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August 2008
So much for the other Ilya
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Kontinental Hockey League season starts Monday, and Ilya Nikulin remains half a world away from the Thrashers. The Ak Bars Kazan defenseman, Atlanta’s second-round draft pick in 2000, has been quite a tease but has always ended up choosing the sure money in Russia over the entry level contract in the NHL.
“We’re disappointed,” Thrashers general manager Don Waddell said, but he added that he wasn’t surprised. Throughout the summer, even when Nikulin’s U.S. agent said a signing was close, Waddell said he’d believe it when it happened. “At no point during this year” were the Thrashers counting on having Nikulin. Frustrating? Waddell said no, because this isn’t the first time he had been through this with Nikulin. The Thrashers stayed interested because, though they were never convinced Nikulin would sign, they knew they’d benefit if he did. “The player would be a good player in the NHL,” Waddell said.
From a coach’s perspective, though, there is something worse than not getting a player who could help your team be better: You could get the player and have him be less than fully committed to his decision to play for your team.
“For a guy like that, to me it’s like if a player is kind of injured, if he thinks he’s injured, then I’d prefer to put someone in there who’s ready to go full-tilt,” Thrashers coach John Anderson said. “Come of free will and free spirit and say this is what I really what I want to do. If you’re going to play in the National Hockey League, you can’t just put your big toe in the water, you’ve got to jump in. You’ve got to say, for sure that’s what I want to do. If you want to be there, jump in.
“I’m seeing wishy-washy, so I’m planning as if he’s not coming. If he says, I’m coming of my free spirit here, then that’s when I want him, not when he’s wishy-washy. Because it would be too easy just to go back. I want a commitment. Not just from him. I want people to come here and say I want to play in the National Hockey League for the Atlanta Thrashers.”
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Next for Bogosian, a contract
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Thrashers general manager Don Waddell is a methodical man. There was no rush to sign Zach Bogosian, the NHL’s No. 3 overall pick. Waddell waited for the Tampa Bay Lightning to sign No. 1 pick Steven Stamkos and for the Los Angeles Kings to sign No. 2 pick Drew Doughty. Stamkos signed in July; Doughty two weeks ago. Waddell expects to have a contract with Bogosian by the time Bogosian reports to the prospect tournament at Traverse City, Mich., Sept. 13, but that’s not a solid deadline.
The base entry-level contract is standard; the incentives are where there’s some negotiating room. Stamkos can earn up to $11.175 million over three years if he can score at least 20 goals with at least 35 assists and 60 points plus achieve other targets. (Those numbers are courtesy of the St. Petersburg Times.)
Waddell met with the Bogosians during the USA Hockey junior evaluation camp at Lake Placid early this month. Waddell liked what he saw on the ice there, too.
“In that group, he’s a man,” Waddell said. “Physicality-wise he’s so much ahead of other 18-year-olds.” Waddell predicted Bogosian’s biggest challenge if he makes the Thrashers team this season will be how rapidly he can learn and adjust with so much new being thrown at him. “From a physical standpoint,” Waddell said, “he looks ready to play.”
If he is, in fact, ready to play, that’s good for the Thrashers and bad news for the U.S. team at the world junior championships Dec. 26-Jan. 5 at Ottawa. “There’s never been a player released from their NHL team” to play in that tournament, Waddell said.
Bogosian’s contract and potential bonus money should put the Thrashers over the NHL payroll minimum of $40.7 million, which they need to reach before the start of the season. “Once we get him signed we’ll be fine,” Waddell said.
On other topics:
I get the chance to meet some of the Thrashers at the IceForum on Friday. Among the guys back on the ice: Niclas Havelid, Ken Klee, Eric Boulton, Chris Thorburn and Kari Lehtonen.
“It’s always great to get out there and get a feel for the puck, skate a little bit,” Havelid said, but he told me it’s too early for the players to get a feel for how things will change under the new coaching staff. “Right now we’re on our own. We’re working out with our strength and conditioning coach. There’s no system.”
Havelid spent June and July in Sweden. Klee was in Colorado. Thorburn went back to Sault Ste. Marie for a while but spent most of his summer in Atlanta; his idea of the perfect summer is relaxing by the pool in the heat, but he has been on the track twice a week and in the weight room each day. Boulton told me no matter what a player does to stay in shape over the summer, there’s nothing quite like ice time.
“You can bike and run as much as you want, but you’ve got to get on the ice,” he said. “It’s just different. … The closer you get to camp, you rev it up more and more and more.”
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It’s hockey season in Saskatoon
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The TV may be full of Olympic coverage, the AJC packed with football stories, but they’re playing hockey in Saskatchewan. And from this article, it looks like Thrashers forward Colby Armstrong has been having fun.
Thrashers free agent acquisition Marty Reasoner is the oldest of three brothers, and while Marty and Adam, Boston College’s goalie the past two seasons, chose hockey, middle brother David gave up the sport to become a golf club pro. “The swing itself is pretty similar, so it was an easy transition,” David told The Record of Bergen County, N.J. “[My brothers] can hit it 300 yards, but it doesn’t go straight.” Marty hopes to make headlines this season, but David is in the spotlight this week, when the PGA Tour comes to his course.
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Ominous losses for Atlanta Spirit
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
If you missed it, be sure to read Tim Tucker’s excellent update on the Atlanta Spirit ownership dispute. The thing that jumped out at me was “an indication that the owners other than Belkin have plowed more than $44 million into the money-losing basketball and hockey teams since August 2005.
So, I wonder how long they’re willing to lose almost $15 million a year in their operating budget and whether once they get their ownership dispute settled they might consider doing something about that number. It would help to know how much of those losses are coming from the Hawks and how much from the Thrashers. Maybe we’ll find out more leading up to or during the trial in February in Maryland.
I’ve seen e-mails from readers sure the Thrashers will go the way of the Flames, to Canada. I’m skeptical. There are a lot of synergies to owning an NBA and an NHL team in the same city.
Also, remember that even if they’re losing millions of dollars a year in their operating budget, the Spirit’s owners might be (and most likely are) making money overall when you consider the appreciation in the value of the teams. (Of course, to realize those gains, they have to sell all or part of those teams, or borrow against that increased value.)
So, if you were losing millions of dollars a year and owned an NHL and an NBA team, would you:
A) Keep expenses as low as possible to minimize further losses?
B) Invest in salaries, anyway, because you’ve got to spend money to make money, and fans won’t buy tickets to watch losing teams?
C) Choose one team to invest in, and run the other one on the cheap?
D) Do something else?
On another subject, here’s a link to an NHL.com story on Zach Bogosian. I like the “Chuck Norris” nickname.
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Europe, anyone?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The NHL exhibition schedule released today includes Tampa Bay playing Eisbaren Berlin in Berlin, the New York Rangers playing SC Bern and Metallurg Magnitogorsk in Bern, Pittsburgh playing Jokerit in Helsinki and Ottawa playing Frolunda at Gothenburg.
It had already been announced that the Rangers, Penguins, Senators and Lightning will play five regular-season games in Europe.
This year, for the first time, a European player captained a Stanley Cup champion.
So, I’m wondering, how long is it before European coaches start coming to the NHL? Coaches move internationally in soccer, with the Premier League in England having lots of foreigners calling the shots. And Canadian coaches have jobs in Europe; former Capitals coach Glen Hanlon, for instance, coaches Jokerit.
In an era when free agents’ choices about where to play has such a great impact on the success of a team, would a Russian coach, for instance, attract Russian players and possibly give his team a leg up? Or would Canadian and American players shy away from that team?
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Scheduling an improved record
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It’s not only whom you play. It’s when you play them. And the Thrashers appear to have a slight edge this season compared with last season in that department.
Here’s some analysis, using Microsoft Excel and a PowerBook G4.
The Thrashers had to play games on back-to-back days 18 times last season. They went 2-13-3 in those games. Contrast that with their 32-27-5 in other games, and you see a significant difference.
They were 17-16-5 when they played following a single rest day, 11-6-0 following two rest days, 2-2-0 following three rest days, 0-2-0 following four rest days and 2-0-0 following five rest days. (They lost their opener, but I’m not sure how you count the rest before that game.)
So, how does this season compare? They have 15 times when they play on back-to-back days, three fewer than in 2007-08. They have 41 times when they play on a single rest day, three more than in 2008-09. That difference, if their rest-day-effect stays the same, could be worth an extra victory, maybe even an extra three points in the standings.
OK, so that’s not much. But it’s something.
Other scheduling tidbits:
—Longest road trip: The four-game swing in February to Anaheim, Los Angeles, Phoenix and San Jose.
—Coldest road trip: Probably Colorado, Edmonton and Buffalo in March.
—Longest gap between games (not counting the All-Star break): Five days, from a Nov. 9 game at Carolina to a Nov. 14 game against Carolina.
—Toughest month: December, with a stretch of 15 games in 30 days. Four of those games are the back ends of back-to-backs.
—Toughest turnaround, mileage-wise: Playing a game at Philips Arena one night, then playing in Boston the next. The good news for the Thrashers is that the game in Philips is also against Boston.
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Lehtonen has begun on-ice workouts
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Kari Lehtonen won’t be returning to Atlanta for a couple of weeks, but the Thrashers’ No. 1 goalie already has returned to the ice. He has been working out in his native Finland for about a week with other Finnish pros, including NHL players and players whose teams are in Europe.
One of the big names: Teemu Selanne, a 38-year-old unrestricted free agent who might or might not want to continue playing in the NHL. Selanne became the leading scorer in Anaheim Ducks history this year; he had 23 points in 26 games with the team in 2008 after joining the team in January. Ducks general manager Brian Burke was quoted by the Orange County Register last week saying he hadn’t heard from Selanne in awhile and would like to speak with him.
“I don’t know if he’s coming back,” Lehtonen said of Selanne. “He’s been quiet about that. I’m sure he’ll tell us when he’s ready to make a decition. He’s still got a scoring touch, for sure.”
Another guy in on the workouts: Niklas Backstrom of the Minnesota Wild.
Lehtonen said he’s energized about hockey and playing for the Thrashers. “I’m excited to get to camp with the new coaching staff and a few new players,” he said.
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Thrashers prospects return to ice
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Defenseman Zach Bogosian, the third pick overall in the 2008 draft, is one of five Thrashers prospects expected to play Tuesday when candidates for the U.S. team in the 2009 World Junior Championship take on teams from Sweden and Finland at Lake Placid, N.Y.
The U.S. roster of under-20 players also includes forwards John Albert (sixth-round pick in 2007) and Vinny Saponari (fourth-round pick this year). The Swedish roster includes Nicklas Lasu (fifth round, 2008) and the Finnish roster includes Niclas Lucenius (fourth round, 2007).
More info is available here.
The World Juniors are Dec. 26-Jan. 5 at Ottawa.
On other subjects:
—The Thrashers still have a couple of players to sign (including Bogosian) and aren’t all that far from the league minimum payroll of $40.7 million. This breakdown has them at $38.226 million. This one has very similar numbers.
—Bogosian can get no more than $875,000 per year under the league’s rules for first-year players, but the contract can include substantial performance bonuses. No. 1 overall pick Steven Stamkos can earn as much as $8.55 million in bonuses over the course of his three-year deal with the Tampa Bay Lightning.
—I spoke with Johan Hedberg this morning. He’s in Sweden, enjoying time in a cabin by a lake, going boating and taking the kids tubing behind the boat. Hedberg comes back to Atlanta Aug. 13, but he’s already getting ready for the season. “Hopefully, I can get a few hours in [on the ice] this week and then get on the ice a couple of times next week,” Hedberg said.
—New Thrashers player Marty Reasoner was a pioneer of sorts last season. Reasoner used high tech skates with battery-powered heaters to warm the blades to the ideal temperature (about 41 degrees Fahrenheit) to decrease starting and gliding resistance. The equipment, made by Thermablade, has a manufacturer’s suggested retail price of $299.99. Reasoner is quoted in a company news release saying the skates “gave me a real advantage.”
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