By R. Stroz

August 4, 2008 3:03 PM | Link to this

FIRST?

By B. Thenet

August 4, 2008 3:04 PM | Link to this

I hear those Thermablades make it much easier to skate on “bad ice”, we might see a few more guys start using them this year.

By Buzilla in MI

August 4, 2008 3:10 PM | Link to this

3rd?

By Bob

August 4, 2008 3:37 PM | Link to this

How do the bonuses figure against the Cap? Let’s say they sign Bogo for $875k and $2.5m in bonuses for this year, do the $2.5m count (retroactively) against the cap if he hits them?

My point is, if they sign Bogo and that’s all, then they’re at $39.1m, but would they hit the minimum if the bonuses are hit? Is the $40.7m a day 1 cap number or do you just have to be at $40.7m by the end of the season?

By Sara

August 4, 2008 3:57 PM | Link to this

Bob I looked that up a few weeks back in the CBA when Bogo’s contract first came up. The bonuses automatically count against the cap from the start of the season. If you look at nhlnumbers.com as an example, you will see that at the bottom of the chart, there is a line for “bonus cushion.” So if Bogey could make $3M in bonuses next season alone, Bogey’s cap hit will be $3.875M basically. However, as soon as a bonus cannot be attained, it no longer counts against the cap, which could then proceed to drop us beneath the floor somewhere in the middle of the season.

Knobler what is the “penalty” for falling below the cap floor? The CBA doesn’t mention it anywhere.

By Sara

August 4, 2008 4:00 PM | Link to this

Oh, and Bob you have to be between the floor and the ceiling from the first day of the regular season through the last day of the regular season. Of course, it never says what happens to you if you aren’t between those two magic numbers….maybe Bettman calls and gives you a lecture and looks at you sternly.

By Mike Knobler

August 4, 2008 4:08 PM | Link to this

Bob

Great question. I read the CBA before I posted, but my head started hurting. By my reading, the bonuses DO count against the cap, until such time as they are unreachable.

Here’s a very interesting link about bonuses and the cap and the way the rules could be different this year than last, to the detriment of teams at the top end of the cap range.

By Mike Knobler

August 4, 2008 4:20 PM | Link to this

Sara

You beat me to it on answering Bob’s question. I’ll try to answer yours. On page 121, it says that any club found guilty of violating the terms of the CBA can be fined up to $5 million.

By Sara

August 4, 2008 4:39 PM | Link to this

Thanks, Mike. So basically it’s a numbers game of hedging your bets. If a team comes in under the floor, they may be betting that a corresponding fine will be less than the amount by which the team failed to meet the floor. (ie $3M below the floor but the fine is only for $1M). Personally, I’d fine them whatever it takes to get them to the floor plus $5M just for good measure. But then I have a backbone, Bettman and Co. do not.

By Bob

August 4, 2008 4:53 PM | Link to this

Thanks for the great info, Sara and Mike.

I’m guessing that they still sign Nikulin and they sign Bogosian, that’s almost the floor with just the base salaries, and then both can probably attain some minimum games played or assist bonuses and that’s the plan for the year. I don’t think Valabik’s salary is yet counted in the cap either, and that goes in there if/when he makes the roster.

By Mike Knobler

August 4, 2008 5:23 PM | Link to this

Bob

You are right that Valabik is not in those numbers.

Sara

You have the mind of a general manager. (Grin) I did leave out that teams also can be penalized draft picks, and that the system arbitrator or the commissioner can take action against a club employee.

By Alan

August 4, 2008 5:32 PM | Link to this

On page 121, it says that any club found guilty of violating the terms of the CBA can be fined up to $5 million.

That makes sense. I was wondering if it would be something like a fine of sorts.

Which brings me to something The Falconer reported in his blog last month:

Which brings me to one last possibility. The Thrashers could end up “selling” cap space like the Sharks did back in the summer of 2006. The Devils traded a player who had ceased to play, but as a over 35 veteran, his salary still counted against the cap. The Devils had to give the Sharks a conditional 1st round pick just to have sharks pay this guy his salary and consume cap space.

The story about the trade referenced above is located here.

By Sara

August 4, 2008 5:41 PM | Link to this

Mike LOL 5 years of business school will do that to you. At the end of the day, a sports franchise is a business to the owners and they are going to take a business approach to their dealings. And cost/benefit analysis is a cornerstone of the business world.

To me, not hitting the salary floor is the worst thing a franchise can do because it sends the message to fans, players, and the rest of the League hierarchy that you do not have the wherewithall to financially support your franchise. That’s disastrous, and probably the fastest way to have the League looking at finding a way to get those owners out the door.

That said, I think they made some grave errors with the old CBA in not instituting a hard cap. I mean, the floor has risen now above the original cap ceiling. It’s a problem for the franchises this whole thing was supposed to benefit. There are ways around a hard cap that could still ensure the players get their guaranteed X% of the revenues while not driving teams in under-performing markets into bankruptcy. And in all fairness, if you have a team (like the Thrashers) that happens to be at a point where they have lots of younger players making paltry salaries, it’s going to be difficult to get to a higher floor without grossly overpaying FA players, which throws off the entire market. That also can’t be something the League would want (the PA on the other hand…).

One issue that I have not seen addressed (to my recollection) is whether or not Belkin is still helping to finance anything with either club. I would think that as long as he is still tied to the ownership group, he has to pony up a certain amount of money but that could not be the case. If he isn’t helping to financially support the teams, they could be in for a real mess, since we know at least one of them is not solvent at the present time.

By John

August 4, 2008 6:00 PM | Link to this

It is just wonderful to have ones’ team paying the league minimum in salary’s…

By David

August 4, 2008 7:01 PM | Link to this

so we’re being tied to smolinksy and murray… thoughts?

By Alan

August 4, 2008 9:17 PM | Link to this

so we’re being tied to smolinksy and murray… thoughts?

My thought: “We’ve got to get to the cap floor somehow…”

Especially considering Smolinski. He made $2m last year with Montreal and only scored 8g 17a. That’s glaringly low numbers for a center. At age 37, his likely roles with this team would likely include “benchwarmer.” We’ve already got plenty of 3rd and 4th line centers on our roster.

Murray has far better production for last season, with 17g 13a. I would rather overpay him and possibly have some use for Murray at RW than overpay Smolinski and have absolutely no use for him at C. Also, Murray is about 10 months younger than Smolinski. Sure, I’m splitting hairs there, but age is a factor.

By sape

August 4, 2008 10:41 PM | Link to this

I am so embarassed on behalf of ASG that we even have to talk about possibility to be under cap floor. We should be talking about game and how we can ensure playoff tickets right after they come available because ticketmaster servers will crash due to high demand from atl.

By stendec

August 5, 2008 1:11 AM | Link to this

Ready for more soft goals, total inconsistent efforts and (gulp) those dreaded monkey pucks? WELL, GET DAMN READY! He is back! I see Thrashers re-signed Sori Letemin. Even gave the untalented LaLa Land inhabitant a raise. A F+++++G RAISE! Arthur Blank should be proud. God bless em. Never thought another Atlanta pro team could be lousier or in more disarray than Falcons. Beginning to have my doubts. WHAT S++THEADS! Good night all.

By Jim

August 5, 2008 8:31 AM | Link to this

Stendec- I sure hope that your rants are a means of venting pent-up anger and frustration and that it doesn’t take the form of road rage or child abuse. Take some deep breaths, man.

By Sara

August 5, 2008 8:57 AM | Link to this

Going back to what Mike talked about in his blog…

If Bogosian makes the team this year, wouldn’t that disqualify him from the juniors tournament?

stendec nice to see you’ve crawled out from under your rock to spew your normal nonsense. Kari had the 15th best SV% in the league last season yet faced more shots per game than any other goalie with an average of 32.5 shots against P/G. Yeah - worst goalie ever.

To everyone else capable of engaging in unbiased conversation…riddle me this. Kari’s SA P/G average was 32.5. Moose’s SA P/G average was 28.5 - 4 shots against less on average. So how do we explain such a large disparity (only one other team had a greater disparity between two goalies who basically shared duties somewhat evenly - and that was Boston where Thomas had a SA avg of 30.37 vs. Auld’s SA avg of 25.85)? Does the team just play better in front of Moose? Or perhaps they have more confidence in young Kari and feel freer to focus on offense over defense? Does Kari give up more rebounds? Did Moose get a lighter schedule?

By GaVaHokie

August 5, 2008 9:03 AM | Link to this

There is no room for Smolinski… I pray that doesn’t come to fruition.

I’m all onboard for getting Murray. If he scores 20 goals, he’s 2nd on the team in scoring by last years numbers (minus Hossa). Playing on a line with Kozlov or Kovalchuk, I think he could reach atleast 30 goals.

However, I’d still rather be patient to see what other teams have to jetison. Sounds like Prucha is on the blocks in NY… there’s a guy that could flourish in a larger role. He’s scored 30 goals before (in 68 games no less) not even playing first line minutes. He’s certainly falling down the depth chart with Dubinsky emerging and the addition of Zherdev and Naslund.

By Christy

August 5, 2008 9:25 AM | Link to this

Good Morning All.

Sara - I made the observation about the SA last season and at the time I thought it had everything to do with Kari’s lack of rebound control. Still do for the most part, but I also tbelieve it may be - and I have no real evidence of this since I can’t hear what they are saying on the ice - that Moose communicates with his D more than Kari does, or has a better idea of what to tell them…

By Sara

August 5, 2008 9:57 AM | Link to this

Christy those are definite thoughts. Like I said, for most teams, there does not appear to be this big fluctuation on the SA avg from one goalie to the next. Given that SA is more of a team stat than a goalie stat, the implications of such a broad fluctuation are interesting. (BTW, would anyone be surprised to know that some of the lowest SA averages belonged to Osgood and Hasek - 22.7 P/G and 20.86 P/G respectively - gee, wonder how important that stat is after all. FWIW Fleury’s was 25.98 P/G, Conklin’s 30.70 P/G.)

By Spud Webb

August 5, 2008 10:16 AM | Link to this

Knobler I know I’m beating a dead horse, sorry, but have you heard anything further on the Russian? I’m very hopeful that he gets here and think he will help our D get to a form of respectablility!!! Also, is there any word on Bogo possibly playing with the Big team this year? Smolinski and Murray, I’ll pass. I know we need to get to the cap floor, but these guys are no better than what we currently have. I’d prefer to see who shakes out before the start of the season. Thanks for the info Sara and Knobs, good work.

By Thrasher Paul

August 5, 2008 10:21 AM | Link to this

Anyone know when training camp opens?

By Sara

August 5, 2008 11:03 AM | Link to this

I’m guessing camp will start on or around the 22nd of September. Usually it started mid-month but I heard through a source they intend to start a week later than usual.

By ranallo10 (in AT)

August 5, 2008 11:23 AM | Link to this

With Bogosian’s contract and one more defender signed to the NHL team (likely Valabik), this team will be over the minimum.

The important question to me is the same mentioned previously, what’s the penalty if the team ventures below the floor during the season?

I don’t expect Murray or Smolinski, and would be unwelcome to both. Murray’s offensive production serves more of a purpose for this roster, but I still think it’s not worth signing a 35 year old that would be possibly taking up a roster spot for a 20-25 year old.

I’d rather Williams and Machacek than Murray and Williams, for the long term success of this team. Likely we wont see either RW combination, but a out-of-position center playing on the RW (Slater, Perrin and Little did this last season), and no UFA acquisitions of substance.

Anyone know if Jamie Rivers ever got that contract that was mentioned on hockeybuzz (I think Andy Strickland reported it)?

By paul

August 5, 2008 11:28 AM | Link to this

Bogo will play with the big team. It would be pointless to send him back to Junior his talent is beyond that level. A possibility would be the Thrashers could lend him to the national team for the world juniors but I suspect he will worl into the line up and they won’t let him go.Phaneuf went from junior to the flames and stuck, Bogosian will to. Believe me folks the guy could have went #1 in the draft and it would’t be a bad choice.

By MID-GAHOCKEYFAN

August 5, 2008 12:00 PM | Link to this

Lets All Be Patient, I Think That We Will All Be Surprised At The Names That Will Be On The Waiver Wire The Closer It Gets To Crunch Time.

By GaVaHokie

August 5, 2008 1:38 PM | Link to this

Wow… just looked at the poll question results on the main page. I still don’t think Washington is going to be the toughest opponent in the Southeast… Granted most people said “all the above” which is no surprise. But, I think the Hurricanes are way tougher than the Caps.

By Mike Knobler

August 5, 2008 1:47 PM | Link to this

Spud Webb

I think the Thrashers expect Bogosian to make the team. I’ll certainly post it as soon as I learn anything new on Nikulin.

By GaVaHokie

August 5, 2008 2:40 PM | Link to this

Looks to me like Valabik IS included in the salary cap number according to NHLNUMBERS.com

By Sara

August 5, 2008 2:53 PM | Link to this

No he’s not Hokie. He’s listed among the players, but if you look at the dark gray column that shows the $$ of the cap hit, for Valabik it’s $0.00.

By ranallo10 (in AT)

August 5, 2008 3:02 PM | Link to this

Hokie — The column under “Cap Hit” is where you want to look. Valabik is not added into that figure (do the math yourself, I just did).

The total cap hit also includes the “bonus cushion”, which to my understanding is factored into the cap hit (average of the length of the contract), and is why Enstrom’s salary is $750k but his cap hit is $900k ($200k bonus last season, $100k this season, “cushion reflects the $100k this season).

So yeah, it doesn’t include Valabik in the $37.719M total. With him it makes the cap $38.9605233333333M, with the bonus cushion not yet factored in (I don’t know any bonuses on Valabik or Little’s contracts, and Enstrom is shown as only $100k…Bogosian could push that up substantially based on the contract Stamkos signed).

Fun little game: count how many dollar signs I used!

By Alan

August 5, 2008 3:12 PM | Link to this

*ranallo - Eight.

By TableHockey

August 5, 2008 3:26 PM | Link to this

Good, bad or ugly - I’m ready for this season to start!

By ranallo10 (in AT)

August 5, 2008 3:33 PM | Link to this

Alan — I knew it!! The way you hide numbers you must be an accountant!

Man, I’m on today…booyah.

By GaVaHokie

August 5, 2008 3:38 PM | Link to this

Ranallo and Sara… got it, thanks!

I also still think we can land a Prucha, Nylander or Knuble over the next few weeks… those teams can only take on draft picks and prospects at this point, which is certainly something we can offer.

By ranallo10 (in AT)

August 5, 2008 3:57 PM | Link to this

Prucha would be the only one I’d take, but I fear he is a second liner at best (yeah, he had a lot of points one season, but Dubinsky isn’t that good that he should supplant a potential first-line center to wing duty and trade bait.)

I’ve been reading that Jussi “Juicy” Jokinen might be available. He’s a LW/C, but has been LW for Dallas and Tampa Bay most recently. Interesting upside, hasn’t been given a shot to prove his true value (lost in the depth charts of both teams), and is a shootout stud (not like that matters, but it’s fun to watch his Forsberg/Kozlov deke).

I find it hard to imagine Tampa Bay or Washington trading a top 2 center to Atlanta for anything. I also find it hard to imagine other teams in position to compete in the playoffs wouldn’t offer more in return for any proven center (i.e. Vancouver, Montreal, etc).

But of the three players you mentioned Hokie, Prucha is the only one I’d like to see here in Atlanta. Nylander was injured most of last season and is signed to a ridiculous contract for his age, and Knuble doesn’t do it for me (he’s what, 35 right now?). Prucha is 25, is still an RFA next season, and has a palatable cap hit of only $1.6M.

By GaVaHokie

August 5, 2008 4:08 PM | Link to this

I’ve been reading that Jussi “Juicy” Jokinen might be available. He’s a LW/C, but has been LW for Dallas and Tampa Bay most recently. Interesting upside, hasn’t been given a shot to prove his true value (lost in the depth charts of both teams)

Played for Dallas, C/LW, lost in the depth chart, hasn’t been given a shot to prove his true value…

Shades of Niko Kapanen? :)

By Brendan

August 5, 2008 4:20 PM | Link to this

Ranallo, I have you down for $40.7 million for Opening Night. Only J(Z) has a lower figure for Opening Night. I have to think that a budget being at $40.7 million is precariously too close to the floor, even for a team not necessarily wanting to spend much more than what is required.

But, I’d have to say … that Ranallo stands a very decent chance at winning this competition. And yes, Sara, that probably doesn’t speak well of this franchise, or its intentions, to be so close to the floor. I hope others don’t accuse Ranallo of being negative when he is only pointing out what he has seen, to this point. Bear in mind, it’s only August 5th. There can be waiver claims, trades, and more free agent signings, even from European leagues. In 2006, Waddell plucked Center Glen Metropolit from a Swiss league, I believe.

But I digress. It there were not a salary cap, and a requisite minimum floor, then the Thrashers’ budget just may well have been less than $40.7 million this season. So Ranallo is also right when he says, “thank God for the floor forcing their hand.” That’s parapharased a bit. But still captures the gist of it.

I’ve heard it advanced that, without revenue-sharing dollars, the Thrashers “break-even” point is at or about $38.5 million. No one knows how much revenue-sharing the Thrashers get. And, apparently, it’s tied to minimum attendance requirements, ticket sales, and being within the parameters of the salary cap.

Forsaking argument, let’s say the Thrashers get $7.5 million in revenue-sharing. $38.5 million plus $7.5 million equals a “break even” budget of $46.0 million for the year. This is where I would hope the Thrashers “starting point” budget begins. But, that assumes that the revenue-sharing dollars figure is accurate and that “hearsay” information about the “break-even” point is also accurate.

At least $46.0 million would be $10.7 million under the cap limit, allowing ample flexibility to gain salary at the trade deadline, if a playoff spot is within reach. Before you say, “Never!” I’m asking for some hope. I’d say “faith,” except that faith is the belief in something for which there is no evidence. John Anderson and Todd Nelson have coached many of the members of this team to a Championship or to the Finals of the AHL in the past. Now, I grant you … the difference between the AHL and the NHL is substantial. But it’s not as if no coach has ever made that leap before. Bruce Boudreau just won the Jack Adams Coach of the Year Award for what he did with the Capitals. There is some evidence to suggest that John Anderson can capably coach the Enstroms, Valabiks, Pavelecs, Lehtonens, LaVallees, Slaters, Stuarts, Exelbys, Littles, Sterlings, and whatever other AHL call-ups might be necessary for this season.

Now, let me ask something else. If the budget really does turn out to be at or about $40.7 to $41.7 million on “Opening Night,” doesn’t that speak to the intentions of the club? I won’t use the term “tank,” as that has obvious hot-button implications. But it’s not as if the budget were a robust $54.0 million. And before you say it, of course spending to that limit guarantees “nothing.” Not even a playoff berth. But it speaks to their “intentions.” I’m sure you can cite examples, up the ying yang, of teams from the 80’s and 90’s who spent nearly $90 million and missed the playoffs for 7-straight years.

The budget is what it will be. And it will say more about the intentions of the ownership than any words they might utter in some prepared remarks press conference. Go Thrashers! I hope they “coach ‘em up” this year. Fine by me. That’s what a smart team does in a “rebuilding” year. Just don’t tell me, Bruce Levenson, that you’re GUNNING FOR THE CUP this season on a $41 million budget, when the ceiling is $56.7 million. On second thought, go right ahead, Bruce. I’ll enjoy the carnage that follows such a pronouncement. All while poor Waddell is left there, rubbing his temples, trying to hide his face, muttering “calm, blue ocean,” over and over again, trying to get to his “happy place.”

By ranallo10 (in AT)

August 5, 2008 4:37 PM | Link to this

Hokie — That’s just mean. However, you forgot to mention that they’re both Finnish. And yes, I was supportive of Kapanen upon his arrival here…I still think he was a solid #3 center, much like Stefan. I know Kapanen didn’t perform as such, but he was given the same negative vibe from fans that other centers on the current team are given because he was slotted into a top line, which didn’t suit his skill sets (cough cough White cough).

Anyways…Jokinen is relatively cheap, young, has offensive flair, and is a shootout wizard. Him, Christensen and Kozlov/Kovalchuk on the shootout would be devastating (Christensen was top 10 in the league for SOGs, everyone knows Kozlov’s abilities there, and if you don’t know Jokinen’s you’ll have to YouTube his goals).

That being said, he plays for Tampa Bay currently, so I doubt he’d be traded to Atlanta.

Brendan — I don’t think I’ve seen you reference my name that much since, well ever. I’m worried about my prediction though, as Bogosian’s undetermined bonuses could push the team an extra $1-2M over the floor. Alas, you’ve allowed me time to change my tune, but for now I’ll stick with the league minimum.

(volgrad’s prediction was still the best, because he included cents)

By Brendan

August 5, 2008 4:53 PM | Link to this

Well, Tennesseein’ in believin’. If Volgrad can get it down to the penny, he’s the new face of the fan base.

By Toby

August 7, 2008 1:26 PM | Link to this

Knobler

Ive read on other sites that it looks like Nikulin is staying put in Russia. Can you confirm this? Any trade rumors?