AJC > Sports > Thrashers > Blog > Archives > 2008 > December > 21 > Entry
DEL.ICIO.USNo day off
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Thrashers often get Sundays off, but not today, or next week, or the week after that. There are games Dec. 28 and Jan. 4, and there was a practice today because of Monday’s game against Toronto. It wasn’t a long practice, though, and the skate was optional, because Monday and Tuesday’s games will be the fourth and fifth in eight days.
The bigger picture: The Thrashers are playing 14 games in 26 days, from Dec. 16-Jan. 4.
No wonder coach John Anderson gave players the option of doing a workout on an exercise bike instead of skating. I was about 10 minutes late today (hey, I’ve got 14 games in 26 days, too), but the only players I didn’t see on the ice were Ilya Kovalchuk, Mathieu Schneider, Ron Hainsey, Eric Perrin, Tobias Enstrom, Marty Reasoner and Garnet Exelby. Exelby is in a walking soft cast/boot as his hairline fracture heals, and Reasoner is day to day with a sore hand.
Kari Lehtonen and Johan Hedberg both were practicing. The plan is to start Lehtonen against Toronto on Monday and Hedberg against the Islanders on Tuesday. Makes a lot of sense, based on the way Kari played Saturday night and the way Moose played the last time the Thrashers visited the Island (28 saves on 29 shots). Hedberg is 5-6-2; Lehtonen 3-5-2.
The upcoming schedule, with Eastern Conference rank in parentheses: Monday, Toronto (11); Tuesday, at New York Islanders (15); Friday, Carolina (9); Sunday, Boston (1); Dec. 30, at Toronto (11); Dec. 31, at Carolina (9); Jan. 2, Vancouver (5, Western Conference); Jan. 4, Tampa Bay (14).
That’s five of the next six and six of the next eight against Eastern Conference teams that wouldn’t make the playoffs if the playoffs started today.
Two questions: How many of those games do the Thrashers need to win if they hope to be in playoff contention come March? How many do you think they will win?
Comments
By PUTTING ON THE FOIL
December 21, 2008 2:45 PM | Link to this
FIRE WADDELL
By Mike
December 21, 2008 2:50 PM | Link to this
Mike
Any news on the report in the Ottawa Sun about a potential trade with Minnesota?
text to be linked
By DB
December 21, 2008 2:57 PM | Link to this
Mr. Knobler, would you mind contacting the NHL to see why Cindy Crotchby has not received any sort of penalty (beyond the 2 minute one) for his actions?
By Brendan
December 21, 2008 4:16 PM | Link to this
Nobody breaks down the points necessary scenarios like Russ. But I’ll take a shot, too. To answer the first question, how many do they need to win to be in playoff contention in March? They have to win seven of those eight, or take 14 of 16 points. But seriously, why are we talking about playoffs, cue Jim Mora, Sr. “Playoff talk” is reserved for blustering GMs, obfuscating owners, and desperate ticket representatives, just trying to stay on the payroll through the end of the calendar year.
How many do I “think” they’ll win?: Four. I say they split with Toronto, split with Carolina, route the Islanders, and beat the Bolts again. That means losses to Toronto, Carolina, Vancouver, and Carolina. I see it as 4-4. Possibly, 4-3-1. I could see us losing to the ‘Canes in overtime or a shootout. Maybe even Toronto, too. Okay, that’d make it 4-2-2, for 10 of a possible 16-points. But even so, our trade deadline won’t be about adding players, it’ll be about selling players.
Stop. That’s what a rebuilding team does. Remember, we’re allegedly, supposedly 20-points AHEAD of where Philadelphia finished in 2007, when they started their rebuilding project. Unless the Los Angeles are willing to take Matthieu Schneider for Jack Johnson or Drew Doughty, we’re not going to accomplish the Philadelphia equivalent of Zhitnik for Coburn.
Unless Atlanta can convince some team out there to cough up a player like Scottie Upshall, a prospect like Ryan Parent, and said team’s 1st and 3rd round draft picks, Don Waddell isn’t going to pull off a “Peter Forsberg-like trade,” the way Philly did with Nashville. The only player like that … is Kovalchuk, whom Waddell doesn’t want to trade. Now, he could “ask” Slava Kozlov to waive his no trade clause, but Slava doesn’t have to accommodate him. And even if he did, what’s Kozlov going to fetch? Kozlov will be 37 on May 3, 2008. Kozlov has another year left, at a cap hit of $3.75 million, and is penciled in for 20 goals next season. Okay, folks. What kind of draft pick are you giving up for a 37-year old, 20-goal scorer? Who costs upwards of $4 million? Third round pick? Mid-range second round pick? Perhaps, a prospect at a position where you have a surplus? In terms of a draft pick, we’re probably talking about a pick in the mid-40’s. That’s still fertile ground for finding someone, but it clearly situated in the “shot in the dark” portion of the draft. Also, to capitalize on such a pick, you’d have to have an “Ottawa-like” scouting staff. Nope, not here. Nic Havelid might fetch a low-end 2nd round pick, for a contender with injuries. I’d say Havelid is good for a 3rd round pick. Schneider should fetch a 3rd round pick, maybe a mid-2nd rounder, depending on how depleted and desperate a contending team’s blueline may have been decimated by injuries. The “desperation factor” is what can tilt the scale in the Thrashers favor, in terms of “selling.” Also, Williams and Reasoner are expendable. The draft pick compensation won’t be anything to write home about. Waddell won’t move Exelby, in my view. But he’s another piece that could be moved. “XLB” has another year left, at $1.33 million cap hit, if some team showed interest.
By Alan
December 21, 2008 5:01 PM | Link to this
Mike - I don’t see that happening. We don’t need a D-man here, and Gaborik’s stock is low at this point. Injury prone players are very hard to move.
By ranallo10 (in AT)
December 21, 2008 8:11 PM | Link to this
Bruce Garrioch has just about as much credibility as Eklund.
By LAC
December 21, 2008 8:35 PM | Link to this
Why trade our ONE BIG STAR for a guy who will be a UFA after this season and has what TWO goals this season, NO THANKS !
Talk about an attendence killer or shall we say FRANCHISE KILLER, if #17 goes, then I honestly believe the run of the Thrashers will be done here.
don waddell all by himself has done more to DESTROY the Thrashers than anyone and I hate to say it, hehas done a great job doing it too.
Trade #17 for Gaborik and I will never ever go back !
By R. Stroz
December 21, 2008 8:37 PM | Link to this
Kari may have practiced today; but, he also found time to attend the Hawks vs. Pistons at Philips.
By Mike Knobler
December 22, 2008 12:15 AM | Link to this
R. Stroz I guess that means Kari’s back really wasn’t hurting him.
Mike Anything is possible, but I don’t see it. Why does Atlanta become an attractive place for Gaborik to sign long-term? And it’s bizarre that Garrioch writes It’s believed Waddell was in Los Angeles last week to see the Wild play the Kings and Ducks. rather than attributing it to the Star Tribune’s Michael Russo, who reported it on his blog Dec. 14. Also, if Gaborik was the key element in the trade, why would Waddell be there for games Gaborik wasn’t playing?
By ranallo10 (in AT)
December 22, 2008 4:39 AM | Link to this
Also, if Gaborik was the key element in the trade, why would Waddell be there for games Gaborik wasn’t playing?
Ding Ding Ding. Unless Waddell scouted rehab sessions, I doubt he was interested in Gaborik and seriously contemplating moving Kovalchuk for him.
Garrioch does this all the time. It’s unsubstantiated verbal diarrhea.
I thought it was cute how he said “of course both will deny it, they always do”. — You’re right Garrioch, everyone who denies is truly lying to your face and working on that exact thing when you’re not asking/looking.
Garrioch — “Mr Waddell, are you thinking of playing in the NHL again?”
Waddell — “HELL NO, one game was enough for me!”
Garrioch (under his breath) — “Yeah, right…my sources tell me otherwise. OF COURSE you would deny it.”
By h
December 22, 2008 8:25 AM | Link to this
They need to go either 5-1-2 or 6-1-1 to at least be in a conversation. They probably will go 4-3-1 which just won’t be enough…..they need to be 3-0 or 2-0-1 in next 3 for sure.
By Russian
December 22, 2008 8:54 AM | Link to this
I do not know how many games we are going to win until January 4 and if we are going to PO this year (I guest we will not be PO)but we have to win some games against Toronto and Carolina. I heard same rumors about Wild and Thrasher, but it is going to be F*** Stupid Deal (same as Zhitnik and Corbun). Why will be Stupid???
Gabby is a good player, but he is injured very many times. Kovy played all seasons and did not take any injures.
Gabby said that he did not want to take $8.5 mln from Wild and stay in Minnesotta. How much are we going to pay him to stay in the team? $9 - 10 mln year? It is too much if he get injured again and again.
Wild asked Kovy plus Army to Gabby and D-men. Amry started to score some goals and we want to see him leave. It will be stupid idea also.
I think if Don will do this trade it will be his BIGGEST Mistake as professional hockey GM. FIRE WADDELL until it will not be late.
By Nikita
December 22, 2008 9:17 AM | Link to this
To be in the playoffs, we’d have to be 16th overall if the league were even. It’s not, so we have to be 8th in the East. Which we need about 10 more points to do right now, and some of the teams ahead of us need to fail or draw. (Also, it bears noting that #8 has played two more games than we have.)
My opinion, which has been my opinion since relatively early on, is that the Thrashers are capable of the playoffs. Their weaknesses are mental, not physical. I won’t predict how deep they could go.
That said, we have 30ish games remaining. I’m looking at the games more from the standpoint of who we should beat rather than how much we need to win. We should beat every team in the lower half of the 16 except Boston. We should beat Carolina (#8). We can beat Washington(#2). Luckily for us, more of our games are against the southeast, and all of those teams (except Washington, and Florida is showing more pluck than I would have expected) will be relatively easy pickings. The higher tiers we have gotten into relatively close games — if the Thrash can make incremenetal improvements and get into OT or win, then they’ll do fine.
So…we have 50ish games remaining. To make the playoffs, we need to win half and take about a third of those we lose to OT.
I have no idea how many we will win, though. That depends entirely on how many the team wants to win. I take hope from seeing how balanced the lines are, and how they’re all firing some portion of the time. But I want to see them play full games with heart and strategy, and I hope we will make some minor roster moves (replacing less effective players with more effective players who we will be able to keep and build on in the future).
By WW5
December 22, 2008 3:36 PM | Link to this
LETEMIN continued right where he left off - give up at least 3 goals per game. it is a shame when most of the time your team has to score 5 or 6 goals to win a game