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Friday, January 4, 2008

Thrashers Second Quarter Report Card

First of all, a big thank you to Cousin Cletus for filling in for me the other night. He had a good time with it and I hope ya’ll did too.

The Thrashers return home tonight for the tail end of the home and home series against the Carolina Hurricanes. Wednesday’s 5-4 overtime win brought the Boys of Blueland to within 3 points of the division leaders and kept them within striking distance of a playoff spot in the conference.

As we sit at the halfway point in the season, the Thrashers have amassed 41 points. Double that you only have 82, which won’t get ya to the playoffs. So there is some ground to gain. The way I see it, we should be somewhere in the mid to high 60’s after the next 20 or so games. That would mean gaining at least 25 or so points in the third quarter.

Of course, playing in the Southeast Division isn’t hurting our chances either seeing that no one is really running away with it. As we sit today, 90 points could win this thing!

So, with that said, it’s mid-season report card time for the Thrashers! Let me know what you think & how you would grade them in these categories, or if you can think of other areas…list them as well.

I’ll be back Sunday to discuss tonight’s game as well as the Buffalo as well, (I wonder if those boys are thawed out yet from New Years Day)…

OFFENSE

The Good: Ilya Kovalchuk. How many Thrashers does it take to screw in a light bulb? Well, I dunno, but once in place, Atlanta only needs one player to light the lamp…#17. He still leads the league in goals with 33 to go with his 57 overall points. On pace to score 66 and tally 114 points, Ilya is the NHL’s MVP to-date. Marian Hossa has continued to play well, but not yet up to what is normally expected from an all-star caliber forward. He currently sits with 14 goals and 22 assists in the 38 games he has played. Mark Recchi has been a Godsend since arriving in Blueland delivering 6 goals and 12 points in his 12 games. Eric Perrin’s play of late has been very good and Bobby Holik has started to contribute with a goal in each of the last 3 games. When Todd White is “ON”, he is very good, but those times come and go too often.

Also, on their last report card, the Thrashers G/G was an abysmal 2.56, 22nd in the NHL. Today it is improved to 2.73, which is 15th best in the league. And they have only been shut out twice in the second quarter of the season. First quarter they were blanked an unacceptable 5 times. Both are improvements, but could be better still.

The Un-Good: Their power play continues to sputter at 15th best in the NHL at 18.2%. While that’s up from 16.0%, 19th in the league, that number needs to get to about 20%. The shots on goal average has not shown significant improvement either, currently 26.1 per game up from 25.7 previously. That is still only 25th best. Jim Slater is still seeking his first goal, though he has been sidelined for the past week.

The Summary: All in all, today the offense looks better then it did six weeks ago. Kovy’s play still is a big part of that. But the addition of Recchi, which now gives the team two solid scoring lines, has helped the overall goal production. Power play and shots on goal still must improve. If the grading were solely regarding Kovy’s play, it would be an A+.

The Grade: B-, (Up from a C-)

DEFENSE

The Good: Tobias Enstrom continues to lead the team with 24.03 TOI. He has thrown in 3 goals and 21 assists as well. The D pairings of late have seemed to play better, especially in the past 2-3 weeks. Alexei Zhitnik has been more like the player he was last March, though still too slow. The Thrashers as a whole have seemed to cut down on the amount of time spend in the sin-bin, even considering Wednesday’s game.

The Un-Good: The 3.29 GAA again is second worst in the NHL to Tampa Bay, (it was 3.39 last Thanksgiving), and the 32.1 SA/G is only 1/10 a point better then it was on the last report card.. Penalty killing has gone from a league worst of 72.6% to 77.3% but is still better then only Carolina. To be honest, I was a bit surprised that these numbers were still as bad as they are given the play of late, but a couple games, (Ottawa on the 15th of December and Boston last Monday), have a tendency to skew the stats. But, it is what it is.

The Summary: The team defense was awful in the first quarter. Statistically it isn’t much better now. However, it has shown stretches of better play recently, (giving up 2 or less goals in 6 out of 7 games at the end of December), but we still need to cut down on the shots that get through to our net-minder. Having to score 4 goals a game on average to win games is a tall order.

The Grade: C-, (Up from a D)

GOALKEEPING

The Good: Kari Lehtonen returned from his injury in early December by blanking the Islanders and has taken over the starting role. Since his return, he has a 7-5-0 record and has lowered his GAA from 4.49 to a semi-respectable 3.10. His save percentage has risen to a .904 from .879. His stretch of games from Dec. 18th to the day after Christmas saw him give up only 2 goals per game and then he returned from a bad outing to shut out the Bruins in his next start.

The Un-Good: As strong as Johan Hedberg has been in his back-up role, his record since the last grading is 2-3-1 and his 2.96 GAA has increased to 3.19 and he has a .879 SV%. This isn’t a criticism of Moose because he’s great to have in a support role, but the numbers need to improve when called upon.

The Summary: Don Waddell has pretty much made it clear that Kari Lehtonen is the #1 net-minder. Lately, he has played like the role fits him more times then not. This is good, but can he do it starting 30+ games over the next 41? Well, that’s the question. We have the luxury of a solid back-up guy in Moose as well as Opie in Chicago if need be, but folks…how Kari does over the next 12 weeks will determine whether or not we play more then 2 games in April.

The Grade: B-, (Up from C+)

ROOKIES

The Good: Again, Tobias Enstrom. As noted prior, his 24.03 TOI leads the team and he has become such a fixture on the blue line that it’s tough to continue viewing him as a rookie. His 3 goals and 21 assists place him as the Thrasher’s #3 scorer, tied with White. Colin Stuart has played well in his three games with a goal and assist.

The Un-Good: Popovic going down was not pleasant, but Steve McCarthy has helped fill the void only going -5 in that span, (I know…).

The Summary: Enstrom’s play continues to impress, and Stuart as done well in the few games since being called up, but gone are the likes of Sterling, Hadar, and Little to Chicago and Popovic has yet to return to the line up since he went down. With Eric Boulton’s injury, Kevin Doell will get a call up, so we’ll see how he does. If the grade were only for the two remaining, it would be an A again.

The Grade: B, (Down from an A).

EXTRA CREDIT

The Thrashers are 9-1 in overtime so far this season, the only loss coming via the shoot out in New Jersey. If the Thrashers gone only 5-5 in those 10 overtime games, they would only have 37 points and be as low as 4th place in the division and 14th in the conference. Also, they would be 8 points off the lead in the Southeast Division had one of those losses been on Wednesday night to the Hurricane. Those are HUGE points!

For this, they earn an A+ for the project.

OVERALL GRADE

B-, (Up from a C).

Note: Stats are through Wednesday’s games.

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