I received an e-mail complaining about Don Waddell’s perceived inability to draft and it said that only eight (or maybe it was nine) players he drafted are in the NHL and was wondering why I’d never included that fact in a story.

The fact is, I wasn’t sure if it was a fact. So I started going through the Thrashers drafts to figure out how many Don Waddell draftees played in the NHL last season. Even created a spreadsheet (e-mail me if you want a copy). And after some serious data entry, I discovered that of the 81 players drafted by the Thrashers since 1999, 16 played in the NHL last season. The total amount of NHL games played by Thrashers draft picks is 2,962.

I stared at my screen, and realized that this exercise told me exactly nothing. Is 2,962 good? Is it bad? Is it average?

So I decided to dig a little deeper with help from The Internet Hockey Database and Hockey-Reference.com to compare those numbers to the other most recent NHL expansion teams: Minnesota, Nashville and Columbus. I was sure the numbers would prove that Minnesota and Nashville had much stronger drafts. It wasn’t quite that clear. Here’s what I found:

Drafted players (since 1999) who played in the NHL this season:
Columbus (22.5 percent): 18 of 80 draft picks
Minnesota (21.5 percent): 14 of 65 draft picks
Atlanta (19.8 percent): 16 of 81 draft picks
Nashville (14.8 percent): 13 of 88 draft picks

Total NHL games played by all drafted players since 1999:
Atlanta: 2,962
Minnesota: 2,890
Nashville: 2,754
Columbus: 2,615

If the Thrashers kept every player they drafted who played in the NHL this season, this would be the roster:

Forwards:
Ilya Kovalchuk
Dany Heatley
Bryan Little
Jordan LaVallee
Brett Sterling
Jim Slater
Colin Stuart
Darcy Hordichuk
Derek MacKenzie
Simon Gamache

Defensemen:
Braydon Coburn
Boris Valabik
Tobias Enstrom
Garnet Exelby

Goalies:
Kari Lehtonen
Ondrej Pavelec

Notes: Pavelec was the Thrashers first second-round pick to make it to the NHL… Had the Coburn trade never happened, the Thrashers could boast a young top pair of Coburn and Enstrom, two players taken in the same draft (2003)… Only one Thrashers draft pick has played more NHL games than Patrik Stefan’s career total of 455: Ilya Kovalchuk (466).

Conclusion: Trading Heatley and Coburn, and both circumstances were unique, really changes the core of this team. These draft results, while not better, are at least on par with similar teams. What are your thoughts? Is there a better way to analyze quality?

Permalink | Comments (85) | Post your comment |

Advertise here »