summer, unless he is re-signed before July 1. I would like to see him back on a one-year deal. That’d be tossing the Thrashers a bone. But why should Hedberg agree to that?? He’s going to get nice offers. As in, the multi-year variety. Maybe even for a playoff team. Hedberg won’t cost a lot to re-sign by any team. It’ll be between $1.0 and $1.5 million, at the most. Almost any team can afford that. Especially for an important position like goaltender. Hedberg has never been a source of acrimony for any team he’s ever been with.

If Pavelec is not ready to be the #2 goalie in Atlanta, then back to Chicago he goes, for another year of seasoning. But if he is ready, and he really is the best goaltender in the Thrashers organization, then he should be in net on “Opening Night.” And if Kari doesn’t “like that,” he’ll just have to elevate his game.

But there’s an even larger issue than ANY of this. If the Atlanta Thrashers cannot devise a defensive system that reduces goals against to 220, at a minimum, it’ll never contend for the Cup or even be a threat to advance into the latter rounds of the playoffs. And there it is. So, whomever is hired to Coach this team, that’s priority #1. Priority #2, is getting rid of any players who refuse to “buy into it” the system, or who can’t learn it.

Once a “real system” is installed, we can evaluate our goaltending a little bit better. With a better defensive system in place, Lehtonen’s numbers should rise correspondingly. Let’s see if he’s still having mental meltdowns. Let’s see if he has yet more groin injuries. Let’s see if Pavelec is the goalie who dominates. And if Hedberg should still be here, let’s see how his numbers go, too.

Waddell could be a super nice guy, offer Hedberg a 3-year deal (guaranteed money), but then promise him that he’ll trade him to a contender if Pavelec assumes the #2 position. His contract won’t be cost-prohibitive for another club, especially pro-rated for the time of the trade. He should also tell him that he won’t play in the minors. He’ll either be playing or sitting on the bench when he’s not in the pressbox. Those aren’t exactly “thrilling options” for Moose in Atlanta, but the money is guaranteed. And in the very worst case scenario, (barring the “I” word, which I won’t mention,) he’ll be claimed off waivers.

By Brendan

April 20, 2008 12:12 PM | Link to this

Fellas, Kari’s not going anywhere. And if he does, it’s because the organization let him reach restricted free agency by failing to get him under contract before July 1st. And then The Thrashers couldn’t match an RFA offersheet. Absent that, which is unlikely, Kari will be here at training camp. Okayyyy, someone just screamed, “Well, he could be a ‘holdout.’” Yes, theoretically, that is also possible. In which case, Atlanta has until December 1st to ink him before Kari becomes ineligible for play in the 2008-09 season. If Kari sets foot on European ice as a paid professional, he is likewise ineligible to play for the Thrashers in 2008-09.

The Lehtonen situation is complicated. Based on Waddell’s comments, he doesn’t want Kari to feel threatened by a backup wanting to take his starting job as #1 goalie. Well, I can appreciate that. But this is the real world. And in the real world, goaltenders vie for positions. Why did you draft Pavelec, if you didn’t want to give him a chance to be your #1 goalie, Don? (He drafted him for “insurance,” you say. Well, at the expense of a #8 overall pick, that’s a curious stance for a GM to take.)

But I digress. Hedberg will be unrestricted this Summer, unless he is re-signed before July 1. I would like to see him back on a one-year deal. That’d be tossing the Thrashers a bone. But why should Hedberg agree to that?? He’s going to get nice offers. As in, the multi-year variety. Maybe even for a playoff team. Hedberg won’t cost a lot to re-sign by any team. It’ll be between $1.0 and $1.5 million, at the most. Almost any team can afford that. Especially for an important position like goaltender. Hedberg has never been a source of acrimony for any team he’s ever been with.

If Pavelec is not ready to be the #2 goalie in Atlanta, then back to Chicago he goes, for another year of seasoning. But if he is ready, and he really is the best goaltender in the Thrashers organization, then he should be in net on “Opening Night.” And if Kari doesn’t “like that,” he’ll just have to elevate his game.

But there’s an even larger issue than ANY of this. If the Atlanta Thrashers cannot devise a defensive system that reduces goals against to 220, at a minimum, it’ll never contend for the Cup or even be a threat to advance into the latter rounds of the playoffs. And there it is. So, whomever is hired to Coach this team, that’s priority #1. Priority #2, is getting rid of any players who refuse to “buy into it” the system, or who can’t learn it.

Once a “real system” is installed, we can evaluate our goaltending a little bit better. With a better defensive system in place, Lehtonen’s numbers should rise correspondingly. Let’s see if he’s still having mental meltdowns. Let’s see if he has yet more groin injuries. Let’s see if Pavelec is the goalie who dominates. And if Hedberg should still be here, let’s see how his numbers go, too.

Waddell could be a super nice guy, offer Hedberg a 3-year deal (guaranteed money), but then promise him that he’ll trade him to a contender if Pavelec assumes the #2 position. His contract won’t be cost-prohibitive for another club, especially pro-rated for the time of the trade. He should also tell him that he won’t play in the minors. He’ll either be playing or sitting on the bench when he’s not in the pressbox. Those aren’t exactly “thrilling options” for Moose in Atlanta, but the money is guaranteed. And in the very worst case scenario, (barring the “I” word, which I won’t mention,) he’ll be claimed off waivers.

By Alan

April 20, 2008 12:20 PM | Link to this

Brendan - Hell of a post to click “post” twice on. Still, lots of good points. I know Kari isn’t going anywhere; I was merely pointing out in the sarcastic way I tend to point things out in that trading Kari (or letting an offer sheet get to him, for that matter) is an un-good idea.

C’est la vie.

By Manley

April 20, 2008 2:44 PM | Link to this

Hello all! I apologize for checking out on you guys, but time is precious over here and I frankly thought I had a good excuse not to put more effort into the team than most of the players were.

One important point to remember about the Flyers’ rapid recovery is that their 2006-2007 season was an ANOMALY! Philly has a history and culture of winning and that one miserable season was bound to get many people fired up to not let it happen again.

Unfortunately, it seems as though the Thrashers’ 2006-2007 season was an anomaly, as well. I agree with many others that the “20 points ahead” has little bearing on anything, given the many differences between the Thrashers’ current situation and the Flyers’ at this point last year. If everyone from the Equipment Manager to the Atlanta Spirit are not disgusted about this season and fired up to make serious changes then there is no culture of winning and the results will be the same.

I am torn about wanting to see Hossa succeed with the Pens. I have no heartburn with him wanting to go to a competitive team, but the guy currently playing for Pittsburgh was not seen in a Thrashers jersey this season (or in the playoffs last season, for that matter). I dislike that in any form. You play hard for the jersey you’re wearing, period. But, I like Hossa and do wish him the best.

Oh, and watching Coburn every other night is killing me! With defense such a long-standing need in ATL, to watch the ones that got away prove their worth is almost unbearable.

Sorry for the long post.

By Rawhide

April 20, 2008 9:46 PM | Link to this

Manley - No need to say sorry for a long post!! It’s great to hear from you and I hope you are doing well!

By Thrashersgirl

April 21, 2008 12:57 PM | Link to this

I would say that the proper term is “The Thrashers are still on life support”.

Can I get a Medic?

By LAC

April 22, 2008 4:12 PM | Link to this

Gee this alan is so far off base it’s crazy… Calling other dopers ??? What’s up with that ?

Just another waddell fan who can’t wait to see don’s big off season moves flop on their collective butts next season when we finish 29th.

Just wonderful being a hockey fan in Atlanta these days !

 

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