Thrashers

By Craig Custance

May 16, 2008 12:20 PM | Link to this

Did you guys see that Florida extended Jacques Martin’s deal as GM through the 2011-12 season? What do you think? I’m hearing that Martin may be waiting until the Pens are done because there’s interest in Andre Savard as a head coach. Think that’s a good fit?

By Smoothie

May 16, 2008 12:26 PM | Link to this

Just goes to show that the NHL Draft really is a total crap-shoot. Perhaps DWad isn’t that bad in assessing NHL talent.

Personally, I think the deeper problem is with management’s reluctance to pay and retain high-priced (some would say correctly priced) free-agent acquisitions such as Brunette, Kunitz, Savard and Frankie Kaberle.

Hopefully, with the 2 # 1 picks we have this year, we can augment our roster with two sure-fire prospects who can bear immediate fruit.

By Bryan

May 16, 2008 12:28 PM | Link to this

Drafting players in this era of 17-18 year olds is not an easy task. Anaheim took Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf 19th and 27th respectfully a few years ago, and those two stars helped them win last years Stanley Cup. Devoloping and improving these young players in a “Hockey Friendly” environment is as important. Making strong free agent signings and viable trades also has its affects.

By Smoothie

May 16, 2008 12:31 PM | Link to this

Craig — Has DW given you any hints as to who the Thrashers’ scouts like better of the following guys:

Doughty, Pietrangelo & Bogosian

From what I’ve read, which isn’t much, I think Bogo might be the real stud in that group.

Thanks for all you do to keep us Thrashers fans informed!

By Craig Custance

May 16, 2008 12:40 PM | Link to this

Long-term, I think Bogosian projects the highest but Doughty is closer to being ready now. I’m telling you guys, the wild card is Filatov. But can the Thrashers really risk taking the guy without a transfer agreement?

By B. Thenet

May 16, 2008 12:44 PM | Link to this

I think you need to look at DW’s drafting prowess in two phases, pre-lockout and post-lockout. Before the lockout the Thrashers did have some serious scouting/drafting issues, especially outside the 1st round with Exelby, Nurminen, and Enstrom being the main exceptions.

Over the last 3-4 years I think the Thrashers drafts have been much more successful outside the 1st round. Enlund, Machacek, Kulda, Pavelec, Lavallee, Holzapfel, Zubarev, and Postma. All seem to be on their way to the NHL at this point.

I think not getting Ilya Nikulin over from Russia also hurts(2nd round pick 1999). He is one of the top defenseman for the Russian World Championship team this year, and would certainly have been a starter in the NHL. The Thrashers still have a prospect page up for him, but it doesn’t look like he will ever make the jump to the NHL at this point.

DW is catching heat for his earlier drafting problems(and one stinker of a trade). A couple of years from now, many around Atlanta and the NHL might be singing a different tune if these young prospects continue to progress.

Now his UFA signings? That is a different story altogether.

By Smoothie

May 16, 2008 12:53 PM | Link to this

Thanks Craig and no, I don’t think we can afford to take a flyer on a guy (Filatov) who may never step foot on American soil. Unless Kovy can somehow influence him ahead of time and we get a “verbal”. But then again, I don’t know how this lack of a TA restricts movement.

I think I’m happy with either Doughty or Bogosian, but I think I’d prefer Bogo since he is apparently stronger on the PP / blueline QB.

By Jim

May 16, 2008 12:57 PM | Link to this

DW’s been around hockey for many years and probably has a pretty good eye for talent. But, he surely gets an “F” for strategy. His first strategy of building from the goal and defense out fell apart when Rhoades got injured and Maracle flopped. Then came the deal for an over the hill Dafoe. DW seems to have a penchant for over the hill players- Zhitnik, Klee, Holik, Larson, et al. Combine that with a “brinksmanship” style of negotiating and we know have a weak defensive team without a backbone. Time to give a new GM and coach a shot at coming up with a new strategy and cast to carry it out.

By B. Thenet

May 16, 2008 1:02 PM | Link to this

A couple more things Craig.

1. Has DW made any contact with representation for Enlund and Zubarev? I know Kulda is still playing with the Wolves, so that should come after their playoff run.

2. Mark Hartigan, Brian Pothier, and Mike Weaver have all seen a good deal of NHL service. While not draft choices, they do show the Thrashers didn’t get everything wrong in the early years when it comes to scouting. For some reason the Thrashers have seemed to get away from signing the undrafted overage kids.

By Jacob

May 16, 2008 1:18 PM | Link to this

I was actually happy with Don’s picks in the past two drafts. All the other years were real frustrating. Especially Stefan and Bourret who turned into busts in the first round.

As for this year, it is sounding like Doughty will go 2nd, to LA. For the Thrashers, I might like to see Filatov taken over some of the defensemen.

By Youngblood

May 16, 2008 1:44 PM | Link to this

Good stuff Craig. No we cannot afford to take a risk with Filatov. How far away is Bogo? Have you asked DW why we are moving so slowly in this search of for a coach? He’s had all season and now a month and a half after the season’s been over for us? Ridiculous. As far as being compared to the other 3 teams: Minny: 3 playoff appearances, Western conference appearance in 02/03. Nashville: 4 playoff appearances. Columbus: Well they have one less appearance than the Thrashers. Atlanta: 1 playoff appearance.

Bottom line is DW has had plenty of time to get this thing going and has failed. There is no other way to see it. It is time for changes.

By Craig Custance

May 16, 2008 2:00 PM | Link to this

Smoothie: Everything I’ve heard about Filatov is that he’s ready to come over here, speaks fluent English and is a high character guy.

Youngblood: I know the fans are getting impatient, but this coaching timeline is playing out exactly how Waddell said it would. Remember, the plan was to have a coach in place by the draft. Yes, we’re getting closer, but we’re still not that close to draft day. Let’s say they hire a coach three weeks ago, they missed out on a chance at a guy like Ron Wilson. Listen, they’ve waited this long, they’re not going to rush it.

By Jacob

May 16, 2008 2:00 PM | Link to this

I was NOT at all happywith our picks in the last few drafts. Filatov has mesmerized alot of folks lately, picking him may be a gamble worth taking. There are several defensemen we can add with our second first rounder later. Also adding some grit wouldnt hurt, as I want a team fast and difficult to play. These next couple of years will determine alot of things here in Atlanta.

By GaVaHomo

May 16, 2008 2:06 PM | Link to this

There was a report out of Toronto that Don Lever has been asked to come to Atlanta for an interview. Dont know what job that cound entail, possibly head or assitant coach, as he was in the AHL recently. Want to look at his track recoed, at least something is happening.

By GaVaHokie

May 16, 2008 2:07 PM | Link to this

Mark Hartigan, Brian Pothier, and Mike Weaver have all seen a good deal of NHL service.

Kurtis Foster (MIN) as well..

Personally, I think the deeper problem is with management’s reluctance to pay and retain high-priced (some would say correctly priced) free-agent acquisitions such as Brunette, Kunitz, Savard and Frankie Kaberle.

Kunitz was snatched off waivers by Anaheim when we tried to send him to Chicago.

By ThrasherNY

May 16, 2008 2:19 PM | Link to this

Craig: What the above analysis does not take into account is draft position. More importantly first round draft position.

Of the four teams contrasted above only Columbus (#1 ‘02) and Minnesota (#3 ‘00) have had a top three pick in the 9 yr history. DW has had four #1 or #2 picks. I dont have the data but based on the above I am wondering how many of the 2,962 games were played by Stefan, Heatley, Kovalchuk & Lehtonen?

The second problem is the % of draft picks playing last year statistic. It smells a little funny to me when I see that we are getting full credit for Lavallee, Sterling, Little, Stuart, MacKenzie & Pavelec. Those guys played minimal games for minimal minutes.

The future has always looked bright when considering our pipeline of talent, yet year in and year out we dont see to bring up anyone?

By Mark

May 16, 2008 2:21 PM | Link to this

Kunitz was also one of those waiver wire pick-ups that Atlanta grabbed when Anaheim was attempting to reassign Kunitz and Atlanta got him for about 2 or 3 games if memory serves. Then we had a glut of players and they decided to send him down and as he passed through waivers Anaheim grabbed him back.

By GaVaHokie

May 16, 2008 2:22 PM | Link to this

From what I see in scouting reports, Filatov is more similar to Zherdev than a guy like Kovy or Ovechkin. He’s not an elite player as his ranking would have you think. Waddell had better trade down first.

We’d be crazy not to take Bogosian or Doughty… and if you want a small speedy forward, and you’ll get tired of hearing me say this, you take Tyler Ennis with the second first round pick. He’s pretty much the same size as Filatov with perhaps more speed. Just as electrifying in my book.

He’s also from a good junior program, Medicine Hat. (Cam Barker, Jay Bouwmeester, Jason Chimera, Joffrey Lupol, Trevor Linden, Bryan McCabe, Lanny McDonald, Barry Melrose to name SEVERAL)

By Craig Custance

May 16, 2008 2:30 PM | Link to this

NY: Believe me, I’m not trying to skew any numbers, I’m just trying to be objective. I think your point is valid about Sterling, Stuart, etc. I also picked the comparison to the other recent expansion teams because of assumed draft position. To answer your second question, Kovy, Stefan, Kari and Heatley amount to 1,504 of the 2,962 total.

By Kitty Kat

May 16, 2008 2:31 PM | Link to this

We could take any player we want, its like a steak, you can make a Porterhouse or hamburger, we make hamburger here in Atlanta. Preparing players takes a strong organization.

By Craig Custance

May 16, 2008 2:33 PM | Link to this

Hokie: For what it’s worth, I’m taking Bogosian or Doughty and calling it a day. It addresses a huge need. I’m also not trading that second first-rounder because of the depth of this draft. I want to leave this draft with at least two top-tier prospects. But that’s just me.

By Bob

May 16, 2008 2:42 PM | Link to this

You can’t risk Filatov without having an agreement in place. We need dmen, have to go the safe route there.

As NY points out above, your analysis is flawed. First, Waddell had no brainer picks at #1 and #2 overall, none of the other clubs enjoyed that. And you’re analyzing this as % of picks that played in the NHL, yet you’re counting guys like Lavallee, Sterling, Little, Stuart, MacKenzie & Pavelec, that’s flawed.

It is what it is. Waddell is a terrible evaluator of talent, that is well documented and the club’s record proves it. To argue otherwise is just whistling through the graveyard.

As to the wait on the coach, there’s been no one brought in, right? This all leads me to believe that there’s some fire around that story of the OHL coach who’s taking his club to the Memorial Cup right now. He must be the guy. Hey, I bet he’d work cheap, good for FUBAS and Tightwad Don.

By jen

May 16, 2008 2:46 PM | Link to this

Also of note is the fact that for the last few seasons, vets were getting way more minutes than younger, less experienced guys. Coburn, while shaky at times, was pretty much ready last year and was not really given a fair shot at the NHL level. Kunitz was another example of a guy ready to play and displaced on the roster for older or “marginal” NHLers - ie: LArsen and Vigier

By LAC

May 16, 2008 3:03 PM | Link to this

Don Lever is a former Atlanta Flame, who played a season and a half here coming from Vancouver ina trade for John Gould at the time.

I believe a fresh face as a*’t coach would be good too.

But this thing has to turn around and it is just hard to believe these owners cannot see the problems with the franchise.

The draft picks have been hit or miss I feel the current GM could have done much better, butthe constant lack of talent on the ice that has developed… is, well quite telling.

It is so odd, these owners will not seieze the moment, hire Nonis and Wilson and step back, like Turner finally did with the Braves and let real hockey men run the show.

The defense of waddell is, well is indefenseable, why keep his and his record of bad judgement… This team is in trouble and needs a positive change…

Lastly Thanks Craig for NO answer, I thought you were more professional than that…

Come on now !

By Craig Custance

May 16, 2008 3:33 PM | Link to this

Patrick Roy tells the Denver Post he’s not interested in jumping to the NHL as a coach just yet.

By Donna

May 16, 2008 3:47 PM | Link to this

Can someone tell me what Territorial Rights was during the origional six days, as it totally confuses me. My boyfriend and I attend Georgia Tech, and I am trying to learn about hockey on the fly.

By David

May 16, 2008 3:56 PM | Link to this

I don’t the thrashers have the luxury of not using the two first rounders, UNLESS we get offered something spectacular for one of them. This is a great opportunity for the franchise to be patient and get good young players. Look at Pitt. They drafted patiently, developed good players, then built their roster accordingly.

I take Doughty.

By ToF

May 16, 2008 4:15 PM | Link to this

I’m taking Bogo the whole way with our first pick. He’s one of the best hitters in the draft (with Schenn) and is a beast in both ends. He pretty much carried his teams offence and his D is supposed to be better than his O. Doughty wouldn’t bother me, but he has a tendency to try and force plays, leaving him or teammates out of position (nothing a little coaching can’t fix).

Smoothie Filatov has already stated that he is going to play in the CHL next year. I don’t know if that was just lip service or if its legit, but all accounts make it sound like he wants to come over. If he falls to 29-30, I’d have no problem if we picked him up. This isn’t entirely out of the relm of possibilty, either. The lack of transfer agreement with def scare off a few GMs, but i doubt he’ll too us.

If we can’t get him, I say we pick Jake Gardiner (Minnetonka High School). Look him up, he projects to be a stellar Offensive D-man. If all else fails, Mitch Wahl is another great option. He played a huge part of the Spokane Chiefs winning the WHL championship Spokane, and will be playing in the Memorial Cup over the next week (or however long the tournament is). The NHL network will be showing a lot of games if anybody wants to do some scouting.

By volgrad1985

May 16, 2008 4:17 PM | Link to this

On the subject of “flawed statistics”, one could argue that using Lavallee, Sterling, Little, Stuart, MacKenzie, and Pavelec in consideration of percentage of players that played NHL games last year is valid as long as Craig counts the similar types of players who may have gotten very minimal time on the ice at Minnesota, Nashville, and Columbus. Theoretically, either all of these similar role players should be counted, or all of them are not. And if you do decide to not count them, what is the magical number of games that makes a player worth counting?

Basically, with statistics, you can make the numbers say whatever you wish. I’m not against the way Craig came up with a percentage…it is simple and accurate enough to make his point.

By ToF

May 16, 2008 4:20 PM | Link to this

Donna Back in the original 6 days, Montreal was allowed to have the first Francophone to preserve their french flair. This lead to them having some of the most ridiculously talented players ever. It basically gave them dynasties. Here’s a helpful link

By Waffleboy

May 16, 2008 4:31 PM | Link to this

From Proicehockey.com:

“Prior to the 1960s, there was no NHL amateur draft. The recruitment of prospects was simply a matter of first come, first served. The Montreal Canadiens ensured they were first served by establishing perhaps the greatest farm system in sports history, with junior and senior teams on the prairies, minor pro teams in the U.S. and entire leagues in Quebec. The Leafs operated a similar network in Ontario and beyond. All players signed to those teams remained the exclusive propoerty of the NHL “sponsor” team until they were released or traded. Prior to 1967, the Leafs and Canadiens held a further advantage. According to A Thinking Man’s Guide to Pro Hockey, by Gerry Eskenazi, published in 1973, each NHL franchise had exclusive rights to players within its 50-mile territorial limits.

So the Leafs and Canadiens could browse the neighbourhood rinks near Toronto and Montreal at their leisure, while the Rangers had a lock on the next great goalie from Hoboken. Most of these advantages disappeared in 1963 with the introduction of the amateur draft. But the Leafs and Canadiens continued to benefit from players developed under the old system well into the 1970s.”

Hope that helps Donna.

By Donna

May 16, 2008 4:34 PM | Link to this

ToF, Thank you so veryvery much. My boyfriend is a visitor at Habs inside/out site, and those fans there say that never happened. All they agree to is building a dynasty with the best farm system i sports. If fans would go to Habs inside/out and straighten them out, I would really appreciate it. BTW, Hopkins Hall is having a bash Sat Nite.

By Thashme

May 16, 2008 4:53 PM | Link to this

The big point that I saw from the article on ESPN is the fact that the Thrashers affiliates don’t work in conjunction with the NHL Team. There is no standard of excellence or general team philosophy between the Thrashers and the minor leagues. Guys get brought up through the system and have no idea what is expected of them until they actually get here. The team is one big cluster f@#k from top to bottom. That is the real problem. If the owners had half a brain they would hire someone from one of the successful nhl teams to help implement a similar philosophy and strategy throughout the entire organization.

By ranallo10

May 16, 2008 5:02 PM | Link to this

Custance — I agree with you regarding the choice of defenders, as I’d rather the total package (how I view Bogosian) than the NHL ready offensive defenseman (how I view Doughty). Bogosian can hit, skate well, shoot well, and play sound positional defense. Doughty is no slouch, I just feel Bogosian’s penchant for PHYSICAL play makes him the better choice for the long term.

Plus it doesn’t hurt that Bogosian has been Arturs Kulda’s linemate for the majority of this past season.

Regarding Filatov, I also agree he’s a huge wildcard. I’d personally like to see some sort of agreement made with St. Louis (the #4 pick) that would garner a late round pick (say a 3rd or further) for them to have #3 and agree NOT to draft Bogosian or Doughty (whomever is still available).

The idea being similar to the Florida deal regarding Bouwmeester and Nash, I’d love to see us squeeze as much as possible out of this valuable pick, while still acquiring the player we want (I assume a defenseman). Filatov being a wild card could be important in that working, as it could allow Waddell to maneuver into a 4/5 slot if he’s not sold on a defenseman and take Filatov while acquiring more picks in later rounds.

Filatov is making it known he wants to play in North America, and that he’s a solid pick regardless of when he’s taken, but don’t get me wrong, Bogosian is my choice at this point…I’m just putting it out there that it’s POSSIBLE to get some assets out of this pick beyond a top 3 prospect, and a strong draft like this is the perfect time to do it.

But for simplification purposes, Bogosian is my pick at the top of the first round, and Toews/Staal is my choice at the bottom of the first round.

Regarding Custance’s Analysis — Stats can be deciphered in a variety of ways (as volgrad1985 mentioned), but I think most people translate them to fit their opinions. Adamant Anti-Waddell people will claim that the only picks that have developed have been “can’t miss” top two picks (cough cough Stefan, Daigle cough), while the Pro-Waddell people will claim that of those players several were found in the later rounds (Exelby, Enstrom). So really it is just fuel for each side’s fire, since it’s all subjective how you use the statistics.

Jim — I would argue that players like Rhodes and Maracle were not the types of players that Waddell expected to guide the team to greatness, but rather the fill-ins with potential that would be hold-overs during the building years. Financial support from the owner (Turner at the time) was such that higher priced players like Audette, Brunette, etc didn’t fit into the financial plans of the team. Of course the decision maker (Waddell) is the easy scape-goat, but I’d argue that the pressure was from higher up for him NOT to re-sign players in an effort to continue building a team.

Waddell hasn’t built a overly competitive team after 9 years, I agree there. I’m simply saying that the early years are not good examples of poor management, since he was being paid to keep overhead low in an effort to BUILD a franchise.

There’s a reason two ownership groups liked Waddell, and I’d contend it’s due to his ability to field a team within their budgetary constrictions

By Sage of Bluesland

May 16, 2008 5:22 PM | Link to this

How many playoff wins has our bumbling Donny’s drafting netted us during the near decade he’s been here?

There’s your answer.

(Columbus’ gap-toothed buffoon of a GM, whose name escapes me, also has the same number of playoff wins to his credit with an expansion team as our bumbling, lispy blustering Donny…The difference? They, rightly, held him accountable…)

By Donna

May 16, 2008 6:06 PM | Link to this

ToF, Montreal fans are saying that territorial rights was an abberation for a few years, its what they did woth the extra players that made them so good. Agreed.

By The Falconer

May 16, 2008 6:39 PM | Link to this

Yay for a data informed discussion!

No matter which method you use the Thrashers drafting and development is average. If you weight picks, if you don’t weight picks, if you use NHL games played, if you percentage of draft picks that reach the NHL, etc. It all shows roughly the same thing—the team isn’t the best nor is it the worst—they are merely average.

What does this mean then? It means that the Thrashers problems are caused by something else. I have said again and again that is primarily free agency that is the source of the problem.

The Thrashers have gotten a poor return on the money they spent on free agents. Eric Perrin, Glen Metropolit and Jon Sim are the three best unrestricted free agents we have signed—they were worth far more than we paid them—the problem is that list of overpaid free agents is much much longer: Modry, Rucchin, Holik, Kozlov, White, etc.

The Holik contract in particular has absolutely hamstrung a club that needed to sign an offensive centerman but couldn’t afford one while paying their 3rd line center $4.25 million a season.

The Kozlov deal given to a 35 year old guy could end up being almost as bad as he is making close to $4 million a season for three years.

If you played Brett Sterling at LW and gave him the same ice time that Slava Kozlov had last season on the power play and at even strength he probably would have have put up 35 points at the cost of less than $1 million while Kozlov put up 40 points at the price of nearly $4 million. Which one is the most cost effective option?

By Tony C.

May 16, 2008 7:20 PM | Link to this

I’m with Craig, I say get Bogosian-let LA have Doughty, Bogosian shows me a bit more snarl. I’m VERY leery of taking Filatov without a TA in place PRIOR to his selection. Also, I think we should go after the last Staal brother…all of the rest of them agree that he is the most talented of all of them-and he is a “natural” RW-a position we’re thin at.

I can see the argument for Filatov-We’ll need another socring left winger in a couple of years, but I think we can find someone else. Defence is a challenge area-Bogosian and/or Doughty or Petrangelo will help address this need. I’d also like to see us pick up RW and LW prospects with our 2nd ast-ropund pick and the next highest pick we have. Then a pivot, and a Finnish/French-Canadian goalie. The balance of picks should be Defenders and wingers.

But hey that’s me.

Also, the more I think about DeBoers, the more I see the method to the madness-he’s very familiar with the actual skillsets of most of the junior players available in this year’s draft, and has shown good-to-great results with player development. Now he says he’d prefer to be Coaching at the NHL level rather than a front-office position-I’m leery but hey, you don’t have to be a former Cup-winner to be successful (it does help the guy who has two rings already to pay attention to you)…

That being said, I’d love it if Chicago let Cheylavdof(spl?) come down and work with DW.

But I doubt that’s happening.

I’d liuke to see DW make a serious run @ Hainsey and John Liles for blueline FA additions…as far as FA forwards (and let’s not kid ourselves, bringing Recchi back @ RW and expecting he and Army to replace Hossa’s #’s is a sick joke at best); let’s look at Vrbata-yes lots of question marks, but I think we’d all agree that #17 works best when he has the room that another credible scoring threat creates when they are out on the ice with him…we saw how well things went when Thorburn was moved up to create space for #17.

I think the big question mark in regards to FA signings @ forward is Esposito-remember that this kid was VERY highly touted and it wasn’t until he and his coaches soured on each other that his stock fell. For what it’s worth John Anderson in Chicago had very positive things to say in regards to Esposito’s ability and overall game.

By 12345

May 16, 2008 7:32 PM | Link to this

Mellenby does not like the direction of the Thrashers.

Hossa does not like the direction of the Thrashers.

Ilya K. does not like the direction of the Thrashers and calls for changes.

So far NO CHANGES.

Same old Waddell, same owners and the results will be more losing and losing our star player, losing the fan base and losing , losing, losing…

The owners of this team need to get out.

What do YOU the fan think ?

How can we trust them ?

How do we feel any progress will be made as long as we have to continue endure the GM we have… Esp when much better more qualified people are out there and ready to go.

GaVa… Saw your comments on Nonis and his drafting, while not too impressive, remember he had lower picks than we did, so kinda of an even or.

By Donna

May 16, 2008 7:36 PM | Link to this

Was Heatley traded for Hossa even up, and did his accident make it necessary fir us to trade him?

By Tony C.

May 16, 2008 7:44 PM | Link to this

Falconer

Spot on about the FA pick ups. For me, DW’s credibility took a body blow that was a precursor of things to come when he signed one Uwe Krupp as a “much-needed veteran presence on the blueline[sic]”. Ever since then, it’s been craptacular.

The Holik signing I was a fan of at the time…Holik was the prototypical type of centreman we didn’t have-a big, shutdown C who plays on the nasty side of things.

Now as far as how the financials have hamstrung this team-there’s no denying it. But to then go out and Sign Steve Rucchin (essentially the same “type” as Holik) the following season made zero sense to me. I believe it was then that I began my DW-bashing in heartfelt earnestness.

By The Falconer

May 16, 2008 8:00 PM | Link to this

Tony C: I had less of an issue with giving Krupp a look. Honestly that Thrashers team was going nowhere so why not take a chance on Krupp? If Krupp was healthy and played we could have flipped him at the trade deadline for a decent prospect or a draft pick.

When you’re an expansion team you take a look at long shots. What bothers me most about the expansion era is why we didn’t give Brett Clark/Mike Weaver/Kurtis Foster/Brian Pothier more a chance while Trembly continued to get chance after chance and failed year after year at the NHL level. Trembly got 4 seasons—I knew after 2 he wasn’t going to be a sold NHLer on a playoff quality team.

By Tony C.

May 16, 2008 8:45 PM | Link to this

Falconer-

Granted. I just wasn’t for it. Especially with the players you mentioned (among others) being spurned in favor of an officially over-the-hill guy who was coming off of big-time surgery.

I just really haven’t liked his FA signings in general. Ray Ferraro & Mellanby being notable exceptions-I would think that when aquiring a veteran, the idea would be for him to play alongside, and mentor to, the youngsters you’re building your team with (a’la D. Hatcher & Coburn in Philly).

By Tony C

May 16, 2008 10:10 PM | Link to this

mE GUSTO LS MUCHACHOS CON GRANDES CULOS.

By Brendan

May 17, 2008 12:19 AM | Link to this

Good discussions so far, gang. I’ve particularly enjoyed Falconer’s comments. I’d just add this … (1) drafting is an inexact science—sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you don’t. And sometimes you missed the boat entirely. (2) the “measure” of successful GM/Scouting Dept. is to take 3-5 years worth of draft history and see how many players selected 15th and beyond turned into something “substantial.” Substantial is a matter of interpretation. But I’d say … if the player you selected 15th or later made your roster out of training camp for 3 or more consecutive years, you were “successful” on that draft day. (3) “Rule of thumb”: Generally speaking, picks #1-10 are “solid prospects.” Picks #11-#30 are a “crapshoot.” Pick #31 and beyond is a “shot in the dark.” (4) Despite those long odds, some GMs/Scouts not only do very well, but consistently well. (5) Being in love with a player is very, very different from being in ‘like’ with him.

What does that mean??? It means if you hold a “mediocre” draft position and there are a half-dozen players that could fulfill your “wish list,” but you’re not enamored with any particular one of them, you should consider trading down, within reasonable parameters.

Say you hold the #24 overall pick. And your “wish list” includes a winger with speed and grit. And there are still 5-7 “crapshoot” players left that seem to fit that bill. The team picking at #28 asks you to swap positions, while offering up their other 2nd round pick, previously acquired some trade, at #36. Take the deal, provided you feel you haven’t really lost any quality by waiting four more slots. And this way, you get two shots at fulfilling your wish list, at #28 and #36—as opposed to #24 and #54. Now, you’ll draft at #28, #36, and #54. This is precisely where your scouting dept. earns it money. And if a player or two makes the roster from #28, #36, and #54—and that player makes your roster for three straight years, (somewhere down the road,) you did well. And if that player turns into a Tier I player, you did exceptionally well!!! You’re really not supposed to find a Tier I guy after the 30th pick in a draft. But it certainly happens. Brad Richards won a Conn Smythe Trophy and a Cup. He was picked 64th overall in 1998.

I’ve always said … that I’d be willing to listen to Waddell’s side of things, when dealing with Ted Turner, AOL-Time Warner, and the Atlanta Spirit, LLC. But ultimately, Waddell is the ONE INDIVIDUAL principally charged with building the franchise. Though Waddell may draft the talent, the coaching staff has to develop it. And Waddell picks the coaching staff. It is what it is. If egregious ownership “handcuffed” Waddell, he could have quit, citing that as the reason he’d had enough. But he seems perfectly willing to go along with whatever and whichever ownership is in charge, never uttering a “peep” of criticism directed at the ownership. If Waddell were truly unhappy, he certainly could have used his vast contacts to find another “arrangement” or situation, SOMEWHERE in the league.

By Tony C.

May 17, 2008 2:29 AM | Link to this

Now that was a Brendan post!

By ranallo10

May 17, 2008 3:16 AM | Link to this

Cushy job, owners who love you, a good paycheck…he’s already got a ring as an Assistant GM in Detroit, why wouldn’t he be content with appeasing the owners and lining his pockets while in Atlanta?

Do you over exert yourself at work EVERY DAY, or do you do just enough not to get fired? Some people have different business personalities. Some do what their bosses expect of them, others stretch the limits of their bosses by oft challenging them, while others slack off until getting a wake up call.

To assume that Waddell should just quit is a broad assumption, and doesn’t take into account that perhaps he’s HAPPY knowing he can field a one-time playoff caliber team on a shoe-string budget with possibly the worst ownership group in the NHL. Perhaps he also knows this is his ONLY shot at a GM position in the NHL, or perhaps he LOVES the city of Atlanta and doesn’t want to leave.

Or perhaps he’s simply delusional and feels the team is headed in “the right direction” and only needs a few tweaks. Oh wait…that’s the ownership.

Tony C. — Krupp was definitely a veteran defender that COULD have helped this roster (how many rings did he have from his Detroit and Colorado days?), but ultimately did not pan out. I can’t blame Waddell for trying, because at the time my inner Red Wing fan was happy to see a physical presence come to this team from a championship roster.

Rucchin has continued to confound me, as I don’t understand the TRUE role he could’ve played here. Yes, Waddell and Hartley said Holik would play first two line minutes, opening a spot at the third for Rucchin, but in reality Rucchin played 1st line next to Kovalchuk, and didn’t really help this club.

I hated it for Rucchin’s sake, but that injury did nothing but help this team in my honest opinion. His salary was off the books (insurance), his spot was opened for someone else, and we didn’t have to watch someone who was actually SLOWER than Holik on the ice. But I hope he gets better, I never wish a career ending injury upon a person.

White made some sense, he’s a long-term role player, and with his contract and point production could easily be flipped to a contender needing a two-way center.

Anyways, I don’t need to get into every pick (good or bad) by Waddell’s as a GM, but one of the things to remember is that not many Tier I players have admitted BEING INTERESTED in playing in Atlanta. Many will blame Waddell for that, but I contend it’s the nature of having a team in a non-hockey market. Columbus’s biggest UFA acquisitions are Sergei Federov, Adam Foote and Michael Peca (who couldn’t sign with any other team). Other teams have the same problem, and those teams have gone through multiple GMs yet haven’t righted their ship appropriately.

I don’t feel that a simple change of GM will do anything substantial for this team, but rather a change in the ownerships active business model would bring about the desired changes.

By Dave

May 17, 2008 11:49 AM | Link to this

CC,

I agree with those that have stated that looking only at the stats can give you a misleading picture. As a Preds fan for years I was not surprised to see their percentage lower that the Thrashers. This is due, at least in part, that as a playoff team for the past few years the Preds have had the luxury of time to let their draft picks develop.

The fact a large percentage of pic have not made it to the bigs yet is not necessarily an indictment of an organization. I don’t know of anyone in hockey that would trade the Preds minor league system for Atlanta’s and I know that I would not trade David Poile for DW.

Dave Preds fan in Nashville

By Donna

May 17, 2008 12:43 PM | Link to this

TSN reports this afternoon that Don Lever has been approached by the Thrashers organization for a coaching position. He led a team called the Hamilton Bulldogs to a Calder Cup championship last year. All interested an a party closing out the college year, we are having a bash at GT tonight at Hopkins Hall. All invited.

By Brendan

May 17, 2008 1:32 PM | Link to this

I’ve spent years trying to figure out what Don Waddell thinks. It doesn’t get me anywhere. I just try to enjoy the Thrashers as much as I can.

Ownership needs to change its business philosophy for the team to be able to seriously contend for a Cup. Changing GMs can and probably will bring forth overall improvements. But when push comes to shove, it’s not the GM’s money that retains a Tier I player, it’s the owners’. A GM might be perfectly willing to offer 5-10 years at something close to league maximum for certain players, but without the blessings of ownership, that player can, and perhaps will “walk.”

But it’s not just one player. It’s a team mood. When players sense that the team isn’t going anywhere, no matter the reason, they start plotting exit strategies. They start to ask themselves questions like this one: “Sure they can keep me, but what about my linemates? In three years, they’ll be gone. And with it, our chance at winning a Cup. Is our ownership committed to keeping them? Or, at a minimum, finding me suitable replacements? What about the coaching? What about the GM position? If the players feel like EITHER coach or the GM is no good, and won’t be replaced, they think about leaving. And there it is. Players want to win. And they want to get paid what the market will bear.

Even I want “me” to shut up about Kovalchuk. But if he’s gone—said another way, “he’s merely playing out his contract until 2010,” and L.A. were interested in trading the #2 overall pick for him, or anyone else, it’s something that has to be at least considered. No matter how unpopular, how potentially devastating and crippling it might be. Would it be any LESS crippling two years from now??? The day when Ilya is no longer a Thrasher will be a SAD DAY. No matter when that happens. If it’s now. Or two years from now. Or the February 2010 trade deadline. Or when Ilya retires in 2021. We all hope for the that last choice.

It’s in the ASG’s hands. They will decide if they’ll commit to making the moves that Kovalchuk sees as necessary to win the Cup. Those moves include: (1) Finding a Tier I Center for his line, (2) Spending considerably closer to the cap on a annual basis, (3) Addressing the GM and coaching positions to conform to a “vision” acceptable to Kovalchuk, and (4) locking him up for as long as he wants, at a price that is at least equal to Ovechkin’s.

If the answer to ANY of the above is “no,” then Kovalchuk is probably gone. Wellllll. Be honest. Do you get that “warm, fuzzy” feeling inside that the ASG is on the verge of agreeing to doing all of that?? I don’t. I view Kovalchuk as “essentially” gone. Oh, he’ll play out his contract. All the while, it’ll be a source of distraction and acrimony, leading to more and more talk about the “direction of the team,” “player retention,” and “business models.” Don’t say I didn’t tell you.

By Brendan

May 17, 2008 3:04 PM | Link to this

I,ve spent mant lonely nights without a date trying to figure Waddell out. Is he for real, a magician of all that is impractical. Does he have total recall off all things imaginary? Will he be a leader or a follower, like me, a whimp. Does he shave IT, groom IT, tOAST it? mY PHILOSOPHY ON THE tHRASH CAN.

By Sara

May 17, 2008 10:07 PM | Link to this

Brendan (the real one, not the tard from 3:04PM)…I would submit that Waddell will not up and quit for one simple reason…he loves this team. He was there at the beginning and ever since then, kind of like a dad. He has some emotional ties to the team via events like the Snyder/Heatley tragedy and his relationship with Kovy. I would never ever doubt that Don tries to do what is best for this franchise. Form whatever opinions one wants about his abilities, but I strongly recommend never questioning his heart and motives. Those are pure.

By Brendan

May 17, 2008 10:48 PM | Link to this

I agree that Waddell is trying his “level best.” And always has. And I agree that Don seems to like to Atlanta. And I’d agree that Don wants to stay in Atlanta. I’d further add, that he is willing to stay … under virtually ANY conditions. If the ownership said, “From now on, Don, you have to perform your GM duties with shoestrings on each foot tied together, and you must keep your left arm tied behind your back at all times. You are only allowed to breathe through your nose. And oh yes, one more thing. You’re now required to wear an “eye patch.” And for each instance we find you NOT wearing the eye patch, it’s a $1,000 fine. Don would say, “Okay.” Because he loves this franchise that much. I’m just waiting for Don to snap and go postal on all their a*******e$. But what would be far better than that, would be for Don to calmly and rationally sit down with the ownership and explain to them why their business model won’t work, in terms of winning the Stanley Cup. And see what fruit, if any, that approach yields from the vine.

I would never say … “Don’s trying to fail. He’s doing it DELIBERATELY.” That’s insanity. He’s fighting an uphill battle enough as it is. The “Atlanta gig” won’t be EASY for any GM. There are cashflow obstacles. There’s serious competition for entertainment dollars, etc. The next GM, if there ever is one, has to win. Period, the end. Wins, in this town, put the fannies in the seats. And that puts the moola in the owners’ pockets.

By Tony C.

May 18, 2008 3:03 PM | Link to this

Hey you got a link for the Don Lever story???

By B. Thenet

May 18, 2008 3:55 PM | Link to this

Kovalchuk scores the last 2 goals of the game to lead Russia to the World Championship, his only two goals of the tourney.

By GaVaHokie

May 19, 2008 8:40 AM | Link to this

GaVa… Saw your comments on Nonis and his drafting, while not too impressive, remember he had lower picks than we did, so kinda of an even or.

Neither has Detroit, but their results speak pretty loudly. Of course, Detroit is the exception. I don’t hold bad drafting against anybody… it’s a crapshoot.

By earl

May 19, 2008 9:49 AM | Link to this

CC - I may have missed it, but didn’t see where you evaluated the Thrashers or DW’s draft record against any of the established (non-expansion)teams such as Det, Pit, etc.

Also some of the guys mentioned we’re 3rd-4th line guys who were picked at the top of the draft. For all the high picks we’ve gotten seems like very few have panned out, any idea as to how we’ve done in relation to other teams?

By John Anderson

May 19, 2008 10:58 AM | Link to this

Has anyone thought that DW is waiting for the Chicago Wolves season to end before we announce that John Anderson is our next coach? Think about it…

By Brendan

May 19, 2008 11:54 AM | Link to this

I’m actually in favor of waiting to find a coach. Hear me out. Why not select from the best pool of candidates? … before we “settle” on whatever it is that we can get.

Ummn, there’s another reason, too. What if Don Waddell doesn’t return as GM next season? I know. I know. The ownership has spoken on this matter. They say Don will return. But, just for argument’s sake, let’s say he takes Bernie Mullin’s old job as ASG President. Okay … Why hire a coach BEFORE you hire a General Manager??? Exactly, you wouldn’t. You’d hire the GM first. Then let the GM make the most important decision a GM ever makes: Hiring his Head Coach.

… If that’s what’s in the works … I’m ALL TOO HAPPY to keep on waiting and waiting and waiting … so that we can get a new GM installed, who will then select our next Head Coach.

By GaVaHokie

May 19, 2008 12:02 PM | Link to this

I believe the “low profile” interviewing that Waddell is doing is so he can ask Ron Wilson if he wants the job, and when he says “hell no”, then no one’s the wiser… and then, when Waddell offers jobs to Anderson, DeBoers, Gordon, etc, it won’t feel like they were second fiddle to Ron Wilson.

Ron Wilson won’t look like an a***** to Atlanta fans for saying “no”, and Waddell can say “We liked DeBoers right from the start. We approached him last year about our vacancy…” yada yada.

Sage and LAC would call that spinning… but I say that’s how you maintain a good reputation among the league’s elite GM’s, coaches and players.

“I’m not going to throw you under the bus for saying no.”

By TURBO

May 19, 2008 12:03 PM | Link to this

Waddell has not produced a playoff team but only once in his tenure. I think it is safe to say that we need to quit looking at the coaches as issues and start looking at him. He has done a good job her in Atlanta, but quite frankly I want more. I think Waddell’s days are over and we need some new blood!

By Craig Custance

May 19, 2008 12:20 PM | Link to this

earl: I was trying to find teams that compared to the Thrashers in terms of market, longevity, etc. Apples, to apples.

By Craig Custance

May 19, 2008 12:23 PM | Link to this

John Anderson: Maybe you’re right. Anybody noticing how well Pavelec is doing in the AHL playoffs? He has the most playoff wins (10) and his GAA is 2.05 with a .932 save percentage. Not bad.

By TRON

May 19, 2008 2:17 PM | Link to this

YES CRAIG, PAVELEC IS READY………. TIME TO TRADE LETEMIN TO LA KINGS FOR #2 PICK……….. GRAB 2 BEST D-MEN IN DRAFT……………..

By Lanny McDonald

May 19, 2008 2:19 PM | Link to this

I’d take the Filatov kid. Have #17 convince him to come here.

By GaVaHokie

May 19, 2008 2:40 PM | Link to this

YES CRAIG, PAVELEC IS READY………. TIME TO TRADE LETEMIN TO LA KINGS FOR #2 PICK……….. GRAB 2 BEST D-MEN IN DRAFT……………..

Lehtonen is not enough to get the #2 pick from LA. I say resign Kari, he’s much more valuable under contract. Play him and Pavelec next season, trade one of them at the March deadline.

By TRON

May 19, 2008 2:52 PM | Link to this

Lehtonen is not enough to get the #2 pick from LA. I say resign Kari, he’s much more valuable under contract. Play him and Pavelec next season, trade one of them at the March deadline.

YOU RIGHT…….. TRADE LETEMIN AND SLATER FOR #2 PICK………. PAVELEC WILL NOT BE TRADED………… YOUR IMMATURE FINNISH STREET PUNK, HOWEVER, WILL…………..

By Tony C.

May 19, 2008 3:48 PM | Link to this

they have street punks in finland?

sweet!!!! now I can daydream about leggy valkyrie punkrawk chicks with funny-cute accents….before it was always about leggy valkyries in fur outfits…

P.S. Look at KL’s avg. Shots-Against per game and then look at the other guys you’d think of when you hear the phrase “Franchise goalie taken in the first round”…betcha his SV% is better. Granted, he needs to work on focus, but what 24/25 year old guy doesn’t?

By GaVaHokie

May 19, 2008 4:46 PM | Link to this

I don’t know… I’m thinking Filatov is a bust and not worth pacing on sure-fire defensive prospects. I’m just watching this video comparing it to his highlight reels and noticing he relies on certain moves to the net. There are no replays in this video, so you’ll notice the move right away I think he’s gonna get crosschecked into Hell at the NHL level.

By Cracker

May 19, 2008 4:53 PM | Link to this

Eurotrash is Eurotrash, no matter what country it is in…

By GaVaHokie

May 19, 2008 4:56 PM | Link to this

pacing=passing… sorry

By Tony C.

May 19, 2008 5:23 PM | Link to this

I don’t about him being a bust, but I haven’t seen anything that makes me prefer Filatov to Bogosian. Or Doughty.

Of the three, I’m hoping we get Bogsian. I would not be upset if we took Pietrangelo either-or Luke Schenn for that matter…Schenn projects as a big nasty shut-down type defender we’ve never really had.

By ranallo10

May 19, 2008 5:26 PM | Link to this

I’m thinking Filatov is a bust

If you notice how many of his highlight reel plays don’t always end up as goals, but yet are pretty, I can understand where you’re going with this. However, he’s young, you’re drafting based on his athleticism, creativity (not just his dekes), and his overall ability compared to his contemporaries. I would agree that he seems to rely on specific types of moves or plays, but is that much different than Spin-o-Rama Sid, or Left-Right-Left Kovalchuk?

Filatov is a dynamic player, but I too wouldn’t pass on Bogosian or Doughty for him. However, if I were to choose between Pietrangelo and Filatov, I’d likely take Filatov.

By B. Thenet

May 19, 2008 5:41 PM | Link to this

Look what having awesome wingers has done for the Thrashers over the past couple of years?

If Filatov was a C I might consider him, but there are too many great defenseman in the Top 10 of this draft to pass on one.

By NASCAR Dave

May 19, 2008 6:29 PM | Link to this

Don FRAUDell been FIRED yet???

Is he DONE Waddell yet???

Has our Goalie been re-signed yet???

Do we have a COACH yet???

Where is our new GM??? Why is he not here yet???

Do we have a direction yet???

WTF is going on with ATLANTA STUPID GROUP???

NUFF SAID.

By David

May 19, 2008 8:38 PM | Link to this

Don FRAUDell been FIRED yet??? No, and he won’t be.

Is he DONE Waddell yet??? This isn’t even a complete question. So the answer is no.

Has our Goalie been re-signed yet??? No, and there’s no hurry.

Do we have a COACH yet??? Obviously not. You won’t see a coach hired probably until after the AHL playoff end.

Where is our new GM??? Why is he not here yet??? DW is our GM until they decide he isn’t.

Do we have a direction yet??? It’s still the 2007-2008 season. Just sit back and enjoy the playoffs.

WTF is going on with ATLANTA STUPID GROUP??? Less caps lock, more intelligent thoughts.

*NUFF SAID. * Yes, Nascar is still boring.

By Remie

May 19, 2008 9:38 PM | Link to this

So right, David! NASCAR is boring and trite. He vilifies individuals, spews rage and hate, and never adds anything of value to the blogs. He needs to increase his medication and get a life and leave blogging to those who actually have a brain.

By Brendan

May 19, 2008 11:10 PM | Link to this

It’s official. It’s Detroit vs. Pittsburgh. Gary Bettman is probably quite pleased. Apparently, according to “NHL Live,” a radio segment that also airs on NHL TV, the TV ratings did well over the weekend’s matinee games.

Detroit is arguably the league’s ‘most visible’ market. And the league’s ‘most visible’ star just may be Sidney Crosby. So? So, it’s all pretty good to have Crosby in the “showcase event” against what has been the league’s most dominant team since 1993.

Here’s to hoping the Stanley Cup Finals do well in the TV ratings! Maybe ESPN could get interested in carrying games once more? I think I heard that NBC extended its contract with the NHL.

Detroit is 10-12 in the Cup Finals. The Penguins are 2-0 in the Cup Finals. Good luck to both teams. I don’t think it much matters if Atlanta’s pick, via Pittsburgh, is at #29 or #30. If you think it DOES, then root for Detroit to win.

By Janet

May 20, 2008 6:56 AM | Link to this

Craig- thanks for the analysis, but if we want the Thrashers to actually be competitive in the playoffs long term, we need to compare DWs draft picks as well as his UFA signings in comparison to teams who succeed, eg, NJ Devils, Detroit etc. Quite frankly strategy is important, he has not faired well there. Also it isn’t just first round picks, the better teams are highly successful in eyeing talent in the later rounds where distinguishing it is a bit more difficult.

By GaVaHokie

May 20, 2008 8:49 AM | Link to this

I would agree that he seems to rely on specific types of moves or plays, but is that much different than Spin-o-Rama Sid, or Left-Right-Left Kovalchuk?

True, but those two guys aren’t 5’10” 165 lbs. Filatov also doesn’t play in an overly physical environment. That’s why I like Tyler Ennis. He’s the same size, same skill set and plays in a league where guys destroy each other… Derek Boogaard played for Medicine Hat.

Watch this Medicine Hat game footage, and tell me who’s getting more NHL realistic experience. Tyler Ennis gets the first goal of the game.

By Draft Dandy

May 20, 2008 9:07 AM | Link to this

Pavelec was the Thrashers first second-round pick to make it to the NHL

Not so fast, Craig. Luke Sellars played one game for the Thrashers before fading into obscurity. All in all, though, this was a good blog. Don Waddell is not a bad drafter. His free agent signings (and non-signings) are very suspect however.

By Mark

May 20, 2008 11:02 AM | Link to this

I find it hard to beleive that people would be suggesting we take Filitov when there is no russion transfer agreement in place and more importantly the Thrashers are very week on Defense and this is a very heavy defense draft. I would think that after watching the Thrashers for years people would understand that you can’t score if you can’t get the puck out of your own end and you can’t transition the puck from defense to offense. Quick question, how many times did the Thrashers get outshot last season? Why do you think that was?

Stamkos will be gone and one of Doughty and Bogosian will probably be gone too. We take whoever of those two is left. If Waddell takes the Russion he should be fired on the spot.