AJC > Sports Thrashers > Blog > Archives > 2008 > February > 20
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Thrasher Math 101
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
(Thrasher Math 101 class at Blueland University. Prof. Rawhide takes the lectern)
OK, class…settle down… Class? …CLASS? …SHUT UP!
(Ahem)…Thank you.
Smoothie & Ranallo, good to see you both on time…Blue Crew stretching exercise class must have gotten out early…Manley, thanks for parking the tank out back and not on the lawn…Alan, please take off the skates while in here…very tough to keep an edge on the blades otherwise, ya know. Sara…the brownies you baked for the class, very tasty indeed…interesting flavor. Some kind of secret ingredient?
Thrasher Ryan, please take this note to the office and have them fax to Dean Waddell as he is in Naples, FL getting in an early spring break with 29 of his friends. It says, “Sign Kari and Dupruis, NOW”!
Five_Hole, HookyBob, Kracker and Pucksdeep…stop trying out each other’s mouth guards…that’s just…ewww. Please, just take your seats. The same goes for the rest of you…lot’s of new faces in here.
First of all, just a reminder that Dr. Custance is still conducting class in Thrasher Reading 301 and the information he is providing is of great value. Also, I want you all to take time to join Brendan in his Thrasher Philosophy discussions…but make sure you take a recording device as you won’t be able to write it all down. Given the time of year, you’ll want to put these on your agendas.
Brian, your absence recently has been noticed and you’ll have time to explain yourself later.
Now then, last time we met the discussion revolved around mathematical formulas that would get the Thrashers to 95 or 96 points. The theory being that this was the required level to get to the playoffs. We studied the PEG formula and the need to average 15-16 points per month. Yes, you remember…
GaVaHokie, get that puck out of your mouth!
Anyway, do you have those notes with you?? Good. I want you to take them out of your notebooks, crumple them up and toss them away! Why? Because the only way Atlanta is getting to 96 points right now is to gain 34 points in the last 21 games. That would be something like going 17-4 down the stretch. The official statistical term for such odds of that happening is “notgonnahappennowayinhell”…here, I’ll write that on the board for you.
Puckjunque, will you please nudge J(Z) over there and wake him…thanks.
Anyway, what we are looking at now is something around 90 points, maybe a point or two more or less…but the way the Southeast is shaping up, that just might do it.
Rstroz…Roswell Thrasherfan…you two settle down back there. Don’t make me separate you two.
Now, what is the math regarding getting from here to said 90 points? Simple…get 28 points out of the 42 available. Seems easy enough, right?
Well, let’s take out the ‘ol #2s and do some figuring, here. Assume 90 points is the magical number…OK? And take into account that the Thrashers now have 62 points…alrighty? So that would mean that Atlanta has, to date, 68.89% of the targeted total. Then take into account that the 61 games played to date is 74.39% of the 82 games on the schedule…got that?
Now…what that all means is that with right at three quarters of the season gone…the Thrashers still need to gain one third of the points needed…just to have a shot. Or, to simplify this for our special student from Livonia, Michigan, they need to get roughly 33% of the points needed in the last 25% of the season.
NASCAR Dave, your eyes are all glossy…did I just make your head spin? You’ll want to go see the nurse…leave the Daytona 500 Official Program here, please…thank you.
Lastly, the Thrashers got some help the last few days. New Jersey and Boston both beat the Hurricanes, (albeit the Bruins collapse in the last minute of the game allowed Carolina a point), and Pittsburgh’s 3 late goals slapped down the Panthers. This leaves us only three points behind the Canes with two in hand, two ahead of Florida with one game in hand and tied with the Caps with a game to give, (which will be played tonight vs. the Islanders). So, Atlanta has gotten some much-needed assistance during their time off.
OK,…now for the discussion part of class….
